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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

COBRA:COMPUTED-TOMOGRAPHY BASED RANDOM-FIELD APPROXIMATION

SF-25-115 COBRA (COmputed-tomography Based Random-field Approximation) is a Python application for generating statistically equivalent random fields from CT-scan imagery. It leverages Karhunen–Loève expansions to model microstructural variability, enabling users to: Preprocess CT scans (filtering and Gaussian transformation); Fit covariance kernels fromempirical data; Solve eigenproblems to obtain KL modes; Sample random fields onsistent with fitted statistics; Postprocess samples back into the physical domain.

Hu, Tianchen↗
DOE OSTI2025

exfor_client

A lightweight Python client and CLI for interacting with the [EXFOR Web API](https://nds.iaea.org/exfor/x4guide/API/). This tool enables searching, retrieving, and parsing experimental nuclear data — including uncertainties, covariance information, and metadata — while preserving provenance.

Grosskopf, Mike [Los Alamos National Laboratory]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and COVID-19 severity: a prospective cohort study

The tremendous global health burden related to COVID-19 means that identifying determinants of COVID-19 severity is important for prevention and intervention. We aimed to explore long-term exposure to ambient air pollution as a potential contributor to COVID-19 severity, given its known impact on the respiratory system. Methods: We used a cohort of all people with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, aged 20 years and older and not residing in a long-term care facility in Ontario, Canada, during 2020. We evaluated the association between long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and ground-level ozone (O 3 ), and risk of COVID-19-related hospital admission, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and death. We ascertained individuals’ longterm exposures to each air pollutant based on their residence from 2015 to 2019. We used logistic regression and adjusted for confounders and selection bias using various individual and contextual covariates obtained through data linkage. Results: Among the 151105 people with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in Ontario in 2020, we observed 8630 hospital admissions, 1912 ICU admissions and 2137 deaths related to COVID-19. For each interquartile range increase in exposure to PM 2.5 (1.70 µg/m 3 ), we estimated odds ratios of 1.06 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01–1.12), 1.09 (95% CI 0.98–1.21) and 1.00 (95% CI 0.90–1.11) for hospital admission, ICU admission and death, respectively. Estimates were smaller for NO 2 . We also estimated odds ratios of 1.15 (95% CI 1.06–1.23), 1.30 (95% CI 1.12–1.50) and 1.18 (95% CI 1.02–1.36) per interquartile range increase of 5.14 ppb in O 3 for hospital admission, ICU admission and death, respectively.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1973

Development of a standardized battery of performance tests for the assessment of noise stress effects

A set of 36 relatively independent categories of human performance were identified. These categories encompass human performance in the cognitive, perceptual, and psychomotor areas, and include diagnostic measures and sensitive performance metrics. Then a prototype standardized test battery was constructed, and research was conducted to obtain information on the sensitivity of the tests to stress, the sensitivity of selected categories of performance degradation, the time course of stress effects on each of the selected tests, and the learning curves associated with each test. A research project utilizing a three factor partially repeated analysis of covariance design was conducted in which 60 male subjects were exposed to variations in noise level and quality during performance testing. Effects of randomly intermittent noise on performance of the reaction time tests were observed, but most of the other performance tests showed consistent stability. The results of 14 analyses of covariance of the data taken from the performance of the 60 subjects on the prototype standardized test battery provided information which will enable the final development and test of a standardized test battery and the associated development of differential sensitivity metrics and diagnostic classificatory system.

Theologus, G. C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Generalized, Compactly-Supported Correlation Function for Data Assimilation Applications

Correlation functions play an essential role in modern data assimilation, where they are used to model covariances given a set of tunable parameters or applied as tapering functions to localize covariances in ensemble-based schemes. One of the most widely-used correlation functions in data assimilation is the Gaspari and Cohn (1999) piecewise-rational, compactly-supported parametric correlation function (hereafter referred to as GC99). The GC99 correlation function is useful due to its tunable cut-off parameter c and Gaussian-like shape achieved when the parameter a is set to one-half. These properties are attractive for tapering functions in data assimilation applications. However, the GC99 correlation function is homogeneous over Euclidean 3-space and isotropic when restricted to the sphere, properties that may be less than ideal for some geophysical applications. GC99 is also compactly-supported on a sphere of fixed radius, which requires tuning of the cut-off parameter c that can depend on the specific application. This work presents a generalization of the GC99 correlation function that allows the cut-off parameter c and shape parameter a to vary over space to gain more flexibility in shape while maintaining its compact support property. The function, which we call the Generalized Gaspari Cohn (GenGC) correlation function, introduces inhomogeneity in Euclidean 3-space and anisotropy when restricted to the sphere by allowing both parameters c and a to vary, as functions, over the spatial domain. The GC99 correlation function is a special case of GenGC where the functions c and a are held constant, as fixed parameters rather than functions. The GenGC correlation function also generalizes the follow-on to the work of Gaspari and Cohn (1999) presented in Gaspari et al. (2006), which allowed a to vary while keeping c fixed. We illustrate through simple one- and two-dimensional examples the variety of inhomogeneous and anisotropic correlation functions GenGC can produce by varying c and a over space, and suggest applications where they may be useful in data assimilation, such as covariance modeling or localization. In particular, we describe how the GenGC correlation function can be used to construct covariances using correlation length and variance fields derived from dynamics. For example, the correlation length field for advective dynamics is governed by a partial differential equation (PDE) in N spatial dimensions, where N is the number of space dimensions of the state. Correlation length fields can be determined from this PDE and used with GenGC to construct the corresponding correlations. We can then approximate the full covariance by rescaling by the variance, which also satisfies a PDE in N spatial dimensions for advective dynamics. Thus we can approximate the full covariance without solving the covariance PDE, which is in 2N spatial dimensions, by solving just two PDEs each in only N spatial dimensions. This approach to evolving the correlation length and variance fields, then reconstructing the correlations using GenGC, is suggested as an alternative to current methods of covariance modeling in data assimilation algorithms.

GC99↗
NASA NTRS2018

Remote Sensing, Uncertainty Quantification, and a Theory of Data Systems; Workshop Report

The purpose of the workshop was to invite statisticians, applied mathematicians, computer scientists, data system architects, experts in remote sensing technology, and Climate and Earth System scientists to review, discuss, and plan research on issues related to large-scale, efficient analysis of distributed data using spatial statistical methods. Our motivation in organizing this event was to catalyze interchange among experts on the fast-emerging problem of analysis of distributed data. As part of SAMSI's 2017-2018 Program on Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Climate and the Earth System, a Working Group on Remote Sensing was established to address statistical and mathematical research problems in the analysis of remote sensing data. The Working Group has five subgroups: 1) Spatial Retrieval Methodology (the so-called \Spatial-X" subgroup); 2) Spatial Analysis for Hyperspectral Data (the so-called \Spatial-Y" subgroup); 3) Emulators for Complex Forward Models; 4) Optimization for Remote Sensing Retrievals; and 5) Theory of Data Systems (ToDS). The ToDS subgroup spent the first half of this academic year formulating a framework in which to consider the joint problem of a) optimizing statistical methods for environments where data are distributed and too large to move to a central location, and b) the design of data system infrastructures within which to implement those statistical methods. To x ideas, the Workshop focused on spatial statistical methods. To date there are many new spatial statistical methods designed with massive data sets in mind, in the literature. However, very few have been implemented for remote sensing data, and none have been implemented in operational settings like those used by NASA and NOAA. A major impediment to their use in these cases is that the data are not only massive, but are stored in different physical locations. These data must be brought together in some way in order to estimate spatial covariance functions, but moving data to a central location for analysis is tedious at best and impossible at worst. Some remote data reduction is almost certainly necessary, but how much? What are the consequences for inference? The fundamental issue underlying these questions is how to navigate the trade-space between costs and uncertainty in the estimates or inferences that are ultimately produced.

Braverman, Amy↗
NASA NTRS2025

Gaussian Process for Flight Delay Prediction: Learning a Stochastic Process

This paper presents a machine-learning approach to predict flight delays. Whereas neural networks are extensively studied for predictive capabilities, they involve non-intuitive design and extensive analysis, particularly in training and optimization processes. Instead, the proposed framework employs Gaussian Processes as a supervised learning technique for flight delay prediction. This data-driven approach trains the model using prior information, specifically the mean and covariance tied to existing data. The proposed Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model employs the day of flight as a pivotal feature for delay forecasting. We analyze flights from various routes and gauge the accuracy of the presented learning technique by comparing the predicted delays with the actual ones. Given the inherent challenges in precisely forecasting delays, we predict the delays with a 95 % confidence interval. Also, an error propagation analysis in the prediction horizon is carried out to determine the optimal time frame for prediction. The proposed method for flight delay prediction is important as airlines can strategize flight operations and issue timely advisories.

stochastic↗
DOE OSTI2024

Summary of light-element evaluation work: nuclear data uncertainty quantification

Hale & Paris (T-2) have evaluated the 15 N system to provide nuclear cross section and covariance information for nuclear data uncertainty quantification. This memo gives a brief discussion of the R-matrix method used to generate this nuclear scattering and reaction data in the ENDF-6 format.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1993

Failure modes of reduced-order orbit determination filters and their remedies

Ways in which failure can occur in reduced-order, orbit determination filter, error covariance calculations are discussed. In the context of this article, reduced-order filters denote nonoptimal filters which include fixed levels of uncertainty in some parameters of the measurement models or in the spacecraft dynamical model which are not explicitly estimated in the filter equations. Failure is defined as an increase in the orbit determination covariance with the addition of data or as an unreasonable growth in the covariance with time, i.e., nonasymptotic behavior of the covariance. Some simple, known cases of failure are discussed along with their traditional remedies. In addition, more modern remedies are discussed which are currently under development at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The article first describes the known problems of reduced-order filters when they are employed for orbit determination, and their traditional remedies. Then, having defined these, the relevancy and desirability of the more modern remedies are made apparent.

Scheeres, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Comparison of Flow-Dependent and Static Error Correlation Models in the DAO Ozone Data Assimilation System

In a data assimilation system the forecast error covariance matrix governs the way in which the data information is spread throughout the model grid. Implementation of a correct method of assigning covariances is expected to have an impact on the analysis results. The simplest models assume that correlations are constant in time and isotropic or nearly isotropic. In such models the analysis depends on the dynamics only through assumed error standard deviations. In applications to atmospheric tracer data assimilation this may lead to inaccuracies, especially in regions with strong wind shears or high gradient of potential vorticity, as well as in areas where no data are available. In order to overcome this problem we have developed a flow-dependent covariance model that is based on short term evolution of error correlations. The presentation compares performance of a static and a flow-dependent model applied to a global three- dimensional ozone data assimilation system developed at NASA s Data Assimilation Office. We will present some results of validation against WMO balloon-borne sondes and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III instrument. Experiments show that allowing forecast error correlations to evolve with the flow results in positive impact on assimilated ozone within the regions where data were not assimilated, particularly at high latitudes in both hemispheres and in the troposphere. We will also discuss statistical characteristics of both models; in particular we will argue that including evolution of error correlations leads to stronger internal consistency of a data assimilation ,

Wargan, K.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Topex orbit determination and gravity recovery using GPS data from repeat orbits

A covariance analysis is presented for a differential GPS-based technique for satellite tracking and gravity recovery to be demonstrated on Topex in the early 1990's. The technique employs data from an ensemble of repeat ground tracks to recover a unique satellite epoch state for each track and a set of invariant local gravity parameters common to all tracks. For satellites above about 800 km altitude, where gravity modeling is the dominant systematic error, averaging of random error over many arcs and adjustment of the gravity model reduces the final satellite position error. The local gravity parameters can then be used to produce a refined global gravity model. The analysis indicates that errors ranging from 5 to 8 cm in Topex altitude and 0.05 to 0.2 mgal for the gravity field can be achieved, depending on the number of repeat arcs used.

Wu, Jiun-Tsong↗
NASA NTRS1992

TOPEX orbit determination and gravity recovery using Global Positioning System data from repeat orbits

A covariance analysis is presented for satellite tracking and gravity recovery with a differential Global Positioning System-based technique to be demonstrated on TOPEX in the early 1990s. The technique employs data from an ensemble of repeat ground tracks to recover a unique satellite epoch state for each track and a set of invariant positional parameters common to all tracks. The positional parameters represent the effect of mismodeled gravitational field on the satellite orbit. At an altitude of 1336 km, where gravity modeling is the dominant systematic error, averaging of random error over many arcs and adjustment of the gravity model reduce the final satellite position error. The positional parameters can then be used to produce a refined global gravity model. The analysis indicates that errors ranging from 5 to 8 cm in TOPEX altitude and 0.05 to 0.2 mGal for the gravity field can be achieved, depending on the number of repeat arcs used.

Wu, Jiun-Tsong↗
DOE OSTI2021

The XFaster Power Spectrum and Likelihood Estimator for the Analysis of Cosmic Microwave Background Maps

We present the XFaster analysis package, XFaster is a fast, iterative angular power spectrum estimator based on a diagonal approximation to the quadratic Fisher matrix estimator. XFaster uses Monte Carlo simulations to compute noise biases and filter transfer functions and is thus a hybrid of both Monte Carlo and quadratic estimator methods. In contrast to conventional pseudo-C ℓ based methods, the algorithm described here requires a minimal number of simulations, and does not require them to be precisely representative of the data to estimate accurate covariance matrices for the bandpowers. The formalism works with polarization-sensitive observations and also data sets with identical, partially overlapping, or independent survey regions. The method was first implemented for the analysis of BOOMERanG data (Netterfield et al. 2002; Jones et al. 2006), and also used as part of the Planck analysis (Rocha et al. 2011). Here, we describe the full, publicly available analysis package, written in Python, as developed for the analysis of data from the 2015 flight of the SPIDER instrument (SPIDER Collaboration 2021). The package includes extensions for self-consistently estimating null spectra and for estimating fits for Galactic foreground contributions. We show results from the extensive validation of XFaster using simulations, and its application to the SPIDER data set.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Short-arc orbit determination using coherent X-band ranging data

The use of X-band frequencies in ground-spacecraft and spacecraft-ground telecommunication links for current and future robotic interplanetary missions makes it possible to perform ranging measurements of greater accuracy than previously obtained. It is shown that ranging data of sufficient accuracy, when acquired from multiple stations, can sense the geocentric angular position of a distant spacecraft. The application of high-accuracy S/X-band and X-band ranging to orbit determination with relatively short data arcs is investigated in planetary approach and encounter scenarios. Actual trajectory solutions for the Ulysses spacecraft constructed from S/X-band ranging and Doppler data are presented; error covariance calculations are used to predict the performance of X-band ranging and Doppler data. The Ulysses trajectory solutions indicate that the aim point for the spacecraft's February 1992 Jupiter encounter was predicted to a geocentric accuracy of 0.20 to 0.23/microrad. Explicit modeling of range bias parameters for each station pass is shown to largely remove systematic ground system calibration errors and transmission media effects from the Ulysses range measurements, which would otherwise corrupt the angle finding capabilities of the data. The Ulysses solutions were found to be reasonably consistent with the theoretical results, which suggest that angular accuracies of 0.08 to 0.1/microrad are achievable with X-band ranging.

Thurman, S. W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear Data–Induced Uncertainties in Criticality Safety Analyses for High-Burnup and Extended Enrichment Fuels

Criticality safety analyses are conducted to show compliance with regulatory standards and to demonstrate safe operational conditions during the storage and transportation of spent nuclear fuel. Given the increased interest in the industry in low-enriched uranium plus (LEU+) and higher-burnup fuel, it is important to study the impact of such fuels’ use on criticality safety analyses and the resulting nuclear data–induced uncertainties. Here, in this work, nominal pressurized water reactor assemblies with LEU+ fuel enrichments up to 8 wt% 235 U and high burnups up to 80 GWd/tonne U were studied. The assemblies were placed in a generic burnup credit cask GBC-32. As a result of the different covariance libraries, using the ENDF/B-VII.1 nuclear data library consistently resulted in lower nuclear data uncertainties than did the use of the ENDF/B-VIII.0 data library. The highest contribution in the nuclear data–induced uncertainties resulted from the major actinides, and their contribution increased with increasing burnup and enrichment.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2011

Effects of Correlated Errors on the Analysis of Space Geodetic Data

As thermal errors are reduced instrumental and troposphere correlated errors will increasingly become more important. Work in progress shows that troposphere covariance error models improve data analysis results. We expect to see stronger effects with higher data rates. Temperature modeling of delay errors may further reduce temporal correlations in the data.

thermal errors↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Systematic Discrepancies in Nuclear-Data Measurements with Machine Learning

Nuclear data and their associated co-variances are constantly being reevaluated as techniques improve and as new experimental data, as well as nuclearmodel developments, emerge. A standard technique used to evaluate mean values in nuclear data, and their associated covariances, is the generalized linear least squares (GLLS) method. Aligning with recent efforts to incorporate measurement features into nuclear data evaluation, we augment GLLS by including a linear term which attempts to predict potential systematic discrepancies in experimental data as related to the measurement features. Due to the general nature of this augmentation, we are able to apply this evaluation to three key observables: neutroninduced fission cross sections, the average prompt neutron multiplicity, and the prompt-fission neutron spectrum of ²³⁹Pu.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS2003

Ectomycorrhizal Community Structure and Soil Characteristics of Mature Lodgepole Pine (Pinus Contorta) and Adjacent Stands of Old Growth Mixed Conifer in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming USA

Forest development patterns following disturbance are known to influence the physical and chemical attributes of soils at different points in time. Changes in soil resources are thought to have a corresponding effect on ectomycorrhizal (ECM) community structure. We used molecular methods to compare below-ground ECM species richness, composition, and abundance between adjacent stands of homogenous lodgepole pine and old growth mixed conifer in Yellowstone National Park (YNP). In each stand-type we collected soil cores to both identify mycorrhizae and assess soil chemistry. Although no statistical difference was observed in the mean number of ECM root tips per core between stand types, the total number of species identified (85 versus 35) and the mean number of species per core (8.8 +/- 0.6 versus 2.5 +/- 0.3) were significantly higher in lodgepole pine. Differences between the actual and estimated species richness levels indicated that these forest types support a high number of ECM species and that undersampling was severe. Species compositions were widely disparate between stands where only four species were shared out of a total of 116. Soil analysis also revealed that mixed conifer was significantly lower in pH, but higher in organic matter, potassium, phosphorus, and ammonium when compared to lodgepole pine stands. Species richness per core was correlated with these chemical data, however, analysis of covariance indicated that stand type was the only statistically significant factor in the observed difference in species richness. Our data suggest that ECM fungal richness increases as homogenous lodgepole pine stands grow and mature, but declines after Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir colonize. Despite difficulties linking species composition with soil chemistry, there are a variety of physical and chemical factors that could be influencing ECM community structure. Future field experiments are necessary to test some of the mechanisms potentially operating within this system.

Douglas, Robert B.↗