Results for “Confidence” — Page 13

NASA NTRS1987

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for select space propulsion system structural components

The objective is the development of several modular structural analysis packages capable of predicting the probabilistic response distribution for key structural variables such as maximum stress, natural frequencies, transient response, etc. The structural analysis packages are to include stochastic modeling of loads, material properties, geometry (tolerances), and boundary conditions. The solution is to be in terms of the cumulative probability of exceedance distribution (CDF) and confidence bounds. Two methods of probability modeling are to be included as well as three types of structural models - probabilistic finite-element method (PFEM); probabilistic approximate analysis methods (PAAM); and probabilistic boundary element methods (PBEM). The purpose in doing probabilistic structural analysis is to provide the designer with a more realistic ability to assess the importance of uncertainty in the response of a high performance structure. Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method (PSAM) tools will estimate structural safety and reliability, while providing the engineer with information on the confidence that should be given to the predicted behavior. Perhaps most critically, the PSAM results will directly provide information on the sensitivity of the design response to those variables which are seen to be uncertain.

Cruse, T. A.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Ground test of large flexible structures

Many future mission models require large space (LSS) which have accurate surfaces and/or the capability of being accurately aligned. If ground test approaches which will provide adequate confidence of the structrual performance to the program managers are not developed, many viable structural concepts may never be utilized. The size and flexibility of many of the structural concepts will preclude the use of the current ground test methods because of the adverse effects of the terrestrial environment. The challenge is to develop new test approaches which will provide confidence in the capability of LSS to meet performance requirements prior to flight. The activities on ground testing of LSS are described. Since some of the proposed structural systems cannot be tested in entirety, a coordinated ground test analytical model program is required to predict structural performance in space. Several concepts of ground testing under development are addressed.

Wada, Ben K.↗

NASA NTRS1986

The ortho/para ratio of water vapor in Comet Halley

The ortho/para ratio of H2O is shown to be an invariant in the cometary coma. The dependence of ortho-para ratio on temperature in thermal equilibrium is given, and the nuclear-spin-temperature is defined. Its relation to the physical temperature of the cometary ices is discussed, and the prospects for using the observed ortho/para ratio to infer properties of the cometary nucleus are explored. The ortho/para ratio in Halley's comet is derived from high resolution infrared spectra of near 2.7 microns wavelength. On UT December 24.1, 1985 it was 2.73 + or - 0.17, and on UT March 22.7, 1986 it was 3.23 + or - 0.37. The nuclear-spin-temperature was 35 K (+9 K, -5 K) pre-perihelion, and less than 40 K post-perihelion, at the 67% confidence limit. Both numbers are consistent with modeled values of the equilibrium temperature of the cometary nucleus at aphelion (47 K). However, at the 95% confidence limit they are also fully consistent with temperatures less than 50 K, corresponding to an ortho/para ratio of about 3.0.

Mumma, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRS1987

System architecture of a gallium arsenide one-gigahertz digital IC tester

The design for a 1-GHz digital integrated circuit tester for the evaluation of custom GaAs chips and subsystems is discussed. Technology-related problems affecting the design of a GaAs computer are discussed, with emphasis on the problems introduced by long printed-circuit-board interconnect. High-speed interface modules provide a link between the low-speed microprocessor and the chip under test. Memory-multiplexer and memory-shift register architectures for the storage of test vectors are described in addition to an architecture for local data storage consisting of a long chain of GaAs shift registers. The tester is constructed around a VME system card cage and backplane, and very little high-speed interconnect exists between boards. The tester has a three part self-test consisting of a CPU board confidence test, a main memory confidence test, and a high-speed interface module functional test.

Fouts, Douglas J.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Remote sensing of submerged aquatic vegetation in lower Chesapeake Bay - A comparison of Landsat MSS to TM imagery

Landsat MSS and TM imagery, obtained simultaneously over Guinea Marsh, VA, as analyzed and compares for its ability to detect submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). An unsupervised clustering algorithm was applied to each image, where the input classification parameters are defined as functions of apparent sensor noise. Class confidence and accuracy were computed for all water areas by comparing the classified images, pixel-by-pixel, to rasterized SAV distributions derived from color aerial photography. To illustrate the effect of water depth on classification error, areas of depth greater than 1.9 m were masked, and class confidence and accuracy recalculated. A single-scattering radiative-transfer model is used to illustrate how percent canopy cover and water depth affect the volume reflectance from a water column containing SAV. For a submerged canopy that is morphologically and optically similar to Zostera marina inhabiting Lower Chesapeake Bay, dense canopies may be isolated by masking optically deep water. For less dense canopies, the effect of increasing water depth is to increase the apparent percent crown cover, which may result in classification error.

Ackleson, S. G.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Measurements of the gas temperature and iron abundance distribution in the Coma Cluster

The medium energy X-ray detectors onboard the EXOSAT Observatory have been used to determine the gas temperature at several positions in the Coma Cluster of galaxies. Evidence is found at greater than 95 percent confidence for a higher temperature in the center of the cluster than in a position approximately 45 arcmin off-center. No difference in iron abundance is observed between the center and off-center regions and the equilibrium model for the distribution of elements in the Coma Cluster of Abramopoulos, Chanan, and Ku can be rejected with greater than 99.5 percent confidence, in favor of a model with more uniform composition. A phenomenological model is presented of the Coma Cluster, which is consistent with the data presented here, as well as the imaging data from the Einstein Observatory and the Tenma X-ray spectrum. The model has a central isothermal region of temperature about 9 keV extending to about 25 arcmin (about 1 Mpc). Beyond this radius the temperature falls as a polytrope with index about 1.6.

Hughes, John P.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Markov chains for testing redundant software

A preliminary design for a validation experiment has been developed that addresses several problems unique to assuring the extremely high quality of multiple-version programs in process-control software. The procedure uses Markov chains to model the error states of the multiple version programs. The programs are observed during simulated process-control testing, and estimates are obtained for the transition probabilities between the states of the Markov chain. The experimental Markov chain model is then expanded into a reliability model that takes into account the inertia of the system being controlled. The reliability of the multiple version software is computed from this reliability model at a given confidence level using confidence intervals obtained for the transition probabilities during the experiment. An example demonstrating the method is provided.

White, Allan L.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods for select space propulsion system structural components (PSAM)

The objective is the development of several modular structural analysis packages capable of predicting the probabilistic response distribution for key structural variables such as maximum stress, natural frequencies, transient response, etc. The structural analysis packages are to include stochastic modeling of loads, material properties, geometry (tolerances), and boundary conditions. The solution is to be in terms of the cumulative probability of exceedance distribution (CDF) and confidence bounds. Two methods of probability modeling are to be included as well as three types of structural models - probabilistic finite-element method (PFEM); probabilistic approximate analysis methods (PAAM); and probabilistic boundary element methods (PBEM). The purpose in doing probabilistic structural analysis is to provide the designer with a more realistic ability to assess the importance of uncertainty in the response of a high performance structure. Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method (PSAM) tools will estimate structural safety and reliability, while providing the engineer with information on the confidence that should be given to the predicted behavior. Perhaps most critically, the PSAM results will directly provide information on the sensitivity of the design response to those variables which are seen to be uncertain.

Cruse, T. A.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Calculation of Weibull strength parameters and Batdorf flow-density constants for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics

The calculation of shape and scale parameters of the two-parameter Weibull distribution is described using the least-squares analysis and maximum likelihood methods for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics with complete and censored samples. Detailed procedures are given for evaluating 90 percent confidence intervals for maximum likelihood estimates of shape and scale parameters, the unbiased estimates of the shape parameters, and the Weibull mean values and corresponding standard deviations. Furthermore, the necessary steps are described for detecting outliers and for calculating the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit statistics and 90 percent confidence bands about the Weibull distribution. It also shows how to calculate the Batdorf flaw-density constants by uing the Weibull distribution statistical parameters. The techniques described were verified with several example problems, from the open literature, and were coded. The techniques described were verified with several example problems from the open literature, and were coded in the Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation (SCARE) design program.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Determination of longitudinal aerodynamic derivatives using flight data from an icing research aircraft

A flight test was performed with the NASA Lewis Research Center's DH-6 icing research aircraft. The purpose was to employ a flight test procedure and data analysis method, to determine the accuracy with which the effects of ice on aircraft stability and control could be measured. For simplicity, flight testing was restricted to the short period longitudinal mode. Two flights were flown in a clean (baseline) configuration, and two flights were flown with simulated horizontal tail ice. Forty-five repeat doublet maneuvers were performed in each of four test configurations, at a given trim speed, to determine the ensemble variation of the estimated stability and control derivatives. Additional maneuvers were also performed in each configuration, to determine the variation in the longitudinal derivative estimates over a wide range of trim speeds. Stability and control derivatives were estimated by a Modified Stepwise Regression (MSR) technique. A measure of the confidence in the derivative estimates was obtained by comparing the standard error for the ensemble of repeat maneuvers, to the average of the estimated standard errors predicted by the MSR program. A multiplicative relationship was determined between the ensemble standard error, and the averaged program standard errors. In addition, a 95 percent confidence interval analysis was performed for the elevator effectiveness estimates, C sub m sub delta e. This analysis identified the speed range where changes in C sub m sub delta e could be attributed to icing effects. The magnitude of icing effects on the derivative estimates were strongly dependent on flight speed and aircraft wing flap configuration. With wing flaps up, the estimated derivatives were degraded most at lower speeds corresponding to that configuration. With wing flaps extended to 10 degrees, the estimated derivatives were degraded most at the higher corresponding speeds. The effects of icing on the changes in longitudinal stability and control derivatives were adequately determined by the flight test procedure and the MSR analysis method discussed herein.

Ranaudo, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Use of inelastic strain as a basis for analyzing thermomechanical test data

It was shown that the proposed data analysis method, based on inelastic strain-time response, can be used effectively to represent cyclic response at elevated temperatures for Hastelloy-X. A high level of confidence in this method was built by making comparisons of the experimental and fitted data in two forms. Because of this level of confidence, the analysis was taken one step further and inelastic strain rates were calculated from the derivatives of the fit equations.

Bartolotta, P. A.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Expert system development methodology and the transition from prototyping to operations: FIESTA, a case study

A major barrier in taking expert systems from prototype to operational status involves instilling end user confidence in the operational system. The software of different life cycle models is examined and the advantages and disadvantages of each when applied to expert system development are explored. The Fault Isolation Expert System for Tracking and data relay satellite system Applications (FIESTA) is presented as a case study of development of an expert system. The end user confidence necessary for operational use of this system is accentuated by the fact that it will handle real-time data in a secure environment, allowing little tolerance for errors. How FIESTA is dealing with transition problems as it moves from an off-line standalone prototype to an on-line real-time system is discussed.

Happell, Nadine↗

NASA NTRS1989

Determination of longitudinal aerodynamic derivatives using flight data from an icing research aircraft

A flight test was performed with the NASA Lewis Research Center's DH-6 icing research aircraft. The purpose was to employ a flight test procedure and data analysis method, to determine the accuracy with which the effects of ice on aircraft stability and control could be measured. For simplicity, flight testing was restricted to the short period longitudinal mode. Two flights were flown in a clean (baseline) configuration, and two flights were flown with simulated horizontal tail ice. Forty-five repeat doublet maneuvers were performed in each of four test configurations, at a given trim speed, to determine the ensemble variation of the estimated stability and control derivatives. Additional maneuvers were also performed in each configuration, to determine the variation in the longitudinal derivative estimates over a wide range of trim speeds. Stability and control derivatives were estimated by a Modified Stepwise Regression (MSR) technique. A measure of the confidence in the derivative estimates was obtained by comparing the standard error for the ensemble of repeat maneuvers, to the average of the estimated standard errors predicted by the MSR program. A multiplicative relationship was determined between the ensemble standard error, and the averaged program standard errors. In addition, a 95 percent confidence interval analysis was performed for the elevator effectiveness estimates, C sub m sub delta e. This analysis identified the speed range where changes in C sub m sub delta e could be attributed to icing effects. The magnitude of icing effects on the derivative estimates were strongly dependent on flight speed and aircraft wing flap configuration. With wing flaps up, the estimated derivatives were degraded most at lower speeds corresponding to that configuration. With wing flaps extended to 10 degrees, the estimated derivatives were degraded most at the higher corresponding speeds. The effects of icing on the changes in longitudinal stability and control derivat

Ranaudo, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Smart built-in test

The work which built-in test (BIT) is asked to perform in today's electronic systems increases with every insertion of new technology or introduction of tighter performance criteria. Yet the basic purpose remains unchanged -- to determine with high confidence the operational capability of that equipment. Achievement of this level of BIT performance requires the management and assimilation of a large amount of data, both realtime and historical. Smart BIT has taken advantage of advanced techniques from the field of artificial intelligence (AI) in order to meet these demands. The Smart BIT approach enhances traditional functional BIT by utilizing AI techniques to incorporate environmental stress data, temporal BIT information and maintenance data, and realtime BIT reports into an integrated test methodology for increased BIT effectiveness and confidence levels. Future research in this area will incorporate onboard fault-logging of BIT output, stress data and Smart BIT decision criteria in support of a singular, integrated and complete test and maintenance capability. The state of this research is described along with a discussion of directions for future development.

Richards, Dale W.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Design of ceramic components with the NASA/CARES computer program

The ceramics analysis and reliability evaluation of structures (CARES) computer program is described. The primary function of the code is to calculate the fast-fracture reliability or failure probability of macro-scopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings, such as those found in heat engine applications. CARES uses results from MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS finite-element analysis programs to evaluate how inherent surface and/or volume type flaws component reliability. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effects of multiaxial stress states on material strength. The principle of independent action (PIA) and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or uniform uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for a single or multiple failure modes by using a least-squares analysis or a maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-to-fit-tests, 90 percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters, and Kanofsky-Srinivasan 90 percent confidence band values are also provided. Examples are provided to illustrate the various features of CARES.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Reliability growth modeling analysis of the space shuttle main engines based upon the Weibull process

The Weibull process, identified as the inhomogeneous Poisson process with the Weibull intensity function, is used to model the reliability growth assessment of the space shuttle main engine test and flight failure data. Additional tables of percentage-point probabilities for several different values of the confidence coefficient have been generated for setting (1-alpha)100-percent two sided confidence interval estimates on the mean time between failures. The tabled data pertain to two cases: (1) time-terminated testing, and (2) failure-terminated testing. The critical values of the three test statistics, namely Cramer-von Mises, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and chi-square, were calculated and tabled for use in the goodness of fit tests for the engine reliability data. Numerical results are presented for five different groupings of the engine data that reflect the actual response to the failures.

Wheeler, J. T.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES). Users and programmers manual

This manual describes how to use the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES) computer program. The primary function of the code is to calculate the fast fracture reliability or failure probability of macroscopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings, such as those found in heat engine applications. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effect of multiaxial stress states on material strength. The principle of independent action (PIA) and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or unifrom uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for single or multiple failure modes by using the least-square analysis or the maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit tests, ninety percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters, and Kanofsky-Srinivasan ninety percent confidence band values are also provided. The probabilistic fast-fracture theories used in CARES, along with the input and output for CARES, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various feature of the program are also included. This manual describes the MSC/NASTRAN version of the CARES program.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Expert system development methodology and the transition from prototyping to operations - Fiesta, a case study

A major barrier in taking expert systems from prototype to operational status involves instilling end user confidence in the operational system. The software of different life cycle models is examined and the advantages and disadvantages of each when applied to expert system development are explored. The Fault Isolation Expert System for Tracking and data relay satellite system Applications (FIESTA) is presented as a case study of development of an expert system. The end user confidence necessary for operational use of this system is accentuated by the fact that it will handle real-time data in a secure environment, allowing little tolerance for errors. How FIESTA is dealing with transition problems as it moves from an off-line standalone prototype to an on-line real-time system is discussed.

Happell, Nadine↗