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At least 235 records · Page 13

Soil carbon sequestration potential and the identification of hotspots in the Eastern Corn Belt of the United States

Soil carbon sequestration is a significant CO 2 mitigation strategy but precise assessments of sequestration require spatially explicit modeling of potential changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) in response to soil, climate, land condition and management interactions. We assessed the SOC sequestration potential of the Eastern Corn Belt (ECB) in the USA (Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) in response to the adoption of conservation farming practices and land use change (pasture and forestation) using the SOCRATES model. Input data was provided through an intersection of the STATSGO, National Land Cover Database and a PRISM climate surface. At the end of the 20th century, the 15.3 Mha of cropped soils in the ECB contained 632 Tg C, an estimated reduction of 52% since the introduction of agriculture in the mid-1800s. Complete adoption of no-tillage practices on Prime Cropland would potentially recover 147 Tg SOC over 20 years, whereas a continuation of conventional tillage would produce a loss of 35 Tg SOC. Sequestration hotspots (> 500 Gg increase in SOC) under no-tillage cover 2.3 Mha providing 28 Tg C over 20 years. The conversion of Marginal (non-Prime) agricultural lands to Forests would yield an additional 13 Tg C in SOC and 381 Tg C in aboveground biomass. The rehabilitation of Minelands to Forest would yield an additional 4 Tg C in SOC and 42 Tg C in biomass. Here, opportunities to sequester C in the ECB via tillage and reforestation are substantial and should be incorporated into regional and national climate change mitigation strategies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrogeochemical characteristics and sources of salinity of the springs near Wenquanzhen in the eastern Sichuan Basin, China

Natural springs have the potential to provide important information on hydrogeochemical processes within aquifers. This study used traditional and classic technical methods and procedures to determine the characteristics and evolution of springs to gain further knowledge on the differences between hot saline springs and cold fresh springs. In a short river segment near Wenquanzhen in the eastern Sichuan Basin, southwest China, several natural springs coexist with total dissolved solids (TDS) ranging from less than 1 to 15 g/L and temperatures from 15 to 40 °C. The springs emanate from the outcropping Lower and Middle Triassic carbonates in the river valley cutting the core of an anticline. The cold springs are of Cl·HCO{sub 3}-Na·Ca and Cl·SO{sub 4}-Na types, and the hot saline springs are mainly of Cl-Na type. The chemistry of the springs has undergone some changes with time. The stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopes indicate that the spring waters are of a meteoric origin. The salinity of the springs originates from dissolution of minerals, including halite, gypsum, calcite and dolomite. The evolution of the springs involves the following mechanisms: the groundwater receives recharge from infiltration of precipitation, then undergoes deep circulation in the core of the anticline (incongruent dissolution of the salt-bearing strata occurs), and emerges in the river valley in the form of hot springs with high TDS. Groundwater also undergoes shallow circulation in the northern and southern flanks of the anticline and appears in the river valley in the form of cold springs with low TDS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

High-Resolution Simulation of Snowfall over the Korean Eastern Coastal Region Using WRF Model: Sensitivity to Domain Nesting-Down Strategy

The eastern coastal area of the Korean Peninsula, Yeongdong region, often experiences severe snowfall during the winter season. We studied here the development mechanism of a snowfall case occurred in February 2014 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at the convection-permitting resolution of 1 km. The model reasonably captured the observed snowfall, and three factors were discovered as important contributors to this snowfall case: a temperature contrast between land and ocean, a high-pressure system over the northeastern part of the Korean Peninsula, and the mountainous terrain. Cold and dry air blown from the high-pressure system gains heat and moisture when it passes over the East Sea enhancing the low-level instability. When the air mass reaches the coastline, updraft is generated by the density difference with the continental atmosphere and by the mountain slope. Further sensitivity experiments were conducted by adjusting strategies of nesting down (offline and online). Sensitivity experiments consist of three offline nesting experiments with different boundary condition update frequencies in 6, 3 and 1 h and one online nesting experiment that updates the boundary condition every integration time step. The major snowfall along the mountain range located in the middle of domain does not change significantly regardless of the nesting frequency. The offline nesting causes unphysical discontinuities of precipitation along the north and east sides of lateral boundary where wind blows in, which are caused by the absence of condensed hydrometeor variables in the lateral boundary condition. The domain nesting strategy tested in this study has dramatically impacted on the upper troposphere structure in the model: artificial fluctuations at the upper troposphere in the offline nesting simulations were significantly alleviated in the online nesting simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Biophysical and hydrological effects of future climate change including trends in CO 2 , in the St. Joseph River watershed, Eastern Corn Belt

Future climate change has the potential to significantly impact crop growth, both directly due to CO 2 enhancement and indirectly, through temperature and moisture impacts. Here, this work investigates the biophysical and hydrological effects of future climate change, including trends in CO 2 , in the St. Joseph River watershed, Eastern Corn Belt. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was first modified to take dynamic CO 2 concentration as input. A regional crop leaf development curve from Landsat TM imagery was also used to adjust model performance in corn leaf area development for the historical period. A multi-objective calibration strategy was employed to ensure acceptable simulation of streamflow, seasonal crop growth and interannual crop yield simultaneously. The model was then driven by future climate change and CO 2 data from three Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs), which are GFDL-CM2.1.1, NCAR-PCM1.3, and UKMO-HADCM3.1, under three Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), including B1, A1 B and A2 to investigate crop and streamflow response in two future periods: the near future (2021–2050) and the far future (2061–2090). The St. Joseph River watershed is expected to experience more winter and spring precipitation, but slightly decreasing summer precipitation. Due to increasing temperature and decreasing summer moisture, more drought stress is predicted. Both annual total aeration and drought stress are projected to be more variable in both future periods. Although future CO 2 enhancement will benefit the crop growth and final yield by improving radiation use efficiency (RUE) and reducing drought stresses, simulated corn yield still decreased by 6% in the near future period, and 16% in the far future period due to the combined effect of both climate change and CO 2 enhancement. Streamflow redistribution is also predicted in the future. Stream discharge is projected to increase for the whole flow range in the near future period. For the far future period, high flows are expected to decrease, while low flows are expected to increase, indicating more hydrologic drought and flood events in the St. Joseph River watershed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Chemical and isotope compositions of shallow groundwater in areas impacted by hydraulic fracturing and surface mining in the Central Appalachian Basin, Eastern United States

Here, hydraulic fracturing of shale deposits has greatly increased the productivity of the natural gas industry by allowing it to exploit previously inaccessible reservoirs. Previous research has demonstrated that this practice has the potential to contaminate shallow aquifers with methane (CH 4 ) from deeper formations. This study compares concentrations and isotopic compositions of CH 4 sampled from domestic groundwater wells in Letcher County, Eastern Kentucky in order to characterize its occurrence and origins in relation to both neighboring hydraulically fractured natural gas wells and surface coal mines. The studied groundwater showed concentrations of CH 4 ranging from 0.05 mg/L to 10 mg/L, thus, no immediate remediation is required. The δ 13 C values of CH 4 ranged from 66‰ to 16‰, and δ 2 H values ranged from –286‰ to –86‰, suggesting an immature thermogenic and mixed biogenic/thermogenic origin. The occurrence of CH 4 was not correlated with proximity to hydraulically fractured natural gas wells. Generally, CH 4 occurrence corresponded with groundwater abundant in Na + , Cl – , and HCO 3 – , and with low concentrations of SO 4 –2 . The CH 4 and SO 4 –2 concentrations were best predicted by the oxidation/reduction potential of the studied groundwater. CH 4 was abundant in more reducing waters, and SO 4 –2 was abundant in more oxidizing waters. Additionally, groundwater in greater proximity to surface mining was more likely to be oxidized. This, in turn, might have increased the likelihood of CH 4 oxidation in shallow groundwater.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Successful post-translocation reproduction and genetic integration of eastern box turtles

Translocation is a conservation tool increasingly used in the recovery of at-risk species, including turtles, which are one of the world's most imperiled taxa. Post-release monitoring is essential to determine the outcomes of a given intervention and inform future efforts. However, monitoring typically focuses on post-release survival and spatial ecology whereas few studies assess the genetic and demographic outcomes. The eastern box turtle (Terrapene carolina carolina) is in decline throughout its range and is increasingly likely to be subject to translocations, including efforts to repatriate animals confiscated from the illegal wildlife trade. In 2019–2021, we translocated two groups of box turtles to the Savannah River Site in South Carolina, USA, including confiscated turtles (n = 208) and surrendered long-term captive turtles (LTC; n = 35). In 2022, we monitored a subset of confiscated (n = 12), LTC (n = 15), and sympatric resident (n = 8) females for reproductive output and genotyped their offspring and candidate sires to assign parentage. We found that all groups of females produced eggs at a similar rate and produced viable offspring but that the most recently translocated group (LTCs) displayed lower hatching success. Parentage assignment revealed that all groups sired offspring and mated with each other. Furthermore, our results broadly indicate that confiscated and LTC box turtles can successfully reproduce and genetically integrate following their release into wild populations, and that translocation may serve as a valuable tool for local population recovery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Chemical and isotopic evolution of flowback fluids from the Utica Gas Shale Play, Eastern Ohio USA

For this work, hydraulic fracturing flowback fluids were collected from two Utica/Point Pleasant well pads in eastern Ohio. One site was in the wet gas zone (UPPW), while the site ~50 km south consisted of four wells on the same pad in the dry gas zone (UPPS). Samples of input fluids also were collected before and during hydraulic fracturing. Flowback fluids are Na-Ca-Cl brines with total dissolved salt (TDS) concentrations that increase over several months from ~100 to 200 g/L. The slightly higher TDS of the dry gas fluids are in part due to recycled flowback used as input fluids, and in part due to lower volume of water used in hydraulic fracturing. Concentrations of most major ions (Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , Na + , Sr2 + , Fe, Mn, Cl – , Br – ) are similar for the five wells sampled, although small but systematic changes occur in the major element ratios over time. Most notably, an increase in the Sr/Cl ratio corresponds to an increase in the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratio in the fluids, suggesting interactions with a more radiogenic Sr source in the subsurface. Dissolved Ba concentrations and Ra activities were different between the two sites, reflecting a high SO 4 2– fluid used at the UPPW site, and water-rock reactions occurring during hydraulic fracturing at the UPPS site. Water oxygen (δ 18 O) and hydrogen (δD) isotopes for input fluids used in the UPPW4 well and fresh water used for the UPPS wells fall on the Global Meteoric waterline (GMWL). Flowback fluids from both sites are relatively enriched in δ 18 O and δD compared to the input, but do not appear to follow a simple mixing trend, suggesting reaction and isotopic exchange with carbonates and fractionation due to imbibition in the rock. Cl isotopes, δ 37 Cl in the FP fluids varied from ~ –0.43 to +0.13‰, the largest variation was observed in the earlier stages of flowback, while in the later stages δ 37 Cl exhibited a small but systematic increase over time, suggesting diffusion control of isotopic composition. Some of the trace species measured (dissolved Fe, Mn, thiosulfate and organic acids) do not follow the same trends as the major ions, suggesting contributions from input fluids, or microbially mediated reactions are exerting control on their concentrations. Input water chemistry exerts an important control on the Sr and Ba concentrations in flowback water. High SO 4 2– in the input fluids used for hydraulically fracturing the wet gas well leads to precipitation of barite-celestite in flowback fluids.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Comparison of high-pressure CO 2 sorption isotherms on Eastern and Western US coals

Accurate estimation of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sorption capacity of coal is important for planning the CO 2 sequestration efforts. In this work, we investigated sorption and swelling behavior of several Eastern and Western US coal samples from the Central Appalachian Basin and from San Juan Basin. The CO 2 sorption isotherms have been completed at 55°C for as received and dried samples. The role of mineral components in coal, the coal swelling, the effects of temperature and moisture, and the error propagation have been analyzed. Changes in void volume due to dewatering and other factors such as temporary caging of carbon dioxide molecules in coal matrix were identified among the main factors affecting accuracy of the carbon dioxide sorption isotherms. The (helium) void volume in the sample cells was measured before and after the sorption isotherm experiments and was used to build the volume-corrected data plots.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Assessing the thermal maturity of black shales using vitrinite reflectance: Insights from Devonian black shales in the eastern United States

Thermal maturity of source rocks indicated by vitrinite reflectance (R o ) is an important and reliable parameter to determine the petroleum potential of sedimentary basins. Originally, R o was used to characterize the degree of coalification of coals and thus works well for coal seams, but it has limitations when used to determine the thermal maturity of black shale successions. A suite of six coal-shale pairs from the Upper Devonian black shale formations in the eastern United States (New Albany Shale, Ohio Shale, Dunkirk Shale, and Rhinestreet Shale) was selected to study the applicability of R o in assessing the thermal maturity of black shale successions. The results show that vitrinite in the studied coal samples is dominated by collotelinite, whereas vitrinite in black shales occurs as small dispersed particles (~5 μm) in the mineral matrix. When comparing the size and morphology of dispersed vitrinite particles in shales and collotelinite fragments in coals, vitrinite in shales and adjacent coals should have the same origin. The measured mean random R o of vitrinite in coals ranges from 0.51–0.68%, and is 0.04–0.11% (average 0.07%) lower than that of dispersed vitrinite particles in enclosing shales. This observation contrasts with previously reported R o suppression in liptinite-rich black shales. A high standard deviation of R o measurements indicates a highly heterogeneous nature of vitrinite in black shales. Three mechanisms can be envisioned to contribute to the higher R o of dispersed vitrinite particles in black shales relative to enclosed coals. First, small vitrinite particles may become more oxidized because small particles are more frequently suspended during transport to the site of deposition and reworking of bottom sediments after deposition than large pieces of driftwood that will turn into enclosed coal lenses during burial diagenesis. Second, misidentification of zooclast (e.g., chitinozoan) fragments as vitrinite due to loss of diagnostic morphology. Third, various macerals in the vitrinite group (e.g., corpogelinite and collotelinite) may have had different original reflectance values. Based on the petrographic characteristics of vitrinite and vitrinite-like particles, caution should be applied when using the R o values of dispersed vitrinite and vitrinite-like particles in black shales as indicators of thermal maturity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A nutrient limitation mosaic in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean

The Indian Ocean accounts for about one fifth of global ocean net primary production but remains undersampled relative to other major ocean basins. The eastern tropical Indian Ocean is characterized by extremely low concentrations of both macronutrients and the micronutrient iron. In this work, we measured concentrations of dissolved and particulate trace metals (Fe, Mn, Zn, Pb) in the upper ocean along the GO-SHIP IO9N transect (28° S to 17° N, mostly along the 95° E meridian) during a cruise in April 2016. Cellular quotas (metal/C) of Fe, Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, and Zn were measured in small eukaryotic flagellates (2-7 μm). Deckboard bottle incubation experiments were conducted at one station in each of three putative biogeochemical regions: southern Indian Ocean gyre (S10, 28-10° S); equatorial Indian Ocean (EqIO, 10° S - 5° N); Bay of Bengal (BoB, 5-17° N). Nitrate and phosphate were below detection limits in surface waters across the transect. Dissolved and particulate Fe were < 0.2 nM south of 10° N and lowest in the EqIO. Cellular Fe/C quotas were approximately 6 μmoL/mol and did not vary along the transect, nor did cellular Mn/C or Co/C quotas. Cellular Ni/C and Zn/C quotas were significantly higher at the southern terminus. Nutrient addition experiments indicated that N was the primary limiting nutrient for autotrophs using chlorophyll $a$ as a proxy, but biomass measurements of specific phytoplankton groups pointed to a more complex nutrient limitation mosaic. Prochlorococcus was limited by N in the EqIO but by multiple nutrients (N, P, and/or Fe) in the BoB. Synechococcus was limited by N in the EqIO and BoB, while small (< 20 μm) eukaryotic phytoplankton were limited by N in the EqIO and by multiple nutrients in the BoB. Stoichiometric comparisons of cells and underlying source waters indicate a gradient of N and Fe stress along the transect. These data demonstrate that autotroph communities are poised near multiple nutrient limitation horizons in extremely oligotrophic waters far from micronutrient sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long-range transported North American wildfire aerosols observed in marine boundary layer of eastern North Atlantic

Wildfire is a major source of biomass burning aerosols, which greatly impact Earth climate. Tree species in North America (NA) boreal forests can support high-intensity crown fires, resulting in elevated injection height and longer lifetime (on the order of months) of the wildfire aerosols. Given the long lifetime, the properties of aged NA wildfire aerosols are required to understand and quantify their effects on radiation and climate. Here we present comprehensive characterization of climatically relevant properties, including optical properties and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activities of aged NA wildfire aerosols, emitted from the record-breaking Canadian wildfires in August 2017. Despite the extreme injection height of ~12 km, some of the wildfire plumes descended into the marine boundary layer in the eastern North Atlantic over a period of ~2 weeks, owing to the dry intrusions behind mid-latitude cyclones. The aged wildfire aerosols have high single scattering albedos at 529 nm (ω 529 ; 0.92–0.95) while low absorption Ångström exponents (Å abs ) at 464 nm/648 nm (0.7–0.9). In comparison, Å abs of fresh/slightly aged ones are typically 1.4–3.5. This low Å abs 529 and low Å abs ~110 nm diameter) with thick non-absorbing coatings. The accelerated descent of the wildfire plume also led to strong increase of CCN concentration at the supersaturation levels representative of marine low clouds. The hygroscopicity parameter, κ CCN , of the aged wildfire aerosols varies from 0.2 to 0.4, substantially lower than that of background marine boundary layer aerosols. However, the high fraction of particles with large diameter (i.e., within accumulation size ranges, ~100–250 nm) compensates for the low values of κ, and as a result, the aged NA wildfire aerosols contribute more efficiently to CCN population. These results provide direct evidence that the long-range transported NA wildfires can strongly influence CCN concentration in remote marine boundary layer, therefore the radiative properties of marine low clouds. Given the expected increases of NA wildfire intensity and frequency and regular occurrence of dry intrusion following mid-latitude cyclones, the influence of NA wildfire aerosols on CCN and clouds in remote marine environment need to be further examined.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Co-optimizing Generation and Transmission Expansion with Wind Power in Large-Scale Power Grids Implementation in the US Eastern Interconnection

This paper studies the generation and transmission expansion co-optimization problem with a high wind power penetration rate in the US Eastern Interconnection (EI) power grid. In this paper, the generation and transmission expansion problem for the EI system is modeled as a mixed-integer programming (MIP) problem. Our paper also analyzed a time series generation method to capture the variation and correlation of both load and wind power across regions. The obtained series can be easily introduced into the expansion planning problem and then solved through existing MIP solvers. Simulation results show that the proposed planning model and series generation method can improve the expansion result significantly through modeling more detailed information of wind and load variation among regions in the US EI system. Moreover, the improved expansion plan that combines generation and transmission will aid system planners and policy makers to maximize the social welfare in large-scale power grids.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Results of a fishery-independent longline survey targeting coastal sharks in the eastern Bahamas between 1979 and 2013

Long-term trends in shark abundance offer important insights for fisheries management. Few fisheries-independent, extended time-series data exist for coastal shark species in the northwest Atlantic Ocean or Caribbean outside of the United States. A decades old dataset comprised of standardized longline surveys provided us with the opportunity to characterize diversity and evaluate changes in the relative abundance of sharks in the eastern Bahamas between 1979–1990 and 2011–2013. Caribbean reef sharks Carcharhinus perezi and tiger sharks Galeocerdo cuvier were the two most commonly captured species throughout the survey and were the only two species analyzed in detail. For both species, sex ratios favored females. Using Bayesian generalized linear models, we found that Caribbean reef shark catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) exhibited a positive relationship with year and temperature, while size exhibited no relationship with year and a negative relationship with temperature. There was no relationship between tiger shark CPUE and year but there was a positive relationship between size and year. These results are presented in the context of Bahamian shark conservation efforts and the results of other surveys in the region.

Fisheries-independent survey, Caribbean reef shark↗

Integrated experimental studies of pore structure and fluid uptake in the Bossier Shale in eastern Texas, USA

Within the Haynesville-Bossier Shale complex, the Bossier Shale has not been extensively studied by either industry and academia, despite it being an unconventional gas reservoir and a potential caprock for carbon storage in the underlaying Haynesville Shale. The lack of knowledge of the complex pore structures and fluid-rock interactions hinders the effective extraction of gas and the characterization of fluid reservoirs and sealing capacity. Integrated experimental studies of pore structure and fluid-rock interactions were conducted in seven Bossier Shale core samples collected in eastern Texas. Petrographic, geochemical, and petrophysical properties such as mineral composition, organic richness, thermal maturity, porosity, pore/pore throat diameter distribution, water-accessible pores, liquid water imbibition, and water vapor adsorption were characterized using complementary approaches of thin-section petrography, scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, total organic matter, pyrolysis, mercury intrusion porosimetry, nuclear magnetic resonance, (Ultra-) small angle X-rays scattering as well as small angle neutron scattering with deuterated liquids and contrast variation. Further, the results show that the thermally mature Bossier Shales are composed of mixed argillaceous mudstone, mixed mudstone, and mixed carbonate mudstone. The shale contains both organic and inorganic pores, with porosities of 3.24-9.37 %, pore-to-throat ratios of 1.65 to 19.4, and water-accessible pores accounting for 28.7-72.6 % of total pores. Approaches of liquid water imbibition and water vapor adsorption, with and without direct contact of water with shale samples, indicate that liquid water first enters the nano-sized pores under high capillary pressures, and water vapor adsorption is mainly controlled by both clay minerals and pores with diameters less than 10 nm. These findings contribute to a better understanding of pore structures and water-shale interactions and their controlling factors in the Bossier Shale.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Combined effects of temperature and precipitation on soil organic carbon changes in the uplands of eastern China

Temperature and precipitation simultaneously influence soil organic carbon (SOC) in agroecosystems. While their individual impacts have been extensively studied, their combined effects remain poorly understood at a regional scale. This study quantified the combined influence of temperature and precipitation on SOC in upland-crop fields of northern Jiangsu Province in eastern China. We used the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC, version 9.5) model with the currently most detailed upland soil database in China. This 1:50,000 soil database contains 17,024 upland soil polygons that were generated using 983 upland soil profiles. Model simulations indicated that under a combined scenario of rising air temperature (T) of 2 °C and a simultaneous decrease (or increase) in precipitation (P) by 20%, the 3.93 Mha of upland soils in the study region sequestered 39.10 (or 37.39) Tg C from 2010-2039. The C sequestration from the combined effects of T and P on SOC was 2.40 (or 2.12) Tg C less, relative to the sum of the amount produced from the individual effect. Moreover, if the increase in T changed from 2 °C to 4 °C, with P still decreasing (or increasing) by 20%, the C sequestration further decreased by 1.2 (or 1.68) Tg C. Our analysis of the combined effects of T and P on SOC changes suggests that future warming and P change in this region may have a negative influence on SOC sequestration, despite the upland agroecosystems serve as a long-term sink for atmospheric CO2. Furthermore, SOC changes in different upland soil groups and administrative areas varied widely due to the heterogeneity in soil properties and fertilizer applications. This emphasizes the importance of detailed soil datasets and the need to adopt on-farm management practices to different soil groups and administrative areas under future climate change.

Zhang, Liming↗

Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group and American College of Radiology Imaging Network Randomized Phase 2 Trial of Neoadjuvant Preoperative Paclitaxel/Cisplatin/Radiation Therapy (RT) or Irinotecan/Cisplatin/RT in Esophageal Adenocarcinoma: Long-Term Outcome and Implications for Trial Design

Purpose: Toxicity, pathologic complete response, and long-term outcomes are reported for the neoadjuvant therapies assessed in a randomized phase 2 Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group and American College of Radiology Imaging Network trial for operable esophageal adenocarcinoma, staged as II-IVa by endoscopy/ultrasonography (EUS). Methods and Materials: A total of 86 eligible patients began treatment. For arm A, preoperative chemotherapy was cisplatin, 30 mg/m{sup 2}, and irinotecan, 50 mg/m{sup 2}, on day 1, 8, 22, 29 during 45 Gy radiation therapy (RT), 1.8 Gy per day over 5 weeks. Adjuvant therapy was cisplatin, 30 mg/m{sup 2}, and irinotecan, 65 mg/m{sup 2} day 1, 8 every 21 days for 3 cycles. Arm B therapy was cisplatin, 30 mg/m{sup 2}, and paclitaxel, 50 mg/m{sup 2}, day 1, 8, 15, 22, 29 with RT, followed by adjuvant cisplatin, 75 mg/m{sup 2}, and paclitaxel, 175 mg/m{sup 2}, day 1 every 21 days for 3 cycles. Stratification included EUS stage and performance status. Results: In arm A, median overall survival was 35 months, and 5-, 6-, and 7-year survival rates were 46%, 39%, and 35%, respectively, whereas for arm B, they were 21 months and 27%, 27%, and 23%, respectively. Median progression- or recurrence-free survival (PFS) was 39.8 months with a 3-year PFS of 50% for arm A and 12.4 months (P=.046) with 3-year PFS of 28% for arm B. Eighty percent of the observed incidents of progression occurred within 19 months. Survival did not differ significantly by EUS and performance status strata. Conclusions: Long-term survival was similar for both arms and did not appear superior to results achieved with other standard regimens.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

The underappreciated importance of solar radiation in constraining spring phenology of temperate ecosystems in the Northern and Eastern United States

Spring phenology of temperate ecosystems is highly sensitive to climate change, generating various impacts on many important terrestrial surface biophysical processes. Although various prognostic models relying on environmental variables of temperature and photoperiod have been developed for spring phenology, comprehensive ecosystem-scale evaluations over large landscapes and long-time periods remain lacking. Further, environmental variables other than temperature and photoperiod might also importantly constrain spring phenology modelling but remain under-investigation. To address these issues, we leveraged around 20-years datasets of environmental variables (from Daymet and GLDAS products) and the spring phenology metric (i.e., the greenup date) respectively derived from MODIS and PhenoCams across 108 sites in the Northern and Eastern United States. We firstly cross-compared MODIS-derived greenup date with official PhenoCams product with high accuracy (R 2 = 0.70). Then, we evaluated the three prognostic models (i.e., Growing Degree Date (GDD), Sequential (SEQ) and optimality-based (OPT)) with MODIS-derived spring phenology, assessed the model residuals and their associations with soil moisture, rainfall, and solar radiation, and revised the two photoperiod-relevant models (SEQ, OPT) by replacing the daylength variable with solar radiation, which was found to contribute the most to model residuals. We found that 1) all models demonstrated good capability in characterizing spring phenology, with OPT performing the best (RMSE = 8.04 ± 5.05 days), followed by SEQ (RMSE = 10.57 ± 7.77 days) and GDD (RMSE = 10.84 ± 8.42 days), 2) all models displayed high model residuals showing tight correlation with solar radiation (r = 0.45–0.75), and 3) the revised models that included solar radiation significantly performed better with an RMSE reduction by 22.08%. Such results are likely because solar radiation better constrains early growing season plant photosynthesis than photoperiod, supporting the hypothesis of spring phenology as an adaptive strategy to maximize photosynthetic carbon gain (approximated by solar radiation) while minimizing frost damage risk (captured by temperature). Collectively, our study here reveals the underappreciated importance of solar radiation in constraining spring phenology of temperate ecosystems, and suggests ways to improve spring phenology modelling and other phenology-related ecological processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗