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At least 235 records · Page 13

The revised FLORIDyn model: implementation of heterogeneous flow and the Gaussian wake

In this paper, a new version of the FLOw Redirection and Induction Dynamics (FLORIDyn) model is presented. The new model uses the three-dimensional parametric Gaussian FLORIS model and can provide dynamic wind farm simulations at a low computational cost under heterogeneous and changing wind conditions. Both FLORIS and FLORIDyn are parametric models which can be used to simulate wind farms, evaluate controller performance and can serve as a control-oriented model. One central element in which they differ is in their representation of flow dynamics: FLORIS neglects these and provides a computationally very cheap approximation of the mean wind farm flow. FLORIDyn defines a framework which utilizes this low computational cost of FLORIS to simulate basic wake dynamics. This is achieved by creating so-called observation points (OPs) at each time step at the rotor plane which inherit the turbine state. In this work, we develop the initial FLORIDyn framework further considering multiple aspects. The underlying FLORIS wake model is replaced by a Gaussian wake model. The distribution and characteristics of the OPs are adapted to account for the new parametric model but also to take complex flow conditions into account. To achieve this, a mathematical approach is developed to combine the parametric model and the changing, heterogeneous world conditions and link them with each OP. We also present a computationally lightweight wind field model to allow for a simulation environment in which heterogeneous flow conditions are possible. FLORIDyn is compared to Simulator for Offshore Wind Farm Applications (SOWFA) simulations in three- and nine-turbine cases under static and changing environmental conditions. The results show a good agreement with the timing of the impact of upstream state changes on downstream turbines. They also show a good agreement in terms of how wakes are displaced by wind direction changes and when the resulting velocity deficit is experienced by downstream turbines. A good fit of the mean generated power is ensured by the underlying FLORIS model. In the three-turbine case, FLORIDyn simulates 4 s simulation time in 24.49 ms computational time. The resulting new FLORIDyn model proves to be a computationally attractive and capable tool for model-based dynamic wind farm control.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Class of Sparse Johnson–Lindenstrauss Transforms and Analysis of their Extreme Singular Values

The Johnson–Lindenstrauss (JL) lemma is a powerful tool for dimensionality reduction in modern algorithm design. The lemma states that any set of high-dimensional points in a Euclidean space can be projected into lower dimensions while approximately preserving pairwise Euclidean distances. Random matrices satisfying this lemma are called JL transforms (JLTs). Inspired by existing $s$-hashing JLTs with exactly $s$ nonzero elements on each column, the present work introduces an ensemble of sparse matrices encompassing so-called $s$-hashing-like matrices whose expected number of nonzero elements on each column is $s$. The independence of the sub-Gaussian entries of these matrices and the knowledge of their exact distribution play an important role in their analyses. Using properties of independent sub-Gaussian random variables, these matrices are demonstrated to be JLTs, and their smallest nontrivial singular values and largest singular values are estimated nonasymptotically using a technique from geometric functional analysis. As the dimensions of the matrix grow to infinity, these singular values are proved to converge almost surely to fixed quantities (by using the universal Bai–Yin law) and in distribution to the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble Tracy–Widom law after proper rescalings. Understanding the behaviors of extreme singular values is important in general because they are often used to define a measure of stability of matrix algorithms. For example, JLTs were recently used in derivative-free optimization algorithmic frameworks to select random subspaces in which are constructed random models or poll directions to achieve scalability, and hence estimating their smallest singular value in particular helps determine the dimension of these subspaces.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning for physics-based models

This paper addresses the issue of overfitting while calibrating unknown parameters of over-parameterized physics-based models with noisy and incomplete observations. Here, a semi-analytical Bayesian framework of nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning (NSBL) is proposed to identify sparsity among model parameters during Bayesian inversion. NSBL offers significant advantages over machine learning algorithm of sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) for physics-based models, such as 1) the likelihood function or the posterior parameter distribution is not required to be Gaussian, and 2) prior parameter knowledge is incorporated into sparse learning (i.e. not all parameters are treated as questionable). NSBL employs the concept of automatic relevance determination (ARD) to facilitate sparsity among questionable parameters through parameterized prior distributions. The analytical tractability of NSBL is enabled by employing Gaussian ARD priors and by building a Gaussian mixture-model approximation of the posterior parameter distribution that excludes the contribution of ARD priors. Subsequently, type-II maximum likelihood is executed using Newton's method whereby the evidence and its gradient and Hessian information are computed in a semi-analytical fashion. We show numerically and analytically that SBL is a special case of NSBL for linear regression models. Subsequently, a linear regression example involving multimodality in both parameter posterior pdf and model evidence is considered to demonstrate the performance of NSBL in cases where SBL is inapplicable. Next, NSBL is applied to identify sparsity among the damping coefficients of a mass-spring-damper model of a shear building frame. These numerical studies demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of NSBL in alleviating overfitting during Bayesian inversion of nonlinear physics-based models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Mass-asymmetric fission of 205,207,209 Bi at energies close to the fission barrier using proton bombardment of 204,206,208 Pb

Background: Recent observation of mass-asymmetric fission in neutron-deficient Hg and Pt nuclei has reignited interest in fission fragment mass distributions close to Pb. Investigations at energies close to the fission barrier, where mass-asymmetric fission is expected to be most obvious and the sensitivity to shell effects is maximized, are limited in this mass region. Purpose: To measure fission mass distributions for 205,207,209 Bi nuclei at the lowest possible excitation energies to determine how the mass distributions change with excitation energy and the neutron number of the compound nucleus. Method: Proton beams bombarding targets of 204,206,208 Pb were used to study the fission of 205,207,209 Bi at energies from just above to 10 MeV above their fission barriers. Fission fragments were measured using the CUBE fission spectrometer. Fission fragment mass distributions were determined using a newly developed time difference analysis method. Mass distributions were characterized by triple-Gaussian fits to determine the systematic trends across each isotope with excitation energy. Results: Measured mass distributions of all three Bi isotopes exhibit a component of mass-asymmetric fission at all energies studied. The probability of mass-asymmetric fission decreases significantly with increasing excitation energy, from ≈70 to ≈40% over a 10-MeV range. Comparisons between the three Bi isotopes hint at an increase in the mass-symmetric fission yield with increasing neutron number, which could be due to a decrease in the difference between the symmetric and asymmetric fission barriers. The centroids of the mass-asymmetric peaks suggest that several deformed shell gaps in the fission fragments could be contributing to the presence of the mass-asymmetric fission mode with Z light ≃ 38, Z heavy ≃ 45, and N light ≃ 56 all present in the fission fragments. Conclusions: Measurements of fission mass distributions at the lowest possible excitation energies above the fission barrier provide an excellent platform to investigate the origins of the mass-asymmetric fission mode. Finally, further systematic measurements at these energies offer an opportunity to rigorously test new models of fission in this mass region.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Robust neural network-enhanced estimation of local primordial non-Gaussianity

When applied to the nonlinear matter distribution of the universe, neural networks have been shown to be very statistically sensitive probes of cosmological parameters, such as the linear perturbation amplitude σ 8 . However, when used as a “black box,” neural networks are not robust to baryonic uncertainty. We propose a robust architecture for constraining primordial non-Gaussianity f NL , by training a neural network to locally estimate σ 8 , and correlating these local estimates with the large-scale density field. We apply our method to N-body simulations, and show that σ⁡(f NL ) is 3.5 times better than the constraint obtained from a standard halo-based approach. Finally, we show that our method has the same robustness property as large-scale halo bias: baryonic physics can change the normalization of the estimated f NL , but cannot change whether f NL is detected.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Statistical Behavior of Low-Amplitude Power System Point-on-Wave Measurements

The power grid is undergoing massive changes to ensure resiliency and reliability in a more decentralized world. Distributed energy resources are becoming a prominent source of generation, potentially leading to a lack of centralized generation sources. Due to these new behaviors and system topologies, it is important to install measurement devices that are 1) accurate and 2) self-aware of their measurement quality. In this paper, a residential-scale microgrid is used to generate voltage and current waveforms, captured by Verivolt and National Instruments measurement equipment. A least-squares approach is used to separate the “clean” signals from the noise. Finally, Gaussian mixture modeling is used to approximate noise distributions, and it is shown these higher-order distribution estimates are a better fit to voltage and current noise profiles than single-mode Gaussian estimates.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Polarization-agnostic continuous-variable quantum key distribution

Here, we introduce a polarization-agnostic method for Gaussian-modulated coherent-state (GCMS) continuous-variable quantum key distribution (CVQKD). Due to the random and continuous nature of the GCMS protocol, Alice, the transmitter, can encode two distinct quadratures in each of two orthogonal polarization modes, such that Bob, the receiver, measures valid GCMS quadratures in a single polarization mode even when polarization changes occur during transmission. This method does not require polarization correction in the optical domain, does not require monitoring both polarization modes, reduces loss by eliminating optical components, and avoids the noise injected by polarization correction algorithms.

Williams, Brian P. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗

Absorptive Weak Plume Detection on Gaussian and Non-Gaussian Background Clutter

For additive signals on Gaussian clutter, the optimal detector is a linear matched filter that is adapted to the known signal and the covariance of the background. This adaptive matched filter is widely used for gas-phase plume detection, even though the effect of the plume on the background is not strictly additive. Here, a derivation of the matched filter for a strictly absorptive plume produces, in the weak plume limit, a quadratic filter. This quadratic matched filter is extended in two ways: an elliptically-contoured multivariate t distribution is used to generalize the Gaussian background clutter, and a generalized likelihood ratio test detector is derived to extend applicability to stronger plumes. In addition to detectors whose purpose is to identify presence versus absence of a plume, expressions are also derived for estimating plume strength. The performance of these various detectors is evaluated by implanting simulated plume into background images that are either real hyperspectral images or simulated images based on different (Gaussian, multivariate t, and lognormal) clutter distributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Combining synchrotron X-ray diffraction, mechanistic modeling and machine learning for in situ subsurface temperature quantification during laser melting

Laser melting, such as that encountered during additive manufacturing, produces extreme gradients of temperature in both space and time, which in turn influence microstructural development in the material. Qualification and model validation of the process itself and the resulting material necessitate the ability to characterize these temperature fields. However, well established means to directly probe the material temperature below the surface of an alloy while it is being processed are limited. To address this gap in characterization capabilities, a novel means is presented to extract subsurface temperature-distribution metrics, with uncertainty, from in situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction measurements to provide quantitative temperature evolution data during laser melting. Temperature-distribution metrics are determined using Gaussian process regression supervised machine-learning surrogate models trained with a combination of mechanistic modeling (heat transfer and fluid flow) and X-ray diffraction simulation. The trained surrogate model uncertainties are found to range from 5 to 15% depending on the metric and current temperature. The surrogate models are then applied to experimental data to extract temperature metrics from an Inconel 625 nickel superalloy wall specimen during laser melting. The maximum temperatures of the solid phase in the diffraction volume through melting and cooling are found to reach the solidus temperature as expected, with the mean and minimum temperatures found to be several hundred degrees less. The extracted temperature metrics near melting are determined to be more accurate because of the lower relative levels of mechanical elastic strains. However, uncertainties for temperature metrics during cooling are increased due to the effects of thermomechanical stress.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Equilibrium expectations for non-Gaussian fluctuations near a QCD critical point

With the highly anticipated results from the Beam Energy Scan II program at RHIC being recently revealed, an understanding of particle-number fluctuations and their significance as a potential signature of a possible QCD critical point is crucial. Early works that embarked on this endeavor sought to estimate the fluctuations due to the presence of a critical point assuming they stay in equilibrium. From these results came the proposal to focus efforts on higher, non-Gaussian, moments of the event-by-event distributions, in particular of the number of protons. These non-Gaussian moments are especially sensitive to critical fluctuations, as their magnitudes are proportional to high powers of the critical correlation length. As the equation of state provides key input for hydrodynamical simulations of heavy-ion collisions, we estimate equilibrium fluctuations from the BEST equation of state (EoS) that includes critical features from the 3D Ising Model. In particular, the proton factorial cumulants and their dependence on non-universal mapping parameters is investigated within the BEST EoS. Furthermore, the correlation length, as a central quantity for the assessment of fluctuations in the vicinity of a critical point, is also calculated in a consistent manner with the scaling equation of state. An understanding of the equilibrium estimates of proton factorial cumulants will be useful for further comparison to estimates of out-of-equilibrium fluctuations in order to determine the magnitude of the observable fluctuations to be expected in heavyion collision experiments, in which the time spent near a critical point is short.

Karthein, Jamie M. [Massachusetts Institute of Tec↗

Non-Gaussianity in the weak lensing correlation function likelihood – implications for cosmological parameter biases

ABSTRACT We study the significance of non-Gaussianity in the likelihood of weak lensing shear two-point correlation functions, detecting significantly non-zero skewness and kurtosis in 1D marginal distributions of shear two-point correlation functions in simulated weak lensing data. We examine the implications in the context of future surveys, in particular LSST, with derivations of how the non-Gaussianity scales with survey area. We show that there is no significant bias in 1D posteriors of Ωm and σ8 due to the non-Gaussian likelihood distributions of shear correlations functions using the mock data (100 deg2). We also present a systematic approach to constructing approximate multivariate likelihoods with 1D parametric functions by assuming independence or more flexible non-parametric multivariate methods after decorrelating the data points using principal component analysis (PCA). While the use of PCA does not modify the non-Gaussianity of the multivariate likelihood, we find empirically that the 1D marginal sampling distributions of the PCA components exhibit less skewness and kurtosis than the original shear correlation functions. Modelling the likelihood with marginal parametric functions based on the assumption of independence between PCA components thus gives a lower limit for the biases. We further demonstrate that the difference in cosmological parameter constraints between the multivariate Gaussian likelihood model and more complex non-Gaussian likelihood models would be even smaller for an LSST-like survey. In addition, the PCA approach automatically serves as a data compression method, enabling the retention of the majority of the cosmological information while reducing the dimensionality of the data vector by a factor of ∼5.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Anomalies in the topology of the temperature fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background: An analysis of the NPIPE and FFP10 data releases

We present a topological analysis of the temperature fluctuation maps from the Planck 2020 Data Release 4 NPIPE dataset and the Planck 2018 Data Release 3 FFP10 dataset. We performed a multiscale analysis in terms of the homology characteristics of the maps, invoking relative homology to account for the analysis in the presence of masks. We performed our analysis for a range of smoothing scales spanning sub- and super-horizon scales corresponding to a full width at half maximum (FWHM) of 5',10',20',40',80',160',320', and 640', and employed simulations based on the standard model for comparison, which assumes the initial fluctuation field to be an isotropic and homogeneous Gaussian random field. Examining the behavior of topological components, represented by the 0D homology group, we find the observations to be approximately 2σ or less deviant from the simulations for all resolutions and scales for the NPIPE dataset. For the FFP10 dataset, we detect a 2.96σ deviation between the observations and simulations at N = 128, FWHM = 80'. For the topological loops, represented by the first homology group, the simulations and observations are consistent within 2σ for most resolutions and scales for both the datasets. However, for the NPIPE dataset, we observe a high deviation between the observation and simulations in the number of loops at FWHM = 320', but at a low dimensionless threshold ν = –2.5. Under a Gaussian assumption, this would amount to a deviation of ~4σ. However, the distribution in this bin is manifestly non-Gaussian and does not obey Poisson statistics either. In the absence of a true theoretical understanding, we simply note that the significance is higher than what may be resolved by 600 simulations, yielding an empirical p-value of at most 0.0016. Specifically in this case, our tests indicate that the numbers arise from a statistically stable regime, despite being based on small numbers. For the FFP10 dataset, the differences are not as strong as for the NPIPE dataset, indicating a 2.77σ deviation at this resolution and threshold. The Euler characteristic, which is the alternating sum of the ranks of relative homology groups, reflects the deviations in the components and loops. To assess the significance of combined levels for a given scale, we employed the empirical and theoretical versions of the χ 2 test as well as the nonparametric Tukey depth test. Although all statistics exhibit a stable distribution, we favor the empirical version of the χ 2 test in the final interpretation, as it indicates the most conservative differences. For the NPIPE dataset, we find that the components and loops differ at more than 95%, but agree within the 99% confidence level with respect to the base model at N = 32, FWHM = 320'. The Euler characteristic at this resolution displays a per mil deviation. In contrast, the FFP10 dataset shows that the observations are consistent with the base model within the 95% confidence level, at this and smaller scales. This is consistent with the observations of the Planck analysis pipeline via Minkowski functionals. For the largest smoothing scale, N = 16, FWHM = 640', both datasets exhibit an anomalous behavior of the loops, where FFP10 data exhibit a deviation that is larger by an order of magnitude than that of the NPIPE dataset. In contrast, the values for the topological components and the Euler characteristic agree between observations and model to within a confidence level of 99%. However, for the largest scales, the statistics are based on low numbers and may have to be regarded with caution. Even though both datasets exhibit mild to significant discrepancies, they also exhibit contrasting behaviors at various instances. Therefore, we do not find it feasible to convincingly accept or reject the null hypothesis. Disregarding the large-scale anomalies that persist at similar scales in WMAP and Planck, observations of the cosmic microwave background are largely consistent with the standard cosmological model within 2σ.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Patterning of multicomponent elastic shells by gaussian curvature

Recent findings suggest that shell protein distribution and the morphology of bacterial microcompartments regulate the chemical fluxes facilitating reactions which dictate their biological function. Here, we explore how the morphology and component patterning are coupled through the competition of mean and gaussian bending energies in multicomponent elastic shells that form three-component irregular polyhedra. We observe two softer components with lower bending rigidities allocated on the edges and vertices while the harder component occupies the faces. When subjected to a nonzero interfacial line tension, the two softer components further separate and pattern into subdomains that are mediated by the gaussian curvature. We find that this degree of fractionation is maximized when there is a weaker line tension and when the ratio of bending rigidities between the two softer domains ≈2. Our results reveal a patterning mechanism in multicomponent shells that can capture the observed morphologies of bacterial microcompartments, and moreover, can be realized in synthetic vesicles.

Monte Carlo methods↗

Recursive Gaussian Process over graphs for Integrating Multi-timescale Measurements in Low-Observable Distribution Systems

The transition to a smarter grid is empowered by enhanced sensor deployments and smart metering infrastructure in the distribution system. Measurements from these sensors and meters can be used for many applications, including distribution system state estimation (DSSE). However, these measurements are typically sampled at different rates and could be intermittent due to losses during the aggregation process. These multi timescale measurements should be reconciled in real-time to perform accurate grid monitoring. This paper tackles this problem by formulating a recursive multi-task Gaussian process (RGP-G) approach that sequentially aggregates sensor measurements. Specifically, we formulate a recursive multi-task GP with and without network connectivity information to reconcile the multi time-scale measurements in distribution systems. Here, the proposed framework is capable of aggregating the multi-time scale measurements batch-wise or in real-time. Following the aggregation of the multi time-scale measurements, the spatial states of the consistent time-series are estimated using matrix completion based DSSE approach. Simulation results on IEEE 37 and IEEE 123 bus test systems illustrate the efficiency of the proposed methods from the standpoint of both multi time-scale data aggregation and DSSE.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Physics-Informed Sparse Gaussian Process for Probabilistic Stability Analysis of Large-Scale Power System with Dynamic PVs and Loads

This work proposes a physics-informed sparse Gaussian process (SGP) for probabilistic stability assessment of large-scale power systems in the presence of uncertain dynamic PVs and loads. The differential and algebraic equations considering uncertainties from dynamic PVs and loads are reformulated to a nonlinear mapping relationship that allows the application of SGP. Thanks to the nonparametric characteristic of Gaussian process, the proposed framework does not require distributions of uncertain inputs and this distinguishes it from existing approaches. As the original Gaussian process is not scalable to large-scale systems with high dimensional uncertain inputs, this paper develops the SGP with a stochastic variational inference technique. It leads to approximately two orders of complex reduction. A data pre-processing step is also introduced to tackle the coexistence of stable and unstable cases by sample clustering and constructing separate SGPs. The probabilistic transient stability index is analyzed to assess system stability under different uncertain dynamics loads and PVs. Comparisons are performed with the sampling-based, the polynomial chaos expansion-based, and traditional Gaussian process-based methods on the modified IEEE 118-bus and Texas 2000-bus systems under various scenarios, including different levels of uncertainties and the existence of nonlinear correlations among dynamic PVs. The impacts of data quality and quantity issues are also investigated. It is shown that the proposed SGP achieves significantly improved computational efficiency while maintaining high accuracy with a limited number of data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Model-Free Probabilistic Forecasting of Nodal Voltages in Distribution Systems

As the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems increases, so does the interest in forecasting relevant system variables to help mitigate the associated challenges. One such challenge is the more frequent occurrence of excessive voltages in distribution systems with higher shares of DERs. Accurate and reliable estimates together with forecasts of system states (i.e., nodal voltages) will therefore play a key role in improving the utilization of these variable and uncertain sources while mitigating potential operational risks. Whilst recent literature has explored machine learning (ML) methods for voltage estimation and their extrapolation for a short-time period into the future, few have taken uncertainty quantification into account, and these methods have not yet been translated into operations. This paper discusses the advantages offered by probabilistic voltage forecasts and proposes a non-parametric Bayesian method suitable for forecasting nodal voltages at short-term time horizons while accounting for uncertainties in load and distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation. We demonstrate the value of the proposed Gaussian process (GP) model for a case study using historical forecasts and observation data.

distribution system↗

The intrinsic X-ray luminosity distribution of an optically selected SDSS quasar population

ABSTRACT In active galactic nuclei, the relationship between UV and X-ray luminosity is well studied (often characterised by αox) but often with heterogeneous samples. We have parametrized the intrinsic distribution of X-ray luminosity, LX, for the optically selected sample of SDSS quasars in the Stripe 82 and XXL fields across redshifts 0.5–3.5. We make use of the available XMM observations and a custom pipeline to produce Bayesian sensitivity curves that are used to derive the intrinsic X-ray distribution in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. We find that the X-ray luminosity distribution is well described by a Gaussian function in log10 LX space with a mean that is dependent on the monochromatic 2500 Å UV luminosity, L2500. We also observe some redshift dependence of the distribution. The mean of the LX distribution increases with redshift while the width decreases. This weak but significant redshift dependence leads to L2500–LX and L2500–αox relations that evolve with redshift, and we produce a redshift- and L2500-dependent αox equation. Neither black hole mass nor Eddington ratio appear to be potential drivers of the redshift evolution.

Rankine, Amy L. (ORCID:0000000220911966)↗

Shock state distributions in porous tantalum and characterization with multipoint velocimetry

Heterogenous materials under shock compression can be expected to reach different shock states throughout the material according to local differences in microstructure and the history of wave propagation. Here, in this work, a compact, multiple-beam focusing optic assembly is used with high-speed velocimetry to interrogate the shock response of porous tantalum films prepared through thermal-spray deposition. The distribution of particle velocities across a shocked interface is compared to results obtained using a set of defocused interferometric beams that sampled the shock response over larger areas. The two methods produced velocity distributions along the shock plateau with the same mean, while a larger variance was measured with narrower beams. The finding was replicated using three-dimensional, mesoscopically resolved hydrodynamics simulations of solid tantalum with a pore structure mimicking statistical attributes of the material and accounting for radial divergence of the beams, with agreement across several impact velocities. Accounting for pore morphology in the simulations was found to be necessary for replicating the rise time of the shock plateau. The validated simulations were then used to show that while the average velocity along the shock plateau could be determined accurately with only a few interferometric beams, accurately determining the width of the velocity distribution, which here was approximately Gaussian, required a beam dimension much smaller than the spatial correlation lengthscale of the velocity field, here by a factor of ∼30×, with implications for the study of other porous materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗