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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1991

Conditional Probability And The Sparse Distributed Memory

Report presents conditional-probability interpretation of Kanerva's sparse distributed memory (SDM). SDM is conceptual digital electronic memory in which addresses chosen sparsely in space of many dimensions and content of memory at each address positive or negative integer written (incremented or decremented) or read according to special rules. Contents of SDM constitute Monte Carlo approximation to multidimensional conditional-probability integral.

Anderson, Charles H.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for select space propulsion system components

The fourth year of technical developments on the Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) system for Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods is summarized. The effort focused on the continued expansion of the Probabilistic Finite Element Method (PFEM) code, the implementation of the Probabilistic Boundary Element Method (PBEM), and the implementation of the Probabilistic Approximate Methods (PAppM) code. The principal focus for the PFEM code is the addition of a multilevel structural dynamics capability. The strategy includes probabilistic loads, treatment of material, geometry uncertainty, and full probabilistic variables. Enhancements are included for the Fast Probability Integration (FPI) algorithms and the addition of Monte Carlo simulation as an alternate. Work on the expert system and boundary element developments continues. The enhanced capability in the computer codes is validated by applications to a turbine blade and to an oxidizer duct.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2004

Multivariate Error Covariance Estimates by Monte-Carlo Simulation for Assimilation Studies in the Pacific Ocean

One of the most difficult aspects of ocean state estimation is the prescription of the model forecast error covariances. The paucity of ocean observations limits our ability to estimate the covariance structures from model-observation differences. In most practical applications, simple covariances are usually prescribed. Rarely are cross-covariances between different model variables used. Here a comparison is made between a univariate Optimal Interpolation (UOI) scheme and a multivariate OI algorithm (MvOI) in the assimilation of ocean temperature. In the UOI case only temperature is updated using a Gaussian covariance function and in the MvOI salinity, zonal and meridional velocities as well as temperature, are updated using an empirically estimated multivariate covariance matrix. Earlier studies have shown that a univariate OI has a detrimental effect on the salinity and velocity fields of the model. Apparently, in a sequential framework it is important to analyze temperature and salinity together. For the MvOI an estimation of the model error statistics is made by Monte-Carlo techniques from an ensemble of model integrations. An important advantage of using an ensemble of ocean states is that it provides a natural way to estimate cross-covariances between the fields of different physical variables constituting the model state vector, at the same time incorporating the model's dynamical and thermodynamical constraints as well as the effects of physical boundaries. Only temperature observations from the Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array have been assimilated in this study. In order to investigate the efficacy of the multivariate scheme two data assimilation experiments are validated with a large independent set of recently published subsurface observations of salinity, zonal velocity and temperature. For reference, a third control run with no data assimilation is used to check how the data assimilation affects systematic model errors. While the performance of the UOI and MvOI is similar with respect to the temperature field, the salinity and velocity fields are greatly improved when multivariate correction is used, as evident from the analyses of the rms differences of these fields and independent observations. The MvOI assimilation is found to improve upon the control run in generating the water masses with properties close to the observed, while the UOI failed to maintain the temperature and salinity structure.

Borovikov, Anna↗
NASA NTRS2006

Realistic Covariance Prediction for the Earth Science Constellation

Routine satellite operations for the Earth Science Constellation (ESC) include collision risk assessment between members of the constellation and other orbiting space objects. One component of the risk assessment process is computing the collision probability between two space objects. The collision probability is computed using Monte Carlo techniques as well as by numerically integrating relative state probability density functions. Each algorithm takes as inputs state vector and state vector uncertainty information for both objects. The state vector uncertainty information is expressed in terms of a covariance matrix. The collision probability computation is only as good as the inputs. Therefore, to obtain a collision calculation that is a useful decision-making metric, realistic covariance matrices must be used as inputs to the calculation. This paper describes the process used by the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center's Earth Science Mission Operations Project to generate realistic covariance predictions for three of the Earth Science Constellation satellites: Aqua, Aura and Terra.

Duncan, Matthew↗
NASA NTRS2008

Ares I Flight Control System Overview

This paper describes the control challenges posed by the Ares I vehicle, the flight control system design and performance analyses used to test and verify the design. The major challenges in developing the control system are structural dynamics, dynamic effects from the powerful first stage booster, aerodynamics, first stage separation and large uncertainties in the dynamic models for all these. Classical control techniques were employed using innovative methods for structural mode filter design and an anti-drift feature to compensate for translational and rotational disturbances. This design was coded into an integrated vehicle flight simulation and tested by Monte Carlo methods. The product of this effort is a linear, robust controller design that is easy to implement, verify and test.

Hall, Charles↗
DOE OSTI2022

Calculation of neutron flux spectra of the VVER-1000 mock-up shielding benchmark with Monte Carlo code MCS utilizing mesh-based weight window

The measurements of neutron spectra compiled inside the NEA-1517/82 package from the Shielding Integral Benchmark Archive and Database (SINBAD) are chosen as benchmark cases to validate the variance reduction technique based on weight window in Monte Carlo Code MCS. A full 3D model for fixed source mode calculation with hexagonal lattice source definition is developed to simulate total of 6 points of measurements at the vicinity of the reactor and the reactor pressure vessel region. A code/code comparison against MCNP6 code is first conducted as verification element for the mesh-based weight window capability in MCS. Finally, the validation results are presented against measurements. The verification against MCNP6 code gives good agreement in addition of the insight to the importance of user understanding to determine proper reference point and reference lower weight bound for scaling which is not required in MCS code due to its capability of automatic scaling. The comparison of neutron spectra between MCS and measurements shows good agreement within 3 standard deviations for all of six detector positions.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Unraveling design principles of protein landscapes in photosynthetic membranes in plant chloroplasts

The supramolecular organization of proteins within photosynthetic membranes is crucial for energy conversion in plants. Here, we introduce an analytical and computational pipeline that integrates high-resolution cryo–scanning electron microscopy, biochemical quantification, advanced Monte Carlo computer simulations, and statistical methods to elucidate the elusive protein landscapes of grana membranes in intact Arabidopsis leaves. Our integrated analysis challenges the prevailing view that particles on the exoplasmic fracture faces in freeze-fracture samples represent photosystem II exclusively. Instead, these particles also include cytochrome b 6 f complexes. Furthermore, our steric clash analysis demonstrates that stacked membranes contain a mixture of larger PSII supercomplexes (C 2 S 2 M 2 and C 2 S 2 ) in addition to a smaller complex (C 2 ). This suggests that in vivo PSII supercomplexes exist in an equilibrium distribution of differing sizes. Furthermore, we discovered that, although size exclusion effects govern the global protein arrangement, local packing exhibits orientational order indicative of lateral attractive protein-protein interactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Expected ${\boldsymbol H \xrightarrow{} {\boldsymbol{\mu^+\mu^-}}} $ measurement precision with ${\boldsymbol { e^{+}e^{-}}{\bf \xrightarrow{}}{ \boldsymbol{Z(q\bar{q})H}}}$ production at the CEPC *

Here, a search for the dimuon decay of the Standard Model Higgs boson is performed using Monte Carlo simulated events to mimic data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5.6 ab -1 collected with the Circular Electron-Positron Collider detector in e + e - collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ =240 GeV. This study investigates the e + e - →ZH, Z → $q\bar{q}$, H → μ + μ - process, and the expected significance considering only the statistical uncertainty in the data for a background-only hypothesis for a Higgs boson with a mass of 125 GeV is found to be 6.1 σ, corresponding to a precision of 19%. The systematic impacts from the background Monte Carlo statistical fluctuations are estimated to be negligible. Moreover, the dependence of the measurement accuracy on the muon momentum resolution of the CEPC detector is investigated. It is found that the muon momentum resolution must be better than 204 MeV to discover the H →μμ process at the nominal integrated luminosity. If the resolution is 100% worse than the designed parameter, the integrated luminosity must be greater than 7.2 ab -1 to reach 5σ significance.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Convergence acceleration of Monte Carlo many-body perturbation methods by using many control variates

Herein, the use of many control variates is proposed as a method to accelerate the second- and third-order Monte Carlo (MC) many-body perturbation (MC-MP2 and MC-MP3) calculations. A control variate is an exactly integrable function that is strongly correlated or anti-correlated with the target function to be integrated by the MC method. Evaluating both integrals as well as their covariances in the same MC run, one can effect a mutual cancellation of the statistical uncertainties and biases in the MC integrations, thereby accelerating its convergence considerably. Six and thirty-six control variates, whose integrals are known a priori, are generated for MC-MP2 and MC-MP3, respectively, by systematically replacing one or more two-electron-integral vertexes of certain configurations by zero-valued overlap-integral vertexes in their Goldstone diagrams. The variances and co- variances of these control variates are computed at a marginal cost, enhancing the overall efficiency of the MC-MP2 and MC-MP3 calculations by a factor of up to 14 and 20, respectively.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimization of the Second Target Station cold source moderators using an automated workflow

The Second Target Station (STS) at the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory is designed to become the world’s highest peak-brightness spallation source of cold neutrons. Successful completion of the STS, which is currently in the preliminary design phase, will provide transformative new capabilities to examine novel materials for future technologies. At STS, neutrons will be generated by spallation reactions in a solid tungsten target. They will be moderated and thermalized in two cold (20 K) para-hydrogen moderators. Careful optimization of these moderators is essential to the project’s success. To find optimal moderator designs, an advanced optimization workflow integrates high-fidelity neutronics calculations using the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) transport code MCNP6.2 with state-of-the-art optimization algorithms in the Dakota optimization toolkit. For each design iteration, a parametrized solid CAD geometry is generated in Creo and automatically converted into an unstructured mesh geometry by Attila 4MC for the neutronics calculation with MCNP. Iterations repeat until optimal designs are found. Herein this paper presents the results of a sensitivity and optimization study for the cylindrical and tube moderators. Both moderators can be optimized for maximum peak brightness, maximum time-integrated brightness, or any combination between these extremes. Maximum peak brightness is achieved by using smaller optimal dimensions of the moderators, whereas maximum time-integrated brightness is achieved by using larger dimensions. A Pareto front details the designs that optimally balance both brightness metrics. The Pareto front can be found in only 40–110 iterations with 4–5 design parameters when using the efficient global and Pareto-set optimization algorithms in Dakota. Additionally, important engineering constraints can be taken into account, such as the coupling between the cylindrical moderator radius and aluminum vessel wall thicknesses required to ensure structural integrity of the vessels. This interaction has a significant impact on the resulting optimal designs. Our new, highly efficient, fully automated optimization workflow will be used to optimize additional STS components in the future and can be adopted for design and optimization studies at other experimental neutron and accelerator facilities.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reliability Analysis of Power Grids Considering Component Failures of Variable Energy Resources

This paper proposes an improved model for the reliability assessment of power systems considering component failures of variable energy resources (VER). The inherent intermittency of VER such as solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind farms, along with their susceptibility to component failures, present significant challenges to reliable system operation. These issues, combined with power grid operation and network constraints, complicate the reliable operation of VER-integrated power systems. Here, to address these concerns, this paper introduces a reliability assessment framework that considers VER input variability, its impact on component availability, and their resulting impact on overall system reliability. Stochastic models based on discrete Markov processes are developed to incorporate variable irradiance, wind speeds, and their effects on PV and wind component failure rates. A next-event and state transition-based approach is then developed to integrate the stochastic models into a mixed-timing sequential Monte Carlo simulation framework for composite reliability assessment. Case studies on the RTS-GMLC system demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model in evaluating the reliability of VER-integrated systems.

Pandit, Dilip [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-N↗
NASA NTRS1984

Pseudo-Random Number Generators

Package features comprehensive selection of probabilistic distributions. Monte Carlo simulations resorted to whenever systems studied not amenable to deterministic analyses or when direct experimentation not feasible. Random numbers having certain specified distribution characteristic integral part of simulations. Package consists of collector of "pseudorandom" number generators for use in Monte Carlo simulations.

Howell, L. W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Induced seismicity potential based on probabilistic geomechanics for the San Juan Basin CarbonSAFE project

Although geologic carbon sequestration projects have yet to induce — or may never induce — a damaging earthquake, experiences from other deep injection industries such as hydraulic fracturing, enhanced geothermal systems, and saltwater disposal suggest that effective quantitative seismic risk assessment is necessary for deep saline carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) projects. One such imminent CCS project is the San Juan Basin CarbonSAFE Phase III program. We use Monte Carlo probabilistic geomechanical analyses combined with observations of the geologic and operational parameters of the San Juan Basin site and suggest that this project is of low-induced seismic risk. The primary analysis is split into four sections. First, we assess the literature for faults and past seismicity, and at least five faulting scenarios are directly relevant. Second, we develop and calibrate an integrated earth model for the project site. Third, we perform Monte Carlo simulations that consider reasonable uncertainties of the geomechanical parameters. Of five tested faulting scenarios, only one presents high Coulomb failure functions, but fourth, we determine the risk to be low based on the combined lack of historical seismicity, the geologic framework of the faulting scenario, and the presence of saltwater injection at the same depth as the proposed supercritical carbon dioxide injection. The most sensitive parameters in the geomechanical calculations are the fault dip and the coefficient of friction. The least sensitive are the fault strike and the orientation of the maximum horizontal principal stress.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

ZPRD Database: ZPPR-15 Monte Carlo Results

The ZPPR-15 experiments [1] were mockups of a 330 MWe Integral Fast Reactor (IFR). The ZPPR-15 assembly consisted of a clean, two zone, approximately circular core surrounded by a thin depleted uranium (DU) blanket with sodium (Na) cooling and a thick stainless steel reflector. The ZPPR-15 program was conducted in four phases: A, B, C, and D. Each phase was marked by a particular composition of the reference assembly, with the last three being representative of the three stages of the IFR fuel cycle. This report documents all MCNP [2] runs of the ZPPR-15 loadings that were included in the ZPRD database on GitLab. In the present work, eigenvalues and associated standard deviations were computed for each ZPPR-15 loading with the use of the three data libraries (ENDF/B-VII.0 [3], ENDF/B-VII.1 [4] and ENDF/B-VIII.0 [5]). Relevant results from the obtained outputs are also discussed in this report with two main objectives: a) provide and evaluate updated calculated values with respect to previous reports, notably Refs. [6] and [7] that were based on the use of the ENDF/B-VII.0 library. b) address any change in the observed reactivity effects relevant to the analysis of the experimental data when a different data library is used (previously reported results were mostly based on the use of ENDF/B-VII.0 data only).

Aliberti, Gerardo↗
DOE OSTI2022

Monte Carlo calculations of the extraction of scintillation light from cryogenic $N$-type GaAs

We report the high scintillation luminosity of n-type GaAs at 10 °K is surprising because (1) with a refractive index of 3.5, escape is inhibited by total internal reflection and (2) narrow-beam experiments at 90 °K report infrared absorption coefficients of several per cm. This paper presents Monte Carlo calculations showing that the high luminosity at 10 °K can be explained if (1) the narrow-beam absorption is almost all optical scattering and (2) the absolute absorption coefficient is below 0.1 per cm. Sixteen surface reflector configurations are simulated for a range of internal scattering and absolute absorption coefficients, and these can guide the design of cryogenic scintillating GaAs targets for the direct detection of dark matter. The discussion section presents a possible infrared scattering mechanism based on the metallic nature of n-type GaAs. A supplement file describes (1) the Monte Carlo program steps in detail and (2) how narrow-beam and integrating sphere experiments can measure the cryogenic optical scattering and absolute absorption coefficients.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Feasibility of DEIM for retrieving the initial field via dimensionality reduction

When parameter estimation is solved in a high-dimensional space, the dimensionality reduction strategy becomes the primary consideration for alleviating the tremendous computational cost. Here, the discrete empirical interpolation method (DEIM) is explored to retrieve the initial condition (IC) by combining the polynomial chaos (PC) based ensemble Kalman filter (i.e. PC-EnKF), where a non-intrusive PC expansion is considered as a surrogate model in place of the forward model in the prediction step of the ensemble Kalman filter, resulting in fewer forward model integrations but with a comparable accuracy as Monte Carlo-based approaches. The DEIM acts as a hyper-reduction tool to provide the low-dimensional input for the high-dimensional initial field, which can be reconstructed using the information on the sparse interpolation grid points that is adaptively obtained through PC-EnKF data assimilation method. Thus an innovative framework to reconstruct the IC is developed. The detailed procedure at each assimilation iteration includes: the determination of the spatial interpolation points, the estimation of the initial values on the interpolation locations using the optimal observations, and the reconstruction of IC in the full space. The current study uses the reconstruction field of initial conditions of the Navier-Stokes equations as an example to illustrate the efficacy of our method. The experimental results demonstrate the proposed algorithm achieves a satisfactory reconstruction for the initial field. The proposed method helps to extend the applicable area of DEIM in solving inverse problems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multiscale study of helium diffusion in Ni-Cr alloys: Short-range trapping versus long-range channeling

Ni-Cr alloys are widely employed as structural materials in fast nuclear reactors but are vulnerable to high-temperature helium (He) embrittlement (HTHE) under fast neutron irradiation. A comprehensive understanding of He diffusion in Ni-Cr alloys, which governs the kinetics of HTHE, is therefore essential for developing resilient materials and preventing failure. In this work, we reveal the underlying mechanisms of He diffusion in pure Ni and Ni-Cr alloys by integrating density functional theory (DFT) with atomic kinetic Monte Carlo (AKMC) simulations. Our findings uncover a non-monotonic dependence of He diffusivity on Cr concentration, contradicting the monotonic trends predicted by DFT-parameterized theories. At low Cr concentrations, He diffusion is dominated by short-range trapping, characterized by multiple trapping sites and a distinct mechanism within the first nearest neighbor of Cr, differing from that in pure Ni. At high Cr concentrations, these local traps become interconnected, forming long-range fast diffusion channels that enhance He mobility. The competition between localized trapping and extended channeling results in a diffusivity that first decreases, then increases with rising Cr content. These atomic-scale insights offer critical guidance for the design of radiation-tolerant Ni-based alloys. Moreover, the combined DFT-AKMC methodology and the concept of random walker diffusion through interconnected energy basins present a broadly applicable framework for studying transport phenomena in disordered systems.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Toward precision cosmochronology

The continuous cooling of a white dwarf is punctuated by events that affect its cooling rate. The most significant of these events is the crystallization of its core, a phase transition that occurs once the C/O interior has cooled down below a critical temperature. This transition releases latent heat, as well as gravitational energy due to the redistribution of the C and O ions during solidification, thereby slowing down the evolution of the white dwarf. The unambiguous observational signature of core crystallization–a pile-up of objects in the cooling sequence–was recently reported. However, existing evolution models struggle to quantitatively reproduce this signature, casting doubt on their accuracy when used to measure the ages of stellar populations. The timing and amount of the energy released during crystallization depend on the exact form of the C/O phase diagram. Using the advanced Gibbs–Duhem integration method and state-of-the-art Monte Carlo simulations of the solid and liquid phases, we obtained a very accurate version of this phase diagram that allows a precise modeling of the phase transition. Despite this improvement, the magnitude of the crystallization pile-up remains underestimated by current evolution models. We conclude that latent heat release and O sedimentation alone are not sufficient to explain the observations, and that other unaccounted physical mechanisms, possibly 22 Ne phase separation, play an important role.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗