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At least 235 records · Page 13

Improved Dust Representation and Impacts on Dust Transport and Radiative Effect in CAM5

Dust transport and spatial distribution are poorly represented in current global climate models (GCMs) including the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Particularly, models lack explicit representation of super-coarse dust, which may have important implications for dust radiative forcing and impacts on biogeochemistry. A nine-mode version of the modal aerosol model (MAM9) has been developed to address these issues. In this new aerosol scheme, four dust modes have been designed to treat dust particles of sizes up to 20 μm. The MAM9-simulated results are compared with those from the default four-mode version of MAM (MAM4) and also with the in situ surface measurements of dust concentration and deposition flux, satellite-retrieved dust extinction profile, and in situ vertical measurements of dust concentrations from the NASA Atmosphere Tomography Mission (ATom). Overall, MAM9 improves the dust representation in remote regions while maintaining reasonably good results near the dust source regions. In addition, MAM9 reduces the fine dust burden and increases the coarse dust burden globally. The increased coarse dust burden has slightly increased the dust direct radiative effect by 0.01 W m –2 while it enhanced dust indirect radiative effect by 0.36 W m –2 , globally.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

QUIC-fire: A fast-running simulation tool for prescribed fire planning

Coupled fire-atmospheric modeling tools are increasingly used to understand the complex and dynamic behavior of wildland fires. Multiple research tools linking combustion to fluid flow use Navier-Stokes numerical solutions coupled to a thermodynamic model to understand fire-atmospheric feedbacks, but these computational fluid dynamics approaches require high-performance computing resources. We present a new simulation tool called QUIC-Fire to rapidly solve these feedbacks by coupling the mature 3-D rapid wind solver QUIC-URB to a physics-based cellular automata fire spread model Fire-CA. QUIC-Fire uses 3-D fuels inputs similar to the CFD model FIRETEC, allowing this tool to simulate effects of fuel structure on local winds and fire behavior. Results comparing fire behavior metrics to the computational fluid dynamic model FIRETEC show strong agreement. As a result, QUIC-Fire is the first tool intended to provide an opportunity for prescribed fire planners to compare, evaluate and design burn plans, including complex ignition patterns and coupled fire atmospheric feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Separating Physics and Dynamics Grids for Improved Computational Efficiency in Spectral Element Earth System Models

Previous studies have shown that atmospheric models with a spectral element grid can benefit from putting physics calculations on a relatively coarse finite volume grid. Here we demonstrate an alternative high-order, element-based mapping approach used to implement a quasi-equal-area, finite volume physics grid in E3SM. Unlike similar methods, the new method in E3SM requires topology data purely local to each spectral element, which trivially allows for regional mesh refinement. Simulations with physics grids defined by 2 × 2, 3 × 3, and 4 × 4 divisions of each element are shown to verify that the alternative physics grid does not qualitatively alter the model solution. The model performance is substantially affected by the reduction of physics columns when using the 2 × 2 grid, which can increase the throughput of physics calculations by roughly 60%–120% depending on whether the computational resources are configured to maximize throughput or efficiency. A pair of regionally refined cases are also shown to highlight the refinement capability.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Climate Forcing and Trends of Organic Aerosols in the Community Earth System Model (CESM2)

The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) includes three main atmospheric configurations: the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) with simplified chemistry and a simplified organic aerosol (OA) scheme, CAM6 with comprehensive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry representation (CAM6-chem), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6). Both, CAM6-chem and WACCM6 include a more comprehensive secondary organic aerosols (SOA) approach using the volatility basis set (vbs) scheme and prognostic stratospheric aerosols. This paper describes the different OA schemes available in the different atmospheric configurations of CESM2 and discusses differences in aerosol burden and resulting climate forcings. Derived OA burden and trends differ due to differences in OA formation using the different approaches. Regional differences in Aerosol Optical Depth with larger values using the comprehensive approach occur over SOA source regions. Stronger increasing SOA trends between 1960 and 2015 in WACCM6 compared to CAM6 are due to increasing biogenic emissions aligned with increasing surface temperatures. Using the comprehensive SOA approach further leads to improved comparisons to aircraft observations and SOA formation of ˜143 Tg/yr. We further use WACCM6 to identify source contributions of OA from biogenic, fossil fuel, and biomass burning emissions, to quantify SOA amounts and trends from these sources. Increasing SOA trends between 1960 and 2015 are the result of increasing biogenic emissions aligned with increasing surface temperatures. Biogenic emissions are at least two thirds of the total SOA burden. In addition, SOA source contributions from fossil fuel emissions become more important, with largest values over Southeast Asia. The estimated total anthropogenic forcing of OA in WACCM6 for 1995–2010 conditions is -0.43 W/m2, mostly from the aerosol direct effect.

Tilmes, S↗

Effects of marine organic aerosols as sources of immersion-mode ice-nucleating particles on high-latitude mixed-phase clouds

Mixed-phase clouds are frequently observed in high-latitude regions and have important impacts on the surface energy budget and regional climate. Marine organic aerosol (MOA), a natural source of aerosol emitted over ~70 % of Earth's surface, may significantly modify the properties and radiative forcing of mixed-phase clouds. However, the relative importance of MOA as a source of ice-nucleating particles (INPs) in comparison to mineral dust, and MOA's effects as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and INPs on mixed-phase clouds are still open questions. In this study, we implement MOA as a new aerosol species into the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmosphere component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), and allow the treatment of aerosol–cloud interactions of MOA via droplet activation and ice nucleation. CAM6 reproduces observed seasonal cycles of marine organic matter at Mace Head and Amsterdam Island when the MOA fraction of sea spray aerosol in the model is assumed to depend on sea spray biology but fails when this fraction is assumed to be constant. Model results indicate that marine INPs dominate primary ice nucleation below 400 hPa over the Southern Ocean and Arctic boundary layer, while dust INPs are more abundant elsewhere. By acting as CCN, MOA exerts a shortwave cloud forcing change of -2.78 W m-2 over the Southern Ocean in the austral summer. By acting as INPs, MOA enhances the longwave cloud forcing by 0.35 W m-2 over the Southern Ocean in the austral winter. The annual global mean net cloud forcing changes due to CCN and INPs of MOA are -0.35 and 0.016 W m-2, respectively. These findings highlight the vital importance for Earth system models to consider MOA as an important aerosol species for the interactions of biogeochemistry, hydrological cycle, and climate change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Energy Research and Forecasting (ERF) v1

ERF is a next-generation regional atmospheric modeling code for simulation mesoscale atmospheric flows. Its capabilities include the ability to model advection, diffusion, turbulence, terrain and moisture physics.

Almgren, Ann↗

Kinetic Modeling of Secondary Organic Aerosol in a Weather-Chemistry Model: Parameterizations, Processes, and Predictions for GOAmazon

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) forms and evolves in the atmosphere through many pathways and processes, over diverse spatial and time scales. Hence, there is a need to represent these widely-varying kinetic processes in large-scale atmospheric models to allow for accurate predictions of the abundance, properties, and impacts of SOA. In this work, we integrated a kinetic, process-level model (simpleSOM-MOSAIC) into a weather-chemistry model (WRF-Chem) to simulate the oxidation chemistry and microphysics of atmospheric SOA. simpleSOM-MOSAIC simulates multigenerational gas-phase chemistry, autoxidation reactions, heterogeneous oxidation, oligomerization, and phase-state-influenced gas/particle partitioning of SOA. As a case study, the integrated WRF-Chem-simpleSOM-MOSAIC (WC-SSM) model was used to simulate the photochemical evolution downwind of a large city (Manaus, Brazil) in the Amazon and, in turn, study the anthropogenic and biogenic interactions in an otherwise pristine environment. Consistent with previous work, we found that OA was enhanced by up to a factor of four in the urban plume due to elevated hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations, relative to the background, and that this OA was dominated by SOA from biogenic precursors (80%). Further, in addition to accurately simulating the OA enhancement in the urban plume, the model reproduced the magnitude of the OA oxygen-to-carbon (O:C) ratio and broadly tracked the evolution of the aerosol size distribution. Our work highlights the importance of including an integrated, kinetic representation of SOA processes in an atmospheric model

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lithium in T Coronae Borealis

T Coronae Borealis is a recurrent, symbiotic nova system currently in quiescence between its periodic ≈80 yr cycle of eruptions. Observations during inter-outburst epochs provide an opportunity to study properties of the accretion disk and the M red giant. Here we present new irradiated (blackbody veiling) models, incorporating modern molecular opacities and line lists, of spectra derived from high-resolution (22,000 ≲ R ≲ 120,000) optical echelle observations obtained at two epochs, one prior to and one post the 2015 rebrightening event at similar spectroscopic system phase. We find a lithium abundance in the secondary at both epochs to be comparable. The non-irradiated (classical) model atmospheres yield a lithium abundance, A(Li) = 1.3 ± 0.1. The irradiated model (veiled) atmospheres, which are likely a better representation of the system in which the white dwarf and accretion disk illuminate the red giant, give A(Li) = 2.4 ± 0.1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Impact of Ural Blocking on Early Winter Climate Variability Under Different Barents‐Kara Sea Ice Conditions

Abstract Ural blocking (UB) is a prominent mode of variability of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, particularly in fall. It can persist for several days and exert a lagged influence on the wintertime NH circulation, providing predictability at the subseasonal time scale. Using two atmospheric models, we explore how the early winter atmospheric circulation responds to a 2‐week persistent UB anomaly imposed in early November. Experiments are carried out with two different configurations of Barents‐Kara (BK) sea‐ice concentration to examine whether it plays a role in how UB impacts atmospheric variability. In both models, the UB anomaly is followed by a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which lasts up to 2 months after the forcing is released. Interestingly, the response is more persistent under low BK sea‐ice conditions, that is, BK sea ice modulates the atmospheric response to UB. Additional experiments with prescribed sea ice concentration anomalies alone suggest that BK sea ice exerts a limited influence on early winter NH atmospheric variability. The response to UB involves a weakening of the polar vortex that persists longer under low BK sea ice, which explains the more persistent response in that configuration. Our study highlights that UB variability in November is a robust precursor for early winter NAO/polar stratosphere anomalies, and this may be more relevant in the context of declining Arctic sea‐ice extent. Provided that climate models accurately capture this teleconnection, it has the potential to improve subseasonal predictions of the NH wintertime climate.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Assessing Impacts of Waves on Hub-Height Winds off the U.S. West Coast Using Lidar Buoys and Coupled Modeling Approaches

Given the importance of offshore wind energy development to the U.S. clean energy targets, it is vital to be able to characterize the wind resource in that environment accurately. Toward that end, two Bureau of Ocean Energy Management buoys equipped with Doppler lidar are being maintained by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory on behalf of the Department of Energy and deployed to regions of potential offshore wind development. In addition to standard meteorological and oceanographic measurements, the buoys document the wind profile between about 40 m and 250 m above the sea surface through Doppler lidar retrievals. After a multiyear deployment of two buoys along the U.S. East Coast, the buoys were redeployed to the U.S. West coast from 2020 – 2022 to locations near the Humboldt and Morro Bay lease areas. The buoys provide nearly continuous, multiyear datasets that can be used to evaluate predictions of hub-height (~100 m) wind speed for standard atmospheric models in the region. In the absence of measurements at the study site, offshore wind developers rely on model-based data to assess site conditions. Potential sources of model error in this environment include under-resolution or misrepresentation of coastal topographically forced flows, marine boundary layer dynamics and the evolution of their associated cloud and turbulence fields, the role of upwelling and other currents on surface heat fluxes into the boundary layer, and the impact of wave fields on surface momentum fluxes and thus the wind speed profile. In particular, most predictive models of wind speed do not predict wave fields at all, relying on parameterizations to represent their effects. In thus study, we focus on evaluating the role of wind / wave interactions on modeled hub-height wind speed and error by using the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment–Transport Modeling System to capture two-way interactions between an atmospheric model (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)) and a wave model (WAVEWATCHIII (WW3)) and compare to both stand-alone WRF and one-way coupled WRF / WW3 configurations. Our approach is similar to that used in Gaudet et al. (2022) to evaluate wind / wave coupling over the U.S. East Coast, but applied to the very different environment of the U.S. West Coast. We show examples for two cases, a cold-season frontal case and a warm-season low-level jet case. We find that wind / wave coupling makes little impact on model error for these cases at the location of the lidar buoys, for which other misrepresentations of model physics seems to be responsible for model-observation discrepancies. However, domain-wide evaluations, which also make use of the National Buoy Data Center network, show that a two-way coupling approach is less prone to systematic errors in the hub-height wind field than the one-way coupled approach. WRF resolution of kilometer-scale or less is needed to properly capture the sharp wind speed gradients that can be found along the coastline, and WW3 simulations driven by the downscaled WRF produce better bulk and spectral wave fields when compared to observations. Implications of the results for wind resource characterization are then discussed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

On the estimation of boundary layer heights: a machine learning approach

Abstract. The planetary boundary layer height (zi) is a key parameter used in atmospheric models for estimating the exchange of heat, momentum, and moisture between the surface and the free troposphere. Near-surface atmospheric and subsurface properties (such as soil temperature, relative humidity, etc.) are known to have an impact on zi. Nevertheless, precise relationships between these surface properties and zi are less well known and not easily discernible from the multi-year dataset. Machine learning approaches, such as random forest (RF), which use a multi-regression framework, help to decipher some of the physical processes linking surface-based characteristics to zi. In this study, a 4-year dataset from 2016 to 2019 at the Southern Great Plains site is used to develop and test a machine learning framework for estimating zi. Parameters derived from Doppler lidars are used in combination with over 20 different surface meteorological measurements as inputs to a RF model. The model is trained using radiosonde-derived zi values spanning the period from 2016 through 2018 and then evaluated using data from 2019. Results from 2019 showed significantly better agreement with the radiosonde compared to estimates derived from a thresholding technique using Doppler lidars only. Noteworthy improvements in daytime zi estimates were observed using the RF model, with a 50 % improvement in mean absolute error and an R2 of greater than 85 % compared to the Tucker method zi. We also explore the effect of zi uncertainty on convective velocity scaling and present preliminary comparisons between the RF model and zi estimates derived from atmospheric models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗