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At least 235 records · Page 13

Structural Uncertainty in the Sensitivity of Urban Temperatures to Anthropogenic Heat Flux

One key source of uncertainty for weather and climate models is structural uncertainty arising from the fact that these models must simplify or approximate complex physical, chemical, and biological processes that occur in the real world. However, structural uncertainty is rarely examined in the context of simulated effects of anthropogenic heat flux in cities. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model, it is found that the sensitivity of urban canopy air temperature to anthropogenic heat flux can differ by an order of magnitude depending on how anthropogenic heat flux is released to the urban environment. Moreover, varying model structures through changing the treatment of roof-air interaction and the parameterization of convective heat transfer between the canopy air and the atmosphere can affect the sensitivity of urban canopy air temperature by a factor of 4. Urban surface temperature and 2-m air temperature are less sensitive to the methods of anthropogenic heat flux release and the examined model structural variants than urban canopy air temperature, but their sensitivities to anthropogenic heat flux can still vary by as much as a factor of 4 for surface temperature and 2 for 2-m air temperature. Our study recommends using temperature sensitivity instead of temperature response to understand how various physical processes (and their representations in numerical models) modulate the simulated effects of anthropogenic heat flux.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FY20 SAM Code Developments and Validations for Transient Safety Analysis of Advanced non-LWRs

The System Analysis Module (SAM) is under development at Argonne National Laboratory as a modern system-level modeling and simulation tool for advanced non-light water reactor safety analyses. It utilizes the object-oriented application framework MOOSE to leverage the modern software environment and advanced numerical methods. The capabilities of SAM are being extended to enable the transient modeling, analysis, and design of various advanced nuclear reactor systems. This report summarizes major progress in SAM code development, capability enhancements, demonstration, and validation to support transient safety analysis of advanced non-LWRs. Rapid developments continued in fiscal year 2020 (FY20) to support various needs of the advanced reactor community, especially the NRC and industry on the licensing safety analysis of advanced reactor designs. Significant code changes were made to provide various capability enhancements, bug fixes, and user friendliness improvements. Major code updates are summarized in Section 1, while four important enhancements are detailed in Sections 2-5, including a multi-dimension flow model; reactivity feedback and decay heat models; control and trip system modeling, and additional fluid and solid thermophysical property models. Code validation activities in FY20 include using test data from the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF), the High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF), and several separate effects test facilities for pebble-bed modeling.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Ring Model Development and Validation for Prismatic HTGR Core Thermal-hydraulics and Safety Analysis

Because of the complex core geometry, prismatic high temperature gas-cooled reactors (prismatic HTGRs) often exhibit complex thermal fluid behaviors during both normal operating and transient conditions. Most HTGR designs rely on passive safety system for decay heat removal, such as the reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS). During postulated accidents like Pressurized Conduction Cooldown (PCC) event, the decay heat is first radially transferred from the core region to the reactor vessel outer surface, then to the RCCS cooling panels. The peak fuel temperature is controlled by heat transfer mechanisms with two distinctive characteristic length scales, i.e., the core-wise effective heat conduction and local heat conduction in the fuel pellet scale. As both length scales are essential to determine the fuel temperature, from the modeling perspective, computer codes must be able to capture heat transfer in both scales. This is challenging for both computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tools because of extremely large amount of computation resources required, and for system analysis codes because of the challenge to model the complex core geometry. Under the support of DOE-NE’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, efforts have been pursued to support HTGR technology development and its modeling and simulation needs. There is a particular need for advanced modeling and simulation tools to predict thermal-fluid behavior during safety-related transients. In our previous studies, the ring model was adopted in SAM and further developed to simulate the normal operating condition and a PCC event using the MHTGR-350 design of General Atomics as the reference design. This current work represents a continuation of these previous efforts, and the focus is to critically review and examine simplifications and assumptions made to develop the ring model, and to perform code validation using experimental data from an integral-effect test facility, the High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) at the Oregon State University. In this study, the test PG-27 from the HTTF test suite was selected for code validation purpose. The test PG-27 is a transient test designed to simulate the PCC event of the MHTGR design. Very good agreements between SAM prediction and experimental measurements were found in both coolant and solid structure temperatures during the transient.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Thermodynamic properties of ε -Fe with thermal electronic excitation effects on vibrational spectra

The thermodynamic properties of hexagonal-close-packed iron (ε–Fe) are essential for investigating the internal structure and dynamic properties of planetary cores. Despite their importance to planetary sciences, experimental investigations of ε–Fe at relevant conditions are still challenging. Therefore, ab initio calculations are crucial to elucidating the thermodynamic properties of this system. Here, we use a free energy calculation scheme based on the phonon gas model compatible with temperature-dependent phonon frequencies. We investigate the effects of electronic thermal excitations, which introduces a temperature dependence on phonon frequencies, and the implication for the thermodynamic properties of ε–Fe at extreme pressure (P) and temperature (T) conditions. We disregard phonon-phonon interactions, i.e., anharmonicity and their effect on phonon frequencies. Nevertheless, the current scheme is also applicable to T -dependent anharmonic frequencies. We conclude that the impact of thermal electronic excitations on vibrational properties is not significant up to ~4000 K at 200 GPa but should not be ignored at higher temperatures or pressures. However, the static free energy F st must always include the effect of thermal excitation fully in a continuum of T. Furthermore, our results for isentropic equations of state show good agreement with data from recent ramp compression experiments up to 1400 GPa conducted at the National Ignition Facility.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

A physics-informed multi-agents model to predict thermo-oxidative/hydrolytic aging of elastomers

This paper introduces a novel physics-informed multi-agents constitutive model to propose prediction in quasi-static constitutive behavior of cross-linked elastomer and the loss of mechanical performance during environmental aging. The presented model is used to simulate the effect of single-mechanism chemical aging (i.e. thermal-inducedor hydrolytic aging) on the behavior of the material in this hybrid framework. Those environmental single-mechanism damages change the polymer matrix over time due to massive chain scission, chain formations, and changing the arrangement of molecules in the polymer matrix. Here we propose a data-driven super-constrained machine-learned engine to represent damage in the polymer matrix and capture the changes in material behavior, including its inelastic features such as Mullins effect and permanent set in the course of aging. We have simplified the 3D stress–strain tensor mapping problem into a small number of super-constrained 1D mapping problems by means of a sequential order reduction. An assembly of multiple replicated conditional neural-network learning-agents (L-agents) is trained to systematically simplify the high-dimensional mapping problem into multiple 1D problems, each represented by a different type of agent. Our hybrid framework is designed to capture the effect of deformation history, aging time, and aging temperature. The model is validated with respect to a comprehensive set of experiments specifically designed to benchmark model capabilities and also against available data in the literature. Thermodynamic consistency and frame independency have been verified. Besides acceptable predictive abilities, a significant reduction of computational cost to predict behavior at multiple states of deformation is the most significant feature of this model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

srlife : A software tool for estimating the life of high temperature concentrating solar receivers. Part II – Ceramic receivers

As Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies aim for higher operating temperatures to enhance efficiency and meet industrial process heat demands, high-temperature metallic materials, including nickel-based superalloys, face challenges in maintaining structural integrity. Advanced ceramics offer a promising alternative due to their superior high-temperature strength. However, accurately assessing the performance of ceramic components requires a fundamentally different approach from that used for metallic components. This Part II of a two-part paper describes the integration of ceramic statistical failure models within srlife – an open-source tool for predicting the life of high-temperature CSP receivers. These models account for the inherent variability in ceramic strength, as well as the effects of subcritical crack growth (SCG) under high temperature cyclic loads. Here, the paper includes an example problem that demonstrate the process of evaluating ceramic receivers using srlife. Part I details the life estimation process for metallic receivers (i.e. creep-fatigue life) along with input and output data structure, thermohydraulic analysis, and structural analysis. The complete tool is available as open-source software at https://github.com/srlife-project/srlife and can be installed via the PyPi package manager (https://pypi.org). By supporting both ceramic and metallic receiver analyses, srlife facilitates fair comparisons between competing metallic and ceramic designs, enabling accurate evaluations of plant efficiency and the economic benefits of ceramic solar receivers and other components.

High temperature ceramic receivers↗

A quantitative phase-field model for gas bubble evolution in UO2

Due to the large formation energy of vacancies and noble gas atoms in the form of interstitials or substitutional atoms in nuclear fuel (UO2), the thermodynamic equilibrium concentrations of these species are very low in the nuclear fuel matrix even at very high temperatures, which imposes difficulties upon the quantitative study of bubble evolution via the phase-field method. In this study, a quantitative phase-field model is proposed to deal with this problem. The system’s free energy density is derived according to the principles of thermodynamics, with consideration of the elastic effect and with the use of real material parameters from experiments. The model is useful for the study of the kinetics of gas bubble growth with very dilute concentrations of vacancy and gas atoms in the matrix. This model is applied to study single bubble growth and multiple bubble growth under various concentrations of vacancy and gas atoms and at various temperatures. The elastic effect and the effects of the generation rate of vacancies and gas atoms on bubble growth are analyzed.

low defect concentration, nuclear fuel, gas bubble↗

Autoignition behavior of gasoline/ethanol blends at engine-relevant conditions

Ethanol is an attractive oxygenate increasingly used for blending with petroleum-derived gasoline yielding beneficial combustion and emissions behavior for a range of internal combustion engine schemes, including stoichiometric spark-ignition and low temperature combustion (LTC). As such, it is important to fundamentally understand the autoignition behavior of gasoline/ethanol blends. This work utilizes a rapid compression machine (RCM) and a homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) engine to experimentally quantify changes in fuel reactivity, through ignition delay times and preliminary heat release, for blends of 0 to 30% vol./vol. into a full boiling range research gasoline (FACE-F). Diluted/stoichiometric and undiluted/fuel-lean conditions are explored covering a wide range of compressed temperatures and pressures relevant to conventional and advanced, gasoline combustion engines. Detailed chemical kinetic modeling is undertaken using a recently updated gasoline surrogate model in conjunction with a five-component surrogate to model the RCM experiments and provide chemical insight into the perturbative effects of ethanol on the autoignition process. The diluted/stoichiometric RCM measurements reveal that within the low-temperature regime ethanol retards first-stage and main ignition delay times, and suppresses both the rates and extents of low-temperature heat release (LTHR), while within the intermediate-temperature regime ethanol only causes slight changes. Good agreement of ignition delay time and preliminary heat release prediction is found between model and experimental results. Sensitivity and flux analyses further show that ethanol blending effects are dominated by the competition between the H-atom abstraction from ethanol and other fuel components by OH radical at low temperatures and by HO 2 radical at intermediate temperatures. These findings are consistent across both fuel loading conditions explored in this study. In addition, when HCCI engine experiments are mapped onto undiluted/lean RCM measurements under a constant combustion phasing scenario, good correspondence between the two apparatuses is observed for LTHR and start of high-temperature heat release. Finally, the current study highlights the importance of characterizing LTHR in predicting fuel behaviors in high-boost/low-temperature engines, and demonstrates that RCM experiments can provide an alternative, and more-efficient avenue for such characterization.

02 PETROLEUM↗

The melt memory effects in polymer crystallization

This paper presents a systematic review of the literature on the melt memory effects observed in polymers, an area that has engendered considerable debate for over 50 years. Recent advances in experimental techniques have provided fresh insights into how a polymer's thermal history influences its recrystallization behavior. It has been observed that given other conditions unchanged, the crystallization temperature during recrystallization decreases with an increase in the melt temperature T s above the melting point T m until a critical melt temperature is attained. This phenomenon also extends to the half-time of crystallization and the secondary structures, such as lamellar thickness, of semi-crystalline polymers. Despite these findings, a comprehensive constitutive model that encapsulates polymer melt memory effects remains elusive. Cutting-edge instrumentation, including in situ small and wide-angle X-ray scattering, temperature-controlled Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, and flash differential scanning calorimetry, have posed significant challenges to the traditional nucleation and growth models established in the 1970s. These models are foundational to our understanding of polymer crystallization, which is an integral part of polymer processing and production. In this review, the historical contours of this discourse are traced, with an examination of both the recent experimental breakthroughs and theoretical advancements pertinent to polymer melt memory effects. In conclusion, this paper delves into the prevailing theories of polymer nucleation and crystallization and engages with theoretical discussions and numerical simulations that attempt to elucidate and rationalize these melt memory phenomena.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Sonora Substellar Atmosphere Models. II. Cholla: A Grid of Cloud-free, Solar Metallicity Models in Chemical Disequilibrium for the JWST Era

Exoplanet and brown dwarf atmospheres commonly show signs of disequilibrium chemistry. In the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) era, high-resolution spectra of directly imaged exoplanets will allow the characterization of their atmospheres in more detail, and allow systematic tests for the presence of chemical species that deviate from thermochemical equilibrium in these atmospheres. Constraining the presence of disequilibrium chemistry in these atmospheres as a function of parameters such as their effective temperature and surface gravity will allow us to place better constraints on the physics governing these atmospheres. This paper is part of a series of works presenting the Sonora grid of atmosphere models. In this paper, we present a grid of cloud-free, solar metallicity atmospheres for brown dwarfs and wide-separation giant planets with key molecular species such as CH 4 , H 2 O, CO, and NH 3 in disequilibrium. Our grid covers atmospheres with T eff ∈ [500 K, 1300 K], log g ∈ [3.0, 5.5] (cgs) and an eddy diffusion parameter of logK zz = 2,4 and 7 (cgs). We study the effect of different parameters within the grid on the temperature and composition profiles of our atmospheres. We discuss their effect on the near-infrared colors of our model atmospheres and the detectability of CH 4 , H 2 O, CO, and NH 3 using the JWST. We compare our models against existing MKO and Spitzer observations of brown dwarfs and verify the importance of disequilibrium chemistry for T dwarf atmospheres. Finally, we discuss how our models can help constrain the vertical structure and chemical composition of these atmospheres.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Warming of the lower Columbia River , 1853 to 2018

Abstract Water temperature is a critical ecological indicator; however, few studies have statistically modeled century‐scale trends in riverine or estuarine water temperature, or their cause. Here, we recover, digitize, and analyze archival temperature measurements from the 1850s onward to investigate how and why water temperatures in the lower Columbia River are changing. To infill data gaps and explore changes, we develop regression models of daily historical Columbia River water temperature using time‐lagged river flow and air temperature as the independent variables. Models were developed for three time periods (mid‐19th, mid‐20th, and early 21st century), using archival and modern measurements (1854–1876; 1938–present). Daily and monthly averaged root‐mean‐square errors overall are 0.89°C and 0.77°C, respectively for the 1938–2018 period. Results suggest that annual averaged water temperature increased by 2.2°C ± 0.2°C since the 1850s, a rate of 1.3°C ± 0.1°C/century. Increased water temperatures are seasonally dependent. An increase of approximately 2.0°C ± 0.2°C/century occurs in the July–Dec time‐frame, while springtime trends are statistically insignificant. Rising temperatures change the probability of exceeding ecologically important thresholds; since the 1850s, the number of days with water temperatures over 20°C increased from ~5 to 60 per year, while the number below 2°C decreased from ~10 to 0 days/per year. Overall, the modern system is warmer, but exhibits less temperature variability. The reservoir system reduces sensitivity to short‐term atmospheric forcing. Statistical experiments within our modeling framework suggest that increased water temperature is driven by warming air temperatures (~29%), altered river flow (~14%), and water resources management (~57%).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Open‐source photovoltaic model pipeline validation against well‐characterized system data

Abstract All freely available plane‐of‐array (POA) transposition models and photovoltaic (PV) temperature and performance models in pvlib‐python and pvpltools‐python were examined against multiyear field data from Albuquerque, New Mexico. The data include different PV systems composed of crystalline silicon modules that vary in cell type, module construction, and materials. These systems have been characterized via IEC 61853‐1 and 61853‐2 testing, and the input data for each model were sourced from these system‐specific test results, rather than considering any generic input data (e.g., manufacturer's specification [spec] sheets or generic Panneau Solaire [PAN] files). Six POA transposition models, 7 temperature models, and 12 performance models are included in this comparative analysis. These freely available models were proven effective across many different types of technologies. The POA transposition models exhibited average normalized mean bias errors (NMBEs) within ±3%. Most PV temperature models underestimated temperature exhibiting mean and median residuals ranging from −6.5°C to 2.7°C; all temperature models saw a reduction in root mean square error when using transient assumptions over steady state. The performance models demonstrated similar behavior with a first and third interquartile NMBEs within ±4.2% and an overall average NMBE within ±2.3%. Although differences among models were observed at different times of the day/year, this study shows that the availability of system‐specific input data is more important than model selection. For example, using spec sheet or generic PAN file data with a complex PV performance model does not guarantee a better accuracy than a simpler PV performance model that uses system‐specific data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Parametric study of residual stress formation in Wire and Arc Additive Manufacturing

Here, a finite element model was created to simulate the Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing (WAAM) thermal and mechanical processes of Inconel 718 on a A36 steel substrate, as well as the effects of process parameters on Residual Stress (RS). The model was verified using temperature data obtained from three thermocouples attached to the upper surface of the build substrate and micro-strain measurements obtained from Neutron Diffraction (ND) measurement. The model was then used to study the effects of changing the torch travel speed and interlayer dwell time. The study found that travel speed has little effect on RS when maintaining the same heat input rate. As well, the interlayer dwell time has a strong effect on RS. Reducing the dwell time causes the stress profiles to become relatively uniform and a high-stress region extends deeper along the build direction. This study provides important insight into mechanical stresses inside large walls made by the WAAM method.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Deforestation Increases Vegetation Vulnerability to Drought Across Biomes

Land use and land cover changes have altered terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage, but their impacts on ecosystem sensitivity to drought and temperature fluctuations have not been evaluated spatially over the globe. We estimate drought and temperature sensitivities of ecosystems using vegetation greenness from satellite observations and vegetation biomass from dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulations. Using a space-for-time substitution with satellite data, we first illustrate the effects of vegetation cover changes on drought and temperature sensitivity and compare them with the effects estimated from DGVMs. We also compare simulations forced by scenarios with and without land cover changes to estimate the historical land cover change effects. Satellite data and vegetation models both show that converting forests to grasslands results in a more negative or decreased positive sensitivity of vegetation greenness or biomass to drought. Significant variability exists among models for other types of land cover transitions. We identify substantial effects of historical land cover changes on drought sensitivity from model simulations with a generally positive direction globally. Deforestation can lead to either an increased negative sensitivity, as drought-tolerant forests are replaced by grasslands based on model ensemble mean, or a decreased negative sensitivity, since forests under current land cover are predicted to exhibit greater drought resistance compared to those under pre-industrial land cover. Overall, our findings emphasize the critical role of forests in maintaining ecosystem stability and resistance to drought and temperature fluctuations, thereby implying their importance in stabilizing the carbon stock under increasingly extreme climate conditions.

Xiao, Chenwei [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochem↗

Robust charge-density-wave correlations in the electron-doped single-band Hubbard model

There is growing evidence that the hole-doped single-band Hubbard and t–J models do not have a superconducting ground state reflective of the high-temperature cuprate superconductors but instead have striped spin- and charge-ordered ground states. Nevertheless, it is proposed that these models may still provide an effective low-energy model for electron-doped materials. Here we study the finite temperature spin and charge correlations in the electron-doped Hubbard model using quantum Monte Carlo dynamical cluster approximation calculations and contrast their behavior with those found on the hole-doped side of the phase diagram. We find evidence for a charge modulation with both checkerboard and unidirectional components decoupled from any spin-density modulations. These correlations are inconsistent with a weak-coupling description based on Fermi surface nesting, and their doping dependence agrees qualitatively with resonant inelastic x-ray scattering measurements. Our results provide evidence that the single-band Hubbard model describes the electron-doped cuprates.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Evaluation and development of surface layer scheme representation of temperature inversions over boreal forests in Arctic wintertime conditions

Abstract. In this study, the Noah land surface model used in conjunction with the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić surface layer scheme (hereafter, Noah-MYJ) and the Noah multiphysics scheme (Noah-MP) from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 4.5.1 mesoscale model are evaluated with regard to their performance in reproducing positive temperature gradients over forested areas in the Arctic winter. First, simplified versions of the WRF schemes, recoded in Python, are compared with conceptual models of the surface layer in order to gain insight into the dependence of the temperature gradient on the wind speed at the top of the surface layer. It is shown that the WRF schemes place strong limits on the turbulent collapse, leading to lower surface temperature gradient at low wind speeds than in the conceptual models. We implemented modifications to the WRF schemes to correct this effect. The original and modified versions of Noah-MYJ and Noah-MP are then evaluated compared to long-term measurements at the Ameriflux Poker Flat Research Range, a forest site in interior Alaska. Noah-MP is found to perform better than Noah-MYJ because the former is a two-layer model which explicitly takes into account the effect of the forest canopy. Indeed, a non-negligible temperature gradient is maintained below the canopy at high wind speeds, leading to overall larger gradients than in the absence of vegetation. Furthermore, the modified versions are found to perform better than the original versions of each scheme because they better reproduce strong temperature gradients at low wind speeds.

Geology↗

Measuring higher-order moments of neutron-time-of-flight data for cryogenic inertial confinement fusion implosions on OMEGA

Ion temperatures serve as an important diagnostic for inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosions. In direct-drive ICF experiments on OMEGA, neutron-time-of-flight (nTOF) data are used to infer the ion temperature of the fusing plasma produced in the implosion experiment. The analysis of the nTOF data requires an assumption about the shape of the underlying source signal. Since the source nTOF signal is a near-replica of the neutron energy spectrum, an ideal Gaussian shape, corresponding to the neutron energy spectrum of a uniform temperature plasma, is routinely employed. However, spatial and temporal variations of the ion temperature in the plasma give rise to higher-order moments, which were first described by Munro [Nucl. Fusion 56, 036001 (2016)]. In this work, we show a simpler alternative analysis to derive moments of the neutron energy spectrum for a plasma with variations in ion temperature. We also present a revised analysis of measured nTOF signals that uses a model with an additional degree of freedom to take into account the effect of ion temperature variations on the shape of the spectrum. Compared to presently used nTOF analysis, the revised analysis yields on average ≈2× more accurate fits to the data and up to 15% higher ion temperatures for cryogenic experiments. As a result, we quantify the ion temperature inflation caused by radially symmetric fluid flows, which are present even in a symmetric implosion, and which serve as a lower bound on the ion temperature inflation in real implosions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Latent-Space Dynamics for Prediction and Fault Detection in Geothermal Power Plant Operations

This paper presents a latent-space dynamic neural network (LSDNN) model for the multi-step-ahead prediction and fault detection of a geothermal power plant’s operation. The model was trained to learn the dynamics of the power generation process from multivariate time-series data and the effects of exogenous variables, such as control adjustment and ambient temperature. In the LSDNN model, an encoder–decoder architecture was designed to capture cross-correlation among different measured variables. In addition, a latent space dynamic structure was proposed to propagate the dynamics in the latent space to enable prediction. The prediction power of the LSDNN was utilized for monitoring a geothermal power plant and detecting abnormal events. The model was integrated with principal component analysis (PCA)-based process monitoring techniques to develop a fault-detection procedure. The performance of the proposed LSDNN model and fault detection approach was demonstrated using field data collected from a geothermal power plant.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗