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At least 235 records · Page 13

Modeling uncertainty in requirements engineering decision support

One inherent characteristic of requrements engineering is a lack of certainty during this early phase of a project. Nevertheless, decisions about requirements must be made in spite of this uncertainty. Here we describe the context in which we are exploring this, and some initial work to support elicitation of uncertain requirements, and to deal with the combination of such information from multiple stakeholders.

risk analysis↗

Remote Sensing and Spatial Growth Modeling Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Directly aligned with the expansion of cities is urban sprawl. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Strategies that can be directly or indirectly implemented to help remediate air quality problems in cities and that can be accepted by political decision makers and the general public are now being explored to help bring down air pollutants and improve air quality. The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models, particularly the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to the meteorology component of the CMAQ model focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how ozone and air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the (CMAQ) modeling schemes. Use of these data have been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS 1km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the State Environmental Protection agency to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality. The coupled SGM and air quality modeling approach provides insight on what the impacts of Atlanta s growth will be on the local and regional environment and exists as a mechanism that can be used by policy makers to make rationale decisions on urban growth and sustainability for the metropolitan area in the future.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

Land use maps of the Tanana and Purcell Mountain areas, Alaska, based on Earth Resources Technology Satellite imagery

The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS imagery in photographic format was used to make land use maps of two areas of special interest to native corporations under terms of the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act. Land selections are to be made in these areas, and the maps should facilitate decisions because of their comprehensive presentation of resource distribution information. The ERTS images enabled mapping broadly-defined land use classes in large areas in a comparatively short time. Some aerial photography was used to identify colors and shades of gray on the various images. The 14 mapped land use categories are identified according to the classification system under development by the U.S. Geological Survey. These maps exemplify a series of about a dozen diverse Alaskan areas. The principal resource depicted is vegetation, and clearly shown are vegetation units of special importance, including stands possibly containing trees of commercial grade and stands constituting wildlife habitat.

Anderson, J. H.↗

DEVELOP Poster: Louisville Urban Development

Greenness and land surface temperature (LST) have been extensively correlated to urban public health. Chronic diseases such as diabetes, asthma, and cardiovascular illnesses have been linked to regions of high LST and areas lacking urban green spaces. One of our partners, the University of Louisville Envirome Institute, champions the importance of urban green spaces. Their research has pioneered efforts in increasing the area and accessibility of urban parks and greenspaces as a way to improve public health and combat environmental inequality. Louisville, Kentucky, is currently working to plant and manage urban trees. Our team used NASA Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) imagery to calculate the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in Louisville at the census tract level and automated the process for use in other cities. The New York University School of Medicine’s City Health Dashboard displays public health metrics across 500 US cities and will use our methods to complete the NDVI analysis for all of these locations plus an additional 293 cities they are adding to their dashboard in the near future. Our NDVI and LST calculations will allow cites across the US to make informed decisions about reducing environmental inequality by focusing on areas with low NDVI and high LST.

Urban Development↗

Risk Acceptance Personality Paradigm: How We View What We Don't Know We Don't Know

The purpose of integrated hazard analyses, probabilistic risk assessments, failure modes and effects analyses, fault trees and many other similar tools is to give managers of a program some idea of the risks associated with their program. All risk tools establish a set of undesired events and then try to evaluate the risk to the program by assessing the severity of the undesired event and the likelihood of that event occurring. Some tools provide qualitative results, some provide quantitative results and some do both. However, in the end the program manager and his/her team must decide which risks are acceptable and which are not. Even with a wide array of analysis tools available, risk acceptance is often a controversial and difficult decision making process. And yet, today's space exploration programs are moving toward more risk based design approaches. Thus, risk identification and good risk assessment is becoming even more vital to the engineering development process. This paper explores how known and unknown information influences risk-based decisions by looking at how the various parts of our personalities are affected by what they know and what they don't know. This paper then offers some criteria for consideration when making risk-based decisions.

Massie, Michael J.↗

Mangrove Carbon Stocks in Pongara National Park, Gabon

Mangroves are recognized for their valued ecosystem services to coastal areas, and the functional linkages between those services and ecosystem carbon stocks have been established. However, spatially explicit inventories are necessary to facilitate management and protection of mangroves, as well as providing a foundation for payment for ecosystem service programs such as REDD+. We conducted an inventory of carbon stocks in mangroves within Pongara National Park (PNP), Gabon using a stratified random sampling design based on forest canopy height derived from TanDEM-X remote sensing data. Ecosystem carbon pools, including aboveground and belowground biomass and necromass, and soil carbon to a depth of 2 m were assessed using measurements and samples from plots distributed among three canopy height classes within the park. There were two mangrove species within the inventory area in PNP, Rhizophora racemosa and R. harrisonii. R. harrisonii was predominant in the sparse, low-stature stands that dominated the west side of the park. In the east side of the park, both species occurred in tall-stature stands, with tree height often exceeding 30 m. Canopy height was an effective means to stratify the inventory area, as biomass was significantly different among the height classes. Despite those differences in aboveground biomass, the soil carbon density was not significantly different among height classes. Soils were the main component of the ecosystem carbon stock, accounting for over 84% of the total. The ecosystem carbon density ranged from 644 to 943 Mg C ha−1 among the three height classes. The ecosystem carbon stock within PNP is estimated to be 40,588 Gg C. The combination of pre-inventory information about stand conditions and their spatial distribution within the assessment area obtained from remote sensing data and a spatial decision support system were fundamental to implementing this relatively large-scale field inventory. This work exemplifies how mangrove carbon stocks can be quantified to augment national C reporting statistics, provide a baseline for projects involving monitoring, reporting and verification (i.e., MRV), and provide data on the forest composition and structure for sustainable management and conservation practices.

Carl C Trettin↗

Derivation of Failure Rates and Probability of Failures for the International Space Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment Study

National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) International Space Station (ISS) Program uses Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as part of its Continuous Risk Management Process. It is used as a decision and management support tool to not only quantify risk for specific conditions, but more importantly comparing different operational and management options to determine the lowest risk option and provide rationale for management decisions. This paper presents the derivation of the probability distributions used to quantify the failure rates and the probability of failures of the basic events employed in the PRA model of the ISS. The paper will show how a Bayesian approach was used with different sources of data including the actual ISS on orbit failures to enhance the confidence in results of the PRA. As time progresses and more meaningful data is gathered from on orbit failures, an increasingly accurate failure rate probability distribution for the basic events of the ISS PRA model can be obtained. The ISS PRA has been developed by mapping the ISS critical systems such as propulsion, thermal control, or power generation into event sequences diagrams and fault trees. The lowest level of indenture of the fault trees was the orbital replacement units (ORU). The ORU level was chosen consistently with the level of statistically meaningful data that could be obtained from the aerospace industry and from the experts in the field. For example, data was gathered for the solenoid valves present in the propulsion system of the ISS. However valves themselves are composed of parts and the individual failure of these parts was not accounted for in the PRA model. In other words the failure of a spring within a valve was considered a failure of the valve itself.

Vitali, Roberto↗

Lila: Optimal Dispatching in Probabilistic Temporal Networks using Monte Carlo Tree Search

Executing a Probabilistic Simple Temporal Network (PSTN) amounts at scheduling, i.e. \textit{dispatch}, a set of events under time uncertainty. This constitutes a NP-hard online optimization problem. The right execution time must be dynamically assigned to each event of the PSTN such that the temporal constraints are met, whereas activity durations are progressively observed as the execution unfolds. We propose a dispatching algorithm based on Monte Carlo Tree Search, called Lila, with the following characteristics: (i) it is an anytime algorithm, both offline and online, proven asymptotically optimal; (ii) it returns the current probability of success, either before or at any moment during operations; (iii) it handles any possible continuous or discrete, even non-parametric, probability distributions, as well as inter-dependencies between random variables, exogenous and endogenous uncertainty; and (iv) can be easily extended to handle probabilistic external events, PSTNs with resources, PSTNs with cutoff times and precondition chains, etc. Lila is universal in the sense that it can handle any dispatching protocol, simply by specifying it to the algorithm. It has the unlimited flexibility offered by the simulation paradigm, whilst it asymptotically converges to optimal decisions and/or robustness approximations.

Chien, Steve A.↗

New York Ecological Forecasting: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Map Ash Distribution and Inform Emerald Ash Borer Control

Since their first sightings in the U.S. in 2002, emerald ash borer beetles (Agrilus planipennis; EAB) have killed millions of native ash (Fraxinus spp.) trees across 35 states. Infected ash stands frequently exhibit complete mortality, with the predicted result being the functional extinction of native ash in U.S. forests. In August of 2020, EAB was discovered in the 6.1-million-acre Adirondack Park. The team’s partners at the Adirondack Park Invasive Plant Program (APIPP) desired ash tree distribution and EAB susceptibility information to help improve EAB bio-control efficiency and apply the methodology to future invasive programs. To assist, the team mapped ash tree distribution using NASA Earth observations from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), along with hyperspectral imagery from the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS). Field data from the Monitoring and Managing Ash (MaMA) project, iMapInvasives and iNaturalist databases, and the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) provided ground truthing for mapping and modeling. Results indicate that for ash detection, the team’s Spectral Angle Mapping (SAM) hyperspectral classification is slightly more sensitive but less accurate than multispectral Random Forest (RF) classification, though neither method was above a ~20% detection rate. End products include maps of ash extent derived from both imagery types, a model forecasting future spread scenarios based on current EAB presence, and outreach materials. These products inform APIPP’s management decisions and facilitate public awareness of EAB’s threat to communities within the region.

Liam Megraw↗

Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners (Second Edition)

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks in complex technological systems for the purpose of cost-effectively improving their safety and performance. NASA's objective is to better understand and effectively manage risk, and thus more effectively ensure mission and programmatic success, and to achieve and maintain high safety standards at NASA. NASA intends to use risk assessment in its programs and projects to support optimal management decision making for the improvement of safety and program performance. In addition to using quantitative/probabilistic risk assessment to improve safety and enhance the safety decision process, NASA has incorporated quantitative risk assessment into its system safety assessment process, which until now has relied primarily on a qualitative representation of risk. Also, NASA has recently adopted the Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM) process [1-1] as a valuable addition to supplement existing deterministic and experience-based engineering methods and tools. Over the years, NASA has been a leader in most of the technologies it has employed in its programs. One would think that PRA should be no exception. In fact, it would be natural for NASA to be a leader in PRA because, as a technology pioneer, NASA uses risk assessment and management implicitly or explicitly on a daily basis. NASA has probabilistic safety requirements (thresholds and goals) for crew transportation system missions to the International Space Station (ISS) [1-2]. NASA intends to have probabilistic requirements for any new human spaceflight transportation system acquisition. Methods to perform risk and reliability assessment in the early 1960s originated in U.S. aerospace and missile programs. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is an example. It would have been a reasonable extrapolation to expect that NASA would also become the world leader in the application of PRA. That was, however, not to happen. Early in the Apollo program, estimates of the probability for a successful roundtrip human mission to the moon yielded disappointingly low (and suspect) values and NASA became discouraged from further performing quantitative risk analyses until some two decades later when the methods were more refined, rigorous, and repeatable. Instead, NASA decided to rely primarily on the Hazard Analysis (HA) and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) methods for system safety assessment.

Stamatelatos,Michael↗

Health Management Applications for International Space Station

Traditional mission and vehicle management involves teams of highly trained specialists monitoring vehicle status and crew activities, responding rapidly to any anomalies encountered during operations. These teams work from the Mission Control Center and have access to engineering support teams with specialized expertise in International Space Station (ISS) subsystems. Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) applications can significantly augment these capabilities by providing enhanced monitoring, prognostic and diagnostic tools for critical decision support and mission management. The Intelligent Systems Division of NASA Ames Research Center is developing many prototype applications using model-based reasoning, data mining and simulation, working with Mission Control through the ISHM Testbed and Prototypes Project. This paper will briefly describe information technology that supports current mission management practice, and will extend this to a vision for future mission control workflow incorporating new ISHM applications. It will describe ISHM applications currently under development at NASA and will define technical approaches for implementing our vision of future human exploration mission management incorporating artificial intelligence and distributed web service architectures using specific examples. Several prototypes are under development, each highlighting a different computational approach. The ISStrider application allows in-depth analysis of Caution and Warning (C&W) events by correlating real-time telemetry with the logical fault trees used to define off-nominal events. The application uses live telemetry data and the Livingstone diagnostic inference engine to display the specific parameters and fault trees that generated the C&W event, allowing a flight controller to identify the root cause of the event from thousands of possibilities by simply navigating animated fault tree models on their workstation. SimStation models the functional power flow for the ISS Electrical Power System and can predict power balance for nominal and off-nominal conditions. SimStation uses realtime telemetry data to keep detailed computational physics models synchronized with actual ISS power system state. In the event of failure, the application can then rapidly diagnose root cause, predict future resource levels and even correlate technical documents relevant to the specific failure. These advanced computational models will allow better insight and more precise control of ISS subsystems, increasing safety margins by speeding up anomaly resolution and reducing,engineering team effort and cost. This technology will make operating ISS more efficient and is directly applicable to next-generation exploration missions and Crew Exploration Vehicles.

Alena, Richard↗

Evaluating Combinations of Sentinel-2 Data and Machine-Learning Algorithms for Mangrove Mapping in West Africa

Creating a national baseline for natural resources, such as mangrove forests, and monitoring them regularly often requires a consistent and robust methodology. With freely available satellite data archives and cloud computing resources, it is now more accessible to conduct such large-scale monitoring and assessment. Yet, few studies examine the reproducibility of such mangrove monitoring frameworks, especially in terms of generating consistent spatial extent. Our objective was to evaluate a combination of image processing approaches to classify mangrove forests along the coast of Senegal and The Gambia. We used freely available global satellite data (Sentinel-2), and cloud computing platform (Google Earth Engine) to run two machine learning algorithms, random forest (RF), and classification and regression trees (CART). We calibrated and validated the algorithms using 800 reference points collected using high-resolution images. We further re-ran 10 iterations for each algorithm, utilizing unique subsets of the initial training data. While all iterations resulted in thematic mangrove maps with over 90% accuracy, the mangrove extent ranges between 827-2807 km2 for Senegal and 245-1271 km2 for The Gambia with one outlier for each country. We further report "Places of Agreement" (PoA) to identify areas where all iterations for both methods agree (506.6 km2 and 129.6 km2 for Senegal and The Gambia, respectively), thus have a high confidence in predicting mangrove extent. While we acknowledge the time- and cost-effectiveness of such methods for the landscape managers, we recommend utilizing them with utmost caution, as well as post-classification on-the-ground checks, especially for decision making.

Mondal, Pinki↗

Assessing Urban Heat in the Cincinnati and Covington Area to Inform Local Decision-Makers and Environmental Justice Initiatives

The Urban Heat Island effect is a phenomenon characterized by urban areas experiencing temperatures that are, on average, warmer than surrounding suburban and rural regions. Urban Heat Islands are fueled by expansive impervious surfaces, vehicle emissions, and insufficient urban green space. Densely populated urban centers like the Cincinnati, Ohio and Covington, Kentucky area can experience negative health impacts due to the Urban Heat Island. NASA DEVELOP partnered with Groundwork USA and Groundwork Ohio River Valley to combine environmental education and outreach with technical capacity building in NASA Earth observations. The DEVELOP team used Landsat 5 TM and ISS ECOSTRESS to calculate daytime and nighttime land surface temperature anomalies. The team found that the Cincinnati and Covington area was 8.32°F warmer during the day and 4.97°F warmer at night compared to non-urban areas. The team also ran the Natural Capital Project InVEST Urban Cooling Model to map a heat mitigation index for the study area. The heat mitigation index models the cooling capacity of each pixel and the effect of green spaces on the pixel’s ability to mitigate heat. Results show which communities are most vulnerable to impacts of increased urban heat. The team also assessed alternative tree canopy scenarios with the InVEST model to better understand the effectiveness of potential heat mitigation strategies. Increasing tree canopy cover by 25% in urbanized land cover types was found to reduce mean temperature across the study area by 0.87°F. Combining these results with work from Groundwork’s Climate Safe Neighborhoods program highlights the relationship between extreme heat and historical-race based housing practices in the region. Results provide partners at Groundwork with refined methodologies to support future education and outreach, as well as increase future capacity to NASA Earth observations.

Celeste Gambino↗

The ICESat-2 Mission: Land, Ocean, and Inland Water Data Products for Middle and Low Latitude Science and Applications

NASA’s Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat-2) is a polar orbiting mission, launched on September 15, 2018, with over two years of nearly continuous observations. The sole instrument onboard is the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS), a micropulse, high repetition rate, six-beam, 532 nm Lidar with photon-counting technology. Although designed primarily for detecting height changes in ice caps and sea ice in the high latitudes, it continuously observes all terrain in its track including middle and low latitude regions as well, during approximately 15 orbits per day. The official ICESat-2 products include not only cryosphere data but also global high resolution parameters associated with tree canopies, land surface, oceans, and over 1.5 million inland water bodies consisting of lakes, rivers and coastal waters. This presentation provides an overview and the status of the ICESat-2 mission including: i) a summary of the salient technological features and orbit design, ii) the official ICESat-2 science data products for ice, vegetation canopy, ocean sea level, and inland water including several examples in the middle and low latitudes, iii) a list of NASA sponsored software tools for globally browsing the two year archive and for processing both the raw data and the official ICESat-2 geophysical data products, and iv) avenues for interested users to connect with the ICESat-2 Applications Program for answering questions and assistance in possibly using ICESat-2 data in your particular science or application. The overall goal is to facilitate the use of ICESat-2 data not only for science investigations but also for improved decision support applications with societal benefit. Additional ICESat-2 information, documentation and data products are publicly available at https://nsidc.org/data/icesat-2

ICESat-2↗

Field Evaluation of the Baseline Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface Capabilities at Charlotte Douglas International Airport

NASA is currently developing a suite of decision support capabilities for integrated arrival, departure, and surface (IADS) operations in a metroplex environment. The effort is being made in three phases, under NASA's Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) sub-project, through a strong partnership with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), air carriers, airport, and general aviation community. The Phase 1 Baseline IADS capabilities provide enhanced operational efficiency and predictability of flight operations through data exchange and integration, tactical surface metering, and automated coordination of release time of controlled flights for overhead stream insertion. The users of the IADS system include the personnel at the Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) air traffic control tower, American Airlines ramp tower, CLT terminal radar approach control (TRACON), and Washington Center. This paper describes the Phase 1 Baseline IADS capabilities and field evaluation conducted at CLT from September 2017 for a year. From the analysis of operations data, it is estimated that 538,915 kilograms of fuel savings, and 1,659 metric tons of CO2 emission reduction were achieved during the period with a total of 944 hours of engine run time reduction. The amount of CO2 savings is estimated as equivalent to planting 42,560 urban trees. The results have also shown that the surface metering had no negative impact on on-time arrival performance of both outbound and inbound flights. The technology transfer of Phase 1 Baseline IADS capabilities has been made to the FAA and aviation industry, and the development of additional capabilities for the subsequent phases is underway.

Jung, Yoon C.↗

Spatial Growth Modeling and High Resolution Remote Sensing Data Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include business as usual and smart growth scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS lkm land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the Georgia Environmental Protection Division to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality. The coupled SGM and air quality modeling approach provides insight on what the impacts of Atlanta s growth will be on the local and regional environment and exists as a mechanism that can be used by policy makers to make rational decisions on urban growth and sustainability for the metropolitan area in the future.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

The Future of Integrated Performance Modeling in the Crew Health and Performance – Probabilistic Risk Assessment Project

The NASA engineering community utilizes event-driven and fault-tree probabilistic techniques to classify risks in the space environment by taking advantage of the inherent knowledge of complex spaceflight system design and testing to quantify failure risk. In harmonizing the risk of human space flight, answering the question of ‘How do we balance health, performance and resource risks with other engineering risks on long duration space missions?’ remains a deeply challenging and largely qualitative practice. The Human Research Program’s Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) was a significant step forward in efforts to robustly quantify the risk to crew health for exploration missions. However, there remains a significant gap in the ability to comprehensively assess and characterize risk across the disparate functionalities and capabilities which comprise the Crew Health and Performance (CHP) system. The Crew Health and Performance – Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CHP-PRA) project seeks to characterize CHP risks by expanding beyond the foundation established by its PRA predecessors like IMM and MEDPRAT, that simulate medical risk metrics like loss of crew life and evacuations. One of the new risk measures in the CHP-PRA system is embodied in our Performance Risk Model (PRisM). PRisM provides a novel way of assessing crew performance on mission tasks, using a generalized framework which relates back to NASA-STD-3001. This approach allows PRisM to capture and integrate data from a variety of different domains into a single, unified, reproducible representation of astronaut performance. In this presentation, we discuss the motivation for the CHP-PRA work and give a high level overview of the goals of the project, outline the forward work for PRisM, and discuss collaboration opportunities for the community who might explore if their domain knowledge and data could be represented, integrated, and quantified with these tools, whose outcomes are metrics useful for supporting operational mission planning and decision making.

Lauren McIntyre↗

ATD-2 Benefits Mechanism

NASA has been developing and demonstrating a suite of decision support capabilities for integrated arrival, departure, and surface (IADS) operations in a metroplex environment. The effort is being made in three phases, under NASA’s Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) sub-project, through a close partnership with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), air carriers, airport, and general aviation community. The Phase 1 Baseline IADS capabilities provide enhanced operational efficiency and predictability of flight operations through data exchange and integration, tactical surface metering, and automated coordination of release time of controlled flights for overhead stream insertion. The Phase 2 Fused IADS capabilities include the fusion of strategic and tactical surface metering, Atlanta Center airspace tactical scheduling, Electronic Flight Data (EFD) integration, Terminal Flight Data Manager (TFDM) Terminal Publication (TTP) prototype, and Mobile App for General Aviation (GA) community. In the Phase 2 field evaluation, strategic surface metering provides advance notice of metering and additional stability to the assigned gate holds. The users of the IADS system in Phases 1 and 2 include the personnel at Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) air traffic control tower, American Airlines ramp tower, CLT terminal radar approach control (TRACON), and Washington and Atlanta Center. This document describes the ATD-2 benefits mechanism used to assess the Phases 1 and 2 IADS capabilities and field evaluation conducted at CLT since September 2017. The ATD-2 benefits mechanism mainly consists of surface metering and overhead stream insertion. This document provides detailed calculation methods of major benefit metrics, such as fuel savings, gas emissions savings, and engine runtime reduction, which can be obtained through surface metering, gate hold of Approval Request (APREQ) flights prior to pushback, and the renegotiation of release time while taxiing. As of March 31, 2020, it is estimated that 5,075,981 pounds of fuel savings and 15,634,022 pounds of CO2 emission reduction have been achieved so far, with a reduction of 3,832 hours in total engine runtime. The amount of CO2 savings is estimated to be equivalent to planting 116,254 urban trees. The pre- and post-metering comparison results using FAA’s Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) data have also shown that the surface metering had no negative impact on the on-time arrival performance of both outbound and inbound flights at CLT.

ATD-2↗