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DOE OSTI2021

Forecasting Marine Sediment Properties with Geospatial Machine Learning

Using a combination of geospatial machine learning prediction and sediment thermodynamic/physical modeling, we have developed a novel software workflow to create probabilistic maps of geoacoustic and geomechanical sediment properties of the global seabed. This new technique for producing reliable estimates of seafloor properties can better support Naval operations relying on sonar performance and seabed strength, can constrain models of shallow tomographic structure important for nuclear treaty compliance monitoring/detection, and can provide constraints on the distribution and inventory of shallow methane gas and gas hydrate accumulations on the continental shelves.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nuclear Criticality Safety Assessment of Criticality Control Containers without Moderation Control at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) provides for safe, permanent disposal of government-owned transuranic (TRU) and TRU mixed wastes. Receipt and disposal of waste at the WIPP site began in March 1999. The Sandia report, Consideration of Nuclear Criticality When Disposing of Transuranic Waste at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, addressed potential nuclear criticality safety issues based on the projected inventory characteristics known at the time [1]. As designs for inventory, waste forms, and disposal packages have changed, new analyses have been performed, and updates have been made to address any potential effects to the WIPP safety basis. New analyses performed include Saylor 2017 [2] and Brickner 2019 [3], which address certain waste containers with specified loadings under post-closure conditions. Both examined several hypothetical scenarios and included analyses to bound (from a criticality potential standpoint) credible configurations that could occur at WIPP during the repository regulatory post-closure disposal time period for feature, event, and process (FEP) considerations—10,000 years. During this post-closure period at WIPP, the screening of FEPs is governed by the risk-based standards and implementing regulations of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) (i.e., 40 CFR 191 and 40 CFR 194, respectively) [4,5]. An FEP screening can be based on either a low-consequence or low-probability rationale. A low-probability rationale includes either (a) a qualitative rationale that the FEP is not credible or (b) a quantitative demonstration that the probability is less than 10-4 in 104 years. In this evaluation, a qualitative lowprobability rationale of not credible is used by demonstrating that bounding configurations of the waste are not critical. The demonstration of subcriticality is through quantitative calculations, but a probability of criticality is not evaluated. Rather, the rationale for this evaluation is that bounding configurations with an effective neutron multiplication factor (keff) well below the upper subcriticality limit (USL) make criticality incredible. Reference [2] documented a nuclear criticality assessment of the WIPP repository for disposal of dilute surplus plutonium materials using the Dilute and Dispose Approach and packaging in criticality control overpacks (CCOs). The CCO is the waste disposal container recently designed to allow for up to 380 fissile gram equivalent (FGE) 239 Pu per drum, which is a higher fissile loading than typical waste containers. The CCO consists of a criticality control container (CCC) positioned by upper and lower plywood spacers within a standard 55 gal drum. The CCC is used to establish a geometry control for fissile materials during transportation and WIPP emplacement operations. The current WIPP waste acceptance criteria for CCO payloads limit beryllium to less than or equal to 1% by weight of the waste contents and require the waste form to be non-machine compacted. Reference [2] considered two scenario progressions—room closure from salt creep, hereafter referred to as the reconfigured dry scenario, and flooding with brine, hereafter referred to as the reconfigured wet scenario. The subsequent drying out of the reconfigured wet scenarios was also considered. For all scenarios, subcriticality was maintained when 50 g of B 4 C (acting as a neutron absorber) per CCC was intermixed within the plutonium disposition waste form. The analysis used a waste form description that limits the amount of moderation that could be present within the waste form (i.e., it limits the amount of water and polyethylene that could be present based on planned processing conditions). This analysis to evaluate increased limits on the amount of moderation that could be present was performed as a companion to Reference [2] to address concerns associated with verifying moisture and/or plastic contents of waste materials following packaging of dilute surplus plutonium in the CCO. To that end, this analysis used the models and methods from Reference [2] to evaluate a more generic base waste form consisting of water and polyethylene that is more similar (and nearly identical) to the generic waste forms utilized in other models/analyses supporting the TRU Package Transporter Model II (TRUPACTII) safety analysis [6] (all are without moderation controls). The waste form in this analysis uses a base mixture of 75% water and 25% polyethylene, the total amount of which is varied to determine the optimum moderation to fissile material (H/Pu) ratio. The fissile loading is maintained at up to 380 FGE 239 Pu (modeled as PuO 2 ) per CCO with an additional 545 g of beryllium (to bound the 1% by weight contents restriction) and 50 g of B 4 C intermixed per CCO. The beryllium content (1% by weight) is based on the total allowed waste weight (this does not include packaging and container weights). Figures ES-1 and ES-2 display summary results, showing that with this model including 50 g of B 4 C per CCO, the system keff remains under 0.85 for all moderator amounts and provides a significant margin against post-closure criticality under postulated bounding conditions for compaction. Figure ES-1 compares an infinite model with a room model at the initial emplacement spacing and under full radial compaction. Full radial compaction places each CCC in direct contact and does not credit any anticipated spacing associated with current post-closure geomechanical modeling of the repository [7]. The effects of variations in the H/Pu ratio were evaluated by varying the amount of the water/polyethylene component of the waste model, with fissile loading maintained at 380 239 Pu FGE. Similarly, Figure ES-2 illustrates how various amounts of B 4 C per CCO influence k eff at different radial compactions, all at the H/Pu ratio of 200 (in the room array model). Therefore, while the results from Saylor 2017 [2] modeled more realistic process limits associated with packaging of dilute surplus plutonium, this analysis demonstrates that limits on moderation (plastic and water content) are not necessary to ensure subcriticality in the WIPP repository, provided the requisite B 4 C absorber is present.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

SECARB Semi-Annual Field Review Reports - Early Test

The Southern States Energy Board (SSEB) managed the overall Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (SECARB) Phase III project and The Bureau of Economic Geology (BEG), at the University of Texas at Austin, managed all activities associated with the Early Test field site near Cranfield, Mississippi (the Early Test or Cranfield Project). BEG was assisted in the management of site activities by Sandia Technologies (Sandia). BEG and Sandia implemented reporting procedures that included monthly and quarterly technical progress reports, as well as periodic reporting on key field activities. Subsequent sections of this report catalog the field activities and are organized in a semiannual chronology. The Cranfield Project was located approximately 12 miles east of Natchez, Mississippi. Denbury Onshore, LLC, began operating a commercial CO 2 flood of the field (using the subsurface injection of CO 2 for EOR) in June 2008. Carbon dioxide from the Jackson Dome, a natural source near Jackson, Mississippi, was delivered to the Cranfield oilfield via pipeline. Beginning in October 2008, the SECARB Early Test team characterized the surface and subsurface of the Cranfield site. During the field test CO 2 was injected into the lower Tuscaloosa Formation, a regionally extensive saline formation with the potential to hold millions of tons of CO 2 emissions. By January 2015, the team injected more than 11 million metric tons of CO 2 and monitored a total stored CO 2 mass of 5,326,975 metric tons. SECARB’s study operations occurred in four integrated research program areas within Cranfield field: (1) the High Volume Injection Test area (HiVIT); (2) the Detailed Area of Study (DAS); (3) the Geomechanical area; and (4) the near-surface observatory, also called the “P-site.” Carbon dioxide injection activities were conducted at the HiVIT and the DAS. Figure 1.1-1 provides a depiction of the DAS.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2021

SECARB Regional Project Assessment

The SECARB Cranfield Early Test Project was designed to safely demonstrate large-scale, long-term CO 2 injection and storage in a CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery (EOR) operation and associated saline reservoir. Storage during EOR operations has the potential to offset commercial costs, holding a significant promise for future large-scale deployment in the southeastern United States. Denbury Onshore LLC began CO 2 -EOR operations in July 2008 at the Cranfield oilfield located east of Natchez, Mississippi (Figure 1). The location offered an ideal setting to investigate storage monitoring at a commercial CO 2 -EOR operation. The field team, led by the Gulf Coast Carbon Center of the Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas at Austin, deployed the largest suite of monitoring, verification, accounting (MVA) technologies to collect data to assess long-term CO 2 utilization and storage. The CO 2 injection interval is within the 3,000-meter-deep fluvial lower Tuscaloosa Formation, a large and regionally extensive saline reservoir, at a broad four-way structural closure that defines the Cranfield oilfield. Tests were conducted in the oil-producing area as well as in the non-oil-producing brine aquifer. The CO 2 used during EOR operation was transported via pipeline from the Jackson Dome, a natural source of CO 2 . The study focused on four integrated research areas: (1) the High-Volume Injection Test area (HiVIT); (2) the Detailed Area of Study (DAS); (3) the Geomechanical area; and (4) the near-surface observatory, also called the “P-site.” CO 2 injection occurred at the HiVIT and the DAS (Figure 2 and Figure 3). The DAS was located down-dip of the oil-water interface of the Cranfield oilfield. The well layout included one injection well and two down-dip observation wells. The team was the first of the regional partnerships to monitor more than 1 million metric tons of CO 2 . At the end of the project, the team monitored more than 11 million metric tons of CO 2 injected and 5 million metric tons of CO 2 stored. The Cranfield Project was the fifth project worldwide, and the first such project in the United States, to reach this CO 2 injection volume while being monitored to demonstrate storage effectiveness.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2020

Information Products & Communication Materials for SSEB, SGA, SLC and Partners [Slides]

Contents include the following: 1) Southeastern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (SECARB)–Southern States Energy Board's 48th Annual Meeting, August 8, 2008; 2) Southern States Energy Board Carbon Management Program SSEB Associate Members Meeting, August 21, 2009; 3) Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) Demonstration Project, August 21, 2009; 4) Clean Energy in the Southern Region, August 27, 2010; 5) Carbon Management–Southern Leadership of a Regional Partnership, October 17, 2011; 6) Southeastern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership "Knowledge Sharing", August 10, 2012; 7) Southeastern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership; 8) Site Visit by Southern Legislative Group, July 30, 2013; 9) SECARB Awards Anthropogenic Test, March 4, 2014; 10) Southern Company/MHI Ltd. 500 TPD CCS Demonstration; 11) SECARB Anthropogenic Test Project Assessment, March 4-5, 2014; 12) Advanced Monitoring Technologies SECARB Phase III CO 2 Storage Citronell, Alabama, March 4, 2014; 13) Geomechanics at Cranfield, March 5, 2014; 14) Gulf Coast Carbon Center Near-Surface Update, March 4-5, 2014; 15) Monitoring Design Best Practices, March 5, 2014; 16) Special Projects–Carbon Management Program, 2015; 17) Special Projects, November 2-3, 2016; 18) Carbon Management Program Carbon Capture & Storage Projects, September 24, 2017; 19) Remarks Before the 58th Annual Meeting of the Executive Committee, September 16, 2018; 20) Annual Business Session, September 24, 2019; and 21) Recent Activities & 2019-2020 Elections Insights, February 7, 2020.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2021

Geothermal Play-Fairway Analysis of Washington State Prospects: Final Report

The Washington State Geothermal Play-Fairway Analysis overcomes the exploration challenges posed by dense vegetation, glacial deposits, and extreme precipitation. The geothermal play-fairways we target are locations where heat, permeability, and saturated porosity are present in sufficient volume to provide adequate heat exchange at depths accessible by modern drilling technology. The three study areas lie along the Cascade Range magmatic arc and are near Mount Baker, Mount St. Helens, and the Wind River Valley. The seven-year project is divided into three phases. In Phase 1 we build on a previous statewide assessment of geothermal resources and develop an initial modeling approach. The results are a series of favorability, uncertainty, and risk maps for three targeted study areas. Based on these initial results, we collect new geologic and geophysical data to further refine our modeling and reduce exploration uncertainty in Phase 2. We improve the modeling method to handle the new data and update the favorability, uncertainty, and risk maps. We also update the conceptual geothermal resource models. In Phase 3 we validate our modeling approach by drilling two temperature-gradient holes and collecting and analyzing core, image logs, and new geochemistry. Our modeling approach improves on an earlier statewide method through a more-rigorous and detailed assessment of heat and permeability. Permeability potential is assessed through geomechanical modeling of the deformation that can generate and maintain reservoir porosity and permeability. Metrics to inform heat potential include temperature-gradient wells, which are sparse in Washington; proximity of Quaternary volcanic vents and young intrusive rock; spring temperature; and reservoir temperature inferred from geothermometry. We weight the individual components using an expert-guided approach known as the Analytical Hierarchy Process. During Phase 2 we also develop a fluid-filled fracture model, and an infrastructure model that helps to delineate areas which are more favorable for geothermal development based on proximity to transmission lines, elevation, land ownership and use restrictions, and availability of process water. New geologic and geophysical data is collected during Phase 2 in each of our three main study areas. At Mount Baker and north of Mount St. Helens we conduct 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping and lidar analysis to better constrain the location and character of surface faults; detailed mapping in the Wind River Valley was completed just prior to the start of this project. Ages of intrusive rocks are determined with 40 Ar/ 39 Ar geochronology, though all of our samples are Miocene or older. We collect ground based gravity observations (a total of 1,580 new stations) in all of our study areas and ground-based magnetic lines (a total of 93 km) at Mount Baker. These data are combined with existing gravity and aeromagnetic data and used to constrain fault locations and geometry. Two to three cross sections are constructed at each study area using the mapped surface geology and forward-modeling of the gravity and magnetic data; these cross sections form the basis for our updated conceptual models. We collect magnetotelluric surveys at Mount Baker and Mount St. Helens and these data are inverted to form a resistivity model from the surface to about 10 km depth; each model shows conductive zones that can be interpreted as upwelling geothermal fluids. At Mount St. Helens we deploy a passive seismic array and use the newly detected events to refine the location of the Saint Helens seismic zone. We also employ ambient-noise tomography to develop a detailed seismic-velocity model for the study area and use this model to help constrain our cross sections and conceptual model. Based on the new data collected during Phase 2—and our updated models—we develop a campaign of temperature-gradient holes and core analysis to validate our modeling in Phase 3. Drill hole MB76-31 is located near Little Park Creek, 11 km west-southwest of the summit of Mount Baker, and is 1,471 ft deep. About 410 ft of core from the lower portion of the hole—and image logs from ~175 ft below ground surface to the bottom—are collected and analyzed. Water samples are collected and processed for geothermometry. Drill hole MSH17-24 is located along upper Schultz Creek, 16 km north-northeast of Mount St. Helens and has core from 470 ft to the bottom at 1,053 ft. We did not collect image logs due to borehole stability concerns, but water samples are collected and analyzed for geothermometry. Repeat temperature-gradient measurements are made at both sites and thermal conductivity is measured from core samples. At MB76-31, the equilibrated temperature gradient of 64°C/km and calculated heat flow of 141–159 mW/m 2 is more than twice the regional average. Detailed mapping and analysis of the core, coupled with correlation to the image logs, indicates a history of permeability generation consistent with our predictions of high permeability. Because the site has high favorability in the Phase 2 model, we consider the results a positive validation of the modeling. At site MSH17-24, the equilibrated temperature gradient of ~15°C/km and calculated heat flow of 41–43 mW/m 2 are similar to regional. Geochemical analysis of the water samples indicates a meteoric source without any geothermal component. Detailed outcrop-based mapping of fault exposures near the drill site and analysis of image logs from nearby boreholes indicates a history of permeability generation consistent with our predictions. Because the site has low favorability in the Phase 2 model, we consider the results a positive validation of the modeling. Together, the two sites provide a reasonably positive validation of the Phase 2 modeling and should encourage future use of this modeling approach.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Conasauga Shale Research Consortium (CSRC) (Final Report)

The objective of the Conasauga Shale Research Consortium (CSRC) project was to establish a field laboratory and utilize a horizontal well of opportunity to conduct a scientific study designed to advance the understanding of the petrophysical and geomechanical properties of the emerging Rogersville Shale unconventional oil and gas play. Unfortunately, just as the research program was beginning, our industry partner lost a primary investor in the horizontal well which was intended to be the ‘well of opportunity’ for the project. In a negotiated restructuring of the project by DOE-NETL and the Awardee consortium, additional time for Budget Period 1 was granted in the hopes that the industry partner could acquire additional investments to allow for the drilling of the horizontal well. This search was ultimately unsuccessful, and the consortium was unable to pass the negotiated Go/No-go Decision Point #1, which resulted in the termination of the project on July 31, 2021.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2022

Wabash CarbonSAFE. Geologic Analysis of the Potosi Dolomite Reservoir Interval and Potential Confining Units, at the Wabash #1 Well, Vigo Co., Indiana, Subtask 7.2, Technical Report

The Wabash CarbonSAFE project drilled the Wabash #1 stratigraphic test well (ID# 168045) at the Wabash Valley Resources (WVR) IGCC facility in Vigo County, Indiana, to evaluate the feasibility of commercial-scale CO 2 storage near the site. The Mt. Simon Sandstone was the initial target for storage evaluation and was found to have generally poor reservoir qualities in the Wabash #1 well. Focus was then placed on the secondary target, the Potosi Dolomite. For storage and containment evaluation an extensive suite of geophysical logs was collected throughout the borehole, and whole cores were obtained from the Mt. Simon Sandstone, Eau Claire Formation, and Maquoketa Group. The Maquoketa Group is identified as a regionally extensive secondary sealing interval above the Mt. Simon Sandstone and as a primary seal for the Potosi Dolomite storage complex. Due to concerns over potential lost circulation zones in the Potosi Dolomite during drilling, no core samples or Formation Micro Imager (FMI) logs were acquired in the Potosi Dolomite. However, cased hole well testing was performed over a 20 feet (6 m) interval within the Potosi Dolomite during which a fluid swab sample was obtained. Approximately 35 miles of 2D seismic information was acquired in the project area near Wabash #1 to aid in reservoir and caprock characterization. The highly porous and permeable zones in the Potosi Dolomite and lower Oneota Dolomite observed within the Wabash #1 well are, for the purpose of this report, considered the same reservoir package and referred to as the Potosi reservoir interval. This report presents a regional depositional context for the Potosi reservoir interval, the overlying confining zones in the Knox Group, and Maquoketa Group primary seal. This context is developed through detailed information obtained from the Wabash #1 well such as lithologic data collected from cuttings and core, geophysical logging, geomechanical analysis of core samples, and well testing and fluid sampling within the Potosi reservoir interval. Information discussed in this report was compiled as a basis for the development of static and dynamic geologic models of the Potosi Dolomite storage complex. The static and dynamic modeling of CO 2 injection in the Potosi reservoir interval are discussed in a separate report (Dessenberger et al., 2022) under the Wabash CarbonSAFE project.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrating Machine Learning into a Methodology for Early Detection of Wellbore Failure [Slides]

Approximately 93% of US total energy supply is dependent on wellbores in some form. The industry will drill more wells in next ten years than in the last 100 years (King, 2014). Global well population is around 1.8 million of which approximately 35% has some signs of leakage (i.e. sustained casing pressure). Around 5% of offshore oil and gas wells “fail” early, more with age and most with maturity. 8.9% of “shale gas” wells in the Marcellus play have experienced failure (120 out of 1,346 wells drilled in 2012) (Ingraffea et al., 2014). Current methods for identifying wells that are at highest priority for increased monitoring and/or at highest risk for failure consists of “hand” analysis of multi-arm caliper (MAC) well logging data and geomechanical models. Machine learning (ML) methods are of interest to explore feasibility for increasing analysis efficiency and/or enhanced detection of precursors to failure (e.g. deformations). MAC datasets used to train ML algorithms and preliminary tests were run for “predicting” casing collar locations and performed above 90% in classification and identifying of casing collar locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrating Machine Learning into a Methodology for Early Detection of Wellbore Failure [Slides]

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Salt International Collaborations (FY22 Update)

This report summarizes the international collaborations conducted by Sandia funded by the US Department of Energy Office (DOE) of Nuclear Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Science & Technology (SFWST) as part of the Sandia National Laboratories Salt R&D and Salt International work packages. This report satisfies the level-three milestone M3SF-22SN010303063. Several stand-alone sections make up this summary report, each completed by the participants. The sections discuss international collaborations on geomechanical benchmarking exercises (WEIMOS), granular salt reconsolidation (KOMPASS), engineered barriers (RANGERS), numerical model comparison (DECOVALEX) and an NEA Salt Club working group on the development of scenarios as part of the performance assessment development process. Finally, we summarize events related to the US/German Workshop on Repository Research, Design and Operations. The work summarized in this annual update has occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, and little international or domestic travel has occurred. Most of the collaborations have been conducted via email or as virtual meetings, but a slow return to travel and in-person meetings has begun.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Newly acquired core enhances geologic understanding of the northern Paradox Basin Cane Creek play, southeastern Utah

The Cane Creek interval is an emerging unconventional heterolithic play within the Pennsylvanian Paradox Formation of the northern Paradox Basin, southeastern Utah. Structural controls (basement uplifts, salt movement, faults, fractures) likely control production from the Cane Creek, where total oil production of ~10 MMBO is just a fraction of current estimates of the undiscovered resource (up to 1.2 BBOE). Oil production has been most successful from unstimulated horizontal wells in the Cane Creek Unit in the central play area, whereas areas to the north (Greentown and Gunnison Valley) have to date proven to be largely unproductive from vertical and horizontal wells drilled without the benefit of 3D seismic or the deployment of modern hydraulic fracturing techniques. However, the limited historical drilling has shown significant promise (e.g., significant shows). The lack of core data in the northern part of the play has impeded thorough assessment of reservoir quality, character, and lithological facies heterogeneity. The Cane Creek is informally divided into three distinct zones. The upper A and basal C zones are composed of fabric destructive and wavy bedded anhydrite, dolomitic mudstone, and organic-rich algal laminated mudstones (source rock). The middle B zone is generally wave rippled and burrowed, low-permeability sandstone-siltstone (reservoir) with subordinate displacive anhydrite. Recent potash cores collected from the Salt Valley anticline near Crescent Junction, Utah (but east of the main play area), show thicker reservoir sandstone/siltstone packages (~40 ft) in the B zone, and parts of the C zone, in the northern part of the Paradox Basin in comparison to the central (~35 ft) and southern (~30 ft) areas. Source rock analyses from northern core/cuttings also indicate that it is well positioned within the oil window (VRo ~0.8), with thin organic-rich mudstone beds containing up to 20 wt% TOC. Because the siliciclastic reservoir rocks have low permeabilities (0.009–0.202 mD) and variable porosities (6–17%) due to dolomite-anhydrite cement, naturally occurring and possibly stimulated fractures may be essential for hydrocarbon recovery. To better understand the northern part of the Cane Creek play, a new core was obtained from the research stratigraphic well State 16-2 (January 2021). Details from this new core will help characterize reservoir quality via core analyses, petrography, fracture orientations, geomechanics, and correlation of facies and depositional trends. Additionally, an evaluation of matrix porosity/permeability will be conducted to determine its contribution to productivity.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2023

2023 Annual Report of Available Drawdowns for Each Oil Storage Cavern in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

DOE maintains an up-to-date documentation of the number of available full drawdowns of each of the caverns at the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This information is important for assessing the SPR’s ability to deliver oil to domestic oil companies expeditiously if national or world events dictate a rapid sale and deployment of the oil reserves. Sandia was directed to develop and implement a process to continuously assess and report the evolution of drawdown capacity, the subject of this report. This report covers impacts on drawdown availability due to SPR operations during Calendar Year 2022. A cavern has an available drawdown if, after that drawdown, the long-term stability of the cavern, the cavern field, or the oil quality are not compromised. Thus, determining the number of available drawdowns requires the consideration of several factors regarding cavern and wellbore integrity and stability, including stress states caused by cavern geometry and operations, salt damage caused by dilatant and tensile stresses, the effect of enhanced creep on wellbore integrity, and the sympathetic stress effect of operations on neighboring caverns. Finite-element geomechanical models have been used to determine the stress states in the pillars following successive drawdowns. By computing the tensile and dilatant stresses in the salt, areas of potential structural instability can be identified that may represent red flags for additional drawdowns. These analyses have found that many caverns will maintain structural integrity even when grown via drawdowns to dimensions resulting in a pillar-to-diameter ratio of less than 1.0. The analyses have also confirmed that certain caverns should only be completely drawn down one time. As the SPR caverns are utilized and partial drawdowns are performed to remove oil from the caverns (e.g., for oil sales, purchases, or exchanges authorized by the Congress or the President), the changes to the cavern caused by these procedures must be tracked and accounted for so that an ongoing assessment of the cavern’s drawdown capacity may be continued. A methodology for assessing and tracking the available drawdowns for each cavern is reiterated. This report is the latest in a series of annual reports, and it includes the baseline available drawdowns for each cavern, and the most recent assessment of the evolution of drawdown expenditures. A total of 222 million barrels of oil were released in calendar-year 2022. A nearly-equal amount of raw water was injected, resulting in an estimated 34 million barrels of cavern leaching. Twenty caverns have now expended a full drawdown. Cavern BC 18 has expended all its baseline available drawdowns, and has no drawdowns remaining. Cavern BM 103 has expended one of its two baseline drawdowns, and is now a single-drawdown cavern. All other caverns with an expenditure went from at-least-5 to at-least-4 remaining drawdowns.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2022

Efficient Multi-Scale, Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical Numerical Model for Simulation of Long-Term Stability of Rooms for Nuclear Waste Disposal

This project demonstrated the feasibility of developing a numerical modeling tool that provides an efficient and unique approach to analyze the geomechanical performance of a deep geological repository (DGR) for high-level nuclear waste. The numerical modeling tool is physics-based and models the thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes during the required time (up to one million years) for a DGR. The unique capability of the developed code is explicit representation of fracturing and a discrete fracture network (DFN) in the model that includes the entire repository layout for simulated time of one million years. Therefore, it can potentially address one of the challenges of analysis of a DGR, which is efficient numerical simulation of a multi-scale, physics-based models.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

HFTS-1 (Final Report)

Despite the long history of hydraulic fracturing, the optimal number of fracturing stages during multi-stage fracture stimulation in horizontal wells can be a complex subject. In addition to the increased expense of multistage fracturing in horizontal wells, increasing the number of fracturing stages does not always correlate with a commensurate increase in production. The problem is the application of a uniform fracture stimulation design to all stages with no consideration for geological variations along the wellbore. The result is an inefficient use and costly waste of energy and water. Optimization of the fracturing process requires an understanding of the cause-and-effect relationship between fracturing parameters and local geological properties at a given location along the wellbore. Realizing that the generalized rock mechanics theories and hypotheses are not truly applicable to fractured and laminated shales, quantifiable impacts of a shale’s geomechanical and depositional features are a prerequisite for design and implementation of optimized hydraulic fractures. The overarching goal of this project is to understand and define the relationships of shale geology and fracture dynamics using detailed field data that includes coring of the fracture domain. Finally, resource recovery from shale formations is estimated to be less than fifteen percent. Research proposed in this project will establish the foundations for investigating enhanced recovery techniques for increased resource recovery in existing fracture treated wells. Natural gas as an EOR fluid is in the initial stages of being used broadly in the oil and gas industry and as such, many aspects of the process need to be researched and addressed prior to widespread acceptance. In addition, re-fracturing techniques, particularly using cemented liners also need to be further investigated. This project explores several of these EOR techniques in greater detail, not just at the theoretical level, but through actual field test sites. This report delves into the research program, identified tasks, several studies, observations, results, and conclusions under the Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site (HFTS) project. This test project is subdivided into three distinct phases and each phase is discussed in detail under separate sections. The original test site for Phase 1 as well as the Phase 2 site are in Midland Basin in Texas and operated by Laredo Petroleum. In the first two phases, the program targeted the Wolfcamp formation in Midland Basin. Phase 3 of the study targeted the EagleFord play in South Texas with Devon Energy as the operator. Significant conclusions from this study include: 1) lateral and vertical fracture growth mapping as well as proppant transport behavior, 2) Use of field gas and its applicability for huff n puff EOR injection in the Midland Basin, 3) Development and validation of proppant log, both at core scale as well as in-fill well implementation by analyzing drilling mud return samples, 4) Applicability of liner refracturing including best practices for enhanced unit level productivity. This report will detail all these studies as well as technical results and conclusions from said studies. These include general subsurface characterization work, completion designs as implemented, studies looking at fracture geometry, high resolution microseismic study, advanced crosswell strain mapping studies including drainage characterization, core characterization results, proppant analysis (core and observation wells), geochemistry, etc. to name a few.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2023

Status of Multiphysics Modeling of Critical DPCs in a Geological Repository

A summary of previous work focused on the first two scenarios is presented as an established workflow. These canisters could reach an equilibrium at a low quasi–steady-state power level that could be sustained for thousands of years. The majority of this report describes an effort to expand the initial methodology to include the scenario in which a DPC has enough excess reactivity to boil the water inside the canister. This scenario involves a variety of tools and modeling approaches to capture the two-phase behavior, including RELAP5-3D, STAR-CCM+, and TRACE. Efforts using the high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics results to verify the accuracy of RELAP5-3D and TRACE for boiling DPCs are also presented. A new modeling strategy using TRACE appears to be the most promising approach for expanding the analysis of critical DPCs beyond the subcooled scenarios. Finally, this report describes ongoing work investigating the fourth scenario, in which a critical DPC is sealed in saturated bentonite. The primary goal in this research is to understand the power output and associated pressure increase to inform geomechanics simulations that could predict the impact on a geological repository.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Constraining induced seismicity hazard on the Neck of the Desert fault for the proposed Iron Mountain, Utah carbon sequestration project

As significantly more focus is placed on carbon sequestration as a means to help mitigate the progression of climate change, the need to adequately characterize an injection target for its induced seismicity potential becomes more apparent. In the Iron Mountain project in Southern Utah, a single fault is identified in the Neck of the Desert near Iron Mountain. The dip of the fault is unknown, and the geomechanical stability of the fault (i.e., distribution of Coulomb failure functions (CFFs)) is highly dependent upon the dip. For some dips, such as 15 degrees, the hazard from injection is low. For other dips, such as 75 degrees, the hazard is high. Another key consideration is the depth of penetration of the fault. Should the fault not penetrate the stress and pressure perturbed region from injection, it will not be induced to fail. Thus, understanding the dip and the depth of penetration of the fault will greatly improve our understanding of the likelihood of inducing an earthquake.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

SMART Deliverable 6.1.2a: Application of the ORION tool to the IBDP Carbon Storage Site

Forecasting and managing potential induced seismic activity is one of the challenges facing commercialscale geologic carbon sequestration (GCS), as well as other geologic energy extraction and byproduct disposal technologies. Historically, the process to develop robust, science-based forecasts of induced seismicity has required an integrated effort from experts in seismology, geomechanics, and reservoir engineering to manage data, develop and evaluate models of subsurface processes, and to calibrate and interpret the results from a range of models to understand site behavior relative to prescribed standards and in the context of uncertainty in geologic characterization data, forecasting models, and operational scenario uncertainty. The Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity (ORION) toolkit is an open-source, observation-based forecasting toolkit that is being co-developed by two U.S. DOE-funded initiatives: the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) and the Scienceinformed Machine Learning for Accelerating Real Time Decisions in Subsurface Applications (SMART) Initiative. ORION is designed to provide functionality to support decision making about seismic hazard analysis and risk management for GCS stakeholders ranging from the public to site operators to expert seismologists. The tool, which is written as open-source code in the Python programming language, is composed of a desktop graphical user interface (GUI) and an underlying forecasting engine. The forecasting engine uses available reservoir properties, well and fluid injection scenario details, and observed seismic catalog data as inputs to produce a set of temporal and spatio-temporal seismic forecasts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗