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Definitions for Testing Whether Evaluated Nuclear Data Relative Uncertainties are Realistic in Size
This document describes various tests that can be used to check whether evaluated relative uncertainties stored in nuclear-data covariances are realistic. To be more specific, these tests check whether nuclear-data uncertainties could be either over- or under-estimated given the input that usually enters the evaluation of nuclear-data mean values and covariances. Warning and error messages on the reliability of nuclear-data uncertainties will result from these tests. If uncertainties of one specific nuclear-data observable trigger warning messages from multiple tests, an evaluator should counter-check the reliability of the relative uncertainties of this particular nuclear-data covariance matrix.
Accounting for uncertainty sources in pyrometric measurements: Variables affecting Surface Temperature measurements using the LLNL Streak Spectrometers
Here we present a detailed analysis of the error sensitivities of the LLNL temperature analysis package used in analyzing streak spectrometer data. These sensitivities include noise, temperature, wavelength, emissivity, missing bands, and missing data points. The analysis package was tested for its ability to accurately reconstruct randomly generated noisy data and found to perform within specifications.
REPEATABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY STUDY OF STRAIN MEASURED ON COUPLED FLUID-STRUCTURE VESSELS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH INTENSITY PROTON PULSES
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Personalized and uncertainty-aware coronary hemodynamics simulations: From Bayesian estimation to improved multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification
Non-invasive simulations of coronary hemodynamics have improved clinical risk stratification and treatment outcomes for coronary artery disease, compared to relying on anatomical imaging alone. However, simulations typically use empirical approaches to distribute total coronary flow amongst the arteries in the coronary tree, which ignores patient variability, the presence of disease, and other clinical factors. Further, uncertainty in the clinical data often remains unaccounted for in the modeling pipeline. We present an end-to-end uncertainty-aware pipeline to (1) personalize coronary flow simulations by incorporating vessel-specific coronary flows as well as cardiac function; and (2) predict clinical and biomechanical quantities of interest with improved precision, while accounting for uncertainty in the clinical data. We assimilate patient-specific measurements of myocardial blood flow from clinical CT myocardial perfusion imaging to estimate branch-specific coronary artery flows. Simulated noise in the clinical data is used to estimate the joint posterior distributions of the model parameters using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Additionally, the posterior predictive distribution for the relevant quantities of interest is determined using a new approach combining multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation with non-linear, data-driven dimensionality reduction. This leads to improved correlations between high- and low-fidelity model outputs. Our framework accurately recapitulates clinically measured cardiac function as well as branch-specific coronary flows under measurement noise uncertainty. We observe substantial reductions in confidence intervals for estimated quantities of interest compared to single-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation and state-of-the-art multi-fidelity Monte Carlo methods. This holds especially true for quantities of interest that showed limited correlation between the low- and high-fidelity model predictions. In addition, the proposed multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimators are significantly cheaper to compute than traditional estimators, under a specified confidence level or variance. The proposed pipeline for personalized and uncertainty-aware predictions of coronary hemodynamics is based on routine clinical measurements and recently developed techniques for CT myocardial perfusion imaging. The proposed pipeline offers significant improvements in precision and reduction in computational cost.
High precision measurements of the proton elastic electromagnetic form factors and their ratio at 𝑄 2 = 0.50, 2.64, 3.20, and 4.10 GeV 2
The advent of high-intensity, high-polarization electron beams led to significantly improved measurements of the ratio of the proton’s charge to electric form factors, 𝐺 𝐸 𝑝 /𝐺 𝑀 𝑝 . However, high-𝑄 2 measurements of this ratio yielded significant disagreement with extractions based on unpolarized scattering measurements, raising questions about the reliability of the measurements and consistency of the techniques. Jefferson Lab experiment E01-001 was designed to provide a high precision extraction of 𝐺 𝐸 𝑝 /𝐺 𝑀 𝑝 from unpolarized cross-section measurements using a modified version of the Rosenbluth separation technique to allow for a more precise comparison with polarization data. Rosenbluth separations involve precise measurements of the angular dependence of the elastic 𝑒−𝑝 cross section at fixed momentum transfer, 𝑄 2 . Conventional Rosenbluth separations detect the scattered electron, requiring the comparisons of measurements with very different detected electron energy and rate for electrons at different angles. Our ‘‘super-Rosenbluth’’ measurement detected the struck proton, rather than the scattered electron to extract the elastic 𝑒−𝑝 cross section. This yielded a fixed momentum for the detected particle and dramatically reduced variation of the cross section with angle, significantly reducing rate- and momentum-dependent corrections and uncertainties. We measure the cross section vs angle with high relative precision, allowing for extremely high precision extractions of 𝐺 𝐸 𝑝 /𝐺 𝑀 𝑝 at 𝑄 2 = 2.64, 3.20, and 4.10 GeV 2 . Our results are consistent with traditional Rosenbluth extractions, but with much smaller corrections and systematic uncertainties, comparable to the uncertainties from polarization measurements. Our data confirm the discrepancy between Rosenbluth and polarization extractions of the proton form factor ratio using an improved Rosenbluth extraction that yields smaller and less-correlated uncertainties than those typical of previous Rosenbluth extractions. Here, we compare our results to calculations of two-photon exchange effects and find that the observed discrepancy can be relatively well explained by such effects.
Completion document for MRT 8824 - Upgrade NIF’s gaseous radiochemistry diagnostics (RAGS) to support weapons science
This milestone highlights the successful upgrade and deployment of the Radiochemical Analysis of Gaseous Samples (RAGS) system, which delivers high-quality measurements (<20% uncertainty) of activated gaseous species from NIF implosions. These measurements are critical for supporting Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP) relevant platforms, including LANL’s Double Shell and LLNL’s Pushered Single Shell campaigns. The RAGS diagnostic technique enables analysis of short-range mixing in implosions using high-Z shells, which are otherwise inaccessible to conventional x-ray diagnostic methods. By facilitating the investigation of high-Z material mixing into fusion burn, this system provides essential data for quantifying and interpreting results in high-energy density (HED) experiments. This report details the physics motivation, diagnostic fundamentals, planned and enacted upgrade work, and the quantification of uncertainty for the upgraded system.
Carbon Dioxide Removal Measurement, Reporting, and Verification Simulation toolkit (CDR MRVSim) v0.1
CDR MRVSim is a statistical software toolkit for techno-economic analysis of measurement, reporting, and verification of multiple carbon dioxide removal technologies. The current version applies Monte Carlo simulation to existing datasets estimate the cost and uncertainty of measuring the soil organic carbon (SOC) content of agricultural land, accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, using data from field measurements. We are planning to incorporate enhanced rock weathering and other technologies into the software. The current model leverages existing data to characterize underlying variability in soil organic carbon and related parameters, including bulk density, in an agricultural field attempting to increase its SOC. We then simulate baseline and post-intervention "measurement campaigns" in which some number of SOC and bulk density measurements are conducted using a selected technology. This enables estimates of the cost and accuracy of measuring changes in SOC in the simulated field. The primary advantages over similar software are: 1) ability to quantify tradeoffs between cost and uncertainty in MRV across a range of possible MRV approaches 2) focus on guiding development of novel sensors by determining desirable sets of characteristics
Sodium Void Worth and Control Rod Worth Measurements in ZPPR 15
Sodium void worth and control rod worth were measured in Phases A, B, C and D of the ZPPR15 experimental program. Sodium voiding was simulated by replacing stainless steel cans containing sodium by empty stainless steel cans of the same sizes. The control rod worth measurements were measurements of simulated control rods (CRs) and simulated empty control rod positions (CRPs). A CRP consisted of a 2 x 2 array of drawers filled with sodium plates. A CR consisted of a 2 x 2 array of drawers containing alternating columns of boron carbide plates and sodium plates in the front 18 inches and just sodium plates in the back 18 inches. The ZPPR staff published the measured sodium void worths and control rod worths and the statistical uncertainties in the measured values. In reality, the published uncertainty for each of these measurements is only one component of the total uncertainty. There are additional contributions from uncertainties related to measurement technique, plate compositions and reproducibility. However, the dominant uncertainty for the sodium void worth and control rod worth measurements is the uncertainty in βeff which is required to convert from the natural measurement units, cents, to the calculation units, pcm or Δ/k 1 k 2 . A full uncertainty analysis was performed for the sodium void worth and control rod worth measurements. The significant uncertainties were quantified, and a total uncertainty was derived for each sodium void worth or control rod worth measurement. The ZPPR-15 experimental records were used to create detailed as-built Monte Carlo models of the sodium void worth and control rod worth configurations. These models were used to compute the sodium void worths and control rod worths. (C/E – 1) and the related uncertainty in (C/E – 1) were derived for the measured worths.
The Table of Standard Atomic Weights—an exercise in consensus
The present Table of Standard Atomic Weights (TSAW) of the elements is perhaps one of the most familiar datasets in science. Unlike most parameters in physical science whose values and uncertainties are evaluated using the “Guidelines for Uncertainty in Measurement” (GUM), the majority of standard atomic-weight values and their uncertainties are consensus values, not GUM-evaluated values. The Commission on Isotopic Abundances and Atomic Weights of the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) regularly evaluates the literature for new isotopic-abundance measurements that can lead to revised standard atomic-weight values, A r (E) for element E. The Commission strives to provide utmost clarity in products it disseminates, namely the TSAW and the Table of Isotopic Compositions of the Elements (TICE). In 2016, it was recognized by the Commission that a guideline recommending expression of uncertainty listed in parentheses following the standard atomic-weight value, e.g. A r (Se) = 78.971(8), is not in accord with the GUM, which suggests that this parenthetic notation be reserved to express standard uncertainty, not the expanded uncertainty used in the TSAW and TICE. In 2017, to eliminate this noncompliance with the GUM, a new format was adopted in which the uncertainty value is specified by the plus-minus symbol, e.g. A r (Se) = 78.971 ± 0.008. To clarify the definition of uncertainty, a new footnote has been added to the TSAW. This footnote emphasizes that an atomic-weight uncertainty is a consensus (decisional) uncertainty. Not only has the Commission shielded users of the TSAW and TICE from unreliable measurements that appear in the literature as a result of unduly small uncertainties, but the aim of IUPAC has been fulfilled by which any scientist, taking any natural sample from commerce or research, can expect their sample atomic weight to lie within A r (E) ± its uncertainty almost all of the time.
Producing 236 U reference standards for Accelerator Mass Spectrometry at the University of Notre Dame
36 U is a rare isotope of uranium, naturally occurring in ores with an abundance of 236 U/ 238 U$<$ 1 x 10 -9 . The ability to detect it and make isotopic ratio measurements has applications ranging from nuclear forensics and nonproliferation to energy production and environmental protection. Currently, Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) is the only technique sensitive enough to accurately measure 236 U/ 238 U isotopic ratios as they exist in naturally occurring ores in the range of 236 U/ 238 U = 10 -12 $-$ 10 -9 . Some AMS facilities have demonstrated their capabilities to make these measurements. Historically, the lack of commercially available reference standards covering the range of naturally occurring 236 U/ 238 U abundances has necessitated the use of absolute measurements, notoriously difficult to do using AMS, resulting in increased uncertainties in measurements and a reliance on knowledge of systematic effects. To mitigate these issues, various AMS facilities have sought to develop their own reference standards. Using a reference standard prepared for other forms of mass spectrometry, a series of AMS suitable standards was created through dilution with low-background natural uranium. The techniques used to produce and characterize these materials as well as analysis of them using AMS will be discussed.
Characterization of the optical model of the T2K 3D segmented plastic scintillator detector unit cube
The magnetized near detector (ND280) of the T2K long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment has been recently upgraded aiming to satisfy the requirement of reducing the systematic uncertainty from measuring the neutrino–nucleus interaction cross section, which is the largest systematic uncertainty in the search for leptonic charge-parity symmetry violation. A key component of the upgrade is SuperFGD, a 3D segmented plastic scintillator detector made of approximately 2,000,000 optically-isolated 1 cm 3 cubes. The SuperFGD cube unit shows promising optical performance, including a high light yield of about 40 photoelectrons (p.e.) per channel, a low cube-to-cube crosstalk rate below 3%, and a sub-nanosecond time resolution of 0.96 ns. By combining tracking and stopping power measurements of final state particles, this novel detector enables precise 3D-imaging of GeV neutrino interactions with reduced systematic uncertainties. A detailed Geant4 based optical simulation of the SuperFGD building block, i.e. a plastic scintillating cube read out by three wavelength shifting fibers, has been developed and validated with the different datasets collected in various beam tests. In this manuscript the description of the optical model as well as the comparison with data are reported.
Alignment of the straw tracking detectors for the Fermilab Muon $g − 2$ experiment and systematic studies for a muon electric dipole moment measurement
The Fermilab Muon $g-2$ experiment is currently preparing for its fourth data-taking period (Run-4). The experiment-wide effort on the analysis of Run-1 data is nearing completion, with the announcement of the first result expected in the coming months. The final goal of the experiment is to determine the muon magnetic anomaly to a precision of 140 ppb. This level of precision will provide indirect evidence of new physics, if the central value agrees with the previously-measured value of the magnetic anomaly. Essential in reducing the systematic uncertainty, through measurements of the muon beam profile, are the in-vacuum straw tracking detectors. A crucial prerequisite in obtaining accurate distributions of the beam profile is the internal alignment of the tracking detectors, which is described in this thesis. As a result of this position calibration, the tracking efficiency has increased by 3%, while the track quality increased by 4%. This thesis also discusses an additional measurement that will be made using the tracking detectors: a search for an electric dipole moment (EDM) of the muon, through the direct detection of an oscillation in the average vertical angle of the electron from the muon decay. An observation of a muon EDM would be evidencemore » of new physics and would provide a new source of CP violation in the charged lepton sector. Essential in measuring the EDM are accurate and precise estimations of potential non-zero radial and longitudinal magnetic fields, which were estimated using the Run-1 data. In addition, a preliminary analysis using the Run-1 data was undertaken to estimate the available precision for the magnetic anomaly measurement using the tracking detectors.« less
New measurements of gamma-ray energies and their absolute intensities from the decay of 231 Pa
Accurate nuclear data for the decay of 231 Pa is highly important for non-destructive analysis in the areas of radiochronometry and nuclear forensics. However, the evaluated nuclear data for this isotope is lacking; many previous measurements have large uncertainties and only two measurements are used to determine the absolute intensities. In this work, we present modern measurements of the major gamma-ray emissions from the decay of 231 Pa to 227 Ac including the energies and absolute intensities. For many of these measurements, the error envelopes have been significantly decreased compared to previous measurements, while remaining in good agreement. The absolute intensity of the 283 keV reference line was measured as 0.0163(2).
Galaxy–galaxy lensing with the DES-CMASS catalogue: measurement and constraints on the galaxy-matter cross-correlation
ABSTRACT The DMASS sample is a photometric sample from the DES Year 1 data set designed to replicate the properties of the CMASS sample from BOSS, in support of a joint analysis of DES and BOSS beyond the small overlapping area. In this paper, we present the measurement of galaxy–galaxy lensing using the DMASS sample as gravitational lenses in the DES Y1 imaging data. We test a number of potential systematics that can bias the galaxy–galaxy lensing signal, including those from shear estimation, photometric redshifts, and observing conditions. After careful systematic tests, we obtain a highly significant detection of the galaxy–galaxy lensing signal, with total S/N = 25.7. With the measured signal, we assess the feasibility of using DMASS as gravitational lenses equivalent to CMASS, by estimating the galaxy-matter cross-correlation coefficient rcc. By jointly fitting the galaxy–galaxy lensing measurement with the galaxy clustering measurement from CMASS, we obtain $r_{\rm cc}=1.09^{+0.12}_{-0.11}$ for the scale cut of $4 \, h^{-1}{\rm \,\,Mpc}$ and $r_{\rm cc}=1.06^{+0.13}_{-0.12}$ for $12 \, h^{-1}{\rm \,\,Mpc}$ in fixed cosmology. By adding the angular galaxy clustering of DMASS, we obtain rcc = 1.06 ± 0.10 for the scale cut of $4 \, h^{-1}{\rm \,\,Mpc}$ and rcc = 1.03 ± 0.11 for $12 \, h^{-1}{\rm \,\,Mpc}$. The resulting values of rcc indicate that the lensing signal of DMASS is statistically consistent with the one that would have been measured if CMASS had populated the DES region within the given statistical uncertainty. The measurement of galaxy–galaxy lensing presented in this paper will serve as part of the data vector for the forthcoming cosmology analysis in preparation.
Application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Uncertainty Quantification in Inverse Transport Problems
Determination of the components of a radioactive source/shield system using the system’s radiation signature is of great importance in homeland security, material safeguards, and waste management. Although significant progress has been made toward solving this inverse transport problem in recent years, work remains to be done to quantify the uncertainty in reconstructed results. In this article we apply two Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches, the delayed rejection adaptive metropolis (DRAM) and differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) methods, to solve inverse problems and quantify uncertainty. The DRAM method uses delayed rejection combined with global adaptation of the proposal covariance matrix. Furthermore, the DREAM method hybridizes MCMC sampling with the differential evolution (DE) algorithm. In numerical test cases, the DRAM and DREAM methods are shown to be superior to a first-order inverse Hessian approach for problems with noisy data and multiple unknown quantities, with DREAM converging to the posterior distribution more quickly than DRAM. The DREAM and DRAM results indicate that a full posterior distribution is required to quantify uncertainty in many inverse transport problems.
Predictions of the glass transition temperature and viscosity of organic aerosols from volatility distributions
Abstract. Volatility and viscosity are important properties of organic aerosols (OA), affecting aerosol processes such as formation, evolution, and partitioning of OA. Volatility distributions of ambient OA particles have often been measured, while viscosity measurements are scarce. We have previously developed a method to estimate the glass transition temperature (Tg) of an organic compound containing carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen. Based on analysis of over 2400 organic compounds including oxygenated organic compounds, as well as nitrogen- and sulfur-containing organic compounds, we extend this method to include nitrogen- and sulfur-containing compounds based on elemental composition. In addition, parameterizations are developed to predict Tg as a function of volatility and the atomic oxygen-to-carbon ratio based on a negative correlation between Tg and volatility. This prediction method of Tg is applied to ambient observations of volatility distributions at 11 field sites. The predicted Tg values of OA under dry conditions vary mainly from 290 to 339 K and the predicted viscosities are consistent with the results of ambient particle-phase-state measurements in the southeastern US and the Amazonian rain forest. Reducing the uncertainties in measured volatility distributions would improve predictions of viscosity, especially at low relative humidity. We also predict the Tg of OA components identified via positive matrix factorization of aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) data. The predicted viscosity of oxidized OA is consistent with previously reported viscosity of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) derived from α-pinene, toluene, isoprene epoxydiol (IEPOX), and diesel fuel. Comparison of the predicted viscosity based on the observed volatility distributions with the viscosity simulated by a chemical transport model implies that missing low volatility compounds in a global model can lead to underestimation of OA viscosity at some sites. The relation between volatility and viscosity can be applied in the molecular corridor or volatility basis set approaches to improve OA simulations in chemical transport models by consideration of effects of particle viscosity in OA formation and evolution.