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NASA NTRS1998

Combined Characterisation of GOME and TOMS Total Ozone Using Ground-Based Observations from the NDSC

Several years of total ozone measured from space by the ERS-2 GOME, the Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), and the ADEOS TOMS, are compared with high-quality ground-based observations associated with the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC), over an extended latitude range and a variety of geophysical conditions. The comparisons with each spaceborne sensor are combined altogether for investigating their respective solar zenith angle (SZA) dependence, dispersion, and difference of sensitivity. The space- and ground-based data are found to agree within a few percent on average. However, the analysis highlights for both Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) and TOMS several sources of discrepancies, including a dependence on the SZA at high latitudes and internal inconsistencies.

Lambert, J.-C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impacts of Assimilating Infrared Sounders from Geostationary Orbit

A set of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) was used to assess the impact of assimilating hyperspectral infrared (IR) radiances from geostationary platforms. This was done in preparation for the proposed National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) Sounder (GXS), expected to launch in the 2030s, using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) OSSE framework. From a numerical weather prediction (NWP) perspective, a global “ring” of geostationary IR sounders was found to improve both the analysis and forecasts and provide beneficial impacts as measured by the forecast sensitivity observation impact (FSOI) metric.

Geostationary orbit↗

NASA NTRS2006

On the Rates of Coronal Mass Ejections: Remote Solar and In Situ Observations

We compare the rates of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as inferred from remote solar observations and interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) as inferred from in situ observations at both 1 AU and Ulyssses from 1996 through 2004. We also distinguish between those ICMEs that contain a magnetic cloud (MC) and those that do not. While the rates of CMEs and ICMEs track each other well at solar minimum, they diverge significantly in early 1998, during the ascending phase of the solar cycle, with the remote solar observations yielding approximately 20 times more events than are seen at 1 AU. This divergence persists through 2004. A similar divergence occurs between MCs and non-MC ICMEs. We argue that these divergences are due to the birth of midlatitude active regions, which are the sites of a distinct population of CMEs, only partially intercepted by Earth, and we present a simple geometric argument showing that the CME and ICME rates are consistent with one another. We also acknowledge contributions from (1) an increased rate of high-latitude CMEs and (2) focusing effects from the global solar field. While our analysis, coupled with numerical modeling results, generally supports the interpretation that whether one observes a MC within an ICME is sensitive to the trajectory of the spacecraft through the ICME (i.e., an observational selection effect), one result directly contradicts it. Specifically, we find no systematic offset between the latitudinal origin of ICMEs that contain MCs at 1 AU in the ecliptic plane and that of those that do not.

Riley, Pete↗

NASA NTRS2018

Mangrove Canopy Height Globally Related to Precipitation, Temperature and Cyclone Frequency

Mangrove wetlands are among the most productive and carbon-dense ecosystems in the world. Their structural attributesvary considerably across spatial scales, yielding large uncertainties in regional and global estimates of carbon stocks. Here, wepresent a global analysis of mangrove canopy height gradients and aboveground carbon stocks based on remotely sensed measurementsand field data. Our study highlights that precipitation, temperature and cyclone frequency explain 74% of the globaltrends in maximum canopy height, with other geophysical factors influencing the observed variability at local and regionalscales. We find the tallest mangrove forests in Gabon, equatorial Africa, where stands attain 62.8 m. The total global mangrovecarbon stock (above- and belowground biomass, and soil) is estimated at 5.03 Pg, with a quarter of this value stored inIndonesia. Our analysis implies sensitivity of mangrove structure to climate change, and offers a baseline to monitor nationaland regional trends in mangrove carbon stocks.

Simard, Marc↗

NASA NTRS2024

Development and Implementation of Large-Scale Numerical Models for Shape Memory Mars Spring Tires

The current work focuses on implementation of the user-defined shape memory alloy (SMA) model in the finite element analysis program ABAQUS for large-scale simulations of the Spring Tires made of SMA developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The main objective of this study was to improve and optimize the structural design of the SMA tires through in-depth numerical analysis and sensitivity studies. Various design variables (wire diam., coil diam., pitch, spring length, and bead angle) were varied to study their influence on the global load-displacement response of the tire construct. A detailed investigation of the three-dimensional stress states was also carried out to enhance understanding of the local changes as the tire goes through global deformation. It was concluded that a robust numerical model with a good predictive capability, together with a thoughtfully crafted sensitivity study, can result in reduced design iterations required to reach a desired tire performance. This will, in turn, lead to significantly reduced manufacturing time, required labor, and testing expense.

shape memory alloys↗

NASA NTRS2005

Compact FUV camera concept for Space Weather applications

Far ultraviolet (FUV) images of Earth from space have proven invaluable in revealing contextual phenomena associated with space weather in the high latitude auroral regions and, more recently with TIMED and IMAGE in the mid and equatorial regions. Images of this nature can be used to investigate compelling questions associated with the interaction of the ionosphere/mesosphere-magnetosphere-solar wind. Three such questions are: 1. What are the critical time and spatial scales that determine the coupling between the magnetosphere and ionosphere? 2. What are the sources and characteristics of ionospheric variability? 3. How does the configuration of the magnetosphere change as a function of internal boundary conditions established by the mesosphere/ionosphere and the external driving conditions of the solar wind? Observations that lead to quantitative analyses are required to significantly advance the state of knowledge with regard to the affects of space weather and the interaction between and within these regions of Geospace. Current available image data sets are sufficient for qualitative analysis and morphological investigations, and while quantitative analyses are possible, they are difficult and limited to few events at best. In order to qualitatively access the time, spatial, and causal phenomena on global scales, simultaneous images of various FUV emissions with a combination of better spatial, temporal and spectral resolution and sensitivity than currently available is required. We present an instrument concept that is being developed to improve the spatial, temporal and spectral resolution and sensitivity needed to perform the quantitative analysis that enable significant advancement in our understanding of the impact of space weather on Geospace. The approach is to use the self-filtering concept that combines the imaging and filtering functions and thus reduces the size of the 4-mirror off-axis optical system. The optical and filter design will de described and results of preliminary breadboard tests will be provided.

Spann, James↗

NASA NTRS1984

Simulation Experiments on the Relative Accuracy of Inferred Atmospheric States from Idealized Wind and Temperature Profiling Systems

The First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) led to the planning, design and implementation of a global observing system. Technologies as coherent CO2 LIDAR systems and highly sensitive IR detectors offer the potential of more accurate global spaceborne observation systems. The advent of super computers allows general circulation modeling and more sophisticated data analysis schemes. The consideration of advanced spaceborne systems better suited to meet the new emerging requirements are suggested. The Global Weather Experiment provides us with a new baseline to assess data accuracy and forecasting capabilities which is used for study of the incremental performance.

Halem, M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design and Analysis of Shape Memory Spring Tires for Martian and Lunar Rover Vehicles

Shape memory alloys (SMAs) have played an important role in various innovative engineering and medical applications, such as aerospace actuators, vibration damping devices, and coronary stents. In applications, shape memory alloys are commonly utilized in two fundamentally different ways: (i) making use of the superelasticity/ pseudoelasticity (SE/PE) phenomena, as in applications in biomedical engineering, and (ii) taking advantages of the shape memory effect (SME), as is used for actuators. Their ability to act in such vastly different capacities is mainly due to their unique capability to recover large amounts of deformation produced by either applied stresses or temperature changes. One recent emerging application in use of SMAs has been in the area of non-pneumatic tire designs for Martian or Lunar roving vehicles. These vehicles require tires that are capable of traversing rugged terrain while withstanding extreme temperatures and atmospheric conditions. Inspired by the flexible wire mesh tires used on three Lunar Roving Vehicle (LRV) missions to the Moon on Apollo 15, 16, and 17, a new compliant tire technology was developed by the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) and Goodyear Tire & Rubber, known as the Spring Tire. The Spring Tire consists of several hundred coiled springs woven into a flexible mesh and formed into the shape of a tire. Like the LRV wire mesh tires, the original Spring Tires were made from spring steel and were prone to permanent deformation when undergoing high localized loads. Later, a new iteration of this technology was invented, known as the ‘Superelastic Tire’. This new technology incorporated the use of superelastic SMA springs, which could effectively undergo approximately 30 times more reversible deformation than the steel spring. It also provided even greater durability and allowed for more flexibility in design, such as the use of other structural forms to reduce mass or increase load carrying capacity. Because of the unique nature of both the SMA material and the complex interactions between the springs, designing Spring Tires for a specific application requires extensive effort. Historically, design decisions have relied on full-scale empirical testing; however, this is very expensive and time consuming, especially when multiple iterations are needed. Therefore, developing a large-scale, robust, and predictive numerical model entailing complex spring interactions and the shape memory material behavior within a tire construct is the first essential step towards a successful design program. The current work focuses on implementation of the user-defined Shape Memory Alloy (SMA) model, otherwise known as SMA-GVIPs, in the Finite Element analysis (FEA) program ABAQUS for large-scale simulations of the GRC-developed Spring Tires made of SMA. The novelty of this work lies in the thorough, detail-oriented, and computationally efficient finite element analysis of full-scale SMA tires. A well-thought material characterization plan followed by model validation and a systemic sensitivity study on SMA tires has never been reported in the previous literature. The main objective of this study is to help the team improve and optimize the structural design of the SMA tires through in-depth numerical analysis and sensitivity studies. Various design variables (wire diameter, coil diameter, pitch, bead angle, and number of springs) were varied to study their influence on the global load-displacement response of the tire construct. A detailed investigation of the three-dimensional stress states was also carried out to enhance our understanding of the local changes as the tire goes through global deformation. It was concluded that a robust numerical model with a good predictive capability, together with a thoughtfully crafted sensitivity study can result in improved design iterations required to reach a desired tire performance while, significantly reducing manufacturing, labor and testing expenses. A summary of the Finite Element (FE) model construction will be presented together with a description of the user-defined SMA model, characterization process, experimental results, model validation, and numerical sensitivity study results.

shape memory alloys↗

DOE OSTI2024

Carbon storage cost modeling for the offshore Gulf of Mexico

Groundbreaking for geologic carbon storage (GCS) projects in the offshore Gulf of Mexico is imminent, and there is great interest in utilizing this region for GCS projects. Offshore saline reservoirs provide a significant and accessible resource for GCS. However, conducting GCS in the offshore environment will pose distinct challenges pertaining to site selection, operations, infrastructure use, and monitoring compared to operating onshore that ultimately affect technoeconomic assessment of offshore GCS projects. Carbon storage and transport costs are critical to project developers looking to deploy carbon storage in the offshore environment. We present CO2_S_COM_Offshore, a model developed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) as a screening-level offshore saline GCS cost modeling tool. Based on NETL’s widely used CO2_S_COM cost model for onshore saline CS, CO2_S_COM_Offshore enables technoeconomic analysis of GCS in offshore areas. This model comprehensively incorporates multiple facets of offshore GCS projects, from regional evaluation and site selection to permitting, transport, operations, monitoring, site closure, and decommissioning. In general, the model can explore the cost implications for potential offshore GCS project(s) by enabling the user to change several project operational and financial attribute configurations. Key inputs include offshore storage formation options, CO2 injection rate and duration, infrastructure types, monitoring intensity, project financing, and post-injection site care duration. Supporting cost algorithms within CO2_S_COM_Offshore were compiled utilizing S&P Global’ s QUE$TORTM cost estimation software alongside a variety of open-source scientific literature. In addition to reviewing key model components, we discuss several sensitivity analyses, input variabilities, and results on analysis of break-even CO2 price required by a project based on different regulation/policy and operational scenarios for the offshore Gulf of Mexico. These results indicate the value of modeling offshore GCS specifically, and the potential of offshore GCS within a decarbonization value chain. Presented at the 41st USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, 3-6 November 2024, Baton Rouge, LA, United States.

Mark-Moser, Mackenzie K.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Inferring Land Surface Model Parameters for the Assimilation of Satellite-Based L-Band Brightness Temperature Observations into a Soil Moisture Analysis System

The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite mission provides global measurements of L-band brightness temperatures at horizontal and vertical polarization and a variety of incidence angles that are sensitive to moisture and temperature conditions in the top few centimeters of the soil. These L-band observations can therefore be assimilated into a land surface model to obtain surface and root zone soil moisture estimates. As part of the observation operator, such an assimilation system requires a radiative transfer model (RTM) that converts geophysical fields (including soil moisture and soil temperature) into modeled L-band brightness temperatures. At the global scale, the RTM parameters and the climatological soil moisture conditions are still poorly known. Using look-up tables from the literature to estimate the RTM parameters usually results in modeled L-band brightness temperatures that are strongly biased against the SMOS observations, with biases varying regionally and seasonally. Such biases must be addressed within the land data assimilation system. In this presentation, the estimation of the RTM parameters is discussed for the NASA GEOS-5 land data assimilation system, which is based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the Catchment land surface model. In the GEOS-5 land data assimilation system, soil moisture and brightness temperature biases are addressed in three stages. First, the global soil properties and soil hydraulic parameters that are used in the Catchment model were revised to minimize the bias in the modeled soil moisture, as verified against available in situ soil moisture measurements. Second, key parameters of the "tau-omega" RTM were calibrated prior to data assimilation using an objective function that minimizes the climatological differences between the modeled L-band brightness temperatures and the corresponding SMOS observations. Calibrated parameters include soil roughness parameters, vegetation structure parameters, and the single scattering albedo. After this climatological calibration, the modeling system can provide L-band brightness temperatures with a global mean absolute bias of less than 10K against SMOS observations, across multiple incidence angles and for horizontal and vertical polarization. Third, seasonal and regional variations in the residual biases are addressed by estimating the vegetation optical depth through state augmentation during the assimilation of the L-band brightness temperatures. This strategy, tested here with SMOS data, is part of the baseline approach for the Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture data product from the planned Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite mission.

Reichle, Rolf H.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Residential energy demand, emissions, and expenditures at regional and income-decile level for alternative futures

Income and its distribution profile are important determinants of residential energy demand and carry direct implications for human well-being and climate. We explore the sensitivity of residential energy systems to income growth and distribution across shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathways scenarios using a global, integrated, multisector dynamics model, Global Change Analysis Model, which tracks national/regional household energy services and fuel choice by income decile. Nation/region energy use patterns across deciles tend to converge over time with aggregate income growth, as higher-income consumers approach satiation levels in floorspace and energy services. However, in some regions, existing within-region inequalities in energy consumption persist over time due to slow income growth in lower income groups. Due to continued differences in fuel types, lower income groups will have higher exposure to household air pollution, despite lower contributions to greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that the share of income dedicated to energy is higher for lower deciles, with strong regional differences.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1982

Analysis of airfoil leading edge separation bubbles

A local inviscid-viscous interaction technique was developed for the analysis of low speed airfoil leading edge transitional separation bubbles. In this analysis an inverse boundary layer finite difference analysis is solved iteratively with a Cauchy integral representation of the inviscid flow which is assumed to be a linear perturbation to a known global viscous airfoil analysis. Favorable comparisons with data indicate the overall validity of the present localized interaction approach. In addition numerical tests were performed to test the sensitivity of the computed results to the mesh size, limits on the Cauchy integral, and the location of the transition region.

Carter, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Analysis of airfoil leading-edge separation bubbles

Vatsa, V. N.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Mangrove Canopy Height Globally Related to Precipitation and Cyclone Frequency

Mangrove wetlands are among the most productive and carbon-dense ecosystems in the world. Their structural attributes vary considerably across spatial scales, yielding large uncertainties in regional and global estimates of carbon stocks. Here, we present a global analysis of mangrove canopy height gradients and aboveground carbon stocks based on remotely sensed measurements and field data. Our study highlights that precipitation, temperature and cyclone frequency explain 74% of the global trends in maximum canopy height, with other geophysical factors influencing the observed variability at local and regional scales. We find the tallest mangrove forests in Gabon, equatorial Africa, where stands attain 62.8 m. The total global mangrove carbon stock (above- and belowground biomass, and soil) is estimated at 5.03 Pg, with a quarter of this value stored in Indonesia. Our analysis implies sensitivity of mangrove structure to climate change, and offers a baseline to monitor national and regional trends in mangrove carbon stocks.

Carbon cycle↗

DOE OSTI2021

An efficient method to identify uncertainties of WRF-Solar variables in forecasting solar irradiance using a tangent linear sensitivity analysis

Uncertainty in predicting solar energy resources introduces major challenges in power system management and necessitates the development of reliable probabilistic solar forecasts. As the first part of the development of probabilistic forecasts based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar), this study presents a tangent linear approach to identify input variables responsible for the largest uncertainties in predicting surface solar irradiance and clouds. A tangent linear analysis is capable of efficiently investigating sensitivities of output variables with respect to various input variables of WRF-Solar because this approach avoids the computational burden of perturbing the initial conditions of individual input variables. We develop tangent linear models (TLMs) for six WRF-Solar physics packages that control the formation and dissipation of clouds and solar radiation, and we evaluate the validity of TLMs using a linearity test. The tangent linear sensitivity analysis is conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations to consider realistic input conditions. A simple method is used to quantify the impact of the uncertainty of input variables on the output variables from the TLMs. The results demonstrate that uncertainties in the output variables that are the focus of this study—including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes—are highly sensitive to uncertainties in 14 input variables. This study indicates that the tangent linear method can identify key variables of physics modules in WRF-Solar that can be stochastically perturbed to generate ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improving North American Wildfire Prediction by Integrating a Machine-Learning Fire Model in a Land Surface Model

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 2.1. A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulated wildfire burned area over the CONUS during 2001-2020

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

Liu, Ye↗

NASA NTRS2022

Investigation of the Potential Saturation of Information from Global Navigation Satellite System Radio Occultation Observations with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

The potential impact of large numbers of Global Navigation Satellite System radio occultation (GNSS-RO) observations on numerical weather prediction is investigated using a global observing system simulation experiment (OSSE). The hybrid four-dimensional ensemble variational Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation system and Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model are used to ingest up to 100,000 GNSS-RO soundings per day in addition to the current suite of conventional and radiance data. Analysis quality, forecast skill, and forecast sensitivity to observation impact are examined with differing quantities of additional GNSS-RO profiles. It is found that saturation of information from additional RO soundings has not been reached with 100,000 soundings per day. There are some indications of suboptimal performance of the GSI in handling GNSS-RO observations particularly in the middle and lower tropospheric extratropics.

GNSS-RO↗