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At least 235 records · Page 13

Debiasing with Diffusion: Probabilistic Reconstruction of Dark Matter Fields from Galaxies with CAMELS

Abstract Galaxies are biased tracers of the underlying cosmic web, which is dominated by dark matter (DM) components that cannot be directly observed. Galaxy formation simulations can be used to study the relationship between DM density fields and galaxy distributions. However, this relationship can be sensitive to assumptions in cosmology and astrophysical processes embedded in galaxy formation models, which remain uncertain in many aspects. In this work, we develop a diffusion generative model to reconstruct DM fields from galaxies. The diffusion model is trained on the CAMELS simulation suite that contains thousands of state-of-the-art galaxy formation simulations with varying cosmological parameters and subgrid astrophysics. We demonstrate that the diffusion model can predict the unbiased posterior distribution of the underlying DM fields from the given stellar density fields while being able to marginalize over uncertainties in cosmological and astrophysical models. Interestingly, the model generalizes to simulation volumes ≈500 times larger than those it was trained on and across different galaxy formation models. The code for reproducing these results can be found athttps://github.com/victoriaono/variational-diffusion-cdm✎.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Electron energy distributions in uranium helium mixtures

The high energy portion of the electron energy distribution for mixtures of uranium and helium at 1 atm, 5000 K, and a neutron flux of 2x10 to the 12th power/sq cm-sec have been calculated. The addition of He improves the heat transport characteristics of the plasma and has the feature that the He energy levels lie in the high energy portion of the electron distribution, potentially allowing non maxwellian excitation. It is concluded, however, that the resulting reaction rates are marginal relative to achieving inversion in He.

Makowski, M. A.↗

Infrared experiments for spaceborne planetary atmospheres research. Full report

The role of infrared sensing in atmospheric science is discussed and existing infrared measurement techniques are reviewed. Proposed techniques for measuring planetary atmospheres are criticized and recommended instrument developments for spaceborne investigations are summarized for the following phenomena: global and local radiative budget; radiative flux profiles; winds; temperature; pressure; transient and marginal atmospheres; planetary rotation and global atmospheric activity; abundances of stable constituents; vertical, lateral, and temporal distribution of abundances; composition of clouds and aerosols; radiative properties of clouds and aerosols; cloud microstructure; cloud macrostructure; and non-LTE phenomena.

Source record↗

The nuclear regions of NGC 3311 and NGC 7768 imaged with the Hubble Space Telescope Planetary Camera

We present high-resolution, V band images of the central regions of the brightest cluster ellipticals NGC 3311 and NGC 7768 taken with the Planetary Camera of the Hubble Space Telescope. The nuclei of both galaxies are found to be obscured by dust, though the morphology of the dust is quite different in the two cases. The dust cloud which obscures the central 3 arcsec of NGC 3311 is complex and irregular, while the central region of NGC 7768 contains a disk of material similar in appearance and scale to that recently observed in HST images of NGC 4261. The bright, relatively blue source detected in ground-based studies of NGC 3311 is marginally resolved and is likely to be a site of ongoing star formation. We examine the distribution of globular clusters in the central regions of NGC 3311. The gradient in the surface density profile of the cluster system is significantly shallower than that found by previous investigators at larger radii. We find a core radius for the cluster distribution of 12 plus or minus 3 kpc, which is even larger than the core radius of the globular cluster system surrounding M87. It is also an order of magnitude larger than the upper limit on the core radius of NGC 3311's stellar light and suggests that the central field-star population and the globular cluster system are dynamically distinct. We briefly discuss possible sources for the cold/warm interstellar material in early-type galaxies. While the issue has not been resolved, models which involve galactic wind failure appear to be mo st naturally consistent with the observations.

Grillmair, Carl J.↗

New Antenna Deployment, Pointing and Supporting Mechanism

On ITALSAT Flight 2, the Italian telecommunications satellite, the two L-Ka antennas (Tx and Rx) use two large deployable reflectors (2000-mm diameter), whose deployment and fine pointing functions are accomplished by means of an innovative mechanism concept. The Antenna Deployment & Pointing Mechanism and Supporting Structure (ADPMSS) is based on a new configuration solution, where the reflector and mechanisms are conceived as an integrated, self-contained assembly. This approach is different from the traditional configuration solution. Typically, a rigid arm is used to deploy and then support the reflector in the operating position, and an Antenna Pointing Mechanism (APM) is normally interposed between the reflector and the arm for steering operation. The main characteristics of the ADPMSS are: combined implementation of deployment, pointing, and reflector support; optimum integration of active components and interface matching with the satellite platform; structural link distribution to avoid hyperstatic connections; very light weight and; high performance in terms of deployment torque margin and pointing range/accuracy. After having successfully been subjected to all component-level qualification and system-level acceptance tests, two flight ADPMSS mechanisms (one for each antenna) are now integrated on ITALSAT F2 and are ready for launch. This paper deals with the design concept, development, and testing program performed to qualify the ADPMSS mechanism.

Costabile, V.↗

Multidisciplinary Design Optimization of Low-Boom Supersonic Aircraft with Mission Constraints

Design of low-boom supersonic aircraft is heavily dictated by aircraft volume and lift distributions. These unique design characteristics make it a challenge to enforce mission requirements (such as static margins and trim requirements) during design optimization. This low-boom design challenge is resolved by using reversed equivalent area targets for low-fidelity low-boom design and a decomposition method for multidisciplinary design optimization(MDO).The corresponding low-boom MDO problem includes aircraft mission constraints for cruise ranges, cruise speeds, trim margin for low-boom cruise, static margins for takeoff/cruise/landing, tail rotation angles for trim at takeoff/landing, takeoff/landing field lengths, and approach velocity, as well as volume constraints for cabin and main landing gear packaging. The decomposition method is developed to optimally resolve the conflicts between the low-boom design objective and other design constraints. The decomposition method is successfully applied to design a low-boom supersonic configuration that carries 40 passengers, has low-boom cruise of Mach 1.6 with range ≥ 2,500 nm, and can also cruise at Mach 1.8 with range ≥ 3,600 nm. The generated configuration satisfies all specified mission constraints and has the potential to achieve a low-boom ground noise level below 75 PLdB.

Wu Li↗

Multidisciplinary Design Optimization of Low-Boom Supersonic Aircraft with Mission Constraints

Conceptual design of low-boom supersonic aircraft is heavily dictated by aircraft volume and lift distributions. These unique design characteristics make it a challenge to enforce mission requirements (such as static margins and trim requirements) during design optimization. This low-boom design challenge is resolved by using reversed equivalent area targets for low-fidelity low-boom inverse design and a block coordinate optimization (BCO) method for multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO). The corresponding low-boom MDO problem includes aircraft mission constraints on ranges, cruise speeds, trim for low-boom cruise, static margins for takeoff/cruise/landing, takeoff/landing field lengths, approach velocity, and tail rotation angles for trim at takeoff/landing, as well as fuselage volume constraints for passengers and main gear storage. The BCO method is developed to optimally resolve the conflicts between the low-boom inverse design objective and other design constraints. This method is successfully applied to design a low-boom supersonic configuration that carries 40 passengers, flies a low-boom mission with cruise Mach of 1.6 and range of 2,500 nm, and cruises overwater at Mach 1.8 with range of 3,600 nm. The generated configuration satisfies all specified mission constraints and has the potential to match a reversed equivalent area target with ground noise level below 70 PLdB.

Multidisciplinary design optimization↗

Impact of Time-Dependent Reactor and Sensor Physics on Core Power Synthesis (Rev.1)

Online synthesis of power distribution is critical in the operation and control of nuclear power reactors to ensure that the core is operating within safety margins and to provide essential knowledge associated with the burnup of the fuel. In light-water reactors, power synthesis is achieved by using some a priori knowledge of the state of the reactor core and updating based on the signals coming from in-core sensors—namely, self-powered neutron detectors (SPNDs). This report examines the effects of fuel burnup and sensor degradation on the ability to accurately synthesize the power distribution in a pressurized water reactor (PWR), considering the typical low-enriched uranium (LEU, 3%-5% enrichment) fuel cycle as well as the higher enrichment LEU+ (5%-8% enrichment) fuel cycle. Several modeling tools were used to simulate power synthesis based on the responses of SPNDs, with emitters made out of Rh or V. A representative PWR LEU core was modeled using the Polaris/Purdue Advanced Reactor Core Simulator (PARCS) approach. The Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport 6 (MCNP6) code was used as well to calculate response functions between different segments of fuel to individual SPNDs; this is a crucial parameter for power synthesis. The Oak Ridge Isotope GENeration (ORIGEN) package in the Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code was used to model the time-dependent isotopic transmutation in the SPND emitters. All these data were fed into a custom code that enacted the point-based iterative method to simulate power synthesis. Developmental work was also performed on high-fidelity SPND models in the GEometry ANd Tracking 4 (Geant4) code, which enables higher-accuracy modeling of the current responses from SPNDs. In this work, five sets of time-dependent power synthesis test cases were conducted. In these test cases, systematic changes in the input conditions enabled an analysis of the effect of (1) slightly inaccurate a priori power distribution assumptions with respect to fuel burnup, (2) highly inaccurate a priori power distribution assumptions with respect to fuel burnup (such that burnup is not included in the a priori assumed distribution), and (3) differences between Rh and V SPNDs in terms of downstream consequences of the transmutation in the emitters and the extended nature of the LEU+ fuel cycle in comparison with LEU. The authors discovered that one may permissibly have slightly inaccurate a priori assumptions of the fuel burnup (such that the level of burnup may be slightly underapproximated or overapproximated by the accumulated burnup in approximately 9.3 full power days), but to not account for burnup at all in the a priori assumptions leads to severe levels of error, approaching 25% at maximum (for LEU). The authors also discovered that V SPNDs are extraordinarily robust in both the LEU and LEU+ fuel cycles considered in this modeling work, whereas Rh SPNDs undergo significant transmutation that can result in large errors in the synthesized power distribution.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Impact of Time Dependent Reactor and Sensor Physics on Core Power Synthesis

Online synthesis of the power distribution is critical in the operation and control of nuclear power reactors to ensure that the core is operating within safety margins, and to provide essential knowledge associated with the burnup of the fuel. In light water reactors (LWRs), power synthesis is achieved by using some a priori knowledge of the state of the reactor core and updating based on the signals coming from in-core sensors—namely, self-powered neutron detectors (SPNDs). This report aims to study the effects of fuel burnup and sensor degradation on the ability to accurately synthesize the power distribution in a LWR. Several modeling tools were used to simulate power synthesis based on the responses of SPNDs, with emitters made out of Rh or V. A representative pressurized water reactor low-enriched uranium (LEU) core was modeled using the Polaris/Purdue Advanced Reactor Core Simulator (PARCS) approach. The Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport 6 (MCNP6) code was used, as well, to calculate response functions between different segments of fuel to individual SPNDs; this is a crucial parameter for power synthesis. The Oak Ridge Isotope GENeration (ORIGEN) package in the Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code was used to model the time-dependent isotopic transmutation in the SPND emitters. All these data were fed into a custom code that enacted the point-based iterative (PBI) method to simulate power synthesis. Developmental work was also performed on high-fidelity SPND models in the GEometry ANd Tracking 4 (Geant4) code, which enables higher-accuracy modeling of the current responses from SPNDs. In this work, five sets of time-dependent power synthesis test cases were conducted. In these test cases, systematic changes in the input conditions enabled an analysis of the effect of (1) slightly inaccurate a priori power distribution assumptions with respect to fuel burnup, (2) highly inaccurate a priori assumptions with respect to fuel burnup (such that burnup is not included in the a priori assumed distribution), and (3) differences between Rh and V SPNDs in terms of downstream consequences of the transmutation in the emitters. The authors discovered that one may permissibly have slightly inaccurate a priori assumptions of the fuel burnup (such that the level of burnup may be slightly under- or over-approximated by the accumulated burnup in approximately 9.3 full power days), but to not account for burnup at all in the a priori assumption leads to severe levels of error, approaching 25% at maximum. The authors also discovered that V SPNDs are extraordinarily robust in the low-enriched uranium fuel cycle considered in this modeling work, whereas Rh SPNDs undergo significant transmutation that can result in large errors in the synthesized power distribution.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Maximum entropy deconvolution of the optical jet of 3C 273

The technique of maximum entropy image restoration is applied to the problem of deconvolving the point spread function from a deep, high-quality V band image of the optical jet of 3C 273. The resulting maximum entropy image has an approximate spatial resolution of 0.6 arcsec and has been used to study the morphology of the optical jet. Four regularly-spaced optical knots are clearly evident in the data, together with an optical 'extension' at each end of the optical jet. The jet oscillates around its center of gravity, and the spatial scale of the oscillations is very similar to the spacing between the optical knots. The jet is marginally resolved in the transverse direction and has an asymmetric profile perpendicular to the jet axis. The distribution of V band flux along the length of the jet, and accurate astrometry of the optical knot positions are presented.

Evans, I. N.↗

Deep Learning-Based Adaptive Remedial Action Scheme with Security Margin for Renewable-Dominated Power Grids

The Remedial Action Scheme (RAS) is designed to take corrective actions after detecting predetermined conditions to maintain system transient stability in large interconnected power grids. However, since RAS is usually designed based on a few selected typical operating conditions, it is not optimal in operating conditions that are not considered in the offline design, especially under frequently and dramatically varying operating conditions due to the increasing integration of intermittent renewables. The deep learning-based RAS is proposed to enhance the adaptivity of RAS to varying operating conditions. During the training, a customized loss function is developed to penalize the negative loss and suggest corrective actions with a security margin to avoid triggering under-frequency and over-frequency relays. Simulation results of the reduced United States Western Interconnection system model demonstrate that the proposed deep learning–based RAS can provide optimal corrective actions for unseen operating conditions while maintaining a sufficient security margin.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

AutoClass: A Bayesian Approach to Classification

We describe a Bayesian approach to the untutored discovery of classes in a set of cases, sometimes called finite mixture separation or clustering. The main difference between clustering and our approach is that we search for the "best" set of class descriptions rather than grouping the cases themselves. We describe our classes in terms of a probability distribution or density function, and the locally maximal posterior probability valued function parameters. We rate our classifications with an approximate joint probability of the data and functional form, marginalizing over the parameters. Approximation is necessitated by the computational complexity of the joint probability. Thus, we marginalize w.r.t. local maxima in the parameter space. We discuss the rationale behind our approach to classification. We give the mathematical development for the basic mixture model and describe the approximations needed for computational tractability. We instantiate the basic model with the discrete Dirichlet distribution and multivariant Gaussian density likelihoods. Then we show some results for both constructed and actual data.

Stutz, John↗

Effect of tectonic processes on biosphere–geosphere feedbacks across a convergent margin

The subsurface is among Earth’s largest biomes, but the extent to which microbial communities vary across tectonic plate boundaries or interact with subduction-scale geological processes remains unknown. Here we compare bacterial community composition with deep-subsurface geochemistry from 21 hot springs across the Costa Rican convergent margin. We find that cation and anion compositions of the springs reflect the dip angle and position of the underlying tectonic structure and also correlate with the bacterial community. Co-occurring microbial cliques related to cultured chemolithoautotrophs that use the reverse tricarboxylic acid cycle (rTCA) as well as abundances of metagenomic rTCA genes correlate with concentrations of slab-volatilized carbon. This, combined with carbon isotope evidence, suggests that fixation of slab-derived CO2 into biomass may support a chemolithoautotrophy-based subsurface ecosystem. We calculate that this forearc subsurface biosphere could sequester 1.4 × 10 9 to 1.4 × 10 10 mol of carbon per year, which would decrease estimates of the total carbon delivered to the mantle by 2 to 22%. Furthermore, based on the observed correlations, we suggest that distribution and composition of the subsurface bacterial community are probably affected by deep tectonic processes across the Costa Rican convergent margin and that, by sequestering carbon volatilized during subduction, these chemolithoautotrophic communities could in turn impact the geosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Local structure graph models with higher-order dependence

Local structure graph models (LSGMs) describe random graphs and networks as a Markov random field (MRF)—each graph edge has a specified conditional distribution dependent on explicit neighbourhoods of other graph edges. Centered parameterizations of LSGMs allow for direct control and interpretation of parameters for large- and small-scale structures (e.g., marginal means vs. dependence). Here, we extend this parameterization to account for triples of dependent edges and illustrate the importance of centered parameterizations for incorporating covariates and interpreting parameters. Using a MRF framework, common exponential random graph models are also shown to induce conditional distributions without centered parameterizations and thereby have undesirable features. This work attempts to advance graph models through conditional model specifications with modern parameterizations, covariates and higher-order dependencies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Characteristics of locational uncertainty marginal price for correlated uncertainties of variable renewable generation and demands

With the rapid increase of variable renewable energy sources in power systems, how to manage and price the uncertainty of renewable resources’ power outputs is becoming an urgent issue. Current market designs considering the uncertainties are mainly based on the probabilistic scenario set of demand and renewable energy resources power outputs. This consideration makes market designs vulnerable to three significant challenges when put into practice. First, the accurate probability distribution of renewable generation is hard to obtain in real-time. Second, it is challenging to clear the market timely with many scenarios to guarantee accuracy. Third, generation cost recovery cannot be guaranteed for some scenarios. To overcome these challenges, this paper proposes a locational uncertainty marginal price model to price the uncertainty explicitly based on a scenario-free stochastic market-clearing model. Instead of using the probabilistic scenario set, the uncertainty of renewable energy sources and loads is modeled with distributionally-robust chance constraints. The correlation of uncertainties can be endogenously modeled in both the market-clearing and the locational uncertainty marginal price formation. Furthermore, this paper proves that generation cost recovery, revenue adequacy, and partial market equilibrium can be achieved using the locational uncertainty marginal price model. Numerical results from both the small and large systems simulations validate that the generation cost recovery is maintained no matter the generation participates in uncertainty mitigation or not. The transmission congestion surplus is also allocated appropriately among loads, renewable energy sources, and financial transmission right owners.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

BeyondPlanck: I. Global Bayesian analysis of the Planck Low Frequency Instrument data

We describe the BEYONDPLANCK project in terms of our motivation, methodology, and main products, and provide a guide to a set of companion papers that describe each result in more detail. Building directly on experience from ESA’s Planck mission, we implemented a complete end-to-end Bayesian analysis framework for the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) observations. The primary product is a full joint posterior distribution P(ω | d), where ω represents the set of all free instrumental (gain, correlated noise, bandpass, etc.), astrophysical (synchrotron, free-free, thermal dust emission, etc.), and cosmological (cosmic microwave background – CMB – map, power spectrum, etc.) parameters. Some notable advantages of this approach compared to a traditional pipeline procedure are seamless end-to-end propagation of uncertainties; accurate modeling of both astrophysical and instrumental effects in the most natural basis for each uncertain quantity; optimized computational costs with little or no need for intermediate human interaction between various analysis steps; and a complete overview of the entire analysis process within one single framework. As a practical demonstration of this framework, we focus in particular on low-ℓ CMB polarization reconstruction with Planck LFI. In this process, we identify several important new effects that have not been accounted for in previous pipelines, including gain over-smoothing and time-variable and non-1/f correlated noise in the 30 and 44 GHz channels. Modeling and mitigating both previously known and newly discovered systematic effects, we find that all results are consistent with the ΛCDM model, and we constrained the reionization optical depth to τ = 0.066 ± 0.013, with a low-resolution CMB-based χ 2 probability to exceed of 32%. This uncertainty is about 30% larger than the official pipelines, arising from taking a more complete instrumental model into account. The marginal CMB solar dipole amplitude is 3362.7 ± 1.4 μK, where the error bar was derived directly from the posterior distribution without the need of any ad hoc instrumental corrections. We are currently not aware of any significant unmodeled systematic effects remaining in the Planck LFI data, and, for the first time, the 44 GHz channel is fully exploited in the current analysis. We argue that this framework can play a central role in the analysis of many current and future high-sensitivity CMB experiments, including LiteBIRD, and it will serve as the computational foundation of the emerging community-wide COSMOGLOBE effort, which aims to combine state-of-the-art radio, microwave, and submillimeter data sets into one global astrophysical model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Planning for the Evolution of the Electric Grid with a Long-Run Marginal Emission Rate [Slides]

NREL Webinar slide deck that summarizes the findings of a recent article published in iScience, "Planning for the evolution of the grid with a long-run marginal emission rate". The webinar focuses on a study of how well three different types of emissions factors can anticipate the electric-sector carbon emissions induced by different types of interventions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

On Anomaly Detection for Transactive Energy Systems with Competitive Market

Two anomaly-detection criteria are proposed for transactive energy systems with competitive markets. Participants of transactive energy systems seek an optimal power allocation through hybrid economic-control methods to facilitate the integration of various types of distributed energy resources to power distribution systems. In transactive energy systems, every participant is assumed to be a rational entity, and consumers have diminishing marginal utility and suppliers have increasing marginal cost. With the first proposed anomaly-detection criterion, the monotonicity of marginal cost and marginal utility are examined. The impact of line flow constraints is also taken into consideration. Then, the second anomaly-detection criterion is proposed for TESs with marginal cost and marginal utility which change faster than a certain rate. The second criterion is more accurate than the first one for TES with marginal cost and marginal utility which change faster than a certain rate, but it requires the knowledge of that rate. Neither criteria requires more data than those necessary to find the optimal power allocation and the market-clear price in a transactive energy system. Therefore, the proposed criteria do not disclose any more data than necessary. As the monotonicity of marginal cost and marginal utility in a TES with competitive markets results in convex objective functions in an optimization problem and strongly convex ones when marginal cost and marginal utility changes faster than a certain rate, the two detection criteria are also applicable to anomaly detection of general convex optimization problems. Simulations are carried out to show the efficacy of the proposed criteria to detect anomalies caused by cyberattacks.

Wang, Peng↗