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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

Use of Soft Computing Technologies for a Qualitative and Reliable Engine Control System for Propulsion Systems

The problem to be addressed in this paper is to explore how the use of Soft Computing Technologies (SCT) could be employed to improve overall vehicle system safety, reliability, and rocket engine performance by development of a qualitative and reliable engine control system (QRECS). Specifically, this will be addressed by enhancing rocket engine control using SCT, innovative data mining tools, and sound software engineering practices used in Marshall's Flight Software Group (FSG). The principle goals for addressing the issue of quality are to improve software management, software development time, software maintenance, processor execution, fault tolerance and mitigation, and nonlinear control in power level transitions. The intent is not to discuss any shortcomings of existing engine control methodologies, but to provide alternative design choices for control, implementation, performance, and sustaining engineering, all relative to addressing the issue of reliability. The approaches outlined in this paper will require knowledge in the fields of rocket engine propulsion (system level), software engineering for embedded flight software systems, and soft computing technologies (i.e., neural networks, fuzzy logic, data mining, and Bayesian belief networks); some of which are briefed in this paper. For this effort, the targeted demonstration rocket engine testbed is the MC-1 engine (formerly FASTRAC) which is simulated with hardware and software in the Marshall Avionics & Software Testbed (MAST) laboratory that currently resides at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, building 4476, and is managed by the Avionics Department. A brief plan of action for design, development, implementation, and testing a Phase One effort for QRECS is given, along with expected results. Phase One will focus on development of a Smart Start Engine Module and a Mainstage Engine Module for proper engine start and mainstage engine operations. The overall intent is to demonstrate that by employing soft computing technologies, the quality and reliability of the overall scheme to engine controller development is further improved and vehicle safety is further insured. The final product that this paper proposes is an approach to development of an alternative low cost engine controller that would be capable of performing in unique vision spacecraft vehicles requiring low cost advanced avionics architectures for autonomous operations from engine pre-start to engine shutdown.

Trevino, Luis↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Spatiotemporal-Aware Weighting Scheme for Improving Climate Model Ensemble Predictions

Multimodel ensembling has been widely used to improve climate model predictions, and the improvement strongly depends on the ensembling scheme. In this work, we propose a Bayesian neural network (BNN) ensembling method, which combines climate models within a Bayesian model averaging framework, to improve the predictive capability of model ensembles. Our proposed BNN approach calculates spatiotemporally varying model weights and biases by leveraging individual models' simulation skill, calibrates the ensemble prediction against observations by considering observation data uncertainty, and quantifies epistemic uncertainty when extrapolating to new conditions. More importantly, the BNN method provides interpretability about which climate model contributes more to the ensemble prediction at which locations and times. Thus, beyond its predictive capability, the method also brings insights and understanding of the models to guide further model and data development. In this study, we design experiments using an ensemble of CMIP6 climate model simulations to illustrate the BNN ensembling method's capability with respect to prediction accuracy, interpretability, and uncertainty quantification (UQ). We demonstrate that BNN can correctly assign larger weights to the regions and seasons where the individual model fits the observation better. Moreover, its offered interpretability is consistent with our understanding of localized climate model performance. Additionally, BNN shows an increasing uncertainty when the prediction is farther away from the period with constrained data, which appropriately reflects our trustworthiness of the models in the changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interpreting High-resolution Spectroscopy of Exoplanets using Cross-correlations and Supervised Machine Learning

We present a new method for performing atmospheric retrieval on ground-based, high-resolution data of exoplanets. Our method combines cross-correlation functions with a random forest, a supervised machine-learning technique, to overcome challenges associated with high-resolution data. A series of cross-correlation functions are concatenated to give a “CCF-sequence” for each model atmosphere, which reduces the dimensionality by a factor of ∼100. The random forest, trained on our grid of ∼65,000 models, provides a likelihood-free method of retrieval. The precomputed grid spans 31 values of both temperature and metallicity, and incorporates a realistic noise model. We apply our method to HARPS-N observations of the ultra-hot Jupiter KELT-9b and obtain a metallicity consistent with solar (logM = − 0.2 ± 0.2). Our retrieved transit chord temperature (T=6000{sub −200}{sup +0}K) is unreliable as strong ion lines lie outside of the extent of the training set, which we interpret as being indicative of missing physics in our atmospheric model. We compare our method to traditional nested sampling, as well as other machine-learning techniques, such as Bayesian neural networks. We demonstrate that the likelihood-free aspect of the random forest makes it more robust than nested sampling to different error distributions, and that the Bayesian neural network we tested is unable to reproduce complex posteriors. We also address the claim in Cobb et al. 2019 that our random forest retrieval technique can be overconfident but incorrect. We show that this is an artifact of the training set, rather than of the machine-learning method, and that the posteriors agree with those obtained using nested sampling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Active Learning‐Driven Inkless Additive Nanomanufacturing for Printed Electronics

Inkless additive nanomanufacturing for printed electronics promises broad material and substrate versatility, yet the high-dimensional print parameter space makes tuning print parameters time-intensive. We present a Bayesian optimization study that constructs a digital twin from printed-silver data to benchmark surrogate models, acquisition functions, and batch sizes head-to-head to achieve user-specified target resistance. Tested surrogate models included Gaussian process, random forest, and Bayesian neural network surrogates with expected improvement and confidence bound acquisition functions. In total, we evaluate 48 unique model configurations alongside a random sampling baseline for comparison. For printed silver, the Bayesian neural network with a batch size of one achieved the lowest average cumulative regret, approximately four times more efficient on average than random sampling. To balance performance and substrate space, a random forest model with expected improvement and a batch size of four was chosen as the model for validation testing. Applying this chosen configuration to copper with an additional print parameter, the model achieved a resistance within 0.15 Ω of a 1 Ω target in fewer than 30 printed lines across five validation sets. Altogether, the workflow yields a tuned and validated model that efficiently guides experiments toward the target while simultaneously learning the parameter space.

Bevel, Colton [Auburn University, AL (United State↗
NASA NTRS2011

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian Learning for Neural Networks

Conventional training methods for neural networks involve starting al a random location in the solution space of the network weights, navigating an error hyper surface to reach a minimum, and sometime stochastic based techniques (e.g., genetic algorithms) to avoid entrapment in a local minimum. It is further typically necessary to preprocess the data (e.g., normalization) to keep the training algorithm on course. Conversely, Bayesian based learning is an epistemological approach concerned with formally updating the plausibility of competing candidate hypotheses thereby obtaining a posterior distribution for the network weights conditioned on the available data and a prior distribution. In this paper, we developed a powerful methodology for estimating the full residual uncertainty in network weights and therefore network predictions by using a modified Jeffery's prior combined with a Metropolis Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.

Goodrich, Michael S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving Trustworthiness of Data-Driven Power Grid Contingency Analysis With Bayesian Residual Graph Neural Networks

The evolving energy landscape requires novel tools to efficiently perform contingency analysis and reliability assessment of power grids, potentially in real-time. The high computational cost of traditional power flow solvers limits their applicability in practice. Machine learning (ML) surrogates such as deep neural networks (NNs) accelerate power flow solvers computations, enabling high-order contingency analysis and real-time decision-making by learning highly nonlinear functions and integrating grid topology via graph architectures. However, (graph) NNs lack predictive power away from training data and do not provide predictive confidence estimates. Here, we present a Bayesian residual graph NN that integrates knowledge from low-fidelity data via residual training and embeds granular quantification of uncertainties, improving trustworthiness critical for high-consequence decision-making. Applying Bayesian concepts to NNs is challenging due to the high-dimensionality of both the parameter space, complicating derivation of a meaningful prior, and the output space in large grid systems, requiring enhanced techniques to assess the predicted high-dimensional uncertainties. Our contributions include: (1) Deriving a prior for fully connected and graph NNs that leverages low-fidelity data to guide mean predictions and appropriately control prior predictive uncertainty. (2) Integrating this prior within an ensembling with anchoring scheme for efficient approximate posterior inference. (3) Deriving enhanced metrics to assess accuracy of both the mean and uncertainty predictions in high dimensions, appropriately accounting for correlations propagated through graph layers. The resulting Bayesian residual graph NN is tested on a contingency analysis task for 14-bus and 118-bus grids.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2013

Towards Real-time, On-board, Hardware-Supported Sensor and Software Health Management for Unmanned Aerial Systems

Unmanned aerial systems (UASs) can only be deployed if they can effectively complete their missions and respond to failures and uncertain environmental conditions while maintaining safety with respect to other aircraft as well as humans and property on the ground. In this paper, we design a real-time, on-board system health management (SHM) capability to continuously monitor sensors, software, and hardware components for detection and diagnosis of failures and violations of safety or performance rules during the flight of a UAS. Our approach to SHM is three-pronged, providing: (1) real-time monitoring of sensor and/or software signals; (2) signal analysis, preprocessing, and advanced on the- fly temporal and Bayesian probabilistic fault diagnosis; (3) an unobtrusive, lightweight, read-only, low-power realization using Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) that avoids overburdening limited computing resources or costly re-certification of flight software due to instrumentation. Our implementation provides a novel approach of combining modular building blocks, integrating responsive runtime monitoring of temporal logic system safety requirements with model-based diagnosis and Bayesian network-based probabilistic analysis. We demonstrate this approach using actual data from the NASA Swift UAS, an experimental all-electric aircraft.

System & Software Health Management↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Risk Assessment of Obstacle Collision for UAVs under Off-nominal Conditions

Enabling operations of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in low-altitude airspace demands the need of robust risk monitoring framework for assessing the safety of airspace, ground structures and people. As widespread applications emerge, the need of risk assessment becomes increasingly important for UAV flights beyond visual line-of-sight, especially subjected to off-nominal conditions introduced by component failures, degraded controllability or environmental disturbances such as wind gusts in an urban canyon. From a safety perspective, collision with obstacles can be detrimental not only to the vehicle and payload, but also to the structure and people on ground. Although it is safe to assume that approved UAVs would be equipped with collision avoidance systems, risk of collision which can be predicted for a flight trajectory even before the UAV encounters any obstacle is beneficial to resolve contingencies in its decision-making under off-nominal conditions. In this paper, a framework is presented for computing the risk of collision with obstacle based on a UAV’s predicted trajectory, proximity to static and dynamic obstacles, sub-system state-of-health and external wind conditions. The conditional probability of trajectory deviation is generated using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) based on on-board sensor measurements. Further, a kinematic 3-DOF model is implemented to compute deviation in UAV’s trajectory subjected to one case study of off-nominal condition i.e. wind gusts. Finally, the integrated risk factor is demonstrated on real data from experimental flights of an octocopter at NASA Langley Research Center, in presence of simulated obstacles and wind conditions. The proposed approach would enable risk-informed decision making process for timely mitigation of current and future unsafe events.

Bayesian network↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

3D Representation of UAV-obstacle Collision Risk Under Off-nominal Conditions

Safe operations of autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in low-altitude airspace with beyond visual line-of-sight (BVLOS) flights demand robust risk monitoring of airspace as well as of people and property on ground. One of the safety critical factors for UAV flights is the risk of collision with static and dynamic obstacles in proximity to its flight path. This paper presents a detailed formulation of risk of obstacle collision incorporating the effects of off-nominal conditions introduced by component failures, degraded controllability and environmental disturbances such as wind gusts. The risk is represented in terms of a matrix with rows corresponding to the likelihood of occurrence of collision and columns representing severity of collision to the vehicle and surrounding structures. Risk likelihood is generated using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) that compiles knowledge from related Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEAs) and Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to determine the probability of collision based on on-board sensor measurements indicative of vehicle health and controllability. Risk severity is computed utilizing a point-mass 3D kinematic model of the vehicle in presence of wind. The proposed risk factor is demonstrated on real flight data from experimental flights of an octocopter at NASA Langley Research Center in presence of simulated obstacles and wind conditions. Effect of varying wind conditions, level of controllability and obstacle measurement noise on the risk factor is demonstrated. The proposed approach enables risk-informed decision making for timely mitigation of current and future unsafe events in autonomous systems.

risk analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

An investigation on machine learning predictive accuracy improvement and uncertainty reduction using VAE-based data augmentation

The confluence of ultrafast computers with large memory, rapid progress in Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, and the availability of large datasets place multiple engineering fields at the threshold of dramatic progress. However, a unique challenge in nuclear engineering is data scarcity because experimentation on nuclear systems is usually more expensive and time-consuming than most other disciplines. One potential way to resolve the data scarcity issue is deep generative learning, which uses certain ML models to learn the underlying distribution of existing data and generate synthetic samples that resemble the real data. In this way, one can significantly expand the dataset to train more accurate predictive ML models. In this study, our objective is to evaluate the effectiveness of data augmentation using variational autoencoder (VAE)-based deep generative models. We investigated whether the data augmentation leads to improved accuracy in the predictions of a deep neural network (DNN) model trained using the augmented data. Additionally, the DNN prediction uncertainties are quantified using Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) and conformal prediction (CP) to assess the impact on predictive uncertainty reduction. To test the proposed methodology, we used TRACE simulations of steady-state void fraction data based on the NUPEC Boiling Water Reactor Full-size Fine-mesh Bundle Test (BFBT) benchmark. Here, we found that augmenting the training dataset using VAEs has improved the DNN model’s predictive accuracy, improved the prediction confidence intervals, and reduced the prediction uncertainties.

Bayesian neural network↗
DOE OSTI2025

Boosting efficiency and reducing graph reliance: Basis adaptation integration in Bayesian multi-fidelity networks

The computational cost of high-fidelity numerical models makes outer-loop analysis, which requires repeated interrogation of the model such as uncertainty quantification, computationally demanding. Multi-fidelity methods, which construct a surrogate model using data from an ensemble of models of varying cost and accuracy, can substantially reduce the cost of outer-loop analysis. However, these methods can be difficult to apply when the model ensemble does not admit a clear hierarchy a priori and the correlations between models are low. Consequently, in this paper, we present a multi-fidelity method that leverages dimension reduction to enhance the correlation between models, thereby reducing the amount of data needed to train a surrogate from an unordered ensemble of models. Our method utilizes basis adaptation to build low-dimensional polynomial chaos expansions of each model and employs Multi-fidelity Networks to encode the relationships among models. We show that the resulting method exhibit two notable advantages over its counterpart: (1) enhanced accuracy (both reduced bias and variance); and (2) reduced dependency on the graph structure encoding relationships among models. We demonstrate the approach on an analytical test problem and a challenging finite element model for a spent nuclear fuel. Our method produces a surrogate model that is significantly more accurate than either a single-fidelity surrogate or a multi-fidelity surrogate constructed without basis adaptation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improved naive Bayesian probability classifier in predictions of nuclear mass

Recently, novel statistical methods such as neural networks and Bayesian learning methods are implemented to describe the nuclear masses. Based on previous studies, an improved naive Bayesian probability (iNBP) classifier is proposed to study the nuclear masses by refining the results of sophisticated nuclear models. In the iNBP method, the prediction for nuclear masses is treated as a classification problem. The residuals are classified into several groups to generate prior and conditional probabilities, and the posterior probabilities are further determined by the Bayesian formula. We choose the expectation with maximum probability as the final prediction. Reliability of the iNBP method is assessed by analyzing the global optimizations and the extrapolating capabilities. Here, the iNBP method exhibits impressive improvements on global descriptions for different mass models. Moreover, the method shows robust extrapolating capabilities. Results demonstrate the iNBP method can be applied to predict the nuclear masses of unknown regions. Considering the local mass relations, the iNBP method can offer considerable fine-tuning of the mass descriptions from nuclear models. The methodology proposed in this paper can also be applied to other model-based extrapolations of nuclear observables.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Bayesian inference with latent Hamiltonian neural networks in No-U-Turn Sampling

When sampling for Bayesian inference, one popular approach in the computational field is to use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and specifically the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS), which automatically decides the end time of the Hamiltonian trajectory. However, HMC and NUTS can require numerous numerical gradients of the target density and can prove slow in practice when relying on computationally expensive forward models. We propose Latent Hamiltonian neural networks (L-HNNs) with HMC and NUTS for solving Bayesian inference problems. Once trained, L-HNNs do not require numerical gradients of the target density during sampling, and hence numerous evaluations of the forward computational model. Moreover, L-HNNs satisfy important properties such as perfect time reversibility and Hamiltonian conservation, making them well-suited for use within HMC and NUTS because stationarity can be shown. We also propose the integration of L-HNNs in an online error monitoring scheme, in which numerical gradients of the target density are used for a few samples whenever the L-HNNs prediction errors are large. This online error monitor scheme prevents sample degeneracy in regions of low probability density and ensures robust uncertainty quantification. We demonstrate L-HNNs in NUTS with online error monitoring on several analytical examples involving complex, heavy-tailed, and high-local-curvature probability densities. We then demonstrate the applicability of L-HNNs in NUTS to two computational case studies, namely the Allen-Cahn stochastic partial differential equation and an elliptic partial differential equation with 25 and 50 inference parameters, respectively. Overall, the L-HNNs in NUTS with online error monitoring satisfactorily inferred these probability densities. In conclusion, compared to traditional NUTS, L-HNNs in NUTS with online error monitoring required 1–2 orders of magnitude fewer numerical gradients of the target density and improved the effective sample size (ESS) per gradient (which is a measure of both the sampling quality and the computational expense) by an order of magnitude.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electronic structure prediction of medium and high entropy alloys across composition space

We propose machine learning (ML) models to predict the electron density — the fundamental unknown of a material’s ground state — across the composition space of concentrated alloys. From this, other physical properties can be inferred, enabling accelerated exploration. A significant challenge is that the number of descriptors and sampled compositions required for accurate prediction grows rapidly with species. To address this, we employ Bayesian Active Learning (AL), which minimizes training data requirements by leveraging uncertainty quantification capabilities of Bayesian Neural Networks. Compared to the strategic tessellation of the composition space, Bayesian-AL reduces the number of training data points by a factor of 2.5 for ternary (SiGeSn) and 1.7 for quaternary (CrFeCoNi) systems. We also introduce easy-to-optimize, body-attached-frame descriptors, which respect physical symmetries while keeping descriptor-vector size nearly constant as alloy complexity increases. Our ML models demonstrate high accuracy and generalizability in predicting both electron density and energy across composition space.

materials science↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of a deep learning fuel property prediction model

Deep learning models are being widely used in the field of combustion. Given the black-box nature of typical neural network based models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical to ensure the reliability of predictions as well as the training datasets, and for a principled quantification of noise and its various sources. Deep learning surrogate models for predicting properties of chemical compounds and mixtures have been recently shown to be promising for enabling data-driven fuel design and optimization, with the ultimate goal of improving efficiency and lowering emissions from combustion engines. In this study, UQ is performed for a multi-task deep learning model that simultaneously predicts the research octane number (RON), Motor Octane Number (MON), and Yield Sooting Index (YSI) of pure components and multicomponent blends. The deep learning model is comprised of three smaller networks: Extractor 1, Extractor 2, and Predictor, and a mixing operator. The molecular fingerprints of individual components are encoded via Extractor 1 and Extractor 2, the mixing operator generates fingerprints for mixtures/blends based on linear mixing operation, and the predictor maps the fingerprint to the target properties. Two different classes of UQ methods, Monte Carlo ensemble methods and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), are employed for quantifying the epistemic uncertainty. Combinations of Bernoulli and Gaussian distributions with DropConnect and DropOut techniques are explored as ensemble methods. All the DropConnect, DropOut and Bayesian layers are applied to the predictor network. Aleatoric uncertainty is modeled by assuming that each data point has an independent uncertainty associated with it. The results of the UQ study are further analyzed to compare the performance of BNN and ensemble methods. Although this study is confined to UQ of fuel property prediction, the methodologies are applicable to other deep learning frameworks that are being widely used in the combustion community.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Equipping Neural Network Surrogates with Uncertainty for Propagation in Physical Systems

Coarse-grained or filtered models typically rely on closure models to account for unresolved scales. For instance, large eddy simulation for modeling turbulent fluid flows explicitly resolves the largest scales, but requires modeling closure terms to account for the sub-filter scales. With the vast amount of data available from high-fidelity simulations, there are unique opportunities to leverage data-driven modeling techniques to formulate expressive and flexible closure models. Despite their flexibility, data-driven models struggle in domain shift settings, i.e. when deployed in configurations not captured in the training dataset. In particular, the efficacy of neural network surrogates is difficult to assess a priori due to the deterministic, point-estimate nature of predictions. In high-consequence applications, such models require reliable uncertainty estimates in the data-informed and out-of-distribution regimes. To quantify uncertainties in both regimes, we employ Bayesian neural networks which are able to capture both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. We will discuss challenges associated with the training and evaluation of these networks. Furthermore, we will discuss uncertainty embedding strategies to enable efficient sampling and propagation of uncertainty through high-fidelity simulations.

Bayesian neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neural network ensembles and uncertainty estimation for predictions of inelastic mechanical deformation using a finite element method-neural network approach

The finite element method (FEM) is widely used to simulate a variety of physics phenomena. Approaches that integrate FEM with neural networks (NNs) are typically leveraged as an alternative to conducting expensive FEM simulations in order to reduce the computational cost without significantly sacrificing accuracy. However, these methods can produce biased predictions that deviate from those obtained with FEM, since these hybrid FEM-NN approaches rely on approximations trained using physically relevant quantities. In this work, an uncertainty estimation framework is introduced that leverages ensembles of Bayesian neural networks to produce diverse sets of predictions using a hybrid FEM-NN approach that approximates internal forces on a deforming solid body. The uncertainty estimator developed herein reliably infers upper bounds of bias/variance in the predictions for a wide range of interpolation and extrapolation cases using a three-element FEM-NN model of a bar undergoing plastic deformation. This proposed framework offers a powerful tool for assessing the reliability of physics-based surrogate models by establishing uncertainty estimates for predictions spanning a wide range of possible load cases.

42 ENGINEERING↗