General solutions for the movement of storms
Diagnostic solutions are presented for the displacement velocity of a storm vortex and the velocity of the centroid of the storm's convection.
Costen, R. C.↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Comparison of high-altitude remote aircraft measurements with the radar structure of an Oklahoma thunderstorm - Implications for precipitation estimation from space
The present NASA ER-2 aircraft observations of an isolated group of thunderstorms over Oklahoma, encompassing passive radiometry in the visible, IR, and microwave portions of the spectrum obtained above the storm top, is compared with coincident data from two Doppler radars as well as aircraft-gathered in situ cloud top particle data. Reflectivity cores are found to be nearly colocated with cold anomalies in the microwave brightness temperature field. Theoretical considerations suggesting that microwave frequencies are sensitive to the deeper layer of large ice particles in the storm's convective region are supported.
Heymsfield, Gerald M.↗
Climate-induced changes in forest disturbance and vegetation
New and published climate-model results are discussed which indicate that global warming favors increased rates of forest disturbance as a result of weather more likely to cause forest fires, convective wind storms, coastal flooding, and hurricanes. New sensitivity tests carried out with a vegetation model indicate that climate-induced increases in disturbance could, in turn, significantly alter the total biomass and compositional response of forests to future warming. An increase in disturbance frequency is also likely to increase the rate at which natural vegetation responses to future climate change. The results reinforce the hypothesis that forests could be significantly altered by the first part of the next century. The modeling also confirms the potential utility of selected time series of fossil pollen data for investigating the poorly understood natural patterns of century-scale climate variability.
Overpeck, Jonathan T.↗
Modeling Ionospheric Convection During a Major Geomagnetic Storm on October 22-23, 1981
Following the passage of an interplanetary shock at approximately 0500 UT, a major geomagnetic storm developed on October 22-23, 1981. Numerous auroral substorms occurred during this storm leading to an AE index greater than 1000 nT. We have used the expanding/contracting polar cap (ECPC) model (Moses et al., 1989) and data from the Dynamics Explorer 2 spacecraft to study the ionospheric electric fields for 12 consecutive traversals of the polar regions. The ECPC model can determine the voltage drops across the dayside merging and nightside reconnection gaps. We determined the relationship of the AL index (i.e., the intensity of the westward electrojet) to the nightside reconnection potential drop. An excellent linear correlation was found between the nightside reconnection gap voltage drop and the AL index. These results show that the solar wind strongly drives the magnetosphere-ionosphere system throughout the geomagnetic storm. A substantial level of dayside merging seems to occur throughout the event. Nightside reconnection varies from satellite pass to satellite pass and within the substorm recovery phase. We find that tail reconnection is an important feature of the recovery phase of substorms.
Moses, J. J.↗
Characterizing the Relationships Among Lightning and Storm Parameters: Lightning as a Proxy Variable
We have gained important insights from prior studies that have suggested relationships between lightning and storm growth, decay, convective rain flux, vertical distribution of storm mass and echo volume in the region, and storm energetics. A study was initiated in the Summer of 1996 to determine how total (in-cloud plus ground) lightning observations might provide added knowledge to the forecaster in the determination and identification of severe thunderstorms and weather hazards in real-time. The Melbourne Weather Office was selected as a primary site to conduct this study because Melbourne is the only site in the world with continuous and open access to total lightning (LDAR) data and a Doppler (WSR-88D) radar. A Lightning Imaging Sensor Data Applications Demonstration (LISDAD) system was integrated into the forecaster's workstation during the Summer 1996 to allow the forecaster to interact in real-time with the multi-sensor data being displayed. LISDAD currently ingests LDAR data, the cloud-to-ground National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data, and the Melbourne radar data in f real-time. The interactive features provide the duty forecaster the ability to perform quick diagnostics on storm cells of interest. Upon selection of a storm cell, a pop-up box appears displaying the time-history of various storm parameters (e.g., maximum radar reflectivity, height of maximum reflectivity, echo-top height, NLDN and LDAR lightning flash rates, storm-based vertically integrated liquid water content). This product is archived to aid on detailed post-analysis.
Goodman, S. J.↗
Evolving HPC and Application Design Toward a Coupled Data Assimilation System at NASA Suitable for Emerging Exascale Platforms
The prediction capabilities of global models have continuously evolved from the traditional medium-range global weather prediction application to span scales in support of hourly prediction of convective scale storms to seasonal Earth system prediction. This evolution has increased the demands on the system infrastructure design and workflow to achieve the required performance on modern high-performance computing (HPC) platforms. The planned evolution of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) modeling and assimilation system will stress the capabilities of conventional HPC overwhelming the available compute cycles at the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in the coming 5-10 years. This has led to the re-design of key elements of the assimilation and modeling systems to achieve significant gains in performance on anticipated Exacale platforms. The transition of the assimilation system to the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI) framework has positioned GEOS to exploit new efficient algorithms for data assimilation (DA) in a fully-coupled Earth system context. The suitability of the GEOS model to leverage a domain specific language (DSL) approach and artificial intelligence (AI) is being explored to accelerate computational performance and data exchange efficiency of the coupled Earth system model. The storage and processing of large data volumes produced by these advance systems is being redesigned with a data-centric cloud-based approach. We will highlight the recent efforts in these areas and emphasize the demand for further development and re-design to achieve the science objectives in support of NASA's Earth system modeling and assimilation missions.
Putman, Bill↗
The vertical profile of radar reflectivity of convective cells: A strong indicator of storm intensity and lightning probability?
Reflectivity data from Doppler radars are used to construct vertical profiles of radar reflectivity (VPRR) of convective cells in mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in three different environmental regimes. The National Center for Atmospheric Research CP-3 and CP-4 radars are used to calculate median VPRR for MCSs in the Oklahoma-Kansas Preliminary Regional Experiment for STORM-Central in 1985. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere radar in Darwin, Australia, is used to calculate VPRR for MCSs observed both in oceanic, monsoon regimes and in continental, break period regimes during the wet seasons of 1987/88 and 1988/89. The midlatitude and tropical continental VPRRs both exhibit maximum reflectivity somewhat above the surface and have a gradual decrease in reflectivity with height above the freezing level. In sharp contrast, the tropical oceanic profile has a maximum reflectivity at the lowest level and a very rapid decrease in reflectivity with height beginning just above the freezing level. The tropical oceanic profile in the Darwin area is almost the same shape as that for two other tropical oceanic regimes, leading to the conclustion that it is characteristic. The absolute values of reflectivity in the 0 to 20 C range are compared with values in the literature thought to represent a threshold for rapid storm electrification leading to lightning, about 40 dBZ at -10 C. The large negative vertical gradient of reflectivity in this temperature range for oceanic storms is hypothesized to be a direct result of the characteristically weaker vertical velocities observed in MCSs over tropical oceans. It is proposed, as a necessary condition for rapid electrification, that a convective cell must have its updraft speed exceed some threshold value. Based upon field program data, a tentative estimate for the magnitude of this threshold is 6-7 m/s for mean speed and 10-12 m/s for peak speed.
Zipser, Edward J.↗
GOES infrared study of tornadic storms
Enhanced convection-initiated gravity waves associated with an isolated tornado in the absence of a squall line are investigated. Ray tracing computations based on data observed on May 29, 1977 indicated that the wave sources were located in north central Oklahoma. Comparison with a radar echo map during the time period when the waves were excited showed that the waves were generated by an isolated cloud with enhanced convection. GOES infrared digital data during the time period from wave excitation to tornado touchdown were analyzed. Results showed that the cloud where the gravity waves were excited was characterized by both a very low temperature at the cloud top and a very high expansion rate of the cold cloud tops area. The lead time between the excitation of the gravity waves and the tornado touchdown is discussed in conjunction with the growth rate of the clouds associated with the tornado.
Hung, R. J.↗
Structure of the Highly Sheared Tropical Storm Chantal During CAMEX -4
On 20 August 2001 during the Convection and Moisture Experiment 4 (CAMEX-4) and NOAA Hurricane Field Program (HFP2001), the NASA high-altitude ER-2 and medium-altitude DC-8, and lower-altitude NOAA P3 aircraft conducted a coordinated Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) mission focused on convection in Tropical Storm Chantal. This storm first became a depression on 14 August, a tropical storm on 17 August, and it maintained maximum winds of about 65-70 mph during 19-20 August with minimum pressures ranging from 1008 mb on 19 August to 1001 mb late on 20 August. The storm was westward moving and was forecasted to intensify and landfall near the Yucatan-Belize border late on 20 August. Chanter failed to intensify and instead exhibited a highly sheared structure with an open low-level circulation and intense convection well to the northeast of this circulation center. The NASA ER-2 and DC-8 aircraft were closely coordinated with the NOAA P3 (NOAA-42). The NASA aircraft collected remote sensing and in situ data sets, while the P3 collected lower level in situ and radar data; both the DC-8 and P3 released 7 and 24 dropsondes, respectively. These aircraft measurements provided a unique opportunity to examine the structure of a sheared system and why it did not develop as forecasted a few days earlier. This paper will describe a preliminary study of the precipitation and wind structure provided by the NASA aircraft within the context of the NOAA P3 measurements.
Heymsfield, Gerald M.↗
The Tropical Convective Spectrum: Archetypal Vertical Structures - 1
A taxonomy of tropical convective vertical structures is constructed through cluster analysis of three years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission [TRMM] Precipitation Radar [PR] vertical profiles, their surface rainfall and associated radar-based classifiers (convective/stratiform and bright band existence). archetypal profile types are identified. These include nine convective types, divided into warm, "just cold", midlevel, deep and deep/wet-growth categories, seven stratiform types, divided into warm, "just cold", midlevel and deep categories, three "mixed" types (deep profiles with low reflectivity aloft), and six fragment types (non-precipitating anvils and sheared deep convective profiles). The taxonomy allows for description of any storm or local Convective spectrum by the nine primary convective and stratiform types, a significant reduction over full three-dimensional radar data which nonetheless retains vertical structure information. The analysis provides a quasi-independent corroboration of the TRMM 2A23 convective/stratiform classification. The global frequency of occurrence and contribution to rainfall for the profile types is presented, demonstrating primary rainfall contribution by midlevel glaciated convection and similar depth decaying/stratiform stages. Close correspondence is found between deep convective profile frequency and annualized lightning production. Passive microwave and lightning properties associated with the profiles are reported, and cases presented illustrating known nonuniqueness problems with 85 and 37 GHz brightness temperature pairs (the same pairs corresponding to both convective and stratiform profiles), and how supplementary lightning information might be used to mitigate these problems.
Boccippio, Dennis J.↗
Ionospsheric observation of enhanced convection-initiated gravity waves during tornadic storms
Atmospheric gravity waves associated with tornadoes, with locally severe storms occuring with tornadoes, and with hurricanes were studied through the coupling between the ionosphere and the troposphere. Reverse group ray tracing computations of gravity waves observed by an ionospheric Doppler sounder array were analyzed. The results of ray tracing computations and comparisons between the computed location of the wave sources and with conventional meteorological data indicate that the computed sources of the waves were near the touchdown of the tornadoes, near the eye of the hurricanes, and directly on the squall line of the severe thunderstorms. The signals excited occurred one hour in advance of the tornadoes and three hours in advance of the hurricanes. Satellite photographs show convective overshooting turrets occurring at the same locations and times the gravity waves were being excited. It is suggested that gravity wave observations, conventional meteorological data, and satellite photographs be combined to develop a remote sensing technique for detecting severe storms.
Hung, R. J.↗
High-Resolution Analysis Products to Support Severe Weather and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Threat Assessments over Florida
The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) located at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) implemented an operational configuration of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS), as well as the ARPS numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Operational, high-resolution ADAS analyses have been produced from this configuration at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) over the past several years. Since that time, ADAS fields have become an integral part of forecast operations at both NWS MLB and SMG. To continue providing additional utility, the AMU has been tasked to implement visualization products to assess the potential for supercell thunderstorms and significant tornadoes, and to improve assessments of short-term cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning potential. This paper and presentation focuses on the visualization products developed by the AMU for the operational high-resolution ADAS and AR.PS at the NWS MLB and SMG. The two severe weather threat graphics implemented within ADAS/ARPS are the Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP) and Significant Tornado Parameter (SIP). The SCP was designed to identify areas with supercell thunderstorm potential through a combination of several instability and shear parameters. The SIP was designed to identify areas that favor supercells producing significant tornadoes (F2 or greater intensity) versus non-tornadic supercells. Both indices were developed by the NOAAINWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and were normalized by key threshold values based on previous studies. The indices apply only to discrete storms, not other convective modes. In a post-analysis mode, the AMU calculated SCP and SIP for graphical output using an ADAS configuration similar to the operational set-ups at NWS MLB and SMG. Graphical images from ADAS were generated every 15 minutes for 13 August 2004, the day that Hurricane Charley approached and made landfall on the Florida peninsula. Several tornadoes struck the interior of the Florida peninsula in advance of Hurricane Charley's landfall during the daylight hours of 13 August. Since SPC had previously examined this case using SCP and SIP graphics generated from output of the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model, this day served as a good benchmark to compare and validate the high-resolution ADAS graphics against the smoother RUC analyses, which serves as background fields to the ADAS analyses. The ADAS-generated SCP and STP graphics have been integrated into the suite of products examined operationally by NWS MLB forecasters and are used to provide additional guidance for assessment of the near-storm environment during convective situations.
Case, Jonathan↗
Lightning NO x in the 29–30 May 2012 Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) Severe Storm and Its Downwind Chemical Consequences
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Kenneth E. Pickering↗
Hailstorm Analyses and Detection Derived from Current and Historical Satellite Data and Convective Environmental Parameters
We seek to demonstrate the extent to which hailstorms can be detected using a combination of geostationary (GEO) visible and infrared metrics of storm intensity and convective environmental parameters from reanalysis. Hailstorm identifications from low-Earth-orbiting (LEO) passive microwave sensors and maximum expected size of hail (MESH) from ground-based radar serve as a proxy for hail events. Data are analyzed for two warm seasons over the contiguous United States (CONUS). A neural network (NN) is trained to predict hailstorm detection dependent on optimal multi-variate weighting of observed and modeled input. The NN results are then applied to a 15-year Meteosat Second Generation climatology over South Africa to depict where hailstorms are most likely to occur. We also explore the impact of GEO imager resolution on our ability to discriminate hailstorms by matching GOES-13 (4 km) and GOES-16 (2 km) storm intensity metrics against hail characteristics using LEO, MESH, and spotter reports over CONUS during 2017, when both satellites were simultaneously imaging. Such analysis allows us to assess the feasibility of assembling a severe storm climate data record back to GOES-8, in the mid-1990’s. Finer spatial resolution of GOES-16 better resolves the updraft characteristics and intensities that are inherently linked to hail formation; however, GOES-13 can be normalized to achieve comparable detection capability. When intelligently combined with model-derived convective environmental parameters, GEO-derived storm intensity metrics enable high-spatial resolution hail risk assessment at hourly intervals throughout the diurnal cycle anywhere around the world and an improved understanding of hailstorms in the climate system.
Kyle F Itterly↗
Do the Tallest Convective Cells Over the Tropical Ocean Have Slow Updrafts?
Far from continents, a few storms lift precipitation-size ice particles into the stratosphere, 17 to 18 km above the tropical ocean. This study is the first to examine the observed properties of a large sample of these extremely tall convective storm cells. The central questions in this study are whether the unusually tall ocean cells have the slow updrafts known to be typical of oceanic convection, and if so, how can these tall cells reach such extreme heights. The precipitation radar on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observed 174 extremely tall oceanic cells from 1998 to 2007. Relative updraft intensity is inferred from 17-km-tall oceanic cells having, on average, a 7-km lower 40-dBZ radar reflectivity height and an order of magnitude less lightning than do equally tall cells over the Sahel region of Africa, a region known for vigorous convective updrafts. Despite some ambiguity, the potential temperature and lapse rate of the NCEP reanalysis suggest that the environment in which these oceanic cells form is conducive to modest updrafts reaching extreme heights. Extrapolating based on the limited coverage of the TRMM satellite radar, it is likely that such extremely tall cells occur more often than once each day somewhere over the tropical ocean.
Kelley, Owen A.↗
Structure and Characteristics of Precipitation Systems Observed by TRMM
Multi-sensor measurements of total lightning (in-cloud plus cloud-to-ground) from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) aboard the TRMM satellite has been combined with passive microwave ice scattering and precipitation radar reflectivity profile information previously cataloged for precipitation features observed by TRMM. These precipitation features are defined by their surface rainfall or ice scattering signatures, with horizontal scales approx. 100 - 10000 sq km. Additionally, convective scale (approx. 100 sq km) storms are defined by the lightning data. Over the U.S. the national cloud-to-ground lightning observations are used to also determine the ratio of in-cloud to cloud-to-ground lightning, where it is hypothesized these ratios are related to the vertical profile of reflectivity and concentration of precipitation-sized ice. Combining the LIS, TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI), and Precipitation Radar (PR) for these storms allows investigation of the convective structures and convective regimes leading to observed lightning, scattering, and reflectivity signatures. Application of this approach to a global, multi-year data set (1998-2000) furthers our understanding of convective processes in different climatological regimes. The figure shows the distribution of high flash rate storms.
Goodman, Steve↗
Mesoscale characteristics of monsoonal convection and associated stratiform precipitation
Observations undertaken on 12 January 1990 at Darwin (Australia) are used to document the structure of a monsoonal rainband in a low convective available potential energy low-shear tropical environment. Dual-Doppler radar analyses are employed to investigate the structure and kinematics of the convective and stratiform regions. A system with the characteristics of a relatively short-lived squall line in which warm rain processes play a significant role in the production of precipitation is evident. Planetary boundary layer cold-pool production is important in the organization and motion of the system. A trailing stratiform region is evident with a mean updraft-downdraft circulation, but is composed of in situ decaying convective cells. A storm-relative mesoscale cyclonic circulation is also observed within the stratiform cloud. This vortex was maintained by thermodynamically induced midlevel convergence, convectively generated storm-scale circulations, and their interaction with the background monsoon flow.
Keenan, Thomas D.↗