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NASA NTRS2004

GLAST Burst Monitor Trigger Classification Algorithm

The Gamma Ray Large Area Space Telescope (GLAST), currently set for launch in the first quarter of 2007, will consist of two instruments, the GLAST Burst Monitor (GBM) and the Large Area Telescope (LAT). One of the goals of the GBM is to identify and locate gamma-ray bursts using on-board software. The GLAST observatory can then be re-oriented to allow observations by the LAT. A Bayesian analysis will be used to distinguish gamma-ray bursts from other triggering events, such as solar flares, magnetospheric particle precipitation, soft gamma repeaters (SGRs), and Cygnus X-1 flaring. The trigger parameters used in the analysis are the burst celestial coordinates, angle from the Earth's horizon, spectral hardness, and the spacecraft geomagnetic latitude. The algorithm will be described and the results of testing will be presented.

Perrin, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Cost-Effective Icy Bodies Exploration using Small Satellite Missions

It has long been known that Saturn's moon Enceladus is expelling water-rich plumes into space, providing passing spacecraft with a window into what is hidden underneath its frozen crust. Recent discoveries indicate that similar events could also occur on other bodies in the solar system, such as Jupiter's moon Europa and the dwarf planet Ceres in the asteroid belt. These plumes provide a possible giant leap forward in the search for organics and assessing habitability beyond Earth, stepping stones toward the long-term goal of finding extraterrestrial life. The United States Congress recently requested mission designs to Europa, to fit within a cost cap of $1B, much less than previous mission designs' estimates. Here, innovative cost-effective small spacecraft designs for the deep-space exploration of these icy worlds, using new and emerging enabling technologies, and how to explore the outer solar system on a budget below the cost horizon of a flagship mission, are investigated. Science requirements, instruments selection, rendezvous trajectories, and spacecraft designs are some topics detailed. The mission concepts revolve around a comparably small-sized and low-cost Plume Chaser spacecraft, instrumented to characterize the vapor constituents encountered on its trajectory. In the event that a plume is not encountered, an ejecta plume can be artificially created by a companion spacecraft, the Plume Maker, on the target body at a location timed with the passage of the Plume Chaser spacecraft. Especially in the case of Ceres, such a mission could be a great complimentary mission to Dawn, as well as a possible future Europa Clipper mission. The comparably small volume of the spacecraft enables a launch to GTO as a secondary payload, providing multiple launch opportunities per year. Plume Maker's design is nearly identical to the Plume Chaser, and fits within the constraints for a secondary payload launch. The cost-effectiveness of small spacecraft missions enables the exploration of multiple solar system bodies in reasonable timeframes despite budgetary constraints, with only minor adaptations. The work presented here is a summary of concepts targeting icy bodies, such as Europa and Ceres, which have been developed over the last year at NASA Ames Research Center's Mission Design Division. The platforms detailed in this work are also applicable to the cost-effective exploration of many other small icy bodies in the solar system.

Mission Design↗

NASA NTRS1993

Iridium in sediments containing large abundances of Australasian microtektites from DSDP hole 758B in the Eastern Indian Ocean and from DSDP hole 769A in the Sulu Sea

Excess Ir found in sediments at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary and in other (e.g., Pliocene) sediments from deep sea drilling cores is widely interpreted as evidence of major impact events. The Australasian tektites originated in an impact event approximately 0.77 Ma ago; microtektites have been found in deep-sea sediment cores from throughout the Indian Ocean, the Philippine Sea, and western Pacific Ocean, but Ir has not been previously reported in these horizons. The deep-sea record of tektites is of particular interest, because in contrast to most continental occurrences, the stratigraphy preserves the original depositional position. Recently several cores having exceptionally high contents of Australasian microtektites have been investigated, Glass and Wu found shocked quartz associated with the microtektites. We used neutron activation to determine concentrations of Ir and other elements in two cores bearing microtektites, one from Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) hole 758B in the Eastern Indian Ocean and one from DSDP hole 769A in the Sulu Sea (near Mindanao, Philippines). The sedimentation age for the microtektite layers in core 758B lies between 0.73 - 0.78 Ma and agrees well with the mean laser-fusion Ar-40/Ar-39 age of Australasian tektites of 0.77 +/- 0.02 Ma by Izett et al. We are able to resolve a small positive Ir enhancement in 758B. Core 769A shows too much scatter to allow resolution of an Ir peak.

Schmidt, Gerhard↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Moon Burst Energetics All-sky Monitor (MoonBEAM)

MoonBEAM is a SmallSat concept placed in cislunar orbit developed to study the progenitors and multimessenger/multiwavelength signals of transient relativistic jets and outflows and determine the conditions that lead to the launching of a transient relativistic jet. The distinguishing advantage of MoonBEAM is the instantaneous all-sky coverage, maximizing the gamma-ray transients observations and providing upper limits for nondetections. Gamma-ray observatories in low Earth orbit are not able to survey the entire sky at a given time due to Earth blockage as well as detector downtime from the high particle activity in the South Atlantic Anomaly region. The long baseline provided from a cislunar orbit, allows MoonBEAM to constrain the localization annulus when combined with a gamma-ray instrument in low Earth orbit utilizing the timing triangulation technique. Improving the localization precision of a gamma-ray burst aids the gravitational wave follow-up community in reducing the region needed to be searched to locate and identify the afterglow and kilanova emission. Furthermore, by providing a different vantage point for a gamma-ray detection, MoonBEAM can help extend the gravitational wave detection horizon by increasing the confidence of a simultaneous marginal gravitational wave signal. Through the all-sky coverage, MoonBEAM will also provide insight into the conditions that lead to a successful relativistic jet, instead of a shock breakout event, or a completely failed jet in the case of core collapse supernovae.

Gamma-ray Bursts↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantum Gravity and Laser Interferometry: Towards Observable Predictions

Understanding quantum gravity remains one of the deepest challenges in modern physics, as direct experimental access to Planck-scale effects is beyond current technological reach. However, recent theoretical advances indicate that quantum fluctuations of spacetime may produce measurable effects in precision experiments, particularly near causal horizons. This opens new avenues for testing quantum gravity phenomena through high-precision measurement techniques. This dissertation develops multiple theoretical models to characterize these effects and examines their potential observational signatures in future gravitational wave interferometers. We begin by investigating the role of quantum fluctuations in near-horizon geometries through the lens of the AdS/CFT correspondence, which provides a powerful framework for understanding the interplay between quantum field theory and general relativity via holographic principles. By modeling stochastic energy-momentum sources in Rindler-AdS spacetime, we demonstrate that vacuum fluctuations transform the Einstein equations into a Langevin-type stochastic differential equation, leading to potentially observable fluctuations in photon traversal times. Extending this approach to Minkowski spacetime, we establish a correspondence between gravitational shockwaves and fluid dynamics, showing that near-horizon perturbations satisfy an equation analogous to that governing incompressible fluids, thereby reinforcing the membrane paradigm and hydrodynamic analogies in the context of the fluid/gravity duality. Furthermore, we construct the covariant phase space of a spherically symmetric causal diamond in Minkowski spacetime, identifying two fundamental charges that govern its evolution. These results provide a foundation for quantizing causal horizons and understanding their microscopic degrees of freedom. Building upon these theoretical developments, we further examine a related stochastic phenomenon: the gravitational wave memory background arising from the cumulative memory steps produced by supermassive black hole mergers. After reviewing the standard stochastic gravitational wave background, gravitational memory effects, and BMS symmetries, we model the stochastic memory background using a Brownian motion framework. We show that while the cumulative memory background initially appears above the sensitivity curve of space-based interferometers like LISA, the realistic subtraction of individually resolvable merger events substantially suppresses the residual signal, making its detection more challenging. This highlights the critical importance of source subtraction when evaluating the detectability of gravitational memory effects. By bridging fundamental theory with experimental prospects, this dissertation contributes to the ongoing effort to uncover the quantum nature of spacetime through precision measurement techniques. Whether through detecting quantum spacetime fluctuations, gravitational memory backgrounds, or probing the symmetries of causal horizons, the pursuit of observable quantum gravity phenomena continues to expand the frontiers of both theory and experiment.

Zhang, Yiwen [Caltech] (ORCID:0000000323559416)↗

NASA NTRS2011

Gulf of Mexico Air Quality: CALIPSO Support for Gulf of Mexico Air Quality Relating to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

On April 20, 2010, an oil platform belonging to BP exploded and leaked a huge volume of oil into the Gulf of Mexico. In an effort to control the spread of the oil, BP applied dispersants such as Corexit and conducted in-situ burnings of the oil. This catastrophe created a complex chain of events that affected not only the fragile water and land ecosystems, but the humans who breathe the air every day. Thousands of people were exposed to fumes associated with oil vapors from the spill, burning of the oil, and the toxic mixture of dispersants. While aiding in clean-up efforts, local fishermen were directly exposure to fumes when working on the Gulf. A notable amount of Gulf Coast residents were also exposed to the oil fumes as seasonal southeasterly winds blew vapors toward land. The Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) found in oil vapors include: benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylene, naphthalene, hydrogen sulfide and particulate matter (PM). Increases in water temperature and sunlight due to the summer season allow for these VOCs and PM to evaporate into the air more rapidly. Aside from the VOCs found in oil vapors, the dispersant being used to break up the oil is highly toxic and is thought to be even more toxic than the oil itself (EPA website, 2010). To protect human health, the environment, and to make informed policy decisions relevant to the spill, the EPA Region 6 has continuously monitored the affected areas carefully for levels of pollutants in the outdoor air that are associated with petroleum products and the burning of oil along the coast. In an effort to prevent, prepare for, and respond to future oil spills that occur in and around inland waters of the United States, the EPA has been working with local, state, and federal response partners. Air quality measurements were collected by the EPA at five active monitoring systems stationed along the coast.

Nguyen, Myngoc T.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Causal structure of interacting Weyl fermions in condensed matter systems

Abstract The spacetime light cone is central to the definition of causality in the theory of relativity. Recently, links between relativistic and condensed matter physics have been uncovered, where relativistic particles can emerge as quasiparticles in the energy-momentum space of matter. Here, we unveil an energy-momentum analogue of the spacetime light cone by mapping time to energy, space to momentum, and the light cone to the Weyl cone. We show that two Weyl quasiparticles can only interact to open a global energy gap if they lie in each other’s energy-momentum dispersion cones–analogous to two events that can only have a causal connection if they lie in each other’s light cones. Moreover, we demonstrate that the causality of surface chiral modes in quantum matter is entangled with the causality of bulk Weyl fermions. Furthermore, we identify a unique quantum horizon region and an associated ‘thick horizon’ in the emergent causal structure.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRS1977

Chemical character of the partially flooded Smythii Basin based on Al/Si orbital X-ray data

Orbital X-ray fluorescence data indicate that continuous mare-basalt flooding is confined to the northeastern quadrant of the Smythii Basin. Al/Si values for soils in the unflooded northwestern section of the Smythii Basin closely approximate those for the adjacent terra to the west. Terra soils east of Mare Smythii, however, are unusually aluminous compared to terra soils west of the basin. This pronounced contrast between Al/Si values for terra soils to the east and west of Smythii as well as the minimal difference in values between the northwestern section of the basin and adjacent terra to the west are most likely due to a chemically homogeneous layer of ejecta from a large impact event west of Mare Smythii, such as that which formed the Crisium Basin. An alternate hypothesis is that the unflooded section of the basin is predominantly original basin floor material, indicating that the impact forming the 4km deep Smythii Basin did not penetrate into a horizon chemically different from the terra west of Smythii. The chemical contrast between the terra east and west of Smythii, then, would be ascribed to lateral heterogeneity within the lunar crust

Andre, C. G.↗

DOE OSTI2026

VIC-Global Parameter Dataset Sensitivity with the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model: Evaluating the importance of dynamic land surface parameters when using the VIC-Global parameter dataset

Accurate prediction of runoff is essential to water resources management, flood risk assessment, and ecosystem protection. However, many hydrological models still have relatively substantial limitations when representing the influence of land use and land cover (LULC) on runoff generation and routing. Changes in LULC, such as deforestation, urban expansion, agricultural intensification, and wetland loss, have been shown to alter the water balance at the land surface through fundamental hydrologic processes (e.g., interception, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and soil storage). However, it remains an open question what the exact magnitude and timing of these impacts are for the spatial and temporal scales commonly used in engineering applications. In this analysis we focus on one aspect of recent LULC change for assessing human impacts, which is urbanization. Specifically we seek to determine the impacts of urbanization on the magnitude and timing of surface runoff and baseflow in HUC-12 basins in Clark County, Nevada which has experienced rapid urbanization. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model with a widely used off-the-shelf dataset of land surface parameters, VIC-Global, both of which have been commonly used in the past for water and energy balance modeling for large scale hydrologic studies. We examine two scenarios where the first scenario removes all urbanized land cover and parameterizes those areas of the basins as barren or open shrubland. The second scenario tests the opposite case where all areas of the basins are classified as urban regardless of their present classification. The results from the VIC model show there is a low sensitivity for daily surface runoff between scenarios. The daily baseflow values indicate similar low sensitivity to the classification change during specific periods, but then have substantial differences during other period when large precipitation events are occurring. This is likely due to the assumed parameter values for the urban land cover classification made by the VIC-Global dataset. Using a static land cover parameterization is reasonable for large domain hydrology models that are being used for near-term planning horizons (<30 years). However, longer planning horizons where feedbacks between the atmosphere and land surface are important, especially in transient climate situations, considerations for how to update land surface parameters should be incorporated.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1976

Quartz Crystal Clocks

General Time Corporation, under contract to NASA, developed a quartz crystal for obtaining a stable time base from which all mission times could be derived. This later became basis of consumer clocks and watches with accuracy of one minute a year, watches useful in timing sports events as well as general use. When quartz is electrically stimulated it can vibrate millions of times a second. Since timepieces use a vibrating body to keep up time, incredibly fast vibration of a quartz crystal--up to 4,194,304 beats a second opened a new horizon in accuracy.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet

Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates and the sparsity of the observations, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon. As a case study, we integrate FourCastNet, a weather surrogate model, within a variational data assimilation framework using partial, noisy ERA5 data. Our results show that filtering estimates remain accurate over a year-long assimilation window and provide effective initial conditions for forecasting tasks, including extreme event prediction.

Adrian, Melissa [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United Stat↗

NASA NTRS1995

The circum-Chryse region as a possible example of a hydrologic cycle on Mars: Geologic observations and theoretical evaluation

Moore, Jeffrey M.↗

NASA NTRS1995

The circum-Chryse region as a possible example of a hydrologic cycle on Mars: Geologic observations and theoretical evaluation

The transection and superposition relationships among channels, chaos, surface materials units, and other features in the circum-Chryse region of Mars were used to evaluate relative age relationships and evolution of flood events. Channels and chaos in contact (with one another) were treated as single discrete flood-carved systems. Some outflow channel systems form networks and are inferred to have been created by multiple flood events. Within some outflow channel networks, several separate individual channel systems can be traced to a specific chaos which acted as flood-source area to that specific flood channel. Individual flood-carved systems were related to widespread materials units or other surface features that served as stratigraphic horizons. Chryse outflow channels are inferred to have formed over most of the perceivable history of Mars. Outflow channels are inferred to become younger with increasing proximity to the Chryse basin. In addition, outflow channels closer to the basin show a greater diversity in age. The relationship of subsequent outflow channel sources to the sources of earlier floods is inferred to disfavor episodic flooding due to the progressive tapping of a juvenile near-surface water supply. Instead, we propose the circum-Chryse region as a candidate site of past hydrological recycling. The discharge rates necessary to carve the circum-Chryse outflow channels would have inevitably formed temporary standing bodies of H2O on the Martian surface where the flood-waters stagnated and pooled (the Chryse basin is topographically enclosed). These observations and inferences have led us to formulate and evaluate two hypotheses: (1) large amounts of the sublimated H2O off the Chryse basin flood lakes precipitated (snowed) onto the flood-source highlands and this H2O was incorporated into the near surface, recharging the H2O sources, making possible subsequent deluges; and (2) ponded flood-water in Chryse basin drained back down an anti basinward dipping subsurface layer accessed along the southern edge of the lake, recharging the flood-source aquifers. H2O not redeposited in the flood-source region was largely lost to the hydrologic cycle. This loss progressively lowered the vitality of the cycle, probably by now killing it. Our numerical evaluations indicate that of the two hypotheses we formulated, the groundwater seep cycle seems by far the more viable. Optimally, approx. 3/4 of the original mass of an ice-covered cylindrical lake (albedo 0.5, 1 km deep, 100-km radius, draining along its rim for one quarter of its circumference into substrata with a permeability of 3000 darcies) can be modeled to have moved underground (on timescales of the order of 10(exp 3) years) before the competing mechanisms of sublimation and freeze down choked off further water removal. Once underground, this water can travel distances equal to the separation between Chryse basin and flood-source sites in geologically short (approx. 10(exp 6) year-scale) times. Conversely, we calculate that optimally only approx. 40% of the H2O carried from Chryse can condense at the highlands, and most of the precipitate would either collect at the base of the highlands/lowlands scarp or sublimate at rates greater than it would accumulate over the flood-source sites. Further observations from forthcoming missions may permit the determination of which mechanisms may have operated to recycle the Chryse flood-waters.

Moore, Jeffrey M.↗

NASA NTRS1995

The Circum-Chryse Region as a Possible Example of a Hydrologic Cycle on Mars: Geologic Observations and Theoretical Evaluation

The transection and superposition relationships among channels, chaos, surface materials units, and other features in the circum-Chryse region of Mars were used to evaluate relative age relationships and evolution of flood events. Channels and chaos in contact (with one another) were treated as single discrete flood-carved systems. Some outflow channel systems form networks and are inferred to have been created by multiple flood events. Within some outflow channel networks, several separate individual channel systems can be traced to a specific chaos which acted as flood-source area to that specific flood channel. Individual flood-carved systems were related to widespread materials units or other surface features that served as stratigraphic horizons. Chryse outflow channels are inferred to have formed over most of the perceivable history of Mars. Outflow channels are inferred to become younger with increasing proximity to the Chryse basin. In addition, outflow channels closer to the basin show a greater diversity in age. The relationship of subsequent outflow channel sources to the sources of earlier floods is inferred to disfavor episodic flooding due to the progressive tapping of a juvenile near-surface water supply. Instead, we propose the circum-Chryse region as a candidate site of past hydrological recycling. The discharge rates necessary to carve the circum-Chryse outflow channels would have inevitably formed temporary standing bodies of H2O on the Martian surface where the flood-waters stagnated and pooled (the Chryse basin is topographically enclosed). These observations and inferences have led us to formulate and evaluate two hypotheses: (1) large amounts of the sublimated H2O off the Chryse basin flood lakes precipitated (snowed) onto the flood-source highlands and this H2O was incorporated into the near surface, recharging the H2O sources, making possible subsequent deluges; and (2) ponded flood-water in Chryse basin drained back down an anti basinward dipping subsurface layer accessed along the southern edge of the lake, recharging the flood-source aquifers. H2O not redeposited in the flood-source region was largely lost to the hydrologic cycle. This loss progressively lowered the vitality of the cycle, probably by now killing it. Our numerical evaluations indicate that of the two hypotheses we formulated, the groundwater seep cycle seems by far the more viable. Optimally, approximately 3/4 of the original mass of an ice-covered cylindrical lake (albedo 0.5, 1 km deep, 100-km radius, draining along its rim for one quarter of its circumference into substrata with a permeability of 3000 darcies) can be modeled to have moved underground (on timescales of the order of 10(exp 3) years) before the competing mechanisms of sublimation and freeze down choked off further water removal. Once underground, this water can travel distances equal to the separation between Chryse basin and flood-source sites in geologically short (approximately 10(exp 6) year-scale) times. Conversely, we calculate that optimally only approximately 40% of the H2O carried from Chryse can condense at the highlands, and most of the precipitate would either collect at the base of the highlands/lowlands scrap or sublimate at rates greater than it would accumulate over the flood-source sites. Further observations from forthcoming missions may permit the determination of which mechanisms may have operated to recycle the Chryse flood-waters.

Moore, Jeffrey M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Doing Science with eLISA: Astrophysics and Cosmology in the Millihertz Regime

This document introduces the exciting and fundamentally new science and astronomy that the European New Gravitational Wave Observatory (NGO) mission (derived from the previous LISA proposal) will deliver. The mission (which we will refer to by its informal name eLISA ) will survey for the first time the low-frequency gravitational wave band (about 0.1 mHz to 1 Hz), with sufficient sensitivity to detect interesting individual astrophysical sources out to z = 15. The measurements described here will address the basic scientific goals that have been captured in ESA s New Gravitational Wave Observatory Science Requirements Document ; they are presented here so that the wider scientific community can have access to them. The eLISA mission will discover and study a variety of cosmic events and systems with high sensitivity: coalescences of massive black holes binaries, brought together by galaxy mergers; mergers of earlier, less-massive black holes during the epoch of hierarchical galaxy and black-hole growth; stellar-mass black holes and compact stars in orbits just skimming the horizons of massive black holes in galactic nuclei of the present era; extremely compact white dwarf binaries in our Galaxy, a rich source of information about binary evolution and about future Type Ia supernovae; and possibly most interesting of all, the uncertain and unpredicted sources, for example relics of inflation and of the symmetry-breaking epoch directly after the Big Bang. eLISA s measurements will allow detailed studies of these signals with high signal-to-noise ratio, addressing most of the key scientific questions raised by ESA s Cosmic Vision programme in the areas of astrophysics and cosmology. They will also provide stringent tests of general relativity in the strong-field dynamical regime, which cannot be probed in any other way. This document not only describes the science but also gives an overview on the mission design and orbits. LISA s heritage in the eLISA design will be clear to those familiar with the previous proposal, as will its incorporation of key elements of hardware from the LISA Pathfinder mission, scheduled for launch by ESA in 2014. But eLISA is fundamentally a new mission, one that will pioneer the completely new science of low-frequency gravitational wave astronomy. 4 of

Amaro, Seoane, Pau↗

NASA NTRS2015

Essentials for Team Based Rehearsals and the Differences Between Earth Orbiting and Deep Space Missions

The mission readiness environment is where spacecraft and ground systems converge to form the entire as built flight system for the final phase of operationally-themed testing. For most space missions, this phase starts between nine to twelve months prior to the planned launch. In the mission readiness environment, the goal is to perform sufficient testing to exercise the flight teams and systems through all mission phases in order to demonstrate that all elements are ready to support. As part of the maturation process, a mission rehearsal program is introduced to focus on team processes within the final flight system, in a more realistic operational environment. The overall goal for a mission rehearsal program is to: 1) ensure all flight system elements are able to meet mission objectives as a cohesive team; 2) reduce the risk in space based operations due to deficiencies in people, processes, procedures, or systems; and 3) instill confidence in the teams that will execute these first time flight activities. A good rehearsal program ensures critical events are exercised, discovers team or flight system nuances whose impact were previously unknown, and provides a real-time environment in which to interact with the various teams and systems. For flight team members, the rehearsal program provides experience and training in the event of planned (or unplanned) flight contingencies. To preserve the essence for team based rehearsals, this paper will explore the important elements necessary for a successful rehearsal program, document differences driven by Earth Orbiting (Aqua, Aura, Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP)) and Deep Space missions (New Horizons, Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN)) and discuss common challenges to both mission types. In addition, large scale program considerations and enhancements or additional steps for developing a rehearsal program will also be considered. For NASA missions, the mission rehearsal phase is a key milestone for predicting and ensuring on-orbit success.

Gomez-Rosa, Carlos↗

DOE OSTI2026

A hybrid CNN-LSTM surrogate model for hyper-resolution spatiotemporal flood forecasting in Norfolk, Virginia

Study region: Norfolk, Virginia, United States Study focus: Accurate and timely flood forecasting is essential for enhancing resilience in coastal urban areas in the context of increasing frequency and intensity of rainfall, sea level rise and urbanization. This study presents a hybrid deep learning-based surrogate model that integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to enable real-time spatiotemporal flood forecasting. The model leverages CNN to capture spatial features from inputs such as elevation and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), while LSTM processes time-series inputs of rainfall and tide data to capture temporal features. New hydrologic insights for the region: The hybrid CNN-LSTM model was trained using the physics-based hydrodynamic model simulations obtained from the Two-dimensional Unsteady FLOW (TUFLOW) model for Norfolk, Virginia, and achieved high predictive accuracy across diverse flood-prone areas. The reduced computational time from four to six hours using TUFLOW to 3.2 min per event using CNN-LSTM enables rapid flood inundation mapping and early warning applications. The model effectively captured both spatial flood extents and their temporal evolution across different flooding scenarios, providing forecasts at a 2.5-m spatial resolution and 15-min temporal resolution and a one-hour-ahead prediction horizon. While challenges remain in terms of transferability to new regions and real-time data assimilation, this approach demonstrates strong potential for supporting operational flood risk management in coastal urban environments.

Coastal urban flooding↗

NASA NTRS2003

Probable Disastrous Consequences of Collision Between Unknown Small (100 m) Asteroids with Known (Approximately 1 km) Near Earth Orbiting (NEO) Asteroids

The long-term stability of the Solar System is not well understood. Ironically its stability is taken for granted even though our knowledge of all the constituents [comets, asteroids. (The Asteroid Belt between Mars and Jupiter, Trojan Asteroids, Kuiper belt, Ort Cloud), planetoids, planets, moons, etc], and its long-term dynamics cannot be easily computed. At best one might say that the solar system is chaotic, but much of the time it seems to exists near a quasi-stationary state. An asteroid that passes near the Earth regularly returns with clock-like precision. Taking into account every known detail of its path through the solar system, its orbit is calculated forward thousands of years with no untoward calamity on the horizon. And then one day, this passive visitor slams into the Earth during a sunny afternoon picnic! Can this happen? Unfortunately, this is a real possibility in the ordinary history of the solar system. In fact our knowledge of the solar system in the small is sketchy, as will be pointed out. Events, which lie outside our awareness, can precipitate disasters that we may perceive when it's too late to launch effective counter measures. In this work, one such scenario is described and the direct consequences for the Earth are calculated.

Smalley, Larry↗