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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Extreme Weather Events and PV Systems Impact

The impact of extreme weather events on PV performance was studied by comparing the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration database on severe weather with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) PV Fleet database on continuous PV performance. We identified 170 systems that were immediately impacted by weather events. These severe weather events lead to a median loss of only 1 % of annual production. However, flooding and high wind events were found to have an extremely long tail extending to 60 % loss, showing that these discrete events can pose a substantial risk to PV systems. Besides the short-term impact of lost production due to outages, we also found a statistically significant increased performance loss rate (PLR) for high wind events above 90 kilometer/hour, by comparing PLR before and after these events. Similarly, hail events caused higher PLR for hail sizes of and above 25 mm indicating that more stringent hail testing for PV modules is required. In addition, very high snow loads may also cause increased PLRs, but more data are required to better quantify the impact. These findings illustrate the substantial risk extreme weather events pose short-and long-term to fielded PV installations.

extreme weather↗
DOE OSTI2025

Metalized Polymer Current Collector for High-Energy Lithium-Ion Batteries with Extreme Fast-Charging Capability

Electric vehicles are pivotal in the global shift toward decarbonizing road transport, with lithium-ion batteries at the heart of this technological evolution. However, the pursuit of batteries capable of extremely fast charging that also satisfy high energy and safety criteria, poses a significant challenge to current lithium-ion batteries technologies. Additionally, the increasing demand for aluminum (Al) and copper (Cu) in electrification, solar energy technologies, and vehicle light-eighting is driving these metals toward near-critical status in the medium term. This study introduces metalized polythylene terephthalate (mPET) polymer films by depositing an Al or Cu thin layer onto two sides of a polyethylene terephthalate film—named mPET/Al and mPET/Cu, as lightweight, cost-effective alternatives to traditional metal current collectors in lithium-ion batteries. We have fabricated current collectors that significantly reduce weight (by 73%), thickness (by 33%), and cost (by 85%) compared with traditional metal foil counterparts. These advancements have the potential to enhance energy density to 280 Wh kg -1 at the electrode level under 10-min charging at 6 C. Through testing, including a novel extremely fast charging protocol across various C-rates and long-term cycling (up to 1000 cycles) in different cell configurations, the superior performance of these metalized polymer films has been demonstrated. Notably, mPET/Cu and mPET/Al films exhibited comparable capacities to conventional cells under extremely fast charging, with the mPET cells showing a 27% improvement in energy density at 6 C and maintaining significant energy density after 1000 cycles. This study underscores the potential of mPET films to revolutionize the roll-to-roll battery manufacturing process and significantly advance the performance metrics of lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Implications of Changes in Water Stress and Precipitation Extremes for Cocoa Production in Côte D'ivoire and Ghana

ABSTRACT Climate change induces high variability in drought patterns and extreme precipitation indices in rainfed cocoa farming, impacting cocoa production. This study evaluated water stress, meteorological and agricultural drought conditions, and critical extreme precipitation indices in the world's two largest cocoa‐producing nations from 1981 to 2022. The results revealed a significant reduction in total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT), in the last three decades, with the greatest decline in the 1991–2000 and 2011–2022 periods. Ghana experienced the most significant reduction up to 15% (200 mm/year) in the last decade, attributed to a substantial decrease in wet days number (RR1) up to 25 days per year, a reduction in maximum consecutive wet days (CWD) up to 6 days per year, and an increase in maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) up to 15 days per year. Moreover, there was a notable decline in the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), with reductions of up to 4 mm/day in certain areas, contributing to increased drought frequency, severity, and duration. In the most recent decade (2011–2022), particularly during the extremely dry years of 2013 and 2015, cocoa‐growing regions in Ghana (GHA) and eastern Côte d'Ivoire (CIV) experienced prolonged agricultural drought expressed by soil moisture deficit, typically extending from May to September. Additionally, large portions of central and eastern Ghana, as well as northeastern Côte d'Ivoire experienced sustained water stress, with over three consecutive months of total monthly precipitation falling below 100 mm, negatively impacting cocoa productivity. The decrease in the yield in the range of 2.5% to 37% was noted in the dry years and the following years, varying according to the country depending on the severity of the drought. Sensitivity analysis highlights cocoa yield's responsiveness to drought and water stress, particularly in specific years when water stress occurred, such as 1984,1985, 1989, 1995, 1999, 2000, and 2008. Considering the observed trends in precipitation patterns and their impact on cocoa production, it is crucial to acknowledge the inherent uncertainty of future precipitation patterns due to climate change. To address this challenge effectively, our study underscores the importance of identifying and closely monitoring regions currently facing water stress, as determined by precipitation and drought indicators. Over the analysed period (1981–2022), we have noted shifts in the distribution of water‐stressed areas, highlighting the dynamic nature of this issue. Consequently, we advocate for a targeted approach to implement cocoa supplementary irrigation in consistently water‐stressed regions.

Obahoundje, Salomon [International Water Managemen↗
DOE OSTI2025

Algorithmic construction of SSA-compatible extreme rays of the subadditivity cone and the N = 6 solution

We compute the set of all extreme rays of the 6-party subadditivity cone that are compatible with strong subadditivity. In total, we identify 208 new (genuine 6-party) orbits, 52 of which violate at least one known holographic entropy inequality. For the remaining 156 orbits, which do not violate any such inequalities, we construct holographic graph models for 150 of them. For the final 6 orbits, it remains an open question whether they are holographic. Consistent with the strong form of the conjecture in [1], 148 of these graph models are trees. However, 2 of the graphs contain a “bulk cycle”, leaving open the question of whether equivalent models with tree topology exist, or if these extreme rays are counterexamples to the conjecture. The paper includes a detailed description of the algorithm used for the computation, which is presented in a general framework and can be applied to any situation involving a polyhedral cone defined by a set of linear inequalities and a partial order among them to find extreme rays corresponding to down-sets in this poset.

AdS-CFT correspondence↗
DOE OSTI2021

Complexity and near extremal charged black branes

Highlights: • Trying to explore a remedy to overcome the puzzle in holographic complexity by assuming a cutoff behind the horizon and the corresponding boundary term. • Holographic complexity growth obtained by the WDW patch on shell action is insensitive to the UV cutoff at the late time. Therefore one may conclude that either on shell action does not compute complexity, or the late time is not given by the physical charges, or in our computations we have missed something! • We find that one needs to carefully compute on shell action taking into account the behind the horizon and the corresponding boundary term. Doing so, one arrives at a consistent picture. • We check this consistency by evaluating the late time complexity growth for near horizon limit of the near extremal black hole using two different methods. We would have obtained non-consistent picture, if we had not considered the behind the horizon cutoff as well as the corresponding boundary term. We compute holographic complexity of charged black brane solutions in arbitrary dimensions for the near horizon limit of near extremal case using two different methods. The corresponding complexity may be obtained either by taking the limit from the complexity of the charged black brane, or by computing the complexity for near horizon limit of near extremal solution. One observes that these results coincide if one assumes to have a cutoff behind horizon whose value is fixed by UV cutoff and also taking into account a proper counterterm evaluated on this cutoff. We also consider the situation for Vaidya charged black branes too.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Extreme events, energy security and equality through micro- and macro-levels: Concepts, challenges and methods

Low-income households face long-standing challenges of energy insecurity and inequality (EII). During extreme events (e.g., disasters and pandemics) these challenges are especially severe for vulnerable populations reliant on energy for health, education, and well-being. However, many EII studies rarely incorporate the micro- and macro-perspectives of resilience and reliability of energy and internet infrastructure and social-psychological factors. To remedy this gap, we first address the impacts of extreme events on EII among vulnerable populations. Second, we evaluate the driving factors of EII and how they change during disasters. Third, we situate these inequalities within broader energy systems and pinpoint the importance of equitable infrastructure systems by examining infrastructure reliability and resilience and the role of renewable technologies. Then, we consider the factors influencing energy consumption, such as energy practices, socio-psychological factors, and internet access. Finally, we propose interdisciplinary research methods to study these issues during extreme events and provide recommendations.

Chen, CF↗
DOE OSTI2024

Diamond under extremes

Diamond is, by virtue of the covalent bonding between atoms and the very strong carbon to carbon bonds, the hardest natural material. It has been a fascinating material since its discovery, first as a decorative gem and more recently, for its numerous industrial uses because of its extreme hardness, elastic modulus, and optical transparency. In recent years, it has become a preferred ablator for laser shock experiments, and this has led to its choice as the capsule material for fusion experiments at the National Ignition Facility. Further, this review covers both experimental and computational (including machine learning) advancements in research on diamond subjected extreme conditions of temperature and pressure. The synergy between shock and ramp loading experiments and atomic level simulations is proving to be powerful in advancing our understanding of diamond under extremes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Depth-Dependent Understanding of Cathode Electrolyte Interphase (CEI) on the Layered Li-Ion Cathodes Operated at Extreme High Temperature

The high-temperature operation of Li-ion batteries is highly dependent on the stability of the cathode electrolyte interphase (CEI) formed during lithiation-delithiation reactions. However, knowledge on the nature of the CEI is limited and its stability under extreme temperatures is not well understood. Therefore, herein, we investigate a proof-of-concept study on stabilizing CEI on model LiNi 0.33 Mn 0.33 Co 0.33 O 2 (NMC333) at extreme operation condition of 100 oC using thermally stable pyrrolidinium based ionic liquid electrolyte. The electrochemical lithiation-delithiation reactions at 100 oC and the CEI evolution upon different cycling conditions are investigated. Further, the depth-dependent CEI chemistry was investigated using energy tunable synchrotron-based hard X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (HAXPES). Overall, the results reveal that the high temperature operation accelerated the CEI formation compared to room temperature, and the surface of the interphase layer is rich in boron-based inorganic moieties than the deeper surface. Further, bulk sensitive X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) was used to investigate the transition metal redox contributors during high temperature electrochemical reactions, similar to room temperature, the Ni2+/4+redox couple is the only charge compensating redox couple during high temperature operation. Finally, the physical nature of the conformal CEI on the cathode particles was visualized with high-resolution transmission electron microscopy, which confirms that the significant degradation of cathode particles without conformal CEI is due to the transformation of layer to spinel formation at extreme temperature. In this study, understanding this high temperature interfacial chemistry of NMC cathodes through advanced spectroscopy and microscopy will shed light on transforming ambient temperature Li-ion chemistry to high temperature applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Topology-Dependent Polymer Stretching and Scission in Solution at Extreme Shear Rates

There has been significant interest in the engineering of polymer topology to control rheology and mechanical stability in dilute solutions for applications involving extreme shear rate flows. However, methods to experimentally probe properties at relevant shear rates (≈ 10 4 –10 6 s –1 ) have remained ex situ, obscuring access to measures of polymer deformation and rheology that would otherwise provide mechanistic insight into the topology-dependent properties that control their behavior in extreme shear flows. In this study, we used novel in situ small angle neutron scattering measurements in a capillary rheometer (capillary rheo-SANS) to simultaneously measure solution viscosities and polymer deformations in high shear on a series of chemically homologous topology-defined polymers including linear, randomly branched, and star-shaped molecules. We demonstrate that differences in the onset of chain stretching and shear thinning of these polymers in dilute solution are controlled primarily by differences in their molecular relaxation time. These differences correlate with differences in chain scission inferred from ex situ measurements at more extreme shear rates. Together, the results demonstrate a direct coupling between chain deformation and scission, and suggest that the dominant effect of branching as a means to impart resilience against mechanical degradation is through differences in relaxation dynamics due to branching. We anticipate that these results will provide key insights to engineer topology-controlled polymers for rheological modification, mechanical stability, and controlled mechano-chemistry.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global Microphysical Sensitivity of Superparameterized Precipitation Extremes

Abstract A recent study found statistically significant differences in extreme precipitation distributions over the contiguous United States (CONUS) when changing the microphysics scheme in a superparameterized global climate model. Here, we repeat the analysis globally and similarly find that differences are widespread when varying the number of predicted moments in the microphysics parameterization, but not when comparing variants of the double‐moment scheme. However, contrary to the previous study in which differences largely disappeared over CONUS when 5‐day simulations were conducted, we found that the signal in these shorter integrations remains within the tropics, implying a direct local effect of microphysics on precipitation extremes in these regions. The effect on precipitation is traced back to changes in vertical velocity profiles changes that are then amplified in the climatological simulations compared to the 5‐day ones. Finally, the superparameterized extremes, regardless of the microphysics scheme, are shown to be larger than those from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project One‐Degree Daily data set and generally smaller than those from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 data set.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extreme Water Vapor Transport During the March 2021 Sydney Floods in the Context of Climate Projections

During March 2021, large regions of Eastern Australia experienced prolonged heavy rainfall and extensive flooding. The maximum daily mean column integrated water vapor transport (IVT) over Sydney during this event was within the top 0.3% of all days since 1980, and the 10-day mean IVT was in the top 0.2%. Here, in this study, we have examined the change in frequency of extreme IVT events over Sydney in 16 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). Generalized Extreme Value modeling was used to further analyze the change in frequency of extreme IVT events. We found the probability of long duration high IVT events is projected to increase by 80% at the end of the century, but the future change in IVT is correlated to the rate of global and regional warming in each model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Emergent Constrained Projections of Mean and Extreme Warming in China

Reliable regional temperature projections including heat extremes are essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Taking China as an example, simple averages from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models project high warming due to sampling many high climate sensitivities in the ensemble. Here, we develop an emergent constraint (EC) framework to obtain constrained mean and daily maximum temperature (TXx) warming over China by using observed global warming and local residual warming. The constrained annual mean and TXx warming over China (2.33°C [1.61–3.05°C] and 2.31°C [1.21–2.99°C]) are 0.65°C [0.04–1.76°C] and 0.63°C [–0.50–2.39°C], respectively, lower than raw projections (2.98°C [1.85–4.22°C] and 2.94°C [2.04–4.39°C]) for 2080–2099 under the intermediate-emission scenario. Approximately half model uncertainty is reduced after constraint. The land area (population) experiencing temperature extremes in our metric is 78% (85%) of the raw projections. Our results imply a lower impact of extreme heat than implied by current raw CMIP6 projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

ENSO Diversity and the Simulation of Its Teleconnections to Winter Precipitation Extremes Over the US in High Resolution Earth System Models

Abstract Accounting for the diversity in El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)'s spatial pattern, with the novel ENSO longitudinal index (ELI), we evaluate the simulation of its teleconnections to US winter precipitation extremes by seven global high‐resolution (HR) Earth System Models (ESM). Six (four) HR ESMs simulate the observed increase in precipitation extremes over Southwest US (Southeast US) during ELI‐defined El Niño events better than their low‐resolution counterparts, which are low‐biased. The stronger ENSO‐dependence over the Southwest US and Southeast US in those models is associated with an improved simulation of moisture flux into the regions and/or storm track activity there. HR ESMs, however, generally overestimate the increase in precipitation extremes over the Pacific‐Northwest during La Niña events. Model bias there is associated with bias in moisture transport into the region during La Niña events, which is amplified by the enhanced vertical mass fluxes in HR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Response of Extreme Rainfall to Atmospheric Warming and Wetting: Implications for Hydrologic Designs Under a Changing Climate

Understanding the processes of rainfall extremes and their response to anthropogenic climate change is pivotal for improved adaptation of unprecedented flood hazards around the world. Here we take the record-breaking 20 July 2021 storm over central China as an example. We investigate the response of this particular storm to atmospheric warming (i.e., increase in air temperature) and wetting (i.e., increase in atmospheric moisture content) based on a series of convection-permitting model simulations. Our results show non-monotonic changes of the space-time rainfall variability to either increased temperature or atmospheric moisture content. The most extreme rain rate is produced when relative humidity is increased by 20~40 % or temperature is increased by less than 2°C. The non-monotonic rainfall response is more clearly revealed at fine spatial (100-1000 km 2 ) and temporal scales (less than 6 hours) rather than over the entire domain (~10 4 km 2 ) and aggregated over the storm duration (around two days). This is mainly attributable to the distinct feedbacks from atmospheric dynamics (i.e., moisture convergence and interaction with regional topography) rather than regulated by thermodynamic changes alone. Furthermore, atmospheric warming poses notable changes in the vertical structure of storm cells, contributing to reduced areal reduction factors at small spatial scales and short durations, while atmospheric wetting additionally modifies storm evolution properties. Our modeling analyses challenge the existing practices for hydrologic designs under a changing climate, highlighting particular vulnerability for cities or small basins to short-duration rainfall extremes and the resultant flash flood hazards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Meteorological Drivers of North American Monsoon Extreme Precipitation Events

Abstract In this paper the meteorological drivers of North American Monsoon (NAM) extreme precipitation events (EPEs) are identified and analyzed. First, the NAM area and its subregions are distinguished using self‐organizing maps applied to the Climate Prediction Center global precipitation data set. This reveals distinct subregions, shaped by the inhomogeneous geographic features of the NAM area, with distinct extreme precipitation character and drivers. Next, defining EPEs as days when subregion‐mean precipitation exceeds the 95th percentile of rainy days, five synoptic features and one mesoscale feature are investigated as potential drivers of EPEs. Essentially all EPEs can be associated with at least one selected driver, with only one event remaining unclassified. This analysis shows the dominant role of Gulf of California moisture surges, mesoscale convective systems and frontal systems in generating NAM extreme precipitation. Finally, a frequency and probability analysis is conducted to contrast precipitation distributions conditioned on the associated meteorological drivers. The findings demonstrate that the co‐occurrence of multiple features does not necessarily enhance the EPE probability.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

The GFDL Variable-Resolution Global Chemistry-Climate Model for Research at the Nexus of US Climate and Air Quality Extremes

We present a variable-resolution global chemistry-climate model (AM4VR) developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) for research at the nexus of US climate and air quality extremes. AM4VR has a horizontal resolution of 13 km over the US, allowing it to resolve urban-to-rural chemical regimes, mesoscale convective systems, and land-surface heterogeneity. With the resolution gradually reducing to 100 km over the Indian Ocean, we achieve multi-decadal simulations driven by observed sea surface temperatures at 50% of the computational cost for a 25-km uniform-resolution grid. In contrast with GFDL's AM4.1 contributing to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project at 100 km resolution, AM4VR features much improved US climate mean patterns and variability. In particular, AM4VR shows improved representation of: precipitation seasonal-to-diurnal cycles and extremes, notably reducing the central US dry-and-warm bias; western US snowpack and summer drought, with implications for wildfires; and the North American monsoon, affecting dust storms. AM4VR exhibits excellent representation of winter precipitation, summer drought, and air pollution meteorology in California with complex terrain, enabling skillful prediction of both extreme summer ozone pollution and winter haze events in the Central Valley. AM4VR also provides vast improvements in the process-level representations of biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, interactive dust emissions from land, and removal of air pollutants by terrestrial ecosystems. We highlight the value of increased model resolution in representing climate–air quality interactions through land-biosphere feedbacks. AM4VR offers a novel opportunity to study global dimensions to US air quality, especially the role of Earth system feedbacks in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Extreme Storm Events in an Ensemble of High‐Resolution Projections

This study uses different downscaling techniques and reference observations to investigate the characteristics of extreme storm events over the conterminous United States in historical and a projected future scenario. While previous studies agree on the projected changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes, there is a lack of consensus regarding how their size will change in response to an increase in radiative forcing. Moreover, the influence of different downscaling techniques on their characteristics has not been thoroughly examined. This study employs an ensemble of high‐resolution projections derived from six CMIP6 GCMs, using dynamical, statistical and artificial intelligence based downscaling techniques and two reference observations. Overall, we find noticeable differences in the size, average depth, and total precipitation volume of these storms among the climate ensembles in the historical period. Despite these differences in the historical period, we find consistent future changes across various ensembles. We find a robust projected increase in storm size during Winter and Spring but a decrease in size during Summer in the East. Nevertheless, irrespective of changes in their size, extreme storms are projected to intensify across all the ensembles and seasons.

Rastogi, Deeksha [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗
DOE OSTI2021

Anthropogenic influence on extreme precipitation over global land areas seen in multiple observational datasets

The intensification of extreme precipitation under anthropogenic forcing is robustly projected by global climate models, but highly challenging to detect in the observational record. Large internal variability distorts this anthropogenic signal. Models produce diverse magnitudes of precipitation response to anthropogenic forcing, largely due to differing schemes for parameterizing subgrid-scale processes. Meanwhile, multiple global observational datasets of daily precipitation exist, developed using varying techniques and inhomogeneously sampled data in space and time. Previous attempts to detect human influence on extreme precipitation have not incorporated model uncertainty, and have been limited to specific regions and observational datasets. Using machine learning methods that can account for these uncertainties and capable of identifying the time evolution of the spatial patterns, we find a physically interpretable anthropogenic signal that is detectable in all global observational datasets. Machine learning efficiently generates multiple lines of evidence supporting detection of an anthropogenic signal in global extreme precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗