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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian estimation of the $S$ factor and thermonuclear reaction rate for 16 O(p, γ) 17 F

The 16 O(p, γ) 17 F reaction is the slowest hydrogen-burning process in the CNO mass region. Its thermonuclear rate sensitively impacts predictions of oxygen isotopic ratios in a number of astrophysical sites, including AGB stars. The reaction has been measured several times at low bombarding energies using a variety of techniques. The most recent evaluated experimental rates have a reported uncertainty of about 7.5% below 1 GK. However, the previous rate estimate represents a best guess only and was not based on rigorous statistical methods. We apply a Bayesian model to fit all reliable 16 O(p, γ) 17 F cross section data, and take into account independent contributions of statistical and systematic uncertainties. The nuclear reaction model employed is a single-particle potential model involving a Woods-Saxon potential for generating the radial bound state wave function. The model has three physical parameters, the radius and diffuseness of the Woods-Saxon potential, and the asymptotic normalization coefficients (ANCs) of the final bound state in 17 F. Here, we find that performing the Bayesian S -factor fit using ANCs as scaling parameters has a distinct advantage over adopting spectroscopic factors instead. Based on these results, we present the first statistically rigorous estimation of experimental 16 O(p, γ) 17 F reaction rates, with uncertainties (±4.2%) of about half the previously reported values.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermodynamically informed priors for uncertainty propagation in first-principles statistical mechanics

Here, this work demonstrates how first-principles statistical mechanics approaches within a Bayesian framework can quantify and propagate uncertainties to downstream thermodynamic calculations. To address the issue of Bayesian prior selection, knowledge of 0 K ground states in the material system of interest is incorporated into the prior. The effectiveness of this framework is shown by creating a phase diagram for the fcc zirconium nitride system, including confidence intervals on order-disorder transition temperatures.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2022

Single Gaussian process method for arbitrary tokamak regimes with a statistical analysis

Abstract Gaussian process regression is a Bayesian method for inferring profiles based on input data. The technique is increasing in popularity in the fusion community due to its many advantages over traditional fitting techniques including intrinsic uncertainty quantification and robustness to over-fitting. This work investigates the use of a new method, the change-point method, for handling the varying length scales found in different tokamak regimes. The use of the Student’s t-distribution for the Bayesian likelihood probability is also investigated and shown to be advantageous in providing good fits in profiles with many outliers. To compare different methods, synthetic data generated from analytic profiles is used to create a database enabling a quantitative statistical comparison of which methods perform the best. Using a full Bayesian approach with the change-point method, Matérn kernel for the prior probability, and Student’s t-distribution for the likelihood is shown to give the best results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

An initial framework for the rapid qualification of long-term creep rupture strength via microstructural modeling

This report describes the development and testing of a new method for extrapolating short-term creep rupture test data to predict long-term rupture strength. The goal of this work is to reduce the time required to qualify new materials for nuclear service by reducing the lead time required for dedicated, long-term material testing to establish key long-term material properties. The new approach described here uses a physics-based model to predict the long-term creep rupture strength of 316H stainless steel using only short-term test data. The key idea is to use Bayesian inference to find the statistical distribution of the model parameters that best explain the short-term rupture data. Because the model is physics-based these parameters are all microstructural quantities that can be measured through detailed material characterization experiments. The Bayesian prior distributions provide a means for incorporating this characterization data into the final model to improve the accuracy of the long-term model predictions. However, where such data is not available the process still produces an accurate model based on an uniformed prior. Our hypothesis is that this approach more accurately extrapolates the short-term test data when compared to current, empirical methods. The report proves this hypothesis using actual long-term rupture data available for 316H, including tests with rupture times greater than 200,000 hours. The general approach developed here could be applied to other materials and other time-dependent material properties. Applying this new technique to develop long-term qualified material properties, potentially in conjunction with other accelerated qualification approaches like staggered qualification test programs, could greatly reduce the time required to qualify new materials for nuclear service.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian optimization algorithms for accelerator physics

Accelerator physics relies on numerical algorithms to solve optimization problems in online accelerator control and tasks such as experimental design and model calibration in simulations. The effectiveness of optimization algorithms in discovering ideal solutions for complex challenges with limited resources often determines the problem complexity these methods can address. The accelerator physics community has recognized the advantages of Bayesian optimization algorithms, which leverage statistical surrogate models of objective functions to effectively address complex optimization challenges, especially in the presence of noise during accelerator operation and in resource-intensive physics simulations. In this review article, we offer a conceptual overview of applying Bayesian optimization techniques toward solving optimization problems in accelerator physics. We begin by providing a straightforward explanation of the essential components that make up Bayesian optimization techniques. We then give an overview of current and previous work applying and modifying these techniques to solve accelerator physics challenges. Finally, we explore practical implementation strategies for Bayesian optimization algorithms to maximize their performance, enabling users to effectively address complex optimization challenges in real-time beam control and accelerator design. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving the Parameterization of Cloud and Rain Microphysics in E3SM using Novel Observationally-Constrained Bayesian Approach (Final Technical Report)

In this project, we sought to develop new cloud and rain microphysics frameworks within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). This work encompassed two primary avenues of research: 1) Further development of a Bayesian-based scheme called BOSS (Bayesian Observationally-constrained Statistical-physical Scheme) to represent cloud and rain microphysics, testing it in realistic high-resolution cloud models, and implementing it in E3SM; 2) Development of a methodology utilizing machine learning to enable computationally tractable use of tractable use of Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling for Bayesian parameter estimation in Earth system and cloud models. In this project, we adapted the BOSS microphysics scheme, originally formulated for rain-only, to include all liquid-phase microphysical processes for cloud and rain, in particular the processes that mediate between these two categories, for example the conversion from cloud to rain through collision and coalescence of drops. We constrained the scheme via comparison and testing against a detailed model that explicitly represents the evolution of cloud and rain particles, called a bin microphysics scheme.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The effect of modeling dose uncertainty on low-boom community noise dose-response curves

In logistic dose-response modeling, failing to account for uncertainty in estimated doses can cause an artificial flattening or attenuation of the slope of the summary curve. In Lee et al. [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 147(4), pp. 2222-2234 (2020)], data from two NASA low-amplitude sonic boom community noise survey tests were modeled using a Bayesian multilevel logistic regression (MLR) statistical model that assumed there was no uncertainty in the noise dose estimates. However, in these community tests, the noise dose uncertainty was estimated by Page et al. [NASA/CR-2014-218180 and NASA/CR-2020-220589/Volume I] using a leave-one-out method. In the current work, a term was added to extend the Bayesian MLR model to account for the estimated noise dose uncertainty quantified in the Page et al. analyses. This uncertainty term was included in two ways, either as classical or as Berkson uncertainty, and yield similar results. When the uncertainty is accounted for in the Bayesian MLR model, the dose-response curves become 5-10% steeper, but the difference in the noise dose that elicits a 5% highly annoyed response is small (less than 1 dB). This result is encouraging for future X-59 community tests whose survey area will be sparsely populated with noise monitors.

X-59↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Estimation of Oscillator Parameters: Toward Anomaly Detection and Cyber-Physical System Security

Cyber-physical system security presents unique challenges to conventional measurement science and technology. Anomaly detection in software-assisted physical systems, such as those employed in additive manufacturing or in DNA synthesis, is often hampered by the limited available parameter space of the underlying mechanism that is transducing the anomaly. As a result, the formulation of anomaly detection for such systems often leads to inverse or ill-posed problems, requiring statistical treatments. Here, we present Bayesian inference of unknown parameters associated with a generic actuator considered as a representative vital element of a cyber-physical system. Via a series of experimental input-output measurements, a transfer function for the actuator is obtained numerically, which serves as our model for the proposed method. Linear, nonlinear, and delayed dynamics may be assumed for the actuator response. By devising a code-based malicious signal, we study the efficacy of Bayesian inference for its potential to produce a detection, including uncertainty quantification, with a remarkably small number of input data points. Our approach should be adaptable to a variety of real-time cyber-physical anomaly detection scenarios.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian optimized collection strategies for fatigue strength testing

Abstract A statistical framework is presented enabling optimal sampling and analysis of constant life fatigue data. Protocols using Bayesian maximum entropy sampling are built based on conventional staircase and stress step methods, reducing the requirement of prior knowledge for data collection. The Bayesian Staircase method shows improved parameter estimation efficiency, and the Bayesian Stress Step method shows equal accuracy to the standard method at larger step size allowing experimentalists to lessen concerns of loading history. Statistical methods for determining model suitability are shown, highlighting the influence of protocol. Experimental validation is performed, showing the applicability of the methods in laboratory testing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning assisted bayesian inference of mix and hot-spot conditions in NIF implosions

Experiments on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) have provided clear evidence of ablator material mixing into the Hot-Spot, leading to degraded performance. However, inferring the amount of mix and Hot-Spot conditions from typical experimental observations (e.g. x-ray spectra and images) is highly challenging. Here, we have developed an analysis method that utilizes machine learning assisted Bayesian inference to find the probability distributions of the Hot-Spot and mix conditions. This approach uses a neural network, trained on an idealized 2-dimensional representation of the Hot-Spot and mix distribution, and Bayesian inference to find the statistical distributions of Hot-Spot conditions that provide a match with observations. We have tested this method with synthetic data from simulations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Incorporation of spatial information in Bayesian image reconstruction - The maximum residual likelihood criterion

We have developed a new figure of merit, a 'maximum-residual-likelihood' (MRL) statistic, for the goodness of fit for Bayesian image restoration which explicitly incorporates spatial information. The MRL constraint provides a natural means of incorporating the prior knowledge that the residuals contain no spatial structure through the autocorrelation function of the residuals. We demonstrate that this statistic follows a Chi-square distribution and that forcing this statistic to have its most probable value leads to a restored image whose residuals are consistent with the noise model. Our numerical experiments suggest that image restoration using the MRL statistic alone is numerically robust and produces results which are independent of the initial guess for the restored image. However, we caution that using the MRL statistic without an image prior can result in overresolution in low SNR portions of the image.

Pina, R. K.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Learning of Adatom Interactions from Atomically Resolved Imaging Data

Atomic structures and adatom geometries of surfaces encode information about the thermodynamics and kinetics of the processes that lead to their formation, and which can be captured by a generative physical model. In this work, we develop a workflow based on a machine-learning-based analysis of scanning tunneling microscopy images to reconstruct the atomic and adatom positions, and a Bayesian optimization procedure to minimize statistical distance between the chosen physical models and experimental observations. We optimize the parameters of a 2- and 3-parameter Ising model describing surface ordering and use the derived generative model to make predictions across the parameter space. For concentration dependence, we compare the predicted morphologies at different adatom concentrations with the dissimilar regions on the sample surfaces that serendipitously had different adatom concentrations. The proposed workflow can be used to reconstruct the thermodynamic models and associated uncertainties from the experimental observations of materials microstructures. The code used in the manuscript is available at https://github.com/saimani5/Adatom_interactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cluster characterization in atom probe tomography: Machine learning using multiple summary functions

In this work, we develop a machine learning-based method to characterize intracluster concentration (ρ c ), background concentration (ρ b ), clustering radius (r̄), and radius dispersity (δ r ) in simulated atom probe tomography data using multiple spatial statistics summary functions to train a Bayesian regularized neural network. Here, we build upon previous work that utilized Ripley’s K-function by incorporating additional features from nearest-neighbor spatial statistics summary functions to better characterize concentration-based metrics. The addition of nearest-neighbor based features allows for highly accurate estimates of ρ c and ρ b , both with 90% of the predictions within 4.0% of the real value; the root-mean-square errors are reduced by 81.5% and 92.8% from predictions using only K-function based features, respectively. Additionally, including these nearest-neighbor based features improves the ability to differentiate between r̄ and δ r .

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

PROVABGS: The Probabilistic Stellar Mass Function of the BGS One-percent Survey

We present the probabilistic stellar mass function (pSMF) of galaxies in the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS), observed during the One-percent Survey. The One-percent Survey was one of DESI's survey validation programs conducted from 2021 April to May, before the start of the main survey. It used the same target selection and similar observing strategy as the main survey and successfully observed the spectra and redshifts of 143,017 galaxies in the r < 19.5 magnitude-limited BGS Bright sample and 95,499 galaxies in the fainter surface-brightness- and color-selected BGS Faint sample over z < 0.6. We derive pSMFs from posteriors of stellar mass, M*, inferred from DESI photometry and spectroscopy using the Hahn et al. PRObabilistic Value-Added BGS (PROVABGS) Bayesian spectral energy distribution modeling framework. We use a hierarchical population inference framework that statistically and rigorously propagates the M* uncertainties. Furthermore, we include correction weights that account for the selection effects and incompleteness of the BGS observations. We present the redshift evolution of the pSMF in BGS, as well as the pSMFs of star-forming and quiescent galaxies classified using average specific star formation rates from PROVABGS. Overall, the pSMFs show good agreement with previous stellar mass function measurements in the literature. Our pSMFs showcase the potential and statistical power of BGS, which in its main survey will observe >100 × more galaxies. Moreover, we present the statistical framework for subsequent population statistics measurements using BGS, which will characterize the global galaxy population and scaling relations at low redshifts with unprecedented precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mass of 101 Sn and Bayesian extrapolations to the proton drip line

The favorable energy configurations of nuclei at magic numbers of 𝑁 neutrons and 𝑍 protons are fundamental for understanding the evolution of nuclear structure. The 𝑍 = 50 (tin) isotopic chain is a frontier for such studies, with particular interest at and around the doubly magic 100 Sn isotope, for which the mass is a topic of debate. Precise mass values for neutron-deficient isotopes provide necessary anchor points for mass models to test extrapolations near the proton drip line, where experimental studies remain out of reach. In this work, we report a Penning trap mass measurement of 101 Sn . The determined mass excess of −59889.89⁢(96) keV for 101 Sn represents a factor-of-300 improvement over the current precision and indicates that 101 Sn is less bound than previously thought. Mass predictions from a recently developed Bayesian model combination framework employing statistical machine learning and nuclear masses computed within seven global models based on nuclear density functional theory agree within 1⁢𝜎 with experimental masses from the 48 ≤ 𝑍 ≤ 52 isotopic chains. The framework's resilience to new mass data gave confidence in the extrapolation of tin masses down to 𝑁 = 46. Our calculations suggest that 96 Sn is a two-proton drip line nucleus and predict a mass excess of −58090⁢(800) keV for 100 Sn , showing a preference within 1⁢𝜎 for the mass of 100 Sn derived from the 𝛽-delayed 𝑄 value measured at GSI.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Asteroid orbital error analysis: Theory and application

We present a rigorous Bayesian theory for asteroid orbital error estimation in which the probability density of the orbital elements is derived from the noise statistics of the observations. For Gaussian noise in a linearized approximation the probability density is also Gaussian, and the errors of the orbital elements at a given epoch are fully described by the covariance matrix. The law of error propagation can then be applied to calculate past and future positional uncertainty ellipsoids (Cappellari et al. 1976, Yeomans et al. 1987, Whipple et al. 1991). To our knowledge, this is the first time a Bayesian approach has been formulated for orbital element estimation. In contrast to the classical Fisherian school of statistics, the Bayesian school allows a priori information to be formally present in the final estimation. However, Bayesian estimation does give the same results as Fisherian estimation when no priori information is assumed (Lehtinen 1988, and reference therein).

Muinonen, K.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical data analysis of x-ray spectroscopy data enabled by neural network accelerated Bayesian inference

Bayesian inference applied to x-ray spectroscopy data analysis enables uncertainty quantification necessary to rigorously test theoretical models. However, when comparing to data, detailed atomic physics and radiation transfer calculations of x-ray emission from non-uniform plasma conditions are typically too slow to be performed in line with statistical sampling methods, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Furthermore, differences in transition energies and x-ray opacities often make direct comparisons between simulated and measured spectra unreliable. Here, we present a spectral decomposition method that allows for corrections to line positions and bound–bound opacities to best fit experimental data, with the goal of providing quantitative feedback to improve the underlying theoretical models and guide future experiments. In this work, we use a neural network (NN) surrogate model to replace spectral calculations of isobaric hot-spots created in Kr-doped implosions at the National Ignition Facility. The NN was trained on calculations of x-ray spectra using an isobaric hot-spot model post-processed with Cretin, a multi-species atomic kinetics and radiation code. The speedup provided by the NN model to generate x-ray emission spectra enables statistical analysis of parameterized models with sufficient detail to accurately represent the physical system and extract the plasma parameters of interest.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Accelerating quantum optics experiments with statistical learning

Quantum optics experiments, involving the measurement of low-probability photon events, are known to be extremely time-consuming. We present a methodology for accelerating such experiments using physically motivated ansatzes together with simple statistical learning techniques such as Bayesian maximum a posteriori estimation based on few-shot data. We show that it is possible to reconstruct time-dependent data using a small number of detected photons, allowing for fast estimates in under a minute and providing a one-to-two order of magnitude speed-up in data acquisition time. We test our approach using real experimental data to retrieve the second order intensity correlation function, G (2) ($τ$), as a function of time delay τ between detector counts, for thermal light as well as anti-bunched light emitted by a quantum dot driven by periodic laser pulses. The proposed methodology has a wide range of applicability and has the potential to impact the scientific discovery process across a multitude of domains.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗