Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Hindcast”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

233 records · Page 13

Land-Atmosphere Coupling at the U.S. Southern Great Plains: A Comparison on Local Convective Regimes Between ARM Observations, Reanalysis, and Climate Model Simulations

Using the 9-yr warm-season observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site, we assess the land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling in North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and two climate models: hindcasts with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 by Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed (CAM5-CAPT) and nudged runs with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Atmosphere Model version 1 Regionally Refined Model (EAMv1-RRM). We focus on three local convective regimes and diagnose model behaviors using the Local Coupling metrics (Santanello et al. 2018). NARR agrees well with observations except a slightly warmer and drier surface with higher downwelling shortwave radiation and lower evaporative fraction. On clear-sky days, it shows warmer and drier early-morning conditions in both models with significant underestimates in surface evaporation by EAMv1-RRM. On the majority of the ARM-observed shallow cumulus days, there is no or little low-level clouds in either model. When captured in models, the simulated shallow cumulus shows much less cloud fraction and lower cloud bases than observed. On the days with late-afternoon deep convection, models tend to present a stable early-morning lower atmosphere more frequently than the observations, suggesting that the deep convection is triggered more often by elevated instabilities. Generally, CAM5-CAPT can reproduce the local L-A coupling processes to some extent due to the constrained early-morning conditions and large-scale winds. EAMv1-RRM exhibits large precipitation deficits and warm and dry biases towards mid-to-late summers, which may be an amplification through a positive L-A feedback among initial atmosphere and land states, convection triggering and large-scale circulations.

land-atmosphere↗

Building a Real-Time Predictive Flood Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flood events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of applied remote sensing analyses is increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP National Program partnered with the Howard County government in Maryland to investigate the use of machine learning for advanced flood risk detection, and to test the feasibility of integrating this approach into the county’s flood early warning system. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM), the project developed a prediction model capable of hindcasting the two severe flash flood events that devastated Ellicott City, and transitioned to an Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based sequence-to-sequence deep learning model with 8-hour forecast capability. The team combined data inputs from public sources including river and precipitation gauges, NASA and NOAA Earth observations, and numerical weather model products using scripts written in the Google Colaboratory Python scripting environment. In addition to designing the deep learning architecture, the team trained and tested the model, and evaluated its performance using the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). The final product, called the Sequentially Trained Real-time EstimAted Model (STREAM), predicts stage height for the Hudson Branch gauge in Ellicott City using data products available in near real-time, including the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model’s accumulated precipitation forecasts supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the U.S. Geological Survey. STREAM was incorporated into an online dashboard in a user-friendly interface capable of triggering the alarms that initiate the OEM’s emergency response protocols up to 8 hours in advance of a predicted severe flood event. The project demonstrated the potential for the integration of open data and Earth observations into a flood risk forecasting tool capable of informing near real-time decision making.

Ryan Hammock↗

Estimating Everglades Peat Reserves and Losses on a Landscape-Scale

The Florida Everglades formed from sawgrass and other aquatic plant remains that have accumulated over thousands of years and is a patterned peatland. The region was initially drained for agricultural and urban development in the late 1800s by the lowering of Lake Okeechobee water levels through canal drainage. Over the course of the past century, the Everglades has further been altered by the construction of canals and levees to provide control of Lake Okeechobee and Everglades water levels. The drainage has caused the loss of much of the peat of the Everglades by peat fires and microbial oxidation, much of it occurring between the 1880s and the 1950s. Plans for Everglades restoration are designed to provide additional water to flow through the remaining Everglades. Additional water into the Everglades would prevent further peat loss by reducing oxidation and encouraging the accretion of peat that has been lost. This potentially could result in the sequestration of significant quantities of atmospheric carbon. We used historic records to determine how much peat was there originally and how much has been lost. Over the past century and a half, approximately 50% of the original Everglades has been lost to agricultural and urban development. In addition, much of the peat in the remaining Everglades Protection Area has been lost. We used Geographic Information Systems technologies to determine the volume and mass of peat, the mass of carbon for each of the predrainage landscapes as well as the current Everglades regions. To do this, historical and current surveys within the Everglades were used to create elevation maps. With these maps, along with a bedrock contour map of south Florida, and soils data from the USEPA, we estimated Everglades peat characteristics. These calculations provide rough, quantitative estimates of the historical Everglades, its current condition, and the changes in the peat soil that have taken place since the 19th century. Given the uncertainties in the hindcasting of some of these data sets, this analysis provides rough estimates for the peat volumes and related constituents. Our calculations indicate that the current Everglades roughly contains less than 24% of theoriginal peat volume, 17% of its mass and 19% of its carbon. The work described was fully supported by the South Florida Water Management District, West Palm Beach, FL

Thomas Walter Dreschel↗

GRACE Improves Seasonal Groundwater Forecast Initialization Over the United States

We evaluate the impact of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment data assimilation (GRACE-DA) on seasonal hydrological forecast initialization over the United States, focusing on groundwater storage. GRACE-based terrestrial water storage (TWS) estimates are assimilated into a land surface model for the2003–16 period. Three-month hindcast (i.e., forecast of past events) simulations are initialized using states from the reference (no data assimilation) and GRACE-DA runs. Differences between the two initial hydrological condition (IHC) sets are evaluated for two forecast techniques at 305 wells where depth to water table measurements are available. Results show that using GRACE-DA-based IHC improves seasonal groundwater forecast performance in terms of both RMSE and correlation. While most regions show improvement, degradation is common in the High Plains, where withdrawals for irrigation practices affect groundwater variability more strongly than the weather variability, which demonstrates the need for simulating such activities. These findings contribute to recent efforts toward an improved U.S. drought monitoring and forecast system.

Augusto Getirana↗

Simulation and Scaling of the Turbulent Vertical Heat Transport and Deep-Cycle Turbulence Across the Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue

Microstructure observations in the Pacific cold tongue reveal that strong turbulence often penetrates into the thermocline producing hundreds of W/m2 of downward heat transport during nighttime and early morning. However, virtually all observations of this deep-cycle turbulence (DCT) are from 0◦N,140◦W. Here, a hierarchy of ocean process simulations including submesoscale-permitting regional models and turbulence-permitting large eddy simulations (LES) embedded in a regional model provide insight into DCT at and beyond 0◦N,140◦W. A regional hindcast quantifies the spatio-temporal variability of subsurface turbulent heat fluxes throughout the cold tongue from 1999-2016. Climatologically, the mean heat flux is strongest (∼100W/m2) within2◦ of the equator. The heat flux is slightly (∼10 W/m2) stronger in the northern than southern hemisphere throughout the cold tongue. The seasonal cycle of the heat flux, which is not everywhere aligned with the surface flux, ranges from 150 W/m2 near the equator to 30 W/m2 and 10 W/m2 at 4◦N and S respectively. Aseasonal variability of turbulent heat fluxes is logarithmically distributed and temporally uncorrelated with surface heat fluxes. The aseasonal variability of turbulence is highlighted in 34-day LES of Boreal autumn at 0◦N and 3◦N,140◦W. Intense DCT occurs frequently above the undercurrent at 0◦N and intermittently at 3◦N. Daily-mean heat fluxes scale with the bulk vertical shear and the wind stress, which together explain ∼90% of the daily variance across both LES. Observational validation of the scaling at 0◦N,140◦W is encouraging, but observations beyond 0◦N,140◦W can facilitate needed refinement of mixing parameterization in ocean models.

Simulation↗

The Atmosphere Observing System (AOS): Synergistic Aerosol, Cloud, Convection and Precipitation Measurement and Modeling Systems

The 2017 Decadal Survey (DS) highlighted Earth System Science themes, science and application questions, and several high priority objectives that have led to the inclusion of Aerosols (A) and Clouds-Convection-Precipitation (CCP) as Designated Observables (DOs). On June 1, 2018, several NASA centers (GSFC, LaRC, JPL, MSFC, GRC and ARC) submitted a joint Study Plan to the NASA Earth Science Division for the Aerosol (A) and Cloud, Convection, and Precipitation (CCP) Pre-formulation Study (ACCP), with the ACCP Study concluding in early 2021. The new mission now in pre-phase A is being referred to as the Atmosphere Observing System (AOS), an integral part of NASA’s Earth System Observatory (ESO) strategy. The DS and the ACCP team recognized the science merit in combining the A and CCP DOs for both enhancing the ability to address a number of science objectives and also to provide an expanded capability to address additional objectives beyond those of the individual DOs. A critical element of the ACCP observing strategy is to make extensive use of new passive and active sensors as well as of the so-called Program-of-Record (PoR), complemented by a fully integrated sub-orbital component. In order to achieve maximum benefit, all these observations need to be integrated into comprehensive observing and modeling/data assimilation systems. Such an approach requires comprehensive model-data synthesis capabilities that needs to be conceived in conjunction with the space-based and suborbital components of AOS. In this presentation we will summarize the major science goals of AOS including cloud feedbacks, atmospheric convection, emphasizing aerosol processes and aerosol radiative effects, and the synergistic aspects of clouds-precipitation-aerosol interactions. We will describe examples of how AOS data will be used across space and time to better initialize forecasts and train modeling systems, and to infuse models and data assimilation systems with AOS data for advancing operational predictions and to generate expanded hindcasts and reconstruction of the climate record.

Arlindo da Silva↗

Supporting Space Weather with the Geospace Dynamics Constellation

The Geospace Dynamics Constellation (GDC) mission, planned to launch at the end of the decade, is a six-satellite constellation that will fly through the ionosphere and thermosphere at around 400 km. While GDC is a science mission, its comprehensive instrumentation will not only contribute to our understanding of space weather phenomena in the ionosphere-thermosphere system, but will also provide valuable, space weather-relevant data. Data from GDC will be made available at low latency via real-time space weather data stream. We are working with operational partners to identify space weather data products and coordinate reception of the space weather beacon data. Alongside preparations for real-time GDC data streams, we are working to identify current model capabilities and needs, to ensure that space weather models that can make use of GDC measurements are moving along the Research-toOperations pipeline. Before GDC launch, Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) carried out with synthetic GDC data can be used to demonstrate the capabilities of models and to predict the impact of GDC data. Following launch, Observing System Experiments (OSEs) will demonstrate the impact of GDC space weather data. In preparation for GDC, the ITM space weather community should establish baseline metrics for space weather parameters of scientific and operational interest. These metrics, tracked over time before and after the launch of GDC, will allow us to track advancements in forecasting, nowcasting, and hindcasting of the ITM system and to trace the impact of scientific progress from space weather research into operations. By demonstrating the impact of real-time GDC data, specific data needs can be identified and prioritized for long term investment on future observing systems.

Katherine Garcia-Sage↗

A14H-04 Analysis of Simulated and Observed Trends in Global Surface PM2.5 and Aerosol Optical Properties from 1958 to 2018 Using the NASA GEOSCCM

Modeling of long-term trends of aerosols and their properties is important for constraining aerosol-climate forcing, and for characterizing changes in particulate matter pollution speciation and exposure. Here we study global and regional long-term trends in surface fine particulate matter (PM ) and aerosol optical properties for 60 years from 1958 to 2018, using simulations performed with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM), and evaluate the model hindcast with observations for the last three decades. Comparing the modeled aerosols with a diverse set of observations helps interpret observed and simulated trends, and serves as a benchmark for future GEOSCCM developments and input datasets improvements. We first characterize modeled global and regional temporal changes in surface PM and its components, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and single scattering albedo (SSA) and we interpret their link with emissions drivers. We then compare modeled surface PM with ground-based observations from monitoring networks and with global reconstructed PM datasets from observations-model data fusion. Total AOD is compared with long-term satellite measurements from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and measurements from the ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). Additional aerosol optical properties, such as absorption and scattering coefficients, are evaluated with ground-based observations from the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) records.

aerosols↗

On the Prediction of Surface Melt Over the Greenland Ice Sheet at NWP and S2S Timescales

Greenland surface melt “events” – encompassing large swaths of the ice sheet over approximately 4-10 day periods – have occurred with increasing frequency in the 21st Century. Surface processes are significant to the ice sheet’s overall contribution to sea level. In addition, the sudden onset of widespread surface melt produces hazardous conditions for researchers and for communities adjacent to the ice sheet. The mechanisms producing melt events, their associated large-scale forcing, and timescales of interest are highly variable and poorly understood. Here we examine the predictability of melt events in a numerical weather prediction system (NWP) and a subseasonal-to-seasonal system (S2S). The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office forward processing (GMAO-FP) is an NWP system that incorporates an evolving, global hybrid 4D ensemble–variational (4DEnVar) data assimilation system and a state-of-the-art model that is run twice-daily with forecasts out to five and ten days. The GMAO S2S system is a hindcast-anomaly, coupled-model prediction system initialized with an atmospheric analysis, and in situ and satellite ocean data assimilation. Both systems represent ice sheet surface hydrology and snowpack processes. We examine the performance of the systems over the period 2018-2023, a span that includes approximately nine significant events, against analyses and satellite-derived melt extent. In addition to extent, we examine related conditions and their role in the melt forecast, including the onset of both omega and Rex atmospheric blocking patterns, sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, water vapor transport, precipitation, and surface preconditioning. We further examine the tendency for false-alarm events in each system and assess reasons for the forecast performance. North Atlantic atmospheric blocking patterns leading to surface melt are well forecast by the NWP system out to around eight days, while the S2S system generally underestimates the magnitude of such events at monthly lead times. These systems suggest that while short term forecasts of ice sheet melt and melt events are relatively robust, S2S predictions of surface conditions are highly dependent on the ability of a coupled system to generate the short-term atmospheric conditions associated with surface melt events.

Richard Cullather↗

A High-resolution Regional Wave Resource Characterization For The U.S. West Coast

Objectives/Scope: Wave resource characterization is a critical step for wave energy converter deployment in the coastal ocean and relies on long-term, high-resolution wave datasets. This study presents a detailed modeling study of the wave resource along the U.S. West Coast (Washington, Oregon, and California), a coastal region that was identified with high wave energy potential in earlier studies. Methods, Procedures, Process: The wave hindcast covers a 32-year period from 1979 to 2010 and is based on a multi-resolution, unstructured-grid SWAN model framework. Model configuration closely follows and meets the requirements recommended by the International Electrotechnical Commission Technical Specification (IEC TS) for wave energy resource assessment and characterization (Class 2 - feasibility study). The model domain covers the entire U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the West Coast and has a spatial resolution varying from ~300 m in the nearshore region (20 km from the shoreline) to ~2500 m within the EEZ and ~5000 m at the open boundary, which extends beyond the EEZ. The model was forced by hourly 2-D wave spectra produced by a two-way nested WaveWatch III model, which covers the global ocean domain and the broader U.S. West Coast region domain with spatial resolutions of 0.5 degree and 10 arc-minutes, respectively. Both wave models are forced by hourly, 0.5-degree wind forcing obtained from NCEP’s Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) product. Results, Observations, Conclusions: The standard model output for the SWAN model includes 3-hourly output for the six IEC wave resource parameters (e.g., omnidirectional wave power) at each grid point and hourly 2-D spectra at more than 50 NDBC buoys. Extensive model validation was achieved by comparing the six model-predicted IEC parameters with those derived from field observations at representative NDBC buoys. The error statistics indicated the model’s satisfactory performance. Further analyses were conducted to systematically evaluate the temporal and spatial distributions of wave energy potential and wave climate along the U.S. West Coast. Results suggest that Washington and Oregon coasts have similar nearshore wave resource, which is significantly higher than resources in Southern California. Strong seasonal variations are also observed, e.g., high wave energy tends to occur in the winter months. In summary, this study produced the first high-resolution, comprehensive dataset on wave energy distribution along the U.S. West Coast. Novel/Additive Information: The results are being used by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to update the MHK Atlas, which was originally derived from NOAA’s 4-arc-minute WaveWatch III model output. In addition, the monthly averaged wave energy climatology dataset can be readily shared to support a variety of research and application efforts within the EEZ of the U.S. West Coast.

Wang, Taiping↗

Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning

The Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning (GOOML) project has developed a generic and extensible component-based system modeling framework to study complex geothermal fields using a data-driven approach. Through building a digital twin of a geothermal steam field with the GOOML modeling framework, operators can analyze historical and forecasted power production, explore possible steam field configurations, and optimize real world operations, all in a cost-effective digital environment. The GOOML modeling software is based on a historical data-assimilation framework that uses first-principal thermodynamics to model steam field components using historical data, and a forecast framework that uses machine-learning-driven models of steam field components to predict future operations. This modeling framework creates countless new opportunities for digital exploration of steam field design and operations. To date, digital twins have been developed for several steam fields in New Zealand and the United States. These digital twins have been validated by comparing hindcast predictions against historical production data. Field design and operations have been explored using genetic optimization and reinforcement learning. Initial results show compelling and often surprising opportunities for improved design and operation of fields with 2 to 5 percent improvements in annual energy production. GOOML is driving a step-change in geothermal operations by applying state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, comprehensive data analytics, and a first-of-its-kind intelligent geothermal systems model.

40 EE - Geothermal Technologies Office (EE-4G)↗

GOOML - Finding Optimization Opportunities for Geothermal Operations: Preprint

Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning (GOOML) is a transferable and extensible component-based geothermal asset modeling framework that considers complex steamfield relationships and identifies optimization prospects using a data-driven approach. We have used this framework to develop digital twins that provide steamfield operators with an operational environment to analyze and understand historical and forecasted power production, explore new steamfield configuration possibilities, and seek optimal asset management for real world applications. The GOOML modeling software is built on a generic component-based systems framework that allows for both historical and forecast analysis. A GOOML model can perform historical data-assimilation using first-principal thermodynamics to create a meaningful data model. Historical production data can then be coupled with a forecast framework to train machine-learning models of steamfield components to predict future outputs. This modeling environment enables digital exploration of steamfield design configurations and operational scenarios. GOOML digital twins have been developed for steamfields in New Zealand and the United States representing differing power generation and field conditions. These digital twins have been validated by comparing hindcast predictions against historical production data. Reinforcement learning experiments were conducted to demonstrate the ability to programmatically explore the operations space using machine learning agents. Our initial results are compelling; two to five percent increases in annual energy production were demonstrated by the GOOML models with no additional infrastructure build required. GOOML offers a new approach to geothermal operations by applying state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, comprehensive data analytics, and interaction with digital twins. Through application of these tools, operators will realize greater availability and higher net generation which will increase the cost effectiveness of geothermal energy projects.

access↗

A scalable wave resource assessment methodology: Application to U.S. waters

Waves deliver large quantities of energy to populated coastlines around the world, and wave energy technology research and development has accelerated over the last two decades. Throughout this time national and regional resource assessments have utilized disparate methodologies, which can cause confusion and skepticism. Here, in this work, we describe a theoretical wave resource assessment methodology that addresses many of the major areas of inconsistency and debate. Applying this revised methodology to U.S. waters, we find the theoretical U.S. wave energy resource to be 3300 TWh/yr, with region totals of 2000 TWh/yr in Alaska, 510 TWh/yr along the U.S. west coast, 380 TWh/yr in Hawaii, 290 TWh/yr along the east coast, 69 TWh/yr in the Gulf of Mexico, and 17 TWh/yr in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. We also find significant uncertainty in these estimates associated with the underlying model dataset, which emphasizes the importance of thorough model validation and calibration as well as quantifying uncertainty.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Improved Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole Using a Stochastic Dynamical Model Compared to the North American Multimodel Ensemble Forecast

This study assesses the predictive skill of eight North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) models in predicting the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). We find that the forecasted ensemble-mean IOD–El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) relationship deteriorates away from the observed relationship with increasing lead time, which might be one reason that limits the IOD predictive skill in coupled models. We are able to improve the IOD predictive skill using a recently developed stochastic dynamical model (SDM) forced by forecasted ENSO conditions. The results are consistent with the previous result that operational IOD predictability beyond persistence at lead times beyond one season is mostly controlled by ENSO predictability and the signal-to-noise ratio of the Indo-Pacific climate system. The multimodel ensemble (MME) investigated here is found to be of superior skill compared to each individual model at most lead times. Importantly, the skill of the SDM IOD predictions forced with forecasted ENSO conditions were either similar or better than those of the MME IOD forecasts. Moreover, the SDM forced with observed ENSO conditions exhibits significantly higher IOD prediction skill than the MME at longer lead times, suggesting the large potential skill increase that could be achieved by improving operational ENSO forecasts. We find that both cold and warm biases of the predicted Niño-3.4 index may cause false alarms of negative and positive IOD events, respectively, in NMME models. Many false alarms for IOD forecasts at lead times longer than one season in the original forecasts disappear or are significantly reduced in the SDM forced by forecasted ENSO conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hawai‘i National Marine Renewable Energy Center (HINMREC)

The Hawaii National Marine Renewable Energy Center (HINMREC) was established to facilitate the commercialization of wave energy converter (WEC) devices, and to accelerate development and testing of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) technologies. Housed at the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute (HNEI) of the University of Hawaii (UH), this program started with execution of the contract between the US Department of Energy (DOE) and UH in March 2009, and activities ran through the end of the project in September 2019. The DOE tasked HINMREC with facilitating and accelerating the build-out of the Navy’s Wave Energy Test Site (WETS), the nation’s first grid-connected open water wave energy conversion test facility, located off Marine Corps Base Hawaii (MCBH) in Kaneohe, on the island of Oahu. WETS was expanded from an existing test berth at 30m water depth to include test berths at 60m and 80m water depths. In recognition of the high costs associated with at-sea testing and evaluation of WEC devices, it was deemed imperative that HINMREC seek ways to reduce costs to developers by providing key research support to these early-stage technologies. WETS and HINMREC’s support allowed development of wave energy technology by providing a testing infrastructure that allows technology developers to test, demonstrate and evaluate their WEC devices, and generate data in order to advance WEC designs toward commercial readiness. HINMREC’s roles have included support in the establishment of the full site, including of wave resource characterization and site survey, followed by the essential roles of independent WEC device power performance assessment and environmental monitoring in support of deployed pre-commercial WECs. This DOE-funded work transitioned effectively to continue Navy-funded tasks for OTEC development, and activities at WETS, now under Naval Facilities Engineering Command (NAVFAC) funding. A secondary objective in the establishment of HINMREC was to assist the private sector in moving OTEC systems beyond proof-of-concept to pre-commercialization, primarily focused on system and component engineering, and local and global investigations into the potential environmental impacts of OTEC systems. HINMREC was tasked with maintaining high-resolution models of ocean thermal resources and the potential sustainable power output of OTEC systems. Ongoing tests begun previously under Navy funding at the OTEC Heat Exchangers (HXs) Test Facility at the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority (NELHA), in Kona on Hawaii Island, have been continued to identify cost-effective aluminum alloys for use in OTEC systems operating in the corrosive marine environment.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗