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At least 235 records · Page 13

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DOE OSTI2020

A global model–measurement evaluation of particle light scattering coefficients at elevated relative humidity

The uptake of water by atmospheric aerosols has a pronounced effect on particle light scattering properties, which in turn are strongly dependent on the ambient relative humidity (RH). Earth system models need to account for the aerosol water uptake and its influence on light scattering in order to properly capture the overall radiative effects of aerosols. Here we present a comprehensive model–measurement evaluation of the particle light scattering enhancement factor f(RH), defined as the particle light scattering coefficient at elevated RH (here set to 85 %) divided by its dry value. The comparison uses simulations from 10 Earth system models and a global dataset of surface-based in situ measurements. In general, we find a large diversity in the magnitude of predicted f(RH) amongst the different models, which can not be explained by the site types. Based on our evaluation of sea salt scattering enhancement and simulated organic mass fraction, there is a strong indication that differences in the model parameterizations of hygroscopicity and model chemistry are driving at least some of the observed diversity in simulated f(RH). Additionally, a key point is that defining dry conditions is difficult from an observational point of view and, depending on the aerosol, may influence the measured f(RH). The definition of dry also impacts our model evaluation, because several models exhibit significant water uptake between RH = 0 % and 40 %. The multisite average ratio between model outputs and measurements is 1.64 when RH = 0 % is assumed as the model dry RH and 1.16 when RH = 40 % is the model dry RH value. The overestimation by the models is believed to originate from the hygroscopicity parameterizations at the lower RH range which may not implement all phenomena taking place (i.e., not fully dried particles and hysteresis effects). This will be particularly relevant when a location is dominated by a deliquescent aerosol such as sea salt. Our results emphasize the need to consider the measurement conditions in such comparisons and recognize that measurements referred to as dry may not be dry in model terms. Recommendations for future model–measurement evaluation and model improvements are provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

An Analysis of Future Wind Energy Resources and Cost Uncertainties Across the United States

Wind power is a growing source of energy generation that relies on complex global atmospheric and earth system processes. There has been evidence of reductions in average wind speeds over land in North America since the 1980s, and several models project that average wind speeds will continue to decrease. Concurrently, the cost of wind energy systems in the United States has been decreasing since around 2010, a trend also projected to continue. There is considerable uncertainty in these future projections, with quantitative estimates of future wind resource and system costs varying widely. To study this, we run wind energy models with possible future system costs, turbine designs, and meteorological inputs from multiple downscaled earth system models over the contiguous United States. Changes in mean annual energy production from 2000-2019 to 2040-2059 can be as high as +10% in South Texas or as low as -20% in Iowa. Larger turbines and moderate reductions in system costs can offset the largest projected decreases in wind resource, but much uncertainty remains in the extent to which wind resources will change and to what extent system costs can be reduced. An analysis of variance shows, in several states in the Midwest, uncertainty in future wind resources can influence the cost of wind energy nearly as much as uncertainty in future system costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating turbulence models at high energy densities

The RESHOCK campaign at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has been working on increasing our understanding of the evolution of turbulent, unstable plasma interfaces which are applicable in various HED applications including ICF implosions. A common approach to model such interfaces involves the use of Renolds-Averaged-Navier-Stokes (RANS) models whose parameters have been constrained by theory and experiments. These parameter sets are not unique and the applicability of one set of tuned model parameters to systems with differing shock strengths or material densities has not been well tested. Our new NIF experiments, along with related studies of turbulent shear flows, provide data and model validation for plasma interfaces in the HED regime. Our experiments measure mixing-layer width at an unstable interface in the plasma regime and are specifically designed to challenge mix models of the Reynolds-Averaged-Navier-Stokes (RANS) type where turbulence is assumed to be fully developed, i.e. the flow exhibits a broad spectrum of length scales without memory of the initial condition.4 We utilize precise control of the initial interface conditions (densities on both sides of the interface, an initial rippled perturbation pattern consisting of equally weighted wavelengths between 10 and 20 microns, and initial material compositions) along with a repeatable drive history

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

The effects of bias, drift, and trends in calculating anomalies for evaluating skill of seasonal-to-decadal initialized climate predictions

In initialized seasonal to decadal (S2D) predictions, model hindcasts rapidly drift away from the initial observed state and converge toward a preferred state characterized by systematic error, or bias. Bias and drift are among the greatest challenges facing initialized prediction today. Differences in trends between initial states and drifted states, combined with bias and drift, introduce complexities in calculating anomalies to assess skill of initialized predictions. We examine several methods of calculating anomalies using the Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) initialized hindcasts and focus on Pacific and Atlantic SSTs to illustrate issues with anomaly calculations. Three methods of computing anomalies, one as differences from a long term model climatology, another as bias-adjusted differences from the previous 15 year average from observations, and a third as differences from the previous 15 year average from the model, are contrasted and each is shown to have limitations. For the first, trends in bias and drift introduce higher skill estimates earlier and later in the hindcast period due to the trends that contribute to skill. For the second, higher skill can be introduced in situations where low frequency variability in the observations is large compared to the hindcasts on timescales greater than 15 years, while lower skill can result if the predicted signal is small and the bias-correction itself produces a transition of SST anomalies to the opposite sign of those that are observed. The third method has somewhat lower skill compared to each of the others, but has less difficulties with not only the long term trends in the model climatology, but also with the unrealistic situational skill from using observations as a reference. However, the first 15 years of the hindcast period cannot be evaluated due to having to wait to accumulate the previous 15 year model climatology before the method can be applied. Here, the IPO transition in the 2014–2016 time frame from negative to positive (predicted by Meehl et al. in in Nat Commun, 10.1038/NCOMMS11718, 2016) did indeed verify using all three methods, though each provides somewhat different skill values as a result of the respective limitations. There is no clear best method, as all are roughly comparable, and each has its own set of limitations and caveats. However, all three methods show generally higher overall skill in the AMO region compared to the IPO region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model Reduction for Inverters With Current Limiting and Dispatchable Virtual Oscillator Control

Not provided.

Energy & Fuels↗

DOE OSTI2023

Piezoelectric Energy Harvesting Gyroscopes: Comparative Modeling and Effectiveness

Given its versatility in drawing power from many sources in the natural world, piezoelectric energy harvesting (PEH) has become increasingly popular. However, its energy harvesting capacities could be enhanced further. Here, a mathematical model that accurately simulates the dynamic behavior and energy harvested can facilitate further improvements in the performance of piezoelectric devices. One of the goals of this study is to create a dependable reduced-order model of a multi-purpose gyroscope. This model will make it possible to compute the harvested voltage and electrical power in a semi-analytical manner. The harvested voltage is often modeled as an average value across the whole electrode surface in piezoelectric devices. We propose a model which provides practical insights toward optimizing the performance of the system by considering a spatially varying electric field across the electrode surface length. Our framework allows investigation of the limits of applicability of the modeling assumptions across a range of load resistances. The differential quadrature method (DQM) provides the basis for the suggested numerical solution. The model is also employed to examine energy harvesting under various resistance loads. The newly developed spatially varying model is evaluated for open- and closed-circuit conditions and is proved to be accurate for various values of load resistance that have not previously been considered. The results show that using a spatially varying model is more versatile when modeling the performance of the piezoelectric multifunctional energy harvester. The performance may be accurately captured by the model for load resistances ranging between 103 Ω and 108 Ω. At optimum load resistance and near 65 KHz, the maximum power output predicted by the spatially varying (SV) model is 1.3 mV, 1.5 mV for the open-circuit (OC) model, and 2.1 mV for the closed circuit (CE) model. At a high-load resistance, the SV and OC models all predict the maximum power output to be 1.9 mV while the CE model predicted the maximum voltage to be 3 mV.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Two-temperature effects in Hall-MHD simulations of the HIT-SI experiment

A two-temperature Hall-magnetohydrodynamic (Hall-MHD) model, which evolves the electron and ion temperatures separately, is implemented in the PSI-Tet 3D MHD code and used to model plasma dynamics in the Helicity Injected Torus–Steady Inductive (HIT-SI) experiment. The two-temperature model is utilized for HIT-SI simulations in both the PSI-Tet and NIMROD codes at a number of different injector frequencies in the 14.5–68.5 kHz range. At all frequencies, the NIMROD two-temperature model results in increased toroidal current, lower chord-averaged density, higher average temperatures, outward radial shift of the current centroid, and axial symmetrization of the current centroid, relative to the single-temperature NIMROD simulations. The two-temperature PSI-Tet model illustrates similar trends, but at high frequency operation, it exhibits lower electron temperature, smaller toroidal current, and decreased axial symmetrization with respect to the single-temperature PSI-Tet model. With all models, average temperatures and toroidal currents increase with the injector frequency. Power balance and heat fluxes to the wall are calculated for the two-temperature PSI-Tet model and illustrate considerable viscous and compressive heating, particularly at high injector frequency. Parameter scans are also presented for artificial diffusivity, wall temperature, and density. Both artificial diffusivity and the density boundary condition significantly modify the plasma density profiles, leading to larger average temperatures, toroidal current, and relative density fluctuations at low densities. As a result, a low density simulation achieves sufficiently high current gain (G > 5) to generate significant volumes of closed flux lasting 1–2 injector periods.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Partner with a Third-Party Delivery Service or Not? A Prediction-and-Decision Tool for Restaurants Facing Takeout Demand Surges During a Pandemic

Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, restaurants become more reliant on no-contact pick-up or delivery ways for serving customers. As a result, they need to make tactical planning decisions such as whether to partner with online platforms, to form their own delivery team, or both. In this paper, we develop an integrated prediction-decision model to analyze the profit of combining the two approaches and to decide the needed number of drivers under stochastic demand. We first use the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model to forecast future infected cases in a given region and then construct an autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) regression model to predict food-ordering demand. Using predicted demand samples, we formulate a stochastic integer program to optimize food delivery plans. We conduct numerical studies using COVID-19 data and food-ordering demand data collected from local restaurants in Nuevo Leon, Mexico, from April to October 2020, to show results for helping restaurants build contingency plans under rapid market changes. Our method can be used under unexpected demand surges, various infection/vaccination status, and demand patterns. Here, our results show that a restaurant can benefit from partnering with third-party delivery platforms when (i) the subscription fee is low, (ii) customers can flexibly decide whether to order from platforms or from restaurants directly, (iii) customers require more efficient delivery, (iv) average delivery distance is long, or (v) demand variance is high.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Pervasive Warming Bias in CMIP6 Tropospheric Layers

Abstract The tendency of climate models to overstate warming in the tropical troposphere has long been noted. Here we examine individual runs from 38 newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6) models and show that the warm bias is now observable globally as well. We compare CMIP6 runs against observational series drawn from satellites, weather balloons, and reanalysis products. We focus on the 1979–2014 interval, the maximum span for which all observational products are available and for which models were run using historically observed forcings. For lower‐troposphere and midtroposphere layers both globally and in the tropics, all 38 models overpredict warming in every target observational analog, in most cases significantly so, and the average differences between models and observations are statistically significant. We present evidence that consistency with observed warming would require lower model Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) values.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Toward an improved estimate of climate sensitivity and its application to key climate metrics (Final Report)

The tendency of climate models to overstate warming in the tropical troposphere has long been noted. Here we examine individual runs from 38 newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6) models and show that the warm bias is now observable globally as well. We compare CMIP6 runs against observational series drawn from satellites, weather balloons, and reanalysis products. We focus on the 1979–2014 interval, the maximum span for which all observational products are available and for which models were run using historically observed forcings. For lower-troposphere and midtroposphere layers both globally and in the tropics, all 38 models overpredict warming in every target observational analog, in most cases significantly so, and the average differences between models and observations are statistically significant. We present evidence that consistency with observed warming would require lower model Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) values.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Toward an improved estimate of climate sensitivity and its application to key climate metrics (Final Report)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of atom resolvability in cryo-EM maps with Q-scores

Cryogenic electron microscopy (cryo-EM) maps are now at the point where resolvability of individual atoms can be achieved. However, resolvability is not necessarily uniform throughout the map. We introduce a quantitative parameter to characterize the resolvability of individual atoms in cryo-EM maps, the map Q-score. Q-scores can be calculated for atoms in proteins, nucleic acids, water, ligands and other solvent atoms, using models fitted to or derived from cryo-EM maps. Q-scores can also be averaged to represent larger features such as entire residues and nucleotides. Averaged over entire models, Q-scores correlate very well with the estimated resolution of cryo-EM maps for both protein and RNA. Here, assuming the models they are calculated from are well fitted to the map, Q-scores can be used as a measure of resolvability in cryo-EM maps at various scales, from entire macromolecules down to individual atoms. Q-score analysis of multiple cryo-EM maps of the same proteins derived from different laboratories confirms the reproducibility of structural features from side chains down to water and ion atoms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The skin microbiome of elasmobranchs follows phylosymbiosis, but in teleost fishes, the microbiomes converge

Background: The vertebrate clade diverged into Chondrichthyes (sharks, rays, and chimeras) and Osteichthyes fishes (bony fishes) approximately 420 mya, with each group accumulating vast anatomical and physiological differences, including skin properties. The skin of Chondrichthyes fishes is covered in dermal denticles, whereas Osteichthyes fishes are covered in scales and are mucous rich. The divergence time among these two fish groups is hypothesized to result in predictable variation among symbionts. Here, using shotgun metagenomics, we test if patterns of diversity in the skin surface microbiome across the two fish clades match predictions made by phylosymbiosis theory. In this work, we hypothesize (1) the skin microbiome will be host and clade-specific, (2) evolutionary difference in elasmobranch and teleost will correspond with a concomitant increase in host-microbiome dissimilarity, and (3) the skin structure of the two groups will affect the taxonomic and functional composition of the microbiomes. Results: We show that the taxonomic and functional composition of the microbiomes is host-specific. Teleost fish had lower average microbiome within clade similarity compared to among clade comparison, but their composition is not different among clade in a null based model. Elasmobranch’s average similarity within clade was not different than across clade and not different in a null based model of comparison. In the comparison of host distance with microbiome distance, we found that the taxonomic composition of the microbiome was related to host distance for the elasmobranchs, but not the teleost fishes. In comparison, the gene function composition was not related to the host-organism distance for elasmobranchs but was negatively correlated with host distance for teleost fishes. Conclusion: Our results show the patterns of phylosymbiosis are not consistent across both fish clades, with the elasmobranchs showing phylosymbiosis, while the teleost fish are not. The discrepancy may be linked to alternative processes underpinning microbiome assemblage, including possible historical host-microbiome evolution of the elasmobranchs and convergent evolution in the teleost which filter specific microbial groups. Our comparison of the microbiomes among fishes represents an investigation into the microbial relationships of the oldest divergence of extant vertebrate hosts and reveals that microbial relationships are not consistent across evolutionary timescales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Self-consistent, high-order spatial profiles in a model for two-fluid turbulent mixing

A Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes model is presented with the property that it admits self-consistent, high-order spatial profiles in simulations of two-fluid turbulent mixing layers. Whereas previous models have been limited by the assumption of a linear mixing profile, the present paper relaxes this assumption and, as a result, is shown to achieve much better agreement with experimental profiles. Similarity analysis is presented to derive constraints on model coefficients to enforce desired self-similar growth rates that are fully consistent with the high-order spatial profiles. Through this similarity analysis, it is shown that care must be taken in model construction, as it is possible to construct certain terms in such a way as to leave growth rates unconstrained. This model, termed the k-Φ-L-a-V model, is then applied in simulations of Rayleigh-Taylor, Richtmyer-Meshkov, and Kelvin-Helmholtz mixing layers. Overall, these simulations confirm that the expected growth parameters are recovered and high-order spatial profiles are maintained.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2026

wa-hls4ml: A Benchmark and Surrogate Models for hls4ml Resource and Latency Estimation

As machine learning (ML) is increasingly implemented in hardware to address real-time challenges in scientific applications, the development of advanced toolchains has significantly reduced the time required to iterate on various designs. These advancements have solved major obstacles, but also exposed new challenges. For example, processes that were not previously considered bottlenecks, such as hardware synthesis, are becoming limiting factors in the rapid iteration of designs. To mitigate these emerging constraints, multiple efforts have been undertaken to develop an ML-based surrogate model that estimates resource usage of ML accelerator architectures. We introduce wa-hls4ml, a benchmark for ML accelerator resource and latency estimation, and its corresponding initial dataset of over 680,000 fully connected and convolutional neural networks, all synthesized using hls4ml and targeting Xilinx FPGAs. The benchmark evaluates the performance of resource and latency predictors against several common ML model architectures, primarily originating from scientific domains, as exemplar models, and the average performance across a subset of the dataset. Additionally, we introduce GNN- and transformer-based surrogate models that predict latency and resources for ML accelerators. We present the architecture and performance of the models and find that the models generally predict latency and resources for the 75% percentile within several percent of the synthesized resources on the synthetic test dataset.

Hawks, Benjamin [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000157000288↗

DOE OSTI2025

wa-hls4ml: A Benchmark and Surrogate Models for hls4ml Resource and Latency Estimation

As machine learning (ML) is increasingly implemented in hardware to address real-time challenges in scientific applications, the development of advanced toolchains has significantly reduced the time required to iterate on various designs. These advancements have solved major obstacles, but also exposed new challenges. For example, processes that were not previously considered bottlenecks, such as hardware synthesis, are becoming limiting factors in the rapid iteration of designs. To mitigate these emerging constraints, multipleefforts have been undertaken to develop an ML-based surrogate model that estimates resource usage of synthesized ML accelerator architectures. We introduce wa-hls4ml, a benchmark for ML accelerator resource and latency estimation, and its corresponding initial dataset of over 680 000 fully connected and convolutional neural networks, all synthesized using hls4ml and targeting Xilinx FPGAs. The benchmark evaluates the performance of resource and latency predictors against several common ML model architectures, primarily originating from scientific domains, as exemplar models, and the average performance across a subset of the dataset. Additionally, we introduce GNN- and transformer-based surrogate models that predict latency and resources for ML accelerators. We present the architecture and performance of the models and find that the models generally predict latency and resources for the 75% percentile within several percent of the synthesized resources on the synthetic test dataset.

Hawks, Benjamin G. [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2022

Indirect Tool Condition Monitoring Using Ensemble Machine Learning Techniques

Abstract Tool condition monitoring (TCM) has become a research area of interest due to its potential to significantly reduce manufacturing costs while increasing process visibility and efficiency. Machine learning (ML) is one analysis technique which has demonstrated advantages for TCM applications. However, the commonly studied individual ML models lack generalizability to new machining and environmental conditions, as well as robustness to the unbalanced datasets which are common in TCM. Ensemble ML models have demonstrated superior performance in other fields, but have only begun to be evaluated for TCM. As a result, it is not well understood how their TCM performance compares to that of individual models, or how homogeneous and heterogeneous ensemble models’ performances compare to one another. To fill in these research gaps, milling experiments were conducted using various cutting conditions, and the model groups were compared across several performance metrics. Statistical t-tests were also used to evaluate the significance of model performance differences. Through the analysis of four individual ML models and five ensemble models, all based on the processes’ sound, spindle power, and axial load signals, it was found that on average, the ensemble models performed better than the individual models, and that the homogeneous ensembles outperformed the heterogeneous ensembles.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2022

Detailing cloud property feedbacks with a regime-based decomposition

Here, we report diagnosing the root causes of cloud feedback in climate models and reasons for inter-model disagreement is a necessary first step in understanding their wide variation in climate sensitivities. Here we bring together two analysis techniques that illuminate complementary aspects of cloud feedback. The first quantifies feedbacks from changes in cloud amount, altitude, and optical depth, while the second separates feedbacks due to cloud property changes within specific cloud regimes from those due to regime occurrence frequency changes. We find that in the global mean, shortwave cloud feedback averaged across ten models comes solely from a positive within-regime cloud amount feedback countered slightly by a negative within-regime optical depth feedback. These within-regime feedbacks are highly uniform: In nearly all regimes, locations, and models, cloud amount decreases and cloud albedo increases with warming. In contrast, global-mean across-regime components vary widely across models but are very small on average. This component, however, is dominant in setting the geographic structure of the shortwave cloud feedback: Thicker, more extensive cloud types increase at the expense of thinner, less extensive cloud types in the extratropics, and vice versa at low latitudes. The prominent negative extratropical optical depth feedback has contributions from both within- and across-regime components, suggesting that thermodynamic processes affecting cloud properties as well as dynamical processes that favor thicker cloud regimes are important. The feedback breakdown presented herein may provide additional targets for observational constraints by isolating cloud property feedbacks within specific regimes without the obfuscating effects of changing dynamics that may differ across timescales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗