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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Aerosols at the Poles: An Aerocom Phase II Multi-Model Evaluation

Atmospheric aerosols from anthropogenic and natural sources reach the polar regions through long-range transport and affect the local radiation balance. Such transport is, however, poorly constrained in present-day global climate models, and few multi-model evaluations of polar anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing exist. Here we compare the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm from simulations with 16 global aerosol models from the AeroCom Phase II model intercomparison project with available observations at both poles. We show that the annual mean multi-model median is representative of the observations in Arctic, but that the intermodel spread is large. We also document the geographical distribution and seasonal cycle of the AOD for the individual aerosol species: black carbon (BC) from fossil fuel and biomass burning, sulfate, organic aerosols (OAs), dust, and sea-salt. For a subset of models that represent nitrate and secondary organic aerosols (SOAs), we document the role of these aerosols at high latitudes. The seasonal dependence of natural and anthropogenic aerosols differs with natural aerosols peaking in winter (seasalt) and spring (dust), whereas AOD from anthropogenic aerosols peaks in late spring and summer. The models produce a median annual mean AOD of 0.07 in the Arctic (defined here as north of 60 degrees N). The models also predict a noteworthy aerosol transport to the Antarctic (south of 70 degrees S) with a resulting AOD varying between 0.01 and 0.02. The models have estimated the shortwave anthropogenic radiative forcing contributions to the direct aerosol effect (DAE) associated with BC and OA from fossil fuel and biofuel (FF), sulfate, SOAs, nitrate, and biomass burning from BC and OA emissions combined. The Arctic modelled annual mean DAE is slightly negative (-0.12 W m(exp. -2), dominated by a positive BC FF DAE in spring and a negative sulfate DAE in summer. The Antarctic DAE is governed by BC FF. We perform sensitivity experiments with one of the AeroCom models (GISS modelE) to investigate how regional emissions of BC and sulfate and the lifetime of BC influence the Arctic and Antarctic AOD. A doubling of emissions in eastern Asia results in a 33 percent increase in Arctic AOD of BC. A doubling of the BC lifetime results in a 39 percent increase in Arctic AOD of BC. However, these radical changes still fall within the AeroCom model range.

Sand, Maria↗
NASA NTRS2018

Future of the North American Carbon Cycle: Chapter - 19

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, primarily due to fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, are expected to continue to drive changes in both climate and the terrestrial and ocean carbon cycles. Over the past two-to-three decades, there has been considerable effort to understand how terrestrial and oceanic systems behave (in response to rising atmospheric CO2 and changing climate conditions), quantify the dynamics of system responses to environmental change, and project how the ocean and terrestrial carbon cycle will interact with, and influence, future atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate. In this presentation, we will summarize key findings related to projected changes to the North American carbon cycle and drivers and associated consequences of these changes, as reported in Chapter 19 of the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2). The findings not only capture projections of emissions from fossil fuel and changes in land cover and land use, but also highlight the decline in future carbon uptake capacity of North American carbon reservoirs and soil carbon losses from the Northern high-latitudes. Such a discussion of future carbon cycle changes is new in SOCCR-2, yet timely. It underlines the progress made since the release of the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-1) in 2007 in identifying the vulnerability of key carbon pools and their co-evolution with changing climatic conditions. We will also discuss key knowledge gaps and outline a set of future research priorities, including both monitoring and modeling activities, that are necessary to improve projections of future changes to the North American carbon cycle and associated adaptation and resource-management decisions.

North America↗
NASA NTRS2003

Black Carbon in Estuarine (Coastal) High-molecular-weight Dissolved Organic Matter

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) in the ocean constitutes one of the largest pools of organic carbon in the biosphere, yet much of its composition is uncharacterized. Observations of black carbon (BC) particles (by-products of fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning) in the atmosphere, ice, rivers, soils and marine sediments suggest that this material is ubiquitous, yet the contribution of BC to the ocean s DOM pool remains unknown. Analysis of high-molecular-weight DOM isolated from surface waters of two estuaries in the northwest Atlantic Ocean finds that BC is a significant component of DOM, suggesting that river-estuary systems are important exporters of BC to the ocean through DOM. We show that BC comprises 4-7% of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) at coastal ocean sites, which supports the hypothesis that the DOC pool is the intermediate reservoir in which BC ages prior to sedimentary deposition. Flux calculations suggest that BC could be as important as vascular plant-derived lignin in terms of carbon inputs to the ocean. Production of BC sequesters fossil fuel- and biomass-derived carbon into a refractory carbon pool. Hence, BC may represent a significant sink for carbon to the ocean.

Mannino, Antonio↗
DOE OSTI2023

New Tool Evaluates the Financial Viability of Pumped Storage Hydropower

The rapidly evolving electricity system with increasing variable renewable energy (VRE) resources provides both opportunities and challenges for the power sector. With the significant ramps and intermittency associated with VRE resources, the requirements and need for additional flexible resources increase. Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) provides flexibility to the electricity grid to replace fossil fuel plants, which are responsible for 25% of U.S. emissions. PSH projects support various aspects of power system operations, including flexibility, ramping capability, energy, ancillary service, black start, and others. The significant potential of hydropower requires understanding the different value drivers to the electricity system specific to the location of a project and then optimizing the plant for the different system values. Thus, determining the value of PSH projects and their many services and contributions to the electricity system can be a challenge for potential developers, system owners, regulators, policy makers, and consultants.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Renewable Thermal Hybridization Framework for Industrial Process Heat Applications

Renewable thermal energy systems (RTES) could be hybridized with different renewable options (e.g., flat plate collectors (FPCs) with parabolic collectors), or combined with existing heat supplies (e.g., fossil fuels), to give options for targeted solar IPH applications, industrial decarbonization and the reduction of fuel consumption. Buildings and industrial thermal energy applications require different temperature ranges, quantities, and rates of thermal energy, and as such require flexible, cost competitive solutions, able to provide heat over various temperature ranges. Hybrid solutions and thermal energy storage (TES) will be important for the dispatch of heat at optimal times needed by the demand side of the buildings and industrial applications. A variety of tools and platforms, such as the System Advisor Model (SAM), can provide hourly thermal yield simulations from single renewable energy (RE) technology options, including FPCs or CSP for solar IPH. We have investigated a variety of approaches to hybrid system modeling for RTES at different temperatures or combinations of technologies and developed an initial framework. The hybridization framework starts by creating a heat stream and raising the temperature of that heat stream by various combinations of RE technologies and other sources such as fossil fuels, new fuels or electric heating in multiple stages, with options for TES and/or waste heat recovery (WHR).

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
NASA NTRS2013

Radiative Forcing of the Direct Aerosol Effect from AeroCom Phase II Simulations

We report on the AeroCom Phase II direct aerosol effect (DAE) experiment where 16 detailed global aerosol models have been used to simulate the changes in the aerosol distribution over the industrial era. All 16 models have estimated the radiative forcing (RF) of the anthropogenic DAE, and have taken into account anthropogenic sulphate, black carbon (BC) and organic aerosols (OA) from fossil fuel, biofuel, and biomass burning emissions. In addition several models have simulated the DAE of anthropogenic nitrate and anthropogenic influenced secondary organic aerosols (SOA). The model simulated all-sky RF of the DAE from total anthropogenic aerosols has a range from −0.58 to −0.02 W m(sup−2), with a mean of −0.27 W m(sup−2 for the 16 models. Several models did not include nitrate or SOA and modifying the estimate by accounting for this with information slightly strengthens the mean. Modifying the model estimates for missing aerosol components and for the time period 1750 to 2010 results in a mean RF for the DAE of −0.35 W m(sup−2). Compared to AeroCom Phase I (Schulz et al., 2006) we find very similar spreads in both total DAE and aerosol component RF. However, the RF of the total DAE is stronger negative and RF from BC from fossil fuel and biofuel emissions are stronger positive in the present study than in the previous AeroCom study.We find a tendency for models having a strong (positive) BC RF to also have strong (negative) sulphate or OA RF. This relationship leads to smaller uncertainty in the total RF of the DAE compared to the RF of the sum of the individual aerosol components. The spread in results for the individual aerosol components is substantial, and can be divided into diversities in burden, mass extinction coefficient (MEC), and normalized RF with respect to AOD. We find that these three factors give similar contributions to the spread in results

Computer simulation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Detailed Parameter Modeling of Open-Cycle Gas Turbines on Production Cost Simulation: Preprint

Flexible resources are increasingly important as variable renewable energy deployment in the power system increases. Although many systems are transitioning away from fossil fuels, open-cycle gas turbines are likely to play an important balancing role for some time, thus requiring accurate modeling of their operational parameters. This paper explores the impact of detailed representation of three operational parameters - start- up costs, run-up rates, and forced outage rates - in the production cost model of a system as it adopts higher levels of wind and solar. Using PLEXOS simulations of the NREL-118 bus test system, the study examines how more detailed parameter modeling affects outcomes such as the number of start-ups and shutdowns, ramping and total generation costs for open-cycle gas turbines, as renewable energy levels increase. The results suggest the value of detailed parameter modeling and continued research on combustion turbines' ability to provide flexibility.

economic dispatch↗
NASA NTRS2005

Modeling Atmospheric CO2 Processes to Constrain the Missing Sink

We report on a NASA supported modeling effort to reduce uncertainty in carbon cycle processes that create the so-called missing sink of atmospheric CO2. Our overall objective is to improve characterization of CO2 source/sink processes globally with improved formulations for atmospheric transport, terrestrial uptake and release, biomass and fossil fuel burning, and observational data analysis. The motivation for this study follows from the perspective that progress in determining CO2 sources and sinks beyond the current state of the art will rely on utilization of more extensive and intensive CO2 and related observations including those from satellite remote sensing. The major components of this effort are: 1) Continued development of the chemistry and transport model using analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, with comparison to real time data in both forward and inverse modes; 2) An advanced biosphere model, constrained by remote sensing data, coupled to the global transport model to produce distributions of CO2 fluxes and concentrations that are consistent with actual meteorological variability; 3) Improved remote sensing estimates for biomass burning emission fluxes to better characterize interannual variability in the atmospheric CO2 budget and to better constrain the land use change source; 4) Evaluating the impact of temporally resolved fossil fuel emission distributions on atmospheric CO2 gradients and variability. 5) Testing the impact of existing and planned remote sensing data sources (e.g., AIRS, MODIS, OCO) on inference of CO2 sources and sinks, and use the model to help establish measurement requirements for future remote sensing instruments. The results will help to prepare for the use of OCO and other satellite data in a multi-disciplinary carbon data assimilation system for analysis and prediction of carbon cycle changes and carbodclimate interactions.

Kawa, S. R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterization of Oil and Gas Drill Cuttings for Critical Mineral Recovery and Reuse Potential as Soil Supplements

Expansion of unconventional oil and natural gas production over the last decade in the United States has resulted in record production of natural gas and oil in 2024. Millions of tons of drill cuttings generated from shale gas development are currently disposed of in landfills. Converting these cuttings into value product(s) such as critical minerals (CMs) and soil supplements, has the potential of reducing environmental impact of fossil fuel exploration. In this study we characterize the CM distribution and extractability from collected drill cuttings and core samples from major U.S. shale formations. A four-step sequential extraction, consisting of a sonicated soap step, sonicated EDTA step , mildly reducing agent, and a oxidizing agent, was developed to simultaneously extract CMs and convert the drill cuttings into soil supplements. Viability of converted drill cuttings as soil supplement was determined with a seedling growth experiment. Results show high concentrations of vanadium (V) (up to 1575 ppm, barite (up to 5 wt. %), and rare earth elements (REE) concentrations (up to 253 ppm). High extractability of selected critical minerals such as REE (19-50%) and Ba (10-58%) show promising results. Preliminary results show seedling growth in a mixture of converted drill cuttings with soil. These results show the potential for recovery of CMs from drill cuttings as an alternative domestic and the reduction of the environmental impact of fossil fuel production.

Barczok, Maximilian↗
DOE OSTI2023

Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology has significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigate the impact of climate change, particularly in hard to decarbonize industrial and commercial sectors. CCUS involves capturing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from industrial processes or power generation and utilizing it for other purposes, such as enhanced oil recovery (EOR), or storing the captured CO 2 underground. CCUS technology can reduce the environmental impact of continued fossil fuel use while smoothing the transition to a low-carbon economy. CCUS can create new economic opportunities, such as the development of new industries and job creation, and can enhance energy security by diversifying energy sources. For these reasons, enabling CCUS has become a key objective of the Biden-Harris administration’s clean energy policy and has received bipartisan support. Despite its environmental and economic potential, CCUS faces multiple barriers to widespread deployment. One of the main challenges is the high cost and technical difficulty of implementing and operating large-scale CCUS infrastructure. CCUS remains a relatively expensive way to reduce carbon emissions (e.g., compared to solar photovoltaic technology’s displacement of coal generation). Additionally, financial incentives and supportive policies like those enacted to support solar photovoltaic development, especially at the state level, are inconsistent or nonexistent, which can discourage investment in CCUS projects. There are also technical challenges associated with safe and secure underground CO 2 storage and the development of new carbon utilization technologies. Public opposition to various aspects of CCUS technologies, ranging from concerns that CCUS will extend reliance on fossil fuels to CCUS infrastructure being sited in disadvantaged communities, is a growing challenge. This paper focuses on another significant barrier to broad CCUS deployment: the need for considerable expansion of the dedicated land-based CO 2 pipeline network in the United States to meet CCUS goals and the unique regulatory challenges to its development. To reach carbon emissions targets in the United States by 2050, CCUS technology will need to be supported by tens of thousands of miles of CO 2 pipelines. Estimates range from a minimum of roughly 29,000 pipeline miles (according to a 2020 Great Plains Institute study) to 66,000 pipeline miles (as per a 2021 Princeton University–led study). As of October 2022, however, the U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) reports fewer than 5,400 miles of U.S. pipelines carrying CO 2 . This deficit—and what it means for the prospect of moving substantially larger quantities of CO 2 from source to use or storage—threatens to stifle the development of CCUS projects and technologies identified as an important tool to meet emissions targets. The current regulatory landscape facing CO 2 pipeline development can best be described as uncertain. At the federal level, the U.S. DOT Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) oversees safety regulation of pipelines transporting hazardous materials, including CO 2 upon commencement of operation. However, PHMSA’s definition of CO 2 as “a fluid consisting of more than 90 percent CO 2 molecules compressed to a supercritical state” has not been updated since its 1991 addition to the Federal Register. Because CO 2 can be transported in a gaseous, liquid, or supercritical state (indeed, the physical state of CO 2 can fluctuate within a single pipeline due to environmental changes), doubts persist about the extent of PHMSA’s purview—and raise questions about what, if anything, states should do to address this apparent gap. PHMSA has begun a major revision of its existing rules, but the agency does not expect a first draft before 2024. Economic oversight of CO 2 pipelines is even less clear. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and Surface Transportation Board (STB)—which regulate the rates of interstate oil/natural gas and non-energy pipelines, respectively—have both declined jurisdiction over interstate CO 2 pipelines. This presumably leaves economic regulation to state and/or local governments, but few if any states have the laws or resources in place to oversee just and reasonable rates. Further, the interstate nature of CO 2 pipeline development creates questions around how different states should align their rate-making decisions. Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation Currently, regulatory responsibilities regarding CO 2 pipeline siting and permitting fall to state and local governments. The variety of laws and regulations across the country, however, creates a maze of requirements for pipeline developers to navigate. To secure necessary permits, most states require pipeline companies to be “common carriers” that provide transport service to the public at uniform rates. However, the specific definition of that term varies. Some states require clear evidence that a pipeline services the public, while others automatically deem any pipeline company transporting energy products or hazardous materials to be a “common carrier”—with little consideration for accessibility to third parties. Other states have eschewed common-carrier terminology entirely, placing private and publicly accessible pipelines on equal footing. Much like the variation in common-carrier requirements, laws governing eminent domain authority to secure rights-of-way (ROW) to commence construction on a planned pipeline route differ by state. Several states have no laws or rules governing CO 2 pipelines. In addition to creating questions about whether long-standing rules for other pipelines (e.g., natural gas or petroleum products) apply to CO 2 , this policy vacuum leaves local governments as the sole authority over sections of pipe within their boundaries. With dozens of counties along a given route, the probability of inconsistent regulation of the same pipeline is significant. Even in states with CO 2 pipeline laws in place, local regulatory attempts to address rising concerns over pipeline routing and safety have triggered lawsuits by pipeline companies seeking to delimit areas of federal, state, and local government responsibility. Meanwhile, legislators across the country have introduced bills to restrict the application of eminent domain to CO 2 pipeline projects, which could threaten a key means of securing ROW that companies cannot secure through negotiation with landowners. Taken separately, any of these regulatory issues—the narrow federal definition of CO 2 , FERC’s and STB’s decisions that CO 2 pipelines are not within their jurisdiction, and the considerable variation in state and local governments’ laws regulating CO 2 pipeline technologies—are extremely difficult to resolve. Adding the required scale of CO 2 pipeline expansion and the currently identified narrow window of time in which to reach climate target goals, the task becomes even more difficult—and raises a host of urgent questions for regulators. How should CO 2 be defined in federal regulations to ensure consistent safety standards across the country? What is the potential impact radius of a CO 2 pipeline rupture, and how should that inform local emergency response? In the absence of centralized federal oversight, what should state legislatures do to increase alignment for interstate CO 2 pipeline projects? This paper intends to serve as a primer for regulators and stakeholders who seek to better understand the regulatory challenges and opportunities facing this critical infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Contemporary Analysis of the O'Neill-Glaser Model for Space-Based Solar Power and Habitat Construction

In 1975 Gerard O Neill published in the journal Science a model for the construction of solar power satellites. He found that the solar power satellites suggested by Peter Glaser would be too massive to launch economically from Earth, but could be financially viable if the workforce was permanently located in free space habitats and if lunar and asteroid materials were used for construction. All new worldwide electrical generating capacity could be then achieved by solar power satellites. The project would financially break even in about 20 years after which it would generate substantial income selling power below fossil fuel prices. Two NASA / Stanford University led studies at Ames Research center during the summers of 1974 and 1976 found the concept technically sound and developed a detailed financial parametric model. Although the project was not undertaken when suggested in the 1970s, several contemporary issues make pursuing the O Neill -- Glaser concept more compelling today. First, our analysis suggests that if in the first ten years of construction that small habitats (compared to the large vista habitats envisioned by O Neill) supporting approximately 300 people were utilized, development costs of the program and the time for financial break even could be substantially improved. Second, the contemporary consensus is developing that carbon free energy is required to mitigate global climate change. It is estimated that 300 GW of new carbon free energy would be necessary per year to stabilize global atmospheric carbon. This is about 4 times greater energy demand than was considered by the O Neill Glaser model. Our analysis suggests that after the initial investments in lunar mining and space manufacturing and transportation, that the profit margin for producing space solar power is very high (even when selling power below fossil fuel prices). We have investigated the financial scaling of ground launched versus space derived space solar power satellites. We find that for the carbon mitigation case even modernized ground launched space solar power satellites are not financially viable. For space derived solar power satellites, however, the increased demand makes them break even substantially sooner and yield much higher profit. Third, current awareness is increasing about the dangers of humanity remaining a single planet species. Our technological power has been increasing relative to the size of the planet Earth. Since the middle of the 20th century our technological power has grown large relative to our planet's size. This presents a very real potential for human self-extinction. We argue that the potential for human self-extinction is increasing with time in proportion to the exponential growth of our technological power making self-extinction likely within this century if humanity remains a single planet species. The O Neill model of multiple independent free space habitats, it is argued, can protect humanity from extinction in the same way that portfolio diversification protects ones assets from total loss. We show that about 1 million people for the electricity only case, and about 1 billion people for the carbon mitigation case, can be provided with permanent space habitats and transportation from Earth in 30 years and can be funded by the space derived solar power satellite program. 1.2 Scope of this Chapter The goal of this chapter is to illustrate the power and importance of the O'Neill-Glaser concept in the context of human survival and maintaining a healthy planet Earth. We argue that at this point in human history our technological power is too dangerous to our selves and our home planet for us not to expand into space. We show by the models presented in the chapter that the imminent dangers of global warming and human self-extinction mandate that humanity move aggressively into the solar system in this generation. We show that the production of solar power satellites using space resources and with a work foe living in space provides a viable financial model to mitigate CO2 preventing the worst global warming scenarios, and safeguards humanity against self-extinction by providing hundreds of habitats and a billion people living in space within about 35 years. To accomplish this goal we need only consider the classic O'Neill-Glaser model which was parameterized for 1970's technological projections. Only habitat size optimization for the first ten years of production is added. This is a conservative approach since the innovations of the last 30 years will make the financial projections more favorable. However, the classic O'Neill-Glaser model represented a broad technological consensus. The model is well documented in the references and our calculations can be easily reproduced In this chapter the economics of the O Neill - Glaser model is compared with models that rely exclusively on Earth launched materials. Although many studies of Earth launched Solar Power Satellites have been made, we found that the NASA "Fresh Look Study" was the most comprehensive and well documented. It also provided one of the most optimistic Earth launch financial projections. We thus chose it for comparison purposes.

Curreri, Peter A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying airborne fraction trends and the destination of anthropogenic CO 2 by tracking carbon flows in a simple climate model

Abstract Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations have increased as a direct result of human activity and are at their highest level over the last 2 million years, with profound impacts on the Earth system. However, the magnitude and future dynamics of land and ocean carbon sinks are not well understood; therefore, the amount of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions that remain in the atmosphere (the airborne fraction) is poorly constrained. This work aims to quantify the sources and controls of atmospheric CO 2 , the fate of anthropogenic CO 2 over time, and the likelihood of a trend in the airborne fraction. We use Hector v3.0, a coupled simple climate and carbon cycle model with the novel ability to explicitly track carbon as it flows through the Earth system. We use key model parameters in a Monte Carlo analysis of 15 000 model runs from 1750 to 2300. Results are filtered for physical realism against historical observations and CMIP6 projection data, and we calculate the relative importance of parameters controlling how much anthropogenic carbon ends up in the atmosphere. Modeled airborne fraction was roughly 52%, consistent with observational studies. The overwhelming majority of model runs exhibited a negative trend in the airborne fraction from 1960–2020, implying that current-day land and ocean sinks are proportionally taking up more carbon than the atmosphere. However, the percentage of atmospheric CO 2 derived from anthropogenic origins can be much higher because of Earth system feedbacks. We find it peaks at over 90% between 2010–2050. Moreover, when looking at the destination of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions, only a quarter ends up in the atmosphere while more than half of emissions are taken up by the land sink on centennial timescales. This study evaluates the likelihood of airborne fraction trends and provides insights into the dynamics of anthropogenic CO 2 in the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

How structural differences influence cross-model consistency: An electric sector case study

Multiple models are often employed to describe a range of possible outcomes for one or more scenarios, yielding insights into causal relationships and their uncertainties. Electric sector capacity expansion scenarios are a common topic of such efforts due to the economic influence of the electric sector, but model results typically span a broad solution space despite efforts to harmonize input assumptions, making decision implications difficult to discern. This study investigates the relationship between input harmonization and cross-model scenario consistency under disparate electric sector scenarios. We compare cross-model consistency between two state-of-the-art electric sector capacity expansion models (GCAM-USA and ReEDS) for six electric sector scenarios comprising alternate assumptions about fossil fuel resource availability, technology innovation, and long-term economy-wide transitions under four harmonization configurations varying model representations of electricity demand, fuel prices, renewable resources, and capacity retirements. These comparisons reveal that cross-model consistency can vary across scenarios under a given harmonization configuration, suggesting that harmonization efforts must often be scenario-specific if comparable cross-model consistency is desired. Model structural differences can hinder consistency, and the impact of these differences can depend on the scenario. Ultimately, thorough harmonization can reveal insights into cross-model consistency, which can be used to tighten uncertainty bounds and improve the decision-making implications of multi-model activities.

Cohen, Stuart↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geospatial characterization of low-temperature heating and cooling demand in residential, commercial, manufacturing, agricultural, and data center sectors for potential geothermal applications in the United States

Thermal demand for heating and cooling has been predominantly supplied by fossil fuel combustion in the United States, although low-carbon alternatives are extensively available including geothermal, solar thermal, and waste heat. Here, this study analyzed end-use energy consumption, fuel expenditure, and data center commissioned power data to geospatially characterize the U.S. low-temperature heating and cooling demand at the county level in residential, commercial, manufacturing, agricultural, and data center sectors and understand potential opportunities for geothermal applications. In the analysis, the regional-scale energy consumption data was incorporated with system efficiencies to address actual demand and was then disaggregated with weighting factors to the county level. The results indicated that total low-temperature heating and cooling demand is 16.7 EJ, combining heating demand of 10.8 EJ and cooling demand of 5.9 EJ. Overall, 59.9 % (10 EJ) of the low-temperature heating and cooling demand occurred in the residential sector. The heating and cooling demand visualized in maps represented that the geospatial distribution of heating and cooling demand in the residential and commercial sectors is governed by the number of housing units and climate zone designations, while heating and cooling demand in the manufacturing, agricultural, and data center sectors is dependent on the number and location of facilities. The results also demonstrated that geothermal heat pumps are broadly used in the residential and commercial sectors for heating and cooling in the U.S. Midwest, South, and Northeast regions but are limited in the West, implying great decarbonization potential in the future.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Risk Analysis for Remote Operation of Microreactors

Microreactors are a subset of advanced nuclear reactors that can be factory fabricated, transportable, and self-regulating. They have the potential to be used in microgrids, rural and remote areas, or emergency response applications, replacing fossil fuel sources like diesel generators and enabling sustainable energy generation. In order to make microreactor operation cost-effective, it is likely that remote communications will be needed to reduce the number of personnel required to be on site. While remote operation of energy generation and other industrial control systems is common in other industries, it is not yet adopted in the nuclear community and has many perceived and actual risks. In this paper, the severity of the risks introduced by remote operations for microreactors are explored. The primary changes in the operations involve the addition of a remote communications network and a certification system for data and controls. These changes lend themselves to considerations of cyber risks, whether unintentional or adversarial, but the assessment considers not just cyber risks introduced, but also how physical and human factors-based risks will impact the remote operations system and change the overall risk profile. This initial assessment indicates that there are standard cyber and mitigation measures that can be put in place so the risk of doing remote operations does not dramatically increase compared to local operations. This evaluation is a critical step in the process of evaluating if remote operations of microreactors is a suitable solution to meet future sustainable grid needs

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-economic analysis of renewable energy generation at the South Pole

Transitioning from fossil-fuel power generation to renewable energy generation and energy storage in remote locations has the potential to reduce both carbon emissions and cost. Here, this study presents a techno-economic analysis for implementation of a hybrid renewable energy system at the South Pole in Antarctica, which currently hosts several high-energy physics experiments with nontrivial power needs. A tailored model of resource availability and economics for solar photovoltaics, wind turbine generators, lithium-ion energy storage, and long-duration energy storage at this site is explored in different combinations with and without existing diesel energy generation. The Renewable Energy Integration and Optimization (REopt) platform is used to determine the optimal system component sizing and the associated system economics and environmental benefit. We find that the least-cost system includes all three energy generation sources and lithium-ion energy storage. For an example steady-state load of 170 kW, this hybrid system includes 180 kW-DC of photovoltaic panels, 570 kW of wind turbines, and a 3.4 MWh lithium-ion battery energy storage system. This system reduces diesel consumption by 95% compared to an all -diesel configuration, resulting in approximately 1200 metric tons of carbon footprint avoided annually. Over the course of a 15-year analysis period the reduced diesel usage leads to a net savings of 57 million United States dollars, with a time to payback of approximately two years. All the scenarios modeled show that the transition to renewables is highly cost effective under the unique economics and constraints of this extremely remote site.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhancement of Optical Efficiency of CSP Mirrors for Reducing O&M Cost via Near-Continuous Operation of Self-Cleaning Electrodynamic Screens (EDS). Final Report

Over the past decade, techno-economical advancements in solar energy systems, particularly the improvement in the conversion efficiency of PV modules made with mono-crystalline silicon solar cells from 12% to 20%, as well as the cost reduction in manufacturing by a factor of about 10%, have made it possible to achieve a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) in PV plants that is comparable to, or less than, the cost of deriving electricity from fossil fuels. Operating PV plants in mid-latitude sun-belt regions, where the solar irradiance level is highest, provides a high annual energy-yield (kWh/kWp) due to two factors: (1) the availability of predictable high solar irradiance throughout the year with the fewest interruptions in solar flux from clouds and rain, and (2) the increased conversion efficiency of crystalline solar cells, as recombination loss has decreased with increased intensity of the sunlight that illuminates the silicon solar cells. Semi-arid and desert regions, however, are plagued by high atmospheric dust concentrations and frequent sand storms. The deposition of a layer of dust on the optical surfaces of solar collectors such as PV modules and concentrating mirrors reduces the transmission efficiency of sunlight that actually reaches the solar cells or receivers, resulting in high energy-yield soiling loss. There are two major cost components to operating a solar plant: (1) installation costs, and (2) operation-and-maintenance (O&M) costs. There is no fuel cost; hence operating a solar plant in a semi-arid or desert region provides high returns on investment if soiling losses are mitigated via efficient cleaning methods and optimized cleaning frequency. If solar collectors are not cleaned, the accumulation of dust layers on solar collectors may cause the operation of such plants in arid regions to become economically unviable. Washing solar collectors with water and detergent, as is most commonly done now, is an efficient method for cleaning. The conventional approach in utility-scale solar plants is to use a large truck with a water tank and pump system for spraying deionized water on the surface of the solar collectors. Robotic cleaning with brushes, used for many solar plants, requires lesser water for cleaning. The water consumed using semi-automated cleaning of PV modules in utility-scale solar plants is approximately 2 liters/m 2 per cleaning cycle. The total optical surface area of the solar collectors in 1 TW-scale solar installation will be more than 3 × 109 m 2 ; hence an enormous amount of water be needed for cleaning. There simply is not enough fresh water in the sun-belt areas of the world for predicted cleaning needs. In solar power plants, the estimated cost of cleaning solar collectors includes expenses related to the equipment used, labor, cost of transportation of water, the energy required for cleaning, plus ancillary costs whereas the cost of water is not considered. The water used is obtained from sources located close to plant sites, unmindful of the environmental and societal impact as the power plants are oftentimes located in regions that face severe drought. This practice is very similar to the cost calculations in deriving the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) in conventional power plants based on burning fossil fuel such as coal and gas, while disregarding the cost of climate change and health effects. Unless a water-free or low-water cleaning method is established, the expansion of solar plants may lose public support in areas suffering long intervals of drought. The goal of this research project has been the development and application of the Electrodynamic Screen (EDS) as a means for a water-free, scalable cleaning process applicable to solar-power installations, including rooftop applications. We describe here the development of an EDS film-based cleaning process as an emerging method for use on PV modules, parabolic troughs, and heliostats. This report aims to show the feasibility of integrating or retrofitting EDS films onto the optical surfaces of solar collectors (both PV and CSP) while maintaining high transmission or reflection efficiency. The cleaning action provided by the EDS film is an active method to remove dust deposits by electrodynamic force. Current lab-scale prototype EDS films, retrofitted onto solar panels and mirrors, have shown to be capable of maintaining optical transmission or specular-reflection efficiencies higher than 90% of initial values under clean conditions. The optical surfaces of solar collectors laminated with EDS films can remove more than 90% of deposited dust when the EDS is activated for less than two minutes. As an electrodynamic dust removal process, the EDS film-based method is designed primarily for the removal of dust in solar installations located in semi-arid and desert areas, where the atmosphere is often dry and dusty and rainfall is infrequent. While EDS film application minimizes water consumption and facilitates cleaning as frequently as needed, it has limitations in removing contaminants such as soot, organic pollutants deposited as fine films on the surface, and bird droppings. The dust removal efficiency of the EDS is maximum at relative humidity RH is 40 to 50% and decreases at when RH > 65%. Many solar plant sites undergo diurnal and seasonal cycles of high ambient, early afternoon temperatures and an RH that reaches the dew point early in the morning. These variations in atmospheric conditions do not limit the operation of the EDS film. This report presents a brief review of the progress and the potential of EDS film technology for mitigating the impact of dust on solar collectors via water-free cleaning, as well as current technical challenges regarding efficiency and durability. Our experimental data on the performance of EDS films show that: (1) the dust-removal efficiency (DRE) can reach levels higher than 90%, (2) the specular reflectivity (SR) of EDS film-laminated second-surface mirrors reach levels in excess of 90%, (3) the specular reflectivity restoration (SRR) can exceed 90%, (4) the output-power restoration (OPR) of PV modules can exceed 95%, and (5) the optical transmission efficiency (TE) of the EDS films can be greater than 90%. Working with Sandia National Laboratories (NM), Corning Research and Development Corporation (NY), Eastman Kodak (NY), Tomark-Worthen Industries (NH), and EDS Chile SPA (Chile), we have produced EDS film-laminated PV modules and demonstrated their self-cleaning functions without requiring water. We have demonstrated that the operational range of EDS films will cover the expected ambient temperature of solar fields at RH cycling varying from 20 to 95% as long as the EDS films are activated in the RH range 20 to 50%. (Typical solar-field climates in deserts and semi-arid lands often reach near dew point in coastal areas.) Our experiments on the application of hydrophobic-fluorinated nanoparticle coatings on EDS film surfaces show that the EDS operational range can be extended to higher RH levels that approach the dew point. At Eastman Kodak, as one of our industrial partners, we were able to establish a process for manufacturing EDS films using flexographic printing of the electrodes onto transparent polymer films. This process utilizes an existing manufacturing line at Eastman Kodak that allows fabrication of medium-scale EDS films (26 cm × 30 cm). The manufacturing process has the capacity to produce EDS films at high production speeds. The medium-scale EDS films that have been printed at Kodak were evaluated in the lab at Boston University. The EDS films produced at Kodak were laminated at Tomark-Worthen using an industrial scale vacuum laminator to produce EDS film stacks, which can be affixed onto the optical surfaces of PV modules or concentrating mirrors. The EDS film stack consists of the EDS films that have Willow® Glass (WG) which has a thickness of 100 μm as the front surface. The WG sheets obtained from Corning Research and Development Corporation are customized in size and shape to cover the active area of the EDS films. The back surface of the EDS film stack is integrated onto the optical surface of the solar panel or mirror using optically clear adhesive (OCA) films or silicone adhesives. The OCA films (thickness 25 μm) are produced by 3M. The EDS film stacks have the architecture: WG/OCA/EDS Film/OCA/ over PV module or solar mirror. The power-supply units needed for activating the electrodes of the EDS film were designed and produced at Boston University. These power supply units provide three-phase, 1.2 kV voltage pulses at a very low current (micro-ampere) level and at a low frequency (≈ 5 Hz). The voltage pulses are applied to the electrodes in a sequence such that the train of pulses resembles a unidirectional traveling wave of electrical field on the surface of the EDS film. The dust particles on the surface become charged electrostatically and are levitated by the Coulomb force. The lateral sweeping action of the traveling electric field created by the three-phase voltages pulses then sweeps the dust off the surface. The energy consumed by the EDS electrodes is less than 0.2 Wh/m 2 /cleaning cycle, enabling energy-efficient restoration of output power (OPR) of PV module or specular reflectivity restoration (SRR) for solar mirrors. The EDS system consists of (1) an EDS film stack laminated onto the solar collectors, (2) connection of the EDS film to its power supply unit and (3) Interconnection of the power supply to PV modules or solar mirrors. Design, construction and assessment of field-testing units that have EDS stack laminated PV modules for evaluating the performance of the EDS films in solar fields is being carried out at BU. Our progress under this project, aimed at the advancement of EDS film technology, has reached DOE Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 6. Based on the extensive laboratory evaluations and limited field trials, as well as contacts with potential users, we believe that the technology has reached its commercial stage. We are conducting a cost analysis using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) System Advisory Model (SAM) and are preparing for field trials of EDS films in different solar fields in the US, Chile, India and in the Middle East. A brief description of EDS film performance, construction and testing of the field-test unit, autonomous operation of the field-test unit for evaluating EDS performance in increasing energy yield, associated revenue savings, and water conservation is presented.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2013

Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in the Climate System: a Scientific Assessment

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg/yr in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W/sq m with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27)W/sq m. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W/sq m. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W/sq m with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W/sq m. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W/sq m, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (0.50 to +1.08) W/sq m during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (0.06 W/sq m with 90% uncertainty bounds of 1.45 to +1.29 W/sq m). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

black carbon↗