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DOE OSTI2024

Best Practices Handbook for the Collection and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applications: Fourth Edition

As the world increasingly seeks low-carbon energy solutions, solar power emerges as the most abundant resource on our planet. However, the challenge of effectively harnessing this energy is crucial in the coming years. Solar energy applications such as photovoltaics, solar heating and cooling, and concentrating solar power use different technologies to capitalize on sunlight. Each system has unique capabilities and requirements, underscoring the need for reliable information about solar resources across diverse installations, from residential rooftops to large-scale power plants. This is especially important for substantial projects, often exceeding $1 billion in construction costs. Before embarking on such ventures, it is imperative to obtain accurate data concerning solar resource quality and reliability at specific sites. Developers require detailed historical information, including seasonal, daily, hourly, and, ideally, subhourly variability to effectively predict a power plant's annual performance. Without these vital data, financial analyses fall short. Moreover, with the growing adoption of distributed photovoltaics, integrating these generation sources becomes critical to maintaining grid reliability and stability. By accurately forecasting generation patterns, utilities and system operators can facilitate greater integration of solar energy, thus ensuring the operational stability of the grid. The complexity and importance of these issues have prompted the foremost experts in the field to collaborate under the auspices of the International Energy Agency's (IEA's) Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (PVPS) Task 16 to publish this handbook, which summarizes state-of-the-art information about all these topics. The efforts focus on providing reliable data and insights that can help shape our investments in solar energy and drive a sustainable future.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Wind Turbine Sound Setbacks and Supply Curves: Ordinances and Extrapolated Trends, 110 Hub Height, 130 Rotor Diameter

This dataset provides a comprehensive set of wind turbine sound setbacks from every residential structure in the contiguous United States (CONUS). A sound setback is defined as the minimum required distance between a residential structure and a hypothetical turbine installation site to ensure that modeled sound levels received at the residence do not exceed local sound ordinances, which are commonly expressed in A-weighted decibels (dBA). Therefore, sound setbacks are a local spatial assessment combining multiple factors, including the sound pressure curve as a function of the observer location (distance and direction) relative to the turbine, local sound regulations, and the geographical distribution of residential structures. The dataset is organized into multiple scenario-based products, detailed as follows: 1. Existing and extrapolated sound setbacks. An existing scenario characterizes sound setbacks only in states or counties that have implemented sound regulations as of 2022. The extrapolated scenarios extend a constant sound threshold to counties that lack explicit sound regulations, with thresholds ranging from 35 to 60 dBA, in 5-dBA increments reflecting the variation observed in current sound ordinances. 2. Sound setbacks in directional and worst scenarios. The directional scenario accounts for the distance and orientation of residential structures relative to a hypothetical turbine location, utilizing the turbine's sound emissions in that specific direction. In contrast, the worst scenario takes loudest sound level at each distance step from the turbine, irrespective of directional considerations, which aligns with current industry practice. 3. Supply curves for Open and Reference Access scenarios. This dataset includes supply curves generated by the reV model, which integrates each of the above sound setbacks into both Open and Reference siting scenarios. In addition, two Open and Reference baselines scenarios were included which do not consider sound setbacks for comparative analysis. All sound setback data are stored in TIF files, with partial maps of the data provided in PNG format. The values in the sound setback raster range from 0 to 1, representing the fraction of developable land within a 90 meter by 90 meter pixel due to sound ordinances. A value of 0 indicates areas where wind energy development is prohibited, while a value of 1 signifies areas fully permissible. The wind turbine parameters used in the sound modeling are based on the land-based turbine from International Energy Agency (IEA), featuring a rated electrical power of 3.4 MW, a rotor diameter of 130 meters, and a hub height of 110 meters. The atmospheric conditions, including wind speed/direction, turbulence, air temperature, relative humidity, and air pressure, that drive the sound generation are obtained from the WIND Toolkit dataset.

Array↗

DOE OSTI2024

Correction to “Frank–Kasper Phases of Diblock Copolymer Melts Studied with the DPD Model: SCF Results”

In a recent study, (1) we performed the self-consistent field (SCF) calculations of a dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) model of conformationally asymmetric diblock copolymer A-B melts to study the stability of various Frank–Kasper (FK) phases formed by such A-B melts. While all the equations in ref (1) are correct, we did not calculate the dimensionless (mean-field) Helmholtz free energies per chain βf c = βu c,χ + βu c,κ – s c /k B and the dimensionless stresses dβf c /dθ of ordered phases accurately. For example, the dimensionless (nonbonded) internal energy per chain due to the system compressibility βu c,κ = (N/2κ)∑ q βû 0 (|q|)(ϕ̂ A (q) + ϕ̂ B (q) – δ q,0 )(ϕ̂ A (−q) + ϕ̂ B (−q) – δ– q,0 ) should be calculated in the reciprocal space as given (note that βû 0 (|q|) is obtained analytically, and that since ϕ A (r) is real 𝜙̂ A (−𝐪)= $\overline{𝜙̂ A}$(𝐪), i.e., the complex conjugate of ϕ̂ A (q)); this corresponds to numerically evaluating βu c,κ = (N/2κ)∫dr(ϕ A (r) + ϕ B (r) – 1)ψ(r) with ψ(r) ≡ (∫dr′βu 0 (|r–r′|)(ϕ A (r′) + ϕ B (r′) – 1)/V in the real space via the (composite) trapezoidal rule. While the trapezoidal rule is less accurate than the Romberg integration (2) in general, the opposite occurs when the integration domain is periodic; this was pointed out by Matsen in ref (3) and explained in detail in refs (4and5). With our ignorance of this exceptional convergence property of the trapezoidal rule for periodic functions, we calculated all convolutions having the form of ψ(r) in the reciprocal space via the fast Fourier transforms (6) but those having the form of βu c,κ in the real space via Romberg integration; the latter leads to inaccurate results and unfortunately incorrect phase diagrams reported in ref (1), which are corrected here.

He, Juntong↗

DOE OSTI2020

Mode-specific pressure effects on the relaxation of an excited nitromethane molecule in an argon bath

The vibrational and rotational mode-specific relaxations of CH 3 NO 2 with 50 kcal/mol of initial internal energy in an argon bath is computed at 300 K at pressures of 10-400 atm. This work uses archived information from our previously published [J. Chem. Phys. 142, 014303 (2015)] molecular dynamics simulations and employs our previous published [J. Chem. Phys. 151, 034303 (2019)] method for projecting time-dependent Cartesian velocities onto normal mode eigenvectors. The computed relaxations cover three types of energies: vibrational, rotational, and Coriolis. In general, rotational and Coriolis relaxations in all modes are initially fast followed by an orders of magnitude slower relaxation. For all modes, that slower relaxation rate is approximately comparable to the vibrational relaxation rate. For all three types of energies, there are small-scale mode-to-mode variations. Of particular prominence is the exceptionally fast relaxation shared in common by the external rotation about the C-N axis, the internal hindered rotation of the CH 3 group relative to the NO 2 group, and the symmetric stretch of the CH 3 group.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Improved treatment of multi-material cells in thermal radiation transport codes

High-energy-density physics simulations with non-conformal meshes of materials require a multi-material (MM) closure that affects the thermal radiation transport (TRT). We propose a set of novel closures that work for an arbitrary number of materials, both grey and multigroup energy discretizations, and any angular discretization (such as Sn, IMC, or diffusion). For each spatial cell, our closures let each species (ion and electron) of each material have its own temperature, density, and internal energy, but use a single radiation distribution that interacts with all materials within the cell. Our closures maintain energy conservation, do not incur increased computational cost in the TRT solve itself, are compatible with single-material TRT solvers, and do not make any temperature-equilibrium assumptions. Here we test our closures on a wide range of increasingly realistic problems and find them to be robust.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Kinetic-Energy–Momentum–Mass 5-Flux of a Baryon Fluid in Bargmann Spacetimes

A Bargmann spacetime is a constrained five-dimensional setting that, while introducing no new physical degrees of freedom beyond those of ordinary four-dimensional spacetime, permits Galilei physics to be expressed with a tensor formalism that respects the distinction between mass and energy while affording the conceptual and technical advantages of a spacetime metric. This framework offers a route to a strong-field ‘Galilei general relativity’ approximating the usual Poincaré general relativity introduced by Einstein. In preparation for modeling core-collapse supernovae, where such an approximation would be useful, this work generalizes the kinetic-energy–momentum–mass 5-flux 𝒯 and its associated spacetime tensor law from a simple fluid of constant particle mass to a baryon fluid whose multiple nuclear species can interconvert rest mass and internal energy. The spacetime tensor law on Bargmann–Galilei spacetime 𝐵𝒢 and its decompositions relative to comoving (‘Lagrangian’) and fiducial (‘Eulerian’) observers are derived in detail. The formalism is rendered more suitable for core-collapse supernova modeling by an extension from strict 𝐵𝒢 to a regime that might be denoted as 𝐵𝒢+: microscopically Poincaré yet macroscopically Galilei. This extension accommodates energy generation by nuclear composition changes and allows comoving energy density and pressure to contribute relative to mass density, while preserving the simplifications of Galilei bulk fluid flow and the streamlined geometry governed by the Bargmann–Galilei spacetime metric.

Cardall, Christian [ORNL] (ORCID:000000020086105X)↗

NASA NTRS1974

Energy: A Continuing Bibliography with Indexes, May 1974

A bibliography on energy is reported, the bibliography, Energy: A Continuing Bibliography With Indexes, contains 232 reports, journal articles, and other documents originally announced in STAR, and IAA between Jan. 1, and Mar. 31, 1974. The coverage includes regional, national and international energy systems; research and development of fuels and other sources of energy, and energy conversion, transport, transmission, distribution and storage, with special emphasis on use of hydrogen and of solar energy. Also included are methods of locating or using new energy resources. Of special interest is energy for heating, lighting, for powering aircraft, surface vehicles, or other machinery.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2023

Experimental investigation of advanced turbine control strategies and load-mitigation measures with a model-scale floating offshore wind turbine system

To advance the control co-design of offshore wind energy systems, the authors perform basin-scale experiments with a fully instrumented and actuated floating offshore wind turbine model. The model consists of a 1:70 scale performance-matched model of the International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Programme 15-MW reference turbine atop the VolturnUS-S semisubmersible platform. The Reference OpenSource Controller provides real-time blade pitch and generator torque control. Here we aim to develop an open data set for the validation of numerical models in predicting the influence of turbine control and load-mitigation measures. For this purpose, we measure the effects of advanced turbine control features, including peak shaving and floating feedback as well as hull-based control using tuned mass dampers on the system. Overall, the results demonstrate measurable and consistent influences from the control and load-mitigation measures, thus confirming the usefulness as a validation data set. Peak shaving attenuates the response to wind turbulence at near-rated wind speed. Floating feedback reduces the load and platform pitch motion associated with the negative damping induced by blade pitch control. The tuned mass dampers also attenuate the system response near the targeted frequencies under suitable conditions. We also identify detrimental side effects of each load-mitigation measure.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Heating and Cooling Energy Modeling of 3D-Printed Concrete Construction of Residential Buildings [Slides]

3D printed concrete construction (C3DP) is an emerging technology that comes with the associated benefits of high thermal mass walls. We investigated using BEopt software the heating and cooling energy use of a single story C3DP-constructed house. We then compared the heating/cooling energy use of the C3DP house against the corresponding energy use in a traditional timber (wood) frame construction (WFC), as well as a concrete masonry unit (CMU) construction. Both peak energy use for heating and cooling (Btu), as well as base energy use for both heating and cooling (MMBtu/yr) of the C3DP design were compared against the WFC and CMU baseline construction of identical geometries and orientations across all eight climate zones defined in the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC). The BEopt models for all three constructions (C3DP, WFC, and CMU) were built to comply with the 2018 IECC code. Results indicate that C3DP construction has significant heating and cooling energy benefits in certain climate zones, with the highest peak cooling energy savings (9% compared to WFC, and 5% compared to CMU) in the IECC Climate Zone 1 in the month of July. The peak heating and cooling energy demand reduction of C3DP were found to be more significant than the base heating and cooling energy demand in all IECC climate zones. The 2018 IECC compliance-related U-Factor adjustments of all models also resulted in more peak energy savings of the C3DP design in the cooling-dominated climate zones (climate zones 1 and 2), moderate energy savings in moderate climate zones (climate zones 3, 4, and 6), and little to no change in energy savings in very cold climates (climate zones 7 and 8).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Atomistic modeling of energy band alignment in CdSeTe surfaces

Atomistic modeling based on Desnity Functional Theory (DFT)- 1/2 method coupled with surface Green’s function has been employed to investigate the energy band alignment results in cadmium selenium telluride (CdSeTe) surfaces. The structural and electronic properties of the bulk ternary alloy were established before cleaving the CdSeTe low index surface facets. The dependency of atomic-scale electronic features on different plane orientations was explored by studying the energy band alignment diagrams in the unreconstructed and reconstructed surfaces. While the low index CdSeTe surface geometry reconstructions replicate the CdTe surface geometries, the energy band alignment features of the unreconstructed and reconstructed CdSeTe surfaces differ from those observed in CdTe low index surfaces. The structurally relaxed reconstructed CdSeTe surface results in purely flat bands as opposed to an internal cusp feature observed in CdTe surfaces. The presence of an internal energy cusp in CdTe(111) surfaces is expected to play a key role in enhancing the hole charge transport towards the back of CdTe-only solar cell device and the absence of such feature in CdSeTe surface may explain one of the reason for the lower performance of CdSeTe-only solar cell seen experimentally.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1984

Temperature Structures and Infrared-Derived Properties of the Atmosphere of Uranus and Neptune

Temperature structures of Uranus and Neptune are currently derivable from a combination of stellar occultation and thermal radiance observations. The globally averaged temperatures of Uranus and Neptune appear quite similar in their convective regions, reaching temperatures near 75 K at 1 bar and 150 K near 10 bar. Temperature minima near 200 mbar are also similar, near 53 to 55 K. The temperature in the stratosphere of Neptune rises much more steeply with altitude than for Uranus in the range of 0.1 to 100 mbar. Above this level, near 1 ubar, both atmospheres reach temperatures of 120 to 160 K. The bolometric radiant energy output is equivalent to the output of a blackbody at 58.3 + or - 2.0 K for Uranus and 60.3 + or - 2.0 for Neptune. These values imply approximate equilibrium with absorbed sunlight for Uranus but an internal energy source 1.9 to 2.6 times the absorbed sunlight for Neptune. The implication of the thermal spectra is that while the bulk composition may be consistent with a solar mixture of H2 and He, the mixing ratio of CH4 is probably about 2% in the deep atmospheres of both planets.

Glenn S Orton↗

NASA NTRS1987

The calculation of high-temperature equilibrium and nonequilibrium specific heat data for N2, O2 and NO

Specific heat data for high-temperature air species are needed to compute the temperature and enthalpy of gas mixtures in aerothermodynamics flowfield calculations. Accurate data are known only for temperatures under 6000 K, but are required for temperatures exceeding 25,000 K. In the present study, CP data are computed for N2, O2 and NO. The calculations are based on summations over all the vibration-rotation energy levels for all known bound electronic states. Estimates are made for the error introduced by the neglect of possible additional high-lying electronic states. In addition, a scheme for the partitioning of the internal energy into vibrational, rotational and electronic contributions is presented which consistently accounts for the nonseparable nature of the various energy modes. The multitemperature specific heat data are recommended for use in nonequilibrium flowfield models.

Jaffe, Richard L.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Photodissociation Dynamics of the Cyclohexyl Radical from the 3p Rydberg State at 248 nm

The photodissociation of jet-cooled cyclohexyl was studied by exciting the radicals to their 3p Rydberg state by using 248 nm laser light and detecting photoproducts by photofragment translational spectroscopy. Both H atom loss and dissociation to heavy fragment pairs are observed. The H atom loss channel exhibits a two-component translational energy distribution. The fast photoproduct component is attributed to impulsive cleavage directly from an excited state, likely the Rydberg 3s state, forming cyclohexene. The slow component is due to statistical decomposition of hot cyclohexyl radicals that internally convert to the ground electronic state prior to H atom loss. The fast and slow components are present in an ~0.7:1 ratio, similar to findings in other alkyl radicals. Internal conversion to the ground state also leads to ring-opening followed by dissociation to 1-buten-4-yl + ethene in comparable yield to H-loss, with the C 4 H 7 fragment containing enough internal energy to dissociate further to butadiene via H atom loss. A very minor ground-state C 5 H 8 + CH 3 channel is observed, attributed predominantly to 1,3-pentadiene formation. Lastly, the ground-state branching ratios agree well with RRKM calculations, which also predict C 4 H 6 + C 2 H 5 and C 3 H 6 + C 3 H 5 channels with similar yield to C 5 H 8 + CH 3 . If these channels were active, it was at levels too low to be observed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Relative permeability as a stationary process: Energy fluctuations in immiscible displacement

Relative permeability is commonly used to model immiscible fluid flow through porous materials. In this work, we derive the relative permeability relationship from conservation of energy, assuming that the system to be non-ergodic at large length scales and relying on averaging in both space and time to homogenize the behavior. Explicit criteria are obtained to define stationary conditions: (1) there can be no net change for extensive measures of the system state over the time averaging interval; (2) the net energy inputs into the system are zero, meaning that the net rate of work done on the system must balance with the heat removed; and (3) there is no net work performed due to the contribution of internal energy fluctuations. Results are then evaluated based on direct numerical simulation. Dynamic connectivity is observed during steady-state flow, which is quantitatively assessed based the Euler characteristic. We show that even during steady-state flow at low capillary number ([Formula: see text]), typical flow processes will explore multiple connectivity states. The residence time for each connectivity state is captured based on the time-and-space average. The distribution for energy fluctuations is shown to be multi-modal and non-Gaussian when terms are considered independently. However, we demonstrate that their sum is zero. Given an appropriate choice of the thermodynamic driving force, we show that the conventional relative permeability relationship is sufficient to model the energy dissipation in systems with complex pore-scale dynamics that routinely alter the structure of fluid connected pathways.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Proceedings of the 2021 Airborne Wind Energy Workshop

On March 2-3, 2021, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducted a virtual workshop to evaluate the status, potential development, and technical viability of AWE systems as a source of energy in the United States. Stakeholder input provided at the workshop will contribute to the report to Congress. This report summarizes key workshop findings, current technology research and development activities in the United States, and opportunities and potential modes of collaboration and coordination for future technology research and development activities. The workshop focused on U.S. stakeholders in AWE, with approximately 100 experts and industry stakeholders from AWE technology developers, operators, engineering firms, consultants, government, national laboratories, and university researchers. The workshop began with an explanation from DOE's Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO) Technology Manager, Ben Hallissy, of the context and purpose of the workshop, including a request from Congress that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) deliver a "report on the potential for, and technical viability of, airborne wind energy systems to provide a significant source of energy in the United States, including a summary of research, development, demonstration, and commercialization needs, including an estimate of Federal funding requirements, to further examine and validate the technical and economic viability of airborne wind energy concepts over the 10-year period." The workshop began with brief introductions from attendees who explained their interest in AWE. Nicolas El Hayek of Planair summarized the proceedings from the AWE workshop held in September 2020 by the International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Task 11. This was followed by a presentation by Roland Schmehl of TU-Delft summarizing European AWE R&D efforts. Chris Vermillion of North Carolina State University and Jason Jonkman of NREL presented an overview of U.S. R&D efforts. Then five panelists discussed AWE markets, sizes of AWE systems, challenges, and opportunities. Panelists included: Cristina Archer, professor at the College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment and associate director at the Center for Research in Wind (CReW) at the University of Delaware; Stephan Brabeck, chief technology officer at SkySails; Thierry Delahave, innovation and technology development lead at Saipem; Rob Creighton, founder and chief executive officer at WindLift; and David Schaefer, founder and chief executive officer at eWind Solutions. The second day of the workshop began with a brief overview of five key topics that are crucial to enabling AWE in the United States. These topics range from estimates of the U.S. wind resource, technical generation potential, economic analysis, environmental challenges, status of current technology and R&D activities, and needed activities to enable commercialization of AWE. This set the stage for a robust discussion in breakout groups where individuals could offer their opinions on the potential opportunities for AWE in the United States. The following topics were discussed in the breakout groups: resource potential and energy output, technical potential, social and environmental impacts, and permitting, techno-economic analysis and markets, technology assessment and upscaling and demonstration and commercialization needs. The second day concluded with reports by the NREL research team, communicating the key themes and outcomes from each of the breakout group discussions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

IEA Wind Task 32 and Task 37: Optimizing Wind Turbines with Lidar-Assisted Control Using Systems Engineering

Lidar-assisted control is a promising technology for reducing the levelized cost of energy from wind turbines, but quantifying its impact at the overall system level requires sophisticated systems engineering analysis and optimization frameworks. The joint workshop on Optimizing Wind Turbines with Lidar-Assisted Control Using Systems Engineering was held by the International Energy Agency Wind Task 32 (Lidar) and Task 37 (Systems Engineering) in October 2019 to address this challenge. This paper summarizes the outcome of the workshop and presents a road map for further research. The most promising applications of lidar-assisted control identified at the workshop and discussed here include 1) increasing annual energy production, 2) decreasing capital expenditure costs by reducing design loads, 3) extending turbine lifetime by reducing operating loads, and 4) enabling wind turbine class upgrades. For each application, we review the state of the art and highlight remaining research needs. Finally, we discuss strategies for addressing these research needs by conducting high-fidelity systems engineering optimizations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1994

Collisional-Radiative Nonequilibrium and Precursor Effects in a Nitrogen Shock Wave

Improvements to a plasma code with a Collisional-Radiative (CR) non-equilibrium model are made, allowing for a more accurate description of the physical processes. The code allows for non-Boltzmann distributions of the electronic excited states by convecting separately each excited state, as a pseudo-specie. Each molecular state has also its own vibrational temperature, while a global rotational temperature is assumed. The free electron temperature is different from those of the excited states, and the electron heat conduction is also included. The CR model also uses a unique coupling between chemistry and vibrational energy (C-V coupling), which is fully coherent, and has the property of establishing thermal equilibrium as well as chemical equilibrium, on its own. We have also included a coupling between electronic excitations and vibrational energy (X-V coupling), which can have a strong influence on the vibrational temperature of some states. The recent improvements include the multi- temperature dependence of the chemical rates for associative ionization, as well as the estimation of the internal energies transferred during this process. Additionally, the distribution of energy into different translational modes (electron and heavy particles) is now correctly modeled. This provides a very rapid heating mechanism for the free electrons, since it is found that the electrons are generated with an average thermal energy of the same order as the heavy particle translational energy. This effect was observed by Gorelov et al in a recent paper, and lead to pronounced peaks in electron temperature immediately behind the shock. We will attempt ro reproduce this phenomenon. The last modification concerns the inclusion of the radiative terms into the calculations, thus enabling us to observe the effect of radiative losses and radiation transport. Preliminary tests have shown that the radiative losses are not negligible, i.e. the shock velocity drops when the radiative emission is included. In addition, we have observed some precursor excitation and ionization phenomena. These may be important at high shock velocities, and this will be investigated in detail. Precursor phenomena were also observed (in air) by Gorelov et al, and our results (for pure nitrogen) will be qualitatively compared with theirs.

Cambier, Jean-Luc↗

DOE OSTI2025

Driving the grid forward: How electric vehicle adoption shapes power system infrastructure and emissions

We model the effect of plug-in electric vehicle (EV) adoption on U.S. power system generator capacity investment, operations, and emissions through 2050 by estimating power systems outcomes under a range of EV adoption trajectory scenarios. Our EV adoption scenarios are informed by 1) an Energy Information Administration scenario with no policy intervention, 2) EV growth expected under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), 3) a Biden Administration 50% EV sales target by 2030, 4) the Environmental Protection Agency’s projections under vehicle emissions standards, and 5) the International Energy Agency’s roadmap to Net Zero by 2050. We find across these scenarios that increasing EV adoption induces investment in new wind, solar, storage, and natural gas capacity, affecting power generation mix and emissions. The net effect of increasing EV adoption beyond our IRA base case is to increase power sector emissions by about 5 mtCO 2 eq per EV-year in 2026 (comparable to displaced gasoline vehicle combustion emissions), but this effect rapidly drops to annual levels below 1 mtCO 2 eq per EV-year by 2032 and continues below this level through 2050. Consequential effects of EV adoption vary regionally, with most regions primarily increasing wind or solar capacity and some regions primarily increasing natural gas capacity, even in 2050. Our national emissions estimates per EV-year are relatively robust to the level of EV adoption beyond our baseline and to variation in assumptions about power systems, EV behavior, and policy.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗