Evaluation of covariant behavior of experimental quantities through statistical analysis of matched pairs of pulse height data
Not Available
Venkataraman, Ramkumar↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Covariance Data”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Surface Meteorological Station - ARL 2m, Sonic + irga flux, Prineville - Raw Data
This dataset provides information for calculating eddy covariance flux measurements.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Design Optimization of a Criticality Experiment for the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment Facility
Neutronics simulations of Molten Chloride Fast Reactors have quantifiable biases that arise from nuclear data, modeling choices, or numerical methods. The multiphysics nature of molten salt reactors makes it challenging to disentangle neutronics modeling biases from biases originating from other physical phenomena. In comparison to a mock-up reactor, criticality experiments can specifically assess the neutronics modeling bias while limiting multiphysics effects. The criticality experiment must be neutronically representative of the full-scale reactor to be valuable. Here, in this paper, we describe the design of a criticality experiment to validate only the neutronics of TerraPower’s Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE) and its criticality safety upset scenarios. The proposed experiment uses different chlorine-containing materials to maximize its similarity to the MCRE. The design process uses a constrained Bayesian optimization algorithm to investigate different objective functions that use covariance information for 35 Cl nuclear data. The experiments could reduce the nuclear data–induced uncertainty in k eff of the MCRE from 2161 to 886 pcm. They would also increase the upper subcritical limit of the MCRE criticality safety upset scenario from 0.94101 to 0.94476 when using the WHISPER analysis framework.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Monitoring covariance in multivariate time series: Comparing machine learning and statistical approaches
Abstract In complex systems with multiple variables monitored at high‐frequency, variables are not only temporally autocorrelated, but they may also be nonlinearly related or exhibit nonstationarity as the inputs or operation changes. One approach to handling such variables is to detrend them prior to monitoring and then apply control charts that assume independence and stationarity to the residuals. Monitoring controlled systems is even more challenging because the control strategy seeks to maintain variables at prespecified mean levels, and to compensate, correlations among variables may change, making monitoring the covariance essential. In this paper, a vector autoregressive model (VAR) is compared with a multivariate random forest (MRF) and a neural network (NN) for detrending multivariate time series prior to monitoring the covariance of the residuals using a multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) control chart. Machine learning models have an advantage when the data's structure is unknown or may change. We design a novel simulation study with nonlinear, nonstationary, and autocorrelated data to compare the different detrending models and subsequent covariance monitoring. The machine learning models have superior performance for nonlinear and strongly autocorrelated data and similar performance for linear data. An illustration with data from a reverse osmosis process is given.
Weix, Derek↗
Generalized Bayesian Framework for Evaluation of Integral Benchmark Experiments
A recently published generalized Bayesian optimization framework has provided a way to retract any or all of the three common assumptions underlying the conventional Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) optimization method based on the concepts introduced in reference two. These assumptions are: 1. Perfection: The model used for data evaluation and the prior probability distribution function (PDF) of generalized* data are perfect; 2. Normality: The prior and posterior PDF are normal; and 3. Linearity: The model is linear. In this work we outline how the framework in 1 could be directly adopted for improved evaluation of nuclear criticality integral benchmark experiments (IBEs) by: 1. Removing the first assumption alone by utilizing the concept of imperfections introduced in 1 to enable evaluation in the presence of discrepancies between the data and model or of missing covariance information by a GLLS method that will be seen as a generalization of the conventional GLLS method employed by the TSURFER code, and by 2. Removing the remaining two assumptions by implement- ing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for computation of the posterior PDF in the SAMPLER code, where TSURFER and SAMPLER are the uncertainty quantification (UQ) codes for IBEs in the SCALE code system based on the GLLS, and the stochastic method, respectively.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Bayesian Optimization Framework for Imperfect Data or Models
Conventional Bayesian optimization methods implicitly assume that the data and model being optimized are “perfect.” This assumption leads to inaccurate posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) when applied to “imperfect” data or models. The new Bayesian optimization framework presented in this report provides a way to parameterize the effect of imperfections usually encountered in a prior PDF of generalized data or a model on the posterior PDF. The effects of imperfections are parameterized by a set of constraints imposed on the posterior expectation values of deviations between the data and the model and on their covariance matrix elements. A particular set of values for these constraints conveys an evaluator’s best estimate of the effect of imperfections on the corresponding posterior expectation values. When a prior PDF of generalized data is assumed to be normal, an expression for a posterior PDF satisfying an arbitrary set of constraints is derived analytically for linear models. An analogous iterative algorithm is given for nonlinear models. The corresponding posterior PDF should be used to estimate any posterior expectation values in the presence of imperfections parameterized by that set of constraints. A posterior PDF of a conventional Bayesian optimization method is recovered analytically when all evaluator-specified constraints are set to zero (i.e., in the absence of any imperfections). The analytical expressions derived in this report for normal PDFs and linear models were verified numerically by a Metropolis–Hastings Monte Carlo method. The methods presented herein could be applied to any kind of data or models, including differential cross-section data or integral benchmark experiments.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Leaf 13 C data constrain the uncertainty of the carbon dynamics of temperate forest ecosystems
Stable carbon isotope discrimination occurred in plant biophysical and biogeochemical processes can help understand plant physiology and soil biogeochemistry with respect to carbon cycling. Here, we incorporated the photosynthetic carbon isotope discrimination into a process-based land surface model (iTEM) to test if stable carbon isotope composition (δ 13 C) can impose additional constraint on model parameters. Sequential data assimilation was implemented at six eddy covariance flux tower sites using carbon flux observations including gross primary productivity (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) with and without considering foliar δ 13 C (δ 13 C f ) measurement constraints, respectively. Our model-data fusion showed that δ 13 C f can provide useful constraint on photosynthetic (V cmax25 , the maximum rate of carboxylation at 25°C) and stomatal (g1, the slope of stomatal function) parameters as well as the posterior carbon fluxes. When including δ 13 C f measurement, g1 spatially varies among the six sites and is significantly correlated with annual precipitation. We incorporated the statistical relationship between g1 and annual precipitation into iTEM, which is then used to quantify the regional carbon dynamic in temperate forest ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere. Compared with the simulation only conditioned on carbon flux observations, regional carbon flux estimations performed slightly better against the FLUXCOM products and the uncertainties of modeled carbon fluxes were reduced by 27%. Our study demonstrated that δ 13 C f data constrains carbon flux uncertainties across space.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Meteorological Variables and Energy Fluxes at the Pumphouse Site, Crested Butte, CO 2017-2019
This data contains output from the pumphouse eddy covariance tower that includes shortwave radiation, longwave radiation, net radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, as well as sensible, latent, and ground heat fluxes. Also included is calculated evapotranspiration from the latent heat flux and the latent heat of vaporization. All data are on a daily timestep and displayed in Mountain Time. The data has been processed, and Quality Assurance / Quality Control (QA/QC) was done, but any daily gaps in the data have not been filled in. This research was funded by the Department of Energy and performed as part of the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area. This research aimed to constrain evapotranspiration in a high-elevation catchment.The dataset includes one comma-separated values (CSV) data file (EddyCovariance_MeteorlogicalVariables_CrestedButtePumphouse.csv). Additionally, three metadata CSV files are included: (1) location metadata file (locations.csv), which contains location metadata and coordinates; (2) a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; and (3) a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type.This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Global study of separable pairing interaction in covariant density functional theory
A systematic global investigation of pairing properties based on all available experimental data on pairing indicators has been performed for the first time in the framework of covariant density functional theory. It is based on the separable pairing interaction. The optimization of the scaling factors of this interaction to experimental data clearly reveals its isospin dependence in the neutron subsystem. However, the situation is less certain in the proton subsystem since similar accuracy of the description of pairing indicators can be achieved both with isospin-dependent and mass-dependent scaling factors. The differences in the functional dependencies of scaling factors lead to uncertainties in the prediction of proton and neutron pairing properties which are especially pronounced at high isospin and could have a significant impact on some physical observables. For a given part of the nuclear chart the scaling factors for spherical nuclei are smaller than those for deformed ones; this feature exists also in nonrelativistic density functional theories. Furthermore, its origin is traced back to particle-vibration coupling in odd-A nuclei which is missing in all existing global studies of pairing. Although the present investigation is based on the NL5(E) covariant energy density functional (CEDF), its general conclusions are expected to be valid also for other CEDFs built at the Hartree level.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Atmospheric condition identification in multivariate data through a metric for total variation
Identification of atmospheric conditions within a multivariable atmospheric data set is a necessary step in the validation of emerging and existing high-fidelity models used to simulate wind plant flows and operation.Atmospheric conditions relevant for wind energy research include stationary conditions, given the need for well-converged statistics for model validation, as well as conditions observed less frequently, such as extreme atmospheric events, which are used in wind turbine and wind plant design.Aggregation of observations without regard to covariance between time series discounts the dynamical nature of the atmosphere and is not sufficiently representative of atmospheric conditions.Identification and characterization of continuous time periods with atmospheric conditions that have a high value for analysis or simulation set the stage for more advanced model validation and the development of real-time control and operational strategies.The current work explores a single metric for variation in a multivariate data sample that quantifies variability within each channel as well as covariance between channels.The total variation is used to identify conditions of interest that conform to desired objective functions, such as stationary conditions, ramps or waves of wind speed, and changes in wind direction.Total variation is somewhat sensitive to the presence of outliers in the input data, and the method is best complemented by quality-control procedures to ensure reliable results.The direct detection and classification of events or conditions of interest within atmospheric data sets is vital to developing our understanding of wind plant response and to the formulation of forecasting and control models.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Dryness controls temperature-optimized gross primary productivity across vegetation types
Temperature response of gross primary productivity (GPP) is a well-known property of ecosystem, but GPP at the optimum temperature (GPP_T opt ) has not been fully discussed. Our understanding of how GPP_T opt responds to warming and water availability is highly limited. Here, in this study, we analyzed data at 326 globally distributed eddy covariance sites (79°N-37°S), to identify controlling factors of GPP_T opt . Although GPP_T opt was significantly influenced by soil moisture, global solar radiation, mean annual temperature, and vapor pressure deficit in a non-linear pattern (R 2 = 0.47), the direction and magnitude of these climate variables’ effects on GPP_T opt depend on the dryness index (DI), a ratio of potential evapotranspiration to precipitation. The spatial pattern showed that soil moisture did not affect GPP_T opt across energy-limited sites with DI < 1 while dominated GPP_T opt across water-limited sites with DI >1. The temporal pattern showed that GPP_T opt was lowered by warming or low precipitation in water-limited sites while energy-limited sites tended to maintain a stable GPP_T opt regardless of changes in air temperature. Vegetation types in humid climates tended to have higher GPP_T opt and were more likely to benefit from a warmer climate since it was not restricted by water conditions. This study highlights that the response of GPP_T opt to global warming depends on the dryness conditions, which explains the nonlinear control of water and temperature over GPP_T opt . Our finding is essential to realistic prediction of terrestrial carbon uptake under future climate and vegetation conditions.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Unresolved resonance parameter evaluation and uncertainty quantification of n + 181Ta reactions
Not Available
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Floods and Heavy Precipitation at the Global Scale: 100‐Year Analysis and 180‐Year Reconstruction
Floods and heavy precipitation have disruptive impacts worldwide, but their historical variability remains only partially understood at the global scale. This article aims at reducing this knowledge gap by jointly analyzing seasonal maxima of streamflow and precipitation at more than 3,000 stations over a 100‐year period. The analysis is based on Hidden Climate Indices (HCIs). Like standard climate indices (e.g., Nino 3.4, NAO), HCIs are used as covariates explaining the temporal variability of data, but unlike them, HCIs are estimated from the data. In this work, a distinction is made between common HCIs, that affect both heavy precipitation and floods, and specific HCIs, that exclusively affect one or the other. Overall, HCIs do not show noticeable autocorrelation, but some are affected by noticeable trends. In particular, strong and wide‐ranging trends are identified in precipitation‐specific HCIs, while trends affecting flood‐specific HCIs are weaker and have more localized effects. A probabilistic model is then derived to link HCIs and large‐scale atmospheric variables (pressure, wind, temperature) and to reconstruct HCIs since 1836 using the 20CRv3 reanalysis. In turn this allows estimating the probability of occurrence of floods and heavy precipitation at the global scale. This 180‐year reconstruction highlights flood hot‐spots and hot‐moments in the distant past, well before the establishment of perennial monitoring networks. Finally, the approach presented in this study is generic and paves the way for an improved characterization of historical variability by making a better use of long but highly irregular station data sets.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Generalized Bayesian Framework for Evaluation of Integral Benchmark Experiments
A recently published generalized Bayesian optimization framework has provided a way to retract any or all of the three common assumptions underlying the conventional Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) optimization method based on the concepts introduced in Ref. [2]. These assumptions are: 1. Perfection: The model used for data evaluation and the prior probability distribution function (PDF) of generalized data are perfect. 2. Normality: The prior and posterior PDF are normal. 3. Linearity: The model is linear. In this work we outline how the framework in [1] could be directly adopted for improved evaluation of nuclear criticality integral benchmark experiments (IBEs) by: 1. Removing the first assumption alone by utilizing the concept of imperfections introduced in [1] to enable evaluation in the presence of discrepancies between the data and model or of missing covariance information by a GLLS method that will be seen as a generalization of the conventional GLLS method employed by the TSURFER code, and by 2. Removing the remaining two assumptions by implementing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for computation of the posterior PDF in the SAMPLER code, where TSURFER and SAMPLER are the uncertainty quantification (UQ) codes for IBEs in the SCALE code system based on the GLLS and the stochastic method, respectively. The graphic in Figure 1 categorizes the methods discussed in terms of the assumptions that they employ to determine posterior PDFs.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Evaluations for Nuclear Criticality Safety Program 12 C, 139 La, minor actinides, 235 U [Slides]
For light nuclei, preliminary work extends the evaluation from 6.5 MeV to ~ 10 MeV. For 139 La, the team delivered full evaluation in fast region to ORNL, including covariances. For sup>235 U, RPI data simulations, the team performed simulations and showed some improvement for neutrons below 5 MeV. Some of the changes needed for more improvement might not be supported by the current format. Some of the changes above 12 MeV to account for the angular distribution of preequilibrium neutrons require a change in the PFNS evaluation procedure.
235U re-evaluation↗
Covariance Testing Progress for ENDF/B-VIII.1β1 at ORNL [Slides]
This presentation touched on how data-induced uncertainty significantly increased for thermal 235 U-fueled systems. And how 239 Pu covariance changes are worrying. Additionally discussed is how 103 Rh is the only significant important fission product change. The Impact of ENDF/B-VIII.1β1 on burnup credit similarity assessments is similar to ENDF/B-VII.1 data.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Maps of growing season gross primary production and net ecosystem exchange for Council Road Mile Marker 71, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, [2017-2023]
This data archive is in support of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) publication "Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape", by Murphy et al. (2025a). Murphy et al. (2025a) evaluated whether incorporating observed Arctic vegetation heterogeneity into ELM, the land model of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), improved simulations of tundra carbon cycling. The associated model archive can be found at Murphy et al. (2025b). The study focused on the spatial patterns and net landscape-level growing season productivity and carbon uptake. As part of this evaluation, observationally derived maps of average growing season (June–August) net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary production (GPP) were developed for the same domain. These maps, which form the dataset described here, integrate eddy covariance flux tower, remote sensing, and vegetation community data to provide spatially explicit benchmarks for model evaluation. The maps provide spatially explicit estimates of average growing season NEE and GPP across 13 tundra vegetation communities within the study domain. By combining flux tower observations with Airborne Visible-Infrared Imaging Spectrometer-Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) hyperspectral imagery and drone-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), these maps capture the heterogeneity of carbon fluxes associated with different Arctic vegetation types. While they represent average seasonal conditions rather than interannual variability, the maps provide a unique dataset for evaluating model performance, comparing vegetation community contributions to landscape-scale carbon cycling, and supporting regional analyses of Arctic carbon dynamics. This data archive contains 5 m resolution maps of vegetation communities, vegetation community average growing season GPP, and vegetation community average growing season NEE (three *.tif files), a User’s Guide (*pdf file), and Table 1 of the User’s Guide displaying vegetation community coverage and average growing season NEE and GPP values (*.csv file).
Murphy, Bailey [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000203995221)↗
Cu covariance study including impacts on past (and future) Zeus experiments
This presentation covers why we should care about Cu nuclear data. It also covers the current state of Cu63 and Cu65 covariances and the Impact on specific critical experiments.
Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP)↗