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At least 235 records · Page 13
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NASA NTRS2020

Bias in CMIP6 Models as Compared to Observed Regional Dimming and Brightening

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions have increased considerably over the last century, but climate effects and quantification of the emissions are highly uncertain as one goes back in time. This uncertainty is partly due to a lack of observations in the pre-satellite era, making the observations we do have before 1990 additionally valuable. Aerosols suspended in the atmosphere scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation and thereby alter the Earth's surface energy balance. Previous studies show that Earth system models (ESMs) do not adequately represent surface energy fluxes over the historical era. We investigated global and regional aerosol effects over the time period 1961–2014 by looking at surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SDSR). We used observations from ground stations as well as multiple experiments from eight ESMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6). Our results show that this subset of models reproduces the observed transient SDSR well in Europe but poorly in China. We suggest that this may be attributed to missing emissions of sulfur dioxide in China, sulfur dioxide being a precursor to sulfate, which is a highly reflective aerosol and responsible for more reflective clouds. The emissions of sulfur dioxide used in the models do not show a temporal pattern that could explain observed SDSR evolution over China. The results from various aerosol emission perturbation experiments from DAMIP, RFMIP and AerChemMIP show that only simulations containing anthropogenic aerosol emissions show dimming, even if the dimming is underestimated. Simulated clear-sky and all-sky SDSR do not differ greatly, suggesting that cloud cover changes are not a dominant cause of the biased SDSR evolution in the simulations. Therefore we suggest that the discrepancy between modeled and observed SDSR evolution is partly caused by erroneous aerosol and aerosol precursor emission inventories. This is an important finding as it may help interpret whether ESMs reproduce the historical climate evolution for the right or wrong reason.

surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SDSR)↗
NASA NTRS2020

Historical and Future Changes in Air Pollutants from CMIP6 Models

Poor air quality is currently responsible for large impacts on human health across the world. In addition, the air pollutants ozone (O3) and particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) are also radiatively active in the atmosphere and can influence Earth's climate. It is important to understand the effect of air quality and climate mitigation measures over the historical period and in different future scenarios to ascertain any impacts from air pollutants on both climate and human health. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) presents an opportunity to analyse the change in air pollutants simulated by the current generation of climate and Earth system models that include a representation of chemistry and aerosols (particulate matter). The shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) used within CMIP6 encompass a wide range of trajectories in precursor emissions and climate change, allowing for an improved analysis of future changes to air pollutants. Firstly, we conduct an evaluation of the available CMIP6 models against surface observations of O3 and PM2.5. CMIP6 models consistently overestimate observed surface O3 concentrations across most regions and in most seasons by up to 16 ppb, with a large diversity in simulated values over Northern Hemisphere continental regions. Conversely, observed surface PM2.5 concentrations are consistently underestimated in CMIP6 models by up to 10 µg m−3, particularly for the Northern Hemisphere winter months, with the largest model diversity near natural emission source regions. The biases in CMIP6 models when compared to observations of O3 and PM2.5 are similar to those found in previous studies. Over the historical period (1850–2014) large increases in both surface O3 and PM2.5 are simulated by the CMIP6 models across all regions, particularly over the mid to late 20th century, when anthropogenic emissions increase markedly. Large regional historical changes are simulated for both pollutants across East and South Asia with an annual mean increase of up to 40 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m−3 for PM2.5. In future scenarios containing strong air quality and climate mitigation measures (ssp126), annual mean concentrations of air pollutants are substantially reduced across all regions by up to 15 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m−3 for PM2.5. However, for scenarios that encompass weak action on mitigating climate and reducing air pollutant emissions (ssp370), annual mean increases in both surface O3 (up 10 ppb) and PM2.5 (up to 8 µg m−3) are simulated across most regions, although, for regions like North America and Europe small reductions in PM2.5 are simulated due to the regional reduction in precursor emissions in this scenario. A comparison of simulated regional changes in both surface O3 and PM2.5 from individual CMIP6 models highlights important regional differences due to the simulated interaction of aerosols, chemistry, climate and natural emission sources within models. The projection of regional air pollutant concentrations from the latest climate and Earth system models used within CMIP6 shows that the particular future trajectory of climate and air quality mitigation measures could have important consequences for regional air quality, human health and near-term climate. Differences between individual models emphasise the importance of understanding how future Earth system feedbacks influence natural emission sources, e.g. response of biogenic emissions under climate change.

Air pollutants↗
NASA NTRS1987

Comparison of composite rotor blade models: A coupled-beam analysis and an MSC/NASTRAN finite-element model

A methodology was developed for the structural analysis of composite rotor blades. This coupled-beam analysis is relatively simple to use compared with alternative analysis techniques. The beam analysis was developed for thin-wall single-cell rotor structures and includes the effects of elastic coupling. This paper demonstrates the effectiveness of the new composite-beam analysis method through comparison of its results with those of an established baseline analysis technique. The baseline analysis is an MSC/NASTRAN finite-element model built up from anisotropic shell elements. Deformations are compared for three linear static load cases of centrifugal force at design rotor speed, applied torque, and lift for an ideal rotor in hover. A D-spar designed to twist under axial loading is the subject of the analysis. Results indicate the coupled-beam analysis is well within engineering accuracy.

Hodges, Robert V.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Simulated appearance of an evolving supercell hail storm at SSM/I microwave frequencies

The contribution of distinct classes of hydrometeors generated from a cloud model to top-of-atmosphere microwave brightness temperatures is studied at the four separate frequencies of the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I). The relative radiative role of individual modes of hydrometeors during the evolution of a severe thunderstorm is examined using a microwave radiative transfer model coupled with a three-dimensional cloud model capable of simulating the essential dynamical and microphysical features of an intense hail store. Consideration is given to plans to use the simulation results with actual multichannel measurements from SSM/I to provide a framework for multispectral precipitation retrieval algorithms.

Smith, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Mutual Inductance Problem for a System Consisting of a Current Sheet and a Thin Metal Plate

Rapid inspection of aircraft structures for flaws is of vital importance to the commercial and defense aircraft industry. In particular, inspecting thin aluminum structures for flaws is the focus of a large scale R&D effort in the nondestructive evaluation (NDE) community. Traditional eddy current methods used today are effective, but require long inspection times. New electromagnetic techniques which monitor the normal component of the magnetic field above a sample due to a sheet of current as the excitation, seem to be promising. This paper is an attempt to understand and analyze the magnetic field distribution due to a current sheet above an aluminum test sample. A simple theoretical model, coupled with a two dimensional finite element model (FEM) and experimental data will be presented in the next few sections. A current sheet above a conducting sample generates eddy currents in the material, while a sensor above the current sheet or in between the two plates monitors the normal component of the magnetic field. A rivet or a surface flaw near a rivet in an aircraft aluminum skin will disturb the magnetic field, which is imaged by the sensor. Initial results showed a strong dependence of the flaw induced normal magnetic field strength on the thickness and conductivity of the current-sheet that could not be accounted for by skin depth attenuation alone. It was believed that the eddy current imaging method explained the dependence of the thickness and conductivity of the flaw induced normal magnetic field. Further investigation, suggested the complexity associated with the mutual inductance of the system needed to be studied. The next section gives an analytical model to better understand the phenomenon.

Fulton, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Methane and Environmental Change during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM): Modeling the PETM Onset as a Two-stage Event

An atmospheric CH4 box model coupled to a global carbon cycle box model is used to constrain the carbon emission associated with the PETM and assess the role of CH4 during this event. A range of atmospheric and oceanic emission scenarios representing different amounts, rates, and isotopic signatures of emitted carbon are used to model the PETM onset. The first 3 kyr of the onset, a pre-isotope excursion stage, is simulated by the atmospheric release of 900 to 1100 Pg C CH4 with a delta C-13 of -22 to - 30 %. For a global average warming of 3 deg C, a release of CO2 to the ocean and CH4 to the atmosphere totalling 900 to 1400 Pg C, with a delta C-13 of -50 to -60%, simulates the subsequent 1 -kyr isotope excursion stage. To explain the observations, the carbon must have been released over at most 500 years. The first stage results cannot be associated with any known PETM hypothesis. However, the second stage results are consistent with a methane hydrate source. More than a single source of carbon is required to explain the PETM onset.

Carozza, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Downscaling GISS ModelE Boreal Summer Climate over Africa

The study examines the perceived added value of downscaling atmosphere-ocean global climate model simulations over Africa and adjacent oceans by a nested regional climate model. NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled ModelE simulations for June- September 1998-2002 are used to form lateral boundary conditions for synchronous simulations by the GISS RM3 regional climate model. The ModelE computational grid spacing is 2deg latitude by 2.5deg longitude and the RM3 grid spacing is 0.44deg. ModelE precipitation climatology for June-September 1998-2002 is shown to be a good proxy for 30-year means so results based on the 5-year sample are presumed to be generally representative. Comparison with observational evidence shows several discrepancies in ModelE configuration of the boreal summer inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). One glaring shortcoming is that ModelE simulations do not advance the West African rain band northward during the summer to represent monsoon precipitation onset over the Sahel. Results for 1998-2002 show that onset simulation is an important added value produced by downscaling with RM3. ModelE Eastern South Atlantic Ocean computed sea-surface temperatures (SST) are some 4 K warmer than reanalysis, contributing to large positive biases in overlying surface air temperatures (Tsfc). ModelE Tsfc are also too warm over most of Africa. RM3 downscaling somewhat mitigates the magnitude of Tsfc biases over the African continent, it eliminates the ModelE double ITCZ over the Atlantic and it produces more realistic orographic precipitation maxima. Parallel ModelE and RM3 simulations with observed SST forcing (in place of the predicted ocean) lower Tsfc errors but have mixed impacts on circulation and precipitation biases. Downscaling improvements of the meridional movement of the rain band over West Africa and the configuration of orographic precipitation maxima are realized irrespective of the SST biases.

Regional climate models↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Practical Philosophy of Complex Climate Modelling

We give an overview of the practice of developing and using complex climate models, as seen from experiences in a major climate modelling center and through participation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).We discuss the construction and calibration of models; their evaluation, especially through use of out-of-sample tests; and their exploitation in multi-model ensembles to identify biases and make predictions. We stress that adequacy or utility of climate models is best assessed via their skill against more naive predictions. The framework we use for making inferences about reality using simulations is naturally Bayesian (in an informal sense), and has many points of contact with more familiar examples of scientific epistemology. While the use of complex simulations in science is a development that changes much in how science is done in practice, we argue that the concepts being applied fit very much into traditional practices of the scientific method, albeit those more often associated with laboratory work.

complex simulation↗
NASA NTRS2016

GEM-CEDAR Challenge: Poynting Flux at DMSP and Modeled Joule Heat

Poynting flux into the ionosphere measures the electromagnetic energy coming from the magnetosphere. This energy flux can vary greatly between quiet times and geomagnetic active times. As part of the Geospace Environment Modeling-coupling energetics and dynamics of atmospheric regions modeling challenge, physics-based models of the 3-D ionosphere and ionospheric electrodynamics solvers of magnetosphere models that specify Joule heat and empirical models specifying Poynting flux were run for six geomagnetic storm events of varying intensity. We compared model results with Poynting flux values along the DMSP-15 satellite track computed from ion drift meter and magnetic field observations. Although being a different quantity, Joule heat can in practice be correlated to incoming Poynting flux because the energy is dissipated primarily in high latitudes where Poynting flux is being deposited. Within the physics-based model group, we find mixed results with some models overestimating Joule heat and some models agreeing better with observed Poynting flux rates as integrated over auroral passes. In contrast, empirical models tend to underestimate integrated Poynting flux values. Modeled Joule heat or Poynting flux patterns often resemble the observed Poynting flux patterns on a large scale, but amplitudes can differ by a factor of 2 or larger due to the highly localized nature of observed Poynting flux deposition that is not captured by the models. In addition, the positioning of modeled patterns appear to be randomly shifted against the observed Poynting flux energy input. This study is the first to compare Poynting flux and Joule heat in a large variety of models of the ionosphere.

Rastaetter, Lutz↗
NASA NTRS2021

Transition Analysis for the CRM-NLF Wind Tunnel Configuration using Transport Equation Models and Linear Stability Correlations

Transition models based on auxiliary transport equations augmenting the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) framework rely upon transition correlations that were derived from a limited number of low-speed experiments. Furthermore, these models often account for only a subset of the relevant transition mechanisms and/or cannot accurately predict the sensitivity of those mechanisms to the changes in significant flow parameters. A preceding investigation had targeted the assessment of the transport-equation-based transition models in NASA's OVERFLOW 2.3b solver, namely, the amplification factor transport (AFT-2017b) equation model coupled with the Spalart-Allmaras RANS model and the Langtry-Menter transition models (LM2009 without crossflow effects and LM2015 including the modeling of crossflow transition) implemented with Menter’s shear-stress transport equation (SST2003) RANS model. Comparisons with recent measurements at transonic freestream conditions on the Common Research Model with Natural Laminar Flow (CRM-NLF) reinforced our earlier finding that all three of the above models significantly underpredict the reported extent of the laminar flow region over the entire span of the wing, regardless of the dominant instability mechanism(s) underlying the onset of the transition process. The underprediction of the laminar flow extent was attributed to the failure of the above models in accounting for the stabilizing effect of compressibility on the amplification of Tollmien-Schlichting instabilities. Based on previous linear stability studies related to compressibility effects, the present work proposes modifications to the two classes of transition models that reduce to the original form of each model at low subsonic speeds and do not require any nonlocal flow information or additional transport equation(s). The modifications are shown to significantly improve the predicted laminar extent of the flow and compare well against the data from the CRM-NLF experiment. Additionally, a previous assessment of transition prediction based on the dual, nonparallel N -factor method in conjunction with linear parabolized stability equations (PSE) is extended to additional angles of attack to provide the first comprehensive assessment of transition models based on nonparallel disturbance amplification over the CRM-NLF. In general, the transition criterion based on the dual, nonparallel N-factor method with N TS = N CF = 6 is reasonably successful at correlating with the measured transition fronts at R eMAC = 15 million for all angles of attack investigated herein and provides additional validation of the improved predictions from the compressibility-corrected transition models.

CFD modeling↗
NASA NTRS2022

Transition Analysis for the CRM-NLF Wind Tunnel Configuration using Transport Equation Models and Linear Stability Correlations

Transition models based on auxiliary transport equations augmenting the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) framework rely upon transition correlations that were derived from a limited number of low-speed experiments. Furthermore, these models often account for only a subset of the relevant transition mechanisms and/or cannot accurately predict the sensitivity of those mechanisms to the changes in significant flow parameters. A preceding investigation had targeted the assessment of the transport-equation-based transition models in NASA's OVERFLOW 2.3b solver, namely, the amplification factor transport (AFT-2017b) equation model coupled with the Spalart-Allmaras RANS model and the Langtry-Menter transition models (LM2009 without crossflow effects and LM2015 including the modeling of crossflow transition) implemented with Menter’s shear-stress transport equation (SST2003) RANS model. Comparisons with recent measurements at transonic freestream conditions on the Common Research Model with Natural Laminar Flow (CRM-NLF) reinforced our earlier finding that all three of the above models significantly underpredict the reported extent of the laminar flow region over the entire span of the wing, regardless of the dominant instability mechanism(s) underlying the onset of the transition process. The underprediction of the laminar flow extent was attributed to the failure of the above models in accounting for the stabilizing effect of compressibility on the amplification of Tollmien-Schlichting instabilities. Based on previous linear stability studies related to compressibility effects, the present work proposes modifications to the two classes of transition models that reduce to the original form of each model at low subsonic speeds and do not require any nonlocal flow information or additional transport equation(s). The modifications are shown to significantly improve the predicted laminar extent of the flow and compare well against the data from the CRM-NLF experiment. Additionally, a previous assessment of transition prediction based on the dual, nonparallel N -factor method in conjunction with linear parabolized stability equations (PSE) is extended to additional angles of attack to provide the first comprehensive assessment of transition models based on nonparallel disturbance amplification over the CRM-NLF. In general, the transition criterion based on the dual, nonparallel N-factor method with N TS = N CF = 6 is reasonably successful at correlating with the measured transition fronts at R eMAC = 15 million for all angles of attack investigated herein and provides additional validation of the improved predictions from the compressibility-corrected transition models.

CFD modeling↗
NASA NTRS2022

Attribution of Stratospheric and Tropospheric Ozone Changes Between 1850 and 2014 in CMIP6 Models

We quantify the impacts of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), greenhouse gases (GHGs), and short-lived ozone precursors on ozone changes between 1850 and 2014 using single-forcing perturbation simulations from several Earth system models with interactive chemistry participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project. We present the responses of ozone to individual forcings and an attribution of changes in ozone columns and vertically resolved stratospheric and tropospheric ozone to these forcings. We find that whilst substantial ODS-induced ozone loss dominates the stratospheric ozone changes since the 1970s, in agreement with previous studies, increases in tropospheric ozone due to increases in short-lived ozone precursors and methane since the 1950s make increasingly important contributions to total column ozone (TCO) changes. Increases in methane also lead to substantial extra-tropical stratospheric ozone increases. Impacts of nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide on stratospheric ozone are significant but their impacts on TCO are small overall due to several opposing factors and are also associated with large dynamical variability. The multi-model mean (MMM) results show a clear change in the stratospheric ozone trends after 2000 due to now declining ODSs, but the trends are generally not significantly positive, except in the extra-tropical upper stratosphere, due to relatively small changes in forcing over this period combined with large model uncertainty. Although the MMM ozone compares well with the observations, the inter-model differences are large primarily due to the large differences in the models' representation of ODS-induced ozone depletion.

Halogenated ozone-depleting substances↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Beginning and Ending Droughts in a Warmer World

Droughts are typically caused by below-normal precipitation and typically terminate in response to high precipitation. In many regions, soil moisture is projected to decrease in a warmer world. At the same time, changes in both mean and extreme precipitation are expected as the global mean temperature increases. How will these precipitation changes interact with soil moisture changes to affect drought onset and termination? In this study, we use climate model projections from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to investigate how changes in mean precipitation affect soil moisture drought in the context of future warming in the Mediterranean and Western North America. We show that the same precipitation deficits at a global warming level of 2 degrees Celsius increase the likelihood of both moderate and severe drought compared to the pre-industrial baseline. Further, we evaluate the effectiveness of a given precipitation anomaly to terminate a soil moisture drought under different warming levels. These analyses offer a better understanding of the cascading impacts of, and relationships between, precipitation, precipitation extremes, and drought termination under warmer global temperatures.

Drought↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Beginning and Ending Droughts in a Warmer World

Droughts are typically caused by below-normal precipitation and typically terminate in response to high precipitation. In many regions, soil moisture is projected to decrease in a warmer world. At the same time, changes in both mean and extreme precipitation are expected as the global mean temperature increases. How will these precipitation changes interact with soil moisture changes to affect drought onset and termination? In this study, we use climate model projections from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to investigate how changes in mean precipitation affect soil moisture drought in the context of future warming in the Mediterranean and Western North America. We show that the same precipitation deficits at a global warming level of 2 degrees Celsius increase the likelihood of both moderate and severe drought compared to the pre-industrial baseline. Further, we evaluate the effectiveness of a given precipitation anomaly to terminate a soil moisture drought under different warming levels. These analyses offer a better understanding of the cascading impacts of, and relationships between, precipitation, precipitation extremes, and drought termination under warmer global temperatures.

Drought↗
NASA NTRS2024

The Changing Influence of Precipitation on Soil Moisture Drought With Warming in the Mediterranean and Western North America

Anthropogenic climate change has already affected drought severity and risk across many regions, and climate models project additional increases in drought risk with future warming. Historically, droughts are typically caused by periods of below-normal precipitation and terminated by average or above-normal precipitation. In many regions, however, soil moisture is projected to decrease primarily through warming-driven increases in evaporative demand, potentially affecting the ability of negative precipitation anomalies to cause drought and positive precipitation anomalies to terminate drought. Here, we use climate model simulations from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to investigate how different levels of warming (1, 2, and 3°C) affect the influence of precipitation on soil moisture drought in the Mediterranean and Western North America regions. We demonstrate that the same monthly precipitation deficits (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) at a global warming level of 2°C increase the probability of both surface and rootzone soil moisture drought by 29% in the Mediterranean and 32% and 6% in Western North America compared to the preindustrial baseline. Furthermore, the probability of a dry (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) surface soil moisture month given a high (75th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) precipitation month is 6 (Mediterranean) and 3 (Western North America) times more likely in a 2°C world compared to the preindustrial baseline. For these regions, warming will likely increase the risk of soil moisture drought during low precipitation periods while simultaneously reducing the efficacy of high precipitation periods to terminate droughts.

drought↗
NASA NTRS2018

Tropospheric Jet Response to Antarctic Ozone Depletion: An Update with Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) Models

The Southern Hemisphere (SH) zonal-mean circulation change in response to Antarctic ozone depletion is re-visited by examining a set of the latest model simulations archived for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project. All models reasonably well reproduce Antarctic ozone depletion in the late 20th century. The related SH-summer circulation changes, such as a poleward intensification of westerly jet and a poleward expansion of the Hadley cell, are also well captured. All experiments exhibit quantitatively the same multi-model mean trend, irrespective of whether the ocean is coupled or prescribed. Results are also quantitatively similar to those derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) high-top model simulations in which the stratospheric ozone is mostly prescribed with monthly- and zonally-averaged values. These results suggest that the ozone-hole-induced SH-summer circulation changes are robust across the models irrespective of the specific chemistry-atmosphere-ocean coupling.

chemistry-climate models↗
NASA NTRS2017

Approach to Modeling Boundary Layer Ingestion Using a Fully Coupled Propulsion-RANS Model

Airframe-propulsion integration concepts that use boundary layer ingestion have the potential to reduce aircraft fuel burn. One concept that has been recently explored is NASA's Starc-ABL aircraft configuration, which offers the potential for 12% mission fuel burn reduction by using a turbo-electric propulsion system with an aft-mounted electrically driven boundary layer ingestion propulsor. This large potential for improved performance motivates a more detailed study of the boundary layer ingestion propulsor design, but to date, analyses of boundary layer ingestion have used uncoupled methods. These methods account for only aerodynamic effects on the propulsion system or propulsion system effects on the aerodynamics, but not both simultaneously. This work presents a new approach for building fully coupled propulsive-aerodynamic models of boundary layer ingestion propulsion systems. A 1D thermodynamic cycle analysis is coupled to a RANS simulation to model the Starc-ABL aft propulsor at a cruise condition and the effects variation in propulsor design on performance are examined. The results indicates that both propulsion and aerodynamic effects contribute equally toward the overall performance and that the fully coupled model yields substantially different results compared to uncoupled. The most significant finding is that boundary layer ingestion, while offering substantial fuel burn savings, introduces throttle dependent aerodynamics effects that need to be accounted for. This work represents a first step toward the multidisciplinary design optimization of boundary layer ingestion propulsion systems.

Boundary Layer Ingestion↗