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At least 235 records · Page 13

A Reduced-form Cost Model for Prefeasibility Analysis of Hydropower at Non-Powered Dams

This study presents a reduced-form model to support a better understanding of the capacity potential and drivers of costs for hydropower development at U.S. non-powered dams (NPD), which are existing dams that are not currently used for hydropower. With information on nineteen reference sites, a set of reduced-form design and cost equations were estimated to enable rapid assessments of aggregate costs and their components for a large number of NPD sites. The model was then applied to 36,000+ potential U.S. NPD sites using the limited data commonly available. Although the cost estimates span a wide range, there exists a significant amount of U.S. NPD hydropower capacity potential, which are considered cost-competitive in the current market using baseline technologies.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Recommended conventions for reporting results from direct dark matter searches

Abstract The field of dark matter detection is a highly visible and highly competitive one. In this paper, we propose recommendations for presenting dark matter direct detection results particularly suited for weak-scale dark matter searches, although we believe the spirit of the recommendations can apply more broadly to searches for other dark matter candidates, such as very light dark matter or axions. To translate experimental data into a final published result, direct detection collaborations must make a series of choices in their analysis, ranging from how to model astrophysical parameters to how to make statistical inferences based on observed data. While many collaborations follow a standard set of recommendations in some areas, for example the expected flux of dark matter particles (to a large degree based on a paper from Lewin and Smith in 1995), in other areas, particularly in statistical inference, they have taken different approaches, often from result to result by the same collaboration. We set out a number of recommendations on how to apply the now commonly used Profile Likelihood Ratio method to direct detection data. In addition, updated recommendations for the Standard Halo Model astrophysical parameters and relevant neutrino fluxes are provided. The authors of this note include members of the DAMIC, DarkSide, DARWIN, DEAP, LZ, NEWS-G, PandaX, PICO, SBC, SENSEI, SuperCDMS, and XENON collaborations, and these collaborations provided input to the recommendations laid out here. Wide-spread adoption of these recommendations will make it easier to compare and combine future dark matter results.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Aerodynamic Data Fusion Toward the Digital Twin Paradigm

This paper considers the fusion of two aerodynamic data sets originating from differing types of physical or computer experiments. This paper specifically addresses the fusion of 1) noisy and in-complete fields from wind-tunnel measurements and 2) deterministic but biased fields from numerical simulations. These two data sources are fused in order to estimate the true field that best matches measured quantities that serve as the ground truth. For example, two sources of pressure fields about an aircraft are fused based on measured forces and moments from a wind-tunnel experiment. A fundamental challenge in this problem is that the true field is unknown and cannot be estimated with 100% certainty. A Bayesian framework is employed to infer the true fields conditioned on measured quantities of interest; essentially a statistical correction to the data is performed. The fused data may then be used to construct more accurate surrogate models suitable for early stages of aerospace design. An extension of the proper orthogonal decomposition with constraints is also introduced to solve the same problem. In this work, both methods are demonstrated on fusing the pressure distributions for flow past the RAE2822 airfoil and the Common Research Model wing at transonic conditions. Comparison of both methods reveals that the Bayesian method is more robust when data are scarce and capable of also accounting for uncertainties in the data. Furthermore, given adequate data, the proper-orthogonal-decomposition-based and Bayesian approaches lead to surprisingly similar results.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Open Source Suite for Advanced Synchrophasor Analysis

The report presents the results of the development of the open-source suite of applications for synchrophasor analysis. The suite includes several software tools for oscillation analysis, power plant model validation, and frequency response analysis using synchrophasor measurements. All tools are based on the common framework and data sources. The developed tools have been used by different electrical utilities for synchrophasor analysis. The report includes several use cases based on the actual system PMU data.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

A Statistical Interpolation Code for Ocean Analysis and Forecasting

Abstract We present a data assimilation package for use with ocean circulation models in analysis, forecasting, and system evaluation applications. The basic functionality of the package is centered on a multivariate linear statistical estimation for a given predicted/background ocean state, observations, and error statistics. Novel features of the package include support for multiple covariance models, and the solution of the least squares normal equations either using the covariance matrix or its inverse—the information matrix. The main focus of this paper, however, is on the solution of the analysis equations using the information matrix, which offers several advantages for solving large problems efficiently. Details of the parameterization of the inverse covariance using Markov random fields are provided and its relationship to finite-difference discretizations of diffusion equations are pointed out. The package can assimilate a variety of observation types from both remote sensing and in situ platforms. The performance of the data assimilation methodology implemented in the package is demonstrated with a yearlong global ocean hindcast with a 1/4° ocean model. The code is implemented in modern Fortran, supports distributed memory, shared memory, multicore architectures, and uses climate and forecasts compliant Network Common Data Form for input/output. The package is freely available with an open source license from www.tendral.com/tsis/ .

Srinivasan, Ashwanth↗

W-Band ARM Scanning Cloud Radar (WSACR) 2nd Generation CF-Radial Spectral Data, Vertically-Pointing Scan, Cross-Polarization Model (a1)

ARM's scanning cloud radars are fully coherent dual-frequency, dual-polarization Doppler radars mounted on a common scanning pedestal. Each pedestal includes a Ka-band radar (2kW peak power) and the deployment location determines whether the second radar is a W-band (WSACR; 1.7 kW peak power) or X-band (XSACR; 20 kW peak power). Beamwidths at Ka and W bands are roughly matched at 0.3 degrees. Due to the narrow antenna beamwidth, ARM’s scanning cloud radars use scanning strategies that are unlike typical weather radars. Rather than focusing on plan position indicator, or PPI, scans, the Ka-SACR uses range height indicator, or RHI, scans at numerous azimuths to obtain cloud volume data. Measurements collected with the W-SACR are copolar and cross-polar radar reflectivity, Doppler velocity, spectra width and spectra when not scanning, and linear depolarization ration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A broad-host-range event detector: expanding and quantifying performance between Escherichia coli and Pseudomonas species

Modern microbial biodesign relies on the principle that well-characterized genetic parts can be reused and reconfigured for different functions. However, this paradigm has only been successful in a limited set of hosts, mostly comprised from common lab strains of Escherichia coli . It is clear that new applications such as chemical sensing and event logging in complex environments will benefit from new host chassis. This study quantitatively compared how the same chemical event logger performed across four strains and three different microbial species. An integrase-based sensor and memory device was operated by two representative soil Pseudomonads— Pseudomonas fluorescens SBW25 and Pseudomonas putida DSM 291. Quantitative comparisons were made between these two non-traditional hosts and two benchmark E. coli chassis including the probiotic Nissle 1917 and common cloning strain DH5α. The performance of sensor and memory components changed according to each host, such that a clear chassis effect was observed and quantified. These results were obtained via fluorescence from reporter proteins that were transcriptionally fused to the integrase and downstream recombinant region and via data-driven kinetic models. The Pseudomonads proved to be acceptable chassis for the operation of this event logger, which outperformed the common E. coli DH5α in many ways. This study advances an emerging frontier in synthetic biology that aims to build broad-host-range devices and understand the context by which different species can execute programmable genetic operations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Review of Onsite Temperature and Solar Forecasting Models to Enable Better Building Design and Operations

Advanced building controls and energy optimization for new constructions and retrofits rely on accurate weather data. Traditionally, most studies utilize airport weather information as the decision inputs. However, most buildings are in environments that are quite different than those at the airport miles away. Tree cover, adjacent buildings, and micro-climate effects caused by the larger surrounding area can all yield deviations in air temperature, humidity, solar irradiance, and wind that are large enough to influence design and operation decisions. In order to overcome this challenge, there are many prior studies on developing weather forecasting algorithms from micro-to meso-scales. Additionally, this paper reviews and complies knowledge on common weather data resources, data processing methodologies and forecasting techniques of weather information. Commonly used statistical, machine learning and physical-based models are discussed and presented as two major categories: deterministic forecasting and probabilistic forecasting. Finally, evaluation metrics for forecasting errors are listed and discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Predicting wind-driven spatial deposition through simulated color images using deep autoencoders

Abstract For centuries, scientists have observed nature to understand the laws that govern the physical world. The traditional process of turning observations into physical understanding is slow. Imperfect models are constructed and tested to explain relationships in data. Powerful new algorithms can enable computers to learn physics by observing images and videos. Inspired by this idea, instead of training machine learning models using physical quantities, we used images, that is, pixel information. For this work, and as a proof of concept, the physics of interest are wind-driven spatial patterns. These phenomena include features in Aeolian dunes and volcanic ash deposition, wildfire smoke, and air pollution plumes. We use computer model simulations of spatial deposition patterns to approximate images from a hypothetical imaging device whose outputs are red, green, and blue (RGB) color images with channel values ranging from 0 to 255. In this paper, we explore deep convolutional neural network-based autoencoders to exploit relationships in wind-driven spatial patterns, which commonly occur in geosciences, and reduce their dimensionality. Reducing the data dimension size with an encoder enables training deep, fully connected neural network models linking geographic and meteorological scalar input quantities to the encoded space. Once this is achieved, full spatial patterns are reconstructed using the decoder. We demonstrate this approach on images of spatial deposition from a pollution source, where the encoder compresses the dimensionality to 0.02% of the original size, and the full predictive model performance on test data achieves a normalized root mean squared error of 8%, a figure of merit in space of 94% and a precision-recall area under the curve of 0.93.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Residential Building Energy Efficiency Field Studies: Low-Rise Multifamily

In recent years, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has conducted a series of research studies to validate energy efficient building technologies in the field. Much of the work has focused on single-family construction, and some has also addressed commercial energy codes. The work detailed in this DOE-funded study (EE0007616) focuses on low-rise multifamily buildings (three stories or fewer above grade) in various regions of the United States, and reports on how state-level building codes are being implemented, both in terms of observed characteristics and also in terms of estimated energy impacts. Nearly 100 buildings across four states—Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington—were sampled, which represent a range of climate types from mild temperature to very cold continental. Both common entry and outdoor entry buildings were included, and a parallel research project evaluated envelope air tightness and current still-evolving air tightness testing methods. Finally, a set of structured interviews of building designers and other relevant professionals was carried to out to gain more insight into this market. To the greatest extent possible, the methodology developed under the project for low-rise multifamily buildings mirrored the approach established by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for single-family residential buildings (https://www.energy.gov/eere/buildings/downloads/residential-building-energy-code-field-study). This included the general approach to sampling, recruitment, and data collection, as well as data analysis and presentation. The range of permitting dates for the sites encompassed two energy code cycles in most regions. All states in the study had adopted a variation of the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) for the structure of their state code. The low-rise multifamily occupancy presents a hybrid building type: most of the building’s conditioned floor area was covered by the residential chapter of the code while portions of the building (such as corridors and common spaces) fell under the commercial code chapter. The key items assessed in this work were: Building Shell—exterior wall insulation, ceiling insulation, foundation insulation, windows. Common Areas—HVAC and lighting. Living Units—lighting, ventilation. A few items were not assessed in detail, given their relative paucity in this occupancy type; these included duct leakage, pipe insulation, and hot water circulation controls. Building characteristics were collected via a combination of architectural, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing plan reviews and field inspections, and entered into a spreadsheet-based tool that was later queried to build a database. Data went through quality control both upon arrival and via a later semi-automated review and assurance process. Most of the data are presented graphically so that the reader can quickly assess compliance with the applicable energy codes (both by state and by code year). As a final step, EnergyPlus™ simulations were created for all buildings in the study to estimate both the as-found energy use intensity (EUI) and the energy and CO 2 that could be saved if features that were found to not meet code minimums were brought up to code. The savings estimates were tabulated for each of the four states in the study. The research team found that the single-family approach was largely applicable to low-rise multifamily buildings. This applies to both the data collection and the prototype EUI analysis. Most of the occupied space is living units and falls under residential energy codes, and many characteristics use similar envelope construction and relatively straightforward mechanical systems and lighting. One of the most challenging aspects of this work was to build an effective spreadsheet-based data collection instrument that could allow efficient collection of both building plan and field data. The research team is of the view that other methods could be equally effective if the work is done carefully with diligent quality control. The primary findings for the work center around the thermal envelope and mechanical systems and lighting at the sites: For thermal envelope components, the majority of buildings met or were better than the prescriptive code.This suggests that building designers and builders are aware of code requirements. In some cases, surveyed buildings were designed to qualify for energy efficiency certification programs. These buildings made up at least 20% of sampled buildings in each state. Almost all buildings met mechanical system efficiency requirements (for both living units and common areas). In some cases, sites employed systems that were considerably more efficient than required by the applicable energy code. Dwelling units had a majority of high-efficacy lighting, often in excess of the state’s residential code requirements. While high-efficacy fixtures were also typical in common areas (corridors and stairwells), lighting power densities (LPDs) in these areas were sometimes higher than levels dictated by the applicable part of the state commercial energy code. The simulation models run on a series of low-rise multifamily prototypes, informed by a composite of the field data collected, calculated annual EUIs of between 20 and 50 kBtu/ft2-yr, with the range representing the effects of both building characteristics and building location (climate zone). A detailed process (based on simulations of prototype buildings) was used to estimate the amount of avoided energy use that would occur if 100% adherence to energy codes were attained. The results indicated modest savings are attainable for items such as window thermal performance and common area lighting. The result is overall only a modest potential for additional energy savings, averaging about 10% of EUI.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Impact of Time-Aware Design Choices in ICS Anomaly Detection

Industrial control systems (ICS) remain vulnerable to increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks, yet evaluating anomaly detection models in these environments is challenging due to temporal dependencies, missing-not-at-random patterns, and extremely imbalanced datasets. These factors make common practices—especially random data splits and na¨ıve imputation— prone to severe temporal leakage, which can inflate reported performance and obscure real-world limitations. In this work, we systematically examine classical machine learning models, temporal deep learning architecture, and tensordecomposition– based methods on a gas-pipeline dataset using a fully temporally separated evaluation pipeline designed to mimic realistic deployment conditions. Our findings show that proper temporal handling and MNAR-aware preprocessing significantly alter the relative performance of popular anomaly-detection methods, providing practical guidance for designing reliable, leakage-resistant ICS intrusion-detection systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Sensor selection and tool wear prediction with data‐driven models for precision machining

Abstract Estimation of tool wear in precision machining is vital in the traditional subtractive machining industry to reduce processing cost, improve manufacturing efficiency and product quality. In this vein, fusion of time and frequency‐domain features of commonly sensed signals can provide an early indication of tool wear and improve its prediction accuracy for prognostics and health management. This paper presents a data‐driven methodology and a complete tool chain for the inference of precision machining tool wear from fused machine measurements, such as cutting force, power, audio and vibration signals, and quantify the usefulness of each measurement. Indicators of tool wear are extracted from time‐domain signal statistics, frequency‐domain analysis, and time‐frequency domain analysis. Correlation coefficients between the extracted features (indicators) and the tool wear are used to select the most informative features. Principal Component Analysis and Partial Least‐Squares are used to reduce the dimensionality of the feature space. Regression models, including linear regression, support vector regression, Decision tree regression, neural network regression and Gaussian process regression, are used to predict the tool wear using data from a Haas milling machine performing spiral boss face milling. The performance of the regression models based on subsets of sensors validates the preliminary estimates about the saliency of the sensors. The experimental results show that the proposed methods can predict the machine tool wear precisely, with readily available sensor measurements. Neural network and Gaussian process regression were able to achieve good estimates of tool wear at different machine operating conditions. The most informative signal in predicting tool wear was shown to be the vibration signal. Time‐frequency domain features were the most informative features among the combination of features of three domains. In addition, using partial least squares components extracted from the original features of signals led to higher prediction accuracy.

Han, Seulki↗

PyOECP: A flexible open-source software for the measurement and modeling of the dielectric spectrum from the reflection coefficient

We present PyOECP, a Python-based flexible open-source software for estimating and modeling the complex permittivity obtained from the open-ended coaxial probe (OECP) technique. The transformation of the measured reflection coefficient to complex permittivity is performed based on two different models, including the capacitance model and the antenna model. The software library contains dielectric spectra of common reference liquids, which can be used to transform the reflection coefficient into the dielectric spectra. Several Python routines that are commonly employed (e.g., SciPy and NumPy) are only required so that the users can alter the software structure depending on their needs. The modeling algorithm exploits the Markov chain Monte Carlo method for the data regression. The discrete relaxation models can be built by a proper combination of well-known relaxation models. In addition to these models, the electrode polarization, which is a common measurement artifact for interpreting the dielectric spectra, can be incorporated in the modeling algorithm. A continuous relaxation model, which solves the Fredholm integral equation of the first kind (a mathematically ill-posed problem) is also included.

Yoon, Tae-Jun↗

CORAL: A framework for rigorous self-validated data modeling and integrative, reproducible data analysis

Abstract Background Many organizations face challenges in managing and analyzing data, especially when relevant datasets arise from multiple sources and methods. Analyzing heterogeneous datasets and additional derived data requires rigorous tracking of their interrelationships and provenance. This task has long been a Grand Challenge of data science and has more recently been formalized in the FAIR principles: that all data objects be Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable, both for machines and for people. Adherence to these principles is necessary for proper stewardship of information, for testing regulatory compliance, for measuring the efficiency of processes, and for facilitating reuse of data-analytical frameworks. Findings We present the Contextual Ontology-based Repository Analysis Library (CORAL), a platform that greatly facilitates adherence to all 4 of the FAIR principles, including the especially difficult challenge of making heterogeneous datasets Interoperable and Reusable across all parts of a large, long-lasting organization. To achieve this, CORAL's data model requires that data generators extensively document the context for all data, and our tools maintain that context throughout the entire analysis pipeline. CORAL also features a web interface for data generators to upload and explore data, as well as a Jupyter notebook interface for data analysts, both backed by a common API. Conclusions CORAL enables organizations to build FAIR data types on the fly as they are needed, avoiding the expense of bespoke data modeling. CORAL provides a uniquely powerful platform to enable integrative cross-dataset analyses, generating deeper insights than are possible using traditional analysis tools.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Causal CCF Parameter Estimations 2020

This report documents the quantitative results of the causal common-cause failure (CCF) parameter estimations for the failure cause groups “component,” “design,” “environment,” “human,” and “other,” based on CCF data through 2020 in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) CCF database: https://rads.inl.gov/Pages/CCF.aspx. This report utilizes the same data period (2006–2020) and CCF templates as INL/EXT-21-62940, Revision 1, CCF Parameter Estimations, 2020 Update. The 2015 causal CCF prior distributions for the specific failure cause groups (instead of the 2015 generic CCF prior distributions) were used in this report to estimate the associated causal CCF parameters. All the 2015 causal CCF prior distributions and generic CCF prior distributions were developed in INL/EXT-21-43723, Developing Generic Prior Distributions for Common Cause Failure Alpha Factors and Causal Alpha Factors, using CCF data from 1997 to 2015. These quantitative results were developed to support the causal alpha factor model and should be used as appropriate in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies such as the NRC Significance Determination Process for commercial nuclear power plants in the United States.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

A filter-dependent granular temperature model from large-scale CFD-DEM data

The computational study of strongly-coupled, gas–solid flows at scales relevant to most environmental and engineering applications requires the use of ‘coarse-grained’ methodologies such as the two-fluid model, particle-in-cell approach or the multiphase Reynolds Averaged Navier–Stokes equations. While these strategies enable computations at desirable length- and time-scales, they rely heavily on models to capture important flow physics that occur at scales smaller than the mesh. To date, the models that do exist are based on a limited set of flow conditions, such as very dilute particle phase. To this end, we leverage a large-scale repository of CFD-DEM data to develop filter-size dependent models for the mean variance in particle volume fraction, a quantity commonly used to assess the degree of clustering, and the granular temperature, a key quantity for accurately predicting gas–solid flows. In conclusion, because of its filter-size dependence, the granular temperature model can be directly translated to coarse-grained approaches and tied directly to grid size.

AMReX↗

Tunable plasmon-enhanced second-order optical nonlinearity in transition-metal dichalcogenide nanotriangles (Final Report for SC0008712)

The control of light-matter interaction at the nanoscale is a grand challenge that cuts across modern photonics, plasmonics, and optoelectronics. The development of simulation tools for predictive modeling of nanostructured light emitters and absorbers is critical to successfully tackling this grand challenge. Existing state-of-the-art tools are not suitable for the following reasons: a) Phenomenological models of materials, commonly employed in the full-wave solutions to Maxwell’s equations, are fit to experimental data for bulk materials and fall short when attempting to analyze nanostructures. b) Nonlinearities in optical response can arise solely from nanostructuring, and require time-dependent quantum electronic transport techniques to capture. c) Emergent materials with exotic and tunable physical properties are increasingly used, but their properties are very sensitive to the substrate, impurities, and edge termination, and require an accurate description of interband and intraband processes, as well as dissipation. d) Microscopic modeling of electronic transport usually employs simplified electrodynamics, and realistic models that couple full electronic transport with full-wave electrodynamics are needed for accurate photonics simulations. The objective of this project was to computational tools that will overcome the limitations faced by current modeling tools and provide an unprecedented level of accuracy for predictive modeling of light-matter interaction at the nanoscale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Future Atmospheric Rivers and Impacts on Precipitation: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 High–Resolution Global Warming Experiment

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow synoptic scale weather features important for Earth’s hydrological cycle typically transporting water vapor poleward, delivering precipitation important for local climates. Understanding ARs in a warming climate is problematic because the AR response to climate change is tied to how the feature is defined. The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) provides insights into this problem by comparing 16 atmospheric river detection tools (ARDTs) to a common data set consisting of high resolution climate change simulations from a global atmospheric general circulation model. ARDTs mostly show increases in frequency and intensity, but the scale of the response is largely dependent on algorithmic criteria. Across ARDTs, bulk characteristics suggest intensity and spatial footprint are inversely correlated, and most focus regions experience increases in precipitation volume coming from extreme ARs. The spread of the AR precipitation response under climate change is large and dependent on ARDT selection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗