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At least 235 records · Page 13

An Assessment of Our Ability to Model the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere in Interactive Climate Models

The physics of the upper troposphere is dominated by the different phases of water, while the lower stratosphere is governed by the presence of ozone. The tropopause may be regarded as the layer which separates the regions where stratospheric and tropospheric processes dominate the physics, but it is clearly not a smooth transition level. Modelling this region in comprehensive climate models is complicated, partly because of the constraints inherent in numerical methods (such as the finite resolution used in models) and partly because of our incomplete knowledge of the physical and chemical interactions which occur (such as the phase transitions of water and the composition of aerosols). However, studies of stratospheric impacts on climate change clearly require the tropopause region to be modelled with a high degree of accuracy. This paper will examine how well we can currently model the structure and dynamics of the tropopause region; this includes some comparisons of the simulated atmospheric composition with observational estimates of these species, some studies of discrepancies between forecasts and observations in the Data Assimilation System of the Data Assimilation office, and inferences for sparsely observed quantities. The analysis will focus on meteorological quantities, physical forcing mechanisms, and the transport and interactions of trace species.

Pawson, Steven↗

Constraining Stellar Photospheres as an Essential Step for Transmission Spectroscopy of Small Exoplanets

Transiting exoplanets offer a unique opportunity to study the atmospheres of terrestrial worlds in other systems in the coming decade. By absorbing and scattering starlight, exoplanet atmospheres produce spectroscopic transit depth variations that allow us to probe their physical structures and chemical compositions. These same variations, however, can be introduced by the photospheric heterogeneity of the host star (i.e., the transit light source effect). Recent modeling efforts and increasingly precise observations are revealing that our understanding of transmission1spectra of the smallest transiting exoplanets will likely be limited by our knowledge of host star photospheres. Here we outline promising scientific opportunities for the next decade that can provide useful constraints on stellar photospheres and inform interpretations of transmission spectra of the smallest(R < 4R) exoplanets. We identify and discuss four primary opportunities: (1) refining stellar magnetic active region properties through exoplanet crossing events; (2) spectral decomposition of active exoplanet host stars; (3) joint retrievals of stellar photospheric and planetary atmospheric properties with studies of transmission spectra; and (4) continued visual transmission spectroscopy studies to complement longer-wavelength studies from JWST. In this context, we make four recommendations to the Astro2020 Decadal Survey Committee:(1) identify the transit light source (TLS) effect as a challenge to precise exoplanet transmission spectroscopy and an opportunity ripe for scientific advancement in the coming decade; (2) include characterization of host star photospheric heterogeneity as part of a comprehensive research strategy for studying transiting exoplanets; (3) support the construction of ground-based extremely large telescopes (ELTs); (4) support multi-disciplinary research teams that bring together the heliophysics, stellar physics, and exoplanet communities to further exploit transiting exoplanets as spatial probes of stellar photospheres; and (5) support visual transmission spectroscopy efforts as complements to longer-wavelength observational campaigns with JWST.

Rackham, Benjamin V.↗

Constraining Stellar Photospheres as an Essential Step for Transmission Spectroscopy of Small Exoplanets

Transiting exoplanets offer a unique opportunity to study the atmospheres of terrestrial worlds in other systems in the coming decade. By absorbing and scattering starlight, exoplanet atmospheres produce spectroscopic transit depth variations that allow us to probe their physical structures and chemical compositions. These same variations, however, can be introduced by the photospheric heterogeneity of the host star (i.e., the transit light source effect). Recent modeling efforts and increasingly precise observations are revealing that our understanding of transmission spectra of the smallest transiting exoplanets will likely be limited by our knowledge of host star photospheres. Here we outline promising scientific opportunities for the next decade that can provide useful constraints on stellar photospheres and inform interpretations of transmission spectra of the smallest (R < 4R ) exoplanets. We identify and discuss four primary opportunities: (1) refining stellar magnetic active region properties through exoplanet crossing events; (2) spectral decomposition of active exoplanet host stars; (3) joint retrievals of stellar photospheric and planetary atmospheric properties with studies of transmission spectra; and (4) continued visual transmission spectroscopy studies to complement longer-wavelength studies from JWST. In this context, we make four recommendations to the Astro2020 Decadal Survey Committee: (1) identify the transit light source (TLS) effect as a challenge to precise exoplanet transmission spectroscopy and an opportunity ripe for scientific advancement in the coming decade; (2) include characterization of host star photospheric heterogeneity as part of a comprehensive research strategy for studying transiting exoplanets; (3) support the construction of ground-based extremely large telescopes (ELTs); (4) support multi-disciplinary research teams that bring together the heliophysics, stellar physics, and exoplanet communities to further exploit transiting exoplanets as spatial probes of stellar photospheres; and (5) support visual transmission spectroscopy efforts as complements to longer-wavelength observational campaigns with JWST.

Benjamin V. Rackham↗

The Relationship Between Two Methods for Estimating Uncertainties in Data Assimilation

This note examines the relationship between two apparently unrelated methods for estimating error statistics or uncertainties of relevance to data assimilation. The first method is due to (Desroziers et al., 2005, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 3385–3396; referred to as DBCP hereafter) and relies on residual statistics readily available from data assimilation applications. The second method, the three- cornered hat (3CH) developed by Gray and Allan (1974, IEEE 28th Annual Symp. Freq. Control, 243–246), only recently applied to atmospheric sciences, uses three data sets and can derive estimates of relevant error uncertainties as well. The usefulness of both methods lies in them not requiring knowledge of the true value of the quantities at play. DBCP derives its results by relying explicitly on the constraints as- sociated with the data assimilation minimization problem; 3CH is general and its estimates hold as long as errors in the three data sets of choice are uncorrelated. Establishing the relationship between the methods requires applying the 3CH approach to the same observation, background, and analysis data sets used by DBCP. In this case, the same assumptions of DBCP on residual errors allow for cancellation of error cross–covariance terms in 3CH such that two of its corners derive identical estimates for observation and background error covariances as those of DBCP. The error cross–covariance terms associated with the third corner are shown to add up to twice the analysis error covariance so that the 3CH estimate for the third corner recovers the negative of the analysis error covariance. Illustrations of these findings are provided by deriving uncertainties for radio occultation bending angles.

Ricardo Todling↗

Turbulent Transport Studies at ASDEX Upgrade Enabled by Correlation Electron Cyclotron Emission and nT-phase Diagnostic. Final report

Work performed on project titled, "Turbulent Transport Studies at ASDEX Upgrade Enabled by Correlation Electron Cyclotron Emission and nT-phase Diagnostic". We conducted an integrated project of experiment and model validation at ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) to expand knowledge of the underlying physics of high-performance, ELM-free regimes suitable for long pulse operation. Both the I-mode and QH-mode high-confinement regimes have potential as operating scenarios in a future reactor. Additional fluctuation measurements provided critical constraints on transport models, and elucidate the transport mechanisms associated with benevolent quasi-coherent modes in the edge and pedestal region of QH-mode and I-mode. This research expanded knowledge of turbulent-transport in tokamaks in support of ITER and other burning plasma experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Evaluation of Digital Nautical Chart data for confirmation and expansion of GeoNames data

Here, this work examines how Digital Nautical Chart (DNC) data may contribute to the evolution and refinement of GeoNames data for near-shore features. GeoNames features are point data with one or more possible place names. DNC Earth Cover Text (ECRText) objects are map labels positioned nearby their real word counterpart. ECRText feature map position strikes a compromise between association with real features and cartographic readability. This work explores whether ECRText features can confirm (or expand names for) existing locations or contribute new locations through data conflation. Due to name variations and spatial position, conflating these data are nontrivial. Previous work engaged in a brief examination using the trigram string matching algorithm under coarse proximity constraints, indicating that ECRText could provide additional value to GeoNames. This work builds on that study, by engaging in a deeper examination of spatial proximity and exploring conflation agreement across an ensemble of string matching approaches. The result finds strong ensemble agreement about ECRText features which already exist in GeoNames but mixed results about which features contribute new information, as well as exploring why some of these matching techniques fail. With an eye toward automation, computational efficiency was found not to be a constraint in sustaining updates.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Reuse: A knowledge-based approach

This paper describes our research in automating the reuse process through the use of application domain models. Application domain models are explicit formal representations of the application knowledge necessary to understand, specify, and generate application programs. Furthermore, they provide a unified repository for the operational structure, rules, policies, and constraints of a specific application area. In our approach, domain models are expressed in terms of a transaction-based meta-modeling language. This paper has described in detail the creation and maintenance of hierarchical structures. These structures are created through a process that includes reverse engineering of data models with supplementary enhancement from application experts. Source code is also reverse engineered but is not a major source of domain model instantiation at this time. In the second phase of the software synthesis process, program specifications are interactively synthesized from an instantiated domain model. These specifications are currently integrated into a manual programming process but will eventually be used to derive executable code with mechanically assisted transformations. This research is performed within the context of programming-in-the-large types of systems. Although our goals are ambitious, we are implementing the synthesis system in an incremental manner through which we can realize tangible results. The client/server architecture is capable of supporting 16 simultaneous X/Motif users and tens of thousands of attributes and classes. Domain models have been partially synthesized from five different application areas. As additional domain models are synthesized and additional knowledge is gathered, we will inevitably add to and modify our representation. However, our current experience indicates that it will scale and expand to meet our modeling needs.

Iscoe, Neil↗

Nucleon axial-vector form factor and radius from future neutrino experiments

Precision measurements of antineutrino elastic scattering on hydrogen from future neutrino experiments offer a unique opportunity to access the low-energy structure of protons and neutrons. We discuss the determination of the nucleon axial-vector form factor and radius from antineutrino interactions on hydrogen that can be collected at the future Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility and study the sources of theoretical and experimental uncertainties. The projected accuracy would improve existing measurements by 1 order of magnitude and be competitive with contemporary lattice-QCD determinations, potentially helping to resolve the corresponding tension with measurements from (anti)neutrino elastic scattering on deuterium. We find that the current knowledge of the nucleon vector form factors could be one of the dominant sources of uncertainty. We also evaluate the constraints that can be simultaneously obtained on the absolute ν ¯ μ flux normalization. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A numerical investigation of planetesimal collision trajectories with a Moon accumulating in Earth orbit

In the scenario of lunar origin in which the Moon is assumed to have accreted most of its mass while in orbit about the Earth, ismals on the accrea knowledge of the relative impact rates of heliocentric planetting Earth and Moon is essential for any attempt to establish dynamical constraints on lunar origin. Numerical integrations of the regularized equations of motion for four bodies (Sun, Earth, Moon, planetismal) were done. A planetismal impact trajectory was calculated by assuming that the planetismal has hit the surface of the Moon at an assumed location, traveling in an assumed direction, and with an assumed impact speed. Next, the equations of motion were numerically integrated backward in time in order to determine from where the planetismal has come. In this way those volumes in heliocentric orbital element space which contribute trajectories that directly impact the Moon.

Cox, L. P.↗

PN velocity beneath Western New Mexico and Eastern Arizona

The experiment involved observing Pn arrivals on an areal array of 7 seismic stations located in the transition zone and along the Jemez lineament. Explosions in coal and copper mines in New Mexico and Arizona were used as energy sources as well as military detonations at White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico, Yuma, Arizona, and the Nevada Test Site. Very preliminary results suggest a Pn velocity of 7.94 km/s (with a fairly large uncertainty) beneath the study area. The Pn delay times, which can be converted to estimates of crustal thickness given knowledge of the velocity structure of the crust increase both to the north and east of Springerville, Arizona. As a constraint on the velocity of Pn, researchers analyzed the reversed refraction line GNOME-HARDHAT which passes through Springerville oriented NW to SE. This analysis resulted in a Pn velocity of 7.9-8.0 km/s for the transition zone. These preliminary results suggest that a normal Pn velocity might persist even though the crust thins (from north to south) by 15 km along the length of the Arizona-New Mexico border. If the upper mantle is currently hot anywhere in western New Mexico or eastern Arizona then the dimensions of the heat source (or sources) might be small compared to the intra-station distances of the seismic arrays used to estimate the velocity of Pn.

Jaksha, L. H.↗

Far-field mission planning for nap-of-the-earth flight

In the face of numerically superior hostile forces, deployment of individual vehicles to the right place, at the right time, and the ability to plan missions with less conservatism, will become significant force multipliers. Far-field mission planning is one of the enabling technologies that will facilitate force coordination through management of mission timeline, vehicle survivability and fuel constraints. On-board replanning is required to deal responsively with departures from nominal plan execution that result from imperfect knowledge of and temporal variability in the mission environment. The far-field planning problem is posed as a constrained optimization problem and algorithms and structural organization are proposed for the solution.

Deutsch, Owen L.↗

Multi-Impulse to Time Optimal Finite Burn Trajectory Conversion

A novel algorithm is presented that provides an improvement over a traditional parameter optimization method when solving time-optimal, finite-burn pseudo-rendezvous spacecraft trajectory problems. A hybrid optimization procedure is described that converts a set of multiple-impulses, representing high- or low-thrust maneuvers, to an exact time-optimal finite-burn trajectory for a thrust limited, constant exhaust velocity spacecraft. The Hybrid Method applies a control law derived from the Euler-Lagrange system of equations within the classical Indirect Method to a modern Direct Method. An iterative adjoint-control transformation and an evolving constraint vector are introduced to solve the optimal control two-point boundary value problem. This method requires no prior knowledge of the solution, which adds simplicity to the trajectory design process and aids automation. Examples are shown for low-thrust apogee raise maneuvers, non-coplanar Earth orbit transfers, and a modified Deep Space 1 low-thrust trajectory. A numerically significant improvement to objective cost is shown across all application problems compared to a traditional solution method, as well as a significant improvement to convergence speed for a select class of problems.

Joshua A Fogel↗

Reasoning about real-time systems with temporal interval logic constraints on multi-state automata

Models of real-time systems using a single paradigm often turn out to be inadequate, whether the paradigm is based on states, rules, event sequences, or logic. A model-based approach to reasoning about real-time systems is presented in which a temporal interval logic called TIL is employed to define constraints on a new type of high level automata. The combination, called hierarchical multi-state (HMS) machines, can be used to model formally a real-time system, a dynamic set of requirements, the environment, heuristic knowledge about planning-related problem solving, and the computational states of the reasoning mechanism. In this framework, mathematical techniques were developed for: (1) proving the correctness of a representation; (2) planning of concurrent tasks to achieve goals; and (3) scheduling of plans to satisfy complex temporal constraints. HMS machines allow reasoning about a real-time system from a model of how truth arises instead of merely depending of what is true in a system.

Gabrielian, Armen↗

The water use of data center workloads: A review and assessment of key determinants

The global importance of data center water use is increasing with the rapid growth of digitalization and artificial intelligence. This study analyzes the factors influencing workload-level water use, measured in liters consumed per workload, to guide water-saving strategies in data centers. Our findings reveal workload-level water use variations exceeding 10,000-fold, driven by over 1000-fold differences in water consumption per kilowatt hour of server electricity consumed and approximately 10-fold differences in server workload efficiency. Key determinants are ranked as server efficiency, electrical grid water consumption factors, server utilization, cooling system type, infrastructure efficiency, climate zone, inactive server percentage, and server refresh cycle. Notably, there is no single recipe for minimizing water use; instead, optimal outcomes depend on tailored combinations of these factors. This analysis addresses critical knowledge gaps by identifying the determinants of data center water use and exploring their achievable minima under diverse site-specific constraints.

Data centers↗

The Global Dynamical Atlas of the Milky Way Mergers: Constraints from Gaia EDR3–based Orbits of Globular Clusters, Stellar Streams, and Satellite Galaxies

The Milky Way halo was predominantly formed by the merging of numerous progenitor galaxies. However, our knowledge of this process is still incomplete, especially in regard to the total number of mergers, their global dynamical properties and their contribution to the stellar population of the Galactic halo. Here, we uncover the Milky Way mergers by detecting groupings of globular clusters, stellar streams, and satellite galaxies in action (J) space. While actions fully characterize the orbits, we additionally use the redundant information on their energy (E) to enhance the contrast between the groupings. For this endeavor, we use Gaia EDR3–based measurements of 170 globular clusters, 41 streams, and 46 satellites to derive their J and E. To detect groups, we use the ENLINK software, coupled with a statistical procedure that accounts for the observed phase-space uncertainties of these objects. We detect a total of N = 6 groups, including the previously known mergers Sagittarius, Cetus, Gaia–Sausage/Enceladus, LMS-1/Wukong, Arjuna/Sequoia/I'itoi, and one new merger that we call Pontus. All of these mergers, together, comprise 62 objects (≈25% of our sample). We discuss their members, orbital properties, and metallicity distributions. We find that the three most-metal-poor streams of our galaxy—"C-19" ([Fe/H] = –3.4 dex), "Sylgr" ([Fe/H] = –2.9 dex), and "Phoenix" ([Fe/H] = –2.7 dex)—are associated with LMS-1/Wukong, showing it to be the most-metal-poor merger. The global dynamical atlas of Milky Way mergers that we present here provides a present-day reference for galaxy formation models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Universal approximation of symmetric and anti-symmetric functions

In this work, we consider universal approximations of symmetric and anti-symmetric functions, which are important for applications in quantum physics, as well as other scientific and engineering computations. We give constructive approximations with explicit bounds on the number of parameters with respect to the dimension and the target accuracy ϵ. While the approximation still suffers from the curse of dimensionality, to the best of our knowledge, these are the first results in the literature with explicit error bounds for functions with symmetry or anti-symmetry constraints

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Enigma Version 12

Enigma Version 12 software combines model building, animation, and engineering visualization into one concise software package. Enigma employs a versatile user interface to allow average users access to even the most complex pieces of the application. Using Enigma eliminates the need to buy and learn several software packages to create an engineering visualization. Models can be created and/or modified within Enigma down to the polygon level. Textures and materials can be applied for additional realism. Within Enigma, these models can be combined to create systems of models that have a hierarchical relationship to one another, such as a robotic arm. Then these systems can be animated within the program or controlled by an external application programming interface (API). In addition, Enigma provides the ability to use plug-ins. Plugins allow the user to create custom code for a specific application and access the Enigma model and system data, but still use the Enigma drawing functionality. CAD files can be imported into Enigma and combined to create systems of computer graphics models that can be manipulated with constraints. An API is available so that an engineer can write a simulation and drive the computer graphics models with no knowledge of computer graphics. An animation editor allows an engineer to set up sequences of animations generated by simulations or by conceptual trajectories in order to record these to highquality media for presentation. Enigma Version 12 Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas 28 NASA Tech Briefs, September 2013 Planetary Protection Bioburden Analysis Program NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California This program is a Microsoft Access program that performed statistical analysis of the colony counts from assays performed on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) spacecraft to determine the bioburden density, 3-sigma biodensity, and the total bioburdens required for the MSL prelaunch reports. It also contains numerous tools that report the data in various ways to simplify the reports required. The program performs all the calculations directly in the MS Access program. Prior to this development, the data was exported to large Excel files that had to be cut and pasted to provide the desired results. The program contains a main menu and a number of submenus. Analyses can be performed by using either all the assays, or only the accountable assays that will be used in the final analysis. There are three options on the first menu: either calculate using (1) the old MER (Mars Exploration Rover) statistics, (2) the MSL statistics for all the assays, or This software implements penetration limit equations for common micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) shield configurations, windows, and thermal protection systems. Allowable MMOD risk is formulated in terms of the probability of penetration (PNP) of the spacecraft pressure hull. For calculating the risk, spacecraft geometry models, mission profiles, debris environment models, and penetration limit equations for installed shielding configurations are required. Risk assessment software such as NASA's BUMPERII is used to calculate mission PNP; however, they are unsuitable for use in shield design and preliminary analysis studies. The software defines a single equation for the design and performance evaluation of common MMOD shielding configurations, windows, and thermal protection systems, along with a description of their validity range and guidelines for their application. Recommendations are based on preliminary reviews of fundamental assumptions, and accuracy in predicting experimental impact test results. The software is programmed in Visual Basic for Applications for installation as a simple add-in for Microsoft Excel. The user is directed to a graphical user interface (GUI) that requires user inputs and provides solutions directly in Microsoft Excel workbooks. This work was done by Shannon Ryan of the USRA Lunar and Planetary Institute for Johnson Space Center. Further information is contained in a TSP (see page 1). MSC- 24582-1 Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) Shield Ballistic Limit Analysis Program Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas Commercially, because it is so generic, Enigma can be used for almost any project that requires engineering visualization, model building, or animation. Models in Enigma can be exported to many other formats for use in other applications as well. Educationally, Enigma is being used to allow university students to visualize robotic algorithms in a simulation mode before using them with actual hardware.

Shores, David↗

Knowledge-guided graph machine learning for spatially distributed prediction of daily discharge and nitrogen export dynamics

Spatially distributed prediction of streamflow and nitrogen export dynamics is essential for precision management of agricultural watersheds. While temporal deep learning models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) have shown strong performance at basin scales, their ability to generalize spatially is limited by insufficient representation of spatial dependencies and flow paths, particularly under data-scarce conditions. To address this gap, we propose HydroGraphNet, a knowledge-guided graph machine learning framework that integrates process-based knowledge and explicit spatial learning into temporal modeling. This framework incorporates directed graph topology to encode watershed connectivity and upstream inflows, with mass balance constraints to improve physical consistency. To enhance generalization in sparsely monitored regions, HydroGraphNet is pretrained on synthetic data generated by the SWAT+ (Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus) model. We evaluated HydroGraphNet in the Upper Sangamon River Basin (44 HUC-12 subwatersheds, 2001–2020) against two LSTM baselines: a lumped basin-level model and a distributed variant. When benchmarked on SWAT+ simulations in pretraining, HydroGraphNet improved test NSEs by 8.9% (discharge) and 13.7% (NO₃–N load) in temporal extrapolation, and by 27.1% and 34.7% in spatial extrapolation, relative to the Lumped LSTM baseline. After fine-tuning with USGS monitoring data, the model achieved mean test NSE (KGE) scores of 0.768 (0.861) for discharge and 0.626 (0.664) for NO₃–N load, substantially outperforming baselines. Attribution analysis further highlighted the importance of upstream inflow representation and graph-based spatial learning in capturing cross-subwatershed dependencies. The model also reproduced seasonal hydrological and biogeochemical patterns consistent with known processes, demonstrating its robustness and process fidelity for spatially distributed prediction. Altogether, HydroGraphNet advances the integration of physical knowledge and spatially explicit learning in hydrological modeling, offering a generalizable framework for distributed modeling to support spatially targeted water quality management in data-scarce watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗