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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2011

Simulating the impacts of climate change, prices and population on California’s residential electricity consumption

This study simulates the impacts of higher temperatures resulting from anthropogenic climate change on residential electricity consumption for California. Flexible temperature response functions are estimated by climate zone, which allow for differential effects of days in different temperature bins on households electricity consumption. The estimation uses a comprehensive household level dataset of electricity bills for California's three investor-owned utilities (Pacific Gas and Electric, San Diego Gas and Electric, and Southern California Edison). The results suggest that the temperature response varies greatly across climate zones. Simulation results using a downscaled version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research global circulation model suggest that holding population constant, total consumption for the households considered may increase by up to 55% by the end of the century. The study further simulates the impacts of higher electricity prices and different scenarios of population growth. Finally, simulations were conducted consistent with higher adoption of cooling equipment in areas which are not yet saturated, as well as gains in efficiency due to aggressive energy efficiency policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy storage in combined gas-electric energy transitions models: The case of California

California’s vision for a net-zero future by 2045 relies heavily on variable renewable energy systems. Thus, energy storage - particularly long-duration storage - could play a fundamental role in reliably supplying low-carbon electricity. We study energy storage using the BRIDGES model, a combined gas-electric capacity expansion model for California across multiple investment periods (2025-2045), modeled with progressively decreasing carbon emission targets to a zero emissions by 2045. This least-cost optimization model includes renewable gas production via power-to-gas, long-term storage of energy in gaseous form, electric energy storage such as through batteries and hydrogen storage, and renewable energy generation, all with capacity tracking and investment. Multiple scenarios are evaluated to examine the sensitivity of the optimal storage portfolio to system-level and sector-level parameters. The scenario results show that all electric energy storage systems - which vary in storage duration - are deployed and required in a net-zero California in 2045, amounting to around 75 GW of storage capacity. Lithium ion systems make up approximately 80% of this power capacity and supply most short-run storage needs. Hydrogen storage - in the form of a power-to-gas-to-power system - emerges as a replacement to conventional natural gas storage, comprising most of the total energy storage capacity (~ 4 TWh). This capacity is less than 5% of the current natural gas storage capacity (94 TWh), indicating sufficient room for repurposing part of the gas infrastructure. A demand-side sensitivity analysis proves that higher electricity demand correlates with more builds of Li-ion batteries, while higher industrial heat demand leads to more builds of long-duration storage systems in a net-zero economy. Furthermore, power-to-gas systems satisfy part of the industrial heat demand by locally supplying renewable gas, which overtakes the traditional centralized gas storage and transfers through pipelines, casting significant doubts on the future of the large-scale gas infrastructure.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Cr(VI) Occurrence and Geochemistry in Water From Public-Supply Wells in California

Hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), in 918 wells sampled throughout California between 2004 and 2012 by the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment Program—Priority Basin Project (GAMA—PBP) ranged from less than the study reporting limit (SRL) of 1 microgram per liter (μg/L) to 32 μg/L. Statewide, Cr(VI) was reported in 31 percent of sampled wells and equaled or exceeded the recently established (2014) California Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) for Cr(VI) of 10 μg/L in 4 percent of sampled wells. Cr(VI) data collected for regulatory purposes overestimate Cr(VI) occurrence. Ninety percent of chromium was present as Cr(VI), which was detected more frequently and at higher concentrations in alkaline (pH > 8), oxic water, and more frequently in agricultural and urban land uses compared to native land uses. Chemical, isotopic (tritium and carbon-14), and noble-gas data show high Cr(VI) in water from wells in alluvial aquifers in the southern California deserts result from long groundwater-residence times and geochemical reactions such as silicate weathering that increase pH, while oxic conditions persist. High Cr(VI) in water from wells in alluvial aquifers along the west-side of the Central Valley results from high-chromium abundance in source rock eroded to form those aquifers, and areal recharge processes (including irrigation return) that mobilize chromium from the unsaturated zone. Cr(VI) co-occurred with oxyanions having similar chemistry, including vanadium, selenium, and uranium. Cr(VI) was positively correlated with nitrate, consistent with increased concentrations in areas of agricultural land use and mobilization of chromium from the unsaturated zone by irrigation return.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2011

Impact of California’s air pollution laws on black carbon and their implications for direct radiative forcing

We examine the temporal and the spatial trends in the concentrations of black carbon (BC) - recorded by the IMPROVE monitoring network for the past 20 years - in California. Annual average BC concentrations in California have decreased by about 50% from 0.46 11g m-3 in 1989 to 0.24 11 gm-3 in 2008 compared to the corresponding reductions in diesel BC emissions (also about 50%) from a peak of 0.013 Tg Yr -1 in 1990 to 0.006 Tg Tr -1 by 2008. We attribute the observed negative trends to the reduction in vehicular emissions due to stringent statewide regulations. Our conclusion that the reduction in diesel emissions is a primary cause of the observed BC reduction is also substantiated by a significant decrease in the ratio of BC to non-BC aerosols. The absorption efficiency of aerosols at visible wavelengths - determined from the observed scattering coefficient and the observed BC - also decreased by about 50% leading to a model-inferred negative direct radiative forcing (a cooling effect) of -1.4 w m-2 (±60%) over California.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

A longitudinal study of ventilation rates in California office buildings and self-reported occupant outcomes including respiratory illness absence

Limited evidence has associated lower ventilation rates (VRs) in offices with higher illness-related absence rates. We studied spaces in office buildings, selected without knowledge of their VRs, in three California climate zones. In each study space, real-time logging sensors measured carbon dioxide and thermal parameters for one year. Web-based surveys every three months collected data on occupants’ health outcomes. Using multivariate models, relationships were assessed between CO 2 concentrations, or VRs estimated from CO 2 , and adverse occupant outcomes including respiratory infections and illness absences. For all outcomes, positive associations were hypothesized with higher CO 2 levels (and negative associations with higher VRs). Low survey response limited sample size and study power. In the 16 study spaces, CO 2 concentrations were uniformly low over the year, and most estimated VRs ranged from twice to nine times the California office minimum VR standard (7 L/s or 15 cfm per person). Primary CO 2 and VR metrics had no statistically significant relationships with occupant outcomes. Within the observed range of uniformly low CO 2 and high VRs (mostly 16–42 L/s per person), little variation in contaminant concentrations would be expected, which would explain lack of relationships with occupant outcomes. These high VRs resulted partly from frequently used energy-saving “economizer” cycles in moderate California climates, but VRs at other times also substantially exceeded required VRs. These findings suggest, consistent with theory, that within a higher VR range, increased VRs do not reduce respiratory illness. Further studies are needed to better characterize such relationships.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Placental biomarkers of PAH exposure and glutathione-S-transferase biotransformation enzymes in an obstetric population from Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico

Environmental exposures along the US-Mexico border have the potential to adversely affect the maternal-fetal environment. The purpose of this study was to assess placental biomarkers of environmental exposures in an obstetric population at the California-Baja California border in relation to detoxifying enzymes in the placenta and nutritional status. This study was conducted on consenting, full-term, obstetric patients (n=54), delivering in a hospital in Tijuana, Baja California (BC), Mexico. Placental polyaromatic hydrocarbon (PAH)-DNA adducts were measured in addition to placental glutathione-S-transferase (GST) activity and genotype, maternal serum folate, and maternal and umbilical cord blood lead and cadmium levels. A questionnaire was administered to the mothers to determine maternal occupation in a maquiladora, other exposures, and obstetric indicators. In univariate analysis, maternal serum folate levels were inversely correlated with total PAH-DNA adducts (rho=−0.375, p=0.007); adduct #1 (rho=−0.388, p=0.005); and adduct #3 (rho =−0.430, p=0.002). Maternal lead levels were significantly positively correlated with cord blood lead levels (rho=0.512, p<0.001). Cadmium levels were generally very low but significantly higher in mothers exposed to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) (either at work or at home, n=10). In multivariate analysis, only maternal serum folate levels remained as a significant negative predictor of total DNA-PAH adducts levels in placenta. These findings affirm that placental tissue is a valuable and readily available source of human tissue for biomonitoring; and indicate that further study of the role of nutrition in detoxification and mitigation of environmental exposures in pregnant women is warranted. - Highlights: • Maternal-fetal environment susceptible to toxic exposures at US-Mexico border. • Lower serum folate was correlated with higher PAH-DNA adduct levels at birth. • Placental DNA adducts in GST mu (-) cord blood were higher than GST(+) genotype. • Blood lead levels in Mexican women were higher than reported to NHANES. • Cadmium levels in mothers exposed to ETS correlated with total PAH-DNA adducts.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

The relative influence of climate and housing development on current and projected future fire patterns and structure loss across three California landscapes

Climate and land use patterns are expected to change dramatically in the coming century, raising concern about their effects on wildfire patterns and subsequent impacts to human communities. The relative influence of climate versus land use on fires and their impacts, however, remains unclear, particularly given the substantial geographical variability in fire-prone places like California. Here, we developed a modeling framework to compare the importance of climatic and human variables for explaining fire patterns and structure loss for three diverse California landscapes, then projected future large fire and structure loss probability under two different climate (hot-dry or warm-wet) and two different land use (rural or urban residential growth) scenarios. The relative importance of climate and housing pattern varied across regions and according to fire size or whether the model was for large fires or structure loss. The differing strengths of these relationships, in addition to differences in the nature and magnitude of projected climate or land use change, dictated the extent to which large fires or structure loss were projected to change in the future. Despite this variability, housing and human infrastructure were consistently more responsible for explaining fire ignitions and structure loss probability, whereas climate, topography, and fuel variables were more important for explaining large fire patterns. For all study areas, most structure loss occurred in areas with low housing density (from 0.08 to 2.01 units/ha), and expansion of rural residential land use increased structure loss probability in the future. Regardless of future climate scenario, large fire probability was only projected to increase in the northern and interior parts of the state, whereas climate change had no projected impact on fire probability in southern California. Given the variation in fire-climate relationships and land use effects, policy and management decision-making should be customized for specific geographical regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Composition, Emissions, and Air Quality Impacts of Hazardous Air Pollutants in Unburned Natural Gas from Residential Stoves in California

The presence of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) entrained in end-use natural gas (NG) is an understudied source of human health risks. We performed trace gas analyses on 185 unburned NG samples collected from 159 unique residential NG stoves across seven geographic regions in California. Our analyses commonly detected 12 HAPs with significant variability across region and gas utility. Mean regional benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and total xylenes (BTEX) concentrations in end-use NG ranged from 1.6–25 ppmv–benzene alone was detected in 99% of samples, and mean concentrations ranged from 0.7–12 ppmv (max: 66 ppmv). By applying previously reported NG and methane emission rates throughout California’s transmission, storage, and distribution systems, we estimated statewide benzene emissions of 4,200 (95% CI: 1,800–9,700) kg yr –1 that are currently not included in any statewide inventories–equal to the annual benzene emissions from nearly 60,000 light-duty gasoline vehicles. Additionally, we found that NG leakage from stoves and ovens while not in use can result in indoor benzene concentrations that can exceed the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment 8-h Reference Exposure Level of 0.94 ppbv–benzene concentrations comparable to environmental tobacco smoke. This study supports the need to further improve our understanding of leaked downstream NG as a source of health risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Inverse Estimation of an Annual Cycle of California's Nitrous Oxide Emissions

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a potent long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) and the strongest current emissions of global anthropogenic stratospheric ozone depletion weighted by its ozone depletion potential. In California, N 2 O is the third largest contributor to the state's anthropogenic GHG emission inventory, though no study has quantified its statewide annual emissions through top-down inverse modeling. Here we present the first annual (2013–2014) statewide top-down estimates of anthropogenic N 2 O emissions. Utilizing continuous N 2 O observations from six sites across California in a hierarchical Bayesian inversion, we estimate that annual anthropogenic emissions are 1.5–2.5 times (at 95% confidence) the state inventory (41 Gg N 2 O in 2014). Without mitigation, this estimate represents 4–7% of total GHG emissions assuming that other reported GHG emissions are reasonably correct. This suggests that control of N 2 O could be an important component in meeting California's emission reduction goals of 40% and 80% below 1990 levels of the total GHG emissions (in CO 2 equivalent) by 2030 and 2050, respectively. Finally, our seasonality analysis suggests that emissions are similar across seasons within posterior uncertainties. Future work is needed to provide source attribution for subregions and further characterization of seasonal variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

How Much Water Is Evaporated Across California? A Multiyear Assessment Using a Biophysical Model Forced With Satellite Remote Sensing Data

Abstract California is expected to experience great spatial/temporal variations evaporation. These variations arise from strong north‐south, east‐west gradients in rainfall and vegetation, strong interannual variability in rainfall (±30%) and strong seasonal variability in the supply and demand for moisture. We used the Breathing Earth System Simulator to evaluate the rates and sums of evaporation across California, over the 2001–2017 period. Breathing Earth System Simulator is a bottom‐up, biophysical model that couples subroutines that calculate the surface energy balance, photosynthesis, and stomatal conductance. The model is forced with high‐resolution remote sensing data (1 km).The questions we address are as follows: How much water is evaporated across the natural and managed ecosystems of California? How much does evaporation vary during the booms and busts in annual rainfall? and Is evaporation increasing with time due to a warming climate? Mean annual evaporation, averaged over the 2001–2017 period, was relatively steady (393 ± 21 mm/year) given the high interannual variation in precipitation (519 ± 140 mm/year). No significant trend in evaporation at the statewide level was detected over this time period, despite a background of a warming climate. Irrigated agricultural crops and orchards, at 1‐km scale, use less water than inferred estimates for individual fields. This leaves the potential for sharing water, a scarce resource, more equitably among competing stakeholders, for example, farms, fish, people, and ecosystems.

Baldocchi, Dennis↗
DOE OSTI2021

Atmospheric Rivers Impacting Northern California Exhibit a Quasi-Decadal Frequency

Periods of water surplus and deficit in Northern California follow a pronounced quasi-decadal cycle. This cycle is largely driven by the frequency of atmospheric rivers (ARs), affecting the region’s wet and dry periods. Our analyses demonstrate that the quasi-decadal cycle of AR frequency relies on moisture transport associated with the position and intensity of the Aleutian Low. In observations, the Aleutian Low is shown to covary with tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. A modeling experiment, which incorporates ocean observations from the equatorial Pacific into the fully coupled climate model, provides support that the quasi-decadal cycle of the Aleutian Low is forced by the tropical Pacific. Subsequently, the tropical Pacific modulates the wet season moisture transport toward California on decadal time scales, affecting AR frequency. These results provide metrics for improving interannual-to-decadal prediction of AR activity, which drives hydrological cycles in Northern California.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate-Driven Limits to Future Carbon Storage in California's Wildland Ecosystems

Enhanced ecosystem carbon storage is a key component of many climate mitigation pathways. The State of California has set an ambitious goal of carbon neutrality by 2045, relying in part on enhanced carbon sequestration in natural and working lands. We used statistical modeling, including random forest and climate analog approaches, to explore the climate-driven challenges and uncertainties associated with the goal of long-term carbon sequestration in forests and shrublands. We found that seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation are strong controllers of the spatial distribution of aboveground live carbon. RCP8.5 projections of temperature and precipitation are estimated to drive decreases of 16.1% ± 7.5% in aboveground live carbon by the end of the century, with coastal areas of central and northern California and low/mid-elevation mountain areas being most vulnerable. With RCP4.5 projections, declines are less severe, with 8.8% ± 5.3% carbon loss. In either scenario, increases in temperature systematically cause biomass declines, and the spread of projected precipitation across 32 CMIP5 models contributes to substantial uncertainty in the magnitude of that decline. Projected changes in the environmental niche for the 20 most biomass-dominant tree species revealed widespread replacement of conifers by oak species in low elevation regions of central and northern California, with a corresponding decline in carbon storage depending on expected migration rates. The spatial patterns of vulnerability we identify may allow policymakers to assess where carbon sequestration in aboveground biomass is an appropriate part of a climate mitigation portfolio, and where future climate-driven carbon losses may be a liability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Temporal Trends of Racial and Socioeconomic Disparities in Population Exposures to Upstream Oil and Gas Development in California

People living near oil and gas development are exposed to multiple environmental stressors that pose health risks. Some studies suggest these risks are higher for racially and socioeconomically marginalized people, which may be partly attributable to disparities in exposures. We examined whether racially and socioeconomically marginalized people in California are disproportionately exposed to oil and gas wells and associated hazards. We longitudinally assessed exposure to wells during three time periods (2005–2009, 2010–2014, and 2015–2019) using sociodemographic data at the census block group‐level. For each block group and time period, we assessed exposure to new, active, retired, and plugged wells, and cumulative production volume. We calculated risk ratios to determine whether marginalized people disproportionately resided near wells (within 1 km). Averaged across the three time periods, we estimated that 1.1 million Californians (3.0%) lived within 1 km of active wells. Nearly 9 million Californians (22.9%) lived within 1 km of plugged wells. The proportion of Black residents near active wells was 42%–49% higher than the proportion of Black residents across California, and the proportion of Hispanic residents near active wells was 4%–13% higher than their statewide proportion. Disparities were greatest in areas with the highest oil and gas production, where the proportion of Black residents was 105%–139% higher than statewide. Socioeconomically marginalized residents also had disproportionately high exposure to wells. Though oil and gas production has declined in California, marginalized communities persistently had disproportionately high exposure to wells, potentially contributing to health disparities.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recreating the California New Year's Flood Event of 1997 in a Regionally Refined Earth System Model

Abstract The 1997 New Year's flood event was the most costly in California's history. This compound extreme event was driven by a category 5 atmospheric river that led to widespread snowmelt. Extreme precipitation, snowmelt, and saturated soils produced heavy runoff causing widespread inundation in the Sacramento Valley. This study recreates the 1997 flood using the Regionally Refined Mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM‐E3SM) under prescribed ocean conditions. Understanding the processes causing extreme events informs practical efforts to anticipate and prepare for such events in the future, and also provides a rich context to evaluate model skill in representing extremes. Three California‐focused RRM grids, with horizontal resolution refinement of 14 km down to 3.5 km, and six forecast lead times, 28 December 1996 at 00Z through 30 December 1996 at 12Z, are assessed for their ability to recreate the 1997 flood. Planetary to synoptic scale atmospheric circulations and integrated vapor transport are weakly influenced by horizontal resolution refinement over California. Topography and mesoscale circulations, such as the Sierra barrier jet, are better represented at finer horizontal resolutions resulting in better estimates of storm total precipitation and storm duration snowpack changes. Traditional time‐series and causal analysis frameworks are used to examine runoff sensitivities state‐wide and above major reservoirs. These frameworks show that horizontal resolution plays a more prominent role in shaping reservoir inflows, namely the magnitude and time‐series shape, than forecast lead time, 2‐to‐4 days prior to the 1997 flood onset.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Potential for Solar Industrial Process Heat in the United States: A Look at California

The use of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) collectors (e.g., parabolic trough or linear Fresnel systems) for industrial thermal applications has been increasing in global interest in the last few years. In particular, the European Union has been tracking the deployment of Solar Industrial Process Heat (SIPH) plants. Although relatively few plants have been deployed in the United States (U.S.), we establish that 29% of primary energy consumption in the U.S. manufacturing sector is used for process heating. Perhaps the best opportunities for SIPH reside in the state of California due to its excellent solar resource, strong industrial base, and solar-friendly policies. This initial analysis identified 48 TWhth/year of process heat demand in certain California industries versus a technical solar-thermal energy potential of 23,000 TWhth/year. The top five users of industrial steam in the state are highlighted and special attention paid to the food sector that has been an early adopter of SIPH in other countries. A comparison of the cost of heat from solar-thermal collectors versus the cost of industrial natural gas in California indicates that SIPH may be cost effective even under the relatively low gas prices seen in 2014. A recommended next step is the identification of pilot project candidates to promote the deployment of SIPH facilities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

California’s 2023 snow deluge: Contextualizing an extreme snow year against future climate change

The increasing prevalence of low snow conditions in a warming climate has attracted substantial attention in recent years, but a focus exclusively on low snow leaves high snow years relatively underexplored. However, these large snow years are hydrologically and economically important in regions where snow is critical for water resources. Here, we introduce the term “snow deluge” and use anomalously high snowpack in California’s Sierra Nevada during the 2023 water year as a case study. Snow monitoring sites across the state had a median 41 y return interval for April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE). Similarly, a process-based snow model showed a 54 y return interval for statewide April 1 SWE (90% CI: 38 to 109 y). While snow droughts can result from either warm or dry conditions, snow deluges require both cool and wet conditions. Relative to the last century, cool-season temperature and precipitation during California’s 2023 snow deluge were both moderately anomalous, while temperature was highly anomalous relative to recent climatology. Downscaled climate models in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-370 scenario indicate that California snow deluges—which we define as the 20 y April 1 SWE event—are projected to decline with climate change (58% decline by late century), although less so than median snow years (73% decline by late century). This pattern occurs across the western United States. Changes to snow deluge, and discrepancies between snow deluge and median snow year changes, could impact water resources and ecosystems. Understanding these changes is therefore critical to appropriate climate adaptation.

Marshall, Adrienne M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Finny Merchandise: The Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) Trade in Gold Rush–Era San Francisco, California

During California’s Gold Rush of 1849–1855, thousands of miners rushed to San Francisco, Sacramento, and elsewhere throughout northern California, creating a significant demand for food. In this work, we investigate the role of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and Pacific cod (G. macrocephalus) during the Gold Rush era using historical records, ancient DNA, and vertebral morphology in the cod assemblage recovered from Thompson’s Cove (CA-SFR-186H), a Gold Rush–era site in San Francisco. From the 18 cod bones recovered from Thompson’s Cove, our analysis of five specimens for ancient DNA indicates that Atlantic cod were imported during the 1850s, likely as a (largely) deboned, dried and salted product from the East Coast of the United States. Curiously, while locally available in very deep waters off the California coast, Pacific cod were minimally fished during the 1850s and became abundantly available in the 1860s after an Alaska-based fishery developed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recurrent pattern of extreme fire weather in California

Abstract Historical wildfire events in California have shown a tendency to occur every five to seven years with a rapidly increasing tendency in recent decades. This oscillation is evident in multiple historical climate records, some more than a century long, and appears to be continuing. Analysis shows that this 5–7 year oscillation is linked to a sequence of anomalous large-scale climate patterns with an eastward propagation in both the ocean and atmosphere. While warmer temperature emerges from the northern central Pacific to the west coast of California, La Niña pattern develops simultaneously, implying that the lifecycle of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that takes multiple years to form could be a trigger. The evolving patterns of the Pacific-to-North America atmospheric teleconnection suggest the role of tropical and subtropical forcing embedded in this lifecycle. These results highlight the semi-cyclical hydrological behavior as a climate driver for wildfire variability in California.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗