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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Computer-Based Procedures Among Older Adults: Findings from the Rancor Microworld Simulator

As with many industries worldwide, nuclear energy is experiencing an aging workforce; older than other energy sources and the national average. For example, while almost one in three nuclear industry professionals are 55+ years, for oil and gas that number is one in five. The challenges brought about by an aging workforce are one of the industry’s top concerns. However, the industry lacks for empirical research that examines the effects of developmental aging in older workers, as well as the interactions between aging and new digital technologies. We present the results of an experiment that tested three different computer-based procedures in a sample of 30 older adults (55+ years). While the industry has traditionally relied on paper-based procedures, these are being modernized by digital technology. Participants were randomly assigned to one of three procedure-types that varied by the level of digitalization, based on the IEEE Standard-1786. Type 1 essentially represents a digital representation of a paper-based procedure, Type 2 adds embedded indicators, and Type 3 adds soft controls. Participants performed two different operational scenarios (startup and loss of feedwater) on a simplified nuclear power plant simulator. Results revealed a weak signal that Type 2 may produce lower workload and lower completion times in some instances. However, there were no significant effects of procedure-type across any other outcomes, including simulator log data, situation awareness, and preference ratings. We discuss our findings in terms of optimal levels of digitalization/automation for an aging nuclear workforce and suggest pathways for future directions.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗
DOE OSTI2025

A framework for testing soil carbon dynamics post land-use transition in a multisector dynamics model

Soil carbon plays a crucial role in the global carbon cycle. Changes in land use can determine whether carbon is stored or is emitted into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, which has broad implications for the human and Earth systems. These feedbacks to the carbon cycle and their socio-economic drivers are modelled by many global multisector dynamics models to project future possibilities for the human-Earth system. One notable model of this class is the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), which uses a simplified process to model soil organic carbon (SOC) content after land-use transition across 384 land units. While the current GCAM soil carbon framework is based on scientific principles, it has not been tested against experimental data. This work examines rates of SOC change from GCAM input data. Specifically, first order rate constants derived from model inputs were compared to values from two syntheses to assess GCAM’s accuracy. Welch’s t-tests and linear models were used to determine if rate constants were consistent across all tested geographical areas and land-use transition types. While we found that there was general agreement on the direction and magnitude (i.e., rate) of SOC change, the rate constant derived from GCAM and empirical values differed strongly in a subset of specific instances. These results indicate that GCAM’s current SOC dynamics during land use transition successfully capture broad patterns of change in this critical carbon pool, but should be interpreted with caution at finer spatial scales. One potential cause of these discrepancies is our highly aggregated variable, soil timescale, which could be made more granular to improve accuracy. When using economically rooted multisector dynamics models, such as GCAM, it is critical to understand such model limitations for representing specific Earth system processes.

carbon↗
DOE OSTI2024

Human readiness levels and Human Views as tools for user-centered design

The Human Readiness Level (HRL) scale is a simple nine-level scale that brings structure and consistency to the real-world application of user-centered design. It enables multidisciplinary consideration of human-focused elements during the system development process. Use of the standardized set of questions comprising the HRL scale results in a single human readiness number that communicates system readiness for human use. The Human Views (HVs) are part of an architecture framework that provides a repository for human-focused system information that can be used during system development to support the evaluation of HRL levels. Here, this paper illustrates how HRLs and HVs can be used in combination to support user-centered design processes. A real-world example for a U.S. Army software modernization program is described to demonstrate application of HRLs and HVs in the context of user-centered design.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Artificial Intelligence for Enhancing Multiscale Analysis: Buildings Focus

This project aims to develop multi-scale building energy data, potentially improving the representation of the U.S. buildings sector in GCAM-USA, an U.S.-focused human-energy-Earth systems model. Existing building energy datasets are typically limited to national or regional levels, which constrains the ability of models to capture fine-scale human-energy-Earth systems interactions and reduces their relevance for decision-making on issues such as energy security, resilience, and energy planning. By leveraging AI and advanced data integration methods, this work fuses multiple existing datasets to enhance the physical and geographic representation of both residential and commercial building energy use. So far, progress includes processing residential building data, designing the data structure for commercial buildings, and testing AI approaches for integrating datasets and addressing spatial-temporal gaps. This effort can not only advances GCAM-USA’s capability in modeling the buildings sector but also supports broader DOE missions, such as developing digital testbeds, enhancing grid resilience analysis, and improving building–energy system modeling at decision-relevant scales.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Translating nanoparticle dosimetry from conventional in vitro systems to occupational inhalation exposures

As encouraged by Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century, researchers increasingly apply high-throughput in vitro approaches to identify and characterize nanoparticle hazards, including conventional aqueous cell culture systems to assess respiratory hazards. Translating nanoparticle dose from conventional toxicity testing systems to relevant human exposures remains a major challenge for assessing occupational risk of nanoparticle exposures. Here, we explored existing computational tools and data available to translate nanoparticle dose metrics from cellular test systems to inhalation exposures of silver nanoparticles in humans. We used the Multiple-Path Particle Dosimetry (MPPD) Model to predict deposition of humans exposed to 20 and 110 nm silver nanoparticles at 0.9 µg/m3 over an 8 hr period, the proposed a National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) recommended exposure limit (REL). MPPD predicts 1.88 and 0.98 µg of silver deposited in an 8 hr period for 20 and 110 nm nanoparticles, respectively, with 20 nm particles displaying nearly 11-fold higher total surface area deposited. Peak nanoparticle concentrations occurred more proximal in the pulmonary tract compared to mass deposition patterns (generation 5 vs. generations 20-21, respectively) due to regional differences in lung lining fluid volumes. Assuming 0.4% nanoparticle dissolution by mass as previously measured, we predict peak concentrations of silver ions in cells of 0.24 and 0.17 µg/mL for 20 and 110 nm particles, respectively. Both predicted concentrations are below the measured toxic threshold of 1.7 µg/mL of silver ions in cells from in vitro assessments. Assuming 4% dissolution by mass, we predict 10-fold higher silver concentrations in tissues, peaking at 2.4 and 1.7 µg/mL, for 20 and 110 nm nanoparticles respectively, exceeding the observed in vitro toxic threshold and highlighting the importance and sensitivity of dissolution rates. Overall, this approach offers a framework for extrapolating nanotoxicity results from in vitro cell culture systems to human exposures. Aligning appropriate dose metrics from in vitro and in vivo hazard characterizations and human pulmonary doses from occupational exposures are critical components for successful nanoparticle risk assessment and worker protection and provide guidance for designing future in vitro studies aimed at relevant human exposures.

Smith, Jordan N.↗
DOE OSTI2021

About the Complex Natural and Engineered Systems Pillar

Los Alamos National Laboratory is a world leader in applying multi-disciplinary science to complex systems within the Complex Natural and Engineered Systems (CNES) challenge areas. Our search for solutions requires science and technology innovation, as well as an integrated experiment, theory, and modeling and simulation approach. Our research and development spans from improving engineered systems such as nuclear weapons and the power grid, to understanding the interface of human and engineered systems from the subsurface to space, to studying how complex natural systems such as disease and climate impact humanity.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Human electromagnetic field exposure in wearable communications systems: A review

While wearable technologies have taken essential parts of our daily lives, concerns on human health are often overseen. Mainly due to extreme proximity or direct physical contact to human skin, wearable communications devices are prone to cause higher levels of electromagnetic field (EMF) exposure at human skin surface than any other type of wireless technologies. Nevertheless, while focusing on theoretical aspects of human EMF exposure in wearable communications, prior work paid little to no attention on exact exposure levels generated by commercial wearable devices that are already widely used by public consumers. In this context, this paper provides an extensive review of SAR from various commercial wearable devices that are currently sold in the market, as well as the analytical framework and the current measurement methodologies for standard compliance tests. To extend the discussion to general wearable communications, this paper presents simulation results adopting representative antenna patterns, which leads to suggestion of separation distances to keep the current safety guidelines. In particular, considering the increasing interest in millimeter wave (mmW), this paper sheds light on EMF exposure evaluated at 60 GHz and compares to results from 2.4 GHz.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Rancor-HUNTER: A Virtual Plant and Operator Environment for Predicting Human Performance

Advances in simulation capabilities to model physical systems have outpaced the development of simulations for humans using those physical systems. There is an argument that the infinite span of potential human behaviors inherently render human modeling more challenging than physical systems. Despite this challenge, the need for modeling humans interacting with these complex systems is paramount. As technologies have improved, many of the failure modes originating from the physical systems have been solved. This means the overall proportion of human errors has increased, such that it is not uncommon to be the primary driver of system failure in modern complex systems. Moreover, technologies such as automated systems may introduce emerging contexts that can cause new, unanticipated modes of human error. Therefore, it is now more important than ever to develop models of human behavior to realize overall system error reductions and achieve established safety margins. To support new and novel concepts of operations for the anticipated wave of advanced nuclear reactor deployments, human factors and human reliability analysis researchers need to develop advanced simulation-based approaches. This talk presents a simulation environment suitable to both collect data and then perform Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate human performance and develop better models of human behavior. Specifically, the Rancor Microworld Simulator models a complex energy production system in a simplified manner. Rancor includes computer-based procedures, which serve as a framework to automatically classify human behaviors without manual, subjective experimenter coding during scenarios. This method supports a detailed level of analysis at the task level. It is feasible for collecting large sample sizes required to develop quantitative modelling elements that have historically challenged traditional full-scope simulator study approaches. Additionally, the other portion of this experimental platform, the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER), is presented to show how the collected data can be used to evaluate novel scenarios based on the contextual factors, or performance shaping factors, derived from Rancor simulations. Rancor-HUNTER is being used to predict operator performance with new procedures, such as results from control room modernization or new-build situations. Rancor-HUNTER is also proving a useful surrogate platform to model human performance for other complex systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Load Shedding for Voltage Regulation With Probabilistic Agent Compliance

With the increased observability and controllability of distribution systems, the share of behind-the-meter systems is trending upwards rapidly. As a consequence, the impact of human behaviors on system performance can no longer be ignored and should be reflected in the energy management system models. In this paper, we discuss the problem of distribution system voltage control by active power curtailment where the agent compliance of the load curtailment signal is probabilistic. We discuss the modeling of the optimal voltage control problem with probabilistic agent compliance as a chance-constrained optimization problem, its tractable safe approximation using convex restriction, and a scenario-based mixed-integer reformulation as well as the associated solution method based on augmented Lagrangian method. The numerical simulation on IEEE test system validates the effectiveness of the proposed approach in obtaining high-quality feasible load curtailment signal with low computational cost, which makes it a viable tool for real time decision making.

augmented Lagrangian method↗
DOE OSTI2023

The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II in order to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks, expected to become severe as a consequence of the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions, exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems, and responses through (mal)adaptation measures. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs by holistically assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, their treatment cannot always organize such assessment according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes, often times having to extrapolate the big-picture evolution of risk from either qualitative effects of “low” medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C). In this study we offer as systematic a representation as possible – given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 (WGI) supplemented when needed by more recent literature. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels to the extent possible. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with global average temperature change has been assessed. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - the link to increasing global temperatures can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice-sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different levels of warming remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems when these changes happen in conjunction with these systems’ conditions of exposure and vulnerability, and in lack of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in an often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future possible evolution which represents an important component – if never the only one – of the potential future evolution of risk severity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fecal microbiota transplant rescues mice from human pathogen mediated sepsis by restoring systemic immunity

Death due to sepsis remains a persistent threat to critically ill patients confined to the intensive care unit and is characterized by colonization with multi-drug-resistant healthcare-associated pathogens. Here we report that sepsis in mice caused by a defined four-member pathogen community isolated from a patient with lethal sepsis is associated with the systemic suppression of key elements of the host transcriptome required for pathogen clearance and decreased butyrate expression. More specifically, these pathogens directly suppress interferon regulatory factor 3. Fecal microbiota transplant (FMT) reverses the course of otherwise lethal sepsis by enhancing pathogen clearance via the restoration of host immunity in an interferon regulatory factor 3-dependent manner. This protective effect is linked to the expansion of butyrate-producing Bacteroidetes. Taken together these results suggest that fecal microbiota transplantation may be a treatment option in sepsis associated with immunosuppression.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of Peripheral Neurophotonic Systems for High-Performance Human-Computer Interfaces (CRADA Final Report)

As part of the Cyclotron Road program, Morphosis Inc. sought to investigate a non-invasive neuromuscular sensing approach for use as an intuitive and secure human–computer interface. These highly miniaturized, wearable neural interfaces were completely non-invasive and maintained stable, high-bandwidth, long-term access to a user’s actions, intent, and identity, while offering an exceptionally high signal-to-noise ratio compared to contemporary neural recording technologies. The widespread adoption of neural interfaces had the potential to reshape how people interact with technology, with profound societal impacts. Millions worldwide suffered from movement and/or speech disabilities, and these tools had the potential to democratize access to technology to enhance autonomy and quality of life. More broadly, interfaces capable of accurately conveying intentions and safeguarding identities could serve as a cornerstone for privacy, trust, and personal authenticity in digital environments. The use of thought-driven control of digitally enabled devices and governance of digital identities had the potential to revolutionize relationships with technology, transforming how people learn, communicate, and interact with the world.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of a Runtime Data Sharing Architecture over LTE for a Heterogeneous CAV Fleet

This paper describes a lightweight runtime architecture for telemetry, communication, and control of cars deployed with advanced driver assistance systems where a human is in the loop with the car, via an LTE connection. The system architecture supports both local control decisions based on car sensors and safety algorithms as well as high-level input from external systems that may provide insight into traffic state ahead of sensor data. Implementation of the architecture is done in ROS and depends on open-source software packages for runtime decoding of information from the vehicle’s controller area network (CAN) and integration of GPS data from accompanying sensors. The contribution of the paper is to describe the overall architecture, the data it can communicate to other systems, performance of the system at runtime, and challenges faced when deploying the architecture across a heterogeneous fleet. Preliminary results from analysis of test data will provide insights into whether the use of high-latency communication can be effective for societal-scale intelligent transportation systems when applied in future scenarios

Richardson, Alex↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulator Data Analysis to Inform Digitalized Environment Impacts on Human Reliability

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has developed a human reliability analysis (HRA) method, termed the Integrated Human Event Analysis System for Event and Condition Assessment (IDHEAS-ECA), in order to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) in risk-informed regulatory applications. To update the quantification part of IDHEAS-ECA, the NRC required human performance and error data from fully digitalized main control rooms (MCRs); therefore, it requested that Idaho National Laboratory (INL) revisit previous data collection studies and investigate how the following three factors impact human reliability: self-checking, peer-checking, and automation. The HRA data collection studies revisited were the Human Reliability Data Extraction (HuREX) project, developed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), and the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP), developed by INL. HuREX is a representative HRA data collection study that collects human reliability data from full-scope simulators staffed by licensed operators. SHEEP, on the other hand, has been proposed to complement such full-scope studies by collecting data via simplified simulators staffed by non-licensed student operators. In the HuREX study, KAERI collected HRA data from fully digitalized MCRs for the Advanced Power Reactor (APR)–1400. The SHEEP data were obtained from simplified simulators that partially mimicked the features of digitalized MCRs. The present report mainly discusses how the impacts of the aforementioned three factors on human errors were derived from these two data collection studies.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Considerations regarding the Use of Computer Vision Machine Learning in Safety-Related or Risk-Significant Applications in Nuclear Power Plants

With the advancements made to date in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), significant potential exists to utilize AI capabilities for nuclear power plant (NPP) applications. AI can replicate human decision making and it is usually faster and more accurate than humans. For implementations that impact critical NPP applications (e.g., safety-related or non-safety systems that potentially affect overall plant risk), a deeper safety analysis of the AI methods is necessary. AI applied to NPP operations could resemble the use of digital I&C (DI&C) because such applications involve digital computer hardware and custom-designed software that input plant data, execute complex software algorithms, and output the results to a system or licensed human operator to potentially provoke an action. For AI methods to be compliant with current safety requirements for DI&C, AI compatibility must be evaluated, and AI-related gaps may exist that prevent the prompt deployment of AI in NPPs. This effort aims to evaluate how example AI technologies align with the DI&C safety framework, and discusses how they could be analyzed, modeled, tested, and validated in a manner similar to typical DI&C technologies. Because AI is a broad field that encompasses areas such as machine learning (ML), natural language processing, and computer vision, this research focused on a subset of methods categorized as the computer vision ML (CVML) methods. This report explores two CVML use cases, gauge reading and fire watch, considered relevant to the DI&C standards, as they could play a safety-critical role. For the gauge reading use case, a CVML-enabled technology that can read gauges at oblique angles is utilized. For the fire watch use case, a CVML-enabled technology is utilized that migrates fire watch from a manual (human) approach to automated fire detection. These use cases are mainly intended to give context to the CVML system discussion. This effort assumes the worst-case scenario, with the CVML system being used to replace a safety-related or risk-significant system, thus requiring evaluation. Evaluating CVML against most of the relevant safety requirements for DI&C yielded several CVML-specific considerations due to the uniqueness of its characteristics in comparison with typical DI&C systems. For example, CVML models often employ commonly used (open-source) datasets, and it is not always possible to determine the level of overlap among open-source datasets. Therefore, the independence of the developed CVML models when demonstrating diversity is questionable, therefore creating vulnerability to common cause failure (CCF). The design verification process is also impacted since the data overlap could result in overestimation of the software validation and verification (V&V) performance results. Section 2 of this report evaluates a list of the identified CVML-specific characteristics and discusses the resulting considerations and potential solutions in the context of each referenced requirement. A summation is provided in Section 3. This report is not to be used as a guideline. It was developed to identify and consider issues in the implementation of ML technologies used to augment activities that may have a bearing on plant operation. The report draws parallels to the use of DI&C technologies, for which many standards are available to guide their use in nuclear plant operation. It considers the technologies and some of the potential implications of their use in safety-related applications but is not intended to address regulatory or licensing related issues.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Graph-Based Modeling for the Detection and Tracking of Sarin-Surrogate-Induced Neurotoxicity Using a Human-Relevant, In-Vitro Brain Model

Organophosphorus (OP) nerve agents are a chemical threat to the United States, to the civilian population (e.g., pesticides) and historically weaponized (e.g., sarin) as chemical warfare agents. The unprecedented, accelerated process from “bench-to-bedside” during the SARSCov2 pandemic has made it clear that technology and tools need to be readily available for immediate response. Advances in human organ tissue mimetic systems are a promising technology to evaluate the human-relevant response in vitro for basic and applied research and drug screening. In particular, current brain microphysiological systems (MPS) have the capability to monitor and detect changes in engineered human neural circuit activity. However, current data analytics approaches for these systems lack the granularity to functionally detect and distinguish the different mechanisms that occur in the brain following neurotoxicity, injury, and disease. The goal of this project was to advance the computational analytical capabilities of the brain MPS to detect functional changes in neural circuit structure at different stages of Sarin surrogate-induced neurotoxicity. We developed graph-based models to (1) identify the composition of the neural circuit structure; (2) detect and monitor how this structure changes following sarin-induced neurotoxicity; and (3) evaluate the analytical pipeline using known/promising oxime reactivators. Through experiments on the bMPS where in vitro neuronal cultures were exposed to a sarin surrogate, we demonstrated the capabilities of our computational pipeline to identify different responses in the functional networks of brain cells exposed to low and high concentrations of the nerve agent. We identified a biphasic response of human neural network activity following exposure to a sarin-surrogate that had not been reported in the literature before. The graph-based models and software developed in this project can be used for future studies that leverage the brain MPS technology, such as treatment efficacy assessment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A global analysis on the systemic effects of antibiotics in cultured fish and their potential human health risk: a review

Abstract The rearing of fish in intensive systems reduces their immunity leading to eruption of diseases, consequently prompting the use of antibiotics. Antibiotics are currently used in cultured fish globally to treat/prevent diseases. On the one hand, antibiotics used in aquaculture help to improve fish health by killing or inhibiting pathogenic bacteria proliferation. However, on the other hand, they cause multiple side effects. To date, information on systemic effects of antibiotics in cultured fish is scattered and their potential human health risk remains elusive. This review critically analyses and discusses the available information in the literature on the positive and negative effects of antibiotics in cultured fish and their potential human health risk via fish consumption. The review found 44 different antibiotics dominated by oxytetracycline were studied in various fish species worldwide. Antibiotics used in global aquaculture either decrease or increase fish growth and survival rates. They induce oxidative stress, which affect antioxidant and detoxification responses and cause host–microbiota dysbiosis. These changes compromise the fish immunity system, which ultimately lead to cellular damage. The toxicities generated inhibit the fish aerobic glycolysis, suppress lipogenesis and fatty acid β‐oxidation while increase energy demand by initiating gluconeogenesis and anaerobic glycolysis. Consumption of fish treated with antibiotics causes human health risk. Future studies are required on agents to restore dysfunctions induced by antibiotics in cultured fish, while attempts to limit their utilisation in aquaculture production are underway. [Correction added on 21 November 2020, after first online publication: The abstract has been amended to clarify the scope of the review.]

Limbu, Samwel Mchele↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the Contributions to Human Error Probability from the Convolution of the Distribution of Time Available and Time Required

As part of their duties, Human Reliability Analysis must often evaluate if crews in nuclear power plants (NPPs) can complete tasks associated with a human-failure event within time limits. For example, the time required in NPP scenarios is determined by systematic and structured walkthroughs, feasibility studies, recorded times from training exercises, and interviews with experienced operators and experts. Typically, a point estimate is derived for the estimate (mean, maximum, or 95th percentile of time required). Using point-estimate values can mask the risk associated with variability among crews, plant conditions and set-up, environmental conditions, and other impact factors under which these actions are executed. While point estimates for time required and time available have served the industry well, without considering the uncertainty they could lead to biased understanding about the risk. The Integrated Human Event Analysis System - General Methodology (IDHEAS-G) model (developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC) for human error probability calculates human error probability by summing two probabilities: insufficient time and cognitive error. As such, the model takes a more holistic approach by considering the full distributions for time required and time available to calculate the human error probability because the time available to complete the task is insufficient. In this study, we expand on the work of the NRC and discuss methods for estimating these time considerations. For example, for the time required, the impact of Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) on the distribution was divided into impacts that are aleatory in nature, such as crew-to-crew variability, and those that are epistemic (i.e., the PIFs). Starting with the factors that introduce aleatory uncertainty, a first-order distribution was developed from a large set of time required (i.e., NPP task completion times) data for the range of operator actions that occur in the NPP control room under simulated accident conditions. The first-order distribution can then be adjusted to account for epistemic uncertainty using research associated with the impact of applicable PIFs on the time required. We also develop guidance for analysts to address the probability distributions for the time available. The guidance we developed on how to estimate time required and time available distributions is based on the identification of pertinent research and data, data analyses, and expert knowledge elicitation.

human error probability, human performance, time e↗