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At least 235 records · Page 13

Yield Estimation of the August 2020 Beirut Explosion by Using Physics‐Based Propagation Simulations of Regional Infrasound

Abstract The August 2020 Beirut explosion is the largest single‐fired ammonium nitrate explosion documented in history. The massive explosion excited loud infrasound in the atmosphere, and clear waveforms were recorded by a regional infrasound array at an epicentral distance of 100 km, allowing for accurate measurements of explosion energy. We estimate the explosion size based on the infrasound waveform inversion. Unlike conventional inversions using empirical models, we perform full 3‐D finite‐difference simulations to obtain a physics‐based propagation model for the inversion. Accurate numerical modeling of infrasound is challenging as the propagation is substantially affected by the turbulent atmosphere. Instead of a single deterministic prediction, we provide a range of waveform predictions by running multiple simulations with stochastic weather forecast models, which allows for comprehensive uncertainty analysis of numerical modeling and estimated yields. Finally, we expand the yield estimation technique for seismoacoustic analysis and demonstrate the substantial advantage of the joint approach.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Shallow Soil Response to a Buried Chemical Explosion With Geophones and Distributed Acoustic Sensing

Abstract Shallow sediments can respond non‐linearly to large dynamic strains and undergo a subsequent healing phase as the material gradually recovers following the passing of seismic waves. This study focuses on the physical changes in the subsurface caused by the shaking from a buried chemical explosion detonated in a borehole in Nevada, USA, as a part of the Source Physics Experiment Phase II. The explosion damaged the shallow subsurface and modified the frequency content recorded by 491 geophones and 2240 Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) channels within 2.5 km from surface ground zero. We observe a gradual shift of resonance frequencies in the 10–25 Hz frequency band in the hours following the explosion and develop a method to characterize the related logarithm‐type healing process of the shallow (i.e., upper ∼25 m) subsurface. We find that stronger levels of ground motion increase the relative degree of damage and duration of the subsurface healing; with the spall region exhibiting the largest degree of damage and longest healing recovery time. We observe coherent spatial patterns of damage with the region located to the southeast of the explosion exhibiting more damage than the southwest region. This study demonstrates that both DAS and co‐located geophones capture similar temporal changes associated with the physical processes occurring in the subsurface, with the high‐density sampling of DAS measurements enabling a new capability to monitor the fine‐scale changes of the Earth's shallow subsurface following the detonation of a buried explosion.

Viens, Loïc↗

Detection and imaging of chemicals and hidden explosives using terahertz time-domain spectroscopy and deep learning

Detecting concealed chemicals and explosives remains a critical challenge in global security. Terahertz time-domain spectroscopy (THz-TDS) offers a promising non-invasive and stand-off detection technique owing to its ability to penetrate optically opaque materials without causing ionization damage. While many chemicals exhibit distinct spectral features in the terahertz range, conventional terahertz-based detection methods often struggle in real-world environments, where variations in sample geometry, thickness, and packaging can lead to inconsistent spectral responses. In this study, we present a chemical imaging system that integrates THz-TDS with deep learning to enable accurate pixel-level identification and classification of different explosives. Operating in reflection mode and enhanced with plasmonic nanoantenna arrays, our THz-TDS system achieves a peak dynamic range of 96 dB and a detection bandwidth of 4.5 THz, supporting practical, stand-off operation. By analyzing individual time-domain pulses with deep neural networks, the system exhibits strong resilience to environmental variations and sample inconsistencies. Blind testing across eight chemicals—including pharmaceutical excipients and explosive compounds—resulted in an average classification accuracy of 99.42% at the pixel level. Notably, the system maintained an average accuracy of 88.83% when detecting explosives concealed under opaque paper coverings, demonstrating its robust generalization capability. These results highlight the potential of combining advanced terahertz spectroscopy with neural networks for highly sensitive and specific chemical and explosive detection in diverse and operationally relevant scenarios.

Imaging and sensing↗

Interacting supernovae and supernova impostors: Evidence of incoming supernova explosions?

Violent eruptions, and consequently major mass loss, are a common feature of the so–called Luminous Blue Variable (LBV) stars. During major eruptive episodes LBVs mimic the behavior of real type IIn supernovae (SNe), showing comparable radiated energy and similar spectroscopic properties. For this reason these events are frequently labelled as SN impostors. Type IIn SN spectra are characterized by the presence of prominent narrow Balmer lines in emission. In most cases, SNe IIn arise from massive stars (M>8{sub ⊙}) exploding in a dense H–rich circumstellar medium (CSM), produced by progenitor’s mass loss prior to the SN explosion. Although the mechanisms triggering these eruptions are still unknown, recently we had direct proofs of the connection between very massive stars, their eruptions and ejecta-CSM interacting SNe. SNe 2006jc, 2010mc, 2011ht and the controversial SN 2009ip are famous cases in which we observed the explosion of the star months to years after major outbursts. In this context, the case of a recent transient event, LSQ13zm, is extremely interesting since we observed an outburst just ∼3 weeks before the terminal SN explosion. All of this may suggest that SN impostors occasionally herald true SN explosions. Nonetheless, there are several cases where major eruptions are followed by a quiescent phase in the LBV life. The impostor SN 2007sv is one of these cases, since it showed a single outburst event. Its photometric (a relatively faint absolute magnitude at the maximum) and spectroscopic properties (low velocity and temperature of the ejecta, and the absence of the typical elements produced in the explosive nucleosynthesis) strongly suggest that SN 2007sv was the giant eruption of an LBV, which has then returned in a quiescent stage.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Explosive synchronization coexists with classical synchronization in the Kuramoto model

Explosive synchronization has recently been reported in a system of adaptively coupled Kuramoto oscillators, without any conditions on the frequency or degree of the nodes. Here, we find that, in fact, the explosive phase coexists with the standard phase of the Kuramoto oscillators. We determine this by extending the mean-field theory of adaptively coupled oscillators with full coupling to the case with partial coupling of a fraction f. This analysis shows that a metastable region exists for all finite values of f > 0, and therefore explosive synchronization is expected for any perturbation of adaptively coupling added to the standard Kuramoto model. We verify this theory with GPU-accelerated simulations on very large networks (N ∼ 10{sup 6}) and find that, in fact, an explosive transition with hysteresis is observed for all finite couplings. By demonstrating that explosive transitions coexist with standard transitions in the limit of f → 0, we show that this behavior is far more likely to occur naturally than was previously believed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The history and outlook for seismic monitoring of nuclear explosions in the context of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty

Modern methods of nuclear-explosion monitoring are vastly more capable than they were when underground nuclear testing began in the late 1950s, in part because a cycle of improvements in explosion monitoring in the 1960–80 period led to improvements in monitoring for earthquakes and other phenomena, which then led to a general growth in monitoring assets that in turn has been applied back to explosion monitoring. Practical experiences in nuclear-explosion monitoring, acquired during the era of active testing prior to finalization of the CTBT text in 1996, laid the basis for monitoring in support of this arms-control initiative. This article elaborates on the future of nuclear-test-monitoring technology, which can build upon an additional and remarkable growth of general monitoring assets that began in the 1990s, largely unrelated to the specifics of nuclear-test monitoring. A new cycle of improvements in earthquake monitoring is likely to improve monitoring for explosions. While it is not easy to quantify the degree of monitoring improvement afforded by such new assets, an example from North Korea indicates the improvement can be substantial.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

THE LANDSCAPE OF THE NEUTRINO MECHANISM OF CORE-COLLAPSE SUPERNOVAE: NEUTRON STAR AND BLACK HOLE MASS FUNCTIONS, EXPLOSION ENERGIES, AND NICKEL YIELDS

If the neutrino luminosity from the proto-neutron star formed during a massive star core collapse exceeds a critical threshold, a supernova (SN) results. Using spherical quasi-static evolutionary sequences for hundreds of progenitors over a range of metallicities, we study how the explosion threshold maps onto observables, including the fraction of successful explosions, the neutron star (NS) and black hole (BH) mass functions, the explosion energies (E {sub SN}) and nickel yields (M {sub Ni}), and their mutual correlations. Successful explosions are intertwined with failures in a complex pattern that is not simply related to initial progenitor mass or compactness. We predict that progenitors with initial masses of 15 ± 1, 19 ± 1, and ∼21-26 M {sub ☉} are most likely to form BHs, that the BH formation probability is non-zero at solar-metallicity and increases significantly at low metallicity, and that low luminosity, low Ni-yield SNe come from progenitors close to success/failure interfaces. We qualitatively reproduce the observed E {sub SN}-M {sub Ni} correlation, we predict a correlation between the mean and width of the NS mass and E {sub SN} distributions, and that the means of the NS and BH mass distributions are correlated. We show that the observed mean NS mass of ≅ 1.33 M {sub ☉} implies that the successful explosion fraction is higher than 0.35. Overall, we show that the neutrino mechanism can in principle explain the observed properties of SNe and their compact objects. We argue that the rugged landscape of progenitors and outcomes mandates that SN theory should focus on reproducing the wide ranging distributions of observed SN properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The r-process nucleosynthesis in the various jet-like explosions of magnetorotational core-collapse supernovae

The r-process nucleosynthesis in core-collapse supernovae (CC-SNe) is studied, with a focus on the explosion scenario induced by rotation and strong magnetic fields. Nucleosynthesis calculations are conducted based on magneto-hydrodynamical explosion models with a wide range of parameters for initial rotation and magnetic fields. The explosion models are classified in two different types: prompt-magnetic-jet and delayed-magnetic-jet, for which the magnetic fields of proto-neutron stars (PNSs) during collapse and the core-bounce are strong and comparatively moderate, respectively. Following the hydrodynamical trajectories of each explosion model, we confirmed that r-processes successfully occur in the prompt-magnetic-jets, which produce heavy nuclei including actinides. On the other hand, the r-process in the delayed-magnetic-jet is suppressed, which synthesizes only nuclei up to the second peak (A∼130). Thus, the r-process in the delayed-magnetic-jets could explain only “weak r-process” patterns observed in metal-poor stars rather than the “main r-process,” represented by the solar abundances. Our results imply that CC-SNe are possible astronomical sources of heavy r-process elements if their magnetic fields are strong enough, while weaker magnetic explosions may produce “weak r-process” patterns (A≲130). We show the potential importance and necessity of magneto-rotational SNe for explaining the galactic chemical evolution, as well as abundances of r-process enhanced metal-poor stars. We also examine the effects of the remaining uncertainties in the nature of PNSs due to weak interactions that determine the final neutron-richness of ejecta. Additionally, we briefly discuss radioactive isotope yields in primary jets (e.g., {sup 56}Ni), with relation to several optical observation of SNe and relevant high-energy astronomical phenomena.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Energetic lanthanide complexes: coordination chemistry and explosives applications

Here, we report that metals are generally added to organic molecular explosives in a heterogeneous composite to improve overall heat and energy release. In order to avoid creating a mixture that can vary in homogeneity, energetic organic molecules can be directly bonded to high molecular weight metals, forming a single metal complex with Angstrom-scale separation between the metal and the explosive. To probe the relationship between the structural properties of metal complexes and explosive performance, a new series of energetic lanthanide complexes has been prepared using energetic ligands such as NTO (5-nitro-2,4-dihydro-1,2,4-triazole-3-one). These are the first examples of lanthanide NTO complexes where no water is coordinated to the metal, demonstrating novel control of the coordination environment. The complexes have been characterized by X-ray crystallography, NMR and IR spectroscopies, photoluminescence, and sensitivity testing. The structural and energetic properties are discussed in the context of enhanced blast effects and detection. Cheetah calculations have been performed to fine-tune physical properties, creating a systematic method for producing explosives with 'tailor made' characteristics. In conclusion, these new complexes will be benchmarks for further study in the field of metalized high explosives.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A method to fuse multiphysics waveforms and improve predictive explosion detection: theory, experiment and performance

Natural and human-made sources of transient energy often emit multiple geophysical signatures that include mechanical and electromagnetic waveforms. We present a constructive method to fuse and evaluate statistics that we derive from such multiphysics waveforms that improves our capability to detect small, near-ground explosions over similar methods that consume single signature waveforms. Our method advances Fisher's Combined Probability Test (Fisher's Method) to operate under both hypotheses of a binary test on noisy data and provide researchers with the density functions required to forecast the ability of Fisher's Method to screen fused explosion signatures from noise. We apply this method against 12 d, multisignature explosion and noise records to show (1) that a fused multiphysics waveform statistic that combines radio, acoustic and seismic waveform data can identify explosions roughly 0.8 magnitude units lower than an acoustic emission, STA/LTA detector for the same detection probability and (2) that we can quantitatively predict how this fused, multiphysics statistic performs with Fisher's Method. Our work thereby offers a baseline method for predictive waveform fusion that supports multiphenomenological explosion monitoring (multiPEM) and is applicable to any binary testing problem in observational geophysics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Bayesian characterization of explosive sources using infrasonic signals

In this paper, a Bayesian approach is applied to the estimation of source characteristics for above ground explosive events using infrasonic observations at propagation distances of hundreds of kilometers. Propagation-based, stochastic path geometry models have previously been investigated for infrasonic source localization with promising results; here, statistical transmission loss models are investigated using archived atmospheric specifications and propagation simulation tools to demonstrate that such an approach is applicable to source characterization. The resulting transmission loss models models are utilized in estimating near-source spectral characteristics for explosive events from infrasonic observations at regional distances of several hundred kilometers or more using a Bayesian framework to compute a combined estimate. The near-source spectral characterization can be used along with a simplistic explosive source model to compute an estimate of explosive yield with quantifiable uncertainty. Finally, the yield estimation framework is evaluated using above-ground explosive events from the western US during the fall of 2012 with promising results.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Comparison of Surface Phenomena Created by Underground Chemical Explosions in Dry Alluvium and Granite Geology From Fully Polarimetric VideoSAR Data

Phase I of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) series involved six underground chemical explosions, all of which were conducted at the same experimental pad. Research from the sixth explosion of the series (SPE-6) demonstrated that polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (PolSAR) is a viable technology for monitoring an underground chemical explosion when the geologic structure is Cretaceous granitic intrusive. It was shown that a durable signal is measurable by the H/A/α polarimetric decomposition parameters. After the SPE-6 experiment, the SPE program moved to the Phase II location, which is composed of dry alluvium geology (DAG). The loss of wavefront energy is greater through dry alluvium than through granite. In this article, we compare the SPE-6 analysis to the second DAG (DAG-2) experiment. We hypothesize that despite the geology at the DAG site being more challenging than at the Phase I location, combined with the DAG-2 experiment having a 3.37 times deeper scaled depth of burial than the SPE-6, a durable nonprompt signal is still measurable by a PolSAR sensor. We compare the PolSAR time-series measures from videoSAR frames, from the SPE-6 and DAG-2 experiments, with accelerometer data. We show which PolSAR measures are invariant to the two types of geology and which are geology dependent. We compare a coherent change detection (CCD) map from the DAG-2 experiment with the data from a fiber-optic distributed acoustic sensor to show the connection between the spatial extent of coherence loss in CCD maps and spallation caused by the explosion. Finally, we also analyze the spatial extent of the PolSAR measures from both explosions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Lithologic controls on microfracturing from legacy underground nuclear explosions

Detection and verification of underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) can be improved with a better understanding of the nature and extent of explosion-induced damage in rock and the effect of this damage on radionuclide migration. Much of the previous work in this area has focused on centimeter- to meter-scale manifestations of damage, but to predict the effect of damage on permeability for radionuclide migration, observations at smaller scales are needed to determine deformation mechanisms. Based on studies of tectonic deformation in tuff, we expected that the heterogeneous tuff layers would manifest explosion-induced damage differently, with welded tuffs showing more fractures and nonwelded tuffs showing more deformation bands. In comparing post-UNE samples with lithologically matched pre-UNE equivalents, we observed damage in multiple lithologies of tuff through quantitative microfracture densities. We find that the texture (e.g., from deposition, welding, alteration, etc.) affects fracture densities, with stronger units fracturing more than weaker units. While we see no evidence of expected deformation bands in the nonwelded tuffs, we do observe, as expected, much larger microfracture densities at close range (<50 m) to the explosive source. We also observe a subtle increase in microfracture densities in post-UNE samples, relative to pre-UNE equivalents, in all lithologies and depths. The fractures that are interpreted to be UNE-induced are primarily transgranular and grain-boundary microfractures, with intragranular microfracture densities being largely similar to those of pre-UNE samples. This work has implications for models of explosion-induced damage and how that damage may affect flow pathways in the subsurface.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Full‐Waveform Simulation of Infrasound Propagation in the Atmosphere: A Case Study of the 2023 April 20 SpaceX Starship Explosion

Infrasound, low‐frequency sound below 20 Hz, has been a key technology to monitor explosion events in the atmosphere. The International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear‐Test‐Ban Treaty Organization provides the means for continuous monitoring of infrasonic events worldwide. Infrasonic techniques for event location and size estimation can also complement other observational techniques for the detection and characterization of the entry of asteroids or large meteoroids. In this study, we describe the detection capability of IMS infrasound stations for an explosive event in the middle of the atmosphere. Full‐waveform simulations are performed with the specification of atmospheric conditions and incorporated into the event location and explosion yield estimation. We applied it to the 2023 April 20 SpaceX Starship explosion at 29 km altitude. Starship is a super heavy‐lift space vehicle constructed by SpaceX and known as the largest and most powerful rocket ever built. The Starship explosion created huge pressure disturbances in the atmosphere, and its infrasound was detected by the IMS arrays in North America between 2000 and 4000 km. Independent observational data and available ground‐truth information provide a rare opportunity to evaluate the monitoring capability of the IMS network for elevated sources in the atmosphere. We also demonstrate the capability of full‐waveform simulation for infrasound wavefield characterization and prediction to improve event location and yield estimation.

Geosciences↗

Analysis of Ground Motion from An Underground Chemical Explosion

Here in this paper we investigate the excitation and propagation of far-field seismic waves from the 905 kg trinitrotoluene equivalent underground chemical explosion SPE-3 recorded during the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) at the Nevada National Security Site. The recorded far-field ground motion at short and long distances is characterized by substantial shear-wave energy, and large azimuthal variations in P-and S-wave amplitudes. The shear waves observed on the transverse component of sensors at epicentral distances <50 m suggests they were generated at or very near the source. The relative amplitude of the shear waves grows as the waves propagate away from the source. We analyze and model the shear-wave excitation during the explosion in the 0.01–10 Hz frequency range, at epicentral distances of up to 1 km. We used two simulation techniques. One is based on the empirical isotropic Mueller–Murphy (MM) (Mueller and Murphy, 1971) nuclear explosion source model, and 3D anelastic wave propagation modeling. The second uses a physics-based approach that couples hydrodynamic modeling of the chemical explosion source with anelastic wave propagation modeling. Comparisons with recorded data show the MM source model overestimates the SPE-3 far-field ground motion by an average factor of 4. The observations show that shear waves with substantial high-frequency energy were generated at the source. However, to match the observations additional shear waves from scattering, including surface topography, and heterogeneous shallow structure contributed to the amplification of far-field shear motion. Comparisons between empirically based isotropic and physics-based anisotropic source models suggest that both wave-scattering effects and near-field nonlinear effects are needed to explain the amplitude and irregular radiation pattern of shear motion observed during the SPE-3 explosion.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Generation of Shear Motion from an Isotropic Explosion Source by Scattering in Heterogeneous Media

One challenging task in explosion seismology is the development of physical models for explaining the generation of S waves during underground explosions. Recent analysis of ground motion from chemical explosions during the Source Physics Experiment (Pitarka et al., 2015) suggests that, although a large component of shear motion was generated directly at the source, additional scattering from heterogeneous velocity structure and topography is necessary to better match the recorded data. In our paper, we used a stochastic representation of small-scale velocity variability to produce high-frequency scattering and to analyze its implication on shear-motion generation during underground explosions. In our stochastic velocity model, the key parameters that affect scattering are the correlation length and the relative amplitude of velocity perturbations. Finally, based on finite-difference simulations of elastic wave propagation from an isotropic explosion source, we find that higher velocity perturbations result in larger shear motion, whereas the correlation length, which controls the scatterers size, affects the frequency range at which relative transverse motion is larger.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Numerical Modeling of Air-Blast Suppression as a Function of Explosive-Charge Burial Depth

As a chemical explosion is buried, the mechanism for acoustic wave generation transitions from fully gas-generated at the surface to completely spall-induced at full containment depth. The fully gas-generated and completely spall-induced signals in the acoustic waveform are well described; however, the transition between these two end-members eludes numerical modeling because of the complex phenomena that are involved. The phenomena of crater formation and explosive cloud evolution are simulated using an Eulerian hydrocode that incorporates geomaterials with strength and porosity. Having accurately modeled these phenomena, we can confidently predict the propagation and relative strength of the gas-generated and spall-induced pulses in the recorded acoustic waveform. The numerical predictions agree with observations from the historical Stagecoach experiment as well as modern recordings from the Source Physics Experiment. In particular, the peak pressure p generated by an explosion is initially due to the gas-generated mechanism and decays with scaled depth of burial d s (depth d scaled by the cube-root of explosive yield w 1/3 ) as exp(-d s ) but then transitions near a scaled depth of 6 m/ton 1/3 to the spall-generated mechanism in which the decay is d$_{s}^{-7/4}$. This decay form is related to the strong ground-motion attenuation relationship that affects spall strength. So these results can improve seismoacoustic inverse models for the explosive source that need to account for the gas-generated and spall-induced signals and their effect on peak pressures and other acoustic signal features.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismoacoustic Analysis of the Large Surface Explosion Coupling Experiment Using a Large- N Seismic Array

Seismoacoustic signals at local distance (<~10 km) are widely used as important constraints on source parameters for near-surface events, yet the seismoacoustic wave generation and energy partitioning are not fully understood. Spatially dense sensors could provide observations in high resolution to capture the full wavefield for better understanding wave propagation and improving source estimation. Recently, spatially dense observations of the local seismoacoustic wavefield produced by a pair of 1-ton surface explosions have been recorded using a large-N seismic array. This large-N array consists of 446 geophones and covers an area of approximately 2×2.5 km 2 . The two surface explosions occur at the same location but at different times with different atmospheric conditions. Both seismic and air–ground coupled acoustic waves from the two surface explosions are well observed. Analyses of signals recorded by the large-N seismic array show different acoustic wave speed and amplitude for the two explosions. A strong spatial variability in acoustic wave speed and amplitude for each explosion is also observed. Finally, the observations suggest the important role of local atmosphere state on wave propagation and source estimation and demonstrate how the use of a large-N capability can improve characterization of the propagation medium and source.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗