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At least 235 records · Page 13

Neural Posterior Estimation for Cataloging Astronomical Images with Spatially Varying Backgrounds and Point Spread Functions

Neural posterior estimation (NPE), a type of amortized variational inference, is a computationally efficient means of constructing probabilistic catalogs of light sources from astronomical images. To date, NPE has not been used to perform inference in models with spatially varying covariates. However, ground-based astronomical images exhibit spatially varying sky backgrounds and point spread functions (PSFs), and accounting for this variation is essential for constructing accurate catalogs of imaged light sources. In this work, we introduce a novel NPE-based cataloging method that trains an inference network with semisynthetic astronomical images generated using PSFs and backgrounds sampled from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. In experiments with semisynthetic images, we evaluate the method on key cataloging tasks: light source detection, star/galaxy separation, and flux measurement. A “generalist” inference network—trained with diverse PSFs and backgrounds—performs as well as a “specialist” network even when both are evaluated on the specialist’s particular PSF/background combination. This result suggests that a single NPE network can generalize across spatial variations, eliminating the need for retraining on each observational condition.

astronomy image processing↗

Turbulence Structures in the Very Stable Boundary Layer Under the Influence of Wind Profile Distortion

Abstract In very stable boundary layers (VSBL), a “cocktail” of submeso motions routinely result in elevated mean wind speed maxima above the ground, acting as a new source of turbulence generation. This new source of turbulent kinetic energy enhances turbulent mixing and causes mean wind profile distortion (WPD). As a results, this transient distortion in the wind profile adjusts the classical log‐law. Addressing how WPD‐induced turbulence regulates flow structures, turbulent fluxes, and transitions in stability regimes across layers remains a challenge. Eddy covariance data measured at four levels on a 62‐m tower are employed to address these questions. It is shown that the WPD initiates large turbulent eddies that penetrate downward, leading to enhanced vertical mixing and comparable turbulent transport efficiencies across layers. As a consequence, turbulence intensity and fluxes are increased. As the WPD is intensified, turbulent fluxes and turbulent flux transport caused by large eddies are also enhanced, leading to a transition from very stable to weakly stable regimes. Due to the influence of WPD‐induced large eddies, the large‐eddy turbulent Prandtl number does not deviate appreciably from unity and the partitioning between turbulent kinetic and potential energies is linearly related to the gradient Richardson number.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Oak Ridge National Laboratory NCSP Analytical Methods Subtask 3, AMPX Development and Maintenance, and NCSP Nuclear Data Subtask 6, SAMMY Modernization

The modernization of SAMMY continued with consolidation of access to covariance information for adjusted parameters and data in SAMMY. This consolidation allowed for removal of many scratch files. In addition, work was initiated to make the 0K cross section calculation more modular and less dependent on SAMMY global parameters. An initial application programming interface (API) was added to expose cross sections (including resolution broadening) generated by SAMMY to external fitting routines. The processing for thermal moderators in AMPX was updated for selected moderators for which the generated grid was not fine enough. Updated libraries were generated for SCALE. In addition, work continued to fully support new Evaluated Nuclear Data File (ENDF) formats, including the Generalized Nuclear Database Structure (GNDS) in AMPX.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Residuals Approach to Filtering, Smoothing and Identification for Static Distributed Systems

An approach for state estimation and identification of spatially distributed parameters embedded in static distributed (elliptic) system models is advanced. The method of maximum likelihood is used to find parameter values that maximize a likelihood functional for the system model, or equivalently, that minimize the negative logarithm of this functional. To find the minimum, a Newton-Raphson search is conducted that from an initial estimate generates a convergent sequence of parameter estimates. For simplicity, a Gauss-Markov approach is used to approximate the Hessian in terms of products of first derivatives. The gradient and approximate Hessian are computed by first arranging the negative log likelihood functional into a form based on the square root factorization of the predicted covariance of the measurement process. The resulting data processing approach, referred to here by the new term of predicted data covariance square root filtering, makes the gradient and approximate Hessian calculations very simple. A closely related set of state estimates is also produced by the maximum likelihood method: smoothed estimates that are optimal in a conditional mean sense and filtered estimates that emerge from the predicted data covariance square root filter.

Rodriguez, G.↗

Local spin polarizations in relativistic heavy-ion collisions

Here, based on a generalized side-jump formalism for massless chiral fermions, which naturally takes into account the spin-orbit coupling in the scattering of two chiral fermions and the chiral vortical effect in a rotating chiral fermion matter, we have developed a covariant and total-angular-momentum-conserved chiral transport model to study both the global and local polarizations of this matter. For a system of massless quarks of random spin orientations and finite vorticity in a box, we have demonstrated that the model can exactly conserve the total angular momentum of the system and dynamically generate the quark spin polarization expected from a thermally equilibrated quark matter. Using this model to study the spin polarization in relativistic heavy-ion collision, we have found that the local quark spin polarizations depend strongly on the reference frame where they are evaluated as a result of the nontrivial axial charge distribution caused by the chiral vortical effect. We have further shown that because of the anomalous orbital or side-jump contribution to the quark spin polarization, the local quark polarizations calculated in the medium rest frame are qualitatively consistent with the local polarizations of Lambda hyperons measured in experiments.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Evaluating the feasibility of using downwind methods to quantify point source oil and gas emissions using continuously monitoring fence-line sensors

The dependable reporting of methane (CH 4 ) emissions from point sources, such as fugitive leaks from oil and gas infrastructure, is important for profit maximization (retaining more hydrocarbons), evaluating climate impacts, assessing CH 4 fees for regulatory programs, and validating CH 4 intensity in differentiated gas programs. Currently, there are disagreements between emissions reported by different quantification techniques for the same sources. It has been suggested that downwind CH 4 quantification methods using CH 4 measurements on the fence line of production facilities could be used to generate emission estimates from oil and gas operations at the site level, but it is currently unclear how accurate the quantified emissions are. To investigate the accuracy of downwind methods, this study uses fence-line simulated data collected during controlled-release experiments as input for a non-standard closed-path eddy covariance (EC), the Gaussian plume inverse model (GPIM), and the backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLs) model in a range of atmospheric conditions. This study's EC attempt was unsuccessful due to data collection and instrumentation issues, resulting in invalid results characterized by underestimated emissions, large negative fluxes, and cospectra/ogives that deviated from their ideal shapes. Consequently, the EC results could not be compared with the GPIM and bLS model. The bLs model demonstrated the highest accuracy for single-release single-point emissions, though it exhibited greater uncertainty than GPIM under multi-release conditions. Across the GPIM and bLs model, the most reliable quantification was achieved with 15 min averaging and a narrow 5° wind sector range. Although EC was limited in this context, future studies should consider employing a standard EC system and further optimizing GPIM and bLs approaches – particularly for complex multi-source scenarios – to enhance quantification accuracy and reduce uncertainty.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Mission Analysis Program for Solar Electric Propulsion (MAPSEP). Volume 1: Analytical manual

The mission analysis program for solar electric propulsion (MAPSEP) is comprised of the basic modes: TOPSEP (trajectory generation), GODSEP (linear error analysis), and SIMSEP (simulation). The program is designed to analyze any low thrust mission with respect to trajectory performance, guidance and navigation, and to provide system related requirements for the purpose of vehicle design. The MAPSEP organization is described along with all models and algorithms. Topics discussed include: trajectory and error covariance propagation methods, orbit determination processes, thrust modeling, and trajectory correction (guidance) schemes.

Hong, P. E.↗

Characterizations of linear sufficient statistics

A necessary and sufficient condition is developed such that there exists a continous linear sufficient statistic T for a dominated collection of totally finite measures defined on the Borel field generated by the open sets of a Banach space X. In particular, corollary necessary and sufficient conditions are given so that there exists a rank K linear sufficient statistic T for any finite collection of probability measures having n-variate normal densities. In this case a simple calculation, involving only the population means and covariances, determines the smallest integer K for which there exists a rank K linear sufficient statistic T (as well as an associated statistic T itself).

Peters, B. C., Jr.↗

Geographically correlated orbit error for the Topex satellite using GPS tracking

This paper reports on ongoing investigations of geographically correlated orbit error performed in support of precise orbit determination for the Topex/Poseidon mission. Tracking data is assumed to be generated with the Global Positioning System. Geographically correlated orbit error due to errors in modeling the gravity field is described and demonstrated. A method for rational selection of the gravity model coefficients which produce significant orbit error is also presented. The effects of these coefficient errors and other error sources is evaluated using a consider covariance approach. Finally, the covariance analysis is used to evaluate the orbit accuracy for Topex using dynamic, reduced dynamic, and kinematic GPS tracking. The reduced dynamic and kinematic approaches to orbit determination are found to have significant advantages with respect to reducing the level of geographically correlated orbit errors.

Rosborough, George↗

A Multistage Stochastic Transmission Expansion Algorithm for Wide-Area Planning under Uncertainty

The overall objective for this project was to develop and demonstrate a set of methods for solving the transmission investment problem for a large network considering many possible scenarios of future conditions and multiple decision points when investments can be made. Project sub-objectives achieved this goal through a succession of extending the methods to apply to problems with increasing complexity or additional features, including the number of decision points, whether generation and transmission are co-optimized, and whether AC or DC power flow is used. A transmission model was developed for the Western Electric Coordinating Council (WECC) region, the high-voltage transmission system that serves the western third of the continental U.S. Using a dataset provided by WECC and by researchers from John Hopkins University, we have validated and demonstrated the model and used it to compare the new method for solving multi-stage stochastic transmission planning to several state-of-the-art techniques. The project has resulted in several key outcomes and achievements: The covariance-based method for choosing a small set of hours to represent short-term variability has superior performance in terms of accuracy to existing methods, including K-means clustering and Importance Sampling; The combined partitioning method for long-term uncertainty with the nested clustering approach for choosing representative hours for each long-term group has superior accuracy for equivalent computational effort compared with existing methods; Using the partitioning/clustering method combined with Sample Average Approximation provides both statistical bounds on the quality of the solution and at the same time, a complete investment plan for all contingencies in the full uncertainty set; no existing methods can provide both at the same time; The method is demonstrated to work well for choosing both transmission and generation investments; A variant on the method allows for both scenario selection and simultaneous correction for the error from the DC power flow approximation to provide a tractable method for AC power flow-based transmission planning under uncertainty; The method applied to the WECC case study demonstrates the additional value to the system operator and the consumer of identifying flexible investment options in the near-term decisions. In particular, the case study exhibits significant option value in postponing some transmission additions that appear useful but in some long-term system states create new congestion problems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Decomposing Shortwave Top-of-Atmosphere and Surface Radiative Flux Variations in Terms of Surface and Atmospheric Contributions

Adiagnostic tool for determining surface and atmospheric contributions to interannual variations in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflected shortwave (SW) and net downward SW surface radiative fluxes is introduced. The method requires only upward and downward radiative fluxes at the TOA and surface as input and therefore can readily be applied to both satellite-derived and model-generated adiative fluxes. Observations from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) Edition 4.0 product show that 81% of the monthly variability in global mean reflected SW TOA flux anomalies is associated with atmospheric variations (mainly clouds),6%is from surface variations, and 13% is from atmosphere–surface covariability. Over the Arctic Ocean, most of the variability in both reflected SW TOA flux and net downward SW surface flux anomalies is explained by variations in sea ice and cloud fraction alone (r2 5 0.94). Compared to CERES, variability in two reanalyses—the ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2)—show large differences in the regional distribution of variance for both the atmospheric and surface contributions to anomalies in net downward SW surface flux. For MERRA-2 the atmospheric contribution is 17% too large compared to CERES while ERA-Interim underestimates the variance by 15%. The difference is mainly due to how cloud variations are represented in the reanalyses. The overall surface contribution in both ERA-Interim and MERRA-2 is smaller than CERES EBAF by 15% for ERA-Interim and 58% for MERRA-2, highlighting limitations of the reanalyses in representing surface albedo variations and their influence on SW radiative fluxes.

Norman G. Loeb↗

Chrono-Validation of Near-Real-Time Landslide Susceptibility Models via Plugin Statistical Simulations

The idea behind any validation scheme in landslide susceptibility studies is to test whether a model calibrated on a certain data can predict an unknown dataset of the same nature (landslide presences/absences and covariates). Almost the entirety of landslide susceptibility studies are validated by subsetting a single dataset into a training and test sets. This dataset usually corresponds either to event-specific or to historical inventories. Very rarely, a multi-temporal inventory is available and, in the few cases where this condition is met, the validation practices involve training a model on a specific landslide inventory, deriving a single predictive equation and validating it on a subsequent landslide inventory. This commonly leads landslide predictive studies, even those with a strong statistical rigor, to neglect the uncertainty estimation in their modeling scheme. In statistics, validation can also be performed via statistical simulations. This means that after fitting a given model, one can generate any number of predictive functions and test their predictive skills on any type and number of unknown datasets. In this work, we take a similar direction and we apply it to model and validate three separate co-seismic inventories, including an uncertainty estimation phase. We mapped these inventories within the same area in Indonesia, for three earthquakes occurred in 2012, 2017 and 2018. Specifically, we build three event-specific Bayesian Generalize Additive Models of the binomial family. From each model we then simulate 1000 predictive realizations over the remaining two inventories, by using a plug-in scheme where all the morphometric covariates are kept fixed and only the ground motion is replaced according to the prediction target. By doing so, we introduce a new analytical tool for near-real-time landslide predictive purposes, which is able to produce a probabilistic model which stands in between the definitions of susceptibility and hazard. In fact, our model is able to accurately estimate “where” and “when” - although not “how frequently” - landslide have occurred by featuring the multitemporal information of the trigger. In our findings, the simulations are quite similar to the fitted models; and the nine combinations we analyse produce excellent performance. This result confirms the assumption that “the past is the key to the future”, as we show that the relative contribution of each variable and their interactions in each probabilistic model remains practically the same across temporal replicates. This information is not trivial because it supports the routines implemented in global near-real-time applications.

Temporal validation↗

NASA Tech Briefs, September 2013

Topics include: ISS Ammonia Leak Detection Through X-Ray Fluorescence; A System for Measuring the Sway of the Vehicle Assembly Building; Fast, High-Precision Readout Circuit for Detector Arrays; Victim Simulator for Victim Detection Radar; Hydrometeor Size Distribution Measurements by Imaging the Attenuation of a Laser Spot; Quasi-Linear Circuit; High-Speed, High-Resolution Time-to-Digital Conversion; Li-Ion Battery and Supercapacitor Hybrid Design for Long Extravehicular Activities; Ultrasonic Low-Friction Containment Plate for Thermal and Ultrasonic Stir Weld Processes; High-Powered, Ultrasonically Assisted Thermal Stir Welding; Next-Generation MKIII Lightweight HUT/Hatch Assembly; Centrifugal Sieve for Gravity-Level-Independent Size; Segregation of Granular Materials; Ion Exchange Technology Development in Support of the Urine Processor Assembly; Nickel-Graphite Composite Compliant Interface and/or Hot Shoe Material; UltraSail CubeSat Solar Sail Flight Experiment; Mechanism for Deploying a Long, Thin-Film Antenna From a Rover; Counterflow Regolith Heat Exchanger; Acquisition and Retaining Granular Samples via a Rotating Coring Bit; Very-Low-Cost, Rugged Vacuum System; Medicine Delivery Device With Integrated Sterilization and Detection; FRET-Aptamer Assays for Bone Marker Assessment, C-Telopeptide, Creatinine, and Vitamin D; Multimode Directional Coupler for Utilization of Harmonic Frequencies from TWTAs; Dual-Polarization, Multi-Frequency Antenna Array for use with Hurricane Imaging Radiometer; Complementary Barrier Infrared Detector (CBIRD) Contact Methods; Autonomous Control of Space Nuclear Reactors; High-Power, High-Speed Electro-Optic Pockels Cell Modulator; Covariance Analysis Tool (G-CAT) for Computing Ascent, Descent, and Landing Errors; Enigma Version 12; Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) Shield Ballistic Limit Analysis Program; Spitzer Telemetry Processing System; Planetary Protection Bioburden Analysis Program; Wing Leading Edge RCC Rapid Response Damage Prediction Tool (IMPACT2); ISSM: Ice Sheet System Model; Automated Loads Analysis System (ATLAS); Integrated Main Propulsion System Performance Reconstruction Process/Models. Phoenix Telemetry Processor; Contact Graph Routing Enhancements Developed in ION for DTN; GFEChutes Lo-Fi; Advanced Strategic and Tactical Relay Request Management for the Mars Relay Operations Service; Software for Generating Troposphere Corrections for InSAR Using GPS and Weather Model Data; Ionospheric Specifications for SAR Interferometry (ISSI); Implementation of a Wavefront-Sensing Algorithm; Sally Ride EarthKAM - Automated Image Geo-Referencing Using Google Earth Web Plug-In; Trade Space Specification Tool (TSST) for Rapid Mission Architecture (Version 1.2); Acoustic Emission Analysis Applet (AEAA) Software; Memory-Efficient Onboard Rock Segmentation; Advanced Multimission Operations System (ATMO); Robot Sequencing and Visualization Program (RSVP); Automating Hyperspectral Data for Rapid Response in Volcanic Emergencies; Raster-Based Approach to Solar Pressure Modeling; Space Images for NASA JPL Android Version; Kinect Engineering with Learning (KEWL); Spacecraft 3D Augmented Reality Mobile App; MPST Software: grl_pef_check; Real-Time Multimission Event Notification System for Mars Relay; SIM_EXPLORE: Software for Directed Exploration of Complex Systems; Mobile Timekeeping Application Built on Reverse-Engineered JPL Infrastructure; Advanced Query and Data Mining Capabilities for MaROS; Jettison Engineering Trajectory Tool; MPST Software: grl_suppdoc; PredGuid+A: Orion Entry Guidance Modified for Aerocapture; Planning Coverage Campaigns for Mission Design and Analysis: CLASP for DESDynl; and Space Place Prime.

Source record↗

Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence/eddy covariance measurements at NGEE Arctic Council site, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2022

Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is emitted from the chlorophyll antenna complexes during the light harvesting and photophysical reactions of photosynthesis. It is directly coupled with and therefore can be used to estimate photosynthetic electron transport and CO2 assimilation. SIF, when observed at the ecosystem level, provides information about ecosystem functions that complements the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2, CH4, water vapor, and sensible heat. NEE observations have been conducted with the eddy covariance (EC) approach at the NGEE Arctic Council, Alaska site for years. However, concurrent SIF observations have not been available. In June 2022, we installed the fluorescence automated measurement equipment (FAME) at the NGEE Arctic Council site. The zip file contains 3,187 *.dat files that can be opened with a text editor or in *.csv.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radial orbit error reduction and sea surface topography determination using satellite altimetry

A method is presented in satellite altimetry that attempts to simultaneously determine the geoid and sea surface topography with minimum wavelengths of about 500 km and to reduce the radial orbit error caused by geopotential errors. The modeling of the radial orbit error is made using the linearized Lagrangian perturbation theory. Secular and second order effects are also included. After a rather extensive validation of the linearized equations, alternative expressions of the radial orbit error are derived. Numerical estimates for the radial orbit error and geoid undulation error are computed using the differences of two geopotential models as potential coefficient errors, for a SEASAT orbit. To provide statistical estimates of the radial distances and the geoid, a covariance propagation is made based on the full geopotential covariance. Accuracy estimates for the SEASAT orbits are given which agree quite well with already published results. Observation equations are develped using sea surface heights and crossover discrepancies as observables. A minimum variance solution with prior information provides estimates of parameters representing the sea surface topography and corrections to the gravity field that is used for the orbit generation. The simulation results show that the method can be used to effectively reduce the radial orbit error and recover the sea surface topography.

Engelis, Theodossios↗

Mapping Post-Climate Change Biogeographical Regions with Deep Latent Variable Models

Forecasting future changes to biodiversity due to shifts in climate is challenging due to nonlinear interactions between species as recorded in their presence/absence data. This work proposes using variational autoencoders with environmental covariates to identify low-dimensional structure in species’ joint co-occurrence patterns and leveraging this simplified representation to provide multivariate predictions of their habitat extent under future climate scenarios. We pursue a latent space clustering approach to map biogeographical regions of frequently co-occurring species and apply this methodology to a dataset from northern Belgium, generating predictive maps illustrating how these regions may expand or contract with changing temperature under a future climate scenario.

Krapu, Chris↗

A general mechanistic framework for cross-scale understanding of hot spots and hot moments in carbon and water fluxes

Semi-arid ecosystems, like those in the American Southwest, exert a massive impact on the interannual variability of carbon and water cycling. Unfortunately, these carbon and water fluxes are notoriously difficult to predict due to their high spatial and temporal variability, which is poorly captured by the current generation of vegetation models. Indeed, this region is exemplified by the ‘hot spots and hot moments’ concept, which states that small areas in space (‘hot spots’) and transient moments in time (‘hot moments’) exert an outsized influence on biogeochemical cycling. However, the factors that regulate these pulses in biogeochemical activity are unknown, as is their variability across space and time. These uncertainties severely limit efforts to better represent hot spots and hot moments in models. Here, we seek to develop a generalized method for detecting and quantifying the importance of hot spots and hot moments from individual plant to regional scales. Underpinning this method is our recently developed statistical approach for identifying hot spots and hot moments. By applying this method to semi-continuous measurements of plant water status, a depth profile of soil water potential, and ecosystem fluxes via eddy covariance, we will track the fate of water through the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum and identify the mechanistic drivers of these transient pulses in biogeochemical activity. Then, we will expand this approach across a broad network of Ameriflux towers, and apply a machine learning approach that will allow us to upscale measurements of hot spots and hot moments across the American Southwest and quantify their impact on carbon and water cycles. These products will allow us to identify hot spots and hot moments across spatio-temporal scales and will serve as crucial data sources for validating a new generation of models that can better capture highly dynamic carbon and water fluxes. The proposed method will be easily transferable across biomes and will serve as a framework for future research on hot spots and hot moments across the plant ecophysiology, biometeorology, and vegetation modeling communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An analytical study of noise generation by subsonic flows in the presence of rigid surfaces

A general analytical method is developed for determination of the radiated noise field from highly sheared, subsonic flows in the presence of rigid surfaces. The method is specifically formulated to use measurable flow field properties as the basis input data for calculations. The governing equations of a viscous, incompressible fluid are employed to determine approximately the so-called shear noise source strength distribution in the flow. Mean rates of strain and fluctuating velocity covariances are the fundamental input data for calculations. The method is applied to the wall jet region of a circular jet impinging at 45 deg to an infinite plane surface. Velocity field measurements of Foss are used to describe the required flow properties. Comparisons of calculated results with measured surface pressures and sound pressure levels are given and discussed.

Wooley, J. P.↗