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NASA NTRS1984

Climate studies with a multilayer energy balance model. III - Climatic impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosols

A multilayer energy balance model is applied in an examination of the sensitivity of climate to stratospheric aerosols induced by volcanic eruptions. Zonally and annually averaged quantities are considered, with ocean and land temperatures computed separately and the atmosphere below the 200 mb level divided into eight layers of 24 sublayers each. The aerosol is assumed to form in the 150-200 mb range. Aerosol parameters for radiative transfer calculations are reflection in the solar spectral region and absorption in the solar and IR regions. A 75 percent aqueous solution of sulfuric acid is assumed for the aerosols. The sensitivity of the hemispherically averaged surface temperature is enhanced 37 percent, with a 20 percent uncertainty, when the thermal IR radiation is excluded. The solar radiation enhances the surface temperatures to a higher degree than the thermal radiation. The maximum response to the evenly distributed aerosols is in the 60-70 deg N latitudes and propagates, weakening, to lower latitudes.

Chou, M.-D.↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Response of Phanerozoic Surface Temperature to Variations in Atmospheric Oxygen Concentration

Recently, Poulsen et al. (2015) suggested that O2 has played a major role in climate forcing during the Phanerozoic. Specifically, they argued that decreased O2 levels during the Cenomanian stage of the middle Cretaceous (94–100 Ma) could help explain the extremely warm climate during that time. The postulated warming mechanism involves decreased Rayleigh scattering by a thinner atmosphere, which reduces the planetary albedo and allows greater surface warming. This warming effect is then amplified by cloud feedbacks within their 3-D climate model. This increase in shortwave surface forcing, in their calculations, exceeds any decrease in the greenhouse effect caused by decreased O2. Here we use a 1-D radiative-convective climate model (with no cloud feedback) to check their results. We also include a self-consistent calculation of the change in atmospheric ozone and its effect on climate. Our results are opposite to those of Poulsen et al.: we find that the climate warms by 1.4 K at 35% O2 concentrations as a result of increased pressure broadening of CO2 and H2O absorption lines and cools by 0.8 K at 10% O2 as a result of decreased pressure broadening. The surface temperature changes are only about 1 K either way, though, for reasonable variations in Phanerozoic O2 concentrations (10%–35% by volume). Hence, it seems unlikely that changes in atmospheric O2 account for the warm climate of the Cenomanian. Other factors, such as a higher-than-expected sensitivity of climate to increased CO2 concentrations, may be required to obtain agreement with the paleoclimate data.

Atmospheric O2 levels↗

NASA NTRS2013

Model Sensitivity to North Atlantic Freshwater Forcing at 8.2 Ka

We compared four simulations of the 8.2 ka event to assess climate model sensitivity and skill in responding to North Atlantic freshwater perturbations. All of the simulations used the same freshwater forcing, 2.5 Sv for one year, applied to either the Hudson Bay (northeastern Canada) or Labrador Sea (between Canada's Labrador coast and Greenland). This freshwater pulse induced a decadal-mean slowdown of 10-25%in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of the models and caused a large-scale pattern of climate anomalies that matched proxy evidence for cooling in the Northern Hemisphere and a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The multi-model ensemble generated temperature anomalies that were just half as large as those from quantitative proxy reconstructions, however. Also, the duration of AMOC and climate anomalies in three of the simulations was only several decades, significantly shorter than the duration of approx.150 yr in the paleoclimate record. Possible reasons for these discrepancies include incorrect representation of the early Holocene climate and ocean state in the North Atlantic and uncertainties in the freshwater forcing estimates.

simulation↗

NASA NTRS1990

Feedback Processes and Climate Response

The response of the climate system to an external perturbation--e.g., a change in solar irradiance or a change in atmospheric opacity due to an increase in CO2--depends rather strongly on feedback processes in the system, which either amplify or dampen the effects of the initial perturbation. A simple representation of the climate system is used to compare several important feedbacks, based upon general circulation model (GCM) simulations by various investigators. The models are in general agreement with respect to water vapor feedback, but in wide disagreement with respect to cloud feedback. Because of the arguments raised by Lindzen (1990)--that the processes which determine water vapor mixing ratio in the upper atmosphere are quite different from those which operate in the planetary boundary layer, and that upper tropospheric water vapor might actually decrease even when the boundary layer is getting warmer and more moist--researchers undertook a study to determine the sensitivity of climate to changes in water vapor at various levels in the troposphere. The result is that climate is just as sensitive to percentage changes in upper tropospheric water vapor, where the mixing ratio is very small, as it is to percentage changes in the boundary layer, which contains the bulk of total column water vapor.

Arking, Albert↗

NASA NTRS2000

Arctic Ocean

The Arctic Ocean is the smallest of the Earth's four major oceans, covering 14x10(exp 6) sq km located entirely within the Arctic Circle (66 deg 33 min N). It is a major player in the climate of the north polar region and has a variable sea ice cover that tends to increase its sensitivity to climate change. Its temperature, salinity, and ice cover have all undergone changes in the past several decades, although it is uncertain whether these predominantly reflect long-term trends, oscillations within the system, or natural variability. Major changes include a warming and expansion of the Atlantic layer, at depths of 200-900 m, a warming of the upper ocean in the Beaufort Sea, a considerable thinning (perhaps as high as 40%) of the sea ice cover, a lesser and uneven retreat of the ice cover (averaging approximately 3% per decade), and a mixed pattern of salinity increases and decreases.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Spectral Profiler Probe for In Situ Snow Grain Size and Composition Stratigraphy

An ultimate goal of the climate change, snow science, and hydrology communities is to measure snow water equivalent (SWE) from satellite measurements. Seasonal SWE is highly sensitive to climate change and provides fresh water for much of the world population. Snowmelt from mountainous regions represents the dominant water source for 60 million people in the United States and over one billion people globally. Determination of snow grain sizes comprising mountain snowpack is critical for predicting snow meltwater runoff, understanding physical properties and radiation balance, and providing necessary input for interpreting satellite measurements. Both microwave emission and radar backscatter from the snow are dominated by the snow grain size stratigraphy. As a result, retrieval algorithms for measuring snow water equivalents from orbiting satellites is largely hindered by inadequate knowledge of grain size.

Berisford, Daniel F.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Analysis of Present Day and Future OH and Methane Lifetime in the ACCMIP Simulations

Results from simulations performed for the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) are analysed to examine how OH and methane lifetime may change from present day to the future, under different climate and emissions scenarios. Present day (2000) mean tropospheric chemical lifetime derived from the ACCMIP multi-model mean is 9.8+/-1.6 yr (9.3+/-0.9 yr when only including selected models), lower than a recent observationally-based estimate, but with a similar range to previous multi-model estimates. Future model projections are based on the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and the results also exhibit a large range. Decreases in global methane lifetime of 4.5 +/- 9.1% are simulated for the scenario with lowest radiative forcing by 2100 (RCP 2.6), while increases of 8.5+/-10.4% are simulated for the scenario with highest radiative forcing (RCP 8.5). In this scenario, the key driver of the evolution of OH and methane lifetime is methane itself, since its concentration more than doubles by 2100 and it consumes much of the OH that exists in the troposphere. Stratospheric ozone recovery, which drives tropospheric OH decreases through photolysis modifications, also plays a partial role. In the other scenarios, where methane changes are less drastic, the interplay between various competing drivers leads to smaller and more diverse OH and methane lifetime responses, which are difficult to attribute. For all scenarios, regional OH changes are even more variable, with the most robust feature being the large decreases over the remote oceans in RCP8.5. Through a regression analysis, we suggest that differences in emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds and in the simulation of photolysis rates may be the main factors causing the differences in simulated present day OH and methane lifetime. Diversity in predicted changes between present day and future OH was found to be associated more strongly with differences in modelled temperature and stratospheric ozone changes. Finally, through perturbation experiments we calculated an OH feedback factor (F) of 1.24 from present day conditions (1.50 from 2100 RCP8.5 conditions) and a climate feedback on methane lifetime of 0.33+-0.13 yr/K, on average. Models that did not include interactive stratospheric ozone effects on photolysis showed a stronger sensitivity to climate, as they did not account for negative effects of climate-driven stratospheric ozone recovery on tropospheric OH, which would have partly offset the overall OH/methane lifetime response to climate change.

atmospheric composition↗

NASA NTRS2023

Sensitivity of the MAR Regional Climate Model Snowpack to the Parameterization of the Assimilation of Satellite-Derived Wet-Snow Masks on the Antarctic Peninsula

Both regional climate models (RCMs) and remote sensing (RS) data are essential tools in understanding the response of polar regions to climate change. RCMs can simulate how certain climate variables, such as surface melt, runoff and snowfall, are likely to change in response to different climate scenarios but are subject to biases and errors. RS data can assist in reducing and quantifying model uncertainties by providing indirect observations of the modeled variables on the present climate. In this work, we improve on an existing scheme to assimilate RS wet snow occurrence data with the “Modèle Atmosphérique Régional” (MAR) RCM and investigate the sensitivity of the RCM to the parameters of the scheme. The assimilation is performed by nudging the MAR snowpack temperature to match the presence of liquid water observed by satellites. The sensitivity of the assimilation method is tested by modifying parameters such as the depth to which the MAR snowpack is warmed or cooled, the quantity of water required to qualify a MAR pixel as “wet” (0.1 % or 0.2 % of the snowpack mass being water), and assimilating different RS datasets. Data assimilation is carried out on the Antarctic Peninsula for the 2019–2021 period. The results show an increase in meltwater production (+66.7 % on average, or +95 Gt), along with a small decrease in surface mass balance (SMB) (−4.5 % on average, or −20 Gt) for the 2019–2020 melt season after assimilation. The model is sensitive to the tested parameters, albeit with varying orders of magnitude. The prescribed warming depth has a larger impact on the resulting surface melt production than the liquid water content (LWC) threshold due to strong refreezing occurring within the top layers of the snowpack. The values tested for the LWC threshold are lower than the LWC for typical melt days (approximately 1.2 %) and impact results mainly at the beginning and end of the melting period. The assimilation method will allow for the estimation of uncertainty in MAR meltwater production and will enable the identification of potential issues in modeling near-surface snowpack processes, paving the way for more accurate simulations of snow processes in model projections.

regional climate models↗

NASA NTRS2016

GC23G-1310: Investigation Into the Effects of Climate Variability and Land Cover Change on the Hydrologic System of the Lower Mekong Basin

The Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) is an economically and ecologically important region that experiences hydrologic hazards such as floods and droughts, which can directly affect human well-being and limit economic growth and development. To effectively develop long-term plans for addressing hydrologic hazards, the regional hydrological response to climate variability and land cover change needs to be evaluated. This research aims to investigate how climate variability, specifically variations in the precipitation regime, and land cover change will affect hydrologic parameters both spatially and temporally within the LMB. The research goal is achieved by (1) modeling land cover change for a baseline land cover change scenario as well as changes in land cover with increases in forest or agriculture and (2) using projected climate variables and modeled land cover data as inputs into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to simulate the changes to the hydrologic system. The VIC model outputs were analyzed against historic values to understand the relative contribution of climate variability and land cover to change, where these changes occur, and to what degree these changes affect the hydrology. This study found that the LMB hydrologic system is more sensitive to climate variability than land cover change. On average, climate variability was found to increase discharge and evapotranspiration (ET) while decreasing water storage. The change in land cover show that increasing forest area will slightly decrease discharge and increase ET while increasing agriculture area increases discharge and decreases ET. These findings will help the LMB by supporting individual country policy to plan for future hydrologic changes as well as policy for the basin as a whole.

Hydrology↗

NASA NTRS1994

Possible implications of global climate change on global lightning distributions and frequencies

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) is used to study the possible implications of past and future climate change on global lightning frequencies. Two climate change experiments were conducted: one for a 2 x CO2 climate (representing a 4.2 degs C global warming) and one for a 2% decrease in the solar constant (representing a 5.9 degs C global cooling). The results suggest at 30% increase in global lightning activity for the warmer climate and a 24% decrease in global lightning activity for the colder climate. This implies an approximate 5-6% change in global lightning frequencies for every 1 degs C global warming/cooling. Both intracloud and cloud-to-ground frequencies are modeled, with cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies showing larger sensitivity to climate change than intracloud frequencies. The magnitude of the modeled lightning changes depends on season, location, and even time of day.

Price, Colin↗

NASA NTRS2011

Climate Change Impacts on North Dakota: Agriculture and Hydrology

North Dakota is one of the principal producers of agricultural commodities in the USA, including over half of the total spring wheat production. While the region includes some of the best agricultural lands in the world, the steep temperature and precipitation gradients also make it one of the most sensitive to climate change. Over the 20th century, both the temperature and the pattern of precipitation in the state have changed; one of the most dramatic examples of the consequences of this change is the Devils Lake flooding. In two studies, we estimated the climate change impacts on crop yields and on the hydrology of the Devils Lake basin. The projections of six GCMs, driven by three SRES scenarios were statistically downscaled for multiple locations throughout the state, for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s climate. Averaged over all GCMs, there is a small increase in precipitation, by 0.6 - 1.1% in 2020s, 3.1 - 3.5% in 2050s, and 3.0 - 7.6% in 2080s. This change in precipitation varies with the seasons, with cold seasons becoming wetter and warm seasons not changing.

FROM↗

NASA NTRS2022

Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to Past and Future Climate Change

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) contains the vast majority of Earth’s glacier ice (~52 metres sea-level equivalent), but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. However, some regions of the EAIS have lost mass over recent decades, prompting the need to re-evaluate its sensitivity to climate change. Here we review the EAIS’s response to past warm periods, synthesise current observations of change, and evaluate future projections. Some marine-based catchments that underwent significant mass loss during past warm periods are currently losing mass, but most projections indicate increased accumulation across the EAIS over the 21st Century, keeping the ice sheet broadly in balance. Beyond 2100, high emissions scenarios generate increased ice discharge and potentially several metres of sea-level rise within just a few centuries, but substantial mass loss could be averted if the Paris Agreement to limit warming below 2°C is satisfied.

Antarctic↗

NASA NTRS2022

Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to Past and Future Climate Change

East Antarctic Ice Sheet↗

NASA NTRS2022

Disturbances in North American Boreal Forest and Arctic Tundra: Impacts, Interactions, and Responses

Ecosystems in the North American Arctic-Boreal Zone (ABZ) experience a diverse set of disturbances associated with wildfire, permafrost dynamics, geomorphic processes, insect outbreaks and pathogens, extreme weather events, and human activity. Climate warming in the ABZ is occurring at over twice the rate of the global average, and as a result the extent, frequency, and severity of these disturbances are increasing rapidly. Disturbances in the ABZ span a wide gradient of spatiotemporal scales and have varying impacts on ecosystem properties and function. However, many ABZ disturbances are relatively understudied and have different sensitivities to climate and trajectories of recovery, resulting in considerable uncertainty in the impacts of climate warming and human land use on ABZ vegetation dynamics and in the interactions between disturbance types. Here we review the current knowledge of ABZ disturbances and their precursors, ecosystem impacts, temporal frequencies, spatial extents, and severity. We also summarize current knowledge of interactions and feedbacks among ABZ disturbances and characterize typical trajectories of vegetation loss and recovery in response to ecosystem disturbance using satellite time-series. We conclude with a summary of critical data and knowledge gaps and identify priorities for future study.

high-latitude↗

NASA NTRS2000

Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

Evidence on a broad range of time scales, from Proterozoic to the most recent periods, shows that the Earth's climate responds sensitively to global forcings. In the past few decades the Earth's surface has warmed rapidly, apparently in response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The conventional view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate in the 21st century. I will describe an alternate scenario that would slow the rate of global warming and reduce the danger of dramatic climate change. But reliable prediction of future climate change requires improved knowledge of the carbon cycle and global observations that allow interpretation of ongoing climate change.

Hansen, James E.↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Biosphere: A Decadal Vision

This paper focuses on biosphere-climate interactions including the influences of human activities. Recognizing this is only one aspect of biospheric processes, this places an emphasis of those biogeochemical processes that have a profound effect on numerous other aspects of the biosphere and the services it provides, services which are critical to sustaining life on Earth. And, the paper will focus on the various scientific aspects of assessing the availability of fresh water, including its sensitivity to climate variance and land use changes. Finally, this paper hopes to emphasize the potential role that greatly expanded space observations and interactive modeling can play in developing our understanding of Earth and its the living systems.

Peterson, David L.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Climate Change-Induced Peatland Drying in Southeast Asia

When organic peat soils are sufficiently dry, they become flammable. In Southeast Asian peatlands, widespread deforestation and associated drainage create dry conditions that, when coupled with El Niño-driven drought, result in catastrophic fire events that release large amounts of carbon and deadly smoke to the atmosphere. While the effects of anthropogenic degradation on peat moisture and fire risk have been extensively demonstrated, climate change impacts to peat flammability are poorly understood. These impacts are likely to be mediated primarily through changes in soil moisture. Here, we used neural networks (trained on data from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive satellite) to model soil moisture as a function of climate, degradation, and location. The neural networks were forced with regional climate model projections for 1985–2005 and 2040–2060 climate under RCP8.5 forcing to predict changes in soil moisture. We find that reduced precipitation and increased evaporative demand will lead to median soil moisture decreases about half as strong as those observed during recent El Niño droughts in 2015 and 2019. Based on previous studies, such reductions may be expected to accelerate peat carbon emissions. Our results also suggest that soil moisture in degraded areas with less tree cover may be more sensitive to climate change than in other land use types, motivating urgent peatland restoration. Climate change may play an important role in future soil moisture regimes and by extension, future peat fire in Southeast Asian peatlands.

VIIRS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving the Representation of Land Surface Processes using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART)

The land surface is a critical part of the earth system as processes related to water, carbon, energy and nitrogen cycling have important implications for climate forcing, air quality, water availability and seasonal atmospheric forecasting. Despite advances in land surface modeling, land surface model performance is often limited because of errors related to initial and boundary conditions, model structure, and parameters. Data assimilation (DA) techniques combined with an expanding network of earth system observations present an opportunity to reduce these errors and improve simulations. Here we apply an Ensemble Kalman Filter DA system as part of the Data Assimilation Research Testbed to a variety of land surface simulations. First, we describe the use of remotely sensed biomass observations to provide improved simulations of plant phenology, carbon and water cycling for regions highly sensitive to climate change (Western US, China, and Arctic). We discuss approaches to account for systemic biases between models and observations, including the use of spatially-varying adaptive ensemble inflation as an alternative approach to re-scaling soil moisture observations. Finally, we discuss a strategy to incorporate complementary observations (snow water equivalent, solar-induced fluorescence) to better constrain the representation of carbon and water cycling across complex terrain.

DART↗