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At least 235 records · Page 13

Estimating the Contributions to Human Error Probability from the Convolution of the Distribution of Time Available and Time Required

As part of their duties, Human Reliability Analysis must often evaluate if crews in nuclear power plants (NPPs) can complete tasks associated with a human-failure event within time limits. For example, the time required in NPP scenarios is determined by systematic and structured walkthroughs, feasibility studies, recorded times from training exercises, and interviews with experienced operators and experts. Typically, a point estimate is derived for the estimate (mean, maximum, or 95th percentile of time required). Using point-estimate values can mask the risk associated with variability among crews, plant conditions and set-up, environmental conditions, and other impact factors under which these actions are executed. While point estimates for time required and time available have served the industry well, without considering the uncertainty they could lead to biased understanding about the risk. The Integrated Human Event Analysis System - General Methodology (IDHEAS-G) model (developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC) for human error probability calculates human error probability by summing two probabilities: insufficient time and cognitive error. As such, the model takes a more holistic approach by considering the full distributions for time required and time available to calculate the human error probability because the time available to complete the task is insufficient. In this study, we expand on the work of the NRC and discuss methods for estimating these time considerations. For example, for the time required, the impact of Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) on the distribution was divided into impacts that are aleatory in nature, such as crew-to-crew variability, and those that are epistemic (i.e., the PIFs). Starting with the factors that introduce aleatory uncertainty, a first-order distribution was developed from a large set of time required (i.e., NPP task completion times) data for the range of operator actions that occur in the NPP control room under simulated accident conditions. The first-order distribution can then be adjusted to account for epistemic uncertainty using research associated with the impact of applicable PIFs on the time required. We also develop guidance for analysts to address the probability distributions for the time available. The guidance we developed on how to estimate time required and time available distributions is based on the identification of pertinent research and data, data analyses, and expert knowledge elicitation.

human error probability, human performance, time e↗

Proof-of-concept Talbot–Lau x-ray interferometry with a high-intensity, high-repetition-rate, laser-driven K-alpha source

Talbot–Lau x-ray interferometry is a grating-based phase-contrast technique, which enables measurement of refractive index changes in matter with micrometric spatial resolution. The technique has been established using a variety of hard x-ray sources, including synchrotron, free-electron lasers, and x-ray tubes, and could be used in the optical range for low-density plasmas. The tremendous development of table-top high-power lasers makes the use of high-intensity, laser-driven K-alpha sources appealing for Talbot–Lau interferometer applications in both high-energy-density plasma experiments and biological imaging. To this end, we present the first, to the best of our knowledge, feasibility study of Talbot–Lau phase-contrast imaging using a high-repetition-rate laser of moderate energy (100 mJ at a repetition rate of 10 Hz) to irradiate a copper backlighter foil. The results from up to 900 laser pulses were integrated to form interferometric images. A constant fringe contrast of 20% is demonstrated over 100 accumulations, while the signal-to-noise ratio continued to increase with the number of shots. Phase retrieval is demonstrated without prior ex-situ phase stepping. Instead, correlation matrices are used to compensate for the displacement between reference acquisition and the probing of a PMMA target rod. The steps for improved measurements with more energetic laser systems are discussed. The final results are in good agreement with the theoretically predicted outcomes, demonstrating the applicability of this diagnostic to a range of laser facilities for use across several disciplines.

Bouffetier, V. (ORCID:0000000160791260)↗

Selected advances in the accelerator design of the Future Circular Electron-Positron Collider (FCC-ee)

In autumn 2023, the FCC Feasibility Study underwent a crucial “mid-term review”. We describe some accelerator performance risks for the proposed future circular electron-positron collider, FCC-ee, identified for, and during, the mid-term review. For the collider rings, these are the collective effects when running on the Z resonance – especially resistive wall, beam-beam, and electron cloud –, the beam lifetime, dynamic aperture, alignment tolerances, and beam-based alignment. For the booster, the primary concern is the vacuum system, with regard to impedance and effects of the residual gas. For the injector, the layout and the linac repetition rate are primary considerations. We discuss the various issues and report the planned mitigations.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Integrated Energy System Investigation for the Eastman Chemical Company, Kingsport, TN Facility

The industrial manufacturing industry is looking to implement new methods of energy production to ensure a consistent energy supply while reducing economic costs and environmental impacts. Much of the manufacturing industry relies on fossil fuels—primarily coal and natural gas—of which there are finite resources subject to price volatility due to an inelastic demand. These resources also come with significant negative environmental impacts related to emissions. While complete independence from fossil fuels is not immediately realistic, options are available to significantly reduce dependency on fossil fuel supplies, including integrated energy systems (IESs) which tightly couple nuclear energy source generators with energy consumers (i.e., industrial factories) to fulfill power and energy requirements. Once realized, optimized IESs may yield significant economic and environmental benefits over traditionally isolated generator and consumer facilities. This report presents a feasibility study for siting an IES to meet the steam and electricity needs of Eastman Chemical Company’s facility in Kingsport, Tennessee. This study explored reactor technology options, evaluation,and optimization,with a focus on meeting the facility’s operational and reliability requirements. This work is part of an ongoing effort by Eastman to be good environmental stewards and meet the demands of their customers by shifting to more environmentally sustainable solutions for their energy needs. Outcomes of this report are also of general interest and value to any design or development team seeking to deploy an IES,as many topics described herein are generally applicable to any nuclear power facility.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integrated Energy System Investigation for the Eastman Chemical Company, Kingsport, Tennessee Facility

The industrial manufacturing industry is looking to implement new methods of energy production to ensure a consistent energy supply while reducing economic costs and environmental impacts. Much of the manufacturing industry relies on fossil fuels—primarily coal and natural gas—of which there are finite resources subject to price volatility due to an inelastic demand. These resources also come with significant negative environmental impacts related to emissions. While complete independence from fossil fuels is not immediately realistic, options are available to significantly reduce dependency on fossil fuel supplies, including integrated energy systems (IESs) which tightly couple nuclear energy source generators with energy consumers (i.e., industrial factories) to fulfill power and energy requirements. Once realized, optimized IESs may yield significant economic and environmental benefits over traditionally isolated generator and consumer facilities. This report presents a feasibility study for siting an IES to meet the steam and electricity needs of Eastman Chemical Company’s facility in Kingsport, Tennessee. This study explored reactor technology options, evaluation, and optimization, with a focus on meeting the facility’s operational and reliability requirements. This work is part of an ongoing effort by Eastman to be good environmental stewards and meet the demands of their customers by shifting to more environmentally sustainable solutions for their energy needs. Outcomes of this report are also of general interest and value to any design or development team seeking to deploy an IES, as many topics described herein are generally applicable to any nuclear power facility.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Ultra-Light Hybrid Composite Door Design, Manufacturing and Demonstration

New Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations require improved fuel efficiency of the future vehicle fleet. Weight reduction is key to achieving these targets. Replacing metallic body and chassis components with carbon fiber-reinforced composites offers the most weight reduction potential at up to 70%. Introduction of the BMW i3 and i8 in 2014 required mass production processes to meet 20,000+ units per year. Preforming with High Pressure Resin Transfer Molding has been implemented and meets rate, cost, and performance requirements. We will advance these technologies to develop an ultra-light driver’s side door for the vehicle with production rates of 40,000 units annually per plant in Detroit, Michigan. This project sought to employ a comprehensive systems approach for designing, manufacturing, and demonstrating an ultra-light hybrid composite automotive door. Composite structural components are integrated with other functional systems to reduce part count and full-system weight by a minimum of 42.5%. The approach will be demonstrated on a driver’s- side front door and will consider all fit, functional, safety, and cost requirements. These concepts will be evaluated using structural and crash simulations and linked to a manufacturing feasibility study, resulting in producible designs of an integrated door system. A cost model will evaluate part of the cost for the various designs and will ensure the cost target of less than $5 per pound of weight saved is met. Hybrid composites consisting of carbon, glass, and metal components will be included in our trade-off studies to satisfy these cost and performance goals.

02 PETROLEUM↗

A Systems Engineering Approach to Accident Response Planning

This paper explores the Systems Engineering structure, strategies and tools for real world scenarios involving work with accident response groups. A systems engineering approach must be taken by the technical teams to prepare for a successful response and design the technical systems in support of the operations. The scope of this project is focused on laying out the foundation of the systems engineering approach taken to help the teams develop an accident response strategy and identify new engineering designs in support of these operations for the black box systems. This Master’s project involves several interdisciplinary teams & stakeholders across different areas. Identifying the proper tools to use is key to addressing the big picture needs of the multiple stakeholders. This project explores some of the key tools used by the integrated team. The integrated project work will primarily take place over the course of 8 weeks via integrated team meetings. Other work in support of this project will take place off-line as needed by the project lead. Details on the prospective timeline, milestones, key dates and work scope can be referenced in other sections of this paper. Key systems engineering methodologies and tools used thus far in support of this project includes: 1) Market Surveys and Interviews, 2) Project Charter, 3) Feasibility Study, 4) Swim Lane Diagram, and 5) Knowledge Management Plan.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Addressing qubits with a software-defined radio FPGA (Full Technical Final Report)

Superconducting transmons can be configured as qubits and can also be used for weak signal axion searches. During a prior LDRD (17-ERD-006), a robust capability for system simulation and analysis, algorithm development, algorithm to FPGA workflow and experimental measurements was developed. During that project it was determined that a new software-defined radio FPGA would be a significant improvement in cost, simplicity, and software maintainability over the X6-1000M FPGA plus RF front-end system that had been used. In this Feasibility Study, we successfully developed the interface to the new NI USRP-2954R SDR platform, generated and optimized the VHDL of the existing algorithms, and experimentally tested the new FPGA system on real qubit in the laboratory. These tests showed it had the same SNR on weak measurements as the prior FPGA.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Basic Design Layout of a Modular Pumped Hydro Teaching Unit

This work was originally completed in July 2015 as a proposal to Santa Fe Community College (SFCC) for their engineering program and a follow up to a feasibility study completed for the Community College the year earlier as indicated below. The work was ahead of its time and funding was hard to obtain to implement a project. This work is now being formally released for distribution to a wider audience based on the evolving circumstances in greater society that now favor this approach with funding more readily available. Due to the distribution outside of SFCC, specific architectural drawing sets of the pertinent buildings called out in the design have been removed. No changes to the design have been made. The design layout utilizing a building is not meant to limit the implementation of the design. The elevation difference required may be obtained with a building, a small hill, jacking up the upper tank, or similar means. The design presented is a basic design, identifying major components and how they are connected together. The user may change components under their own liability. All local applicable codes and standards must be followed when building an actual unit, under the authority of a responsible engineer or owner. Appropriate measures must be followed to protect people from hazards such as electricity, water pressure, and general construction. A leak test to verify water tightness of the system should be conducted prior to any operations. The vision of this design is to allow a class of 10 to 15 students to construct the assembly within a month or so time period, and then learn to operate the assembly at their school location under the guidance of their instructor. This will allow the students to learn about the practical concept of storing electricity with water, and gain a hands on experience of the real world challenges faced with full Modular Pumped Hydro Projects.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

A Systems Engineering Approach to Accident Response Planning.

This paper explores the Systems Engineering structure, strategies and tools for real world scenarios involving work with accident response planning. A systems engineering approach must be taken by the technical teams to prepare for a successful response and design the technical systems in support of the operations. The scope of this project is focused on laying out the foundation of the systems engineering approach taken to help the teams develop an accident response strategy and identify new engineering designs in support of these operations for the black box systems. This Masters project involved several interdisciplinary teams & stakeholders. Identifying the proper tools to use was key to addressing the big picture needs of the multiple stakeholders. The integrated project work primarily took place over the course of eight weeks via integrated team meetings. Other work in support of this project was conducted off-line as needed by the project lead. Details on the prospective timeline, milestones, key dates and work scope can be referenced in this paper. Key systems engineering methodologies and tools used in support of this project included but is not limited to: Market Surveys and Interviews Project Charter Feasibility Study Swim Lane Diagram Knowledge Management Plan. A full suite of tools and the details regarding the application of these tools and results of this study is provided in this report.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Low-Energy Cooling for Electron Ion Collider

Luminosity parameters at the highest hadron energy in the Electron Ion Collider (EIC) require a proton beam with a small vertical emittance. Such a small emittance can be obtained using the technique of electron cooling, by pre-cooling of the proton bunches at an injection energy of 23:8 GeV. After pre-cooling, the proton bunches are accelerated to the maximum energy for collisions. Once at the top energy, such proton bunches can be refilled frequently to maintain a high average luminosity, or, alternatively, cooling at the top energy could be provided with relaxed requirements of just counteracting the emittance growth due to Intra-Beam Scattering (IBS) and thus maintaining the luminosity close to its initial peak value. Presently, several schemes of cooling at the top energy of 275 GeV are being considered with the goal to maintain the initial proton beam parameters, thus relying on pre-cooling at the low energy to obtain such initial parameters of proton bunches. For the lowest proton collision energy of 41 GeV in the EIC, there is a need for an electron cooler which counteracts the beam emittance growth due to IBS. This can be achieved by the same electron cooler which is used for cooling of protons at 23.8 GeV. In this case, we assume the electron cooler rst pre-cools protons at an injection energy of 23.8 GeV and then, after acceleration, cools the 41 GeV protons, counteracting IBS and maintaining the beam emittances. In this report, we summarize a feasibility study of an electron cooler that would be needed to cool protons at 23.8 GeV to obtain a small vertical emittance, as well as to counteract beam growth due to IBS for collisions at 41 GeV. The traditional electron cooling system employed at a typical low-energy cooler is based on an electron beam generated with an electrostatic electron gun in DC operating mode, immersed in a longitudinal magnetic field. To cool protons at 23.8 and 41 GeV, electron beam energies of 13.0 and 22.3MeV, respectively, are required. Due to the technical limitations of static high-voltage acceleration, these beam energies require RF acceleration of a pulsed electron beam. Electron cooling using RF-accelerated electron bunches was recently successfully commissioned in RHIC, allowing us to consider such an approach for EIC low-energy electron cooling.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Establishing an Early CO 2 Storage Complex in Kemper County, Mississippi (ECO 2 S) (CarbonSAFE Phase II, Final Report)

The CarbonSAFE Phase II: Storage Complex Feasibility project, entitled “Establishing an Early CO 2 Storage Complex in Kemper County, Mississippi: Project ECO 2 S,” demonstrates that the subsurface adjacent to the Kemper County energy facility can safely and permanently store commercial-scale volumes of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). Project ECO 2 S is led by the Southern States Energy Board (SSEB). Mississippi Power Company (MPC) serves as the site host. The project includes technical and field implementation support from Advanced Resources International (ARI) and obtains analytical support from two national laboratories (Los Alamos and Lawrence Berkeley), a host of universities, and other key participants. A 30,000-acre area of interest was established. Three new characterization wells were drilled to facilitate the detailed geologic analyses, characterization, and modeling of three prospective storage reservoirs. The results verify and validate that the subsurface reservoirs examined have gigatonne CO 2 storage potential. This final report documents the achievements of the project team in successfully attaining the goals and objectives set forth for the project and summarizes the results of the feasibility study.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

High-Performance/-Precision/-Z(HPPZ) Scintillator Grids via Advanced Electrochemistry. Phase I – Project # 20210572MFR- Mid year review [Slides]

Scintillation grids with improved imaging resolution in time and space, are required for future mission needs at various facilities (pRad user station, LANSCE, DARHT, Scorpius etc). Current technologies use inorganic crystal scintillators, which are positioned within a high-Z scintillator septa. Dense and high-Z materials are optimal for gamma-ray detection making them promising candidates for development of high -performance/-precision/-Z (HPPZ) scintillator grids. The current resolution of standard chemical etching and fabrication processes of high-Z materials is very low, leading to undesired undercutting and ultimately reducing crystal performance efficiency. Goals are to: Perform initial feasibility studies with the aim of producing complex parts for applications with difficult-to-process high-Z material; Use of pulse and pulse-reverse electrochemical methods on additive approaches to produce high-precision Au and Re scintillator grids at a small scale; and, Follow up in Phase II with the delivery of a large-scale scintillator grid of the best material candidate with unprecedented properties for LANL needs determined in Phase I.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

New experimental approach to understanding the chemical reactivity of oxide surfaces

Metal oxides have been an attractive option for a range of applications, including hydrogen sensors, microelectronics, and catalysis, due to their reactivity and tunability. The properties of metal oxides can vary greatly on their precise surface structure; however, few surface science techniques can achieve atomistic-level determinations of surface structure, and fewer yet can do so for insulator surfaces. Low energy ion beam analysis offers a potential insulator-compatible solution to characterizing the surface structure of metal oxides. As a feasibility study, we apply low energy ion beam analysis to investigate the surface structure of a magnetite single crystal, Fe 3 O 4 (100). We obtain multi-angle maps using both forward-scattering low energy ion scattering (LEIS) and backscattering impact-collision ion scattering spectroscopy (ICISS). Both sets of experimental maps have intensity patterns that reflect the symmetries of the Fe 3 O 4 (100) surface structure. However, analytical interpretation of these intensity patterns to extract details of the surface structure is significantly more complex than previous LEIS and ICISS structural studies of one-component metal crystals, which had far more symmetries to exploit. To gain further insight into the surface structure, we model our experimental measurements with ion-trajectory tracing simulations using molecular dynamics. Our simulations provide a qualitative indication that our experimental measurements agree better with a subsurface cation vacancy model than a distorted bulk model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evaluation of Time-Series Gap-Filling Methods for Solar Irradiance Applications

A complete solar resource data set is essential for any stage of a solar energy project - from feasibility studies to daily operations. But measured or modeled solar resource data are prone to data gaps and data quality issues. To mitigate these issues, a data imputation process should be implemented to obtain a complete and reliable temporal and spatial data series. This study focused on imputing temporal scales by applying random and artificial data gaps and then implementing eight imputation methods, including the Kalman filtering and smoothing and stine interpolations. These methods were implemented on 1-minute to half hourly irradiance data for 1 year using a few locations from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) and ground measurement data set. The results demonstrated that some of the simpler methods, such as the stine and linear interpolation methods, were the relatively best models based on the statistical metrics for imputing NSRDB and ground measurement data, respectively.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Costs and Feasibility of Floating Offshore Wind Energy in the O'ahu Region

The State of Hawai'i has set a target to achieve a 100% Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) by 2045, and is well suited to become the first state to achieve this goal due to its relatively small load, high electricity prices, heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, and favorable conditions for wind and solar. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management contracted NREL to conduct a cost and feasibility study to provide information to decision makers on Hawai'i about the viability of floating offshore wind to be a part of the 100% RPS. We used NREL's Offshore Regional Cost Analyzer (ORCA) spatial cost model to evaluate the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) in the region surrounding O'ahu as this is the island with the highest energy demand. The ORCA results showed that LCOE could range from around $\$$83 MWh to $\$$194 MWh for commercial operation dates in 2019 but has the potential to decrease to $\$$48 MWh - $\$$109 MWh by 2032 due to maturing global supply chains, increasing turbine rating, and new technological innovations. These costs are expected to be competitive with global floating wind costs in the early 2030s. The strong wind resource, proximity to infrastructure on land, and benign metocean conditions can potentially compensate for the logistical complexities of installing projects in Hawai'i far from mainland supply chains if sufficient investments are made to develop ports, grid infrastructure, and workforce on O'ahu to support the construction and operation of offshore wind projects. In addition to the cost results, this report also discusses the likely technologies that would comprise floating wind projects near O'ahu, the existing infrastructure available to projects, unique conditions facing offshore wind in the region such as exposure to hurricanes and limits on allowable export cable capacity, newly developed wind resource data sets for the region, and local stakeholder perspectives on offshore wind.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Fiber optic system for direct detection of CO2 leakage in carbon storage wells

The feasibility study focused on the development of new fiber for distributed chemical sensing (DCS) that will allow direct detection of CO 2 leakages in the environment. This is particularly important for monitoring well integrity for carbon capture and storage (CSS), to provide early warning for an incoming well failure and potential CO 2 leaking through it. We proposed Raman or IR interrogation within gas-filled Holey Fibers (HoFs) interleaved with standard solid core fibers and Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) sections, so that the location and concentration of the gases would be provided simultaneously by means of reflectometry. The methodology would overcome current roadblocks to using fiber optics for CO 2 (and other gases) detection in wells with direct in-situ measurements of concentration along with other important parameters such as temperature and pressure as the baseline of environment background.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Dynamic Polymer Networks for On Demand Degradable Adhesives, Scaffolds, and Templates (Full Technical Report)

This feasibility study was motivated by a need for alternative mandrel materials to meet the next generation of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) ablator capsules. In response, a new polymer material based on reversible covalent bonds was proposed, with the objective to design thermosets to withstand elevated temperatures (140-200 degrees Celsius) while also being thermally degradable on-demand via controlled decomposition at temperatures above 200 degrees Celsius. A series of cyclopentadiene (Cp) containing thermosets were designed and synthesized to evaluate curing, reversibility and degradability via controlled retro-Diels Alder reactions using Cp-cycloaddition adducts as crosslinks. Ultimately, the current iteration of materials and strategy pursued in this study was assessed as impractical for meeting the needs and objectives of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s (LLNL) target fabrication program.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗