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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Validation of a Cephalad Fluid Shift Countermeasure

INTRODUCTION: This project will provide critical data required to objectively determine how an optimized thigh cuff could be incorporated into the NASA integrated physiological countermeasure suite. This project will determine if thigh cuffs used during simulated spaceflight impact intracranial pressure (ICP), ocular structure and function, and intraocular pressure (IOP) using state of-the-art techniques. Additionally, some of the same methods, hardware, and protocols will be employed in the present investigation to enable direct comparisons to the International Space Station (ISS) "Fluid Shifts" experiment with Chibis-Lower Body Negative Pressure (LBNP). This study will determine the temporal physiological responses of thigh cuff application and removal on ocular and cerebral variables (including invasive ICP) in a microgravity analog. Furthermore, this proposed study will determine tissue pressure distribution applied by thigh cuffs in order to improve comfort, mobility, and efficacy of the countermeasure. Our specific aim is to determine the efficacy of a novel thigh cuff device to mitigate cephalad fluid shifts. We hypothesize that a thigh cuff countermeasure employed in a microgravity analog will temporarily reverse or attenuate ocular and cerebral-volume-pressure variables, approaching normal Earth-based seated posture, the most frequent posture assumed in daily life. In addition, we hypothesize that the magnitude of fluid and pressure redistribution using a thigh cuff countermeasure may require a longer exposure time than that of Chibis-LBNP (using ground-based data from our "Fluid Shifts" project). This project directly addresses Critical Path Roadmap Risks and Questions regarding "Risk of Spaceflight-Induced Intracranial Hypertension/Vision Alterations," and IRP Gap VIIP13: We need to identify preventative and treatment countermeasures to mitigate changes in ocular structure and function and intracranial pressure during spaceflight. METHODS: Noninvasive measures and tissue pressure distributions beneath thigh cuffs The objectives of this study are to: 1) determine the distribution of skin surface pressures beneath the advanced thigh cuff in ten subjects, 2) calibrate the built-in pressure measurement system of the advanced thigh cuff using an industry standard device, and 3) collect subjective feedback and data on the new cuff design to allow for further adjustments prior to invasive studies. A Tekscan Industrial Sensing (I-Scan) system will measure the pressure distribution of the advanced thigh cuff against the skin. In addition, we will measure blood pooling in the thigh and record the circumference of the thigh using Hokanson strain gauge plethysmography. The advanced thigh cuff will be adjusted to obtain a skin contact pressure of 30-50 mmHg as visualized on the Tekscan system. The built-in advanced thigh cuff pressure monitor will be recorded simultaneously to allow direct comparison to the Tekscan measurements. The volunteer will then remove the thigh cuff and remain at rest for five minutes with no legging applied. The thigh cuff will be donned again and pressure measurements will be taken in the same manner for up to 10 repetitions to show reproducibility of pressure after donning. At the conclusion of the study, subjects will be asked to flex their knee, stand, walk, and sit with the thigh cuff activated. During each of these maneuvers the subject will rate their pain/comfort using a modified Borg scale. Effect of thigh cuffs on ICP during simulated microgravity Ommaya reservoir patients will be recruited from the John Wayne Cancer Institute. Ommaya reservoirs provide safe and direct access for the measurement of ICP. Subjects will be instrumented for continuous blood pressure, ECG, and invasive ICP measures. The subjects will be positioned in the upright sitting posture for a 10-minute stabilization period. After the 10-minute stabilization period, imaging measures [ICP, Optical Coherence Tomography, IOP, ocular and vascular ultrasound] will be performed. Following baseline seated measures, the subject will be positioned randomly in the supine, 15deg head-down-tilt, and 15deg head-down-tilt with thigh cuffs and measures repeated. DISCUSSION: Tests to down-select thigh cuff designs will occur in early 2016. Invasive ICP and noninvasive eye imaging tests will begin in spring 2016. Supported by NSBRI through NCC 9-58.

Macias, B.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Institutional Framework of Variable Renewable Energy Forecasting in India

The share of variable renewable energy (VRE) in India is growing rapidly, with a national goal of reaching 50% capacity from non-fossil fuel generation by 2030. One implication of this growth is the need for improved VRE forecasting methods. For this reason, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) in India commissioned this study with support from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in the United States, and the National Institute of Wind Energy (NIWE) in India. The objective of this study was to review the existing institutional framework and suggest changes needed to support the plans for large-scale VRE integration in the country. To achieve that objective, the authors consulted local stakeholders about the status of VRE forecasting in India, reviewed existing studies, and examined VRE forecasting methods around the world to identify best practices. Based on those best practices, the study presents six potential approaches to improve the VRE forecasting framework in India. Approaches include incentivizing VRE forecast improvement and use of the most accurate VRE forecast, creating an institution that will optimize VRE forecasts while maintaining and ensuring access to necessary data for forecasting, implementing a review and certification process for VRE forecast providers, forecasting closer to dispatch time and allowing for more frequent forecast revisions, increasing the frequency of weather forecasts, and aggregating VRE forecasts at the point of interconnection.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2002

Lidar Measurements of Wind, Moisture, and Boundary Layer Evolution in a Dry Line during 1HOP 2002

Variability in the convective boundary layer moisture, wind and temperature fields and their importance in the forecasting and understanding of storms have been discussed in the literature. These . variations have been reported in relation to frontal zones, stationary boundaries and during horizontal convective rolls. While all three vary substantially in the convective boundary layer, moisture poses a particular challenge. Moisture or water vapor concentration (expressed as a mass mixing ratio, g/kg), is conserved in all meteorological processes except condensation and evaporation. The water vapor mixing ratio often remains distinct across an air-mass boundary even when the temperature difference is indistinct. These properties make it an ideal choice in visualizing and understanding many of the atmosphere's dynamic features. However, it also presents a unique measurement challenge because water vapor content can vary by more than three orders of magnitude in the troposphere. Characterization of the 3D-distribution of water vapor is also difficult as water vapor observations can suffer from large sampling errors and substantial variability both in the vertical and horizontal. This study presents ground-based measurements of wind, boundary layer structure and water vapor mixing ratio measurements observed by three co-located lidars. This presentation will focus on the evolution and variability of moisture and wind in the boundary layer during a dry line event that occurred on 22 May 2002. These data sets and analyses are unique in that they combine simultaneous measurements of wind, moisture and CBL structure to study the detailed thermal variability in and around clear air updrafts during a dryline event. It will quantify the variation caused by, in and around buoyant plumes and across a dryline. The data presented here were collected in the panhandle of Oklahoma as part of the International H2O Project (MOP-2002), a field experiment that took place over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) of the United States from 13 May to 30 June 2002. The chief goal of MOP-2002 is to improve characterization of the four-dimensional (4-D) distribution of water vapor and its application to improving the understanding and prediction of convection

Demoz, Belay↗
NASA NTRS2003

Lidar Measurements of Wind, Moisture and Boundary Layer Evolution in a Dryline During IHOP2002

Variability in the convective boundary layer moisture, wind and temperature fields and their importance in the forecasting and understanding of storms have been discussed in the literature. These variations have been reported in relation to frontal zones, stationary boundaries and during horizontal convective rolls. While all three vary substantially in the convective boundary layer, moisture poses a particular challenge. Moisture or water vapor concentration (expressed as a mass mixing ratio, g/kg), is conserved in all meteorological processes except condensation and evaporation. The water vapor mixing ratio often remains distinct across an air -mass boundary even when the temperature difference is indistinct. These properties make it an ideal choice in visualizing and understanding many of the atmosphere's dynamic features. However, it also presents a unique measurement challenge because water vapor content can vary by more than three orders of magnitude in the troposphere. Characterization of the 3D-distribution of water vapor is also difficult as water vapor observations can suffer from large sampling errors and substantial variability both in the vertical and horizontal. This study presents groundbased measurements of wind, boundary layer structure and water vapor mixing ratio measurements observed by three co-located lidars. This presentation will focus on the evolution and variability of moisture and wind in the boundary layer during a dry line event that occurred on 22 May 2002. These data sets and analyses are unique in that they combine simultaneous measurements of wind, moisture and CBL structure to study the detailed thermal variability in and around clear air updrafts during a dryline event. It will quantify the variation caused by, in and around buoyant plumes and across a dryline. The data presented here were collected in the panhandle of Oklahoma as part of the International BO Project (IHOP-2002), a field experiment that took place over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) of the United States from 13 May to 30 June 2002. The chief goal of IHOP-2002 is to improve characterization of the four-dimensional (4-D) distribution of water vapor and its application to improving the understanding and prediction of convection

Demoz, Belay↗
NASA NTRS1997

Detection of chaotic determinism in time series from randomly forced maps

Time series from biological system often display fluctuations in the measured variables. Much effort has been directed at determining whether this variability reflects deterministic chaos, or whether it is merely "noise". Despite this effort, it has been difficult to establish the presence of chaos in time series from biological sytems. The output from a biological system is probably the result of both its internal dynamics, and the input to the system from the surroundings. This implies that the system should be viewed as a mixed system with both stochastic and deterministic components. We present a method that appears to be useful in deciding whether determinism is present in a time series, and if this determinism has chaotic attributes, i.e., a positive characteristic exponent that leads to sensitivity to initial conditions. The method relies on fitting a nonlinear autoregressive model to the time series followed by an estimation of the characteristic exponents of the model over the observed probability distribution of states for the system. The method is tested by computer simulations, and applied to heart rate variability data.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS1976

Domestic and world trends affecting the future of aviation (1980 - 2000), appendix C

The results are presented of a study of variables affecting aviation in the United States during the last fifth of the twentieth century. A series of key trends relating to economic, social, political, technological, ecological, and environmental developments are identified and discussed with relation to their possible effects on aviation. From this analysis a series of scenarios is developed representing an array of possibilities ranging from severe economic depression and high international tension on the one hand to a world of detente which enjoys an unprecedented economic growth rate and relaxation of tensions on the other. A scenario is presented which represents the manner in which events will most probably develop and their effect on the aviation industry.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2000

Object Based Numerical Zooming Between the NPSS Version 1 and a 1-Dimensional Meanline High Pressure Compressor Design Analysis Code

Within NASA's High Performance Computing and Communication (HPCC) program, NASA Glenn Research Center is developing an environment for the analysis/design of propulsion systems for aircraft and space vehicles called the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS). The NPSS focuses on the integration of multiple disciplines such as aerodynamics, structures, and heat transfer, along with the concept of numerical zooming between 0- Dimensional to 1-, 2-, and 3-dimensional component engine codes. The vision for NPSS is to create a "numerical test cell" enabling full engine simulations overnight on cost-effective computing platforms. Current "state-of-the-art" engine simulations are 0-dimensional in that there is there is no axial, radial or circumferential resolution within a given component (e.g. a compressor or turbine has no internal station designations). In these 0-dimensional cycle simulations the individual component performance characteristics typically come from a table look-up (map) with adjustments for off-design effects such as variable geometry, Reynolds effects, and clearances. Zooming one or more of the engine components to a higher order, physics-based analysis means a higher order code is executed and the results from this analysis are used to adjust the 0-dimensional component performance characteristics within the system simulation. By drawing on the results from more predictive, physics based higher order analysis codes, "cycle" simulations are refined to closely model and predict the complex physical processes inherent to engines. As part of the overall development of the NPSS, NASA and industry began the process of defining and implementing an object class structure that enables Numerical Zooming between the NPSS Version I (0-dimension) and higher order 1-, 2- and 3-dimensional analysis codes. The NPSS Version I preserves the historical cycle engineering practices but also extends these classical practices into the area of numerical zooming for use within a companies' design system. What follows here is a description of successfully zooming I-dimensional (row-by-row) high pressure compressor results back to a NPSS engine 0-dimension simulation and a discussion of the results illustrated using an advanced data visualization tool. This type of high fidelity system-level analysis, made possible by the zooming capability of the NPSS, will greatly improve the fidelity of the engine system simulation and enable the engine system to be "pre-validated" prior to commitment to engine hardware.

Follen, G.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE III) on the International Space Station (ISS) Mission

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III on the International Space Station (SAGE III/ISS) mission will provide the science community with high-vertical resolution and nearly global observations of ozone, aerosols, water vapor, nitrogen dioxide, and other trace gas species in the stratosphere and upper-troposphere. SAGE III/ISS measurements will extend the long-term Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM) and SAGE data record begun in the 1970s. The multi-decadal SAGE ozone and aerosol data sets have undergone intense scrutiny and are considered the international standard for accuracy and stability. SAGE data have been used to monitor the effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol. Key objectives of the mission are to assess the state of the recovery in the distribution of ozone, to re-establish the aerosol measurements needed by both climate and ozone models, and to gain further insight into key processes contributing to ozone and aerosol variability. The space station mid-inclination orbit allows for a large range in latitude sampling and nearly continuous communications with payloads. The SAGE III instrument is the fifth in a series of instruments developed for monitoring atmospheric constituents with high vertical resolution. The SAGE III instrument is a moderate resolution spectrometer covering wavelengths from 290 nm to 1550 nm. Science data is collected in solar occultation mode, lunar occultation mode, and limb scatter measurement mode. A SpaceX Falcon 9 launch vehicle will provide access to space. Mounted in the unpressurized section of the Dragon trunk, SAGE III will be robotically removed from the Dragon and installed on the space station. SAGE III/ISS will be mounted to the ExPRESS Logistics Carrier-4 (ELC-4) location on the starboard side of the station. To facilitate a nadir view from this location, a Nadir Viewing Platform (NVP) payload was developed which mounts between the carrier and the SAGE III Instrument Payload (IP).

Cisewski, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Decade of Satellite Ocean Color Observations

After the successful Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS, 1978-1986), demonstration that quantitative estimations of geophysical variables such as chlorophyll a and diffuse attenuation coefficient could be derived from top of the atmosphere radiances, a number of international missions with ocean color capabilities were launched beginning in the late 1990s. Most notable were those with global data acquisition capabilities, i.e., the Ocean Color and Temperature Sensor (OCTS 1996-1997), the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS, United States, 1997-present), two Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers, (MODIS, United States, Terra/2000-present and Aqua/2002-present), the Global Imager (GLI, Japan, 2002-2003), and the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS, European Space Agency, 2002-present). These missions have provided data of exceptional quality and continuity, allowing for scientific inquiries into a wide variety of marine research topics not possible with the CZCS. This review focuses on the scientific advances made over the past decade using these data sets.

McClain, Charles R.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The Space Station Freedom - International cooperation and innovation in space safety

The Space Station Freedom (SSF) being developed by the United States, European Space Agency (ESA), Japan, and Canada poses novel safety challenges in design, operations, logistics, and program management. A brief overview discloses many features that make SSF a radical departure from earlier low earth orbit (LEO) space stations relative to safety management: size and power levels; multiphase manned assembly; 30-year planned lifetime, with embedded 'hooks and scars' forevolution; crew size and skill-mix variability; sustained logistical dependence; use of man, robotics and telepresence for on-orbit maintenance of station and free-flyer systems; closed-environment recycling; use of automation and expert systems; long-term operation of collocated life-sciences and materials-science experiments, requiring control and segregation of hazardous and chemically incompatible materials; and materials aging in space.

Rodney, George A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Focused‐beam X‐ray fluorescence and diffraction microtomographies for mineralogical and chemical characterization of unsectioned extraterrestrial samples

Abstract This study describes the application of new synchrotron X‐ray fluorescence (XRF) and diffraction (XRD) microtomographies for the 3‐D visualization of chemical and mineralogical variations in unsectioned extraterrestrial samples. These improved methods have been applied to three compositionally diverse chondritic meteorite samples that were between 300 and 400 μm in diameter, including samples prepared from fragments of the CR2 chondrite LaPaz Icefield (LAP) 02342, H5 chondrite MacAlpine Hills (MAC) 88203, and the CM2 chondrite Murchison. The synchrotron‐based XRF and XRD tomographies used are focused‐beam techniques that measure the intensities of fluorescent and diffracted X‐rays in a sample simultaneously during irradiation by a high‐energy microfocused incident X‐ray beam. Measured sinograms of the emitted and diffracted intensities were then tomographically reconstructed to generate 2‐D slices of XRF and XRD intensity through the sample, with reconstructed pixel resolution of 1–2 μm, defined by the resolution of the focused incident X‐ray beam. For sample LAP 02342, primary mineral phases that were visualized in reconstructed slices using these techniques included isolated grains of α‐Fe, orthopyroxene, and olivine. For our sample of MAC 88203, XRF/XRD tomography allowed visualization of forsteritic olivine as a primary mineral phase, a vitrified fusion crust at the sample surface, identification of localized Cr‐rich spinels at spatial resolutions of several micrometers, and imaging of a plagioclase‐rich glassy matrix. In the sample of Murchison, major identifiable phases include clinoenstatite‐ and olivine‐rich chondrules, variable serpentine matrix minerals and small Cr‐rich spinels. Most notable in the tomographic analysis of Murchison is the ability to quantitatively distinguish and visualize the complex mixture of serpentine‐group minerals and associated tochilinite–cronstedtite intergrowths. These methods provide new opportunities for spatially resolved characterization of sample texture, mineralogy, crystal structure, and chemical state in unsectioned samples. This provides researchers an ability to characterize such samples internally with minimal disruption of sample micro‐structures and chemistry, possibly without the need for sample extraction from some types of sampling and capture media.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations

Anthropogenically forced climate change signals are emerging from the noise of internal variability in observations, and the impacts on society are growing. For decades, Climate or Earth System Models have been predicting how these climate change signals will unfold. While challenges remain, given the growing forced trends and the lengthening observational record, the climate science community is now in a position to confront the signals, as represented by historical trends, in models with observations. This review covers the state of the science on the ability of models to represent historical trends in the climate system. It also outlines robust procedures that should be used when comparing modeled and observed trends and how to move beyond quantification into understanding. Finally, this review discusses cutting-edge methods for identifying sources of discrepancies and the importance of future confrontations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Changing Trends in Drought Patterns over the Northeastern United States Using Multiple Large Ensemble Datasets

Since the infamous extreme drought of the 1960s, the climate of the northeastern United States (NEUS) has generally trended toward warmer and wetter conditions. Nonetheless, there is mounting evidence that short-term droughts will continue to pose a significant risk for this region. To better explore the processes governing events such as these, climate models have adopted more complex representations of the fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice system; however, large uncertainties in future projections still persist, with internal variability necessitating large ensembles to understand trends in both rare and high-impact extreme events such as rapidly developing droughts (a term here that includes flash droughts developing on monthly scales). In this study, seven large ensemble (LE) models are employed to answer the outstanding question: How are the frequency and character of drought in the NEUS changing under a warming climate? We find that most LE models indicate the NEUS will experience a long-term wetting trend with more “extremely wet” months, but also more frequent short-term extreme droughts. These changes are associated with increasing precipitation, atmospheric water demand, and climate variability. We also conclude that discrepant trends in precipitation and evapotranspiration variability will lead to increasing anticorrelation of these variables, which is relevant to the intensification of rapidly developing drought, particularly in the spring season. These changes are associated with an increase in evapotranspiration from plants, brought by an earlier emergence of the growing season and denser vegetation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Linear and nonlinear pattern selection in Rayleigh-Benard stability problems

A new algorithm is introduced to compute finite-amplitude states using primitive variables for Rayleigh-Benard convection on relatively coarse meshes. The algorithm is based on a finite-difference matrix-splitting approach that separates all physical and dimensional effects into one-dimensional subsets. The nonlinear pattern selection process for steady convection in an air-filled square cavity with insulated side walls is investigated for Rayleigh numbers up to 20,000. The internalization of disturbances that evolve into coherent patterns is investigated and transient solutions from linear perturbation theory are compared with and contrasted to the full numerical simulations.

Davis, Sanford S.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Development of a Long-Term, Continually Updated Global Solar Resource at 10 km Resolution: Preliminary Results From Test Processing and Continuing Plans

Background: Considering the likelihood of global climatic weather pattern changes and the global competition for energy resources, there is an increasing need to provide improved and continuously updated global Earth surface solar resource information. Toward this end, a project was funded under the NASA Applied Science program involving the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the State University of New York/Albany (SUNY) and the NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) to provide NREL with a global long-term advanced global solar mapping production system for improved depiction of historical solar resources and variability and to provide a mechanism for continual updates of solar resource information. This new production system is made possible by the efforts of NOAA and NASA to completely reprocess the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data set that provides satellite visible and infrared radiances together with retrieved cloud and surface properties on a 3-hourly basis beginning from July 1983. The old version of the ISCCP data provided this information for all the world TMs available geosynchronous satellite systems and NOAA TMs AVHRR data sets at a 30 km effective resolution. This new version aims to provide a new and improved satellite calibration at an effective 10 km resolution. Thus, working with SUNY, NASA will develop and test an improved production system that will enable NREL to continually update the Earth TM solar resource. Objective and Methods: In this presentation, we provide a general overview of this project together with samples of the new solar irradiance mapped data products and comparisons to surface measurements at various locations across the world. An assessment of the solar resource values relative to calibration uncertainty and assumptions are presented. Errors resulting assumptions in snow cover and background aerosol amount are described. These uncertainties and the statistics of the agreement between the measurements and new satellite estimates are also reviewed and compared to other solar data sets. Findings and Conclusions: Preliminary results show that insolation values show an overall small bias (less than 1%) with a RMS of 25% relative to surface measurements. Exceptions at certain locations were found and will be discussed relative to the uncertainties identified above. Lastly, we will identify the next steps in the development and improvement of this production system including some accuracy goals in preparation for ultimate delivery to NREL.

Stackhouse, P.↗
NASA NTRS1997

A General Reversible Hereditary Constitutive Model: Theoretical Developments - Part 1

Using an internal-variable formalism as a starting point, we describe the viscoelastic extension of a previously-developed viscoplasticity formulation of the complete potential structure type. It is mainly motivated by experimental evidence for the presence of rate/time effects in the so-called quasilinear, reversible, material response range. Several possible generalizations are described, in the general format of hereditary-integral representations for non-equilibrium, stress-type, state variables, both for isotropic as well as anisotropic materials. In particular, thorough discussions are given on the important issues of thermodynamic admissibility requirements for such general descriptions, resulting in a set of explicit mathematical constraints on the associated kernel (relaxation and creep compliance) functions. In addition, a number of explicit, integrated forms are derived, under stress and strain control to facilitate the parametric and qualitative response characteristic studies reported here, as well as to help identify critical factors in the actual experimental characterizations from test data that will be reported in Part II.

Saleeb, A. F.↗
DOE OSTI2025

time-resolved spectroscopy fit (trspecfit) v0.01

Analyze 2D time- and energy-resolved data, such as from a pump-probe spectroscopy experiment. User can select and input different peak shapes/ functions and background types to first fit a ground state/ unperturbed spectrum. This would be similar to how standard spectroscopy data is fit. Subsequently, to describe the time domain, users can choose functions that describe the temporal dynamics of one or more spectral features, such as a peak amplitude, peak position, etc. These time dynamics functions can be added or convoluted (e.g. describing an instrument response function) with each other. Functionality to integrate implicit variables leading to distributions of certain parameters/ functions is in development. Alternatively, 2D data can be analyzed one time step at a time to get an idea of the time dynamics of the system before deploying the global 2D fit described above. Typically people write custom software for this purpose. During my PhD I've seen five internal LBL and external researchers write one-off code in different languages to analyze time- and energy-resolved spectra. While this was specifically was for a laser pump - X-ray probe spectroscopy experiment, I'm trying to write a general package for the time-resolved spectroscopy community.

Mahl, Johannes [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗
NASA NTRS2017

Sensitivity Analysis of the Bone Fracture Risk Model

Introduction: The probability of bone fracture during and after spaceflight is quantified to aid in mission planning, to determine required astronaut fitness standards and training requirements and to inform countermeasure research and design. Probability is quantified with a probabilistic modeling approach where distributions of model parameter values, instead of single deterministic values, capture the parameter variability within the astronaut population and fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. Because of this uncertainty, the model in its current state cannot discern an effect of countermeasures on fracture probability, for example between use and non-use of bisphosphonates or between spaceflight exercise performed with the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) or on devices prior to installation of ARED on the International Space Station. This is thought to be due to the inability to measure key contributors to bone strength, for example, geometry and volumetric distributions of bone mass, with areal bone mineral density (BMD) measurement techniques. To further the applicability of model, we performed a parameter sensitivity study aimed at identifying those parameter uncertainties that most effect the model forecasts in order to determine what areas of the model needed enhancements for reducing uncertainty. Methods: The bone fracture risk model (BFxRM), originally published in (Nelson et al) is a probabilistic model that can assess the risk of astronaut bone fracture. This is accomplished by utilizing biomechanical models to assess the applied loads; utilizing models of spaceflight BMD loss in at-risk skeletal locations; quantifying bone strength through a relationship between areal BMD and bone failure load; and relating fracture risk index (FRI), the ratio of applied load to bone strength, to fracture probability. There are many factors associated with these calculations including environmental factors, factors associated with the fall event, mass and anthropometric values of the astronaut, BMD characteristics, characteristics of the relationship between BMD and bone strength and bone fracture characteristics. The uncertainty in these factors is captured through the use of parameter distributions and the fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. To determine parameter sensitivity, a correlation coefficient is found between the sample set of each model parameter and the calculated fracture probabilities. Each parameters contribution to the variance is found by squaring the correlation coefficients, dividing by the sum of the squared correlation coefficients, and multiplying by 100. Results: Sensitivity analyses of BFxRM simulations of preflight, 0 days post-flight and 365 days post-flight falls onto the hip revealed a subset of the twelve factors within the model which cause the most variation in the fracture predictions. These factors include the spring constant used in the hip biomechanical model, the midpoint FRI parameter within the equation used to convert FRI to fracture probability and preflight BMD values. Future work: Plans are underway to update the BFxRM by incorporating bone strength information from finite element models (FEM) into the bone strength portion of the BFxRM. Also, FEM bone strength information along with fracture outcome data will be incorporated into the FRI to fracture probability.

mathematical models↗