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At least 235 records · Page 13

A stochastic model of future extreme temperature events for infrastructure analysis

Applying extreme temperature events for future conditions is not straightforward for infrastructure resilience analyses. This work introduces a stochastic model that fills this gap. The model uses at least 50 years of daily extreme temperature records, climate normals with 10%-90% confidence intervals, and shifts/offsets for increased frequency and intensity of heat wave events. Intensity and frequency are shifted based on surface temperature anomaly from 1850-1900 for 32 models from CMIP6. A case study for Worcester, Massachusetts passed 85% of cases using the two-sided Kolmogorov-Smirnov -value test with 95% confidence for both temperature and duration. Future shifts for several climate scenarios to 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080 had acceptable errors between the shifted model and 10- and 50-year extreme temperature event thresholds with the largest error being 2.67 degrees C. The model is likely to be flexible enough for other patterns of extreme weather such as extreme precipitation and hurricanes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

BuildingSync® v.2.5.0 2024 [SWR-18-28]

BuildingSync® is a building data exchange schema to better enable integration between software tools and building data workflows. The schema's original use case was focused on commercial building energy audits; however, several additional use cases have been realized including building energy modeling and more high-level generic building data exchange. BuildingSync helps streamline the data exchange process, improving the value of the data, minimizing duplication of effort for subsequent building data collection efforts (including audits), and facilitating the achievement of greater energy efficiency. This in done in part by standardizing on (a) reporting audits in an electronic format, (b) tracking proposed, implemented, and discarded energy conservation measures, and (c) storing building characteristics (at multiple levels) for audits, benchmarking, and building energy analysis. BuildingSync has several documents and tools available to help users understand how to best leverage BuildingSync. The list below are only a subset of the resources available. If new resources are discovered, then feel free to create a new pull request with the additions. Generic BuildingSync information is available on the DOE website and the project website. BuildingSync Examples - These examples are kept up to date and show a wide range of implementations. Any new update to BuildingSync is required to pass validation on these example files. BuildingSync Use Case Validator allows for users to determine if their instance complies with a specific use case for BuildingSync by checking if the required elements are implemented in an uploaded instance. An API is also provided for automated integration into other tools. Also, the website contains an easy way to view the entirety of the schema and how elements relate to the Building Exchange Data Exchange Specification. The Validator is open sourced here Use Case TestSuite provides a Python package for easier generation of BuildingSync use cases. BuildingSync use cases depend on the generation of schematron documents, which is time-consuming and difficult to implement well. The TestSuite allows users to define a use case using a more palatable CSV template, which it then turns into a Schematron document. The source code is available here. BuildingSync to OpenStudio/EnergyPlus. The translator is open sourced here. This project will translate a Level 1 (and partial Level 2) ASHRAE Energy Audit to a fully defined OpenStudio and EnergyPlus model. This project is in early Beta testing and any feedback is welcome!

Long, Nicholas↗

Building-to-Grid Modeling Framework with a Case Study of Battery Systems

Coordinating electricity load shifting operations of multiple buildings has the potential to achieve significant benefits for both building owners and grid operation. In support of this research, this paper develops a novel building-to-grid modeling framework, which uses EnergyPlus to develop physics-based building energy models and GridLAB-D to develop distribution-level grid models. The data exchanges between buildings and distribution-level grid are conducted using Python script and HELICS co-simulation platform. Then, by using this modeling framework, this paper conducts a case study of battery systems in a connected community, which consists of 10 multi-family buildings with appropriately sized batteries. The three scenarios, baseline operation, tolerant to price fluctuations, and opportune usage, are studied. The result displays that, by adopting onsite batteries, both electricity costs for building owners and aggregated peak power demands are reduced.

Building-to-grid, connected community, co-simulati↗

Long-Term Assessment of Commercial Building Energy and Carbon Emissions in the Northwestern Region Under Future Weather Trend

The future climate significantly impacts building performance and increases uncertainties in energy simulations. A rising temperature trend is expected to heighten cooling loads during summer and result in more carbon emissions. Understanding the impact of future climate on building performance is significant for policymakers to make informed decisions. Building retrofit measures can improve building energy efficiency and reduce operational carbon emissions, yet their effects under future climate conditions have not been fully investigated so far. Thus, we proposed an assessment methodology for evaluating long-term energy consumption and operational carbon reduction potential using a building stock dataset. For this study, commercial buildings in the northwestern (NW) region were utilized to assess the impacts of future climate and building retrofit. In addition, we selected Montana with a cold and dry climate as an example to analyze and discuss the carbon emission reduction potential in buildings. The main findings are: (1) Under future climate trends, changes in energy use intensity (EUI) will fluctuate due to variations in heating and cooling degree-days (HDDs and CDDs) and increasing HDDs will lead to increasing EUI. (2) After applying annual building retrofitting, the long-term EUI reduction potential of buildings in the NW region will decrease with the increasing retrofitting degree, and the short-term EUI reduction potential will be impacted by the change of heating and cooling degree days. (3) In Montana, the long-term carbon intensity reduction potential of retrofitted buildings will decrease under future climate trends with the increasing renewable energy penetration.

building energy modeling↗

BuildingSync® v.2.7.0 (released 9.11.2025) [SWR-18-28]

BuildingSync® is a building data exchange schema to better enable integration between software tools and building data workflows. The schema's original use case was focused on commercial building energy audits; however, several additional use cases have been realized including building energy modeling and more high-level generic building data exchange. Version 2.7.0 adds new elements for file attachment feature and FederalBuilding, and generalizes usage of Optional Elements (e.g. EquipmentCondition, EquipmentID) to all assets/systems. BuildingSync helps streamline the data exchange process, improving the value of the data, minimizing duplication of effort for subsequent building data collection efforts (including audits), and facilitating the achievement of greater energy efficiency. This in done in part by standardizing on (a) reporting audits in an electronic format, (b) tracking proposed, implemented, and discarded energy conservation measures, and (c) storing building characteristics (at multiple levels) for audits, benchmarking, and building energy analysis. BuildingSync has several documents and tools available to help users understand how to best leverage BuildingSync. The list below are only a subset of the resources available. If new resources are discovered, then feel free to create a new pull request with the additions. Generic BuildingSync information is available on the DOE website and the project website. BuildingSync Examples - These examples are kept up to date and show a wide range of implementations. Any new update to BuildingSync is required to pass validation on these example files. BuildingSync Use Case Validator allows for users to determine if their instance complies with a specific use case for BuildingSync by checking if the required elements are implemented in an uploaded instance. An API is also provided for automated integration into other tools. Also, the website contains an easy way to view the entirety of the schema and how elements relate to the Building Exchange Data Exchange Specification. The Validator is open sourced here Use Case TestSuite provides a Python package for easier generation of BuildingSync use cases. BuildingSync use cases depend on the generation of schematron documents, which is time-consuming and difficult to implement well. The TestSuite allows users to define a use case using a more palatable CSV template, which it then turns into a Schematron document. The source code is available here. BuildingSync to OpenStudio/EnergyPlus. The translator is open sourced here. This project will translate a Level 1 (and partial Level 2) ASHRAE Energy Audit to a fully defined OpenStudio and EnergyPlus model. This project is in early Beta testing and any feedback is welcome!

Long, Nicholas [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NR↗

Evaluating the energy impact potential of energy efficiency measures for retrofit applications: A case study with U.S. medium office buildings

Quantifying the energy savings of various energy efficiency measures (EEMs) for an energy retrofit project often necessitates an energy audit and detailed whole building energy modeling to evaluate the EEMs; however, this is often cost-prohibitive for small and medium buildings. In order to provide a defined guideline for projects with assumed common baseline characteristics, this paper applies a sensitivity analysis method to evaluate the impact of individual EEMs and groups these into packages to produce deep energy savings for a sample prototype medium office building across 15 climate zones in the United States. We start with one baseline model for each climate zone and nine candidate EEMs with a range of efficiency levels for each EEM. Three energy performance indicators (EPIs) are defined, which are annual electricity use intensity, annual natural gas use intensity, and annual energy cost. Then, a Standard Regression Coefficient (SRC) sensitivity analysis method is applied to determine the sensitivity of each EEM with respect to the three EPIs, and the relative sensitivity of all EEMs are calculated to evaluate their energy impacts. For the selected range of efficiency levels, the results indicate that the EEMs with higher energy impacts (i.e., higher sensitivity) in most climate zones are high-performance windows, reduced interior lighting power, and reduced interior plug and process loads. However, the sensitivity of the EEMs also vary by climate zone and EPI; for example, improved opaque envelope insulation and efficiency of cooling and heating systems are found to have a high energy impact in cold and hot climates.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

CLIMATE-SPECIFIC MODELING AND ANALYSIS FOR BEST-PRACTICE INDIAN OFFICE BUILDINGS

This paper describes the methodology and results of building energy modeling to validate and quantify the energy savings from conservation measures in medium-sized office buildings in four different climate zones in India. We present the different energy measures and their expected and simulated performances and discuss the results and the influence of climate.

Singh, Reshma↗

Surrogate model evaluation and building energy benchmarking for commercial buildings

Building energy consumption benchmarking involves challenges associated with various energy patterns for different building types; heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system types; and climates. Given significant variation in energy use patterns, accurate prediction of long-term energy use using surrogate models remains challenging. Multiple linear regression (MLR) is commonly used for building energy benchmarking because of its simple structure; however, it lacks accuracy compared to other black-box models. Although many studies have compared surrogate models and offer guidance on model selection based on metrics, they do not provide detailed analysis on improving the surrogate model accuracy. In this paper, we implement a surrogate model using polynomial ridge regression (i.e., MLR with interaction terms combined with ridge regularization) for small office and retail strip mall buildings across six HVAC system types and all climate zones, for electricity and natural gas in baseline and proposed scenarios. A simulation workflow is developed using OpenStudio TM /EnergyPlus TM to generate simulation data using measures over a wide range of efficiency inputs. Enhancements based on statistical insights are used for improving the model accuracy using filters, input transformations, and change points. Surrogate models achieved average coefficient of variation of the root mean squared error (CVRMSE) values of 2.17, 1.06, 2.05, and 3.26 for proposed electricity, proposed natural gas, baseline electricity, and baseline natural gas, respectively, with enhancements reducing CVRMSE by an average of 14.9% across all combinations. We provide model interpretation via Shapley additive explanations to determine which input variables most influence energy consumption and provide supportive arguments for enhancements.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

ResStock 2024.2 Dataset [Slides]

In the ResStock 2024.2 dataset, ResStock runs are used to create "what-if" scenarios including energy efficiency measures such as heat pumps, envelope improvements, and electrification of appliances. This dataset release includes 15 measure packages across two weather years and incorporates ResStock improvements in variable speed heat pump modeling, geothermal heat pump modeling, and housing characteristic data updates from RECS 2020.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Methods for Computing Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource Suitable for Bulk Power System Planning Models

Demand response is commonly called on to reduce load during system peak times or to respond to contingency events. In future power systems with higher shares of wind and solar generation (which we describe together as variable generation [VG]), demand response could have more opportunities to provide energy shifting or operating reserve services. This report evaluates the ability of residential electric water heaters, both electric resistance water heaters (ERWHs) and heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), to provide such services starting from detailed whole-building energy models that realistically represent New England single family home stock. We use a parsimonious surrogate model to represent operational flexibility in a form suitable for linear and mixed integer programming. This enables relatively fast determination of aggregate contingency reserve resource, price-taking energy shifting outcomes, and in some cases the determination of aggregate models at the megawatt (MW) scale that can be directly included in large-scale grid models. After selecting modeling methods and parameters through various computational experiments, we find interquartile ranges of contingency reserve resource in ISO-NE for about 603,400 ERWHs of 45 MW - 69 MW for Claim10 (50 minute responses provided with 10 minutes of advanced notification) and 65 MW - 102 MW for Claim30 (30 minute responses provided with 30 minutes of advanced notification), and for about 619,000 HPWHs of 48 MW - 88 MW for Claim10 and 52 MW - 90 MW for Claim30. The overall reserve resource is up to 32% of total load for ERWHs providing Claim10 service, 47% for ERWHs providing Claim30 service, 93% for HPWHs providing Claim10 service, and 97% for HPWHs providing Claim30 service. More work is required to determine if HPWHs are inherently more suitable than ERWHs for providing contingency reserve or if these results reflect idiosyncrasies of the single family home stock model used in this study. The value of this contingency resource in a Near-term VG model of ISO-NE is $\$ 0.40$ to $\$1.20$ per water heater-year, and significantly larger, $\$ 3.80$ to $\$ 5.30$ per water heater-year in a Mid-term VG model of ISONE. Aggregating surrogate models to the MW-scale for energy shifting service is more challenging than for contingency service and we only present such results for ERWHs, because we were unable to determine satisfactory ways to deal with HPWHs' time-varying and path dependent operational characteristics. Individual surrogate models suitable for evaluating the energy shifting resource from both ERWHs and HPWHs are created, however, and dispatched against day-ahead prices from the Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG models of ISO-NE. The individual surrogate models are able to access and potentially shift all 640 GWh of HPWH load and 1,547 GWh of ERWH load we modeled in two different single family home stock models. In contrast, the most effective model of aggregate ERWH shifting resource we created only captured 34.7% of the total ERWH load. Energy shifting affected by price-taking dispatch against modeled day-ahead energy prices produces per water heater year profits of $\$19.44$ - $\$22.93$ for individual HPWHs, $\$39.11$ - $\$40.54$ for individual ERWHs, and up to $\$4.00$ - $\$4.24$ for aggregated ERWHs, with the variations mainly due to grid conditions (more or less VG). When the supply-side response to these changes is accounted for, the per water heater year production cost savings for ISO-NE are $\$7.50$ to $\$17.70$ for the most effective set of endogenously dispatched aggregate ERWHs, $\$15.60$ to $\$15.70$ for individual ERWHs dispatched against the DA prices, and $\$10.70$ to $\$11.20$ for individual HPWHs dispatched against DA prices. Those ranges primarily represent the difference between Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG grid conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Market Needs, Use Cases, and Data Gaps

This report serves as the first-year deliverable for a multiyear project that intends to produce a set of highly resolved electricity end-use load profiles (EULPs) of the U.S. residential and commercial building stock. The project team, made up of researchers from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and Argonne National Laboratory, ultimately will use calibrated physics-based building energy models to create these EULPs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Energy-saving potential evaluation for primary schools with occupant-centric controls

Recent studies demonstrated that there is significant energy-saving potential for primary schools, which heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems with occupant-centric control (OCC) is an excellent candidate to save energy. However, such an energy impact has yet to be evaluated for different climate zones as well as different energy code versions, but is critical for technology transfer and deployment. Therefore, this paper conducts comprehensive evaluation on the energy-saving potentials for the primary schools with two advanced OCC strategies: presence-based and counting-based. In this work, ninety-six building energy models with stochastic behavior of occupants are developed and simulated, which consist of two building energy code versions, 16 climate zones, and baseline case (without OCC) and two advanced cases (with OCC). To evaluate the energy saving potentials for OCC, primary schools in the U.S. are used as an example. The results show that there is significant energy-saving potential for primary schools by considering OCC strategies, especially the counting-based case. The energy-saving potential is up to 10.2% for presence-based OCC and 12.41% for counting-based OCC. Furthermore, both climate and code version have a significant impact on energy savings from OCC strategies. The energy-saving potentials vary from 1.79% to 12.41% for different climates and code versions. This evaluation can also contribute to quantify the nationwide energy saving potential for other countries.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

End Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock

End Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock is a multiyear project to produce a set of highly resolved electricity end-use load profiles (EULPs) of the U.S. residential and commercial building stock. The project team, made up of researchers from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and Argonne National Laboratory, ultimately will use calibrated physics-based building energy models to create these EULPs. This presentation provides an overview of the project approach, status, goals, and challenges, and discusses what the project means for the Northeast region.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Forecasting Peak Electricity Demand for Los Angeles Considering Higher Air Temperatures due to Climate Change

We report that Los Angeles County (LAC) is a large urbanized region with 9.7 million residents (as of 2010) and aging infrastructure. Population forecasts indicate that LAC will become home to an additional 1.2-3.1 million residents through 2060. Additionally, climate forecasts based upon representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 indicate that average air temperatures will increase by 1-4 degrees C (2-7 degrees F) in the region. Both of these factors are expected to result in higher summertime peak electricity demand due to growth in the number of buildings, the percentage of installed air conditioners (ACs), and the additional cooling load on those air conditioners. In order to understand potential power reliability issues, and support infrastructure planning efforts, a long-term peak demand forecast was developed using hourly residential and commercial (R&C) building energy models. Peak hour electricity demand was estimated to increase from 9.5 to 12.8 GW for R&C sectors, to 13.0-17.3 GW (2-36%) and 14.7-19.2 GW (16-51%) by 2060 for the population forecasts from the California Department of Finance and the Southern California Association of Governments respectively. While marginal increases in ambient air temperature due to climate change accounted for only 4-8% of future increases in peak demand, differences in annual maximum temperatures within the 20-year periods affected results by 40-66% indicating a high sensitivity to heat waves. Population growth of at least 1 million people is anticipated to occur mostly in the northern cities of Palmdale, Lancaster, and Santa Clarita, bringing an additional 0.4-1 GW of peak demand in those regions. Building and AC efficiency are anticipated to improve as national and state efficiency standards increase, and as older, less efficient units are replaced; this could offset some of the projected increases in peak demand. Furthermore, development of shared wall, multi-family dwelling units could enable population growth of up to 3 million people without increasing peak demand.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Futures for electrochromic windows on high performance houses in arid, cold climates

This study investigates high performance electrochromic windows used on a passive house and residential dwelling to IECC 2021 (i.e., IECC dwelling). In the lab, the electrochromic film switches transmitted solar heat gain coefficient (SHGC) from 0.09 to 0.7 and visible transmittance from 0.15 to 0.82 with power consumption of 1.23 W/m 2 during switching times less than 3 minutes. We extrapolate these results to a window assembly. Building energy models of the houses were evaluated in Santa Fe, New Mexico. A Monte Carlo analysis for 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080 was conducted for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5. Cases with and without the electrochromic windows and with and without electricity were used to determine energy use intensity and hours beyond thermal safety thresholds. The passive house showed 1.3-3.1% mean energy savings and the IECC dwelling 4.4-5.1% with electrochromic efficiency benefits growing into the future for both cases. Even so, overall savings decrease into the future for the passive house, due to growth in cooling load being dominant, conversely overall energy savings increase into the future for the IECC dwelling due to heating loads being dominant. For thermal resilience, the passive house exhibited a mean percent decrease of 0.02-0.31% hours in the extreme caution (i.e., > 32.2 °C, ≤ 39.4 °C) range while the IECC dwelling exhibited 0.38-4.38%. The study therefore shows that electrochromic windows will have smaller benefits for the passive house in comparison to the IECC dwelling. The relationship between electrochromic windows is shown to have a complex relationship between house efficiency and climate change by these results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

ResStock Measure Documentation: Efficient Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging

This report is part of a series describing different ResStock (TM) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. This documentation covers the "Efficient Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging" measure upgrade methodology and briefly discusses key results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

ResStock Measure Documentation: Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 1 Charging

This report is part of a series describing different ResStock (TM) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. This documentation covers the "Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 1 Charging" measure upgrade methodology and briefly discusses key results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

ResStock Measure Documentation: Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging

This report is part of a series describing different ResStock (TM) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. This documentation covers the "Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging" measure upgrade methodology and briefly discusses key results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗