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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Next generation Arctic vegetation maps: Aboveground plant biomass and woody dominance mapped at 30 m resolution across the tundra biome

The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, placing tundra ecosystems at the forefront of global climate change. Plant biomass is a fundamental ecosystem attribute that is sensitive to changes in climate, closely tied to ecological function, and crucial for constraining ecosystem carbon dynamics. However, the amount, functional composition, and distribution of plant biomass are only coarsely quantified across the Arctic. Therefore, we developed the first moderate resolution (30 m) maps of live aboveground plant biomass (g m −2 ) and woody plant dominance (%) for the Arctic tundra biome, including the mountainous Oro Arctic. We modeled biomass for the year 2020 using a new synthesis dataset of field biomass harvest measurements, Landsat satellite seasonal synthetic composites, ancillary geospatial data, and machine learning models. Additionally, we quantified pixel-wise uncertainty in biomass predictions using Monte Carlo simulations and validated the models using a robust, spatially blocked and nested cross-validation procedure. Observed plant and woody plant biomass values ranged from 0 to ∼6000 g m −2 (mean ≈ 350 g m −2 ), while predicted values ranged from 0 to ∼4000 g m −2 (mean ≈ 275 g m −2 ), resulting in model validation root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) ≈ 400 g m −2 and R 2 ≈ 0.6. Our maps not only capture large-scale patterns of plant biomass and woody plant dominance across the Arctic that are linked to climatic variation (e.g., thawing degree days), but also illustrate how fine-scale patterns are shaped by local surface hydrology, topography, and past disturbance. By providing data on plant biomass across Arctic tundra ecosystems at the highest resolution to date, our maps can significantly advance research and inform decision-making on topics ranging from Arctic vegetation monitoring and wildlife conservation to carbon accounting and land surface modeling.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward a more realistic representation of surface albedo in NASA CERES-derived surface radiative fluxes

Accurate multidecadal radiative flux records are vital to understand Arctic amplification and constrain climate model uncertainties. Uncertainty in the NASA Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES)-derived irradiances is larger over sea ice than any other surface type and comes from several sources. The year-long Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in the central Arctic provides a rare opportunity to explore uncertainty in CERES-derived radiative fluxes. First, a systematic and statistically robust assessment of surface shortwave and longwave fluxes was conducted using in situ measurements from MOSAiC flux stations. The CERES Synoptic 1degree (SYN1deg) product overestimates the downwelling shortwave flux by +11.40 Wm –2 and underestimates the upwelling shortwave flux by –15.70 Wm –2 and downwelling longwave fluxes by –12.58 Wm –2 at the surface during summer. In addition, large differences are found in the upwelling longwave flux when the surface approaches the melting point (approximately 0°C). The biases in downwelling shortwave and longwave fluxes suggest that the atmosphere represented in CERES is too optically thin. The large negative bias in upwelling shortwave flux can be attributed in large part to lower surface albedo (–0.15) in satellite footprint relative to surface sensors. Additionally, the results show that the spectral surface albedo used in SYN1deg overestimates albedo in visible and mid-infrared bands. A series of radiative transfer model perturbation experiments are performed to quantify the factors contributing to the differences. The CERES-MOSAiC broadband albedo differences (approximately 20 Wm –2 ) explain a larger portion of the upwelling shortwave flux difference than the spectral albedo shape differences (approximately 3 Wm –2 ). In addition, the differences between perturbation experiments using hourly and monthly MOSAiC surface albedo suggest that approximately 25% of the sea ice surface albedo variability is explained by factors not correlated with daily sea ice concentration variability. Biases in net shortwave and longwave flux can be reduced to less than half by adjusting both albedo and cloud inputs toward observed values. The results indicate that improvements in the surface albedo and cloud data would substantially reduce the uncertainty in the Arctic surface radiation budget derived from CERES data products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Topological Characterization and Uncertainty Visualization of Atmospheric Rivers

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow regions of water vapor in the Earth's atmosphere that transport heat and moisture from the tropics to the mid-latitudes. ARs are often associated with extreme weather events in North America and contribute significantly to water supply and flood risk. However, characterizing ARs has been a major challenge due to the lack of a universal definition and their structural variations. Existing AR detection tools (ARDTs) produce distinct AR boundaries for the same event, making the risk assessment of ARs a difficult task. Understanding these uncertainties is crucial to improving the predictability of AR impacts, including their landfall areas and associated precipitation, which could cause catastrophic flooding and landslides over the coastal regions. In this work, we develop an uncertainty visualization framework that captures boundary and interior uncertainties, i.e., structural variations, of an ensemble of ARs that arise from a set of ARDTs. We first provide a statistical overview of the AR boundaries using the contour boxplots of Whitaker et al. that highlight the structural variations of AR boundaries based on their nesting relationships. We then introduce the topological skeletons of ARs based on Morse complexes that characterize the interior variation of an ensemble of ARs. We propose an uncertainty visualization of these topological skeletons, inspired by MetroSets of Jacobson et al. that emphasizes the agreements and disagreements across the ensemble members. Through case studies and expert feedback, we demonstrate that the two approaches complement each other, and together they could facilitate an effective comparative analysis process and provide a more confident outlook on an AR's shape, area, and onshore impact.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of a TSR-based method for understanding structural relationships of cofactors and local environments in photosystem I

All chemical forms of energy and oxygen on Earth are generated via photosynthesis where light energy is converted into redox energy by two photosystems (PS I and PS II). There is an increasing number of PS I 3D structures deposited in the Protein Data Bank (PDB). The Triangular Spatial Relationship (TSR)-based algorithm converts 3D structures into integers (TSR keys). A comprehensive study was conducted, by taking advantage of the PS I 3D structures and the TSR-based algorithm, to answer three questions: (i) Are electron cofactors including P700, A -1 and A 0 , which are chemically identical chlorophylls, structurally different? (ii) There are two electron transfer chains (A and B branches) in PS I. Are the cofactors on both branches structurally different? (iii) Are the amino acids in cofactor binding sites structurally different from those not in cofactor binding sites? The key contributions and important findings include: (i) a novel TSR-based method for representing 3D structures of pigments as well as for quantifying pigment structures was developed; (ii) the results revealed that the redox cofactor, P700, are structurally conserved and different from other redox factors. Similar situations were also observed for both A -1 and A 0 ; (iii) the results demonstrated structural differences between A and B branches for the redox cofactors P700, A -1 , A 0 and A 1 as well as their cofactor binding sites; (iv) the tryptophan residues close to A 0 and A 1 are structurally conserved; (v) The TSR-based method outperforms the Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD) and the Ultrafast Shape Recognition (USR) methods. The structural analyses of redox cofactors and their binding sites provide a foundation for understanding the unique chemical and physical properties of each redox cofactor in PS I, which are essential for modulating the rate and direction of energy and electron transfers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Anisotropic Heating and Parallel Heat Flux in Electron-only Magnetic Reconnection with Intense Guide Fields

Electron-only reconnection (E-REC) is a process recently observed in the Earth’s magnetosheath, where magnetic reconnection occurs at electron kinetic scales, and ions do not couple to the reconnection process. Electron-only reconnection is likely to have a significant impact on the energy conversion and dissipation of turbulence cascades at kinetic scales in some settings. This paper investigates E-REC under different intensities of strong guide fields (the ratio between the guide field and the in-plane asymptotic field strength is 5, 10 and 20, respectively) via two-dimensional fully kinetic particle-in-cell simulations, focusing on electron heating. The simulations are initialized with a force-free current sheet equilibrium under various intensities of strong guide fields. Similarly to previous experimental studies, electron temperature anisotropy along separatrices is observed, which is found to be mainly caused by the variations of parallel temperature. Both regions of anisotropy and parallel temperature increase/decrease along separatrices become thinner with increasing guide fields. Besides, we find a transition from a quadrupolar to a hexapolar (six-polar) to an octopolar (eight-polar) structure in temperature anisotropy and parallel temperature as the guide field intensifies. Non-Maxwellian electron velocity distribution functions (EVDFs) at different locations in the three simulations are observed. Our results show that parallel electron velocity varies notably with different guide field intensities and finite parallel electron heat flux density is observed. The three simulations exhibit features of the Chew–Goldberger–Low theory, with the level of consistency increasing as the guide field strength increases. This explains the electron parallel temperature variations and the shape of the EVDFs observed along the separatrices. This work may provide insights into the understanding of electron heating and parallel heat flux density in E-REC observed in the turbulent magnetosheath.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

IceCube-Gen2: the window to the extreme Universe

The observation of electromagnetic radiation from radio to γ-ray wavelengths has provided a wealth of information about the Universe. However, at PeV (10 15 eV) energies and above, most of the Universe is impenetrable to photons. New messengers, namely cosmic neutrinos, are needed to explore the most extreme environments of the Universe where black holes, neutron stars, and stellar explosions transform gravitational energy into non-thermal cosmic rays. These energetic particles havemillions of times higher energies than those produced in the most powerful particle accelerators on Earth. As neutrinos can escape from regions otherwise opaque to radiation, they allow an unique view deep into exploding stars and the vicinity of the event horizons of black holes. The discovery of cosmic neutrinos with IceCube has opened this new window on the Universe. IceCube has been successful in finding first evidence for cosmic particle acceleration in the jet of an active galactic nucleus. Yet, ultimately, its sensitivity is too limited to detect even the brightest neutrino sources with high significance, or to detect populations of less luminous sources. In thiswhite paper, we present an overview of a next-generation instrument, IceCube-Gen2, which will sharpen our understanding of the processes and environments that govern the Universe at the highest energies. IceCube-Gen2 is designed to: (a) Resolve the high-energy neutrino sky from TeV to EeV energies (b) Investigate cosmic particle acceleration through multi-messenger observations (c) Reveal the sources and propagation of the highest energy particles in the Universe (d) Probe fundamental physics with high-energy neutrinos IceCube-Gen2 will enhance the existing IceCube detector at the South Pole. It will increase the annual rate of observed cosmic neutrinos by a factor of ten compared to IceCube, and will be able to detect sources five times fainter than its predecessor. Furthermore, through the addition of a radio array, IceCube- Gen2 will extend the energy range by several orders of magnitude compared to IceCube. Construction will take 8 years and cost about $350M. The goal is to have IceCube-Gen2 fully operational by 2033. IceCube-Gen2 will play an essential role in shaping the new era of multimessenger astronomy, fundamentally advancing our knowledge of the highenergy Universe. Overall, this challenging mission can be fully addressed only through the combination of the information from the neutrino, electromagnetic, and gravitational wave emission of high-energy sources, in concert with the new survey instruments across the electromagnetic spectrum and gravitational wave detectors which will be available in the coming years.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Computational Workflow of Elucidating Viral Impact on Mediating Microbial Response to In-situ Experimental Warming: Bridging microbial modeling to carbon and mineral modeling

Viruses are abundant in soils and shape microbial communities in ways that can potentially influence ecosystem processes, yet their contributions to carbon cycling and mineral transformations remain poorly understood. Here we present a multi-phase framework that links virus-host interactions to soil biogeochemistry by combining ecological simulations, genome- and community-scale metabolic modeling, and statistical and machine-learning analyses. We first calibrated microbial abundance profiles under explicit infection scenarios to capture how viral pressure alters community structure, then explored alternative interaction strategies, including kill-the-winner, piggyback-the-winner, and mixed lytic-lysogenic modes, through forward simulations. These ecological shifts were translated into metabolic consequences using exchange fluxes summarized into biologically meaningful categories, while integrated statistical and machine-learning screens elevated subtle but consistent signals. Application of this framework revealed that viral infections shift the balance between organic and inorganic fluxes, redirecting metabolism from diffuse organic transformations toward inorganic pools such as protons and CO 2 , directly linking viral regulation to respiration and soil carbon balance. The roll-up analysis also isolated perturbations in critical mineral ions, including magnesium, manganese, zinc, and copper, which serve as essential enzymatic cofactors. In piggyback-the-winner scenarios, uptake of these ions was strongly suppressed. Contrasting viral strategies produced distinct community structures and metabolic outcomes, from broad suppression under kill-the-winner dynamics to dramatic redistributions under high-lytic and high-gain lysogenic regimes that collapsed vulnerable microbial populations while promoting opportunists. Together, these results provide a tractable path to trace viral perturbations from host abundance shifts to metabolic flux adjustments and ecosystem-scale processes, offering a practical way to include viruses in earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Metabolic Redox Coupling Controls Methane Production in Permafrost‐Affected Peatlands Through Organic Matter Quality‐Dependent Energy Allocation

ABSTRACT Permafrost thaw represents one of Earth's largest climate feedback risks, potentially releasing vast carbon (C) stores as greenhouse gases (GHG). However, our ability to predict emissions remains limited by poor understanding of how changing organic matter (OM) composition affects microbial carbon processing. We test a metabolism‐centered redox framework, which views microbial processes as coupled oxidative‐reductive reactions, to mechanistically explain how organic matter metabolite quality controls greenhouse gas production in permafrost‐affected peatland ecosystems. Rather than relying solely on geochemical redox measurements, our approach examines how microbes balance electron flow through metabolic pathways. Using active layer peat (9–19 cm) from contrasting environments (bog and fen), we employed multi‐omics approaches, including metabolomics, metagenomics, and metatranscriptomics, to link OM chemistry to microbial function. Our results reveal distinct dissolved organic matter metabolite composition, with fen systems enriched in compounds with higher substrate quality (low molecular weight (MW) sugars with high H:C ratios and low aromaticity) and bog systems dominated by compounds with lower substrate quality (high MW phenols with lower H:C ratios and higher aromaticity). In fen samples, these sugar‐like compounds correlated with higher oxidative metabolism and methanogenesis, supported by increased glycolysis gene expression. Initially, electrons from increased oxidative metabolism were balanced through nitrate and sulfate reduction, but as these electron acceptors were depleted, methanogenesis increased to maintain redox balance. Fen samples showed rapid degradation of both high‐ and low‐substrate‐quality compounds, suggesting sufficient energy for efficient C cycling. Conversely, bog samples exhibited more polyphenolic compounds, lower glycolysis activity, and higher stress‐related gene expression, suggesting energy was diverted towards cell maintenance under acidic conditions rather than C processing. This approach suggests that predicting greenhouse gas emissions requires an understanding of how organic matter quality shapes microbial energy allocation strategies, providing a mechanistic framework for improving emission predictions from permafrost‐affected peatlands and similar ecosystems.

Biodiversity & Conservation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fire–precipitation interactions amplify the quasi-biennial variability in fires over southern Mexico and Central America

Fires have great ecological, social, and economic impact. However, fire prediction and management remain challenges due to a limited understanding of their roles in the Earth system. Fires over southern Mexico and Central America (SMCA) are a good example of this, greatly impacting local air quality and regional climate. Here we report that the spring peak (April–May) of fire activities in this region has a distinct quasi-biennial signal based on multiple satellite datasets measuring different fire characteristics. The variability is initially driven by quasi-biennial variations in precipitation. Composite analysis indicates that strong fire years correspond to suppressed ascending motion and weakened precipitation over the SMCA. The anomalous precipitation over the SMCA is further found to be mostly related to the East Pacific–North Pacific (EP-NP) pattern 2 months prior to the fire season. The positive phase of the EP-NP leads to enhanced precipitation over the eastern US but suppressed precipitation over the SMCA, similar to the spatial pattern of precipitation differences between strong and weak fire years. Meanwhile, the quasi-biennial signals in precipitation and fires appear to be amplified by their interactions through a positive feedback loop at short timescales. Model simulations show that in strong fire years, more aerosol particles are released and transported downstream over the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern US, where suspended light-absorbing aerosols warm the atmosphere and cause the ascending motion of the air aloft. Subsequently, a compensating downward motion is formed over the region of the fire source and ultimately suppresses precipitation and intensifies fires. Statistical analysis shows the different durations of the two-way interaction, where the fire suppression effect of precipitation lasts for more than 20 d, while fire leads to a decrease in precipitation at shorter timescales (3–5 d). This study demonstrates the importance of fire–climate interactions in shaping the fire activities on an interannual scale and highlights how precipitation–fire interactions at short timescales contribute to the interannual variability in both fire and precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

How Flood Hazards in a Warming Climate Could Be Amplified by Changes in Spatiotemporal Patterns and Mechanisms of Water Available for Runoff

Prior research on climate change impacts on flooding has primarily focused on changes in extreme rainfall magnitudes, often neglecting snow processes and spatiotemporal storm patterns, such as hyetograph shapes and areal reduction factors (ARFs). This study examines projected changes in extreme water available for runoff (W) events in two snow-dominated basins in the western United States: the Yakima River Basin (YRB) in Washington State and the Walker River Basin (WRB) spanning the California-Nevada border. We analyze changes in W magnitudes, mechanisms, hyetograph shapes, and ARFs, and study their compounded impacts on flood hazard. Our findings suggest increased extreme W magnitudes across a large portion of the basins, with steeper or flatter hyetographs, and higher ARF values under the future climate. These changes are driven by a shift from seasonal snowmelt to more rain-on-snow events at higher elevations and by increased rainfall at lower elevations. We then use a single event-based rainfall-runoff model to estimate flood hazard changes based on extreme W magnitudes, hyetograph shapes, ARFs, and their compounded impacts. Our analysis reveals that focusing solely on the magnitude of changes in extreme W can significantly underestimate future flood hazards and uncertainties. Ignoring future changes in spatiotemporal patterns can underestimate future flood hazards by 63% and underestimate the uncertainty in future flood events by 18% in the WRB. These results underscore the necessity of incorporating spatiotemporal dynamics into future flood hazard assessments to provide a more accurate evaluation of potential impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

CROCUS Dual Polarization Ceilometer Data at Northeastern Illinois University Rooftop

This dataset is from the Department of Energy Office of Science funded project, CROCUS Urban Integrated Field Laboratory (https://crocus-urban.org/). The dual-polarization ceilometer (Vaisala CL61) is an autonomous lidar system operating at 910 nm wavelength, providing valuable measurements for understanding atmospheric boundary layer evolution, air quality, and cloud-aerosol interactions. The CL61 measures the backscattered signal intensity alternating between parallel- and cross-polarization signals. The unique depolarization measurement capability improves discrimination between different particle types, such as liquid droplets, ice crystals, and aerosols. The depolarization is highly dependent on the scatterer shape and orientation (spherical vs non-spherical particles), with the linear depolarization ratio providing a measure of dominant backscatter signal component from atmospheric particles at various heights, essentially allowing discrimination between liquid and solid particles. With its efficient optical system, CL61’s improved signal-to-noise ratio compared to traditional ceilometers allows studying detailed vertical profiles of aerosols and clouds up to 15 km height.Datasets are stored in a netCDF data format, and we we encourage users to make use of the associated toolkits available from Unidata (https://www.unidata.ucar.edu/software/netcdf/), Project Pythia (https://foundations.projectpythia.org/core/data-formats/netcdf-cf.html), and our “Instrument Cookbooks” (https://crocus-urban.github.io/instrument-cookbooks) for more information on how to process the metadata-rich datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Linear Response Function Reveals the Most Effective Remote Forcing in Causing September Arctic Sea Ice Melting in CESM

We apply the linear response function method to investigate the most excitable mode of the September Arctic sea ice and its corresponding remote oceanic forcing in climate models. The method is useful in identifying the fundamental, dynamical and causal relationship between the remote forcing and sea ice response. We find that the most excitable mode of the September Arctic sea ice preferentially takes place over the Pacic side of the Arctic and its remote forcing corresponds to a dipole pattern of precipitation anomaly in the tropics with an increase of precipitation over the western and central tropical and subtropical Pacic ocean while a decrease over the Maritime Continent. The tropical precipitation anomaly likely drives a Rossby wave train propagating toward higher latitudes and leads to a ridge anomaly over the Pacic side of the Arctic, resulting in poleward atmospheric heat transport, enhanced downward longwave radiation and thus melting of the sea ice. In addition, a good agreement is found with the leading tropical Arctic teleconnection mode detected in a pre-industrial control simulation, which supports the usefulness and robustness of the linear response function method and the importance of tropical forcing in shaping the sea ice variability.

Wu, Yutian↗
DOE OSTI2020

XANES spectroscopy of sulfides stable under reducing conditions

X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy is a powerful technique to quantitatively investigate sulfur speciation in geologically complex materials such as minerals, glasses, soils, organic compounds, industrial slags, and extraterrestrial materials. This technique allows non-destructive investigation of the coordination chemistry and oxidation state of sulfur species ranging from sulfide (2–oxidation state) to sulfate (6+ oxidation state). Each sulfur species has a unique spectral shape with a characteristic K-edge representing the s → p and d hybridization photoelectron transitions. As such, sulfur speciation is used to measure the oxidation state of samples by comparing the overall XANES spectra to that of reference compounds. Although many S XANES spectral standards exist for terrestrial applications under oxidized conditions, new sulfide standards are needed to investigate reduced (oxygen fugacity, f O 2 , below IW) silicate systems relevant for studies of extraterrestrial materials and systems. Sulfides found in certain meteorites (e.g., enstatite chondrites and aubrites) and predicted to exist on Mercury, such as CaS (oldhamite), MgS (niningerite), and FeCr 2 S 4 (daubréelite), are stable at f O 2 below IW-3 but rapidly oxidize to sulfate and/or produce sulfurous gases under terrestrial surface conditions. XANES spectra of these compounds collected to date have been of variable quality, possibly due to the unstable nature of certain sulfides under typical (e.g., oxidizing) laboratory conditions. A new set of compounds was prepared for this study and their XANES spectra are analyzed for comparison with potential extraterrestrial analogs. S K -edge XANES spectra were collected at Argonne National Lab for FeS (troilite), MnS (alabandite), CaS (oldhamite), MgS (niningerite), Ni 1–x S, NiS 2 , CaSO 4 (anhydrite), MgSO 4 , FeSO 4 , Fe 2 (SO 4 ) 3 , FeCr 2 S 4 (daubréelite), Na 2 S, Al 2 S 3 , Ni 7 S 6 , and Ni 3 S 2 ; the latter five were analyzed for the first time using XANES. These standards expand upon the existing S XANES end-member libraries at a higher spectral resolution (0.25 eV steps) near the S K -edge. Processed spectra, those that have been normalized and “flattened,” are compared to quantify uncertainties due to data processing methods. Future investigations that require well-characterized sulfide standards, such as the ones presented here, may have important implications for understanding sulfur speciation in reduced silicate glasses and minerals with applications for the early Earth, Moon, Mercury, and enstatite chondrites.

Anzures, Brendan A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing the impact of finite matrix block size on conservative particle transport through three-dimensional fracture networks

Mass transfer of solutes between fractures and the surrounding rock matrix exerts a noticeable signature on the tail of travel time distributions. When the width of the matrix is assumed to be infinite and advective transport through the fracture is sufficiently fast, the tails of the travel time distributions exhibit a classically expected slope of ψ(t) ∝ t -3/2 . However, studies have yet to characterize how solute transfer between fractures via diffusion through finite matrix blocks influences the tail’s slope in three-dimensional fractured media. Here, in this study, we assess the impact of finite matrix block size on breakthrough curve shape at different spatio-temporal scales by con ducting particle tracking simulations in three-dimensional discrete fracture networks. We consider a variety of hydrodynamic and geostructural proper ties to determine their relative impact on the resulting travel time distributions. We observe that the impact of matrix diffusion through a finite block on travel time distributions is similar to that of an infinite matrix block when the fracture spacing is sufficiently large, matrix diffusion is relatively weak, or transport is considered at an early control plane distance. We observe that the converse of these conditions, results in deviations from the classical ψ(t) ∝ t -3/2 scaling. These results provide a first step toward developing a metric to assess when finite block size effects are expected to significantly influence transport.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating crown scorch predictions from a computational fluid dynamics wildland fire simulator

Abstract Background Crown scorch—the heating of live leaves, needles, and buds in the vegetative canopy to lethal temperatures without widespread combustion—is one of the most common fire effects shaping post-fire canopies. Despite the ability of computational fluid dynamic models to finely resolve fire activity and buoyant plume dynamics including heterogenous 3D distributions of forest canopy heating, these models have had only limited use in simulating fire effects and have not been used to evaluate crown scorch. Here, we demonstrate a method of evaluating crown scorch using a computational fluid dynamics model, FIRETEC, and validate this approach by simulating the experiments that were used to develop Van Wagner’s 1973 crown scorch model. Results The average scorch height prediction from FIRETEC compares well with the empirical model derived by Van Wagner, which is the most widely used empirical model for crown scorch. We further find that the 3D buoyant plume dynamics from a steady and homogeneous idealized heat source on the ground results in a spatially heterogenous crown scorch pattern reflecting complex heating dynamics that are best represented by percent scorch rather than height of scorch. Conclusions The ability of the computational fluid dynamics model to capture variation in crown scorch due to 3D buoyant plume dynamics provides direct links between forest structure, fire behavior, and fire effects that can be used by forest managers and researchers to better understand how fires result in crown damage under various environmental and management scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The occurrence and impact of carbon-oxygen shell mergers in massive stars

In their final stages before undergoing a core-collapse supernova, massive stars may experience mergers between internal shells where carbon (C) and oxygen (O) are consumed as fuels for nuclear burning. This interaction, known as a C-O shell merger, can dramatically alter the internal structure of the star, leading to peculiar nucleosynthesis and potentially influencing the supernova explosion and the propagation of the subsequent supernova shock. Our understanding of the frequency and consequences of C-O shell mergers remains limited. This study aims to identify, for the first time, early diagnostics in the stellar structure that lead to C-O shell mergers in more advanced stages. We also assess their role in shaping the chemical abundances in the most metal poor stars of the Galaxy. We analyzed a set of 209 stellar evolution models available in the literature, with different initial progenitor masses and metallicities. We then compared the nucleosynthetic yields from a subset of these models with the abundances of odd-Z elements in metal-poor stars. We find that the occurrence of C-O shell mergers in stellar models can be predicted with a good approximation based on the outcomes of the central He burning phase, specifically, from the CO core mass (M CO ) and the 12 C central mass fraction (X C12 ): 90% of models with a C-O merger have X C12 <0.277 and M CO <4.90 M ⊙ , with average values of M CO = 4.02 M ⊙ and X C12 = 0.176. The quantities X C12 and M CO are indirectly affected from several stellar properties, including the initial stellar mass and metallicity. Additionally, we confirm that the Sc-rich and K-rich yields from models with C-O mergers would solve the long-standing underproduction of these elements in massive stars. Our results emphasize the crucial role of C-O shell mergers in enriching the interstellar medium, particularly in the production of odd-Z elements. This highlights the necessity of further investigations to refine their influence on presupernova stellar properties and their broader impact on Galactic chemical evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Terrain-Influenced Winds and Fire-Fire Interactions in Wildland Fire Simulations [Dissertation]

Ensemble-based approaches to prescribed fire planning cannot be supported by computational fluid dynamics based models like FIRETEC and the Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) because they are too computationally expensive and cannot leverage large eddy simulation approaches like CAWFE and WRF-SFIRE because they have too coarse of resolution. QUIC-Fire was developed to fill this gap but it cannot currently address complex terrain, that is typical for instance in the Western United States. This dissertation describes a variety of improvements made to QUIC-Fire and its various incorporated algorithms in an effort to make it a viable tool in simulating wildland and prescribed fires on terrain. The modifications made to QUIC-Fire are described in three chapters. The first chapter describes the extension of the diagnostic wind model QUIC-URB, the wind engine of QUIC-Fire, to a terrain-following coordinate system. The terraininfluenced winds it generates are analyzed and compared. In particular, this chapter presents the mathematical derivation of the wind solver leading to a linear system of equations that are solved through the successive over-relaxation method. The model is validated against a standard test used in previous works (the Askervein Hill) and against a new dataset from measurements in the Socorro Mountains, New Mexico. The terrain-following implementation captures the correct phenomenology for the isolated Askervein Hill, with a wind speed up at the top of the hill. The model agrees well with measurements on the upwind side of the peak, but overestimates speed-up on the downwind side of the hill. This is due to the inability of the model to generate flow separation and wake-eddy dynamics. On a common laptop, the divergence-free wind field is obtained in 6 s, making the solver appealing for coupled fire-atmosphere simulations. The Socorro Mountain is highly complex, with many cliff faces, peaks, and valleys. Although the model captures the magnitude and direction of inlet and outlet areas of the domain, it performs rather poorly in the valley region and in the regions near the steep cliffs. Hence, the model shows good agreement with data in areas of open sloped terrain but lacks in areas where flow separation and thermally driven effects may be present (neither effect is addressed in this work). In the second chapter the implementation of the terrain-following version of QUIC-URB into QUIC-Fire, and the necessary changes needed to include terrain are described. No changes to the underlying fire spread algorithm are made other than what is required to correctly account for the inclusion of terrain. Previously published FIRETEC results that use five different topographies that share the same centerline profile are compared to simulation results from the modified QUIC-Fire that use the same topographies and fuels. QUIC-Fire results show overall similar behaviors in terms of how the topographies affect fire shapes and trends in spread rates. Due to the terrain-following version of QUIC-URB being unable to generate flow separations at the crest of hills, fire spread rates in these regions across all topographies are over-predicted when compared to FIRETEC. Lateral fire growth shows similar trends with FIRETEC between topographies but does not capture the increase in spread due to a diagonal interface between grassland and forested fuel region of the domain. These results suggest that there are three algorithms within QUIC-Fire that could use improvement: how flame tilt angle is accounted for, the incorporation of non-local drag effects, and the inclusion of the wake-eddy parameterizations that are used in QUIC-URB. Lastly, the third chapter describes a modification to the initial guess used for the calculation of the QUIC-URB mass-conserved wind solution during fire simulations. The modification is aimed at improving fire-fire interactions in QUIC-Fire simulations. The modification consists of using the solution from the previous timestep as the starting point for the calculation of the solution for the next timestep. Fire-fire interactions is greatly improved by the change but a new source of error is introduced. Due to how plumes are modelled in QUIC-Fire the new solution contains errors where gaps in the plume structure are present. However, these errors are mostly limited to the upper atmosphere, where they do not affect fire behavior at the surface, and their magnitude isn’t significant enough to discount the amount of new fire phenomenology now captured in QUIC-Fire with the change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗