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At least 235 records · Page 13

Tool-Based Case Studies on Strategic Deployment of Untapped Micro-Pumped Hydro Storage in Michigan

With most classical hydropower sites already utilized and the global push for rapid integration of renewable energy sources accelerating, there is a critical need to identify alternative energy storage solutions. Pumped hydro energy storage, which accounts for the vast majority of global grid-scale storage, remains one of the most cost-effective and long-duration storage technologies available. Hence, this study presents a novel tool designed to assess the untapped potential of inland lakes and reservoirs for micro-PSH, using Michigan’s relatively flat landscape as a case study due to its extensive but underutilized water infrastructure. To ensure accuracy and reliability, the tool incorporates extensive data gathered from authorized sources, covering more than 420 water facilities and potential reservoirs in the state. The tool evaluates key parameters such as horizontal and vertical distances, volume, and the total storage capacity of each reservoir. Its robust assessment framework integrates these metrics to evaluate each site’s potential. The tool’s intuitive interface and geospatial visualizations support actionable insights for planners and scalable deployment of distributed storage infrastructure.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Developing a digital twin for hydropower systems - an open platform framework

The definition of digital twin in Wikipedia says “A digital twin is a virtual representation that serves as the real-time digital counterpart of a physical object or process.” Indeed, the digital twin (DT) concept was initially introduced at the start of the 21st century with intent to create a digital model to reflect physical systems and derive insight from the model to make the decision on system operation. DT is also a promising enabling technology for realising smart manufacturing and industry 4.0. In general, DTs consist of three main parts: physical product, virtual product, and connected data that link physical and virtual product via various data communication schemes.

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CMIP6-based Multi-model Streamflow Projections over the Conterminous US, Version 1.1

This dataset presents an ensemble of streamflow projections covering the conterminous United States (CONUS), developed to support the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). Multiple Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs) were downscaled using either statistical (DBCCA) or dynamical (RegCM) downscaling methods, based on two meteorological reference datasets (Daymet and Livneh). Subsequently, the downscaled precipitation, temperature, and wind speed data were used to drive two calibrated hydrologic models (VIC and PRMS), with total runoff routed through the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) routing model, producing an ensemble of streamflow projections across 2.7 million NHDPlusV2 stream reaches across the CONUS. Each ensemble member covers the 1980-2019 baseline and 2020-2059 near-future periods under the high-end (SSP585) emission scenario. Additionally, using only DBCCA and Daymet, the projections extend to the 2060-2099 far-future period and encompass three additional emission scenarios (SSP370, SSP245, and SSP126). This dataset is designed to support the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). For further details, refer to Kao et al. (2022), Rastogi et al. (2022), and Ghimire et al. (2023).

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1D Modeling for the Development of a Digital Twin for Hydropower Systems with Applications for a Testing Rig

Modeling and simulation constitute two important parts in constructing a sensible digital twin to mimic the dynamics of hydropower systems. Because of the physical nature of a hydropower system, the basic modeling should cover the water flow systems from the reservoir to the penstock (inlet water pipes), penstock to hydro turbine, and hydro turbine to generator and from the linkage of the hydropower systems to the grid. This report describes initial attempts to model these dynamic components, including the formulation of the linearized state space model for hydro turbine systems using the well-known six-coefficients linearization method and the formulation of the voltage and power dynamical models of a synchronous generator. To validate the accuracy of the proposed model, data collected from Norwegian University of Science and Technology were used to obtain relevant parameters for the model, and the desired simulation results were obtained. Additionally, neural network modeling and learning were also developed and applied to model the generation torque and water flow rate subsystems to demonstrate a potential learning scheme, which can be used in the development of a digital twin.

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Pumped Storage Hydropower FAST Commissioning Technical Analysis

This report is designed to address barriers and solutions to modern pumped storage hydropower (PSH) development by establishing baseline project development knowledge, defining key aspects of project development, and identifying opportunities to reduce project timelines, costs, and risks. This report’s scope includes post-licensing activities and excludes factors related to permitting or licensing. The U.S. PSH fleet is composed of 43 projects providing the majority (95%) of utility-scale electricity storage in the US. However, only one new PSH facility has become operational in the past 20 years. Several factors contribute to diminishing PSH growth in the US, including the magnitude of project costs and financing interest during development and construction; the length of time from project investment until project revenue; permitting challenges and construction risks; competition from other storage technologies; and unrecognized energy storage valuation. Although innovative PSH concepts (including underground, small, and modular systems) have been investigated, widespread application has yet to occur. In short, the time, cost, and risk associated with modern PSH development has resulted in limited recent growth in the United States, despite the rising energy storage demand from increased deployment of variable renewable technologies. To address these challenges, the US Department of Energy’s (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office initiated the PSH Furthering Advancements to Shorten Time to (FAST) Commissioning project, aimed at catalyzing new solutions, designs, and strategies to accelerate PSH development. This report uses available data from previous license applications, ongoing project cost data, and other global PSH project information based on a typical closed-loop PSH project.

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Improving Discovery, Sharing, and Use of Water Data: Initial Findings and Suggested Future Work

Collaborative management of water resources requires a broad suite of “water data” that extends beyond basic information about water quantity and quality to other related topics such as water infrastructure, aquatic ecosystem health, socioeconomic factors, and power generation. Water data are disparate in nature because they are collected and provided by many entities, and in some cases, remain challenging to access and use. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Water Power Technologies Office initiated a project to characterize relevant categories of water data; describe the current state of accessing, using, and visualizing water data; and outline investigatory pathways for future efforts aimed at improving the discovery, sharing, and use of water data. Input on these topics was solicited from a small but diverse cross section of members of the water resources community. Fourteen broad categories of water data were identified: dams; ecology; flood control; hydroclimatology; hydrography; hydrology; hydropower; management landscape; migratory barriers; recreation and aesthetic importance; socioeconomic; water quality; water availability and use; and weather. Stakeholder perspectives on the accessibility and usability of water data indicate these aspects are affected by a complex set of technical and social factors. However, stakeholders generally agreed that better access to water data can provide a range of benefits to water management, and they stressed the need to generate broad support from water data users and producers. Two investigatory pathways were outlined that, taken together, provide a logical progression toward the goals of the project. The first pathway emphasizes further investigation to better define target audiences and data needs, identify opportunities for collaboration between related efforts, and conduct value demonstration activities to generate further support for improving discovery and access of water data. The second pathway focuses on creating a comprehensive vision for potential solutions that improve the discovery of water data. Several activities that align with the first pathway are suggested for the next phase of the project.

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CMIP6-based Multi-model Hydroclimate Projection over the Conterminous US, Version 1.1

This dataset presents a suite of high-resolution downscaled hydro-climate projections over the conterminous United States (CONUS) based on multiple selected Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 GCMs are downscaled using either statistical (DBCCA) or dynamical (RegCM) downscaling approaches based on two meteorological reference datasets (Daymet and Livneh). Subsequently, the downscaled precipitation, temperature, and wind speed are employed to drive two calibrated hydrologic models (VIC and PRMS), enabling the simulation of projected future hydrologic responses across the CONUS. Each ensemble member covers the 1980-2019 baseline and 2020-2059 near-future periods under the high-end (SSP585) emission scenario. Moreover, utilizing only DBCCA and Daymet, the projections are further extended to the 2060-2099 far-future period and across three additional emission scenarios (SSP370, SSP245, and SSP126). This dataset is formulated to support the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). For further details on this dataset, please refer to Kao et al. (2022) and Rastogi et al. (2022).

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

South Asia Group for Energy - Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka set a target of generating 70% of its electricity from renewable energy sources by 2030. This goal includes the addition of 5.8 GW of renewable power capacity, comprising hydropower, solar, wind, and biomass, between 2023 and 2030, with an interim target of adding 2.5 GW of renewable capacity by 2026. To accomplish this, Sri Lanka's power grid needs significant transformation and modernization to handle the integration of variable renewable energy sources effectively. The South Asia Group for Energy (SAGE) is helping Sri Lanka's grid operator, the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB), understand the gaps for operating the grid with higher renewable share and identifying technology and research requirements to establish a variable renewable energy control center.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗

Magnetic Gears: The Key to Robust, Cost-Effective Hydropower Drivetrains

Based on previous demonstrated success at fabricating 5 and 10 kW scale magnetic gearbox (MGB) prototypes, Emrgy and its partners (the project team) proposed to design and construct a 100 kW scale MGB with a 30:1 gear ratio for the low-head hydro applications. The Statement of Project Objectives included tasks covering: 1) Market Applicability; 2) Technical Metrics; 3) Design (initial); 4) Electromagnetic (EM) Load and Structural Analysis; 5) Modal Analysis; 6) Sealing Design and 7) Final Design during Budget Period 1. Budget Period 2 included tasks covering: 1) Materials Procurement and Test Plan Development; 2) Assembly; and 3) Testing. The Market Applicability study (Task 1) led to a clear conclusion and recommendation toward “Low Head” technologies for maximum market share of both New Stream Reach development as well as powering Non-Powered Dams. The findings of this study also identified the opportunity for a larger scale magnetic gearbox-based drive train as a function of increased torque, as opposed to increased speed. The Technical Metrics Study (Task 2) concluded a horizontal orientation was preferred, examined potential loss mechanisms, concluded that a Halbach Array magnetic design was preferred, established a 30:1 gear ratio as optimal, and established a power rating of 100 kW as optimal. The subsequent initial and final detailed design process included electro-magnetic (EM) load and structural analysis (Task 4), a Modal analysis (for vibration) (Task 5), and a sealing design (Task 6) to assure water impermeability. The final design package (Task 7) included 729 individual parts, 117 unique part numbers, and 15 assemblies. In order to facilitate procurement, the full bill of materials was broken down into several sub-components: 1) custom magnetic parts; 2) custom machined parts; 3) custom casted parts; and 4) commercial off the shelf (COTS) parts. The casted parts were fabricated by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) via a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) with Emrgy and funded by the Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO). The procurement effort (Task 8) ultimately covered three time periods based on challenges encountered in meeting the budgeted cost for the prototype. Following the first effort in the early stages of Budget Period 2 in 2017, a no-cost time extension was granted to seek alternative fabrication and procurement options. The project was re-booted in 2020 based on the new ORNL CRADA that would focus on five (5) of the more difficult and expensive parts using their advanced manufacturing expertise. Procurement efforts for the other custom machined parts resulted in quotations that still exceeded the budget by more than $\$$100k. This was, in part, also due to the concurrent COVID-19 pandemic that caused both supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. As the project continued, pricing and availability degraded further. In Q2 FY’22, it was decided to not proceed with the fabrication of the prototype (Task 9) based on budgetary limitations. Outcomes included a full and detailed design of a 100 kW magnetic gearbox and associated indented bill of materials (BOM) and CAD drawings, a full assembly instruction manual with an associated BOM for materials necessary to support assembly, the fabrication of the double Halbach magnetic array for the rotor/stator system, fabrication of five (5) sand-casted/machined parts (via CRADA with ORNL) and an initial draft of a comprehensive testing plan. The most significant non-outcome was the actual fabrication and testing of the prototype gearbox based on budget limitations. Lessons learned included the need for an Application / Design / Cost trade analysis to better elucidate the cost potential of the MGB in the projected volumes anticipated for future demand. This would better establish the efficacy of the original cost target ($\$$0.80/Watt) and/or the need for reconsideration of designs and applications. Likewise, additional consideration of the prototype nature of the gearbox – single use, short lifetime, etc. - either as a separate exercise or in place of the design process completed, to reduce the cost of the demonstration prototype device. Additionally, project continuity was cited as a significant risk based on the loss of the primary design engineering firm after Budget Period 1. A design analysis exercise was conducted at the conclusion of the project to identify potential areas for cost reduction. One concept considered was the removal of the inner ring of magnets (with associated changes in the outer ring magnets) to enable a horizontal collapse of the design. It was estimated this could reduce cost by 10-25% without impacting performance.

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Researcher Views on Water Data Accessibility, Usability, and Dissemination

Ultimately, the challenges that researchers face with finding, accessing, using, and disseminating water data affect their ability to do mission critical research for DOE and other sponsors. We interviewed PNNL researchers who support DOE’s Water Power Technologies Office and summarize their views on issues pertaining to data access, use, and dissemination. We also take a closer look at approaches to disseminating data to help inform WPTO and lab researcher decisions about incorporating data dissemination into future projects.

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Intersections of Disadvantaged Communities and Renewable Energy Potential: Data Set and Analysis to Inform Equitable Investment Prioritization in the United States

Renewable energy development can bolster local economies through job creation, local tax revenues, and reduced energy costs; however, communities most in need of economic development and employment opportunities often see lower levels of renewable energy deployment. We sought to identify areas where disadvantaged community indicators and high generation potential from cost-effective renewable energy opportunities intersect and deployment could lead to economic development and job creation. This presentation will highlight several of our findings. This research and the associated county-level data set are intended to inform national- and state-level energy-related assistance programs, economic development efforts, and infrastructure programs seeking to prioritize investments in disadvantaged communities.

community energy planning↗

Complementarity of Renewable Energy-Based Hybrid Systems

Increased attention has focused on scenarios of rapid and deep decarbonization of the U.S. electricity supply, with least-cost solutions typically involving significant expansion of renewable energy, energy storage, and transmission assets. Strategies that enable the integration of renewable energy projects while minimizing transmission expansion could be especially valuable in the future. It is within this context that the concept of hybrid power plants (or hybrid energy systems) has gained prominence. One specific example is the FlexPower concept, which seeks to demonstrate how coupling variable renewable energy (VRE) and energy storage technologies can result in renewable-based hybrid power plants that provide full dispatchability and a full range of reliability and resiliency services, similar to or better than fuel-based power plants.

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Thermal Energy Storage Using Solid Particles for Long-Duration Energy Storage

The rapid growth of renewable energy increases the importance of economically firming the electricity supply from variable solar photovoltaic- and wind-power generators. Energy storage will be the key to manage variability and to bridge the generation gap over time scales of hours or days for high renewable grid integration. The integration of renewable power and storage of excess electricity has several significant and positive impacts including: 1) expanding the renewable energy portion of total electricity generation, 2) improving the peak-load response, and 3) coordinating the electricity supply and demand over the grid. Long-duration energy storage can potentially complement the reduction of fossil-fuel baseload generation that otherwise would risk grid security when a large portion of grid power comes from variable renewable sources. Several energy storage methods are deployed or under development, including mechanical, chemical or electrochemical, and thermal energy storage (TES). Comparing their economic potential for different scales and applications helps identify suitable technology to support high renewable grid integration. Despite the progress of TES technologies developed and deployed with concentrating solar power (CSP) systems, TES has been undervalued for its potential role in electric energy storage. This paper introduces TES methods applicable to grid energy storage and particularly focuses on solid-particle-based TES to serve the purpose of long-duration energy storage (LDES). The objective of this paper is to present a standalone particle-based TES system for electric storage and to show the potential of TES systems for LDES applications over other energy storage methods such as batteries, compressed-air energy storage, or pumped-storage hydropower.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗

Technology Pathways Could Help Drive the U.S. West Coast Grid's Exposure to Hydrometeorological Uncertainty

Abstract Previous studies investigating deep decarbonization of bulk electric power systems and wholesale electricity markets have not sufficiently explored how future grid pathways could affect the grid's vulnerability to hydrometeorological uncertainty on multiple timescales. Here, we employ a grid operations model and a large synthetic weather ensemble to “stress test” a range of future grid pathways for the U.S. West Coast developed by ReEDS, a well‐known capacity planning model. Our results show that gradual changes in the underlying capacity mix from 2020 to 2050 can cause significant “re‐ranking” of weather years in terms of annual wholesale electricity prices (with “good” years becoming bad, and vice versa). Nonetheless, we find the highest and lowest ranking price years in terms of average electricity price remain mostly tied to extremes in hydropower availability (streamflow) and load (summer temperatures), with the strongest sensitivities related to drought. Seasonal dynamics seen today involving spring snowmelt and hot, dry summers remain well‐defined out to 2050. In California, future supply shortfalls in our model are concentrated in the evening and occur mostly during periods of high temperature anomalies in late summer months and in late winter; in the Pacific Northwest, supply shortfalls are much more strongly tied to negative streamflow anomalies. Under our more robust sampling of stationary hydrometeorological uncertainty, we also find that the ratio of dis‐patchable thermal (i.e., natural gas) capacity to wind and solar required to ensure grid reliability can differ significantly from values reported by ReEDS.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Water and Climate Impacts on ERCOT Long-Term Systems Assessment

Water and climate change pose many potential challenges to the electric power system. Substantial water is withdrawn every day to support thermoelectric power generating unit operations, and changes to water supply have the potential to affect generation dispatch. Climate change can accelerate growing demand for electricity, which can necessitate additional generating capacity, often in locations with limited water supply. Drought conditions also threaten thermoelectric power plant operations due to streamflow and reservoir levels dropping below intake structures, or water temperatures exceeding a power plants' permitted operating conditions. Here we explore how future climate change might influence decisions related to electricity capacity expansion planning in Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) using a multi-model framework. Specifically, water resource modeling is used to simulate climate impacts on the future water supply for thermoelectric and hydropower generation for four future climate projections. Separately, temperature impacts on electricity load are evaluated for these scenarios. These climate impacts are applied to five alternative electricity futures in an electricity capacity expansion model that projects future generation and transmission capacity additions in ERCOT. Results indicate that climate has a measurable influence on future generation and transmission capacity needs, with temperature-driven increases in peak and average load resulting in 5-15 GW additional generating capacity and up to 1 GW additional transmission capacity. Additional capacity is a diverse mix of PV, natural gas, and wind, depending on the makeup of economic, policy and technology assumptions. Climate impacts increase total system costs 2-5%, while the marginal cost of energy and emissions are not affected substantially by climate change effects.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Probabilistic Diffusion Models Advance Extreme Flood Forecasting

Extreme floods pose escalating risks in a changing climate, yet forecasting remains challenging due to peak flow underestimation and high uncertainty. We introduce diffusion-based runoff model (DRUM), a probabilistic deep learning (DL) approach that advances extreme flood forecasting across representative basins in the contiguous United States. DRUM outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks, enhancing nowcasting skill for the top 1‰ of flows in 72.3% of studied basins. Under operational scenarios, DRUM extends reliable lead times by nearly a full day for 20- and 50-year floods. When evaluated with measured precipitation, an ideal condition, recall improves by 0.3–0.4 and the early warning window extends by 2.3 days for 50-year floods. The enhancement potential varies regionally, with precipitation-driven flood zones in the eastern and northwestern US benefiting most, gaining 3–7 days in lead time. These findings highlight the transformative potential of diffusion models as a cutting-edge generative AI technique for advancing hydrology and broader Earth system sciences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Capacity contributions of Southern Oregon offshore wind to the Pacific Northwest and California

Variable renewable energy generation poses unique capacity challenges, which increasingly depend on weather events at varying timescales. Facilitated by transmission planning, geographic and technological diversity of the generation fleet may provide a mitigation to capacity shortfalls. In this work, offshore wind (OSW) energy is sited in the areas off the West Coast between Coos Bay, Oregon, and Crescent City, California. Three generation and transmission scenarios are modeled within the Western Interconnection: (i) 3.4 gigawatts (GW) of installed OSW capacity connected to Southern Oregon through a High Voltage Alternating Current (HVAC) Radial Topology in 2030; (ii) 12.9 GW of installed OSW capacity connected to Washington, Oregon, and California through a High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) Radial Topology post-2030, and (iii) the same 12.9 GW connected to the same locations through a Multi-terminal DC (MTDC) Backbone Topology post-2030. Zonal dispatch simulations assuming coincident wind, solar, and hydropower production and loads over 18 meteorological years, accounting for temperature-dependent equipment derating and forced outages, serve as inputs to the Associated System Capacity Contribution (ASCC) methodology. The capacity credit is 33%, 25% and 34% for the 2030 HVAC Radial Topology, 2030+ HVDC Radial Topology, and 2030+ MTDC Backbone Topology, respectively. Transmission design is shown to mitigate the typical erosion of marginal capacity contribution as more OSW is developed, underscoring the opportunity for grid modernization while decarbonizing the generation mix.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Dayflow-PR: High-Resolution Streamflow Reanalysis for Puerto Rico, Version 1.0

This dataset presents a high-resolution historical streamflow reanalysis for NHDPlusV2 stream reaches across Puerto Rico (PR) spanning 1950 - 2019. The reanalysis is generated using the calibrated VIC-RAPID hydrologic modeling framework at the Hydrologic Unit Code Sub-basin (HUC08) scale, forced with sub-daily and daily meteorological forcings from Daymet. Runoff is simulated on 1- and 6-km grids, and the resulting total runoff is routed through the NHDPlusV2 river network using the RAPID routing model to produce Naturalized Streamflow Reanalysis. Where complete observational records are available over 1980 - 2019, streamflows are assimilated (substituted) and subsequently routed downstream through the river network to produce Assimilated Streamflow Reanalysis. The dataset includes streamflow outputs from eight distinct hydrologic modeling configurations along with key performanc evaluation metrics at daily and monthly scales, supporting a wide range of water resource applications. This dataset is derived to support the Non-Powered Dam Assessment, as well as 9505 Secure Water Assessment projects for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). For further details, refer to Ghimire et al. (2023), Kao et al. (2024), and Ghimire et al. (2025).

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