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At least 235 records · Page 13

Protein intake is more stable than carbohydrate or fat intake across various US demographic groups and international populations

The optimal macronutrient composition of the diet is controversial and many adults attempt to regulate the intake of specific macronutrients for various health-related reasons. The objective was to compare stability and ranges of intakes of different macronutrients across diverse adult populations in the USA and globally. US dietary intake data from NHANES 2009–2014 were used to determine macronutrient intake as a percentage of total energy intake. Variability in macronutrient intake was estimated by calculating the difference between 75th and 25th percentile (Q3–Q1) IQRs of macronutrient intake distributions. In addition, intake data from 13 other countries with per capita gross domestic product (GDP) over $10,000 US dollars (USD) were used to assess variability of intake internationally since there are large differences in types of foods consumed in different countries. Protein, carbohydrate, and fat intake (NHANES 2009–2014) was 15.7 ± 0.1, 48.1 ± 0.1, and 32.9 ± 0.1% kcal, respectively, in US adults. The IQR of protein intake distribution (3.73 ± 0.11% kcal) was 41% of carbohydrate intake distribution (9.18 ± 0.20% kcal) and 58% of fat intake distribution (6.40 ± 0.14% kcal). The IQRs of carbohydrate and fat intake distributions were significantly (P <0.01) influenced by age and race; however, the IQR of protein intake was not associated with demographic and lifestyle factors including sex, race, income, physical activity, and body weight. International mean protein intake was 16.3 ± 0.2% kcal, similar to US intake, and there was less variation in protein than carbohydrate or fat intake. Protein intake of the US population and multiple international populations, regardless of demographic and lifestyle factors, was consistently ~16% of total energy, suggesting biological control mechanism(s) tightly regulate protein intake and, consequently, influence intake of other macronutrients and food constituents. Substantial differences in intake of the other macronutrients observed in US and international populations had little influence on protein intake. This trial was registered at the ISRCTN registry as ISRCTN46157745

dietary preferences↗

Exploring the Effects of Geopolitical Shifts on Global Wildlife Trade

Abstract International wildlife trade is a major driver of species extinction and biological invasions. Anticipating environmental risks requires inferences about trade patterns, which are shaped by geopolitics. Although the future cannot be predicted, scenarios can help deal with the uncertainty of future geopolitical dynamics. We propose a framework for generating and analyzing scenarios based on four geopolitical storylines, distinguished by combinations of international trade barrier strength and domestic law enforcement degree across countries supplying and demanding wildlife. We then use historical data on bird trade to classify countries into geopolitical profiles and confirm that trade barriers and law enforcement allow predicting bird trade patterns, supporting our scenarios’ plausibility and enabling projections for future global bird trade. Our framework can be used to examine the consequences of geopolitical changes for wildlife trade and to advise policy and legislation. Reducing demand for wildlife and ameliorating global inequality are key for curbing trade related risks.

Ribeiro, Joana (ORCID:0000000237555785)↗

Climate change, malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a scoping review

Abstract To explore the effects of climate change on malaria and 20 neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), and potential effect amelioration through mitigation and adaptation, we searched for papers published from January 2010 to October 2023. We descriptively synthesised extracted data. We analysed numbers of papers meeting our inclusion criteria by country and national disease burden, healthcare access and quality index (HAQI), as well as by climate vulnerability score. From 42 693 retrieved records, 1543 full-text papers were assessed. Of 511 papers meeting the inclusion criteria, 185 studied malaria, 181 dengue and chikungunya and 53 leishmaniasis; other NTDs were relatively understudied. Mitigation was considered in 174 papers (34%) and adaption strategies in 24 (5%). Amplitude and direction of effects of climate change on malaria and NTDs are likely to vary by disease and location, be non-linear and evolve over time. Available analyses do not allow confident prediction of the overall global impact of climate change on these diseases. For dengue and chikungunya and the group of non-vector-borne NTDs, the literature privileged consideration of current low-burden countries with a high HAQI. No leishmaniasis papers considered outcomes in East Africa. Comprehensive, collaborative and standardised modelling efforts are needed to better understand how climate change will directly and indirectly affect malaria and NTDs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

CovTransformer: A transformer model for SARS-CoV-2 lineage frequency forecasting

With hundreds of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the global population, there is an ongoing need for predicting and forecasting lineage frequencies and thus identifying rapidly expanding lineages. Accurate prediction would allow for more focused experimental efforts to understand pathogenicity of future dominating lineages and characterize the extent of their immune escape. Here, we first show that the inherent noise and biases in lineage frequency data make a commonly-used regression-based approach unreliable. To address this weakness, we constructed a machine learning model for SARS-CoV-2 lineage frequency forecasting, called CovTransformer, based on the transformer architecture. We designed our model to navigate challenges such as a limited amount of data with high levels of noise and bias. We first trained and tested the model using data from the UK and the USA, and then tested the generalization ability of the model to many other countries and US states. Remarkably, the trained model makes accurate predictions two months into the future with high levels of accuracy both globally (in 31 countries with high levels of sequencing effort) and at the US-state level. Our model performed substantially better than a widely used forecasting tool, the multinomial regression model implemented in Nextstrain, demonstrating its utility in SARS-CoV-2 monitoring. Assuming a newly emerged lineage is identified and assigned, our test using retrospective data shows that our model is able to identify the dominating lineages 7 weeks in advance on average before they became dominant. Overall, our work demonstrates that transformer models represent a promising approach for SARS-CoV-2 forecasting and pandemic monitoring.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Remarkably High Internal Transcribed Spacer Haplotype Diversity of the Fungal Select Agent Coniothyrium glycines Discovered Throughout Its Range in Sub-Saharan Africa

Red leaf blotch of soybean, caused by the fungus Coniothyrium glycines, is a foliar disease characterized by blotching, necrosis, and defoliation that has only been reported from Africa. The species is listed as a Select Agent by the Federal Select Agent Program due to its potentially devastating impacts to soybean production should it spread to the United States. Despite its potential import, very few isolates are available for study. Herein, we obtained 96 new C. glycines isolates from six soybean-producing countries throughout sub-Saharan Africa. Along with 12 previously collected ones, we sequenced each at the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region. Between all isolates, we identified a total of 28 single-nucleotide polymorphisms and 23 haplotypes. One hypothesis to explain the tremendous diversity uncovered at the ITS—which is generally conserved within a species—is that our current species concept of C. glycines is too broad and that there may be multiple species that cause red leaf blotch. Zambia contained the highest haplotype diversity, a significant fraction of which remains unsampled. Most haplotypes were specific to a single country, except for two, which were found in Zambia and either neighboring Mozambique or Zimbabwe. This geographic specificity indicates that the ITS region may be useful for identifying source populations or routes of transmission should this pathogen spread beyond Africa. The observed geographic partitioning of this pathogen is likely the result of millions of years of replication on little-studied native hosts, given that soybean has only been cultivated in Africa since the early 1900s.

Plant Sciences↗

At Risk Population Estimates for Belarus, Poland and Slovakia with Machine Learning

High-resolution gridded population modeling is crucial for various applications, including disaster response planning, infectious disease spread modeling, climate change impact estimation, policy development, and more. Multiple gridded population datasets have been developed, each tailored to meet specific objectives. Among them, LandScan Global dataset is designed to represent ambient and unwarned population distributions. However, this dataset relies on a statistical approach that requires manual adjustments, making it time consuming and labour intensive. Existing machine learning (ML) methods often train and test at different spatial resolutions, potentially leading to inflated results, and they rely on Census population totals for disaggregation. To address these limitations, in this study we developed population estimates using ML models trained and tested at a consistent 30 arc-second resolution (≈1 square kilometer), specifically using Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost. These models were trained on 2020 datum to predict for 2021 for three countries: Belarus, Poland, and Slovakia. Our findings show that both RF (MAE varies from 5.75 to 13.25) and XGBoost (MAE varies from 8.15 to 23.44) model performance is close to LandScan Global estimates. Furthermore, neither of the models performed the best across all grid cells: the RF model was more effective in areas with lower populations, while XGBoost excelled in more densely populated regions. The proposed approach can be used for countries where the Census data is not available.

Lebakula, Viswadeep [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000152935914↗

Tigers at a crossroads: Shedding light on the role of Bangladesh in the illegal trade of this iconic big cat

Abstract Unsustainable wildlife trade is a major threat to many species, but quantifying trade remains challenging, as seizure data provides an incomplete understanding. For this reason, integrating multiple types of information, including interviews with actors involved in trade, is crucial if we are to understand the problem better. Hence, in this study, we digitized Bangladesh Forest Department tiger seizure records to identify trade routes and interviewed 163 individuals involved in trafficking tigers through Bangladesh's air, sea and land ports, including poachers, smugglers, and traders. We identified six ports used to import tigers, 14 ports used for tiger export and three ports showing bi‐directional trade. Elite Bangladeshis were the most important consumer group, and tigers were sourced from populations in NE India, Myanmar and Bangladesh Sundarbans to supply domestic demand. Tiger products were exported to 14 countries, including seven G20 nations, with Bangladeshi expatriates as the consumer group in three countries (United Kingdom, Germany and Qatar). Rising economic development in Bangladesh over the last decade, combined with deep‐rooted cultural ties to tiger consumption, has led to a rise in domestic demand. Additionally, rapid growth in international transport links has increased smuggling and connected local traders with global markets, increasing the complexity of global trade. These findings suggest Bangladesh is poised to play a pivotal role in tiger conservation over the next decade, requiring strong national strategies to reduce trade opportunities, disrupt networks and weaken demand.

Uddin, Nasir↗

Implementation of early psychosis services in Latin America: A scoping review

Abstract Aim The evidence of the effectiveness and cost‐effectiveness of early intervention for psychosis (EIP) services has motivated their implementation worldwide. However, complex interventions of such EIP services require local adaptations to successfully match population needs and cultural differences. Latin America is a heterogenous region where EIP services are progressively being adopted. Our aim is to map such initiatives in the region with a focus on implementation outcomes. Methods A scoping review following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic review and Meta‐Analysis extension for Scoping Reviews guidelines was conducted. International and regional databases were searched for publications describing EIP programmes in the region. Besides mapping the services, we described implementation outcomes based on the Standards for Reporting Implementation Studies Checklist. Results Ten articles describing seven EIP initiatives from the region were found. Four countries were represented: Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. The implementation outcomes reporting was heterogenous, although it was possible to ascertain EIP services are feasible and adequate for the region's context. Also, there is some evidence of effectiveness in terms of reducing hospitalizations and improving symptoms. Information about fidelity measures was scarce and there was no information about costs or cost‐effectiveness. Conclusions Only a small proportion of Latin American countries have adopted EIP services. Although these programmes seem to be feasible and effective, data on other implementation outcomes, such as fidelity, cultural appropriateness, cost‐effectiveness and affordability are not available. This might in part explain why this effective approach has not been yet scaled‐up at nationwide levels.

Aceituno, David↗

Contribution of Tibetan Plateau ecosystems to local and remote precipitation through moisture recycling

The ecosystems of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) provide multiple important ecosystem services that benefit both local populations and those beyond, such as through climate regulation services on precipitation for East Asia and China. However, the precipitation regulation service of the TP ecosystems for supplying moisture and maintaining precipitation is yet to be evaluated. In this study, we used the moisture recycling framework and a moisture tracking model to quantify the precipitation regulation services of TP ecosystems for their contribution to precipitation. We found TP ecosystems contributed substantially to local and downwind precipitation, with a declined contribution from 221 mm/year for the TP and neighboring areas, to <10 mm/year for eastern China and other surrounding countries. Among ecosystem types, grassland contributed most to precipitation, followed by barren and snow lands, forests, and shrublands. In terms of seasonality, precipitation contribution from TP ecosystems was greater in summer months than in non-summer months for western China, while the opposite was true for eastern China – though the magnitude was much smaller. Over the past two decades, the significant evapotranspiration increases in TP translated to a widespread increase in precipitation contribution for TP and downwind beneficiary regions from 2000 to 2020. Our study provides a quantitative way to understand the precipitation regulation services of TP ecosystems through moisture recycling, substantiating their key role to safeguard precipitation and the water cycle for downwind regions– effectively acting as an ecological security shelter that could be perceived by the public.

Li, Yan↗

The Algae Foundation® and Algae Technology Educational Consortium

Abstract The Algae Foundation established in February 2013 has developed a diverse portfolio of algal‐based education and workforce development programs covering education levels from kindergarten through college, aquaculture extension, and free online courses. The Algae Foundation created the Algae Technology Educational Consortium (ATEC) with five major foci including community college certificate program in algae cultivation; community college curriculum adopted for algal biotechnology degree programs; Algal Massive Open Online Courses (Algal MOOCs); Algae Academy, a kindergarten to 12th grade STEM curriculum initiative; and aquaculture extension education through the Algae Cultivation Extension Short courses (ACES). The results include the education and training of over 102,000 students, aquaculturists, entrepreneurs, and bioeconomy‐based professionals aged 8–75 years in all 50 U.S. states and 66 countries. ATEC has completed agreements with 21 community colleges and universities located in Arizona, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, Texas, and Washington. The first ATEC‐sponsored certificate degree program graduation was in May 2018. The Algae MOOC #1 has had over 15,752 students enrolled. ATEC initiated the Algae Academy in spring 2016 in Carlsbad, CA, and expanded to serving over 34,000 students in 46 states during the academic year 2019–2020. ACES has enrolled over 1,550 students from 66 countries.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Clinical practice gaps and challenges in non‐alcoholic steatohepatitis care: An international physician needs assessment

Abstract Background and aims Even as several pharmacological treatments for non‐alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are in development, the incidence of NASH is increasing on an international scale. We aim to assess clinical practice gaps and challenges of hepatologists and endocrinologists when managing patients with NASH in four countries (Germany/Italy/United Kingdom/United States) to inform educational interventions. Methods A sequential mixed‐method design was used: qualitative semi‐structured interviews followed by quantitative online surveys. Participants were hepatologists and endocrinologists practising in one of the targeted countries. Interview data underwent thematic analysis and survey data were analysed with chi‐square and Kruskal‐Wallis tests. Results Most interviewees ( n = 24) and surveyed participants (89% of n = 224) agreed that primary care must be involved in screening for NASH, yet many faced challenges involving and collaborating with them. Endocrinologists reported low knowledge of which blood markers to use when suspecting NASH (56%), when to order an MRI (65%) or ultrasound/FibroScan® (46%), and reported sub‐optimal skills interpreting alanine aminotransferase (ALT, 37%) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST, 38%) blood marker test results, causing difficulty during diagnosis. Participants believed that more evidence is needed for upcoming therapeutic agents; yet, they reported sub‐optimal knowledge of eligibility criteria for clinical trials. Knowledge and skill gaps when managing comorbidities, as well as skill gaps facilitating patient lifestyle changes were reported. Conclusions Educational interventions are needed to address the knowledge and skill gaps identified and to develop strategies to optimize patient care, which include implementing relevant care pathways, encouraging referrals and testing, and multidisciplinary collaboration, as suggested by the recent Global Consensus statement on NAFLD.

Lazure, Patrice↗

Transparency crucial to Paris climate scenarios—Response

King et al. raise important issues, several of which pertain to the broader policy discourse surrounding international climate negotiations and countries’ cli-mate pledges rather than the modeling conducted in our Policy Forum. We agree with King et al. that the updated Paris Agreement pledges could paint an overly optimistic picture of the future, especially if their success depends on postponing deeper reductions until after 2030. To illustrate a less-optimistic future, our Policy Forum includes scenarios showing what would happen if countries continued to implement current policies alone. Importantly, the “Current policy” scenarios in the Policy Forum result in less than a 10% chance of limiting global warming to below 2°C this century, whereas the “Updated pledges” scenarios result in at least a 33% chance of achieving the same temperature goal. Additional policy measures could help bridge emission gaps between current policies, updated pledges, and the global emission levels needed to cost-effectively achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals (1).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The relatively young and rural population may limit the spread and severity of COVID-19 in Africa: a modelling study

A novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread to all regions of the world. There is great uncertainty regarding how countries’ characteristics will affect the spread of the epidemic; to date, there are few studies that attempt to predict the spread of the epidemic in African countries. In this paper, we investigate the role of demographic patterns, urbanisation and comorbidities on the possible trajectories of COVID-19 in Ghana, Kenya and Senegal. We use an augmented deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model to predict the true spread of the disease, under the containment measures taken so far. We disaggregate the infected compartment into asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic and severely symptomatic to match observed clinical development of COVID-19. We also account for age structures, urbanisation and comorbidities (HIV, tuberculosis, anaemia). In our baseline model, we project that the peak of active cases will occur in July, subject to the effectiveness of policy measures. When accounting for the urbanisation, and factoring in comorbidities, the peak may occur between 2 June and 17 June (Ghana), 22 July and 29 August (Kenya) and, finally, 28 May and 15 June (Senegal). Successful containment policies could lead to lower rates of severe infections. While most cases will be mild, we project in the absence of policies further containing the spread, that between 0.78% and 1.03%, 0.61% and 1.22%, and 0.60% and 0.84% of individuals in Ghana, Kenya and Senegal, respectively, may develop severe symptoms at the time of the peak of the epidemic. Compared with Europe, Africa’s younger and rural population may modify the severity of the epidemic. The large youth population may lead to more infections but most of these infections will be asymptomatic or mild, and will probably go undetected. The higher prevalence of underlying conditions must be considered.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Google Health Trends performance reflecting dengue incidence for the Brazilian states

Abstract Background Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne infection transmitted by Aedes aegypti and mainly found in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. Since its re-introduction in 1986, Brazil has become a hotspot for dengue and has experienced yearly epidemics. As a notifiable infectious disease, Brazil uses a passive epidemiological surveillance system to collect and report cases; however, dengue burden is underestimated. Thus, Internet data streams may complement surveillance activities by providing real-time information in the face of reporting lags. Methods We analyzed 19 terms related to dengue using Google Health Trends (GHT), a free-Internet data-source, and compared it with weekly dengue incidence between 2011 to 2016. We correlated GHT data with dengue incidence at the national and state-level for Brazil while using the adjusted R squared statistic as primary outcome measure (0/1). We used survey data on Internet access and variables from the official census of 2010 to identify where GHT could be useful in tracking dengue dynamics. Finally, we used a standardized volatility index on dengue incidence and developed models with different variables with the same objective. Results From the 19 terms explored with GHT, only seven were able to consistently track dengue. From the 27 states, only 12 reported an adjusted R squared higher than 0.8; these states were distributed mainly in the Northeast, Southeast, and South of Brazil. The usefulness of GHT was explained by the logarithm of the number of Internet users in the last 3 months, the total population per state, and the standardized volatility index. Conclusions The potential contribution of GHT in complementing traditional established surveillance strategies should be analyzed in the context of geographical resolutions smaller than countries. For Brazil, GHT implementation should be analyzed in a case-by-case basis. State variables including total population, Internet usage in the last 3 months, and the standardized volatility index could serve as indicators determining when GHT could complement dengue state level surveillance in other countries.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model for observed under-reported incidence data

Fitting Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models to incidence data is problematic when not all infected individuals are reported. Assuming an underlying SIR model with general but known distribution for the time to recovery, this paper derives the implied differential-integral equations for observed incidence data when a fixed fraction of newly infected individuals are not observed. The parameters of the resulting system of differential equations are identifiable. Using these differential equations, we develop a stochastic model for the conditional distribution of current disease incidence given the entire past history of reported cases. We estimate the model parameters using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte-Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution. We use our model to estimate the transmission rate and fraction of asymptomatic individuals for the current Coronavirus 2019 outbreak in eight American Countries: the United States of America, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Panama, from January 2020 to May 2021. Our analysis reveals that the fraction of reported cases varies across all countries. For example, the reported incidence fraction for the United States of America varies from 0.3 to 0.6, while for Brazil it varies from 0.2 to 0.4.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The impact of climate change on Korea’s agricultural sector under the national self-sufficiency policy

Evolving environmental conditions due to climate change have brought about changes in agriculture, which is required for human life as both a source of food and income. International trade can act as a buffer against potential negative impacts of climate change on crop yields, but recent years have seen breakdowns in global trade, including export bans to improve domestic food security. For countries that rely heavily on imported food, governments may institute policies to protect their agricultural industry from changes in climate-induced crop yield changes and other countries’ potential trade restrictions. This study assesses the individual and combined effects of climate impacts and food self-sufficiency policies in Korea, which is highly dependent on imports. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a global integrated assessment model, to explore (1) the direct impact of climate change on Korea’s agricultural yields, (2) the full impacts of global climate change on agricultural production, including trade-induced changes due to yield changes in other regions, (3) the impacts of food self-sufficiency policy, and (4) the interactive impact of climate change and self-sufficiency policies. We find that, in Korea, the direct impact of climate change on agricultural yields would be overshadowed by the impact of global climate change due to changing trade patterns. Second, global climate change leads to a rise (rice and wheat) or a decline (soybeans) in Korean producer revenues, while simultaneously raising consumer expenditures on both staples and non-staples. Third, implementing self-sufficiency policies for wheat and soybeans in Korea boosts the nation’s producer revenues, in conjunction with the effects of climate change, at the cost of additional increases in consumer expenditures for both staples and non-staples.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Sequencing and analysis of 131 SARS-CoV-2 isolates in previously sampled and unsampled regions of Jordan from 2020 to 2023

The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan remains an understudied country for next generation sequencing analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected during the 2019 pandemic. Here we provide 131 additional reference genomes collected between 2020–2023 from SARS-CoV-2-positive patients across Jordan. Phylogenetic analysis supports existing pandemic narratives of changing clade dominance over time and adds genomes in novel Jordanian locations and timepoints to make Jordan SARS-CoV-2 databases more comprehensive. Samples from the less-sequenced cities of Ajloun, Jaresh, Karak, and Madaba identified previously unreported lineages while Amman, Irbid, and Zarqa have existing sequencing efforts bolstered. Despite many incomplete patient records and a relatively small sample size, we observe interesting symptom patterns that support existing global and Jordanian pandemic narratives. We note how in-country COVID-19 pandemic genomic studies showcase Jordan’s efforts to expand next generation sequencing capabilities, especially through the leveraging of EDGE COVID-19, a bioinformatics platform for performing rapid, batched analysis of SARS-CoV-2 sequencing that streamlines sample processing prepared from a network of hospital locations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Phosphorus sorption and its environmental predictors across pantropical forest soils sampled over the past decade

Tropical forest productivity is frequently constrained by soil phosphorus (P) availability, yet global Land Surface Model (LSM), which are used to simulate ecosystem processes, still represent P cycling in tropical regions only in a limited way, largely because of scarce observational data. Phosphorus adsorption and desorption of dissolved inorganic P to and from soil minerals (hereafter termed sorption), is an important process for predicting how much P is available to plants. This dataset was created to improve predictions of soil P sorption in tropical soils by identifying the isotherm equation that best describes pantropical soils. It includes raw measurements of environmental variables, such as soil properties and climate, together with P sorption data collected from 40 forest soil pits from 9 Forest Global Earth Observatory (ForestGEO) sites across 7 tropical countries during 2018-2022. The data are organized by site, country, and continent. Each site may include several soil pits. For each pit, P sorption was measured across a range of soil P concentrations to build sorption isotherm curves, typically with about 6 to 8 measurements per curve. While sorbed P varies across these concentration levels, the other environmental variables remain constant at the plot level.

Aluminum oxide↗