System identification and pattern recognition.
Input/output model of system with finite settling time, using error correcting technique employed in pattern recognition
PATTERN RECOGNITION↗
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Results for “Learning with errors”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Hypothesis behavior in a concept-learning task with probabilistic feedback.
Behavior predictions in concept learning task with probabilistic feedback, discussing error correlation with mathematical models hypothesis
Haygood, R. C.↗
Discrete time learning control in nonlinear systems
In this paper digital learning control methods are developed primarily for use in single-input, single-output nonlinear dynamic systems. Conditions for convergence of the basic form of learning control based on integral control concepts are given, and shown to be satisfied by a large class of nonlinear problems. It is shown that it is not the gross nonlinearities of the differential equations that matter in the convergence, but rather the much smaller nonlinearities that can manifest themselves during the short time interval of one sample time. New algorithms are developed that eliminate restrictions on the size of the learning gain, and on knowledge of the appropriate sign of the learning gain, for convergence to zero error in tracking a feasible desired output trajectory. It is shown that one of the new algorithms can give guaranteed convergence in the presence of actuator saturation constraints, and indicate when the requested trajectory is beyond the actuator capabilities.
Longman, Richard W.↗
Search-based model identification of smart-structure damage
This paper describes the use of a combined model and parameter identification approach, based on modal analysis and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, for identifying damage or flaws in a rotating truss structure incorporating embedded piezoceramic sensors. This smart structure example is representative of a class of structures commonly found in aerospace systems and next generation space structures. Artificial intelligence techniques of classification, heuristic search, and an object-oriented knowledge base are used in an AI-based model identification approach. A finite model space is classified into a search tree, over which a variant of best-first search is used to identify the model whose stored response most closely matches that of the input. Newly-encountered models can be incorporated into the model space. This adaptativeness demonstrates the potential for learning control. Following this output-error model identification, numerical parameter identification is used to further refine the identified model. Given the rotating truss example in this paper, noisy data corresponding to various damage configurations are input to both this approach and a conventional parameter identification method. The combination of the AI-based model identification with parameter identification is shown to lead to smaller parameter corrections than required by the use of parameter identification alone.
Glass, B. J.↗
Learning control for robotic manipulators with sparse data
Learning control algorithms have been proposed for error compensation in repetitive robotic manipulator tasks. It is shown that the performance of such control algorithms can be seriously degraded when the feedback data they use is relatively sparse in time, such as might be provided by vision systems. It is also shown that learning control algorithms can be modified to compensate for the effects of sparse data and thereby yield performance which approaches that of systems without limitations on the sensory information available for control.
Morita, Atsushi↗
Uncertainty quantification for deep learning in particle accelerator applications
With the advent of increased computational resources and improved algorithms, machine learning-based models are being increasingly applied to complex problems in particle accelerators. However, such data-driven models may provide overly confident predictions with unknown errors and uncertainties. For reliable deployment of machine learning models in high-regret and safety-critical systems such as particle accelerators, estimates of prediction uncertainty are needed along with accurate point predictions. In this investigation, we evaluate Bayesian neural networks (BNN) as an approach that can provide accurate predictions along with reliably quantified uncertainties for particle accelerator problems, and compare their performance with bootstrapped ensembles of neural networks. We select three accelerator setups for this evaluation: a storage ring, a photoinjector, and a linac. The problems span different data volumes and dimensionalities (e.g., scalar predictions as well as image outputs). It is found that BNN provide accurate predictions of the mean along with reliable estimates of predictive uncertainty across the test cases. In this vein, BNN may offer an attractive alternative to deterministic deep learning tools to generate accurate predictions with quantified uncertainties in particle accelerator applications.
43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
SPIDARman: System-Level Physics-Informed Detection of Anomalies in Reactor Collected Data Considering Human Errors
In nuclear power plants (NPPs), anomalies arising from sensors or human errors (HEs) can undermine the performance and reliability of plant operations. Anomaly detection models can be employed to detect sensor errors and HEs. Additionally, physics-informed machine learning models can utilize the known physics of the system, as described by mathematical equations, to ensure that sensor values are consistent with physical laws. Hence, we propose SPIDARman: System-level Physics-Informed Detection of Anomalies in Reactor Collected Data Considering Human Errors, a holistic physics-informed anomaly detection approach based on generative adversarial networks (GANs) to detect anomalies in both automatically collected sensor data and manually collected surveillance data. Here we test our approach on data collected from a flow loop testbed, showcasing its potential to detect anomalies. Results demonstrate that the proposed model performs better than the baseline GAN-based models in detecting sensor and surveillance anomalies, suggesting the potential of physics-informed anomaly detection GAN models in NPPs.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Stable Simulation of the Community Atmosphere Model Using Machine‐Learning Physical Parameterization Trained With Experience Replay
In recent years, machine learning (ML) models have been used to improve physical parameterizations of general circulation models (GCMs). A significant challenge of integrating ML models into GCMs is the online instability when they are coupled for long‐term simulation. We present a new strategy that demonstrates robust online stability when the physical parameterization package of an atmospheric GCM is replaced by a deep ML model. The method uses experience replay with a multistep training scheme of the ML model in which the model's own output at the previous time step is used in the training. Predicted physics tendencies in the replay buffer with the most recent errors in the training iterations are reused, making the ML model learn from its own errors. The training method reduces the gap between the offline and online environments of the ML model. The method is used to train the ML model as the physical parameterization of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) with training data from the Multi‐scale Modeling Framework high resolution simulations. Three 6‐year online simulations of the CAM5 are carried out by using the ML physics package. The simulated spatial distributions of precipitation, surface temperature and zonally averaged atmospheric fields demonstrate overall better accuracy than that of the standard CAM5 and benchmark model even without the use of additional physical constraints or tuning. This work is the first to demonstrate a solution to address the online instability problem in climate modeling with ML physics by using experience replay.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Quantifying uncertainties and correlations in the nuclear-matter equation of state
We perform statistically rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ) for chiral effective field theory (χ EFT) applied to infinite nuclear matter up to twice nuclear saturation density. The equation of state (EOS) is based on high-order many-body perturbation theory calculations with nucleon-nucleon and three-nucleon interactions up to fourth order in the χ EFT expansion. From these calculations our newly developed Bayesian machine-learning approach extracts the size and smoothness properties of the correlated EFT truncation error. Furthermore, we then propose a novel extension that uses multitask machine learning to reveal correlations between the EOS at different proton fractions. The inferred in-medium χ EFT breakdown scale in pure neutron matter and symmetric nuclear matter is consistent with that from free-space nucleon-nucleon scattering. These significant advances allow us to provide posterior distributions for the nuclear saturation point and propagate theoretical uncertainties to derived quantities: the pressure and incompressibility of symmetric nuclear matter, the nuclear symmetry energy, and its derivative. Our results, which are validated by statistical diagnostics, demonstrate that an understanding of truncation-error correlations between different densities and different observables is crucial for reliable UQ. The methods developed here are publicly available as annotated Jupyter notebooks.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Multi-Objective Adaptive Mesh Refinement Using Reinforcement Learning
Finite element methods approximate the solution to a partial differential equation (PDE) on a mesh consisting of many elements. In general, using more, smaller elements results in a lower error in the approximation. However, it is often possible to lower the error substantially by only refining, or decreasing the size of, the few elements in the mesh that have the highest error. Adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) is a process that selectively refines regions of a mesh with high error to achieve a desired accuracy in as few degrees of freedom (DOFs) as possible. AMR is favorable compared to uniform refinement, which refines all elements of the mesh equally, because it can often achieve the same accuracy without wasting extra computation time on refinement of elements that already have low error. However, it is difficult to know which elements to refine. In this report we explore ways to choose which elements to refine such that we minimize both the resulting error and the cumulative DOFs used in computation. In particular, we introduce a Pareto-front learning algorithm that trains a policy to give the optimal refinement actions to minimize the cumulative DOFs used to achieve a given target error. Such a policy is useful because it can be deployed on many different problem types where different accuracy levels are desired. Furthermore, training a single policy for a range of target errors allows us to use transfer learning to reduce the required training time.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Deep Learning Advances Arctic River Water Temperature Predictions
The accelerated warming in the Arctic poses serious risks to freshwater ecosystems by altering streamflow and river thermal regimes. However, limited research on Arctic River water temperatures exists due to data scarcity and the absence of robust methodologies, which often focus on large, major river basins. To address this, we leveraged the newly released, extensive AKTEMP data set and advanced machine learning techniques to develop a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. By incorporating ERA5-Land reanalysis data and integrating physical understanding into data-driven processes, our model advanced river water temperature predictions in ungauged, snow- and permafrost-affected basins in Alaska. Our model outperformed existing approaches in high-latitude regions, achieving a median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.95 and root mean squared error of 1.0°C. The LSTM model learned air temperature, soil temperature, solar radiation, and thermal radiation—factors associated with energy balance—were the most important drivers of river temperature dynamics. Soil moisture and snow water equivalent were highlighted as critical factors representing key processes such as thawing, melting, and groundwater contributions. Glaciers and permafrost were also identified as important covariates, particularly in seasonal river water temperature predictions. Our LSTM model successfully captured the complex relationships between hydrometeorological factors and river water temperatures across varying timescales and hydrological conditions. This scalable and transferable approach can be potentially applied across the Arctic, offering valuable insights for future conservation and management efforts.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Preliminary Work for Examining the Scalability of Reinforcement Learning
Researchers began studying automated agents that learn to perform multiple-step tasks early in the history of artificial intelligence (Samuel, 1963; Samuel, 1967; Waterman, 1970; Fikes, Hart & Nilsonn, 1972). Multiple-step tasks are tasks that can only be solved via a sequence of decisions, such as control problems, robotics problems, classic problem-solving, and game-playing. The objective of agents attempting to learn such tasks is to use the resources they have available in order to become more proficient at the tasks. In particular, each agent attempts to develop a good policy, a mapping from states to actions, that allows it to select actions that optimize a measure of its performance on the task; for example, reducing the number of steps necessary to complete the task successfully. Our study focuses on reinforcement learning, a set of learning techniques where the learner performs trial-and-error experiments in the task and adapts its policy based on the outcome of those experiments. Much of the work in reinforcement learning has focused on a particular, simple representation, where every problem state is represented explicitly in a table, and associated with each state are the actions that can be chosen in that state. A major advantage of this table lookup representation is that one can prove that certain reinforcement learning techniques will develop an optimal policy for the current task. The drawback is that the representation limits the application of reinforcement learning to multiple-step tasks with relatively small state-spaces. There has been a little theoretical work that proves that convergence to optimal solutions can be obtained when using generalization structures, but the structures are quite simple. The theory says little about complex structures, such as multi-layer, feedforward artificial neural networks (Rumelhart & McClelland, 1986), but empirical results indicate that the use of reinforcement learning with such structures is promising. These empirical results make no theoretical claims, nor compare the policies produced to optimal policies. A goal of our work is to be able to make the comparison between an optimal policy and one stored in an artificial neural network. A difficulty of performing such a study is finding a multiple-step task that is small enough that one can find an optimal policy using table lookup, yet large enough that, for practical purposes, an artificial neural network is really required. We have identified a limited form of the game OTHELLO as satisfying these requirements. The work we report here is in the very preliminary stages of research, but this paper provides background for the problem being studied and a description of our initial approach to examining the problem. In the remainder of this paper, we first describe reinforcement learning in more detail. Next, we present the game OTHELLO. Finally we argue that a restricted form of the game meets the requirements of our study, and describe our preliminary approach to finding an optimal solution to the problem.
Clouse, Jeff↗
Atikokan Digital Twin: Machine learning in a biomass energy system
The Atikokan Generating Station, operated by Ontario Power Generation, has a 200 MW, biomass-fired tower boiler that operates on a dispatch schedule with a five-minute cycle. The boiler is generally operated in the range of 40–100 MW using two of five burner levels. In order to optimize boiler performance, we propose the implementation of a unique digital twin. Our digital twin abstraction couples Bayesian inference from science-based models and from observations (machine learning) with decision theory to predict operating-variable set points that optimize the physical asset (the boiler) in the presence of uncertainty (artificial intelligence). We focus this paper on the continuous Bayesian machine learning part of the Atikokan Digital Twin; we discuss decision theory in a companion paper. We identify and learn about 12 operational, model, and measured-output parameters and their uncertainties from high-fidelity, science-based simulations of the Atikokan boiler and from the observed measurements at the power plant. Since the goal of the Atikokan Digital Twin is to implement it online in real time, we require fast function evaluations for the quantities of interest extracted from the simulations in the Bayesian analysis. We use Gaussian process regression/interpolation to create accurate, robust surrogate models. We define the Bayesian priors and likelihood function and solve for the posterior distributions of the 12 parameters. Here we then propagate these distributions (i.e., parameters with uncertainty) into the predicted distributions of 790 quantities of interest to learn about the relative importance of various sources of error including experimental, model, and operating-parameter errors.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Analytic Theory for the Dynamics of Wide Quantum Neural Networks
Here, parametrized quantum circuits can be used as quantum neural networks and have the potential to outperform their classical counterparts when trained for addressing learning problems. To date, much of the results on their performance on practical problems are heuristic in nature. In particular, the convergence rate for the training of quantum neural networks is not fully understood. Here, we analyze the dynamics of gradient descent for the training error of a class of variational quantum machine learning models. We define wide quantum neural networks as parametrized quantum circuits in the limit of a large number of qubits and variational parameters. Then, we find a simple analytic formula that captures the average behavior of their loss function and discuss the consequences of our findings. For example, for random quantum circuits, we predict and characterize an exponential decay of the residual training error as a function of the parameters of the system. Finally, we validate our analytic results with numerical experiments.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Deep Learning Experiments for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts
Reducing tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecast errors is a challenging task that has interested the operational forecasting and research community for decades. To address this, we developed a deep learning (DL)-based multilayer perceptron (MLP) TC intensity prediction model. The model was trained using the global Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) predictors to forecast the change in TC maximum wind speed for the Atlantic basin. In the first experiment, a 24-h forecast period was considered. To overcome sample size limitations, we adopted a leave one year out (LOYO) testing scheme, where a model is trained using data from all years except one and then evaluated on the year that is left out. When tested on 2010–18 operational data using the LOYO scheme, the MLP outperformed other statistical–dynamical models by 9%–20%. Additional independent tests in 2019 and 2020 were conducted to simulate real-time operational forecasts, where the MLP model again outperformed the statistical–dynamical models by 5%–22% and achieved comparable results as HWFI. The MLP model also correctly predicted more rapid intensification events than all the four operational TC intensity models compared. In the second experiment, we developed a lightweight MLP for 6-h intensity predictions. When coupled with a synthetic TC track model, the lightweight MLP generated realistic TC intensity distribution in the Atlantic basin. Therefore, the MLP-based approach has the potential to improve operational TC intensity forecasts, and will also be a viable option for generating synthetic TCs for climate studies.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Accelerating Discovery of Atomistic Defects via Machine Learning
The quantification of defects such as vacancies in crystalline structures is a cornerstone of materials science research. Traditional efforts often rely on manual detection, a process that is time-intensive, prone to human error, and challenging to scale. Here we leverage machine learning (ML) methods to identify and quantify vacancies within a crystalline lattice, aiming to expedite detection while improving accuracy. Additionally, we explore the transferability of these ML techniques, identifying characteristics of atomistic imaging data that complicate this task. We show how the integration of ML can drive innovation, providing a powerful tool that will play an increasingly crucial role in the future of materials science.
2D materials↗
Density functional theory of water with the machine-learned DM21 functional
The delicate interplay between functional-driven and density-driven errors in density functional theory (DFT) has hindered traditional density functional approximations (DFAs) from providing an accurate description of water for over 30 years. Recently, the deep-learned DeepMind 21 (DM21) functional has been shown to overcome the limitations of traditional DFAs as it is free of delocalization error. To determine if DM21 can enable a molecular-level description of the physical properties of aqueous systems within Kohn–Sham DFT, we assess the accuracy of the DM21 functional for neutral, protonated, and deprotonated water clusters. Furthermore, we find that the ability of DM21 to accurately predict the energetics of aqueous clusters varies significantly with cluster size. Additionally, we introduce the many-body MB-DM21 potential derived from DM21 data within the many-body expansion of the energy and use it in simulations of liquid water as a function of temperature at ambient pressure. We find that size-dependent functional-driven errors identified in the analysis of the energetics of small clusters calculated with the DM21 functional result in the MB-DM21 potential systematically overestimating the hydrogen-bond strength and, consequently, predicting a more ice-like local structure of water at room temperature.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Multifidelity computing for coupling full and reduced order models
Hybrid physics-machine learning models are increasingly being used in simulations of transport processes. Many complex multiphysics systems relevant to scientific and engineering applications include multiple spatiotemporal scales and comprise a multifidelity problem sharing an interface between various formulations or heterogeneous computational entities. To this end, we present a robust hybrid analysis and modeling approach combining a physics-based full order model (FOM) and a data-driven reduced order model (ROM) to form the building blocks of an integrated approach among mixed fidelity descriptions toward predictive digital twin technologies. At the interface, we introduce a long short-term memory network to bridge these high and low-fidelity models in various forms of interfacial error correction or prolongation. The proposed interface learning approaches are tested as a new way to address ROM-FOM coupling problems solving nonlinear advection-diffusion flow situations with a bifidelity setup that captures the essence of a broad class of transport processes.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗