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At least 235 records · Page 13

Asthma and Particulate Matter Pollution: Insights from Health Survey and Air Quality Monitoring in the Buzzard Point, Washington, DC Neighborhood

Air pollution, climate change, and other environmental factors contribute to increasing asthma in manycities, including Washington, DC. This work provides a case study of how community input, neighborhood-level health surveys, and air quality monitoring can inform the understanding of asthma and air pollution.A partnership between residents, concerned citizens, scientists, and educators has been working for envi-ronmental health in a DC neighborhood located on a major roadway, next to concrete batch plants andclose to several construction projects. A 2016 Community Health and Safety Study by the DC Departmentof Health, Office of Health Equity, recognized this particular neighborhood as more vulnerable to healthimpacts from recent construction in the area, compared with the surrounding areas, due to lower averageincome and higher percentage of seniors and children. This work presents neighborhood health surveysand air quality monitoring data at a more granular, local level than available from DC governmentagencies. The health surveys documented residents’ experiences around air pollution, asthma,and other health concerns. A key finding was evidence that asthma might be undercounted in thisneighborhood; among residents who did not indicate a diagnosis of asthma, many discussed havingsymptoms that could reflect asthma. Air quality monitoring (particulate matter [PM]) did not indicate thatfederal air quality standards have been violated. Real-time PM data, however,illustrated how current PMstandards, such as 1- and 24-hour averages, may fail to capture shorter duration high PM events that areconsistent with resident concerns.

Shizuka Hsieh↗

A New Organization Metric for Synoptic Scale Tropical Convective Aggregation

Organization metrics were originally developed to measure how densely convective clouds are arranged at mesoscales. In this work, we apply organization metrics to describe tropical synoptic scale convective activity. Such activity is identified by cloud-precipitation (hybrid) regimes defined at 1-degree and 1-hourly resolution. Existing metrics were found to perform inadequately for such convective regime aggregates because the large domain size and co-existence of sparse aggregate occurrences with noisy isolated convection often violate assumptions inherent in these metrics. In order to capture these characteristics, in this study the existing “convective organization potential” (COP) metric was modified so as to focus on local organization and provide increased weight to aggregate size. The resulting “area-based COP” (ABCOP) follows the principle that the more numerous the objects, the higher the chance of organization. It is thus optimized to capture large-scale convective events occurring during phenomena such as ENSO and MJO, while also performs as well as existing metrics for small domain sizes.

Synoptic scales↗

Development of Multiresolution Capabilities for the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) tool A progress update

INL researchers work on technoeconomic analyses for integrated energy systems (IES) using the Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE). Within FORCE, researchers use the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) tool to conduct optimization of grid portfolios under uncertain market conditions. These optimizations determine optimal capacities for all IES components and strategies for resource dispatch which maximize some economic metric (e.g., net present value). Resource dispatch occurs on finer timescales (typically hours) and thus are asked to respond to a given time series (e.g. hourly load demand profiles for a grid, or pre-determined electricity prices). Volatile and complex bidding dynamics as well as poorly forecasted weather events within deregulated markets add uncertainty to the time series; FORCE can address this uncertainty by training a reduced order model on historical time series and generate unique synthetic time series which represent individual scenarios or realizations of the market. The IES configuration can be simulated under these different sampled realizations and a stochastic optimization is conducted which optimizes the expected value of the desired economic metric. The training of a synthetic time series generator is limited by the chosen time resolution; dynamics can occur on different time scales. Seasonal demand trends can dominate faster dynamical events (such as power outages from certain sectors or severe weather events) which might not get captured correctly by the trained model. In this report, we investigate different ways of addressing the training and generation of time series on multiple time scales using three main algorithms: wavelet decomposition, dynamic mode decomposition, and generative adversarial networks for time series. We demonstrate a time series analysis that yields information on not just the frequency space but also temporal space: where a fast Fourier transform can provide what frequencies dominate, the new algorithms can provide when the frequencies dominate as well. These analyses can help improve IES optimization by allowing researchers to couple simulations at different timescales when it is most needed - seasonal, day-ahead, and real time optimization - with greater computational efficiency. Future work will include implementation of a subset of the proposed algorithms into the FORCE toolset and application of these analyses into multiple timescale optimization.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

WRF Simulations of the 20-22 January 2007 Snow Events over Eastern Canada: Comparison with In-Situ and Satellite Observations

One of the grand challenges of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is to improve cold season precipitation measurements in middle and high latitudes through the use of high-frequency passive microwave radiometry. For this, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Goddard microphysics scheme is coupled with a satellite data simulation unit (WRF-SDSU) that has been developed to facilitate over-land snowfall retrieval algorithms by providing a virtual cloud library and microwave brightness temperature (Tb) measurements consistent with the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI). This study tested the Goddard cloud microphysics scheme in WRF for two snowstorm events, a lake effect and a synoptic event, that occurred between 20 and 22 January 2007 over the Canadian CloudSAT/CALIPSO Validation Project (C3VP) site in Ontario, Canada. The 24h-accumulated snowfall predicted by the WRF model with the Goddard microphysics was comparable to the observed accumulated snowfall by the ground-based radar for both events. The model correctly predicted the onset and ending of both snow events at the CARE site. WRF simulations capture the basic cloud properties as seen by the ground-based radar and satellite (i.e., CloudSAT, AMSU-B) observations as well as the observed cloud streak organization in the lake event. This latter result reveals that WRF was able to capture the cloud macro-structure reasonably well.

Shi, J. J.↗

Water Stress in Global Transboundary River Basins: Significance of Upstream Water Use on Downstream Stress

Growing population and water demand have increased pressure on water resources in various parts of the globe, including many transboundary river basins. While the impacts of upstream water use on downstream water availability have been analyzed in many of these international river basins, this has not been systematically done at the global scale using coherent and comparable datasets. In this study, we aim to assess the change in downstream water stress due to upstream water use in the world's transboundary river basins. Water stress was first calculated considering only local water use of each sub-basin based on country-basin mesh, then compared with the situation when upstream water use was subtracted from downstream water availability. Wefound that water stress was generally already high when considering only local water use, affecting 0.95-1.44 billion people or 33%-51% of the population in transboundary river basins. After accounting for upstream water use, stress level increased by at least 1 percentage-point for 30-65 sub-basins, affecting 0.29-1.13 billion people. Altogether 288 out of 298 middle-stream and downstream sub-basin areas experienced some change in stress level. Further, we assessed whether there is a link between increased water stress due to upstream water use and the number of conflictive and cooperative events in the transboundary river basins, as captured by two prominent databases. No direct relationship was found. This supports the argument that conflicts and cooperation events originate from a combination of different drivers, among which upstream-induced water stress may play a role. Our findings contribute to better understanding of upstream-downstream dynamics in water stress to help address water allocation problems.

Water↗

Nuclear safety Enhanced: A Deep dive into current and future RAVEN applications

As the horizon of nuclear energy expands with the advent of small modular reactors, IV generation reactors, and fusion reactors, there is a growing perspective that the licensing process could benefit from a more comprehensive approach. Moving beyond traditional deterministic and PRA analysis might pave the way for a novel safety analysis paradigm propelled by the increasing computational power at our disposal. This paper explores different methodologies that can improve the outcomes of nuclear safety analysis. These range from uncertainty quantification techniques, aimed at enhancing the precision of safety margins, to deploying dynamic event trees by driving system code simulations, capturing the potential evolutions of severe accidents. These methodologies introduce innovative dimensions to safety analysis, considering the consequences of postulated events and the dynamics of accident sequences. However, they also bring forth challenges, especially in managing the complexity and sheer volume of potential scenarios. The paper touches upon some strategies to counter these challenges, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and continuous evolution in the face of emerging nuclear safety concerns. Additionally, the paper sheds light on the need for advanced tools to apply these methodologies. Among these tools is RAVEN, an open-source software designed for parametric and probabilistic analyses. Its core components, including distribution, sampler, and reduced order model, enable various applications, from risk assessment and mitigation to dynamic learning and plant control logic simulations.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Topological Analysis of Temporal Hypergraphs

In this work we study the topological properties of temporal hypergraphs. Hypergraphs provide a higher dimensional generalization of a graph that is capable of capturing multi-way connections. As such, they have become an integral part of network science. A common use of hypergraphs is to model events as hyperedges in which the event can involve many elements as nodes. This provides a more complete picture of the event in comparison to the standard dyadic connection limitation of a graph. However, a common attribution to events is temporal information as an interval for when the event occurred. Consequently, a temporal hypergraph is born which accurately captures both the temporal information of events as well as their multi-way connections. Common tools for studying these temporal hypergraphs typically use summary statistics of snapshots from a sliding window procedure to capture changes in the underlying dynamics. However, these do not provide insight into how the changing structure of the hypergraph evolves and which components of the temporal hypergraph persist and are influential to the underlying system. To alleviate this need we leverage zigzag persistence from the field of Topological Data Analysis (TDA) to study the change in topological structure of time-evolving hypergraphs. We apply our pipeline to both a cyber security and social network dataset and show how the topological structure of their temporal hypergraphs change and can be used to understand the underlying dynamics.

hypergraphs, topological data analysis, zigzag per↗

Lightning electromagnetic radiation field spectra in the interval from 0.2 to 20 MHz

New Fourier transforms of wideband time-domain electric fields (E) produced by lightning (recorded at the Kennedy Space Center during the summers of 1985 and 1987) were recorded in such a way that several different events in each lightning flash could be captured. Average HF spectral amplitudes for first return strokes, stepped-leader steps, and 'characteristic pulses' are given for significantly more events, at closer ranges, and with better spectral resolution than in previous literature reports. The method of recording gives less bias toward the first large event in the flash and thus yields a large sample of a wide variety of lightning processes. As a result, reliable composite spectral amplitudes are obtained for a number of different processes in cloud-to-ground lightning over the frequency interval from 0.2 to 20 MHz.

Willett, J. C.↗

Nucleosynthesis in white-dwarf atmospheres

Consideration of events by which both s- and r-process nucleosynthesis may occur on the surfaces of white-dwarf stars. The main requirement is that the accreted hydrogen be mixed with comparable numbers of C-12 (or other alpha nuclei) before a runaway capture of protons takes place. Subsequent events offer many possibilities for nucleosynthesis and stars of peculiar composition. A new mechanism for a surface s-process due to few-MeV protons is also described. Concluding comments concern cosmic gamma-ray bursts and the origin of anomalous low-energy galactic cosmic rays.

Hoyle, F.↗

Capture, storage, and re-use of liquid hydrogen boil-off for aviation and aerospace applications

Despite major interest in the use of liquid hydrogen as a fuel for aviation and aerospace sectors, loss of hydrogen through boil-off continues to be a hurdle as it causes financial loss, indirect greenhouse gas emissions, and safety concerns. Herein, we perform techno-economic analysis, calibrated with experimental measurements, to assess the use of sorbents to capture and condition hydrogen boil-off events in the range of 1.5 to 70 tonnes per day at launch sites and airports. We evaluate the direct delivery of captured boil-off to combustion engines and fuel cells, comparing against boil-off re-liquification and compression. Results indicate probable cost-effectiveness at delivered liquid hydrogen prices above 0.9 U.S. dollar ($) per kg H2 at airports, and above 10 $ per kg H2 at launch sites where 10% or more of hydrogen is lost to boil-off.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Observations and Modeling of Composition of Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere (UTILS): Isentropic Mixing Events and Morphology of HNO3 as Observed by HIRDLS and Comparison with Results from Global Modeling Initiative

isentropic exchange of air masses between the tropical upper troposphere and mid-latitude lowermost stratosphere (the so-called "middle world") is an important pathway for stratospheric-tropospheric exchange. A seasonal, global view of this process has been difficult to obtain, in part due to the lack of the vertical resolution in satellite observations needed to capture the laminar character of these events. Ozone observations at a resolution of about 1 km from the High Resolution Dynamic Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) on NASA's Aura satellite show instances of these intrusions. Such intrusions should also be observable in HN03 observations; however, the abundances of nitric acid could be additionally controlled by chemical processes or incorporation and removal into ice clouds. We present a systematic examination of the HIRDLS data on O3 and HNO3 to determine the seasonal and spatial characteristics of the distribution of isentropic intrusions. At the same time, we compare the observed distributions with those calculated by the Global Modeling Initiative combined tropospheric-stratospheric model, which has a vertical resolution of about I km. This Chemical Transport Model (CTM) is driven by meteorological fields obtained from the GEOS-4 system of NASA/Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), for the Aura time period, at a vertical resolution of about 1 km. Such comparison brings out the successes and limitations of the model in representing isentropic stratospheric-tropospheric exchange, and the different processes controlling HNO3 in the UTAS.

Rodriquez, J. M.↗

Dynamics and Clearance Analysis of NASA's Space Launch System Block-1 and Block 1B Solid Rocket Booster Separation Event

NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) solid rocket booster separation event is an essential area of study requiring high fidelity modelling to capture the complexity of an intra-atmospheric stage separation event. The setup and analysis for this event leveraged the NASA-developed CLVTOPS multi-body dynamics toolchain to model aerodynamics at the separation event, booster thrust tailoff, and Core Stage engine throttling in addition to the separation system itself (booster separation motors (BSMs), pyrotechnic bolts and struts). The approach documented here will give a brief background on the CLVTOPS toolchain, how key input models are integrated and verified, and how results are quantified using an ordered-statistics approach. Specific areas discussed herein address the performance-to-orbit realized by adjusting the delay time between the separation cue and the actual separation event, and how the orientation of the aft BSMs was tuned to address small clearances between the aft diagonal attach struts and the Core Stage. Post-flight results from the inaugural Artemis I flight are also shown, and validation is performed between predicted vs. actual separation dynamics and clearances. Challenging night launch conditions necessitated comparisons that were more qualitative in nature, but still showed very good agreement to pre-flight predictions.

Carole J Addona↗

Enhancing 2D hydrodynamic flood models through machine learning and urban drainage integration

Two-dimensional hydrodynamic flood models are commonly employed for simulating flood extent and inundation depth. However, the influence of urban drainage network (UDN) is frequently overlooked in these models, potentially compromising their accuracy. Furthermore, the expensive computational costs and longer processing times make them challenging for large-scale hydrodynamic simulation. To address these challenges, this paper develops a machine learning (ML)-driven emulator for an open-source flood model, the Two-dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON). A TRITON-ML Emulator (TR-Emulator) that utilizes Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory is developed to capture the spatiotemporal features of flood events based on the outputs from TRITON. We further enhance the emulator by integrating UDN parameters (TR-UDN), such as the flow capacity of drainage pipes, pipe size, and pipe length, via an ML stacking technique to improve the water surface elevation (WSE) simulation. Hurricane Harvey 2017 in Houston, TX is used as the case study. We compare WSE results from TRITON, TR-Emulator, TR-UDN, and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) observations to evaluate the performance of these models. The results indicate that the TR-Emulator effectively replicates the WSE simulated by TRITON. Additionally, TR-UDN performs well in capturing WSE patterns and peak flows, aligning more closely with USGS observations, except in areas with milder slopes where conveyance discrepancies are observed. We further test the generalizability of our ML-based models using another smaller event. This paper shows that the TR-Emulator is effective for users and engineers to emulate a 2D hydrodynamic model, and the enhanced version of the TR-Emulator, TR-UDN, can be an efficient tool for predicting WSEs during urban flooding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Velocity Dependence of Rate‐And‐State Friction in Granular Fault Gouge and Implications for Slow‐Slip Events

Abstract The standard rate‐and‐state friction (RSF) has extensively captured frictional behaviors, but it fails to explain the velocity dependence of frictional stability transition and widespread slow‐slip events (SSEs) in experiments and nature adequately. An alternative microphysical Chen‐Niemeijer‐Spiers (CNS) model can well describe the velocity dependence of frictional behaviors of granular gouges. Using the original CNS model, standard RSF parameters can be quantified microphysically. However, some micro‐parameters are not easy to estimate quantitatively, making it difficult to extrapolate to natural and experimental conditions. Here, we simplify the microphysically‐derived RSF parameters including direct effect a , evolution effect b , and critical slip distance D c , as well as equivalent values ( a eq , b eq , and D eq ). The simplified friction parameters directly illustrate their velocity dependence, namely the essentially constant a , a eq , and D c , negatively velocity‐dependent b and b eq , as well as varying D eq for different laws. They are roughly consistent with experimental results in various fault gouges. A modified CNS model is further derived from the original CNS model, establishing a direct link between the standard RSF and CNS models. The modified CNS model exhibits virtually identical frictional behaviors to the original CNS, but differs from the standard RSF at large velocity perturbations. Moreover, the linearized stability analysis indicates that the critical stiffness for the modified CNS model is velocity‐dependent. Compared with the standard RSF, the modified CNS model not only explains the velocity dependence of frictional stability transition, but also exhibits a more gradual transition for SSEs with a broader range of stiffness ratios.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Analysis of a Disturbance Event with Inverter-Based Resources Using EMT Simulations

Increasing penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) necessitates newer methods of planning and analysis of disturbances. The existing phasor-domain transient stability (TS) analysis may not capture the dynamics of IBRs during fault events. Here, in this paper, electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations using high-fidelity detailed model of power grid and one of the affected photovoltaic (PV) plants during the Angeles Forest disturbance in 2018 are performed. In these simulations, the processes to develop EMT models of power grid from traditional phasor-domain TS data and PV plant from collected data are described. Thereafter, using these simulations, the response of the PV plant during the fault event in 2018 is replicated and a sensitivity analysis is performed. The sensitivity analysis consists of making changes to the components within the PV plant and in the power grid to evaluate the impact they have on the response observed by the PV plant during the fault event. This analysis provides an understanding of the components that impact the operation of a PV plant during fault events and provide guidance to system planners on the studies that need to be performed to maintain a reliable power grid as new IBR plants are integrated.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Development of a pattern recognition algorithm for reconstructing multi-particle events in the Mu2e detector

Mu2e is an upcoming experiment at Fermilab and its main goal is to search for the Charged Lepton Flavor Violation (CLFV) in the coherent transition of a muon into an electron on an Al target. In Mu2e, multi-particle events can occur simultaneously within the same time region and it is crucial to accurately identify each particle track, including signals, to improve the robustness of track finding methods and enhance reconstruction efficiency. ¯p annihilation is one of the background events and produces multiple particles that can mimic signal events. Additionally, photons from radiative pion captures can produce a γ → $e+e−$ pair, which can be used to calibrate the Mu2e momentum scale and the resolution. The Mu2e track reconstruction sequence begins by grouping hits produced in the tracker based on time and z coordinate information, called TimeCluster, and selected hits are processed to reconstruct helices and determine their momentum. The current pattern recognition algorithms identify a single helix per TimeCluster for single track events. A new pattern recognition algorithm is being developed to reconstruct multi-particle events and its features for finding multiple tracks and the current evaluation results are reported.

Kitagawa, H. [Pisa U.]↗

DEMographic MicrOSimulation (DEMOS) v2.0

DEMOS is an agent-based simulation framework used to evolve population demographic characteristics or lifecycle events such as education, marital status etc. DEMOS modules are designed to capture the interdependencies of short-term and long-term lifecycle events often influential in downstream transportation and land use modeling. An important facet of DEMOS is that it is dynamic, meaning it captures the impact of an agent's demographic characteristics in year 't' on their demographic status in year 't+1'. This has important consequences on medium- and long-term downstream modeling in different domains, such as transportation where decisions such as household vehicle transactions (i.e., buying, selling, or replacing a vehicle) depend current or past household vehicle holdings as well as household transitions. Other downstream modeling that can be enabled by DEMOS include building technology adoption or retrofit decisions, and more. DEMOS modules include: individual age progression year by year, individual mortality events, household restructuring events including marriage match-making; household birth events; individual education participation; individual labor force participation; child leaving household; household in-migration and out-migration for the region; household residence location choice and household mandatory destination choice (work and school). This version of DEMOS is tailored to be integrated with the land use simulation software UrbanSim.

Caicedo, Juan [UrbanSim, Inc.]↗

Detecting Falling Snow from Space

There is an increased interest in detecting and estimating the amount of falling snow reaching the Earth's surface in order to fully capture the atmospheric water cycle. An initial step toward global spaceborne falling snow algorithms includes determining the thresholds of detection for various active and passive sensor channel configurations, snow event cloud structures and microphysics, snowflake particle electromagnetic properties, and surface types. In this work, cloud resolving model simulations of a lake effect and synoptic snow event were used to determine the minimum amount of snow (threshold) that could be detected by the following instruments: the W -band radar of CloudSat, Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) Ku and Ka band, and the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) channels from 10 to 183 plus or minus 7 GHz. Eleven different snowflake shapes were used to compute radar reflectivities and passive brightness temperatures. Notable results include: (1) the W-Band radar has detection thresholds more than an order of magnitude lower than the future GPM sensors, (2) the cloud structure macrophysics influences the thresholds of detection for passive channels, (3) the snowflake microphysics plays a large role in the detection threshold for active and passive instruments, (4) with reasonable assumptions, "the passive 166 GHz channel has detection threshold values comparable to the GPM DPR Ku and Ka band radars with approximately 0.05 g per cubic meter detected at the surface, or an approximately 0.5-1 millimeter per hr. melted snow rate (equivalent to 0.5-2 centimeters per hr. solid fluffy snowflake rate). With detection levels of falling snow known, we can focus current and future retrieval efforts on detectable storms and concentrate advances on achievable results. We will also have an understanding of the light snowfall events missed by the sensors and not captured in the global estimates.

Gail Skofronick-Jackson↗