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At least 235 records · Page 13

Bayesian Framework for Multi-Timescale State Estimation in Low-Observable Distribution Systems

To support the smart grid paradigm, there has been a significant increase in sensor deployments and metering infrastructure in distribution systems. However, the measurements provided by these sensors and metering devices are typically sampled at different rates and could suffer from losses during the aggregation process. It is crucial to effectively reconcile the time-series measurements for a reliable state estimation. While weighted least squares has been the traditional approach for state estimation, sparsity-based approaches like matrix completion have become popular due to their superior performance in low-observability conditions. This paper proposes a Bayesian framework for both multi-timescale data aggregation and matrix completion based state estimation. Specifically, the multiscale time-series data aggregated from heterogenous sources are reconciled using a multitask Gaussian process that exploits the spatio-temporal correlations. Here, the resulting consistent timeseries alongwith the confidence bound on the imputations are fed into a Bayesian matrix completion method augmented with linearized power-flow constraints to accurately estimate the states in low-observability conditions. Results on three phase unbalanced IEEE 37 and IEEE 123 bus test systems reveal the superior performance of the proposed Bayesian framework. The computational complexity for the proposed Bayesian framework is also quantified.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Probabilistic Inference of Low-Surface-Brightness Galaxy Morphological Parameters Using Simulation-Based Inference

Low-surface-brightness galaxies (LSBGs) are diffuse, often dark-matter-dominated systems whose faintness makes their structural parameters difficult to measure reliably in wide-field imaging surveys. Robust parameter inference, including uncertainty quantification, is important for population studies and for comparisons with models of galaxy formation, as future surveys are expected to produce increasingly large samples of diffuse galaxies. In practice, LSBG profile modeling is sensitive to sky- background errors, masking choices, contaminating background sources, and the computational cost of obtaining posterior-level uncertainties for large samples. Motivated by these questions, we develop a simulation-based inference (SBI) framework for estimating posterior distributions of LSBG morphological parameters from simulated galaxy images. Using PyImfit, we generate DES-like single-Sersic profile LSBG images with known position angle, ellipticity, Sersic index, effective surface brightness, and effective radius. We then train a normalizing-flow-based neural posterior estimator using the sbi package to infer these parameters from the simulated images. For isolated simulated galaxies, the SBI posterior recovers the true input parameters, produces posterior predictive residuals consistent with the assumed noise model, and shows good empirical calibration in a DES-motivated test regime. We also compare SBI with PyImfit-based MCMC inference and find broadly comparable posterior constraints, while SBI enables substantially faster posterior sampling after training. Finally, we test robustness to compact background contaminants. A model trained only on isolated galaxies produces undercovered posteriors on contaminated images, whereas training on simulations with variable contaminant positions and fluxes improves calibration across contaminated test sets. These results demonstrate the promise of SBI for scalable, uncertainty-aware LSBG morphology inference, while emphasizing that posterior reliability strongly depends on whether training simulations include relevant observational complications.

Batbayar, Bilguun [U. Chicago (main)]↗

Distribution function of nuclei from $\mathcal{e}^±$ scattering in the presence of a strong primordial magnetic field

The amplitude of the primordial magnetic field (PMF) is constrained from observational limits on primordial nuclear abundances. Within this constraint, it is possible that nuclear motion is regulated by Coulomb scattering with electrons and positrons (e ± s), while e ± s are affected by a PMF rather than collisions. For example, at a temperature of 10 9 K, thermal nuclei typically experience ~ 10 21 scatterings per second that are dominated by very small angle scattering leading to minuscule changes in the nuclear kinetic energy of order $\mathcal{O}$(1) eV. In this paper the upper limit on the effects of a possible discretization of the e ± momenta by the PMF on the nuclear momentum distribution is estimated under the extreme assumptions that the momentum of the e ± is relaxed before and after Coulomb scattering to Landau levels, and that during Coulomb scattering the PMF is neglected. This assumption explicitly breaks the time reversal invariance of Coulomb scattering, and the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution is not a trivial steady state solution of the Boltzmann equation under these assumptions. Here we numerically evaluate the collision terms in the Boltzmann equation, and show that the introduction of a special direction in the e ± distribution by the PMF generates no directional dependence of the collisional destruction term of nuclei. Large anisotropies in the nuclear distribution function are then constrained from big bang nucleosynthesis. Ultimately, we conclude that a PMF does not significantly affect the isotropy or big bang nucleosynthesis.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Microscopic calculation of fission product yields with particle-number projection

Fission fragments' charge and mass distribution is an important input to applications ranging from basic science to energy production or nuclear nonproliferation. In simulations of nucleosynthesis or calculations of superheavy elements, these quantities must be computed from models, as they are needed in nuclei where no experimental information is available. Until now, standard techniques to estimate these distributions were not capable of accounting for fine-structure effects, such as the odd-even staggering of the charge distributions. In this work, we combine a fully microscopic collective model of fission dynamics with a recent extension of the particle number projection formalism to provide the highest-fidelity prediction of the primary fission fragment distributions for the neutron-induced fission of 235 U and 239 Pu. Here, we show that particle-number projection is an essential ingredient to reproduce odd-even staggering in the charge yields and benchmark the performance of various empirical probability laws that could simulate its effect. This new approach also enables for the first time the realistic determination of two-dimensional isotopic yields within nuclear density functional theory.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

CHARGE-MAP: An integrated framework to study the multicriteria EV charging infrastructure expansion problem

The widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in recent years has necessitated the development of effective charging infrastructures. However, charging infrastructure expansion is a multifaceted problem that requires careful consideration of the existing infrastructure, spatiotemporal distribution of charging demands, power-grid capacity, and budget constraints. Here, to approach this complex problem, we present CHARGE-MAP, a data-driven simulation-optimization framework, focused on ensuring meaningful charging experience for individual EV owners. CHARGE-MAP integrates three modules: an agent-based simulation module that estimates spatiotemporal distribution of charging demands by modeling EV adopter mobility and charging behavior; an optimization module that determines optimal new charging station/charger locations and capacities, while minimizing expected detour distances and wait-times with a limited number of new stations; and a power module that determines how to connect the stations to the power grid while maintaining its stability. Using the state of Virginia (consisting of 95 counties and 38 independent cities) as a case study, our results show that CHARGE-MAP can meet the demand of ~198,600 predicted EVs with 1,305 new public charging stations and 2,164 new chargers. It reduces average detour distances for charging by 66% and wait-times at stations by 72% compared to the existing infrastructure. Furthermore, transformer capacity requirement analysis reveals that only 1.8% of residential transformers require upgrades, while over 80% of commercial charging locations can be supported with modest transformer infrastructure (25 to 50 kVA). This indicates that targeted investments can facilitate cost-effective EV integration. Consequently, CHARGE-MAP provides policymakers and urban planners with crucial data-driven insights for effective EV charging infrastructure expansion. Sign up for PNAS alerts.

charging infrastructure↗

Estimating the Value of Improved Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption Forecasts for Utility Resource Planning

Misforecasting the adoption of customer-owned distributed photovoltaics (DPV) can have operational and financial implications for utilities - forecasting capabilities can be improved, but generally at a cost.This paper informs this decision-space by quantifying the costs of misforecasting across a wide range of DPV growth rates and misforecast severities. Using a simplified probabilistic method presented within, an analyst can make a first-order estimate of the financial benefit of improving a utility's forecasting capabilities, and thus be better informed about whether to make such an investment. For example, we show that a utility with 10 TWh per year of retail electric sales who initially estimates that the increase in DPV's contribution to total generation could range from 2 percent to 7.5 percent over the next 15 years could expect total present-value savings of approximately 4 million if they could keep the severity of successive five-year misforecasts within +/- 25 percent. We also have more general discussions about how misforecasting DPV impacts the buildout and operation of the bulk power system - for example, we observed that misforecasting DPV most strongly influenced the amount of utility-scale PV that gets built, due to the similarity in the energy and capacity services offered by the two solar technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Estimating the Value of Improved Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption Forecasts for Utility Resource Planning

Misforecasting the adoption of customer-owned distributed photovoltaics (DPV) can have operational and financial implications for utilities - forecasting capabilities can be improved, but generally at a cost. This paper informs this decision-space by quantifying the costs of misforecasting across a wide range of DPV growth rates and misforecast severities. Using a simplified probabilistic method presented within, an analyst can make a first-order estimate of the financial benefit of improving a utility's forecasting capabilities, and thus be better informed about whether to make such an investment. For example, we show that a utility with 10 TWh per year of retail electric sales who initially estimates that the increase in DPV's contribution to total generation could range from 2 to 7.5 percent over the next 15 years could expect total present-value savings of approximately 4 million dollars if they could keep the severity of successive five-year misforecasts within plus or minus 25 percent. We also have more general discussions about how misforecasting DPV impacts the buildout and operation of the bulk power system - for example, we observed that misforecasting DPV most strongly influenced the amount of utility-scale PV that gets built, due to the similarity in the energy and capacity services offered by the two solar technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

On the cosmological evolution of long gamma-ray burst properties

ABSTRACT We examine the relationship between a number of long gamma-ray burst (lGRB) properties (isotropic emitted energy, luminosity, intrinsic duration, jet opening angle) and redshift. We find that even when accounting for conservative detector flux limits, there appears to be a significant correlation between isotropic equivalent energy and redshift, suggesting cosmological evolution of the lGRB progenitor. Analysing a sub-sample of lGRBs with jet opening angle estimates, we find the beaming-corrected lGRB emitted energy does not correlate with redshift, but jet opening angle does. Additionally, we find a statistically significant anticorrelation between the intrinsic prompt duration and redshift, even when accounting for potential selection effects. We also find that, for a given redshift, isotropic energy is positively correlated with intrinsic prompt duration. None of these GRB properties appear to be correlated with galactic offset. From our selection-effect-corrected redshift distribution, we estimate a co-moving rate density for lGRBs, and compare this to the global cosmic star formation rate (SFR). We find the lGRB rate mildly exceeds the global star formation rate between a redshift of 3 and 5, and declines rapidly at redshifts above this (although we cannot constrain the lGRB rate above a redshift of about 6 due to sample incompleteness). We find the lGRB rate diverges significantly from the SFR at lower redshifts. We discuss both the correlations and lGRB rate density in terms of various lGRB progenitor models and their apparent preference for low-metallicity environments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Long- and short-term temporal variability in cloud condensation nuclei spectra over a wide supersaturation range in the Southern Great Plains site

Abstract. When aerosol particles seed the formation of liquid water droplets in the atmosphere, they are called cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Different aerosols will act as CCN under different degrees of water supersaturation (relative humidity above 100 %), depending on their size and composition. In this work, we build and analyze a best-estimate CCN spectrum product, tabulated at ∼ 45 min resolution, generated using high quality data from seven independent instruments at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains site. The data product spans a large supersaturation range, from 0.0001 % to ∼ 30 %, and time period of 5 years, from 2009–2013, and is available on the ARM data archive. We leverage this added statistical power to examine relationships that are unclear in smaller datasets. Our analysis is performed in three main areas. First, probability distributions of many aerosol and CCN metrics are found to exhibit skewed log-normal distribution shapes. Second, clustering analyses of CCN spectra reveal that the primary drivers of CCN differences are aerosol number size distributions, rather than hygroscopicity or composition, especially at supersaturations above 0.2 %, while also allowing for a simplified understanding of seasonal and diurnal variations in CCN behavior. The predictive ability of using limited hygroscopicity data with accurate number size distributions to estimate CCN spectra is investigated, and the uncertainties of this approach are estimated. Third, the dynamics of CCN spectral clusters and concentrations are examined with cross-correlation and autocorrelation analyses. We find that CCN concentrations change rapidly on the timescale of 1–3 h, with some conservation beyond that which is greatest for the lower supersaturation region of the spectrum.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Zero-Net-Rate Pumping Tests

Accurately estimating the distribution of aquifer properties is key to understanding contaminant movement in the subsurface. The distribution of aquifer properties is typically addressed using slug or constant-rate well tests, and the pros and cons of these tests are well known. Slug tests are appealing because they avoid removing contaminated water, but their results are affected by well skin and the small volume of displaced water limits the volume of aquifer that can be evaluated. Constant-rate well tests have the disadvantage of requiring disposal of potentially contaminated water, but they can generate properties that are more representative than slug tests, and they can be used to estimate well efficiency and storativity, which are difficult to characterize using slug tests. Periodic pumping tests are appealing because they have many of the advantages and few of the disadvantages of slug and constant-rate well tests. Periodic pumping tests involve cycling the pumping rate with a regular period and measuring the resulting response in monitoring wells. Some of these tests involve imposing a periodic rate on a constant mean rate. However, other tests involve moving water out and back into the well at rates that are balanced so the net rate after each period is zero. Some zero-net-rate (ZNR) well tests use rates that follow a sinusoidal pattern, whereas others use a square wave pattern that switches between a constant rate of pumping and a constant rate of injection to achieve a zero-net rate. ZNR well tests appear to be a useful compromise between slug and constant rate tests, but methods for conducting and analyzing the results from these tests have received limited evaluation. Periodic pumping tests are typically evaluated through recorded pressure responses to a disturbance source. Recent work has demonstrated that the strain field in the vadose zone shows a response to disturbances in the underlying aquifer. Various instrument designs are available that can record vertical and horizontal strain to very precise resolutions (10-9 ε). Measuring the strain in the vadose zone can present lower costs than measuring pressure in a monitoring well, so using strain could improve the resolution of ZNR tests, as well as make these tests potentially cheaper. A ZNR periodic pumping system was constructed and used to perform tests in the Clemson, South Carolina area. The system was designed to pump and inject with a periodic square-wave, so pumping occurs at a constant rate for half the period and is followed by injection at the same rate for half the period resulting in no net gain or loss of water from the aquifer. The system is designed to generate flow rates from 1 to 3.5 gallons per minute (gpm) with a capacity of 875-gallon per half period. Pressure and strain monitoring points are located in the vicinity of the pumping well. A series of 10 ZNR periodic pumping tests were conducted at the field site, with periods ranging from 2 to 540 minutes. Pressure data were collected and recorded in four monitoring wells in various locations around the pumping well. In addition, vertical and horizontal strain and tilt data were recorded in various locations around the pumping well. Traditional aquifer tests, including slug tests and constant-rate pumping tests were conducted at the field site to provide a baseline of aquifer parameter estimates that are compared the results of ZNR tests. Pressure data measured at monitoring wells during ZNR tests were analyzed utilizing an analytical solution (Streltsova, 1988) that assumes a confined aquifer and estimates hydraulic diffusivity and transmissivity using the time lag and amplitude of the pressure signal. The storativity can be separated out from the hydraulic diffusivity using the transmissivity estimate. The time-lag and amplitude of the pressure signals were estimated using a Fourier transform. The time-lag of the primary period of the pressure increases as a linear function of distance from the pumping well, and it increases as the square root of the period of the ZNR test over a range of periods spanning two orders of magnitudes. The first few harmonics follow similar trends, but the higher frequency harmonics diverge from this trend. Strain and tilt data from various instruments in the vadose and saturated zones are periodic during ZNR tests. The time lags of the strain components increase roughly linearly with distance from the well. Many of the time lags of the strain data from the vadose zone are similar to the time lags observed in the pressure data from a similar distance and pumping period. Theoretical experiments were performed to understand how pressure and strain responds to ZNR periodic pumping. The time-lags of the simulated pressure responses match the field data trends. The results were used to validate the Streltsova (1988) solution for periodic pumping to estimate hydraulic diffusivity. Hydraulic diffusivity was estimated to be 1.8 x 10-2 m2s-1 < Dh < 9.0 x 10-2 m2s-1 using pressure data from all the wells during ZNR tests. Transmissivity was estimated to be 0.8 x 10-4 m2s-1 < T < 4.3 x 10-4 m2s-1. Assuming Storativity = T/Dh gives 1.1 x 10-3 < S < 19 x10-3. Transmissivity is used to estimate the hydraulic conductivity, K, by dividing by the assumed aquifer thickness. Two constant-rate pumping tests were conducted and analyzed using two conceptual models: The Hantush (1961) solution was used to analyze data assuming confined conditions and the Neuman (1974) solution was used to analyze data assuming unconfined conditions. The Hantush (1961) solution estimated transmissivity to be 1.6 x 10-4 m2s-1 < T < 1.8 x 10-4 m2s-1 when using data from all the wells. Storativity was estimated to be 4.4 x 10-3 < S < 8.2 x 10-3. Assuming Dh = T/S gives 0.22 x 10-2 m2s-1 < Dh < 3.6 x 10-2 m2s-1. The Neuman (1974) solution estimated transmissivity to be 0.80 x 10-4 m2s-1 < T < 0.84 x 10-4 m2s-1. Total storativity (S + Sy) was estimated to be 22 x 10-3 < S < 110 x 10-3. Storativity excluding the Sy term was estimated to be 2.2 x 10-3 < S < 2.5 x 10-3. Assuming Dh = T/S gives 0.073 x 10-2 m2s-1 < S < 0.36 x 10-2 m2s-1. Two slug tests were performed on the pumping well, PW-2. The Bouwer and Rice (1976) solution for slug tests was used to analyze the data. This solution works for both confined and unconfined conditions, so both conceptual models were covered through the analysis. Hydraulic conductivity was estimated to be 1.95 x 10-6 ms-1 < K < 2.49 x 10-6 ms-1. Statistical comparison show generally no significant difference in the estimates of Dh, K, or S made using ZNR and conventional pumping tests.. However, the total storage estimated by the Neuman (1974) solution for unconfined settings is larger than that estimate using the Streltsove analysis applied to the ZNR tests. This is likely because the Neuman solution considers delayed yield from storage that the water table, whereas the Streltsova (1988) solution assumes confined conditions. The analysis also indicates that there is a statistically significant difference between parameters estimated with conventional slug tests and those measured with either constant-rate pumping tests or ZNR tests. Hydraulic diffusivity is estimated from the time-lag and the distance from the well. The time-lags of the strain data from the vadose zone are similar to the lags of the pressure data from a similar distance. This indicates that hydraulic diffusivities estimated from the strain data measured in the vadose zone would be similar to the estimates from the pressure data measured in the aquifer. There appear to be sign reversals in some of the strain data that were corrected to estimate the time lag. The dissolved oxygen (CO) concentration was measured during several ZNR tests to evaluate the feasibility of using the procedure to increase contaminant degradation kinetics that are related to DO. The results indicate that DO can be increased during the cycling of ZNR tests in some cases.

Smith-Jones, Austin↗

Estimating the Value of Improved Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption Forecasts for Utility Resource Planning

Misforecasting the adoption of customer-owned distributed photovoltaics (DPV) can have operational and financial implications for utilities; forecasting capabilities can be improved, but generally at a cost. This paper informs this decision-space by using a suite of models to explore the capacity expansion and operation of the Western Interconnection over a 15-year period across a wide range of DPV growth rates and misforecast severities. The system costs under a misforecast are compared against the costs under a perfect forecast, to quantify the costs of misforecasting. Using a simplified probabilistic method applied to these modeling results, an analyst can make a first-order estimate of the financial benefit of improving a utility’s forecasting capabilities, and thus be better informed about whether to make such an investment. For example, under our base assumptions, a utility with 10 TWh per year of retail electric sales who initially estimates that DPV growth could range from 2% to 7.5% of total generation over the next 15 years could expect total present-value savings of approximately $4 million if they could reduce the severity of misforecasting to within ±25%. Utility resource planners can compare those savings against the costs needed to achieve that level of precision, to guide their decision on whether to make an investment in tools or resources.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

OPERATIONAL TOPOLOGY ESTIMATION OF THREE PHASE UNBALANCED POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS WITH OUTAGES

Distribution grid, in general, is constructionally loopy but a radially operated network. Opening and closing of suitable tie-switches allows transition from one radial topology to another. Tie-switches ensure reliability and provide restoration paths when faults (outages) occur. The estimation of the system's current operational topology is a precursor to implementing any optimal control actions (during normal operation) or restorative actions (during outage condition). The existing literature in topology detection suffers with several limitations including: (1) computationally intensive nonlinear formulations that are not scalable for large distribution systems, (2) methods requiring exhaustive search for the correct topology by enumerating the complete topological search space, and (3) approaches requiring large volumes of time-series measurements and are not applicable for estimating continuously changing operational topology. Furthermore, the existing literature on distribution grid topology estimation cannot be extended to estimate the operational topology during outage conditions. For operational topology estimation during outages, our objective is to estimate both energized radial feeder and the outaged sections. Starting with a radial topology, these methods identify outaged feeder sections and hence, are inapplicable when the current radial operational topology is not known. In this work, we present a mathematical programming approach to estimate the operational topology of a three-phase unbalanced power distribution system under both outage and normal operating conditions. The aforementioned limitations of existing literature were countered by modeling the problem as a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problem which minimizes the errors in available measurements while satisfying the power flow and structural constraints of the system. Specically, a minimum weighted least absolute value estimator is proposed that uses the instantaneous line flow measurements, historical/ forecasted load data, and ping measurements from a limited set of smart meters and solves an MILP to identify the operational topology based on a linearized three-phase unbalanced power flow model. The proposed approach is tested on IEEE 123-bus feeder and 1069 bus multi-feeder test system and the numerical results prove the applicability of the proposed method to large three phase unbalanced grids with high errors in measurements. It is observed that the approach performs well even at high percentages of measurement errors.

GANDLURU NAGA, ANANDINI↗

AGGREGATE: dAta-driven modelinG preservinG contRollable dEr for outaGe mAnagemenT and rEsiliency (Report for Task 10: Controllability and Observability Analysis (Deliverable D7))

It is common to have less than full observability for distribution systems, as the number of available measurements are not sufficient. Considering increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs), it is imperative to understand and control distribution systems better. Developed for the transmission system, the original numerical observability analysis methods were based on the canonical DC Power Flow (DC-PF) model. However, the DC-PF model is ill-suited for the distribution system in which line resistance to reactance (R/X) ratios can be near unity. In this report, we apply the non-iterative Observability Test (OT) and Observable Island Identification Procedure (OIIP) in to the gain matrix from the distribution system state estimator. Because sensors are few in distribution systems, pseudo-measurements based on historical load profiles and zero-injection virtual measurements are often employed to ensure observability. However, both the observability and the accuracy of the state estimates are uncertain when historical data is limited/unavailable.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Learning concave-convex profiles of data transport over dedicated connections

Dedicated data transport infrastructures are increasingly being deployed to support distributed big-data and high-performance computing scenarios. These infrastructures employ data transfer nodes that use sophisticated software stacks to support network transport among sites, which often house distributed file and storage systems. Throughput measurements collected over such infrastructures for a range of round trip times (RTTs) reflect the underlying complex end-to-end connections, and have revealed dichotomous throughput profiles as functions of RTT. In particular, concave regions of throughput profiles at lower RTTs indicate near-optimal performance, and convex regions at higher RTTs indicate bottlenecks due to factors such as buffer or credit limits. We present a machine learning method that explicitly infers these concave and convex regions and transitions between them using sigmoid functions. We also provide distribution-free confidence estimates for the generalization error of these concave-convex profile estimates. Throughput profiles for data transfers over 10 Gbps connections with 0–366 ms RTT provide important performance insights, including the near optimality of transfers performed with the XDD tool between XFS filesystems, and the performance limits of wide-area Lustre extensions using LNet routers. A direct application of generic machine learning packages does not adequately highlight these critical performance regions or provide as precise confidence estimates.

Rao, Nageswara↗

CO 2 storage site characterization using ensemble-based approaches with deep generative models

Estimating spatially distributed properties such as permeability from available sparse measurements is a great challenge in efficient subsurface CO 2 storage operations. In this paper, a deep generative model that can accurately capture complex subsurface structure is tested with an ensemble-based inversion method for accurate and accelerated characterization of CO 2 storage sites. We chose Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) for its realistic reservoir property representation and Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) for its robust data fitting and uncertainty quantification capability. WGAN-GP are trained to generate high-dimensional permeability fields from a low-dimensional latent space and ES-MDA then updates the latent variables by assimilating available measurements. Several subsurface site characterization examples including Gaussian, channelized, and fractured reservoirs are used to evaluate the accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed method and the main features of the unknown permeability fields are characterized accurately with reliable uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, the estimation performance is compared with a widely-used variational, i.e., optimization-based, inversion approach, and the proposed approach outperforms the variational inversion method in several benchmark cases. We explain such superior performance by visualizing the objective function in the latent space: because of nonlinear and aggressive dimension reduction via generative modeling, the objective function surface becomes extremely complex while the ensemble approximation can smooth out the multi-modal surface during the minimization. This suggests that the ensemble-based approach works well over the variational approach when combined with deep generative models at the cost of forward model runs unless convergence-ensuring modifications are implemented in the variational inversion.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Pixelated CZT Technology for the Detection, Identification, and Localization of Gamma-Ray Sources - 18311

Radioactive waste-management applications require good measurements to qualitatively and quantitatively characterize waste materials. Often these measurements must be done in situ, and the user wishes to learn something of the isotopic and spatial distribution of the source. Therefore, there is a need for a portable instrument that can map radioactive contamination and quantify sources. This presentation introduces several instruments that have been applied to this task, along with example measurements in relevant applications. All instruments are based on 3D-position-sensitive CdZnTe (CZT) detectors. This technology routinely achieves better than 1.1% FWHM energy resolution at 662 keV and operates at room temperature with a startup time under 2 minutes. All are packaged in portable enclosures with WiFi and Bluetooth capabilities for wireless communication. These capabilities allow the technology to be used in more advanced measurements in the field. A unique capability of these detectors is the ability to image the spatial distribution of gamma rays from a single stationary measurement. The first product, Polaris-H, has been in use at commercial nuclear power plants since 2013. The system, currently used at over 50% of the US nuclear-power fleet, integrates a 3D-position-sensitive CZT detector, associated readout electronics, an embedded computer, a battery with over 7-hour life, an optical camera, and a laser range finder in a portable water-proof enclosure. The system connects wirelessly to a tablet which displays a gamma-ray spectrum and isotope-specific images of the gamma-ray distribution in all directions in real time. The CZT detectors have a dynamic range from 50 keV up to 3 MeV. Coded aperture or pinhole imaging is used for energies below 250 keV, and Compton imaging is used for energies above 250 keV. List-mode data is saved to an external USB memory stick to enable more advanced analysis, including isotopic activity analysis, via H3D's post-processing software. Additional systems based on the same architecture have been developed to optimize the technology for other applications. These include Polaris-H Quad, which provides over 3 times the sensitivity for applications involving weaker sources, and Polaris-H Shield, which uses a collimator to provide images and isotope information over a narrower field of view in order to measure weaker sources in the presence of stronger sources of the same isotope. H3D has also developed custom systems that have been mounted on robots and drones that enable remote operation of the technology. Results from the measurements collected at commercial nuclear power plants and other applicable sites will be presented to show how these instruments can be used to detect, identify, and localize gamma-ray sources. Advanced analysis techniques to show the accurate quantification of the gamma-ray source will also be presented. Applications range from characterizing simple objects, to locating hottest points, estimating contamination distributions on an isotope-by-isotope basis, and differentiating scatter and direct emissions. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Distributed Frequency Divider for Power System Bus Frequency Online Estimation Considering Virtual Inertia From DFIGs

In this work, a distributed frequency divider is proposed to estimate power system bus frequency with a limited number of PMUs while considering the inertial contributions from double-fed induction generators (DFIGs). The key idea is to reformulate the original frequency divider by modeling the contributions of DFIGs with inertia emulation and external regional power system through Thevenin equivalents. The distributed frequency divider is general and able to estimate local bus frequencies in a distributed manner. Besides, only the knowledge of the rotor speeds of synchronous generator, boundary bus frequencies and terminal bus frequencies of DFIGs as well as the admittance matrix are required to estimate the frequencies at all buses. This is drastically different from existing approaches that require system observability by PMUs to monitor all bus frequencies. Numerical results carried out on the IEEE 39-bus and modified 118-bus power systems with DFIGs demonstrate and effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Estimation Based Protection Relay-Application to Distribution System with High DER Penetration

This document presents the application of the estimation based protection (EBP) relay on the distribution system. The study aims to provide a solution to the IEEE 1547-2018 protection issues. The EBP relay has been developed for transmission and generation systems and is equally applied to distribution systems. The performance of the EBP relay is evaluated for distribution system with high penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗