Optimization Method to Branch and Bound Large SBO State Spaces Under Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment via use of LENDIT Scales and S2R2 Sets
Traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods have been developed and are quite effective in evaluating risk associated with complex systems, but lack the capability to evaluate complex dynamic systems. These time and energy scales associated with the transient may vary as a function of transition time to a different physical state. Dynamic PRA (DPRA) methods provide a more rigorous analysis of complex dynamic systems, while complete, results in issues associated with combinatorial explosion. In order to address the combinatorial complexity arising from the number of possible state configurations and discretization of transition times, a characteristic scaling metric (LENDIT – length, energy, number, distribution, information and time) is proposed as a means to describe systems uniformly and thus provide means to describe relational constraints expected in the dynamics of a complex (coupled) systems. Thus when LENDIT is used to characterize four sets – ‘state, system, resource and response’ (S2R2) – describing reactor operations (normal and off-normal), LENDIT and S2R2 in combination have the potential to ‘branch and bound’ the state space investigated by DPRA. In this paper we introduce the concept of LENDIT scales and S2R2 sets applied to a branch-and-bound algorithm and apply the methods to a station black out transient (SBO).