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LANL Contributions to the B61 LIfe Extension Program

The Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has a long, proud heritage in science and innovation that extends 70 years. Although the Laboratory’s primary responsibility is assuring the safety and reliability of the nation’s nuclear deterrent, Laboratory staff work on a broad range of advanced technologies to provide the best, most effective scientific and engineering solutions to the nation’s critical security challenges. The world is rapidly changing, but this essential responsibility remains the LANL’s core mission. LANL is the Design Laboratory for the nuclear explosive package of the B61 Air Force bomb. The B61-12 Life Extension Program (LEP) activities at LANL will increase the lifetime of the bomb and provide safety and security options to meet security environments both today and in the future. The B61’s multiple-platform functionality, unique safety features, and large number of components make the B61-12 LEP one of the most complex LEPs ever attempted. Over 230 LANL scientists, engineers, technicians, and support personnel from across the Laboratory are bringing decades of interdisciplinary knowledge, technical expertise, and leading-edge capabilities to LANL’s work on the LEP.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

SW21 Summary Report

Los Alamos and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories hosted the tenth annual Strategic Weapons in the 21st Century Conference (SW21) on 21 January 2016 to reinforce the national commitment to leadership and institutional excellence for nuclear deterrence. The event has been successful over the years in drawing together a diverse, high-level group of policy makers and experts from multiple disciplines to engage in informed dialogue on topics related to strategic weapons in national and international security.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Spent fuel measurements. passive neutron albedo reactivity (PNAR) and photon signatures

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) safeguards technical objective is the timely detection of a diversion of a significant quantity of nuclear material from peaceful activities to the manufacture of nuclear weapons or of other nuclear explosive devices or for purposes unknown, and deterrence of such diversion by the risk of early detection. An important IAEA task towards meeting this objective is the ability to accurately and reliably measure spent nuclear fuel (SNF) to verify reactor operating parameters and verify that the fuel has not been removed from reactors or SNF storage facilities. This dissertation analyzes a method to improve the state-of-the-art of nuclear material safeguards measurements using two combined measurement techniques: passive neutron albedo reactivity (PNAR) and passive spectral photon measurements.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

LANL Multiyear Strategy Performance Improvement (MYSPI), Fiscal Years 2017–2021

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) protects the nation and the world using innovative science, technology, and engineering through an integrated approach that harnesses the strength of our people, capabilities, and operations. The Laboratory’s Strategic Plan and Purpose statement provide the framework for scientific excellence and operational excellence now and in the future. Our Strategic Plan and Purpose help position Los Alamos for continuing mission success that ensures the safety, security, and effectiveness of the nation’s deterrent; protects the nation from nuclear and emerging threats through our larger global security missions; provides energy security to the nation; and ensures that the nation’s scientific reputation and capabilities remain robust enough to assure our allies and deter our adversaries. Moreover, we use these principles and guidance to ensure that Los Alamos is successful in attracting, recruiting, and retaining the next generation of world-class talent, while creating an efficient, environmentally responsible workplace that provides our employees with access to modern scientific tools and resources. Using this guidance and its underlying principles, we are continuing to restore credibility and operational effectiveness to the Laboratory, deliver mission success and continuing scientific excellence, and protect our employees and the nation’s secrets.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

The Concept of Reliability and Trustworthiness

The objective of this presentation is to obtain an appreciation and understanding of human behavior as it relates to critical jobs; to understand the basics of the Department of Energy's Human Reliability Program; to understand the importance of monitoring and deterrence; and to understand the effects of "right-sized" reaction.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

After Action Report - CUP-2 Comparative Sample Analysis Meeting - Kazakhstan September 2016

Representatives from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Smuggling Detection and Deterrence (NSDD) visited the Kazakhstan Institute of Nuclear Physics (INP) to discuss the results and conclusions of a joint sample analysis (CUP-2 uranium ore concentrate) between LLNL, INP and the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) (Fig. 1). The U.S. delegation also met with the newly-appointed Director-General of the INP (S. Sakhiyev) who expressed his continued support for this collaboration. On the last day of the visit, the delegation toured the new medical isotope production facilities (which is expected to begin operation in a few months), as well as INP’s Nuclear Security Training Center (co-funded by DOE, the Defense Threat Reduction Initiative (DTRA) and the Kazakhstan government). Construction of the Nuclear Security Training Center is expected to be completed by the end of 2016.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Strengthening LLNL Missions through Laboratory Directed Research and Development in High Performance Computing

High performance computing (HPC) has been a defining strength of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) since its founding. Livermore scientists have designed and used some of the world’s most powerful computers to drive breakthroughs in nearly every mission area. Today, the Laboratory is recognized as a world leader in the application of HPC to complex science, technology, and engineering challenges. Most importantly, HPC has been integral to the National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA’s) Stockpile Stewardship Program—designed to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of our nuclear deterrent without nuclear testing. A critical factor behind Lawrence Livermore’s preeminence in HPC is the ongoing investments made by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program in cutting-edge concepts to enable efficient utilization of these powerful machines. Congress established the LDRD Program in 1991 to maintain the technical vitality of the Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories. Since then, LDRD has been, and continues to be, an essential tool for exploring anticipated needs that lie beyond the planning horizon of our programs and for attracting the next generation of talented visionaries. Through LDRD, Livermore researchers can examine future challenges, propose and explore innovative solutions, and deliver creative approaches to support our missions. The present scientific and technical strengths of the Laboratory are, in large part, a product of past LDRD investments in HPC. Here, we provide seven examples of LDRD projects from the past decade that have played a critical role in building LLNL’s HPC, computer science, mathematics, and data science research capabilities, and describe how they have impacted LLNL’s mission.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Price-Concentration Relationship in Early Residential Solar Third-Party Markets

The market for residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States has experienced tremendous growth over the past decade, with installed capacity more than doubling between 2014 and 2016 alone (SEIA, 2016). As the residential market continues to grow, it prompts new questions about the nature of competition between solar installers and how this competition, or lack thereof, affects the prices consumers are paying. It is often assumed that more competition leads to lower prices, but this is not universally true. For example, some studies have shown that factors such as brand loyalty could lead to a negative relationship between concentration and price in imperfectly competitive markets (Borenstein, 1985; Holmes, 1989). As such, the relationship between prices and market concentration is an open empirical question since theory could predict either a positive or negative relationship. Determining a relationship between prices and market concentration is challenging for several reasons. Most significantly, prices and market structure are simultaneously determined by each other -- the amount of competition a seller faces influences the price they can command, and prices determine a seller's market share. Previous studies have examined recent PV pricing trends over time and between markets (Davidson et al., 2015a; Davidson and Margolis 2015b; Nemet et al., 2016; Gillingham et al., 2014; Barbose and Darghouth 2015). While these studies of solar PV pricing are able to determine correlations between prices and market factors, they have not satisfactorily proven causation. Thus, to the best of our knowledge, there is little work to date that focuses on identifying the causal relationship between market structure and the prices paid by consumers. We use a unique dataset on third-party owned contract terms for the residential solar PV market in the San Diego Gas and Electricity service territory to better understand this relationship. Surprisingly, we find that firms charged higher prices in more competitive markets in our sample. The finding is robust across multiple definitions of firm concentration. There are at least two potential explanations for our findings. First, firms could be conducting entry deterrence strategies. It is possible that firms are acting in a non-competitive way and setting prices lower than they would be otherwise. Setting low prices that are below potential competitors' marginal costs could deter entrants and ensure a larger market share. Second, there could be a group of dominant firms (with a competitive fringe), and the dominant firms may occasionally engage in price wars. If this is true, prices should be lower in more concentrated markets during the price wars (Salinger, 1990). As the rooftop PV market continues to grow, market structure will remain a relevant policy issue in consideration of the potential for rooftop solar to contribute to de-carbonization efforts or other policy objectives. This paper adds to a growing emphasis on understanding supply-side factors in scaling up solar markets in the residential sector. Generally, solar markets have become more competitive over the same time period that solar technology costs decreased. While solar system hard costs have come down, our research suggests that total costs are more nuanced in early solar system TPO markets. Policymakers should consider these findings when designing markets, and have the data needed to make informed decisions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Experimental Physical Sciences Vistas Performance through Science Winter 2017

This issue of Experimental Physical Sciences Vistas focuses on the integrated science that plays a critical role in Los Alamos National Laboratory’s support of the nation’s nuclear deterrent. I hope you will enjoy reading about these accomplishments, opportunities, and challenges.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

LANL Multiyear Strategy Performance Improvement (MYSPI), Fiscal Years 2018-2022

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) protects the nation and the world using innovative science, technology, and engineering through an integrated approach that harnesses the strength of our people, capabilities, and operations. The Laboratory’s Strategic Plan and Purpose statement provide the framework for scientific excellence and operational excellence now and in the future. Our Strategic Plan and Purpose help position Los Alamos for continuing mission success that ensures the safety, security, and effectiveness of the nation’s deterrent; protects the nation from nuclear and emerging threats through our larger global security missions; provides energy security to the nation; and ensures that the nation’s scientific reputation and capabilities remain robust enough to assure our allies and deter our adversaries. Moreover, we use these principles and guidance to ensure that Los Alamos is successful in attracting, recruiting, and retaining the next generation of excellent talent, while creating an efficient, environmentally responsible workplace that provides our employees with access to modern scientific tools and resources. Using this guidance and its underlying principles, we are continuing to restore credibility and operational effectiveness to the Laboratory, deliver mission success and continuing scientific excellence, and protect our employees and the nation’s secrets.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Space and the Third Offset Symposium - Summary Report

The Third Offset Workshop explored the nature of the challenges and opportunities facing the United States as it is increasingly forced to integrate space into defense strategy as well as deterrence and strategic stability frameworks. Participants broadly agreed that Washington’s deep ties to allies and partners, as well as its history of leveraging an innovative U.S private sector, will be enduring competitive advantages against potential rivals into the foreseeable future. Yet panelists also highlighted key challenges from Russia and China’s rapid integration of space capabilities into conventional and nuclear warfighting, the pronounced growth in Chinese and Russian counterspace capabilities, and tensions in the U.S.-Russia relationship.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

The Fact of the Matter

For more than 20 years the science and engineering capabilities of the nation’s Stockpile Stewardship Program have allowed the United States to sustain a safe, secure, and effective nuclear deterrent. Most of the problems identifi ed within the nuclear stockpile are related to its aging materials. MaRIE will advance this record of excellence in addressing such materials problems.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

The SURE House (Solar Decathlon 2015)

Coastal towns and cities across the Northeastern US, with their high population density, aged utility infrastructure, and unique geography, are increasingly vulnerable to climate change related storm events. In October 2012 superstorm Sandy highlighted the fragility of our current coastal building types and made clear the need for a new model of design and construction which works to understand and mitigate these weaknesses. Dramatic changes in public policy, championed by both The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) are driving the rebuilding of these shore communities, often resulting in costly renovations, un-sustainable neighborhood configurations and in direct conflict with concurrent government policies such as The American with Disabilities Act (ADA). The SURE HOUSE demonstrates a series of new design solutions to these conflicting public policies and environmental imperatives. At Stevens Institute of Technology, the 2015 Solar Decathlon started with the challenge: Can we design a home for coastal New Jersey that dramatically reduces its energy use while protecting itself from the realities of a changing, more extreme climate? The SURE HOUSE merges the iconic 20th century shore home with 21st century building science. Utilizing innovative renewable energy technologies, a ‘Passive House’ level building envelope, and rugged glass-fiber-composite materials to flood-proof the home, the SURE HOUSE is a high-performance, net-zero-energy home, armored against extreme weather, designed for the contemporary lifestyle of the Jersey Shore and other vulnerable coastal communities. SUSTAINABLE At Stevens, we recognize that energy use in the home and workplace is directly connected to the growing problem of climate change. Reducing our energy consumption by designing higher performing, compact homes that are both functional, comfortable and desirable is the first critical step towards a modern, sustainable architecture for New Jersey and beyond. This is what informed the architectural design of the house. Configured about a compact form, thickly insulated and air-sealed walls eliminate thermal bridging and minimize energy losses while advanced glazing brings in free solar heat during the winter months. As a result of these passive design strategies, the SURE HOUSE has a greatly reduced carbon footprint requiring 91% less energy than a typical New Jersey home. Photovoltaic (PV) arrays on both the rooftop and operable shutters easily provide energy in excess of the home’s modest demands. The Stevens team considers a truly sustainable home in the era of climate change, one that prioritizes low energy use, and integrates right-sized renewable generation to supply the home’s needs. Low consumption, low production. RESILIENT In October of 2012, Hurricane Sandy wreaked havoc along the east coast of the US. In New Jersey alone there was an estimated 29.4 billion dollars in damages, 346,000 homes affected, and almost two and a half million people left without power, in some cases for over 10 days. Recovery from this storm and associated flooding is ongoing to this day, as many New Jersey homeowners grapple with the large costs of rebuilding and struggle to adapt to complicated new home building regulations. Damage from this storm to Hoboken, the home of the Stevens Institute of Technology’s campus, and to the New Jersey shore was extensive and many students on the SURE HOUSE team were directly affected by this historic event. The Stevens design team recognizes that in a world of more frequent and stronger storms, the ability to absorb and adapt to change is more important than ever. Successfully weathering the next storm and its aftermath is one of the primary goals in the design of the SURE HOUSE prototype. The SURE HOUSE introduces unique ‘dry flood-proofing’ methods to residential construction. Innovative wall and floor flood-proofing, utilizing durable composite sheathing materials adapted from the boating industry, were developed by the student team to render the SURE House’s building envelope flood proof up to the FEMA AE 6/7 Zone (+ 6/7 feet of water above sea-level). Designed and fabricated utilizing glass-fiber composite materials, the custom storm shutter system serves to protect the large glazed openings of the home from both air-borne debris impact and water infiltration during a storm event while also providing deterrence from the vandalism that often occurs in the aftermath of a calamitous event. During extended power outages, a ‘resilient’ solar array is capable of supplying critical amounts of energy and hot water to the home, without the use of battery storage or grid infrastructure. PV Description AC GRID-TIED PV SYSTEM The SURE HOUSE solar system consists of two distinct arrays, the grid-tied rooftop array which produces AC Powerand the shutter-mounted array which converts DC power generated by the modules directly into usable heat for the domestic hot water (DHW). The roof-mounted AC grid-tied array is comprised of three strings, two 11 module strings connected to an SMA SB 5000TL-US-223 inverter and a single 10 module string equipped and an SMA SB 3000TL-US-22 central inverter. All modules for the rooftop AC array are LG MonoX 2804 watt solar panels, chosen for their durability and efficiency. Inverter sizing and string size are optimized to the electrical characteristics of the chosen PV modules and the desired energy production, see Appendix 5B. The SURE HOUSE is projected to produce 12,353 kWh per year to meet 6,157 kWh per year of estimated consumption. Solar modules for the two AC grid-tied sub arrays are mounted on the main roof surface of the SURE HOUSE with a 10 degree tilt angle using a partially-ballasted polyethylene roof mounting system made by Renusol, which is particularly suited to the corrosive salt air of a coastal environment. This method was chosen for its installation simplicity and to limit detrimental roof penetrations. The 10 degree tilt optimizes the energy generated per roof area at a lower price, see Appendix 5A, and ensures that there is minimal wind uplift. DC SOLAR ELECTRIC DOMESTIC HOT WATER The SURE HOUSE’s approach to sustainable and resilient domestic hot water (DHW) consists of a unique, custom engineered DC solar electric hot water system. Employing the use of Advanced Energy’s DC electric PV heater (DCPVH)5 to heat domestic water well beyond the draw temperature, the SURE HOUSE is able to obtain a remarkably high solar fraction of 75% or more. The custom modified 80 gallon Vaughn DHW tank acts as a large solar ‘battery’ that stores heat energy in the form of hot water at almost 150 degrees, harvesting energy when the sun is out for use later in the day or overnight. The system, which uses electricity rather than heated fluid, is distinct from traditional ‘solar thermal’ systems by eliminating the dangers and associated maintenance issues of fluid based systems. By forgoing the use of external fluid loops, overheated solar collectors and pipes are not an issue for the SURE HOUSE system which never needs any yearly or seasonal flushing. In weather conditions where the integrated DCPVH unit cannot produce enough hot water via solar energy alone, the Vaughn hot water tank comes factory made with an AC powered 2.6 COP heat pump and a AC heating coil that serve as back-up heating elements. The DCPVH is powered by a DC array consisting of 10 custom-made Solbian by PVilion 180 watt, monocrystalline, flexible solar modules6. The Solbian modules are directly mounted to the top half of the operable storm shutters on the south façade of the SURE HOUSE. The SURE HOUSE team worked closely with PVillion, a PV system designer specializing in flexible architectural photovoltaics, to design an adhesive system that works with the glass-fiber storm shutter surface in a reliable manner over an extended period. Because this system operates in DC-only mode and never connects to the municipal power grid, the system can continue to create hot water safely and effectively even during grid disruption events. This hot water, and the energy stored within it, could be used for a range of activities including washing and cooking to more elaborate hydronic heating systems as desired. See Appendix 6 for system engineering, sizing and modeling.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Using Modeling and Simulation to Complement Testing for Increased Understanding of Weapon Subassembly Response.

As part of Sandia’s nuclear deterrence mission, the B61-12 Life Extension Program (LEP) aims to modernize the aging weapon system. Modernization requires requalification and Sandia is using high performance computing to perform advanced computational simulations to better understand, evaluate, and verify weapon system performance in conjunction with limited physical testing. The Nose Bomb Subassembly (NBSA) of the B61-12 is responsible for producing a fuzing signal upon ground impact. The fuzing signal is dependent upon electromechanical impact sensors producing valid electrical fuzing signals at impact. Computer generated models were used to assess the timing between the impact sensor’s response to the deceleration of impact and damage to major components and system subassemblies. The modeling and simulation team worked alongside the physical test team to design a large-scale reverse ballistic test to not only assess system performance, but to also validate their computational models. The reverse ballistic test conducted at Sandia’s sled test facility sent a rocket sled with a representative target into a stationary B61-12 (NBSA) to characterize the nose crush and functional response of NBSA components. Data obtained from data recorders and high-speed photometrics were integrated with previously generated computer models in order to refine and validate the model’s ability to reliably simulate real-world effects. Large-scale tests are impractical to conduct for every single impact scenario. By creating reliable computer models, we can perform simulations that identify trends and produce estimates of outcomes over the entire range of required impact conditions. Sandia’s HPCs enable geometric resolution that was unachievable before, allowing for more fidelity and detail, and creating simulations that can provide insight to support evaluation of requirements and performance margins. As computing resources continue to improve, researchers at Sandia are hoping to improve these simulations so they provide increasingly credible analysis of the system response and performance over the full range of conditions.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Materials and Methods for Streamlined Laboratory Analysis of Environmental Samples, FY 2016 Report

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) relies upon laboratory analysis of environmental samples (typically referred to as “swipes”) collected during on-site inspections of safeguarded facilities to support the detection and deterrence of undeclared activities. Unfortunately, chemical processing and assay of the samples is slow and expensive. A rapid, effective, and simple extraction process and analysis method is needed to provide certified results with improved timeliness at reduced costs (principally in the form of reduced labor), while maintaining or improving sensitivity and efficacy. To address these safeguard needs the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) explored and demonstrated improved methods for environmental sample (ES) analysis. Improvements for both bulk and particle analysis were explored. To facilitate continuity and adoption, the new sampling materials and processing methods will be compatible with existing IAEA protocols for ES analysis. PNNL collaborated with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), which performed independent validation of the new bulk analysis methods and compared performance to traditional IAEA’s Network of Analytical Laboratories (NWAL) protocol. ORNL efforts are reported separately. This report describes PNNL’s FY 2016 progress, which was focused on analytical application supporting environmental monitoring of uranium enrichment plants and nuclear fuel processing. In the future the technology could be applied to other safeguard applications and analytes related to fuel manufacturing, reprocessing, etc. PNNL’s FY 2016 efforts were broken into two tasks and a summary of progress, accomplishments and highlights are provided below. Principal progress and accomplishments on Task 1, Optimize Materials and Methods for ICP-MS Environmental Sample Analysis, are listed below. • Completed initial procedure for rapid uranium extraction from ES swipes based upon carbonate-peroxide chemistry (delivered to ORNL for evaluation). • Explored improvements to carbonate-peroxide rapid uranium extraction chemistry. • Evaluated new sampling materials and methods (in collaboration with ORNL). • Demonstrated successful ES extractions from standard and novel swipes for a wide range uranium compounds of interest including UO 2 F 2 and UO 2 (NO 3 ) 2 , U 3 O 8 and uranium ore concentrate. • Completed initial discussions with commercial suppliers of PTFE swipe materials. • Submitted one manuscript for publication. Two additional drafts are being prepared. Principal progress and accomplishments on Task 2, Optimize Materials and Methods for Direct SIMS Environmental Sample Analysis, are listed below. • Designed a SIMS swipe sample holder that retrofits into existing equipment and provides simple, effective, and rapid mounting of ES samples for direct assay while enabling automation and laboratory integration. • Identified preferred conductive sampling materials with better performance characteristics. • Ran samples on the new PNNL NWAL equivalent Cameca 1280 SIMS system. • Obtained excellent agreement between isotopic ratios for certified materials and direct SIMS assay of very low levels of LEU and HEU UO 2 F 2 particles on carbon fiber sampling material. Sample activities range from 1 to 500 CPM (uranium mass on sample is dependent upon specific isotope ratio but is frequently in the subnanogram range). • Found that the presence of the UF molecular ions, as measured by SIMS, provides chemical information about the particle that is separate from the uranium isotopics and strongly suggests that those particles originated from an UF6 enrichment activity. • Submitted one manuscript for publication. Another manuscript is in preparation.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Increasing the Rate and Extent of Microbial Coal to Methane Conversion through Optimization of Microbial Activity, Thermodynamics, and Reactive Transport (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Currently, coal bed methane (CBM) wells have a limited lifetime since the rate of methane removal via the installed wells is much faster than the in situ methane production rates. Along with water issues created by large amounts of CBM production water, the short life span of CBM wells is a huge deterrent to the environmental and economic feasibility of CBM production. The process of biogenic methanogenesis can be enhanced via the stimulation of the associated microbial communities that can convert the organic fractions of coal to methane. This process is termed Microbially-Enhanced Coal Bed Methane (MECBM). However, the rates of methane production are still limited and long incubation times are necessary. We hypothesized that the elucidation of chemical and biological parameters that limited MECBM together with thermodynamic considerations would inform strategies to optimize the process under flow conditions. We incorporated microbiological, physicochemical, and engineering processes to develop a more sustainable CBM production scheme with native coal and native microorganisms. The proposed combination of microbial ecology and physiology as well as optimized engineering principles minimized key constraints that impact microbial coal conversion to methane under environmentally relevant conditions. The combined approach for bench-scale tests resulted in more effective and less environmentally burdensome coal-dependent methane production with the potential for H 2 O and CO 2 management.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Probability of Encounter Between Ports of Entry (PrEP): Aversion Force-Field “Early Validation” Report

To enhance detection and interdiction of radiological or nuclear material trafficking between primary POEs into the US, The Department of Homeland Security is faced with highly variable smuggling pathways through expansive geographic regions. The goal of this project is to test an approach to estimating likely pathways, as well as the probability of encounter along any given route. Our goal is to test the feasibility of a novel approach based on assessing the adversary’s perception of discovery likelihood over a broad geographic region, and using that result to estimate an “aversion force field” over the same region. The aversion force field is derived from analogies based on the physics of electric charges. Combining the aversion force with the intention of an adversary to reach their destination, generates a route that is consistent with both the adversary’s intention and their aversion to deterrent measures. Phase I is exploratory. Its goal to demonstrate the feasibility of the approach. This report describes progress in an essential part of the approach, specifically, to implement and couple two principle model components: (1) the Bayesian network model of an adversary’s perception of discovery likelihood; and (2) the physics-inspired aversion field model. The objective is to show that the field produced from the two components is plausible and consistent with the assumptions and the data. Figure 1 illustrates the workflow of this phase to the present stage. After collecting preliminary data and implementing each of the two model components, they were separately evaluated. Following this step, the output from the Bayesian network was input to the aversion field solver, and the combined results evaluated as reported here.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗