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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ISRU Advanced Alkaline Electrolyzer (AAE) BAA

This is the one-page status update for the Game Changing Development (GCD) Advanced Alkaline Electrolyzer (AAE) Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) contract with Teledyne Energy Systems, Inc (TESI) to be presented at the fiscal year 2020 (FY20) GCD Annual Review. This activity to develop and demonstrate a contamination-tolerant liquid water electrolyzer for use in in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) applications to generate gaseous hydrogen and oxygen.

Electrolyzer↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Rotating Detonation Rocket Engine (RDRE)

This poster is a general description of Rotating Detonation Rocket Engine task under the GCD project. It includes a brief summary of accomplishments for FY20. The scope of this work is to develop computational tools and design rules for RDRE’s.

Computational Fluid Dynamics↗
NASA NTRS2021

Prediction of Safety Incidents

Crystal Ball is an application being developed that accesses multiple safety databases as a means to improve prediction of safety incidents. Year 1 was data integration, year 2 was predictive modeling, and then year 3(FY20), was the merging of those two prior year efforts into the final application, Crystal Ball (ssc.crystalball.insight.nasa.gov). Crystal Ball sits on the Insight platform (Insight is a NASA platform used to process, manage, integrate, analyze and visualize data at scale, insight.nasa.gov). InFY20, the project focus concentrated on the larger vision of Prediction of Safety Incidents using Crystal Ball as the data source. The Insight platform developer incorporated the predictive modeled data sets, and included a graphical user interface, resulting in a Dashboard for the Crystal Ball application; This application is a one-stop-shop for SMA employees working across data sets and provides a snapshot of current relative risk in different types of locations across the center. The ultimate goal is to have a tool that management can use to aid in decisions that are based on data already being collected. Ideally, the tool would highlight areas of increased risk for any given day. SMA will be conducting case studies to further refine the process of identifying higher areas of risk and potentially strategically direct resources where needed more. Our partners who leveraged funds for this project may consider use at other NASA organizations.

Kamili Shaw↗
NASA NTRS2021

Hydrocarbon Cold-Flow Simulation of LOX/LH2 Rocket Aerodynamics

In FY19, this project developed a test method which employed heated ethane in the physical simulation of rocket plume aerodynamics. Based on this work, EUS partnered with significant leveraged funding. A portable, self-contained test bed was also fabricated to support validation of the new method. In FY20, this project focused on the formal validation of ethane’s performance as an aerodynamic simulant as well as the development of the analytical and hardware infrastructure required to carry out that task. The test bed was activated, a series of heated-ethane tests on one or more rocket/diffuser configurations were conducted, and characterizations of the performance of the ethane simulation compared to hot-fire were performed. A series of 127 tests were conducted on 13 aerodynamic configurations to evaluate ethane’s performance as a simulant. It was found that the new methodology can reproduce rocket plume flow fields with +/- 0.5% pressure error at ~3% physical scale. The result is a cost-per-test reduction of ~99% compared to the hot-fire subscale testing typically used to obtain equivalent data. Some initial efforts have taken place, and future efforts are being planned with LaRC supersonic retro propulsion and MSFC SLS aerodynamics teams, which are interested in using the ethane system to wind-tunnel test human-rated Mars lander retrorockets and SLS Booster. Details of the prototypical experiments were published as NASA TM 2020-5009122,and have been presented in JANNAF Virtual Conference paper, "New Developments in Retro propulsion Testing for Mars Entry, Descent and Landing".

Daniel Jones↗
NASA NTRS2021

Lunar Auger Dryer ISRU (LADI) Breadboard Testing and Model Validation

In 2009, the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO)and Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite(LCROSS) provided definitive proof of water in the Lunar’s southern permanently shadowed region (PSR)[1]. Both the 2020 NASA Technology Taxonomy[2] and the Lunar Surface Innovation Initiative (LSII) team identified capability gaps in icy regolith transfer and reactor processing in Permanently Shadowed Region(PSR) environmental conditions. A screw conveyor dryer system operating from inside the PSR can continuously process water (and volatiles) for both breathable air and propellant. NASA’s Johnson Space Center (JSC) began development of a similar sub-system for Mars operation in 2017 and fabricated a unique breadboard test stand for validating the feasibility of this concept. This testing was postponed with the redirection of NASA’s mission from Mars to Moon. A JSC led trade study[3] in FY20 formulated a plan to leverage existing hardware to test concept feasibility, developed a lunar auger dryer sizing tool, and identified that both a physical flow and thermal model is required to develop an Engineering Development Unit (EDU) for environmental testing. Beginning in FY21, the Game Changing Development Program (GCDP) funded a three-year technology development project to increase the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of the Lunar Auger Dryer ISRU (LADI) subsystem to TRL 5.

Lunar↗
NASA NTRS2021

Lunar Auger Dryer ISRU (LADI) Breadboard Testing and Model Validation

In 2009, the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO)and Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite(LCROSS) provided definitive proof of water in the Lunar’s southern permanently shadowed region (PSR)[1]. Both the 2020 NASA Technology Taxonomy[2] and the Lunar Surface Innovation Initiative (LSII) team identified capability gaps in icy regolith transfer and reactor processing in Permanently Shadowed Region(PSR) environmental conditions. A screw conveyor dryer system operating from inside the PSR can continuously process water (and volatiles) for both breathable air and propellant. NASA’s Johnson Space Center (JSC) began development of a similar sub-system for Mars operation in 2017 and fabricated a unique breadboard test stand for validating the feasibility of this concept. This testing was postponed with the redirection of NASA’s mission from Mars to Moon. A JSC led trade study[3] in FY20 formulated a plan to leverage existing hardware to test concept feasibility, developed a lunar auger dryer sizing tool, and identified that both a physical flow and thermal model is required to develop an Engineering Development Unit (EDU) for environmental testing. Beginning in FY21, the Game Changing Development Program (GCDP) funded a three-year technology development project to increase the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of the Lunar Auger Dryer ISRU (LADI) subsystem to TRL 5.

Lunar↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Outer Planet Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM) Upgrades

Introduction: The Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM) is one of the most widely used engineering models of planetary atmospheres. The GRAM upgrades are being developed by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and NASA Langley Research Center. This presentation will provide details regarding the upgrades to the existing GRAMs, the development of new GRAMs, and the ongoing objectives, tasks, and milestones related to the GRAM upgrades funded by the NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD). GRAM: The GRAMs are engineering-oriented atmospheric models that estimate mean values and statistical variations of the atmospheric properties for numerous planetary destinations. They provide mean values and variability for any point in the atmosphere as well as seasonal, geographic, and altitude variations. GRAM outputs include atmospheric density, temperature, pressure, winds, and chemical composition along a user-defined path. They are extensively used by the engineering community because of their ability to create realistic dispersions. GRAMs have been integrated into high fidelity flight dynamic simulations of launch, entry, descent and landing (EDL), aerobraking and aerocapture. GRAMs are currently available for Earth, Mars, Venus, Neptune, Titan, and Uranus. Outer Planet GRAM Upgrade Status: Code Modernization. The outer planet GRAMs have been rearchitected from Fortran to a common object-oriented C++ framework called the GRAM Suite. This new architecture creates a common GRAM library of data models and utilities. The first C++ releases of the rearchitected legacy outer planet GRAMs (Neptune and Titan-GRAM) are straight conversions from the latest Fortran version. Model Upgrades. The focus of the model upgrade task is to improve the atmosphere models in the existing GRAMs and to establish a foundation for developing GRAMs for additional destinations. The GRAM ephemeris has been upgraded to the NASA Navigation and Ancillary Information Facility (NAIF) SPICE toolkit (version N0066). The calculation of the speed of sound has also been improved in the GRAMs. In FY20, the GRAM project established a contract with Hampton University to develop empirical global models for Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and Titan. Upgraded Outer Planet GRAM Releases. GRAM Suite Version 1.0 was released in May 2020 and contains the rearchitected Neptune-GRAM, including the common GRAM framework and planet–specific code. GRAM Suite Version 1.1 was released in September 2020 and added the rearchitected Titan-GRAM to the GRAM Suite. A User Guide and Programmer’s Manual are released with all GRAMs. New Outer Planet GRAM Releases. New GRAMs have been developed for Uranus and Jupiter. Uranus-GRAM is based on the NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) Uranus Atmospheric Model [1,2] and was released in GRAM Suite Version 1.2 in July 2021. Jupiter-GRAM is based on Galileo probe Atmospheric Structure Instrument (ASI) data from Seiff et al. [3] Saturn-GRAM is also under development. Both Jupiter and Saturn-GRAM will be released in future versions of the GRAM Suite. Conclusions: GRAMs are vital and frequently used toolsets. Releases of the GRAM Suite, upgrades of the existing planetary GRAMs, and development of new planetary GRAMs are ongoing. Titan-GRAM atmosphere model upgrades will be included in the next phase of GRAM tasks. References: [1] Allen Jr., G.A. et al. (2014) 11th International Planetary Probe Workshop, Abstract #8023. [2] Allen Jr., G.A. et al. (2014) Workshop on the Study of the Ice Giant Planets, Abstract #2001. [3] Seiff, A. et al. (1998) JGR, 103, 22,857 -22,889. Acknowledgments: The authors gratefully acknowledge support from the NASA SMD.

atmospheric models↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Venus-GRAM) Upgrades

Introduction: The Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Venus-GRAM) is one of the most widely used engineering models of Venus’ atmosphere. The Venus-GRAM upgrades are being developed by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). This presentation will provide details regarding the upgrades that have been made to Venus-GRAM and the ongoing objectives, tasks, and milestones related to the GRAM upgrades funded by the NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD). Venus-GRAM: Venus-GRAM is an engineering-oriented atmospheric model that estimates mean values and statistical variations of the atmospheric properties of Venus. Venus-GRAM provides mean values and variability for any point in the atmosphere as well as seasonal, geographic, and altitude variations. Venus-GRAM outputs include atmospheric density, temperature, pressure, winds, and chemical composition along a user-defined path. It is extensively used by the engineering community because of its ability to create realistic dispersions. GRAMs have been integrated into high fidelity flight dynamic simulations of launch, entry, descent and landing (EDL), aerobraking and aerocapture. GRAMs are currently available for Earth, Mars, Venus, Neptune, Titan, and Uranus. The lower atmosphere model in Venus-GRAM (up to 250 km) is based on the Venus International Reference Atmosphere (VIRA) [1]. The Venus-GRAM thermosphere (250 to 1000 km) is based on a MSFC-developed model [2] which assumes an isothermal temperature profile initialized using VIRA conditions at 250 km [3]. The VIRA version included in Venus-GRAM includes Pioneer Venus Orbiter and Probe data as well as Venera probe data, but it does not include a solid planet model or a high-resolution gravity model [4]. Venus-GRAM Upgrade Status: Code Modernization. Venus-GRAM has been rearchitected from Fortran to a common object-oriented C++ framework called the GRAM Suite. This new architecture creates a common GRAM library of data models and utilities. The first C++ release of the rearchitected Venus-GRAM is a straight conversion from the latest Fortran version. Model Upgrades. The focus of the model upgrade task is to improve the atmosphere models in the existing GRAMs and to establish a foundation for developing GRAMs for additional destinations. The GRAM ephemeris has been upgraded to the NASA Navigation and Ancillary Information Facility (NAIF) SPICE toolkit (version N0066). The calculation of the speed of sound has also been improved in the GRAMs. In FY20, the GRAM project established contracts to improve the model data within Venus-GRAM. Hampton University is developing an empirical global model for Venus. The University of Wisconsin is reanalyzing the Venus Express radio occultation observations and analyzing the Akatsuki thermal imaging data. Upgraded Venus-GRAM Release. GRAM Suite Version 1.3 will be released in September 2021 and will contain the rearchitected Venus-GRAM, including the common GRAM framework and planet–specific code. A User Guide and Programmer’s Manual are released with all GRAMs. Conclusions: GRAMs are frequently used toolsets and vital in assessing effects of atmospheres on interplanetary spacecraft during the program life cycle process. Releases of the GRAM Suite, upgrades of the existing planetary GRAMs, and development of new planetary GRAMs are ongoing. Venus-GRAM atmosphere model upgrades will be included in the next phase of GRAM tasks. References: [1] Kliore, A. J. et al. (1985) ASR, 5, 11, 1-304. [2] Justh, H. L. et al. (2006) AIAA/AAS Astrodynamics Specialist Conference & Exhibit, Abstract AIAA-2006-6394. [3] Guide to Reference and Standard Atmosphere Models, BSR/AIAA G-003-2010. [4] Limaye, S. S. (2012), LPSC VEXAG Townhall Meeting. Acknowledgments: The authors gratefully acknowledge support from the NASA SMD.

atmospheric models↗
NASA NTRS2022

Information Fusion and Data Analytics for Human Lunar Exploration (CIF REPORT: Detailed PI Write-up)

The Information Fusion & Data Analytics (IFDA) project commenced in FY20, continued through FY21, and its final platform development phase continues in FY22. The objective remains the fusion and rapid accessibility of large quantities of disparate sourced human spaceflight data. IFDA is a platform tailored for NA (S&MA) to develop highly advanced operational data integration and analysis techniques. IFDA leverages the JSC ER7 modeling, simulation,and data fusion capabilities to collect, warehouse, and augment data human exploration data integration and analysis techniques. The IFDA project’s integrated data visualizations have been demonstrated in two validation scenarios in FY21, and provided the architecture and platform basis for development of a full-scale data analysis suite and storage solution useful to all JSC organizations engaged in real time operations and safety tasks. Scenarioand prototypical development including the construction of a full scale data analysis suite and storage solution, useful to all JSC organizations engaged in real time operations and safety tasks, is central to IFDA Phase 3 and provides a demonstrable pathway for the Digital Transformation Program. IFDA Phase 3 is focused on data provider, data utilizer, and SME hands-on workshops that will conclude the Dem / Valphase and deliver a program-ready data integration tool as a product.

information fusion↗
NASA NTRS2022

Characterization of Lunar Polar Volatiles for Curation and ISRU - Executive Summary

The goal of this project is to support lunar exploration by simulating and characterizing ice and volatile-rich materials expected to be found at the lunar poles. These materials are highly sensitive to heating, which could significantly alter their composition and prevent scientific studies on lunar samples. During FY19, we obtained materials for and designed a simulated lunar environment, within which volatile-rich simulant could be made. We also refined the procedure for moderate-fidelity lunar simulants at cryogenic temperatures. In FY20, we completed our test setup, and we can now reach cryogenic temperatures and near-lunar pressures with active compositional monitoring of volatiles in the vapor phase. For FY21, we: 1) progressed towards developing sample storage temperature requirements for volatile-rich samples by completing storage testing, along with materials testing for Artemis geologic sampling, 2) obtained instrumentation for solid sample monitoring to characterize solid species, and 3) progressed towards water extraction testing for ISRU. Our test results will directly feed into Artemis science requirements, hardware designs for sample return, vehicle requirements (HLS, Gateway, Orion), and operations planning for lunar exploration activities.

Julie L Mitchell↗
NASA NTRS2020

NASA Quality Assurance in an MBSE world

Over the past decade or so, the emergence of Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) has demonstrated its desirability and value in terms of 1) being a single source of truth, 2) unambiguous definitions and relationships, and 3) after representation, the ability to explore/extract any sets of data on demand. While much work has been done in showing the value to the system engineering discipline in these areas, how does that value translate to the Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) world? This paper provides a vision of a very desirable future of NASA S&MA after it is fully integrated into the MBSE framework. We explore the impact and consequences of the MBSE Value items discussed above and how they impact the disciplines of quality assurance, reliability and maintainability, system safety, and software assurance. We provide insight into how the MBSE modeling tools can be used to define S&MA processes (ideally as a result of Use Case [1] elaboration of processes represented in MagicDraw®), produce S&MA products (ViewEditor output of various items), and represent S&MA disciplines (S&MA inside of MagicDraw). We also provide insight into the degree to which some elements can be directly integrated into a SysML® model and when, as often happens, an interface to some external source must be provided. The desirability of this future is part of the reason for the NASA Office of Safety and Mission Assurance’s (OSMA) recent creation of a Model Based Mission Assurance (MBMA) Program [2] and the MBMA annual workshops. We briefly summarize the efforts to date to generate S&MA Use Cases for eventual deployment into pilot and project efforts. Even simple use of the SysML modeling tools can be used to capture quality assurance tasks and integrate them with the systems engineering and produce products that are easy to use by quality practitioners that are unfamiliar with these methods. We anticipate finding opportunities to pilot and implement various Quality Assurance (QA) Use Cases in FY20. The MBMA Program is focused on implementation; the NASA Office of the Chief Engineer's Community of Practice, as well as the SmallSat communities, are very interested in the integration of S&MA. Finally, as projects move forward utilizing whatever efficiency increases they can find in a cost-constrained environment, the S&MA community cannot be caught unawares and needs to continue preparing for the ever-growing implementation of MBSE across NASA and our government and commercial partners.

Evans, John W↗
NASA NTRS2022

Lunar Auger Dryer ISRU (LADI) Mechanical Testing and Supporting Models

In 2009, the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) and Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) provided definitive proof of water in the Lunar’s southern permanently shadowed region (PSR). Both the 2020 NASA Technology Taxonomy and the Lunar Surface Innovation Initiative (LSII) team identified capability gaps in icy regolith transfer and reactor processing in Permanently Shad-owed Region (PSR) environmental conditions. A water processing plant operating from inside the PSR can continuously process water (and volatiles) for both breathable air and propellant. NASA’s Johnson Space Center (JSC) began development of the primary sub-system for a Mars plant in 2017 and fabricated a unique breadboard test stand for validating the feasibility of this concept. This testing was postponed with the redirection of NASA’s mission from Mars to Moon. A JSC led trade study in FY20 formulated a plan to leverage existing hardware to test concept feasibility, developed a lunar auger dryer sizing tool, and identified that both physical flow and thermal models are required to develop an Engineering Development Unit (EDU) for environmental testing. Beginning in FY21, the Game Changing Development Program (GCDP) funded a three-year technology development project to increase the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of the Lunar Auger Dryer ISRU (LADI) subsystem to TRL 5.

Lunar↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Overview of Commercial High-Speed Market Studies

Set of charts summarizing results of two contracts executed during FY20-21 examining economic viability of and barriers/challenges related to high-speed commercial travel.

Jeffrey S Robinson↗
NASA NTRS2022

Information Fusion & Analytics for Human Lunar Exploration

The Information Fusion & Data Analytics (IFDA) project commenced in FY20, continued through FY21, and its final platform development phase continues in FY22. The objective remains the fusion and rapid accessibility of large quantities of disparate sourced human spaceflight data. IFDA is a platform tailored for NA (S&MA) to develop highly advanced operational data integration and analysis techniques. IFDA leverages the JSC ER7 modeling, simulation,and data fusion capabilities to collect, warehouse, and augment data human exploration data integration and analysis techniques. The IFDA project’s integrated data visualizations have been demonstrated in two validation scenarios in FY21, and provided the architecture and platform basis for development of a full-scale data analysis suite and storage solution useful to all JSC organizations engaged in real time operations and safety tasks. Scenarioand prototypical development including the construction of a full scale data analysis suite and storage solution, useful to all JSC organizations engaged in real time operations and safety tasks, is central to IFDA Phase 3 and provides a demonstrable pathway for the Digital Transformation Program. IFDA Phase 3 is focused on data provider, data utilizer, and SME hands-on workshops that will conclude the Dem / Valphase and deliver a program-ready data integration tool as a product.

information fusion↗
NASA NTRS2024

Experimental Validation of Charged Lunar Dust Dynamics Simulants

The goal of this work is to experimentally verify the electrostatic interaction physics that have been incorporated into the discrete element method (DEM) modeling software package during the FY20 CIF project titled “Charged Particle Dynamics in the Lunar Environment.” Current state-of-the-art (SOA) granular gas dynamics models used to explain rocket plume impingement physics have not taken into account the natural or induced electrostatic environment of the lunar surface, nor the effect of charged regolith grains being present in the plume plasma. This work improved upon the SOA by adding long-range and contact inter-particle electrostatic interactions to a granular mechanics DEM modeling software package. Tribocharging mechanics between spherical particles has been experimentally examined along with the natural electrostatic plasma environments produced via emission from an electron gun and ultraviolet lamp.

Jay Phillips↗
DOE OSTI2020

HTGR Simulation Methods & International Collaborations

ART-GCR “Methods” activity is split between Experimental Validation data from the ANL NSTF and OSU HTTF (next three presentations). HTGR core simulation (this presentation). International collaboration within OECD Generation-IV (Gen-IV) and USA/Japan bi-lateral agreements (this presentation) HTGR Simulation Methods No new NE-52 funding for HTGR Methods support in FY20; ~$200K FY19 carry-over funds only. Consists of international code-to-code benchmarks (IAEA CRP on HTGR UAM and OECD/NEA MHTGR-350) and refinement of a few-group Pebble Bed Reactor (PBR) cross section (XS) generation methodology. Funding will be requested in FY21 to produce the final reports for the two benchmarks and continue the development of the PBR XS generation methodology. Additional (non-ART) HTGR-related support work at INL NEAMS: HTR-Application work package at INL Create a benchmark for the pebble shuffling and depletion algorithms being developed for NEAMS Griffin code. iFOA award with X-Energy: Develop independent Monte Carlo model of Xe-100 design. Independent design confirmatory analysis of Xe-100 design using NEAMS tools Griffin and Pronghorn. Support X-Energy design team to use their own legacy design tools (VSOP99 and MGT). Support NEAMS Griffin and Pronghorn development team for the iFOA needs (received $50K additional funding for required development).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification of Transition Scenario Simulations

This report documents the first collective attempt at developing and applying capabilities to quantify uncertainties, assess parametric sensitivities, and optimize multiple parameters and metrics in fuel cycle simulations generated by the SA&I Campaign. To do this, external codes that were designed to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification (SA&UQ) needed to be coupled to the SA&I Campaign’s nuclear fuel cycle simulators (NFCS). In FY20, two approaches were pursued: 1) coupling Cyclus to an ORNL-internal code called MOT (Metaheuristic Optimization Tool) and 2) coupling DYMOND to the opensource SA&UQ tool kit Dakota. The primary objective of having these NFCS/SA&UQ coupled capabilities is to better inform DOE-NE and other stakeholders on the results generated from the NFCS. For a given set of fuel cycle strategies, policies, and technology assumptions that make up a fuel cycle scenario, these NFCS have traditionally been used by the SA&I Campaign to provide quantitative answers in terms of year-by-year mass flows, infrastructure requirements, costs, etc. With these newly developed coupled capabilities, the SA&I Campaign can now efficiently simulate hundreds or thousands of these scenarios, sample large ranges of parameters and assumptions, and use the unique features of the SA&UQ tools to process the data. This enables providing answers with known and propagated uncertainties, determining the sensitivity of important metrics to different parameters and assumptions, quantifying how much fuel cycle and technology parameters impact each other, and producing optimized fuel cycle strategies for single and multiple variables. To demonstrate these new capabilities, the Cyclus/MOT was used to model several scenarios ranging from simple fleet retirements to transitions to advanced reactors. Specifically, for a transition scenario from LWRs to SFRs and advanced LWRs, uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, and optimization studies were applied to cases involving single and multiple parameter (input) and single and multiple metric (output) variations. In addition, a similar transition scenario was modeled to demonstrate how to optimize the reprocessing capacity parameter to minimize two performance metrics while taking into account uncertainties from two other parameters. Lastly, a depletion module based on SCALE/ORIGEN was added in Cyclus to simulate the third scenario that was designed to quantify the impact of the modeling assumption that all LWR used nuclear fuel have the same burnup. The newly developed DYMOND/Dakota capability was also applied to a transition scenario from the existing fleet to small modular reactors and fast reactors. This particular scenario involves not only explicit isotopic depletion via ORIGEN-2, but also includes multirecycling and utilizing the criticality search feature to determine the fresh fuel composition of recycled fuel, a feature unique to the DYMOND NFCS. A large database of simulations were run with 4 main parameters that were sampled: start date of reprocessing, reprocessing capacity, energy demand growth rate, and advanced reactor share of the fleet. The 4 main metrics were uranium consumption, enrichment requirements, waste generation, and levelized cost of electricity using data from the Cost Basis Report. The demonstrated SA&UQ results include those that inform on how to choose parameters to avoid “failed” scenarios, Sobol’ indices that inform on the importance of various parameters individually and synergistically, and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) studies that decompose parameter ranges into groups and informs on whether variations are statistically significant.

Feng, B.↗