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DOE OSTI2021

Utilizing physics-based input features within a machine learning model to predict wind speed forecasting error

Machine learning is quickly becoming a commonly used technique for wind speed and power forecasting. Many machine learning methods utilize exogenous variables as input features, but there remains the question of which atmospheric variables are most beneficial for forecasting, especially in handling non-linearities that lead to forecasting error. This question is addressed via creation of a hybrid model that utilizes an autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model to make an initial wind speed forecast followed by a random forest model that attempts to predict the ARIMA forecasting error using knowledge of exogenous atmospheric variables. Variables conveying information about atmospheric stability and turbulence as well as inertial forcing are found to be useful in dealing with non-linear error prediction. Streamwise wind speed, time of day, turbulence intensity, turbulent heat flux, vertical velocity, and wind direction are found to be particularly useful when used in unison for hourly and 3 h timescales. The prediction accuracy of the developed ARIMA–random forest hybrid model is compared to that of the persistence and bias-corrected ARIMA models. The ARIMA–random forest model is shown to improve upon the latter commonly employed modeling methods, reducing hourly forecasting error by up to 5 % below that of the bias-corrected ARIMA model and achieving an R 2 value of 0.84 with true wind speed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Local Inversion Symmetry Breaking and Thermodynamic Evidence for Ferrimagnetism in Fe 3 GaTe 2

The layered compound Fe 3 GaTe 2 is attracting attention due to its high Curie temperature, low dimensionality, and the presence of topological spin textures above room temperature, making Fe 3 GaTe 2 a good candidate for applications in spintronics. Here, in this study, we show, through transmission electron microscopy (TEM) techniques, that Fe 3 GaTe 2 single crystals break local inversion symmetry while maintaining global inversion symmetry according to X-ray diffraction. Coupled to the observation of Néel skyrmions via Lorentz-TEM, our structural analysis provides a convincing explanation for their presence in centrosymmetric materials. Magnetization measurements as a function of the temperature displays a sharp first-order thermodynamic phase-transition leading to a reduction in the magnetic moment. This implies that the ground state of Fe 3 GaTe 2 is globally ferrimagnetic and not a glassy magnetic state composed of ferrimagnetic, and ferromagnetic domains as previously claimed. Neutron diffraction studies indicate that the ferromagnetic to ferrimagnetic transition upon reducing the external magnetic field is associated with a change in the magnetic configuration/coupling between Fe1 and Fe2 moments. We observe a clear correlation between the hysteresis observed in both the skyrmion density and the magnetization of Fe 3 GaTe 2 . This indicates that its topological spin textures are affected by the development of ferrimagnetism upon cooling. Observation, via magnetic force microscopy, of magnetic bubbles at the magnetic phase boundary suggests skyrmions stabilized by the competition among magnetic phases and distinct exchange interactions. Our study provides an explanation for the observation of Néel skyrmions in centrosymmetric systems, while exposing a correlation between the distinct magnetic phases of Fe 3 GaTe 2 and topological spin textures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Stability and Characteristics of Lower-hybrid Drift Waves: Dependence on Electron Beta and Cross-field Relative Drift

Lower-hybrid drift waves (LHDWs) are frequently observed microinstabilities in both space and laboratory plasmas. Despite decades of study, the relationship between electrostatic (ES-LHDW) and electromagnetic (EM-LHDW) variants and the plasma parameters controlling their stability remains unclear. Here, we systematically examine LHDW behavior by solving the local linear dispersion relation over a wide range of plasma and field conditions. Our results demonstrate that ES-LHDWs and EM-LHDWs are not distinct modes but rather two different regimes of the same drift wave whose character evolves smoothly with electron beta (β e ) and the cross-field electron drift velocity relative to ions, normalized to the ion sound speed (u 0x /C s ). The nature of the waves changes from electrostatic to electromagnetic when β e increases. Growth rates increase with u 0x /C s but decrease with β e , while the most unstable wavelength remains nearly universal, with kρ e ∼ 0.8 (k is the magnitude of the wave vector and ρ e is the electron gyroradius). We further present quasi-linear estimates of nonlinear saturation properties, including energy partition among electric fields, magnetic fields, and particle kinetic responses. We show that ES-LHDWs reach higher electric-field saturation amplitudes, whereas EM-LHDWs generate strong magnetic perturbations and parallel electric fields that may enable efficient particle heating. Comparisons with the classical model reveal that retaining electromagnetic effects is essential for accurate predictions of frequency, growth rate, and the propagation angle. These findings provide a unified framework for understanding LHDWs across diverse collisionless plasma environments, including current sheets of magnetic reconnection, shear layers, collisionless shocks, and boundary regions.

Solar coronal waves↗

DOE OSTI2022

Single-Crystalline Ni-Rich LiNi x Mn y Co 1– x – y O 2 Cathode Materials: A Perspective

To drive electrical vehicles for long-range, the energy density of Li-ion batteries must be further enhanced, which requires high-energy cathode materials. Among them, Ni-rich LiNi x Mn y Co 1–x–y O 2 (x > 0.5, NMC) is one of the most promising candidates. However, traditional poly-crystal (PC) NMC materials, whose particles are secondary clusters consisting of many primary crystalline particles, are susceptible to pulverization along the inter grain/particle boundaries, resulting in poor cycle stability. Recently, single crystal (SC)-NMC cathodes are proposed as they are believed to have several merits such as high structural integrity, lower interface with electrolyte, and potentially better energy storage performance. Nevertheless, several queries, such as the merits of SC structure and the mechanism for their structure degradation, are still controversial and required to be addressed. Here, in this study, the synthesis parameters, properties, energy storage as well as safety of SC- and PC-NMC cathodes with various Ni contents are critically reviewed, for clarifying the merits and drawbacks of SC. Furthermore, the study focuses on the recent advances of insight mechanisms and strategies for stabilizing the structure/interface by doping, morphology engineering, surface coating, and composition tailoring. The remaining challenges, safety concerns, and perspectives to enhance the electrochemical performance of SC-NMC cathodes for electric vehicle application are followed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Observations of the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer’s Response to a Solar Eclipse

The atmospheric response to the solar eclipse of 8 April 2024 in North America is investigated with a specific focus on the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL). We leverage measurements collected during the Third Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP3), including Doppler lidars, sonic anemometers, and thermodynamic profiler data to investigate the atmospheric response across sites that experienced partial eclipse conditions with nearly 90% obscuration. Using these measurements, we examine eclipse-induced changes in key meteorological parameters, such as temperature, wind speed, and turbulent fluxes. Most previous eclipse studies have been conducted over land, whereas this study provides new observations for both coastal and marine environments, offering additional insight into eclipse-driven variability in the MABL. The findings confirm a notable decrease in downwelling shortwave radiation during the eclipse, which results in rapid cooling of surface air. The temperature reduction ranges from $1.2^\circ \text {C}$ to $1.4^\circ \text {C}$ in coastal regions and from $0.3^\circ \text {C}$ to $0.5^\circ \text {C}$ over the ocean. This analysis suggests that the MABL’s higher thermal inertia compared to coastal regions moderates the temperature decrease during the eclipse. Wind speed exhibits a more complex behavior, as it is influenced by both the MABL and preexisting synoptic conditions. Although a reduction in wind speed is observable up to approximately 140 m above ground level (AGL) at more inland sites, at other locations closer to the coast, this reduction is constrained to the lowest 100 m AGL. Turbulence parameters retrieved from sonic anemometers, such as turbulence kinetic energy, turbulent heat flux, and friction velocity, decrease during the eclipse at coastal sites, accompanied by a brief transition of atmospheric stability from unstable to neutral or weakly stable conditions. For the open-ocean sites, the variability in turbulence statistics and atmospheric stability is minimal during the occurrence of the eclipse.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2025

Laser Powder Directed Energy Deposition of Steels for Nuclear Applications

This comprehensive investigation examines the structure–property relationships in two nuclear alloy systems—Alloy 709 (A709) austenitic stainless steel and Grade 92 (G-92) ferritic/martensitic (F/M) steel—manufactured via directed energy deposition (DED) for sodium-cooled fast reactor applications. This study establishes the fundamental mechanisms for controlling microstructures for optimizing the mechanical performance of additively manufactured nuclear materials through systematic heat treatment optimization and multiscale characterization. As-deposited A709 steel develops a complex multiscale strengthening architecture consisting of a fine cellular solidification structure with diameter of 2-3 µm within10–50 µm grains, elevated dislocation densities from rapid thermal cycling, and grain boundary precipitates that activate concurrent Hall–Petch, dislocation, and precipitation hardening mechanisms to achieve exceptional properties [yield strength (YS): 603 MPa, ultimate tensile strength (UTS): 844 MPa, Vickers hardness: 220 HV] that achieve a 44% superior strength compared to that of the wrought material. Heat treatments produce different results. Solution annealing (SA) dissolves the cellular structure and reduces the hardness to 190 HV. Precipitation treatment (PT) keeps the cellular structure but adds carbides, allowing the hardness to reach 205 HV. The best approach combines both treatments (SA+PT) and creates uniform precipitate distributions with M 23 C 6 carbides at the grain boundaries and MX carbonitrides in the matrix, achieving a hardness of 195 HV. However, directional differences persist, with a 12%–15% strength variation between orientations due to the inherited layered microstructural architecture that survives aggressive heat treatment. While tensile testing at 550°C demonstrates 40%–50% thermal softening with dynamic strain aging, DED A709 steel still maintains a 71% higher YS than that of the wrought material. Ion irradiation studies (100–400 dpa) of DED A709 steel reveal progressive radiation damage with increasing void density and radiation-induced segregation causing nickel enrichment and chromium depletion, which will ultimately compromise mechanical properties. As-deposited G-92 exhibits exceptional strength (UTS: 1650–1700 MPa, 430 HV) through a complex microstructure containing both ferrite and martensite phases, a high geometrically necessary dislocation (GND) density (17.04×10 14 /m 2 ), and fine carbides. Heat treatments create distinct changes. Normalizing produces fresh martensite with the highest hardness (460 HV) and an increased GND density (20.23×10 14 /m 2 ). Tempering develops dual precipitation systems and reduces the hardness to 290 HV. The optimal approach uses sequential normalizing plus tempering, achieving balanced properties with the lowest hardness (250 HV) and a reduced GND density (11.01×10 14 /m 2 ). A processing-dependent anisotropy is observed: horizontal specimens achieve superior ductile behavior, while vertical specimens exhibit brittle failure. A tempering heat treatment successfully mitigates this anisotropic behavior by transforming the hard martensitic as-deposited structure into tempered martensite enabling both horizontal and vertical specimens to exhibit similar stress–strain characteristics with visible necking behavior. Remarkably, testing at 550°C reveals a reversal in the anisotropy, where as-deposited specimens achieve near isotropy with superior thermal stability (a 15%–20% strength reduction), while tempered specimens develop an orientation dependence with a 25%–30% strength reduction. Both alloy systems demonstrate that DED processing creates specimens with a superior strength through refined microstructural features, though with distinct strengthening mechanisms—austenitic through cellular structures and precipitates versus F/M through phase transformations and precipitates. Heat treatment optimization requires alloy-specific approaches, with A709 benefiting from controlled precipitation while G-92 requires careful phase transformation control. The results show that DED manufacturing can produce nuclear materials with exceptional performance, but directional effects and temperature-dependent behavior must be carefully considered for reactor component design and qualification.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Package of Momentum and Heat Transfer Coefficients for the Stable Surface Layer Extended by New Coefficients over Sea Ice

The bulk transfer coefficients of momentum, heat, and humidity belong to the main ingredients of numerical weather prediction and climate models. They are needed for the calculation of turbulent fluxes in the surface layer and often rely on the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory requiring universal stability functions. The problem of a derivation of transfer coefficients based on different stability functions has been considered by many researchers over the years but it remains to this day. In this work, dedicated to the memory of S.S. Zilitinkevich, we also address this task, and obtain transfer coefficients from three pairs of theoretically derived stability functions suggested by Zilitinkevich and co-authors for stable conditions. Additionally, we construct non-iterative parametrizations of these transfer coefficients based on earlier work. Results are compared with state-of-the-art coefficients for land, ocean, and sea ice. The combined parametrizations form a package in a universal framework relying on a semi-analytical solution of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory equations. A comparison with data of the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean campaign (SHEBA) over sea ice reveals large differences between the coefficients for land conditions and the measurements over sea ice. However, two schemes of Zilitinkevich and co-authors show, after slight modification, good agreement with SHEBA although they had not been especially developed for sea ice. One pair of the modified transfer coefficients is superior and is compatible to earlier SHEBA-based parametrizations. Finally, an algorithm for practical use of all transfer coefficients in climate models is given.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

DNS of Flame Stabilization Dynamics of a Swirl-Stabilized Spray Burner Using Sustainable Aviation Fuels

Concern for emission reduction has motivated the development of new cost-effective alternative sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs). Drop-in SAFs with blends of the certified and the alternative fuels are beneficial because they do not require engine modifications for use in current aviation engines. Combustion characteristics are of particular concern when comparing a new fuel with Jet-A. Lean blow-off and flame stabilization have been identified to be governed by the fuel propensity to autoignition, i.e. derived cetane number. However, fundamental investigation is required to identify the impact of derived cetane number on the combustion mode of flame stabilization in a realistic combustor. The combustion mode has also a direct impact on turbulent combustion modeling closures. DNS simulations are performed in the low-Mach solver of the Pele Suite called PeleLMeX. Lagrangian multi-phase modeling is used to capture the liquid spray injection of Jet-A (reference fuel) and C1 as a representative of a low cetane number SAF. Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) is used to enable a more efficient simulation of a more realistic domain size and embedded boundary treatment is used to model a bluff-body geometry. Local extinction and edge flame propagation were observed for both fuels. The edge flame propagation mode was quantified in terms of a Damkohler number defined as the ratio between progress variable reaction rate and its diffusive flux. Initial analysis suggests that a mixed mode combustion occurs for the edge flame propagation, with flame propagation assisted by ignition and autoignition co-existing for both Jet-A and C1 flames. The analysis of the extinction region shows a larger progress variable for Jet-A which can further increase the local displacement speed and present a faster reignition of the stoichiometric mixture fraction.

adaptive mesh refinement↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evolution of magnetic field induced ordering in the layered quantum Heisenberg triangular-lattice antiferromagnet Ba 3 CoSb 2 O 9

Quantum fluctuations in the effective spin-12 layered triangular-lattice quantum Heisenberg antiferromagnet Ba 3 CoSb 2 O 9 lift the classical degeneracy of the antiferromagnetic ground state in magnetic field, producing a series of novel spin structures for magnetic fields applied within the crystallographic ab plane, including a celebrated collinear “up-up-down” spin ordering with magnetization equal to 1/3 of the saturation magnetization over an extended field range. Theoretically unresolved, however, are the effects of interlayer antiferromagnetic coupling and transverse magnetic fields on the ground states of this system. Additional magnetic field induced phase transitions are theoretically expected and in some cases have been experimentally observed, but details regarding their number, location, and physical character appear inconsistent with the predictions of existing models. Conversely, an absence of experimental measurements as a function of magnetic-field orientation has left other key predictions of these models untested. To address these issues, in this study we have used specific heat, neutron diffraction, thermal conductivity, and magnetic torque measurements to map out the phase diagram as a function of magnetic field intensity and orientation relative to the crystallographic ab plane. For H||ab, we have discovered an additional magnetic field induced phase transition at low temperature and an unexpected tetracritical point in the high-field phase diagram, which coupled with the apparent second-order nature of the phase transitions eliminates several theoretically proposed spin structures for the high-field phases. Our calorimetric measurements as a function of magnetic field orientation are in general agreement with theory for field-orientation angles close to plane parallel (H||a) but diverge at angles near plane perpendicular; a predicted convergence of two phase boundaries at finite angle and a corresponding change in the order of the field induced phase transition are not observed experimentally. Our results emphasize the role of interlayer coupling in selecting and stabilizing field induced phases, provide guidance on the nature of the magnetic order in each phase, and reveal the need for new physics to account for the nature of magnetic ordering in this archetypal two-dimensional spin-12 triangular-lattice quantum Heisenberg antiferromagnet.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2021

Volumetrically Absorbing Thermal Insulator (VATI) for High-temperature Receivers

This project seeks to exploit volumetric absorption of concentrated solar irradiation in a thin, high-temperature, thermally conductive medium. High efficiency thermal conversion is achieved by volumetric absorption of both incoming solar irradiation (short wavelength) and emitted irradiation (long wavelength), demonstrating a volumetrically absorbing thermally insulating (VATI) effect. The thermalized energy is conducted to the back wall, enclosing the working fluid (molten salt or supercritical CO 2 ). Reliance on conductive thermal transport requires a thermally conductive medium, in the absence of which large temperature gradients drive losses due to emission. The project’s outcomes are important to realize a cost-effective approach to reduce optical and thermal losses from CSP receivers at high temperatures (720°C). High-temperature stable and commercially available porous SiC structures (open-cell foams) were explored as a volumetrically absorbing and thermally insulating layer. To the best of our knowledge, the current state-of-the-art for industrially deployed coatings is Pyromark. However, Pyromark suffers degradation at 700+°C and diurnal temperature changes. This necessitates periodic recoating, and the downtime increases the overall levelized cost of energy (LCOE) production. On the other hand, contemporary research activities have generated significant advances in the development of selective emitter coatings, which present challenges with costs, scalability, and stability. The pursued approach alleviates these concerns by developing a receiver that utilizes the inherent structure of high-temperature stable porous materials to enable robust and cost-effective receivers which require no periodic maintenance downtimes. The overall goal of the project is to experimentally demonstrate a figure of merit (FOM) of 0.92 at a temperature of 720°C and solar irradiation of 1000x concentration with porous receivers. The relevant crystallographic (phase) optical and thermal properties of porous SiC were first characterized. Second, the 3-D geometry of the porous SiC was analyzed using micro-X-ray tomography and converted to CAD data using image processing analysis. Utilizing this 3-D geometry and relevant optical/thermal properties, Monte Carlo- Ray Tracing (MCRT) analysis was performed to extract important parameters governing solar-thermal energy conversion such as extinction coefficient (β, 1/m), scattering albedo (ω) and the scattering phase function (Φ). These properties were then integrated into an in-house radiative and conduction transport model to solve for temperature and transport fluxes characterizing the solar-thermal energy conversion. This model was utilized to predict the FOM for various SiC porous geometries and to identify the highest possible FOM. Testing of the optimized porous structures will be accomplished with a custom-built high-accuracy (< ±4%) FOM measurement test-stand and a 1000x solar concentrator. When neglecting convective losses and resistance at the open boundary and the back wall, the optimized SiC foam leads to a FOM of 0.84. This FOM does not surpass the performance of Pyromark 2500. Yet, conversely to Pyromark 2500, SiC is stable at high temperatures and does not degrade over time. Also, it is possible to boost the FOM of SiC by engineering its effective thermal conductivity and its scattering albedo. A FOM of 0.92 is predicted for an optimized foam by accounting for convective losses and resistance at the open boundary and the back wall. This largely exceeds the FOM of Pyromark 2500 (~0.86) predicted by neglecting convective losses and resistance. Therefore, further engineering of the foam could lead to unprecedented FOMs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Radiative heating rate profiles over the southeast Atlantic Ocean during the 2016 and 2017 biomass burning seasons

Marine boundary layer clouds, including the transition from stratocumulus to cumulus, are poorly represented in numerical weather prediction and general circulation models. Further uncertainties in the cloud structure arise in the presence of biomass burning carbonaceous aerosol, as is the case over the southeast Atlantic Ocean, where biomass burning aerosol is transported from the African continent. As the aerosol plume progresses across the southeast Atlantic Ocean, radiative heating within the aerosol layer has the potential to alter the thermodynamic environment and therefore the cloud structure; however, limited work has been done to quantify this along the trajectory of the aerosol plume in the region. The deployment of the first Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF1) in support of the Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds field campaign provided a unique opportunity to collect observations of cloud and aerosol properties during two consecutive biomass burning seasons during July through October of 2016 and 2017 over Ascension Island (7.96° S, 14.35° W). Using observed profiles of temperature, humidity, and clouds from the field campaign alongside aerosol optical properties from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), as input for the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model (RRTM), profiles of the radiative heating rate due to aerosols and clouds were computed. Radiative heating is also assessed across the southeast Atlantic Ocean using an ensemble of back trajectories from the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. Idealized experiments using the RRTM with and without aerosols and a range of values for the single-scattering albedo (SSA) demonstrate that shortwave (SW) heating within the aerosol layer above Ascension Island can locally range between 2 and 8 K d -1 depending on the aerosol optical properties, though impacts of the aerosol can be felt elsewhere in the atmospheric column. When considered under clear conditions, the aerosol has a cooling effect at the TOA, and based on the observed cloud properties at Ascension Island, the cloud albedo is not large enough to overcome this. Shortwave radiative heating due to biomass burning aerosol is not balanced by additional longwave (LW) cooling, and the net radiative impact results in a stabilization of the lower troposphere. However, these results are extremely sensitive to the single-scattering albedo assumptions in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗