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DOE OSTI2020

A Mathematical Framework for Representing Cyber-Physical System Interdependencies and Resilience

U.S. critical infrastructure is increasingly composed of integrated cyber-physical systems (CPS) whose components are operationally interdependent. These interdependencies can create additional vulnerabilities beyond those that are typically evaluated through independent physical and cyber risk assessments. These additional vulnerabilities, previously undetected at the sub-system and/or component level, could cause cascading effects across both the physical and cyber domains that could lead to infrastructure disruption or failure. This paper will review an initial mathematical framework developed to help understand the dynamics of these interfacing physical and cyber components at a holistic system level. The resulting framework also provides a method for modeling and assessing the resilience of CPS in complex and adaptive systems. It frames the system in terms of mission performance and the potential effects to performance caused by attacks that are cyber, physical, or blended in nature. The framework utilizes a systems-based, state-space modeling approach to reason about risk, resilience, and interdependencies in CPS. Probabilities are applied to each CPS component regarding a threat (both man-made and natural) and the likelihood of that particular component being impacted, along with indirect impact to other interdependent components. These component-level impacts from threats then translate into mission-level impact and systemic state change.

Brigantic, Robert T.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Autonomous Tools for Attack Surface Reduction (Final Report)

The electric power grid is a complex critical infrastructure that forms the lifeline of modern society, and its secure and reliable operation is of paramount importance to national security and economic wellbeing. However, recent findings documented in authoritative sources indicate the threat of cyber-based attacks growing in numbers and sophistication. However, securing the grid against stealthy cyberattacks is a challenging task due to legacy nature of the infrastructure coupled with dynamic nature of threat landscape and ever-growing sophistication of the adversaries. Additionally, the grid’s attack surface continues to grow with the increased dependence on digital communications and control that now extends to each consumer through smart meters and distributed energy resources. Unfortunately, this expansive surface increases the grid’s vulnerability and further exposes critical control systems in both substations and control centers. To respond to this emerging need, we had successfully assembled an interdisciplinary team with academic- industry partnership to successfully conduct research, development, evaluation, demonstration, and commercialization of attack surface reduction tools, whose goal was to significantly reduce the cyber attack surface in the North American power grid. Our proposed project was a synergistic collaborative effort leveraging the synergistic expertise of the team members across power systems, cyber security and CPS security, testbeds, field deployments and demonstration, and successful commercialization. The following are the specific tasks that have been successfully completed two phases (2016-2020). Phase I: Task 1: Developed and implemented a robust Project Management and Data Management Plan, coupled with a well thought out Risk Mitigation Plan. Task 2.1: Developed a comprehensive framework that continually assesses and autonomously reduces the attack surface for the power grid control environment spanning across substations, control center and the SCADA network to significantly reduce the risks of cyber attacks. Task 2.2: Developed attack surface analysis techniques, metrics, and tools that assess the attack surface at multiple levels including the control center, substations, and the SCADA network. Task 2.3: Developed attack surface reduction techniques and tools that dynamically reduce attack surface and hence increase attacker’s cost without interfering in the critical functions of the system. Task 2.4: Prototyped, implemented, and quantitatively evaluated/validated the techniques and tools on a realistic industrial CPS security testbed environment by leveraging the unique resources of the team. Task 3: Developed Commercialization plan to transition the developed tools into power system industry stakeholders for a broader adoption by leveraging the expertise of our industrial members. Phase II: Task 4: Successfully completed field demonstration, verification, and evaluation of the effectiveness of the attack surface analysis and reduction techniques on a realistic utility testbed environment. This also involved the development of realistic scenarios, sound metrics, data sets, evaluation criteria, and documentation. Technology integration & Field demonstration: The project had significantly advanced the state-of-the-art research and practice in improving the cybersecurity of our nation’s power grid infrastructure against cyber threats. In particular, the proposed, designed, and deployed attack surface analysis and reduction algorithms and tools have contributed to significantly reducing the exposure and risk of the devices, substations, and the integrated SCADA/EMS/ DMS grid environment to cyber threat. Strong demonstration and evaluation techniques have verified the feasibility of the developed techniques on realistic cyber-physical testbeds and utility partner's real grid environment, and collaborative research and evaluation of attack surface reduction techniques (for wide-are monitoring and control) within a vendor (GE) EMS platform. The Attack Host Analyzer (AHA) tool that was developed through this project was made available through GitHub.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2002

Understanding and responding to earthquake hazards

Advances in understanding of the earthquake cycle and in assessing earthquake hazards is a topic of great importance. Dynamic earthquake hazard assessments resolved for a range of spatial scales and time scales will allow a more systematic approach to prioritizing the retrofitting of vulnerable structures, relocating populations at risk, protecting lifelines, preparing for disasters, and educating the public.

earth science vision distributed spacecraft virtua↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Extended Duration: The SIRIUS 21 Crew Perspective

The SIRIUS (Scientific International Research In a Unique terrestrial Station) missions represent a collaborative effort between NASA and Russia’s Institute for Biomedical Problems (IBMP) to conduct a series of long duration isolation and confinement spaceflight analog missions. Three missions of 17-day, 4-month, and 8-month duration (SIRIUS 17, 19, and 21) have been completed at IBMP’s Ground-Based Experimental Complex / Nazemnyy eksperimental'nyy kompleks (NEK) in Moscow, Russia. The international SIRIUS 21 crew comprising representatives from the United States, United Arab Emirates and Russia recently completed the 8-month analog lunar mission. The extended duration mission included simulated lunar transit, orbital, and surface operations with corresponding deep space communication delay, during which the crew participated in nearly 70 studies, eight of which were sponsored by NASA’s Human Research Program. The studies examined the effect of isolation and confinement on the behavioral health of research subjects, and investigated medical countermeasures, team performance, crew dynamics, crew autonomy, food system risks, consequences of confinement and associated physiological stressors. SIRIUS 21 crewmembers also participated in operational tasks such as Rover and CubeSat assembly, simulated lunar sample assessment, VR activities, robotic arm training, environmental systems monitoring, exercise, greenhouse maintenance and 3D printing. Communication with Mission Control was limited to 30-minute periods every two hours. Since access to the internet and email was restricted, simulated ground support provided the Crew’s primary source of daily news and mission information. This panel discussion will include presentations from the US SIRIUS 21 crewmembers – William Brown and Ashley Kowalski – about their experience participating in the mission and science. A facilitated question and answer session will follow with attendees encouraged to ask questions and join in discussion with the SIRIUS 21 crewmembers about their experiences. William Brown came to SIRIUS 21 with experience spread across multiple industries, including the military, defense contracting, healthcare consulting, software engineering, and logistics. He has lived in the Middle East, Central Asia, and Russia. A former Boren Scholar, Brown is fluent in Russian. He holds a Master of International Business degree from the University of South Carolina’s Darla Moore School of Business. Prior to that, he earned a bachelor’s degree in Russian language, literature, and culture from the University of South Carolina. There, he also completed additional undergraduate coursework in computer science. Ashley Kowalski is a Project Leader in The Aerospace Corporation’s International Partnerships Department, where she works with, represents, and provides technical support to the the U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command International Affairs (SSC/IA) office. Through her numerous national and international assignments (Russia, China, and Germany), she has worked on topics related to international space systems, national security space systems, civil systems (including human spaceflight and civil launch projects), space policy, satellite industry analysis, and satellite manufacturing start-ups. She is proficient in Russian and German, and fluent in Polish. Kowalski received her Bachelor of Science and Master of Science degrees in mechanical and aerospace engineering from George Washington University in 2011 and 2012, respectively.

S. E. Whiting↗

NASA NTRS2005

A Testbed Demonstration of an Intelligent Archive in a Knowledge Building System

The last decade's influx of raw data and derived geophysical parameters from several Earth observing satellites to NASA data centers has created a data-rich environment for Earth science research and applications. While advances in hardware and information management have made it possible to archive petabytes of data and distribute terabytes of data daily to a broad community of users, further progress is necessary in the transformation of data into information, and information into knowledge that can be used in particular applications in order to realize the full potential of these valuable datasets. In examining what is needed to enable this progress in the data provider environment that exists today and is expected to evolve in the next several years, we arrived at the concept of an Intelligent Archive in context of a Knowledge Building System (IA/KBS). Our prior work and associated papers investigated usage scenarios, required capabilities, system architecture, data volume issues, and supporting technologies. We identified six key capabilities of an IA/KBS: Virtual Product Generation, Significant Event Detection, Automated Data Quality Assessment, Large-Scale Data Mining, Dynamic Feedback Loop, and Data Discovery and Efficient Requesting. Among these capabilities, large-scale data mining is perceived by many in the community to be an area of technical risk. One of the main reasons for this is that standard data mining research and algorithms operate on datasets that are several orders of magnitude smaller than the actual sizes of datasets maintained by realistic earth science data archives. Therefore, we defined a test-bed activity to implement a large-scale data mining algorithm in a pseudo-operational scale environment and to examine any issues involved. The application chosen for applying the data mining algorithm is wildfire prediction over the continental U.S. This paper reports a number of observations based on our experience with this test-bed. While proof-of-concept for data mining scalability and utility has been a major goal for the research reported here, it was not the only one. The other five capabilities of an WKBS named above have been considered as well, and an assessment of the implications of our experience for these other areas will also be presented. The lessons learned through the testbed effort and presented in this paper will benefit technologists, scientists, and system operators as they consider introducing IA/KBS capabilities into production systems.

Ramapriyan, Hampapuram↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Hybrid Dynamic/Steady-State Tool With Protection Simulation for Cascading-Outage Analysis of Extreme Events in Power Systems

The bulk electric power grid is subject to vulnerabilities from component outages, which in certain combinations (extreme events) might lead to cascading outages. Some of these outages can be severe enough to trigger brownouts and blackouts. Much is known about mitigating the first few failures near the beginning of a cascade, but there are few established methods and tools for directly analyzing the risks of cascading component outages over a longer time scale. Current power system tools have limited ability to perform detailed and accurate cascading-outage analysis, which could be computationally intensive. The Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool (DCAT) enables power system planning engineers to more realistically assess the consequences of extreme contingencies and potential cascading events across their systems and interconnections. DCAT has several unique features: (i) detailed hybrid dynamic and steady-state analysis of power systems to mimic real-world cascading outages, (ii) detailed modeling of protection systems embedded in the dynamic simulation, (iii) simulation of corrective action after transients, (iv) simulation of islanding , and (v) high-performance computing capability to simulate a large number of contingencies in a reasonable time. DCAT outputs will help find technically sound solutions to reduce the risk of cascading outages. This paper provides details of DCAT methodology and shows its capabilities with extreme events on real-world cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cross-scale dynamics and the evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases

When emerging pathogens encounter new host species for which they are poorly adapted, they must evolve to escape extinction. Pathogens experience selection on traits at multiple scales, including replication rates within host individuals and transmissibility between hosts. We analyze a stochastic model linking pathogen growth and competition within individuals to transmission between individuals. Our analysis reveals a new factor, the cross-scale reproductive number of a mutant virion, that quantifies how quickly mutant strains increase in frequency when they initially appear in the infected host population. This cross-scale reproductive number combines with viral mutation rates, single-strain reproductive numbers, and transmission bottleneck width to determine the likelihood of evolutionary emergence, and whether evolution occurs swiftly or gradually within chains of transmission. We find that wider transmission bottlenecks facilitate emergence of pathogens with short-term infections, but hinder emergence of pathogens exhibiting cross-scale selective conflict and long-term infections. Furthermore, our results provide a framework to advance the integration of laboratory, clinical, and field data in the context of evolutionary theory, laying the foundation for a new generation of evidence-based risk assessment of emergence threats.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Late-time small body disruptions for planetary defense

Here, diverting hazardous small bodies on impact trajectories with the Earth can in some circumstances be impossible without risking disrupting them. Disruption is a much more difficult planetary defense scenario to assess, being linked both to the response of the body to shock loading and the much more complicated gravitational dynamics of the fragments in the solar system relative to pure deflection scenarios. In this work we present a new simulation suite built on N-body gravitational methods that solves fragment orbits in the full gravitational system without recourse to more approximate methods. We assess the accuracy of our simulations and the simplifying assumptions we adopt to make the system tractable, and then discuss in more detail several specific, plausible planetary defense scenarios based on real close encounters. We find that disruption can be a very effective planetary defense strategy even for very late (sub-year) interventions, and should be considered an effective backup strategy should preferred methods, which require long warning times, fail.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2022

Regolith Simulant Preparation and Geotechnical Characterization for Plume Surface Interaction Testing

Descent engine plumes interact with the lunar surface and accelerate regolith particles to potentially high velocities. These ejecta create risks to surface assets that have yet to be fully assessed. To better understand these risks, plume surface interactions can be simulated on the ground by firing a test engine plume into a bin of lunar regolith simulant under vacuum conditions. The dynamics of the resultant ejecta can then be recorded. In this technical memorandum we discuss the processes used in preparing a 150 kg bin of lunar regolith simulant for plume surface interaction ground tests under vacuum conditions for the NASA STMD Plume Surface Interaction project. We present our approach to mitigating regolith simulant eruptions during pump-down, the methods used to fill and reset the regolith simulant bin for each test, and the techniques used to characterize the consistency of regolith simulant geotechnical properties before each new firing. The challenges of preparing a regolith simulant test bin below an ambient pressure of one atmosphere, particularly on the large scale, could largely be overcome with a system that could fill the test bin with simulant inside the chamber and under vacuum conditions.

lunar regolith↗

DOE OSTI2020

Atmospheric Modeling to Enable Prediction of Golden Eagle Interactions with Wind Power Plants

This panel will explore the use of technologies and methods that enhance our understanding of eagle behavior in and near wind energy facilities. The decreasing costs of tracking technologies and substantial computational capabilities are allowing for finer resolution and confidence of eagle observations and the modeling of such datasets increase our understanding of their movements and use of airspace and underlying landscapes. Behavior ecologists' intrinsic knowledge of eagle behavior can augment and further enhance inferences from technology-derived information alone, e.g., GPS, camera, radar, etc. The panel will discuss the state of science and, given the cost-effective tools available, what research objectives are emerging to better assess and reduce wind-eagle risk. The discussion will focus on the following areas: Integrating Behavioral and Quantitative Ecologist perspectives of bald eagle and golden eagle behavior and wind energy risk; Regional-scale vs. facility-scale investigations of bald eagle and golden eagle use of airspace. For example, avoidance behavior to assess risk at facility-scale, and eagle use of landscapes, e.g., territories, nesting, and life-cycle behavior; Bald eagle and golden eagle use of airspace and nexus with atmospheric flow dynamics of wind energy generation; GPS, biomonitoring, tracking camera, radar, and other tools/techniques for deepening the knowledge of eagle behavior in and around wind farms.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗

DOE OSTI2025

AI Benchmark Democratization and Carpentry

Benchmarks are a cornerstone of modern machine learning, enabling reproducibility, comparison, and scientific progress. However, AI benchmarks are increasingly complex, requiring dynamic, AI-focused workflows. Rapid evolution in model architectures, scale, datasets, and deployment contexts makes evaluation a moving target. Large language models often memorize static benchmarks, causing a gap between benchmark results and real-world performance. Beyond traditional static benchmarks, continuous adaptive benchmarking frameworks are needed to align scientific assessment with deployment risks. This calls for skills and education in AI Benchmark Carpentry. From our experience with MLCommons, educational initiatives, and programs like the DOE's Trillion Parameter Consortium, key barriers include high resource demands, limited access to specialized hardware, lack of benchmark design expertise, and uncertainty in relating results to application domains. Current benchmarks often emphasize peak performance on top-tier hardware, offering limited guidance for diverse, real-world scenarios. Benchmarking must become dynamic, incorporating evolving models, updated data, and heterogeneous platforms while maintaining transparency, reproducibility, and interpretability. Democratization requires both technical innovation and systematic education across levels, building sustained expertise in benchmark design and use. Benchmarks should support application-relevant comparisons, enabling informed, context-sensitive decisions. Dynamic, inclusive benchmarking will ensure evaluation keeps pace with AI evolution and supports responsible, reproducible, and accessible AI deployment. Community efforts can provide a foundation for AI Benchmark Carpentry.

von Laszewski, Gregor [Virginia U.]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale Interactions between Local Short- and Long-Term Spatio-Temporal Mechanisms and Their Impact on California Wildfire Dynamics

California has experienced a surge in wildfires, prompting research into contributing factors, including weather and climate conditions. This study investigates the complex, multiscale interactions between large-scale climate patterns, such as the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and their influence on moisture and temperature fluctuations, and wildfire dynamics in California. The combined impacts of PDO and BSISO on intraseasonal fire weather changes; the interplay between fire weather index (FWI), relative humidity, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and temperature in assessing wildfire risks; and geographical variations in the relationship between the FWI and climatic factors within California are examined. The study employs a multi-pronged approach, analyzing wildfire frequency and burned areas alongside climate patterns and atmospheric conditions. The findings reveal significant variability in wildfire activity across different climate conditions, with heightened risks during specific BSISO phases, La-Niña, and cool PDO. The influence of BSISO varies depending on its interaction with PDO. Temperature, relative humidity, and VPD show strong predictive significance for wildfire risks, with significant relationships between FWI and temperature in elevated regions (correlation, r > 0.7, p ≤ 0.05) and FWI and relative humidity along the Sierra Nevada Mountains (r ≤ -0.7, p ≤ 0.05).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Which Way is Up? Lessons Learned from Space Shuttle Sensorimotor Research

The Space Shuttle Program provided the opportunity to examine sensorimotor adaptation to space flight in unprecedented numbers of astronauts, including many over multiple missions. Space motion sickness (SMS) severity was highly variable across crewmembers. SMS generally lasted 2-3 days in-flight with approximately 1/3 of crewmembers experiencing moderate to severe symptoms, and decreased incidence in repeat flyers. While SMS has proven difficult to predict from susceptibility to terrestrial analogs, symptoms were alleviated by medications, restriction of early activities, maintaining familiar orientation with respect to the visual environment and maintaining contact cues. Adaptive changes were also reflected by the oculomotor and perceptual disturbances experienced early inflight and by the perceptual and motor coordination problems experienced during re-entry and landing. According to crew self-reports, systematic head movements performed during reentry, as long as paced within one's threshold for motion tolerance, facilitated the early readaptation process. The Shuttle provided early postflight crew access to document the initial performance decrements and time course of recovery. These early postflight measurements were critical to inform the program of risks associated with extending the duration of Shuttle missions. Neurological postflight deficits were documented using a standardized subjective rating by flight surgeons. Computerized dynamic posturography was also implemented as a quantitative means of assessing sensorimotor function to support crew return-to-duty assessments. Towards the end of the Shuttle Program, more emphasis has been placed on mapping physiological changes to functional performance. Future commercial flights will benefit from pre-mission training including exposures to launch and entry G transitions and sensorimotor adaptability assessments. While SMS medication usage will continue to be refined, non-pharmacological countermeasures (e.g., sensory aids) will have both space and Earth-based applications. Early postflight field tests are recommended to provide the evidence base for best practices for future commercial flight programs. Learning Objective: Overview of the Space Shuttle Program regarding adaptive changes in sensorimotor function, including what was learned from research, what was implemented for medical operations, and what is recommended for commercial flights.

Wood, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) (Orion) Occupant Protection

Dr. Nancy J. Currie, of the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC), Chief Engineer at Johnson Space Center (JSC), requested an assessment of the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) occupant protection as a result of issues identified by the Constellation Program and Orion Project. The NESC, in collaboration with the Human Research Program (HRP), investigated new methods associated with occupant protection for the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV), known as Orion. The primary objective of this assessment was to investigate new methods associated with occupant protection for the CEV, known as Orion, that would ensure the design provided minimal risk to the crew during nominal and contingency landings in an acceptable set of environmental and spacecraft failure conditions. This documents contains the outcome of the NESC assessment. NASA/TM-2013-217380, "Application of the Brinkley Dynamic Response Criterion to Spacecraft Transient Dynamic Events." supercedes this document.

Currie-Gregg, Nancy J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Self‐gated, dynamic contrast‐enhanced magnetic resonance imaging with compressed‐sensing reconstruction for evaluating endothelial permeability in the aortic root of atherosclerotic mice

High‐risk atherosclerotic plaques are characterized by active inflammation and abundant leaky microvessels. We present a self‐gated, dynamic contrast‐enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE‐MRI) acquisition with compressed sensing reconstruction and apply it to assess longitudinal changes in endothelial permeability in the aortic root of Apoe −/− atherosclerotic mice during natural disease progression. Twenty‐four, 8‐week‐old, female Apoe −/− mice were divided into four groups (n = 6 each) and imaged with self‐gated DCE‐MRI at 4, 8, 12, and 16 weeks after high‐fat diet initiation, and then euthanized for CD68 immunohistochemistry for macrophages. Eight additional mice were kept on a high‐fat diet and imaged longitudinally at the same time points. Aortic‐root pseudo‐concentration curves were analyzed using a validated piecewise linear model. Contrast agent wash‐in and washout slopes ( b 1 and b 2 ) were measured as surrogates of aortic root endothelial permeability and compared with macrophage density by immunohistochemistry. b 2 , indicating contrast agent washout, was significantly higher in mice kept on an high‐fat diet for longer periods of time ( p = 0.03). Group comparison revealed significant differences between mice on a high‐fat diet for 4 versus 16 weeks ( p = 0.03). Macrophage density also significantly increased with diet duration ( p = 0.009). Spearman correlation between b 2 from DCE‐MRI and macrophage density indicated a weak relationship between the two parameters (r = 0.28, p = 0.20). Validated piecewise linear modeling of the DCE‐MRI data showed that the aortic root contrast agent washout rate is significantly different during disease progression. Further development of this technique from a single‐slice to a 3D acquisition may enable better investigation of the relationship between in vivo imaging of endothelial permeability and atherosclerotic plaques' genetic, molecular, and cellular makeup in this important model of disease.

Calcagno, Claudia↗

NASA NTRS2016

Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) (Orion) Occupant Protection: Appendices - Part 1

Dr. Nancy J. Currie, of the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC), Chief Engineer at Johnson Space Center (JSC), requested an assessment of the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) occupant protection as a result of issues identified by the Constellation Program and Orion Project. The NESC, in collaboration with the Human Research Program (HRP), investigated new methods associated with occupant protection for the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV), known as Orion. The primary objective of this assessment was to investigate new methods associated with occupant protection for the CEV, known as Orion, that would ensure the design provided minimal risk to the crew during nominal and contingency landings in an acceptable set of environmental and spacecraft failure conditions. This documents contains the appendices to the NESC assessment report. NASA/TM-2013-217380, Application of the Brinkley Dynamic Response Criterion to Spacecraft Transient Dynamic Events supersedes this document.

Currie-Gregg, Nancy J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Unmitigated uncertainties are known to have previously led to failed development programs; in order to combat these uncertainties, risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties is demonstrated on a three-element Human Landing System (HLS) concept, which allows tracking of current best estimates of the vehicle’s performance and assessment of its robustness against uncertainties. This methodology has two key parts: ﬁrst, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as to model the HLS architecture. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission proﬁle events. Range estimating — a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities — is then adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in the DYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology, the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to eﬃciently explore the architecture design space with respect to the set of uncertainty parameters. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo on the surrogate models. This probabilistic methodology was proved to provide insight into the underlying uncertainties of the three-element HLS architecture.

Stephanie Y Zhu↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Stephanie Y. Zhu↗