Fracture conductivity management to improve heat extraction in enhanced geothermal systems
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This paper presents a low-order aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) model for simulation of combined subsurface and above-surface energy systems. The model is included in the Modelica IBPSA Library, which is a free open-source library with basic models for building and district energy and control systems. The model uses a lumped-component method, in which the transient conductive-convective heat and mass transfer equation is radially discretized. To verify the accuracy of the model, we present an inter-model comparison from a simulation test suite. Results show that the Modelica ATES model is in good agreement, with a normalized mean bias error for yearly variation of aquifer temperatures of 1.6×10−2 and 9×10−5 at 1 m and 10 m distance from the well.
The central idea of the method used in the work is representing all the information we have using probability densities and then using inversion method to infer the A posteriori probability density of the model parameters we would like to know from all these information we have. This information includes forward model (the assumption we made on the problem and the theory we use for arrival time calculation), observations (arrival time), and A prior information on the model parameters (all other information we have on model parameters before the inversion).
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