Geometry of Non-Diffusive Tracer Transport in Gridded Atmospheric Models
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
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Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation: Filtering Techniques on a Stretched Grid General Circulation Model - Volume 16
This report documents the techniques used to filter quantities on a stretched grid general circulation model. Standard high-latitude filtering techniques (e.g., using an FFT (Fast Fourier Transformations) to decompose and filter unstable harmonics at selected latitudes) applied on a stretched grid are shown to produce significant distortions of the prognostic state when used to control instabilities near the pole. A new filtering technique is developed which accurately accounts for the non-uniform grid by computing the eigenvectors and eigenfrequencies associated with the stretching. A filter function, constructed to selectively damp those modes whose associated eigenfrequencies exceed some critical value, is used to construct a set of grid-spaced weights which are shown to effectively filter without distortion. Both offline and GCM (General Circulation Model) experiments are shown using the new filtering technique. Finally, a brief examination is also made on the impact of applying the Shapiro filter on the stretched grid.
Takacs, Lawrence L.↗
Spatiotemporal Variability of Turbulence Kinetic Energy Budgets in the Convective Boundary Layer over Both Simple and Complex Terrain
The assumption of sub-grid scale (SGS) horizontal homogeneity within a model grid cell, which forms the basis of SGS turbulence closures used by mesoscale models, becomes increasingly tenuous as grid spacing is reduced to a few kilometers or less, such as in many emerging high-resolution applications. Herein, we use the turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) budget equation to study the spatio-temporal variability in two types of terrain—complex (Columbia Basin Wind Energy Study [CBWES] site, north-eastern Oregon) and flat (ScaledWind Farm Technologies [SWiFT] site, west Texas) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In each case six-nested domains (three domains each for mesoscale and large-eddy simulation [LES]) are used to downscale the horizontal grid spacing from 10 km to 10 m using the WRF model framework. The model output was used to calculate the values of the TKE budget terms in vertical and horizontal planes as well as the averages of grid cells contained in the four quadrants (a quarter area) of the LES domain. The budget terms calculated along the planes and the mean profile of budget terms show larger spatial variability at CBWES site than at the SWiFT site. The contribution of the horizontal derivative of the shear production term to the total production shear was found to be 45% and 15% of the total shear, at the CBWES and SWiFT sites, respectively, indicating that the horizontal derivatives applied in the budget equation should not be ignored in mesoscale model parameterizations, especially for cases with complex terrain with <10 km scale.
convective boundary layer↗
Future grid mix impacts on whole-building life cycle assessment
Building construction and operation are a significant contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, so understanding and mitigating emissions is crucial for reliable and realistic emissions accounting. Whole-building Life Cycle Assessment (WBLCA) is an emissions accounting method that considers lifetime environmental impacts of a building during its construction, operation, and eventual end-of-life. When performing WBLCAs, emission calculations from the building's operation over the entire building lifespan are typically based on today's energy grid mixes. This method does not consider changes or advancements in the clean energy proportion within the grid mix and can over or under-inflate results, skewing the ratio of embodied vs. operational environmental impacts. While a variety of prediction tools estimate what future grid emissions might be, predictions can vary widely. To predict the clean energy ratio within future grid mixes and the potential impact these changes might have on WBLCA, annual data from several existing U.S. grid models was averaged and probabilistic modeling was used to extend the usable projections of shorter forecasts. Results show that clean energy sources will likely continue to increase over time, although the rate of growth varies by model. On average, by 2085, the clean energy penetration of the grid is projected to reach ~81% and renewable energy is projected to reach ~71%, although no widespread consensus is reached. To understand how the future grid mix impacts lifetime building emissions within a WBLCA context, the team analyzed two 2021 IECC-compliant all-electric residential buildings: one built from traditional materials and construction processes and the other built with carbon sequestering materials and modular assembly, with a portion of energy generated on site. The results indicate that a moderate estimate of future electricity grid mixes shows a reduction of yearly operational emissions for traditional residential buildings of 55% between 2025 and 2085, and a corresponding reduction of 48% of total emissions over a 60 year building lifespan. This study offers a nuanced approach to account for the variability of future grid mix models and provides an average trend-line based on a robust collection of scenarios.
Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)↗
Grid-Integrated Electric Mobility Model (GEM) v1.0
Transportation is the fastest-growing source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy consumption globally. The convergence of shared mobility, vehicle automation, and electrification has the potential to drastically reduce transportation impacts, but requires careful integration with rapidly evolving electricity systems. We have developed the GEM Model (Grid-Integrated Electric Mobility) to examine these interactions with a U.S.-wide simulation framework encompassing private electric vehicles (EVs); shared automated EVs (SAEVs); charging infrastructure; controlled EV charging; and a grid economic dispatch model to simulate mobility futures exclusively using EVs. We find that an SAEV fleet 9% the size of today's active vehicles can satisfy trip demand with only 2.6 million chargers (0.2 per EV). Controlled EV charging can also reduce electricity demand variability, significantly reducing GHG emissions and decreasing solar curtailment by about one-third. While private EVs with uncontrolled charging would reduce GHG emissions by 53% compared to gasoline vehicles, SAEVs could achieve a 70% reduction.
Sheppard, Colin↗
A dynamic model for the Lagrangian stochastic dispersion coefficient
A stochastic sub-grid model is often used to accurately represent particle dispersion in turbulent flows using large eddy simulations. Models of this type have a free parameter, the dispersion coefficient, which is not universal and is strongly grid-dependent. In the present paper, a dynamic model for the evaluation of the coefficient is proposed and validated in decaying homogeneous isotropic turbulence. The grid dependence of the static coefficient is investigated in a turbulent mixing layer and compared to the dynamic model. The dynamic model accurately predicts dispersion statistics and resolves the grid-dependence. Dispersion statistics of the dynamically calculated constant are more accurate than any static coefficient choice for a number of grid spacings. Furthermore, the dynamic model produces less numerical artefacts than a static model and exhibits smaller sensitivity in the results predicted for different particle relaxation times.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
A Sensitivity Analysis of the Wind Forcing Effect on the Accuracy of Large-Wave Hindcasting
Deployment of wave energy converters (WECs) relies on consistent and accurate wave resource characterization, which is typically achieved through numerical modeling using deterministic wave models. The accurate predictions of large-wave events are critical to the success of wave resource characterization because of the risk on WEC installation, maintenance, and damage caused by extreme sea states. Because wind forcing is the primary driver of wave models, the quality of wind data plays an important role in the accuracy of wave predictions. This study evaluates the sensitivity of large-wave prediction to different wind-forcing products, and identifies a feasible approach to improve wave model results through improved wind forcing. Using a multi-level nested-grid modeling approach, we perform a series of sensitivity tests at four representative National Data Buoy Center buoy locations on the U.S. East and West Coasts. The selected wind-forcing products include the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis global wind product and North American Regional Reanalysis regional wind product as well as the observed wind at the buoys. Sensitivity test results indicate a consistent improvement in model predictions for the large-wave events (e.g., >90th percentile of significant wave height) at all buoys when observed-wind data were used to drive the wave model simulations.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
Ultraviolet ISM diagnostics for star-forming galaxies. I. Tracers of metallicity and extinction
We have observed a sample of 14 nearby (z∼0.03) star-forming blue compact galaxies (BCGs) in the rest-frame far-UV (∼1150–2200 Å) using the Cosmic Origins Spectrograph on the Hubble Space Telescope. We have also generated a grid of stellar population synthesis models using the Starburst99 evolutionary synthesis code, allowing us to compare observations and theoretical predictions for the Si iv-1400 and C iv-1550 UV indices; both are comprised of a blend of stellar wind and interstellar lines and have been proposed as metallicity diagnostics in the UV. Our models and observations both demonstrate that there is a positive linear correlation with metallicity for both indices, and we find generally good agreement between our observations and the predictions of the Starburst99 models (with the models slightly under-estimating the value of the indices due to contributions from interstellar lines not simulated by a stellar population synthesis code). By combining the rest-frame UV observations with pre-existing rest-frame optical spectrophotometry of our BCG sample, we also directly compare the predictions of metallicity and extinction diagnostics across both wavelength regimes. This comparison reveals a correlation between the UV absorption and optical strong-line diagnostics, offering the first means of directly comparing interstellar medium (ISM) properties determined across different rest-frame regimes. Finally, using our Starburst99 model grid, we determine theoretical values for the short-wavelength UV continuum slope, β{sub 18}, which can be used for determining extinction in rest-frame UV spectra of star-forming galaxies. We consider the implications of these results and discuss future work aimed at parameterizing these and other environmental diagnostics in the UV (a suite of diagnostics that could offer particular utility in the study of star-forming galaxies at high redshift) as well as the development of robust comparisons between ISM diagnostics across a broad wavelength baseline.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Developing a Disaster-Ready Power Grid Agent Through Geophysically-Informed Fault Event Scenarios
Management of the nation’s power grid over the coming decades will need to factor multiple climate-driven threats to the power system that can be stressful or even detrimental to its operations. During disasters, grid operators suffer from cognitive overload where the electric grid is severely impacted by the weather, yet grid operators have limited awareness of these factors. Meanwhile, the electric grid is facing an explosion of data coming from a variety of sources which can enable the operator to evaluate the risks and develop mitigation strategies against hazardous events. In this work, we processed heterogeneous environmental and power grid data to learn and model grid behavior caused by extreme weather events. In this study, we focused on two weather-driven hazards, hurricanes and wildfires, which were analysed for the electric grid of Texas. We the used this data to train a Reinforcement Learning (RL) agent by analysing and predicting future behaviour of the grid during those hazard events. All these parts are incorporated in one framework to have a geophysically informed power simulators that can be used to train RL agents.
electic grid, reinforcement learning, climate adap↗
Grey Zone Test Range Social Model
The Grey Zone Test Range (GZTR) social model operates as a piece of the overall GZTR modeling effort. It works in conjunction with supply models for resources, an electric grid model for power availability, and a traffic model for road congestion, as well as a general controller framework that allows external system effects. The social model functions as an aggregate model where the entire population of the city is divided into groups based on the Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZs), a common geospatial boundary present in all GZTR models. These groups will act as a singular community; each time step the state of the system around them will be assessed and then community will come up with a general plan of action that they will attempt to follow for the day. Additionally, they will track values for their general emotional state and memory about negative impacts in the near past.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Aircraft system aft telescope cavity configuration study for Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA), phase 2
The SOFIA Aircraft System (AS) Phase 1 Study was a broad-based study which addressed itself to satisfying technical and programmatic requirements by drawing from existing technology and applying cost-efficient commercial approaches to the aircraft modification. In this SOFIA AS Phase 2 Study, five critical areas of the aircraft were selected for more detailed investigation: forward pressure bulkhead, aft bulkhead, 'free' shell to bulkhead interface, shell cut-out to bulkhead interface, and flooring. The in-depth investigation of these areas upon a finite element model (FEM), with a fine grid model in areas of particular interest, is discussed. The FEM code used is called 'STRAP' and was developed by the engineering firm, Rasmussen and Associates. STRAP is NASTRAN compatible to within 1%. The loads applied to the model were approximated from known 747 envelope conditions. The areas of investigation, and a section through the fuselage is shown. The thrust of this investigation was to develop the design concepts conceived under phase 1 to the point where detailed design could be undertaken with a high level of confidence.
Source record↗
Explicit Filtering and Reconstruction to Reduce Grid Dependence in Convective Boundary Layer Simulations Using WRF-LES
As model grid resolutions move from the mesoscale to the microscale, turbulent structures represented in atmospheric boundary layer simulations change dramatically. At intermediate resolutions, the so-called gray zone, turbulent motions are not resolved accurately, posing a challenge to numerical simulations. The representation of turbulence is also highly sensitive to the choice of closure model. Here, we examine explicit filtering and reconstruction in the gray zone as a technique to better represent atmospheric turbulence. The convective boundary layer is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with horizontal resolutions ranging from 25 m to 1 km. Four large-eddy simulation (LES) turbulence models are considered: the Smagorinsky model, the TKE-1.5 model, and two versions of the dynamic reconstruction model (DRM). The models are evaluated by their ability to produce consistent mean potential temperature profiles, heat and momentum fluxes, velocity fields, and turbulent kinetic energy spectra as the grids become coarser. The DRM, a mixed model that uses an explicit filtering and reconstruction technique to account for resolvable subfilter-scale (RSFS) stresses, performs very well at resolutions of 500 m and 1 km without any special tuning, whereas the Smagorinsky and TKE-1.5 models produce heavily grid-dependent results.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Comparison With Global Soil Radiocarbon Observations Indicates Needed Carbon Cycle Improvements in the E3SM Land Model
We evaluated global soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and turnover time predictions from a global land model (ELMv1-ECA) integrated in an Earth System Model (E3SM) by comparing them with observed soil bulk and Δ 14 C values around the world. We analyzed observed and simulated SOC stocks and Δ 14 C values using machine learning methods at the Earth System Model grid cell scale (~200 km). In grid cells with sufficient observations, the model provided reasonable estimates of soil carbon stocks across soil depth and Δ 14 C values near the surface but underestimated Δ 14 C at depth. Among many explanatory variables, soil albedo index, soil order, plant function type, air temperature, and SOC content were major factors affecting predicted SOC Δ 14 C values. The influences of soil albedo index, soil order, and air temperature were primarily important in the shallow subsurface (≤30 cm). We also performed sensitivity studies using different vertical root distributions and decomposition turnover times and compared to observed SOC stock and Δ 14 C profiles. The analyses support the role of vegetation in affecting soil carbon turnover, particularly in deep soil, possibly through supplying fresh carbon and degrading physical-chemical protection of SOC via root activities. Allowing for grid cell-specific rooting and decomposition rates substantially reduced discrepancies between observed and predicted Δ 14 C values and SOC content. Furthermore, our results highlight the need for more explicit representation of roots, microbes, and soil physical protection in land models.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Systematics in asteroseismic modelling: application of a correlated noise model for oscillation frequencies
ABSTRACT The detailed modelling of stellar oscillations is a powerful approach to characterizing stars. However, poor treatment of systematics in theoretical models leads to misinterpretations of stars. Here, we propose a more principled statistical treatment for the systematics to be applied to fitting individual mode frequencies with a typical stellar model grid. We introduce a correlated noise model based on a Gaussian process (GP) kernel to describe the systematics given that mode frequency systematics are expected to be highly correlated. We show that tuning the GP kernel can reproduce general features of frequency variations for changing model input physics and fundamental parameters. Fits with the correlated noise model better recover stellar parameters than traditional methods that either ignore the systematics or treat them as uncorrelated noise.
Li, Tanda (ORCID:0000000163962563)↗
Evaluating the Impact of Price-Responsive Load on Power Systems Using Integrated T&D Simulation
This paper explores the differences between simulating price-responsive load (PRL) interactions with power systems using integrated transmission and distribution (T&D) models and transmission-only (T-only) models. This analysis uses the Integrated Grid Modeling System (IGMS) software to capture 'ISO-to-appliance' simulations using a synthetic T&D model built on the PJM 5-Bus transmission network with multiple full-scale taxonomy feeders that include physics-based models of thousands of customers and PRLs. The results show important differences in the impacts of PRLs between integrated T&D and T-only models. Experiments with the synthetic integrated T&D dataset demonstrated that integrated T&D simulation revealed notably larger differences between the PRL and no-PRL cases for load, and prices compared to T-only simulation. Similarly, differences are observed between the price response of individual buildings and distribution feeders and the corresponding transmission bus in the integrated T&D simulations, which are difficult to capture in traditional T-only simulations.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
West Flank Coso FORGE: 3D Temperature Model
x,y,z data of the 3D temperature model for the West Flank Coso FORGE site. Model grid spacing is 250m. The temperature model for the Coso geothermal field used over 100 geothermal production sized wells and intermediate-depth temperature holes. At the near surface of this model, two boundary temperatures were assumed: (1) areas with surface manifestations, including fumaroles along the northeast striking normal faults and northwest striking dextral faults with the hydrothermal field, a temperature of ~104 deg C was applied to datum at +1066 meters above sea level elevation, and (2) a near-surface temperature at about 10 meters depth, of 20 deg C was applied below the diurnal and annual conductive temperature perturbations. These assumptions were based on heat flow studies conducted at the CVF and for the Mojave Desert. On the edges of the hydrothermal system, a 73 deg C/km temperature gradient contour was established using conductive gradient data from shallow and intermediate-depth temperature holes. This contour was continued to all elevation datums between the 20 deg C surface and -1520 meters below mean sea level. Because the West Flank is outside of the geothermal field footprint, during Phase 1, the three wells inside the FORGE site were incorporated into the preexisting temperature model. To ensure a complete model was built based on all the available data sets, measured bottom-hole temperature gradients in certain wells were downward extrapolated to the next deepest elevation datum (or a maximum of about 25% of the well depth where conductive gradients are evident in the lower portions of the wells). After assuring that the margins of the geothermal field were going to be adequately modelled, the data was contoured using the Kriging method algorithm. Although the extrapolated temperatures and boundary conditions are not rigorous, the calculated temperatures are anticipated to be within ~6 deg C (20 deg F), or one contour interval, of the observed data within the Coso geothermal field. Based on a lack of temperature data west of 74-2TCH, the edges of this model still seem to have an effect on West Flank modeled temperatures.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
Parametrics on 2D Navier-Stokes analysis of a Mach 2.68 bifurcated rectangular mixed-compression inlet
The supersonic diffuser of a Mach 2.68 bifurcated, rectangular, mixed-compression inlet was analyzed using a two-dimensional (2D) Navier-Stokes flow solver. Parametric studies were performed on turbulence models, computational grids and bleed models. The computer flowfield was substantially different from the original inviscid design, due to interactions of shocks, boundary layers, and bleed. Good agreement with experimental data was obtained in many aspects. Many of the discrepancies were thought to originate primarily from 3D effects. Therefore, a balance should be struck between expending resources on a high fidelity 2D simulation, and the inherent limitations of 2D analysis. The solutions were fairly insensitive to turbulence models, grids and bleed models. Overall, the k-e turbulence model, and the bleed models based on unchoked bleed hole discharge coefficients or uniform velocity are recommended. The 2D Navier-Stokes methods appear to be a useful tool for the design and analysis of supersonic inlets, by providing a higher fidelity simulation of the inlet flowfield than inviscid methods, in a reasonable turnaround time.
Mizukami, M.↗