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At least 235 records · Page 13

Data-based filtered dissipation rate modelling for multi-modal turbulent combustion: evaluating a priori model generalizability

Manifold-based models offer a computationally efficient alternative to directly transporting the thermochemical state in computational simulations of turbulent reacting flows, projecting the high-dimensional thermochemical state-space onto a low-dimensional manifold. Recent efforts have yielded a manifold-based model applicable to multi-modal combustion, enabling reconstruction of the thermochemical state from solutions to two-dimensional manifold equations in mixture fraction and generalized progress variable that are parameterised by three scalar dissipation rates. In coarse-grained simulations such as Large Eddy Simulation (LES), closure of the multi-modal manifold equations and subfilter variances/covariance requires closure of three filtered scalar dissipation rates. Here, the present work adopts a data-based approach, providing closure for the three filtered scalar dissipation rates via deep neural networks (DNNs). High-fidelity datasets corresponding to an autoigniting n-dodecane jet flame and a bluff body swirl-stabilized confined lifted spray flame of two aviation fuels (Jet-A and C1) with different ignition propensities are leveraged to generate training data that spans a diverse range of thermodynamic conditions and combustion modes, including low- and high-temperature ignition regimes in addition to premixed and nonpremixed behaviour. A final DNN model is trained to enforce inherent physical constraints by learning nonlinear functional transformations of the three filtered scalar dissipation rates. The generalizability of this constrained DNN model is demonstrated a priori via conditional statistics evaluated on the lifted spray flame with C1–a configuration that had not been included in the training data. Excellent DNN agreement with conditional DNS statistics is observed, and integrated gradients are computed to identify the most sensitive input variables. The similarity of the marginal PDFs of the most informative input variables and outputs across configurations are quantified via the Wasserstein metric, demonstrating that data-based models may successfully generalize to unseen parametric conditions so long as the most informative input variables share similar distributions across training and testing datasets.

Data-based modelling↗

OGLE-2018-BLG-1185b: A Low-mass Microlensing Planet Orbiting a Low-mass Dwarf

We report an analysis of the planetary microlensing event OGLE-2018-BLG-1185, which was observed by a large number of ground-based telescopes and by the Spitzer Space Telescope. The ground-based light curve indicates a low planet–host star mass ratio of q = (6.9 ± 0.2) × 10{sup −5}, which is near the peak of the wide-orbit exoplanet mass-ratio distribution. We estimate the host star and planet masses with a Bayesian analysis using the measured angular Einstein radius under the assumption that stars of all masses have an equal probability of hosting the planet. The flux variation observed by Spitzer is marginal, but still places a constraint on the microlens parallax. Imposing a conservative constraint that this flux variation should be Δf {sub Spz} < 4 instrumental flux units yields a host mass of M{sub host}=0.37{sub −0.21}{sup +0.35} M{sub ⊙} and a planet mass of m{sub p}=8.4{sub −4.7}{sup +7.9} M{sub ⊕}. A Bayesian analysis including the full parallax constraint from Spitzer suggests smaller host star and planet masses of M{sub host}=0.091{sub −0.018}{sup +0.064} M{sub ⊙} and m{sub p}=2.1{sub −0.4}{sup +1.5} M{sub ⊕}, respectively. Future high-resolution imaging observations with the Hubble Space Telescope or Extremely Large Telescope could distinguish between these two scenarios and help reveal the planetary system properties in more detail.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Severe Convective Storms in Limited Instability Organized by Pattern and Distribution

Abstract Severe convection occurring in high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) environments is a common cool-season threat in the southeastern United States. Previous studies of HSLC convection document the increased operational challenges that these environments present compared to their high-CAPE counterparts, corresponding to higher false-alarm ratios and lower probability of detection for severe watches and warnings. These environments can exhibit rapid destabilization in the hours prior to convection, sometimes associated with the release of potential instability. Here, we use self-organizing maps (SOMs) to objectively identify environmental patterns accompanying HSLC cool-season severe events and associate them with variations in severe weather frequency and distribution. Large-scale patterns exhibit modest variation within the HSLC subclass, featuring strong surface cyclones accompanied by vigorous upper-tropospheric troughs and northward-extending regions of instability, consistent with prior studies. In most patterns, severe weather occurs immediately ahead of a cold front. Other convective ingredients, such as lower-tropospheric vertical wind shear, near-surface equivalent potential temperature (θ e ) advection, and the release of potential instability, varied more significantly across patterns. No single variable used to train SOMs consistently demonstrated differences in the distribution of severe weather occurrence across patterns. Comparison of SOMs based on upper and lower quartiles of severe occurrence demonstrated that the release of potential instability was most consistently associated with higher-impact events in comparison to other convective ingredients. Overall, we find that previously developed HSLC composite parameters reasonably identify high-impact HSLC events. Significance Statement Even when atmospheric instability is not optimal for severe convective storms, in some situations they can still occur, presenting increased challenges to forecasters. These marginal environments may occur at night or during the cool season, when people are less attuned to severe weather threats. Here, we use a sorting algorithm to classify different weather patterns accompanying such storms, and we distinguish which specific patterns and weather system features are most strongly associated with severe storms. Our goals are to increase situational awareness for forecasters and to improve understanding of the processes leading to severe convection in marginal environments.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Small-Signal Stability Support from Dynamically Configurable Grid-Forming/Following Inverters for Distribution Systems: Preprint

As the penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) continues to increase in modern power systems, system stability is challenged by the insufficient inertia induced by IBRs; hence, there is a need to develop various methods to address the potential instabilities. In this paper, grid-forming (GFM) and grid-following (GFL) controls are implemented for inverters with flexible-mode transitions between them. The operation mode transition between GFM and GFL controls is adopted as an additional degree of control flexibility to adjust the small signal stability margin. Further, a holistic and detailed small signal model of the entire system with the dynamics from both synchronous generators (SGs) and IBRs is derived. The effectiveness of the proposed work in adjusting the system small signal stability margin is validated by conducting case studies with varying penetration levels of IBRs. A test system with one SG and five inverters was implemented in MATLAB/Simulink to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Index Terms - grid-following control, grid-forming control, operation mode transition, small-signal stability analysis

grid-following control↗

Bayesian operator inference for data-driven reduced-order modeling

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian inverse problem with Gaussian prior and likelihood. The resulting posterior distribution characterizes the operators defining the reduced-order model, hence the predictions subsequently issued by the reduced-order model are endowed with uncertainty. The statistical moments of these predictions are estimated via a Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution. Since the reduced models are fast to solve, this sampling is computationally efficient. Furthermore, the proposed Bayesian framework provides a statistical interpretation of the regularization term that is present in the deterministic operator inference problem, and the empirical Bayes approach of maximum marginal likelihood suggests a selection algorithm for the regularization hyperparameters. The proposed method is demonstrated on two examples: the compressible Euler equations with noise-corrupted observations, and a single-injector combustion process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimal Bayesian supervised domain adaptation for RNA sequencing data

Abstract Motivation When learning to subtype complex disease based on next-generation sequencing data, the amount of available data is often limited. Recent works have tried to leverage data from other domains to design better predictors in the target domain of interest with varying degrees of success. But they are either limited to the cases requiring the outcome label correspondence across domains or cannot leverage the label information at all. Moreover, the existing methods cannot usually benefit from other information available a priori such as gene interaction networks. Results In this article, we develop a generative optimal Bayesian supervised domain adaptation (OBSDA) model that can integrate RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) data from different domains along with their labels for improving prediction accuracy in the target domain. Our model can be applied in cases where different domains share the same labels or have different ones. OBSDA is based on a hierarchical Bayesian negative binomial model with parameter factorization, for which the optimal predictor can be derived by marginalization of likelihood over the posterior of the parameters. We first provide an efficient Gibbs sampler for parameter inference in OBSDA. Then, we leverage the gene-gene network prior information and construct an informed and flexible variational family to infer the posterior distributions of model parameters. Comprehensive experiments on real-world RNA-Seq data demonstrate the superior performance of OBSDA, in terms of accuracy in identifying cancer subtypes by utilizing data from different domains. Moreover, we show that by taking advantage of the prior network information we can further improve the performance. Availability and implementation The source code for implementations of OBSDA and SI-OBSDA are available at the following link. https://github.com/SHBLK/BSDA. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

EVALUATION OF HOT CHANNEL FACTOR FOR SODIUM-COOLED FAST REACTORS WITH MULTI-PHYSICS TOOLKIT

The evaluation of hot channel factor (HCF) is of great significance to the quantification of safety margins for reactor designs. In this paper, HCFs for a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) are evaluated with the Simulation-based High-efficiency Advanced Reactor Prototyping (SHARP) toolkit, which is developed under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Campaign of DOE for multi-physics reactor performance and safety simulations. The high-fidelity neutronics and thermal hydraulics solvers PROTEUS and Nek5000 in the SHARP toolkit are coupled to perform the multi-physics simulations for HCF evaluation. The HCFs induced by cladding manufacturing tolerance, fissile content mal-distribution, wire orientation and uncertainties on the cladding, coolant, and fuel properties are evaluated for a reference core SFR design (AFR-100). The HCFs calculated with the SHARP toolkit are compared to legacy HCFs for similar reactor types. The comparison demonstrates the reduction or elimination of modeling uncertainties in the calculation of HCFs using high fidelity advanced modeling and simulation tools without the need of expensive experiments. Moreover, the reduction of the uncertainties on HCFs evaluation allows an increase in nominal parameters and safety margin, which in turn improves the economic competitiveness of the SFR.

Hot channel factor (HCF)↗

Post-starburst properties of post-merger galaxies

Post-starburst galaxies (PSBs) are transition galaxies showing evidence of recent rapid star formation quenching. To understand the role of galaxy mergers in triggering quenching, we investigate the incidence of PSBs and resolved PSB properties in post-merger galaxies using both SDSS single-fibre spectra and MaNGA resolved IFU spectra. We find post-mergers have a PSB excess of 10–20 times that relative to their control galaxies using single-fibre PSB diagnostics. A similar excess of ∼ 19 times is also found in the fraction of central (C)PSBs and ring-like (R)PSBs in post-mergers using the resolved PSB diagnostic. However, 60 per cent of the CPSBs + RPSBs in both post-mergers and control galaxies are missed by the single-fibre data. By visually inspecting the resolved PSB distribution, we find that the fraction of outside-in quenching is seven times higher than inside-out quenching in PSBs in post-mergers while PSBs in control galaxies do not show large differences in these quenching directions. In addition, we find a marginal deficit of HI gas in PSBs relative to non-PSBs in post-mergers using the MaNGA-HI data. The excesses of PSBs in post-mergers suggest that mergers play an important role in triggering quenching. Resolved IFU spectra are important to recover the PSBs missed by single-fibre spectra. The excess of outside-in quenching relative to inside-out quenching in post-mergers suggests that AGNs are not the dominant quenching mechanism in these galaxies, but that processes from the disc (gas inflows/consumption and stellar feedback) play a more important role.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Integration Study of Converter-Interfaced Combined Heat and Power Plants

Combined Heat and Power (CHP) systems, as a proven technology, provide numerous benefits to the plant owner by saving electricity bill, reducing carbon dioxide emissions, and improving electricity service reliability. However, their integration into the distribution grid faces many barriers including the complexity of grid code requirements and the lack of technical expertise in commercial and small industrial plants to interface with the utility and accelerate the interconnection process. To solve these issues, this study proposes a converter-interfaced solution for CHP integration. Simulations including various fault scenarios and load flow under different grid conditions are carried out to compare technical performances of the proposed solution with directly-coupled CHP. Results show that the generator size of converter-interfaced CHP can be reduced by approximately 25% and it also provides advantageous features such as reduced stress level under fault conditions and a better dynamic stability margin. In addition, a power factor controller is designed and reactive power from CHP is dispatched in such a way that the CHP plant is compliant with power factor requirements from utilities under all operating conditions.

Converter, Combined heat and power, Distributed en↗

Long-run Marginal Emission Rates for Electricity - Workbooks for 2022 Cambium Data

These workbooks contain modeled estimates of long-run marginal emission rates (LRMER) for the contiguous United States. A LRMER is an estimate of the rate of emissions that would be either induced or avoided by a change in electric demand, taking into account how the change could influence both the operation as well as the structure of the grid (i.e., the building and retiring of capital assets, such as generators and transmission lines). It is therefore distinct from the more-commonly-known short-run marginal, which treat grid assets as fixed. Long-run marginal emissions rates are generally appropriate to use when trying to comprehensively estimate the impact of a long-lived (i.e., more than several years) intervention. There are two workbooks that supply the data at two different geographic resolutions: states and GEA regions (20 regions that are similar to, but not exactly the same as, the US EPA's eGRID regions). For more data underlying these emissions factors, see the Cambium 2022 project at https://scenarioviewer.nrel.gov/. For more details on input assumptions and methodology see the associated report (Cambium 2022 Scenario Descriptions and Documentation, https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy23osti/84916.pdf). This data is planned to be updated annually. Information on the latest versions can be found at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/cambium.html.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Mechanistic Pathways for N 2 O Elimination from trans -R 3 Sn-O-N=N-O-SnR 3 and for Reversible Binding of CO 2 to R 3 Sn-O-SnR 3 (R = Ph, Cy)

The rate and mechanism of the elimination of N 2 O from trans-R 3 Sn-O-N=N-O-SnR 3 (R = Ph ( 1 Ph ) and R = Cy ( 1 Cy )) to form R 3 Sn-O-SnR 3 (R = Ph ( 2 Ph ) and R = Cy ( 2 Cy )) have been studied using both NMR and IR techniques to monitor the reactions in the temperature range of 39–79 °C in C 6 D 6 . Activation parameters for this reaction are ΔH ‡ = 15.8 ± 2.0 kcal·mol –1 and ΔS ‡ = –28.5 ± 5 cal·mol –1 ·K –1 for 1 Ph and ΔH ‡ = 22.7 ± 2.5 kcal·mol –1 and ΔS ‡ = –12.4 ± 6 cal·mol –1 ·K –1 for 1 Cy . Addition of O 2 , CO 2 , N 2 O, or PPh 3 to sealed tube NMR experiments did not alter in a detectable way the rate or product distribution of the reactions. Computational DFT studies of elimination of hyponitrite from trans-Me 3 Sn-O-N=N-O-SnMe 3 ( 1 Me ) yield a mechanism involving initial migration of the R 3 Sn group from O to N passing through a marginally stable intermediate product and subsequent N 2 O elimination. Reactions of 1 Ph with protic acids HX are rapid and lead to formation of R 3 SnX and trans-H 2 N 2 O 2 . Reaction of 1 Ph with the metal radical •Cr(CO) 3 C 5 Me 5 at low concentrations results in rapid evolution of N 2 O. At higher •Cr(CO) 3 C 5 Me 5 concentrations, evolution of CO 2 rather than N 2 O is observed. Addition of 1 atm or less CO 2 to benzene or toluene solutions of 2 Ph and 2 Cy resulted in very rapid reaction to form the corresponding carbonates R 3 Sn-O-C(=O)-O-SnR 3 (R = Ph ( 3 Ph ) and R = Cy ( 3 Cy )) at room temperature. Evacuation results in fast loss of bound CO 2 and regeneration of 2 Ph and 2 Cy . Variable temperature data for formation of 3 Cy yield ΔH o = –8.7 ± 0.6 kcal·mol –1 , ΔS o = –17.1 ± 2.0 cal·mol –1 ·K –1 , and ΔG o 298K = –3.6 ± 1.2 kcal·mol –1 . Furthermore, DFT studies were performed and provide additional insight into the energetics and mechanisms for the reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The GGCMI Phase 2 emulators: global gridded crop model responses to changes in CO 2 , temperature, water, and nitrogen (version 1.0)

Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects of future climate changes on crop yields. We describe here the development of emulators for nine process-based crop models and five crops using output from the Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2. The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment is designed with the explicit goal of producing a structured training dataset for emulator development that samples across four dimensions relevant to crop yields: atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, temperature, water supply, and nitrogen inputs (CTWN). Simulations are run under two different adaptation assumptions: that growing seasons shorten in warmer climates, and that cultivar choice allows growing seasons to remain fixed. The dataset allows emulating the climatological-mean yield response of all models with a simple polynomial in mean growing-season values. Climatological-mean yields are a central metric in climate change impact analysis; we show here that they can be captured without relying on interannual variations. In general, emulation errors are negligible relative to differences across crop models or even across climate model scenarios; errors become significant only in some marginal lands where crops are not currently grown. We demonstrate that the resulting GGCMI emulators can reproduce yields under realistic future climate simulations, even though the GGCMI Phase 2 dataset is constructed with uniform CTWN offsets, suggesting that the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation distributions are small relative to those of changing means. The resulting emulators therefore capture relevant crop model responses in a lightweight, computationally tractable form, providing a tool that can facilitate model comparison, diagnosis of interacting factors affecting yields, and integrated assessment of climate impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Source term analysis of FeCrAl accident tolerant fuel using MELCOR

It has been established that incremental improvements in beyond design basis accident performance can be achieved through accident tolerant fuel (ATF). However, they have the potential to recover margin with respect to conventional fuel and therefore enhance plant economics through uprate or cycle length increase. To realize this potential, it is necessary to quantify the reduction in source term due to use of ATF, and correspondingly how this is affected by increasing the cycle length and/or burnup. This requires development of a risk informed analysis methodology for ATF under high burnup conditions, which is being developed within LWRS. To this end, a MELCOR simulation of FeCrAl ATF in a recovered Large Break LOCA (LBLOCA) scenario has been developed, using a model based on the Zion Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The new user defined material capability, along with the inclusion of detailed neutronics- and depletion-derived parameters such as core power distribution, decay heat behavior, and fission product inventories, allows a more detailed simulation of FeCrAl clad material properties and behavior than has previously been possible using MELCOR. These detailed FeCrAl results were compared with a zircaloy clad model to investigate the differences between the two clad types and quantify the benefits of FeCrAl ATF with an 18-month cycle. Next, the fuel cycle with ATF was extended to 24 months, to determine whether any additional safety margin provided by FeCrAl ATF could be leveraged to implement high burnup FeCrAl-clad fuel while retaining the same operating and safety limits as current zircaloy-clad fuel. For the particular scenario analyzed, the delay to fuel failure from using ATF was of the same order as the LOCA recovery time, and hence significant in reducing fission product release, with the 24-month FeCrAl core performing better than the 18-month zircaloy core. It is noted that for other transients, the reduction in release due to using FeCrAl may be less significant. Furthermore, the material model developed here can be used in such further studies in support of determining the overall source term.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Margin to onset of nucleate boiling and flow instability studies for preliminary MITR design-demonstration element thermal-hydraulics

This study covers the onset of flow instability (OFI) preliminary results obtained from leveraging correlations, in addition to the preliminary thermal hydraulics results such as pressure, flow velocity, temperature, and oxide layer over the design demonstration experiment (DDE) for the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Reactor (MITR). Current computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models in fluid structure interaction (FSI) have added the capability of assessing margins to onset of nucleate boiling (ONB). This study initiates the capability to model the margin to OFI and ONB presented for the MITR. Such study is supportive of the United States High Performance Research Reactor (USHPRR) program. Previous studies provided preliminary thermal-hydraulic and mechanical analyses of the hydrodynamic effects in the MITR DDE under conservative approximations for plate power distribution. In conclusion, this study focuses on providing insights into the OFI future research direction optimizing the transport of thermal energy, mass-flow rates, flow-channel geometries, and boundary conditions.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

COOL-LAMPS. VII. Quantifying Strong-lens Scaling Relations with 177 Cluster-scale Strong Gravitational Lenses in DECaLS

Abstract We estimate the Einstein-radius-enclosed total mass for 177 cluster-scale strong gravitational lenses identified by the ChicagO Optically selected Lenses Located At the Margins of Public Surveys (COOL-LAMPS) collaboration with lens redshifts ranging from 0.2 ⪅ z ⪅ 1.0 using the brightest-cluster-galaxy (BCG) redshift and an observable proxy for the Einstein radius. We constrain the Einstein-radius-enclosed luminosity and stellar mass by fitting parametric spectral energy distributions to aperture photometry from the Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey (DECaLS) in the g -, r -, and z -band Dark Energy Camera filters. We find that the BCG redshift, enclosed total mass, and enclosed luminosity are strongly correlated and well described by a planar relationship in 3D space. We find that the enclosed total mass and stellar mass are correlated with a logarithmic slope of 0.50 0 − 0.031 + 0.029 , and the enclosed total mass and stellar-to-total mass fraction are correlated with a logarithmic slope of − 0.49 5 − 0.033 + 0.032 . In tandem with the small radii within which these slopes are constrained, this may suggest invariance in baryon conversion efficiency and feedback strength as a function of cluster-centric radii in galaxy clusters. Additionally, the correlations described here should have utility in ranking strong-lensing candidates in upcoming imaging surveys—such as Rubin/Legacy Survey of Space and Time—in which an algorithmic treatment of strong lenses will be needed due to the sheer volume of data these surveys will produce.

Mork, Simon D. (ORCID:0000000255739131)↗

Reactive transport modeling of organic carbon degradation in marine methane hydrate systems

Abstract Natural methane hydrate has often been observed in sand layers that contain no particulate organic carbon (POC), but are surrounded by organic-rich, fine-grained marine muds. In this paper, we develop a reactive transport model (RTM) of a microbially-mediated set of POC degradation reactions, including hydrolysis of POC driven by extracellular enzymes, fermentation of the resulting high-molecular weight dissolved organic carbon (HMW-DOC), and methanogenesis that consumes low-molecular weight dissolved organic carbon (LMW-DOC). These processes are mediated by two groups of microbes, fermenters and methanogens that are heterogeneously distributed in different lithologies, with the largest numbers of microbes in the large pores of coarse-grained layers. We find that the RTM can reproduce methane hydrate occurrences observed in two different geological environments, at Walker Ridge Site 313-H (Gulf of Mexico) and IODP Site U1325 (Cascadia Margin). We also find that microbes can degrade POC even if they are physically separated, as extracellular enzymes and DOC can diffuse away from where they are produced by microbes. Microbial activity is highest at relatively early times after burial at shallow depths and near lithological boundaries, where concentration gradients transport solutes to intervals that contain the most microbes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Based Response Surface Approach for FLEX and Accident Tolerant Fuels for Medium Break LOCA Spectrum

After the Fukushima Daiichi Accident, the safety features such as accident tolerant fuel (ATF) and diverse and flexible coping strategies (FLEX) for existing nuclear fleets are being investigated by the US Department of Energy under the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. This research is being conducted to quantify the risk-benefit of these safety features. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA)-based response-surface approach has been presented to quantify the FLEX and ATF benefits by estimating the risk associated with each option. ATFs with multilayered silicon carbide (SiC), iron-chromium-aluminum, and chromium-coated zirconium cladding were considered in this study. While these ATF candidates perform better than the current zirconium cladding (Zr), they may introduce additional failure modes in some operating conditions. The fuel failure analysis modules (FAMs) were developed to investigate ATF performance. The dynamic risk assessments were performed using RAVEN, a DPRA tool, coupled with RELAP5 and FAMs. A cumulative distribution function-based index provided a mean of comparing the benefits of safety enhancements. For medium break loss of coolant accidents, FLEX operational timing window for each fuel type was estimated. Among these ATF candidates, SiC-type ATF was the most beneficial candidate for an increased safety margin than Zr-based fuel and was found to complement FLEX strategies in terms of risk and coping time.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Hydropower operation in future power grid with various renewable power integration

Hydropower generation may play an increasingly important role in the power grid under increasing contribution of variable renewable sources such as wind and solar. An improved understanding of the changes to hydropower dispatch under future higher VRE grid conditions reveals research gap that should be informed power grid planning and reservoir water releases policies considering multiple other water uses and varying hydrologic condition. Here this study aims to understand the role of hydropower in a changing power grid by employing a production cost model, PLEXOS, across future power system scenarios, planning horizons, and regions. We explore optimized hydropower dispatch to understand its potential role in minimizing the system cost and renewable curtailment. We also examine the sensitivity of hydropower revenue under various grid scenarios of the Eastern U.S. and hydrology conditions. Results indicate hydropower generation follows net load and compensates for the variability of solar and wind generation. Although energy prices are lower during some periods in the future grid scenarios, there is a potential for higher revenue for hydropower by providing both energy and ancillary services during times of stress. Additionally, hydropower revenue is sensitive to hydrology in the SERC region, which we considered as an example. The feasibility of hydropower dispatching with higher ramps between low and high hourly-capacity factors, as indicated in the optimization model, requires further study to consider other water use and ecology constraints.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗