Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Load flow”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Evolution of Permeability in Sandstone During Confined Brazilian Testing

Permeability measurements were made on sandstone during confined Brazilian strength tests. The test involves 50 mm diameter disk-shaped, jacketed samples that are subjected to confining stresses while they are diametrically loaded. Specially designed end caps allow for concurrent gas flow measurements. The test configuration allows for the samples to be subjected to a range of stresses, with the confining stress as the intermediate principal stress. Furthermore, the majority of the tests measured permeability during loading to failure in the confined extension region. The permeability of the sandstone sample increases significantly well before the peak load is reached due to newly formed microcracks that continue to coalesce and dilate with further loading. Permeability increases are inversely proportional to the intermediate principal stress as increased confining pressures suppress growth, coalescence, and dilation of microcracks. Additional testing includes unloading and reloading cycles prior to failure. With each unloading–reloading cycle, permeability at comparable stresses is increased compared to the previous cycle, consistent with increasing damage in the form of an expanding microcrack network.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tri-Level Linear Programming Model for Automatic Load Shedding Using Spectral Clustering

Traditional load shedding schemes can be inadequate in grids with high renewable penetration, leading to unstable events and unnecessary grid islanding. Although for both manual and automatic operating modes load shedding areas have been predefined by grid operators, they have remained fixed, and may be sub-optimal due to dynamic operating conditions. In this work, a distributed tri-level linear programming model for automatic load shedding to avoid system islanding is presented. Preventing islanding is preferred because it reduces the need for additional load shedding besides the disconnection of transmission lines between islands. This is crucial as maintaining the local generation-demand balance is necessary to preserve frequency stability. Furthermore, uneven distribution of generation resources among islands can lead to increased load shedding, causing economic and reliability challenges. This issue is further compounded in modern power systems heavily dependent on non-dispatchable resources like wind and solar. The upper-level model uses complex power flow measurements to determine the system areas to shed load depending on actual operating conditions using a spectral clustering approach. The mid-level model estimates the area system state, while the lower-level model determines the locations and load values to be shed. The solution is practical and promising for real-world applications.

Baquedano-Aguilar, Mario D.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modular high temperature gas reactor core modeling with RELAP5-3D/PHISICS – Optimization schemes for load following

The objective of this study is to develop a 3D/NK model to study the load following operation of a Modular High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (MHTGR). The selected design is the 350 MW prismatic, graphite moderated, helium cooled thermal reactor based on the MHTGR-350 transient benchmark led by the High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Methods Core Simulation Group at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in the framework of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD/NEA). This kind of reactor usually reacts very slowly to the perturbation of the core parameters due to the large amount of graphite in the core. This kind of behavior promotes the reactor stability but on the other hand limits the reactor load-following operability. Recently advances in gas reactor designs have made load-following in gas reactors a feasible and achievable goal. Modern nuclear reactors (such as the MHTGR-350) are designed to withstand the structural stresses associated with load-following. Operating the reactor in load-following mode will inevitably reduce the load factor. Although a higher load factor means more revenue and the best usage of the fuel, following the variable energy demand will increase the maximum achievable fraction of generated nuclear power, being no more limited to the base load power generation. In general, if low impact on material aging and the safe operability are demonstrated the plant economics will be minimally affected. In order to ensure that the system can be safely operated in a load-following mode an extensively study has been carried out. Some tests with linear coolant mass flow rate change demonstrated that the reactor behavior is suitable for operation in load following mode. This assumption has been confirmed by a 4 days load following transient test in which the reactor supplied the requested power with a negligible error.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Morphology of poly-3-hexyl-thiophene blends with styrene–isoprene–styrene block-copolymer elastomers from X-ray and neutron scattering

The nano- and micron scale morphology of poly(3-hexylthiophene) (P3HT) and polystyrene-block-polyisoprene-block-polystyrene (PS–PI–PS) elastomeric blends is investigated through the use of ultra-small and small angle X-ray and neutron scattering (USAXS, SAXS, SANS). It is demonstrated that loading P3HT into elastomer matrices is possible with little distortion of the elastomeric structure up to a loading of ~5 wt%. Increased loadings of conjugated polymer is found to significantly distort the matrix structure. Changes in processing conditions are also found to affect the blend morphology with especially strong dependence on processing temperature. Processing temperatures above the glass transition temperature (T g ) of polystyrene and the melting temperature (T m ) of the conjugated polymer additive (P3HT) creates significantly more organized mesophase domains. P3HT blends with PS–PI–PS can also be flow-aligned through processing, which results in an anisotropic structure that could be useful for the generation of anisotropic properties (e.g. conductivity). Moreover, the extent of flow alignment is significantly affected by the P3HT loading in the PS–PI–PS matrix. The work adds insight to the morphological understanding of a complex P3HT and PS–PI–PS polymer blend as conjugated polymer is added to the system. Here, we also provide studies isolating the effect of processing changes aiding in the understanding of the structural changes in this elastomeric conjugated polymer blend.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Protecting Customer Privacy Through Distributed Energy Resource Anonymization

Due to their stochastic nature, the increase of Renewable Energy Resources (RERs) as a primary source of energy for power grids creates challenges regarding the reliability and resilience of the system. In order to combat these obstacles, expansion of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) and their participation in Demand Response (DR) programs is necessary. Widespread participation requires prioritizing customer privacy and addressing concerns that may arise regarding communication between DERs and the Grid Service Provider (GSP). This paper discusses the use of flow reservation resources to split the operating cycles of DER load profiles into unique phases. The splitting of phases increases anonymization of the DERs by making it more difficult to determine the individual characteristics of the device. We discuss an example of this using simulated DER load profile data and examine the resulting effectiveness by using a machine learning algorithm for classification, called Support Vector Machine (SVM).

Distributed Energy Resource, Anonymization, Renewa↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cesium Removal Performance Comparisons of Crystalline Silicotitanate Media Batches with Savannah River Site Waste Simulant

The Tank Closure Cesium Removal (TCCR) system uses ion exchange columns filled with Crystalline Silicotitanate (CST) media to process radioactive waste solutions for the removal of Cs137. TCCR currently focuses on dissolving Savannah River Site (SRS) Tank 10H waste (primarily sodium salt cake solids) within the tank followed by at-tank ion exchange column treatment. Plans are underway to prepare and install a second TCCR unit at SRS. Capacity and particle size differences exist between archived (IE-911) and more recently-prepared CST media batches (9120- B and 9140-B). Side-by-side comparison testing was performed to evaluate the cesium removal performance of each batch to aid in selecting the preferred CST batch and media characteristics to load into the second TCCR unit. Batch contact equilibrium and flow-through column tests have been conducted with three CST batches using an SRS Average Simulant. Simulant batch contact equilibrium cesium loading results for the three CST batches (including two lots of one batch) are provided in Table ES-1. The 35 °C data indicates that the archived IE-911 batch has a higher cesium capacity than recently-prepared CST media and that the minor TCCR CST 9120-B media lot (2099000035) has similar cesium removal performance to the major TCCR lot (2099000034). Tests conducted at 25 ºC for the archived IE-911 CST batch indicated lower cesium removal performance with this simulant batch than was observed recently with a different SRS Average Simulant batch. A dilution factor (DF) is typically utilized when modeling engineered CST media cesium loading performance to account for mass contributions from the binder material. In cases where CST performance is lower than expected, this factor includes corrections for the binder and for low performance. The ZAM (Zheng, Anthony, and Miller) Isotherm Model DF values are provided in Table ES-1 for each simulant batch contact result. DF values near 0.5 were determined for the 9120-B and 9140-B CST batch contact tests while DF values near 0.6 (20% higher) were determined for the tests with IE-911. These dilution factors are lower than recently observed with a different SRS Average Simulant batch (9140-B DF = 0.68; IE-911 DF = 1.0). Based on these results, it appears that some component in the simulant solution used for equilibrium testing may have resulted in reduced cesium loading on the CST media.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Strongly Heated Turbulent Flow in a Channel with Pin Fins

Large-eddy simulations (LES) were performed to study the turbulent flow in a channel of height H with a staggered array of pin fins with diameter D = H/2 as a function of heating loads that are relevant to the cooling of turbine blades and vanes. The following three heating loads were investigated—wall-to-coolant temperatures of Tw/Tc = 1.01, 2.0, and 4.0 - where the Reynolds number at the channel inlet was 10,000 and the back pressure at the channel outlet was 1 bar. For the LES, two different subgrid-scale models—the dynamic kinetic energy model (DKEM) and the wall-adapting local eddy-viscosity model (WALE)—were examined and compared. This study was validated by comparing with data from direct numerical simulation and experimental measurements. The results obtained show high heating loads to create wall jets next to all heated surfaces that significantly alter the structure of the turbulent flow. Results generated on effects of heat loads on the mean and fluctuating components of velocity and temperature, turbulent kinetic energy, the anisotropy of the Reynolds stresses, and velocity-temperature correlations can be used to improve existing RANS models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the Feasibility of Market Manipulation and Energy Storage Arbitrage via Load-Altering Attacks

Around the globe, electric power networks are transforming into complex cyber–physical energy systems (CPES) due to the accelerating integration of both information and communication technologies (ICT) and distributed energy resources. While this integration improves power grid operations, the growing number of Internet-of-Things (IoT) controllers and high-wattage appliances being connected to the electric grid is creating new attack vectors, largely inherited from the IoT ecosystem, that could lead to disruptions and potentially energy market manipulation via coordinated load-altering attacks (LAAs). In this article, we explore the feasibility and effects of a realistic LAA targeted at IoT high-wattage loads connected at the distribution system level, designed to manipulate local energy markets and perform energy storage (ES) arbitrage. Realistic integrated transmission and distribution (T&D) systems are used to demonstrate the effects that LAAs have on locational marginal prices at the transmission level and in distribution systems adjacent to the targeted network.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity Analysis of Tunable Equation of State Material Model In Pulsed Mercury Target Simulation

A pulsed neutron spallation target is subjected to very short but intense loads from repeated proton pulses. Approximately 60% of the energy from each proton pulse is deposited into the mercury target material and the stainless-steel target structure, leading to a high-pressure region in both the stationary target structure and the flowing mercury. The high-pressure region propagates and leads to fluid-structure interaction. The resultant loading on the target structure containing liquid mercury is difficult to predict, although various simulation approaches and material models for the mercury have been tried. To date, the best match of simulation to experimental data is obtained by using an equation of state (EOS) material model with a specified tensile cutoff pressure, which simulates the cavitation threshold. The inclusion of a threshold to represent cavitation is key to the successful predictions of stress waves triggered by the high-energy pulse striking the mercury and vessel. However, recent measurements of target structure strain show that significant discrepancies remain between the measured and simulated strain values in the EOS mercury model. These differences grow when noncondensable helium gas is intentionally injected into the flowing mercury to reduce the loading on the structure. An EOS-based proportional–integral–derivative (PID) mercury model has been proposed to reduce the gap between the measured and simulated vessel strain responses for targets with gas injection. The conceptual and numerical description and initial investigation of the PID model are presented in previous work. Further studies of this PID model — including the sensitivity of the structure’s strain response to model parameters (the tensile cutoff, PID parameters Kp, Ki, and Kd) — are reported in this article. Results show the strain response is more sensitive to changes in the tensile cutoff value than to changes in the model parameters Kp, Ki, and Kd. These results will aid in future work where the model parameters will be optimized to match simulation data to strain measurements.

Lin, Lianshan↗
DOE OSTI2020

Aeroelastic Modeling and Full-Scale Loads Measurements for Investigation of Single-Axis PV Tracker Wind-Driven Dynamic Instabilities

While wind tunnel testing and proprietary industry modeling tools have been used for years to design and develop PV tracker systems, wind induced dynamic failures are becoming more prevalent and high visibility. Designers and manufactures have reacted by developing new systems or add-on products to improve system dynamics adding to overall system costs. To better understand the physics and aeroelastic behavior that leads to dynamic instabilities NREL researches have taken up a first of a kind study to both develop open source aeroelastic modeling tools and measure tracker loads on a single axis full-scale tracker system at a high wind site. These modeling tools can simulate the fluid-structure interaction driving torsional instabilities under a wide range of turbulent inflow conditions and stow angles. The results of these simulations reveal the flow features associated with panel rotation and the induced loads in the structure. The experimental load measurements can be used to validate models and provide a quantifiable understanding of tracker dynamics, critical loads paths, identify instability markers, inform resilient design, and suggest the most favorable stow approach.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Calibration of V-Notch and Compound Weirs for Subsurface Drainage Water Level Control Structures

Highlights Accurate discharge estimation is important when evaluating edge-of-field conservation practices. V-notch weir equations were developed for three sizes of subsurface drainage water level control structures. Compound weir equations were developed for subsurface drainage water level control structures. The compound weir equation accurately estimates discharge for flows within and overtopping the V-notch. Abstract.Numerous edge-of-field conservation practices use subsurface drainage water level control structures to monitor water levels and estimate discharge. In a control structure, procedures for calculating discharge when flow depth (head) exceeds the V-notch depth and overflows in the rectangular portion of the compound weir (CW) are ambiguous. In this study, we developed calibration equations for V-notch weirs in Agri Drain inline water level control structures of different sizes for flows within the V-notch and overtopping flow events. The discharge equation for overtopping events (Q CW , L s -1 ) was determined as: Q CW = a 1 (h b1 -h 1 b1 )+a 2 (W e -W v )h 1 b2 , where h and h 1 are heads above vertex/bottom and top of V-notch (cm), respectively, W is the effective crest width of rectangular weir (cm), W v is the top width of V-notch (cm), a 1 and b 1 are parameters for V-notch weir obtained by calibration, and a 2 and b 2 are calibration parameters for rectangular weir obtained from literature. Results were compared with a weir equation available in the literature (Q V+R ), which combines a V-notch equation with a head equal to V-depth and a rectangular weir equation for flow above V-depth. Discharge at overflow was estimated with high accuracy with Q CW, whereas Q V+R underestimated discharge (e.g., PBIAS of 0.67% vs. 17.82% for a 15.2 cm structure). An example using Q V+R resulted in a 14% lower annual estimation of nitrate-N load diverted to a saturated buffer than Q CW due to underestimation of drainage discharge during overflow events. Results suggest that the developed equation (Q CW ) accurately estimates discharge and will thus improve the estimated N load compared to Q V+R . Keywords: Compound weir, Flow monitoring, Subsurface drainage, V-notch weir, Water level control structure, Weir calibration.

Agriculture↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupled Thermo-Hydrological-Mechanical-Chemical Behavior of Anisotropic Granite for Geologic Disposal of High-Level Radioactive Waste: A Core-Scale Laboratory Investigation

The coupled thermo-hydrological-mechanical-chemical (THMC) behavior of rock within an Excavation Damaged Zone (EDZ) is critical for the safety and long-term performance of a geological repository for high-level radioactive wastes. While many laboratory experiments have been conducted to investigate EDZ rocks, the flow and deformation characteristics resulting from anisotropic rock textures and microcrack distribution under triaxial loading and elevated temperatures remain poorly understood. Particularly, cracks at various scales serve as fast paths for fluid flow and solute transport and present as focal points of mechanical weakness, which complicate the coupled THMC processes in anisotropic EDZ rocks and challenge modeling predictions. Here, in this study, a series of core-scale experiments was conducted on three granite samples under repository-relevant conditions. These rock samples were obtained from the Grimsel Underground Research Laboratory (URL), featured by anisotropic minerals (represented by bedding layers) and microcrack distributions and coarse cm-scale grain sizes. During the experiments, samples were subjected to an elevated temperature at 90 °C and different triaxial loading conditions either by radial (normal to bedding layers) or axial (parallel to bedding layers) compaction. Water was injected into the samples, and the rock permeability evolutions and effluent water chemistry were monitored closely. For intact samples, thermal expansion of minerals at 90 °C resulted in a large, 75% irreversible permeability reduction and rock strengthening under radial compaction, while thermal impact was limited to a 15% permeability reduction under axial compaction. In contrast, for a sample containing open cracks, the growth of fractures during the experiment resulted in an abrupt permeability increase and fast failure at 90 °C. The effluent water chemistry indicates much more considerable mineral dissolution from large shear sliding than that in rocks dominated by mechanical compaction. These results helped better understand the coupled THMC processes in anisotropic rocks containing cracks, evaluate the behaviors of EDZ rocks, and predict the long-term evolution of EDZ for the performance of the repositories.

Coupled THMC processes↗
DOE OSTI2022

A concurrent irradiation-mechanics multiscale coupling model

The vast majority of our current knowledge regarding the basic mechanisms controlling irradiation effect on mechanical properties is based almost entirely on the results of post-irradiation experiments or theoretical models. However, the concurrent effects of irradiation, mechanical stress, and thermal damage on the failure phenomena of materials and components remain largely unexplored due to its internal multiscale-multiphysics coupling nature. Here, we present here a concurrent irradiation-mechanics multiscale coupling model. The concurrent evolutions of nanoscale irradiation defect clusters, microscale dislocation configurations, and mechanical responses are well captured based on coupling cluster dynamics, discrete dislocation dynamics, and the finite element methods using an effective time marching scheme. Model predictions of defect densities and size are in general agreement with experimental observations. Irradiation hardening is shown to take place also in samples undergoing concurrent irradiation-mechanical loading, similar to samples tested post-irradiation. However, the occurrence of plastic flow localization and dislocation channel formation is not accompanied with apparent yield drop (softening) under concurrent irradiation-mechanical loading conditions, which is different from the post-irradiation case.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydrodynamic Analysis and Optimization of Aquantis Marine Turbine: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

The primary aim of this proposal is to improve the accurate prediction of hydrodynamic performance and dynamic load responses of the AQ10 floating axial-flow tidal turbine with a tri-cat mooring configuration. The validation of reduced-order modeling approaches with high-fidelity model will be implemented. Additionally, the frequency response domain, Response Amplitude Floating Wind (RAFT) toolbox plus an optimizer expanded for marine hydrokinetic turbines under the Submarine Hydrokinetic And Riverine Kilo-megawatt. Systems (SHARKS) program will be used for designing and exploring different key design parameters (platform dimension, mooring layout and its parameters) of next marine hydrokinetic (MHK) turbine generation.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solid state protective smart plug device

A wireless-controlled smart plug device and methods of use and operation, using a solid state switch to provide electrical power from an outlet to a load, and provide protection against overload, short circuit, ground, arc, or voltage surge faults. The switch includes a bidirectional semiconductor switch with two back-to-back connected transistors, such as silicon power MOSFETs, silicon insulated-gate bipolar transistors (IGBTs), silicon carbide (SiC) transistors, or gallium nitride (GaN) transistors, each configured to control the current flow from the electrical receptacle to the external electrical load.

Shen, Zheng↗
DOE OSTI2023

MRT 7365: Power flow physics and key physics phenomena

The Z accelerator at Sandia National Laboratories conducts z-pinch experiments at 26 MA in support of DOE missions in stockpile stewardship, dynamic materials, fusion, and other basic sciences. Increasing the current delivered to the z-pinch would extend our reach in each of these disciplines. To achieve increases in current and accelerator efficiency, a fraction of Z’s shots are set aside for research into transmission-line power flow. These shots, with supporting simulations and theory, are incorporated into this Advanced Diagnostics milestone report. The efficiency of Z is reduced as some portion of the total current is shunted across the transmission-line gaps prior to the load. This is referred to as “current loss”. Electrode plasmas have long been implicated in this process, so the bulk of dedicated power-flow experiments are designed to measure the plasma environment. The experimental analyses are enhanced by simulations conducted using realistic hardware and Z voltage pulses. In the same way that diagnostics are continually being improved for sensitivity and resolution, the modeling capability is continually being improved to provide faster and more realistic simulations. The specifics of the experimental hardware, diagnostics, simulations, and algorithm developments are provided in this report. The combined analysis of simulation and data confirms that electrode plasmas have the most detrimental impact on current delivery. Experiments over the last three years have tested the theoretical current-loss mechanisms of enhanced ion current, plasma gap closure, and Hall-related current. These mechanisms are not mutually exclusive and may be coincident in the final feed as well as in upstream transmission lines. The final-feed geometries tested here, however, observe lower-density plasmas without dominant ion currents which is consistent with a Hall-related current. The picture of plasma formation and transport formed from experiment and simulation is informing hardware designs being fielded on Z now and being proposed for the Next-Generation Pulsed Power (NGPP) facility. In this picture, the strong magnetic fields that heat the electrodes above particle emission thresholds also confine the charged particles near the surface. Some portion of the plasmas thus formed is transported into the transmission-line gap under the force of the electric field, with aid from plasma instabilities. The gap plasmas are then transported towards the load by a cross-field drift, where they accumulate and contribute to a likely Hall-related cross-gap current. The achievements in experimental execution, model validation, and physical analysis presented in this report set the stage for continued progress in power flow and load diagnostics on Z. The planned shot schedule for Z and Mykonos will provide data for extrapolation to higher current to ensure the predicted performance and efficiency of a NGPP facility.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dual-Fuel Ammonia Equivalence Ratio Sweep Data

Ammonia (NH3) has garnered significant interest as an alternative fuel for meeting international emissions reduction mandates in sectors with high weight and distance requirements, such as shipping. Technical barriers and unanswered questions remain on the combustion strategies that can maximize ammonia utilization and minimize emissions. Prior research studies at the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory have shown strong performance with NH3 under dual-fuel mode using conventional diesel combustion (CDC) manifold air pressure settings. Diesel airflow was initially used to simplify retrofitting (no turbocharger modification), which resulted in air-fuel equivalence ratios (λ) greater than 1.5. To characterize potential improvements in dual-fuel NH3 combustion performance at richer in-cylinder conditions, a global λ sweep compared the use of early (E-pilot) and late (L-pilot) single diesel injections. The experiments were conducted at 1200 RPM and 12.8 ± 0.2 bar (75 % load), and λ was varied by decreasing the commanded air flow to the engine at greater than 90 % ammonia energy substitution level. A diesel injection timing sweep was conducted for both the injection strategies at fixed λ, and the timing with the lowest engine-out N2O emissions was identified. The results indicated an optimal balance between CO2,eq and thermal efficiency benefits both E-pilot and L-pilot injection strategy cases compared with CDC at a λ of 1.4. The indicated nitrogen-based emissions exhibited a strong correlation to the ratio of CA5–50 and ignition delay for L-pilot, but no apparent trend emerged for the E-pilot injection strategy at the tested boundary conditions. This dataset includes the raw experimental data and documentation of the experiment conditions and methods.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dual Impacts of Space Heating Electrification and Climate Change Increase Uncertainties in Peak Load Behavior and Grid Capacity Requirements in Texas

Around 60% of households in Texas currently rely on electricity for space heating. As decarbonization efforts increase, non‐electrified households could adopt electric heat pumps, significantly increasing peak (highest) electricity demand in winter. Simultaneously, anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase temperatures, the potential for summer heat waves, and associated electricity demand for cooling. Uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of these concurrent changes raises questions about how they will jointly affect the seasonality of peak demand, firm capacity requirements, and grid reliability. This study investigates the net effects of residential space heating electrification and climate change on long‐term demand patterns and load shedding potential, using climate change projections, a predictive load model, and a direct current optimal power flow (DCOPF) model of the Texas grid. Results show that full electrification of residential space heating by replacing existing fossil fuel use with higher efficiency heat pumps could significantly improve reliability under hotter futures. Less efficient heat pumps may result in more severe winter peaking events and increased reliability risks. As heating electrification intensifies, system planners will need to balance the potential for greater resource adequacy risk caused by shifts in seasonal peaking behavior alongside the benefits (improved efficiency and reductions in emissions).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗