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At least 235 records · Page 13

Hanford Site-wide Natural Recharge Boundary Condition for Groundwater Models

The purpose of this environmental calculation file (ECF) is to document the development of a tool that generates temporally and spatially variable representations of natural recharge for the Hanford Site. A key feature of the recharge evolution tool (RET) is that it applies sanctioned natural recharge rates varying as a function of the condition/cover of the ground surface and soil type at different points in time. No hydrologic calculations are performed by the RET, this script works as a lookup database between spatial and temporal datasets to assign research-based recharge rates to corresponding regions throughout the Hanford Site. This work will support vadose zone and groundwater models for the Hanford Site. Although efforts will focus on generating recharge estimates for the entirety of the Hanford Site, the focus scope of this work will be the Central Plateau Area to support the Composite Analysis Vadose Zone facet. In other words, the reliability of this calculation will be greatest within the Central Plateau Area and decrease with departures from that geographic region.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Hanford Site-wide Natural Recharge Boundary Condition for Groundwater Models

The purpose of this environmental calculation file (ECF) is to document the development of a tool that generates temporally and spatially variable representations of natural recharge for the Hanford Site. A key feature of the recharge evolution tool (RET) is that it applies sanctioned natural re-charge rates varying as a function of the condition/cover of the ground surface and soil type at different points in time. No hydrologic calculations are performed by the RET, this script works as a lookup data base between spatial and temporal datasets to assign research-based recharge rates to corresponding regions throughout the Hanford Site. This work will support vadose zone and groundwater models for the Hanford Site. Although efforts will focus on generating recharge estimates for the entirety of the Hanford Site, the focus scope of this work will be the Central Plateau Area to support the Composite Analysis Vadose Zone facet. In other words, the reliability of this calculation will be greatest within the Central Plateau Area and decrease with departures from that geographic region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Imagery Applications for Advanced Event Analytics (WBS 24.3.1.3.3-IDC FY202 Final Project Report)

Accurate event locations and replicability of location analyses are essential for assessing the nature of an event, its context, ambient site conditions, and proximity to relevant facilities and infrastructure. Additionally, accurate event locations provide valuable information that reduce uncertainties, improve confidence in event analyses, and inform in-field verification activities. However, event location/relocation and replicability are difficult due to a number of factors, including spatially-sparse network coverage in some areas of the globe and variability in seismic data processing. This team proposed that the incorporation of high-fidelity imagery as a data backbone to the analytical assessment of a suspected underground explosion and/or an advanced seismic event bulletin produced by the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO PrepCom) could reduce uncertainties and improve confidence in analyses. Specifically, temporally-separated images can reduce uncertainty by identifying areas where change has occurred (e.g., building construction or demolition, road or facilities improvements). The primary goal of this project was to develop an automated geospatial processing script for imagery change detection to better reflect needs of the technical community (including the IDC) and to make the use of such a tool accessible in a variety of settings across platforms. Technical experts at Los Alamos National Laboratory successfully built GAIA: the Geospatial Automated Imagery Analysis tool, to fill this need. GAIA combines five tool components to produce orthorectified time separated imagery and imagery change detection maps. Our toolkit (1) reduces error by providing a standardized workflow for image analyses and (2) significantly reduces processing time from between 7 and 24+ hours to approximately 5 minutes. Technical experts at Sandia National Laboratories supported GAIA via beta-testing and by introducing a web-based system approach for increased applicability. To test the function, performance, broad application, and ease-of-use of GAIA, we applied it to four separate test cases. The results of this preliminary investigation show promise in reducing uncertainty in seismic event locations: if satellite imagery can show regions where operations that produce seismic activity likely occurred, then pursuing imagery to locate epicenters of seismic nuclear events could reduce the time needed to find the true epicenter location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Imagery Applications for Advanced Event Analytics (WBS 24.3.1.3.3-IDC FY2020 Final Project Report)

Accurate event locations and replicability of location analyses are essential for assessing the nature of an event, its context, ambient site conditions, and proximity to relevant facilities and infrastructure. Additionally, accurate event locations provide valuable information that reduce uncertainties, improve confidence in event analyses, and inform in-field verification activities. However, event location/relocation and replicability are difficult due to a number of factors, including spatially-sparse network coverage in some areas of the globe and variability in seismic data processing. This team proposed that the incorporation of high-fidelity imagery as a data backbone to the analytical assessment of a suspected underground explosion and/or an advanced seismic event bulletin produced by the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO PrepCom) could reduce uncertainties and improve confidence in analyses. Specifically, temporally-separated images can reduce uncertainty by identifying areas where change has occurred (e.g., building construction or demolition, road or facilities improvements). The primary goal of this project was to develop an automated geospatial processing script for imagery change detection to better reflect needs of the technical community (including the IDC) and to make the use of such a tool accessible in a variety of settings across platforms. Technical experts at Los Alamos National Laboratory successfully built GAIA: the Geospatial Automated Imagery Analysis tool, to fill this need. GAIA combines five tool components to produce orthorectified time-separated imagery and imagery change detection maps. Our toolkit (1) reduces error by providing a standardized workflow for image analyses and (2) significantly reduces processing time from between 7 and 24+ hours to approximately 5 minutes. Technical experts at Sandia National Laboratories supported GAIA via beta-testing and by introducing a web-based system approach for increased applicability. To test the function, performance, broad application, and ease-of-use of GAIA, we applied it to four separate test cases. The results of this preliminary investigation show promise in reducing uncertainty in seismic event locations: if satellite imagery can show regions where operations that produce seismic activity likely occurred, then pursuing imagery to locate epicenters of seismic nuclear events could reduce the time needed to find the true epicenter location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Waveform Modeling and Simulation for Crustal Phases [Slides]

Goals for this project are to: numerically simulate wave propagation in layered crustal models with laterally-varying structure; Investigate seismic phases Pg and Pn; help understand the variability and complexity of these phases in recorded seismic data; and Use wavefield movies and "wavepaths" to suggest improvements for SALSA3D crustal tomography. In this presentation I will outline progress that has been made to date in an effort to modify a community research modeling code ("simulator")into a tool which can be used by GNDD researchers to study the effect of varying crustal velocity on wavefield propagation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Coupling CTH to Linear Acoustic Propagation across an Air-Earth Interface

The interface between the Earth and the atmosphere forms a strong contrast in material properties. As such, numerical issues can arise when simulating an elastic wavefield across such a boundary when using a numerical simulation scheme. This is exacerbated when two different simulation codes are coupled straddling that interface. In this report we document how we implement the coupling of CTH, a nonlinear shock physics code, to a linearized elastic/acoustic wave propagation algorithm, axiElasti, across the air-earth interface. We first qualitatively verify that this stable coupling between the two algorithms produces expected results with no visible effects of the coupling interface. We then verify the coupling interface quantitatively by checking consistency with results from previous work and with coupled acoustic-elastic seismo-acoustic source inversions in three earth materials.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Turbulent controls on ice-shelf melting [PowerPoint]

The presentation discusses the fundamental gaps in our understanding of ocean turbulence below ice shelves and how they were addressed via Large-Eddy Simulations (LES) specifically tailored for ice-shelf settings.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Grid generation, coupling strategies, and spatially-dependent time stepping for ocean-tidal/estuary systems and other ESM components (Final Report)

There are many multiple scale issues in the ocean modeling, including different mesh resolutions (local) and different physical processes (global). In order to gain efficiency and fidelity in modern ESMs, it is vital to develop high quality, highly nonuniform meshes and spatially-dependent time stepping strategies for coupling various climate system components. The USC/FSU team has worked on the design, analysis, and implementation of fast CVT grid generation and novel time- stepping schemes that could address all the requirements for global and regional ocean models on highly nonuniform meshes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

GoldSim E-Area Low-Level Waste Lacility Vadose Zone Model Benchmarking

This report documents the development and benchmarking of the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (ELLWF) GoldSim Engineered and Slit Trench (ET and ST) vadose zone models. Subsequent activities (beyond the scope of this effort) will couple the GoldSim-based vadose zone models to the GoldSim aquifer model, with the intent of performing stochastic analyses that couple all pertinent fate and transport processes from the ground surface up to the 100-m Point of Assessment (POA). The benchmarking presented within this report focuses on the Slit Trench 06 (ST06) bydrostratigraphic location that resides within the center set of slit trenches. These GoldSim-based vadose zone models are generic models capable of being benchmarked to any of the other trench locations within E-Area.

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Dynamic Behavior of Natural Seep Vents: Analysis of Field and Laboratory Observations and Modeling (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

In this project, we have analyzed data collected by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in a high pressure water tunnel (HPWT) and data from two research cruises to natural seeps in the Gulf of Mexico to adapt and validate a numerical model to predict the dynamics of natural seeps in the deep oceans. The HPWT data include video observations of the shrinkage rate of individual methane and natural gas bubbles under simulated deep-water conditions. Field data were collected during two cruises by the Gulf Integrated Spill Research (GISR) Consortium led by Texas A&M University and funded by the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI). These data included in situ observations from a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) of gas bubbles at two natural seep sites in the Gulf and acoustic observations of the natural seep bubble flares in the ocean water column. The acoustic data were from multibeam echosounders, one mounted in a forward-looking orientation on the ROV and another mounted down-looking in the haul of the ship. All of these laboratory and field data were focused on the dynamics of natural gas bubbles at temperatures and pressures favorable for clathrate hydrate formation between the gas and water. Our analyses of this data focused on understanding the mechanisms responsible for gas bubble dissolution within the hydrate stability zone (HSZ) of the oceans. Ice-like hydrate shells may form on the bubble-water interface under these conditions, and it was unknown how this might affect the mass transfer of gas into the ocean. We were able to extract bubble shrinkage rates from the HPWT datasets. Using this data we determined that mass transfer coefficients with and without a hydrate shell match empirical values for bubbles in contaminated systems (so-called dirty bubbles contaminated by naturally occurring surfactants). We also showed that free gas, and not gas hydrate, is the dominant dissolving phase when the hydrate sub-cooling is below 11 degree Celsius (temperature difference between hydrate the hydrate formation temperature and ambient temperator) or the pressure is reducing as bubbles rise through the ocean water column. Using this mass transfer model, our numerical model of bubble dissolution matched the over 200 HPWT experiments with an average error of 10% for predicting the bubble size at the end of an experiment. From field data in the literature, we also observed that gas bubbles dissolve faster when they are initially released, following mass transfer coefficients for so-called clean-bubbles (those not yet contaminated by surfactants). Shortly after release within the HSZ, a hydrate shell forms on the bubble-water interface, and the mass transfer reduces to rates matching those of dirty bubbles. We correlated this transition time from clean to dirty bubble behavior with the initial bubble surface area and the hydrate sub-cooling. With this model for hydrate formation time and using the mass transfer coefficients deduced from the HPWT data, we validated our numerical model for predicting the rise heights of natural seep flares in the oceans. Flare heights are commonly observed in haul-mounted acoustic multibeam data. The numerical model predicts bubbles to rise high in the ocean water column owing to the slower mass transfer rates for dirty bubbles that accompany the majority of their rise time. We found that the numerical model predictions matched the observed flare heights within 5% to 10% accuracy when we compared the rise heights of the largest bubbles released from the seafloor with the bubbles acoustically visible in the multibeam data. Bubbles become acoustically transparent as they shrink to sizes of order 1 mm in diameter for the multibeam frequencies used in the field. The forward-looking multibeam on the ROV also provided data on the lateral spreading of bubbles in natural seep flares. Our analysis of this data showed that spreading follows a diffusion process, with the effective diffusivity correlating with the wobbling length scale of these ellipsoidal bubbles. When we apply this diffusivity in a random displacement model of bubble spreading, our numerical simulations match closely the lateral spread observed by the M3 in the ocean water column. Finally, we compared the seep model predictions for the acoustic properties of these natural seep plumes with that observed by the acoustic instruments in the field. The M3 and EM 302 observations were converted to relative values of target strength using a calibration we obtained in the laboratory for the M3 and using an algorithm from the manufacturer for the EM 302. Comparing the numerical seep model to these data, we obtain good agreement over the whole height of rise of these bubble flares. This further validates the numerical model. Overall, our validated seep model captures the key dynamics of gas bubbles released from natural seeps in the oceans and helps to predict the fate of methane in the water column.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Evaluation of the PhaseNet Model Applied to the IMS Seismic Network

Producing a complete and accurate set of signal detections is essential for automatically building and characterizing seismic events of interest for nuclear explosion monitoring. Signal detection algorithms have been an area of research for decades, but still produce large quantities of false detections and misidentify real signals that must be detected to produce a complete global catalog of events of interest. Deep learning methods have shown promising capabilities in effectively characterizing seismic signals for complex tasks such as identifying phase arrival times. We use the PhaseNet model, a UNet-based Neural Network, trained on local distance data from northern California to predict seismic arrivals on data from the International Monitoring System (IMS) global network. We use an analyst-curated bulletin generated from this data set to compare the performance of PhaseNet to that of the Short-Term Average/Long-Term Average (STA/LTA) algorithm. We find that PhaseNet has the potential of outperforming traditional processing methods and recommend the training of a new model with the IMS data to achieve optimal performance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Bayesian Neural Network Ensemble Approach for Improving Large-Scale Streamflow Predictability

Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g.,AI driven model/component/parameterization selection). We propose a Bayesian neural network ensemble approach for improving large-scale streamflow predictability and understanding in a changing environment that combines multiple Earth system land model predictions by calculating spatiotemporally varying model weights and biases while accounting for various types of observations at multiple scales with uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Fire Community Observatory: Interdisciplinary, AI-informed Post-Fire Rapid Response for Improved Water Cycle Science at Watershed Scale

Wildfire is an ecological disturbance that disrupts the hydrological cycle. In the past few years, a record number of multiple-and-compounding fires have occurred across urban-wildland gradients in the Western United States. Changes to watershed hydrological partitioning in response to fires (infiltration, runoff, evapotranspiration) presents unprecedented challenges to “Water-in-the-West” through negative impacts to water supply and its quality, and is a direct threat to downstream communities, groundwater, and drinking water supply infrastructure. While much work is being done to advance Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) use during fires for emergency response (i.e. predict fire movement, direct evacuations), significant potential exists to use AI/ML to address three scientific grand challenges that are rarely addressed in a convergent science context: 1) how to enhance the potential resiliency of a landscape before fire(s), 2) how to cost-effectively and optimally monitor watershed changes after fires, and 3) how to predict future hydrological and biogeochemical trajectories in fire-impacted watershed given climate change. This whitepaper addresses DOE Focal Area 1: Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Grand Challenge "Uncertainty Project" to Accelerate Advances in Earth System Predictability: AI-Enabled Concepts and Applications

This proposal is emerging from GISS ModelE3 ESM development in the area of cloud physics, so we begin with an example of research needs/gaps from that work. Here, some of our greatest development concerns arise where we lack fundamental process-level understanding, as in ice formation. Namely, it is currently unclear what is the main process that is forming the majority of ice crystals in commonly occurring convection, apparently via secondary ice production at warm temperatures. We are keenly awaiting laboratory data for candidate mechanisms, which is not yet in hand to crucially establish their efficiency. Our progress is also hampered by a lack of uncertainty characterization in currently available measurements of ice crystal number size distributions. Furthermore, the same multiplication process may be responsible for a majority of ice crystals in many extratropical mixed-phase clouds, whose variable representation in CMIP6 ESMs may be a leading cause of differences in cloud phase feedback and ECS. Yet we have been required to deliver an ESM with the cloud physics knowledge at hand. The proposed grand challenge project is AI-enabled via application of machine learning (ML) to climate model and observational data streams (focal area 3), and applications include AI-guided observing system design and model/component/parameterization selection (areas 1 and 2). The project is structurally agnostic as to whether model or observing system components use AI approaches or not, but uncertainties must be estimated and propagatable in both.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Advancing Sea Ice Predictability in E3SM with Machine Learning

Focal area(s): To improve predictions of sea ice in E3SM we propose to develop a hierarchy of data-driven models using observational and simulation data to investigate the most important Earth system drivers of sea ice variability and loss, develop surrogates that build on the reduced parameter space of important drivers, and, where appropriate, couple machine learning models with standard PDE models to capture important physical behavior at different scales. This work falls under Focal Area 2. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AI for Extreme Volcanic Climate Forcing and Feedback Forecasting in the 21st century

Focal Areas: Our paradigm-shifting framework will apply machine learning and perform physical analysis of contemporary volcanoes to develop sound forecasts of extreme eruptions in the 21st century and their abrupt drying and cooling impacts on the warming climate. We will also bridge climate data driven regression models and earth system model output to trace teleconnections that exacerbate regional impacts such as Arctic amplification and western US droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AI to Automate ModEx for Optimal Predictive Improvement and Scientific Discovery

Focal Areas: Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, advanced experimental optimization, unsupervised learning, and hardware-related AI efforts; Predictive modeling through AI techniques and AI-derived model components; Using AI to design a hierarchical model prediction system consisting and model selection; and, Interrogating complex data (observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods such as explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗