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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Risk of Mortality in Family Members of Men Seeking Fertility Assessment

Objective: To assess mortality in family members of men seeking fertility assessment. Subfertility serves as a biomarker for overall somatic health, and poor semen quality is associated with increased risk of hospitalization and mortality from chronic conditions. However, it is unclear if these risks extend to family members of men with low sperm count. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Subjects: Family members, up to third-degree relatives, of men in the Subfertility, Health and Assisted Reproduction and the Environment cohort who underwent a semen analysis as part of a fertility assessment 1996–2017. Relatives of men with a recorded total sperm count who lived in Utah for ≥1 year 1904–2017 were included in the analysis (N = 22,280 families). Exposure: Individuals were classified by family membership. Families were classified as relatives of azoospermic (0M), oligozoospermic (<39M), or normozoospermic (≥39M) men. The average total sperm count of the proband (male relative) with fertility assessment was also included as a continuous exposure measure. Main Outcome Measures: The main outcomes were all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk by sex, age, and degree of relation: first-, second-, and third-degree. Cox proportional hazard models were used to test the association between fertility classification and mortality, controlling for sex, race/ethnicity, and birth year. Results: A total of 666,437 relatives of men with fertility assessment (N deaths = 183,974) were included in the analysis. Relative to normozoospermia families, all-cause mortality risk increased in oligozoospermia families (hazard ratio [HR] oligozoospermia , 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01–1.05). Close relatives, first- (HR oligozoospermia , 1.17; 95% CI, 1.07–1.28) and second-degree relatives (HR azoospermia , 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04–1.20; HR oligozoospermia , 1.05; 95% CI,1.01–1.09), of azoospermic and oligozoospermic men had the highest all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk, including death attributed to cardiovascular disease or congenital birth conditions. Conclusion: Our results suggest that familial all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk differ by fertility phenotype. Families of azoospermic and oligozoospermic men showed significantly increased risk, particularly for close relatives. This study provides further evidence that shared genetic and/or environmental factors could influence both fertility and somatic health.

Male fertility↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning approaches for influenza A virus risk assessment identifies predictive correlates using ferret model in vivo data

In vivo assessments of influenza A virus (IAV) pathogenicity and transmissibility in ferrets represent a crucial component of many pandemic risk assessment rubrics, but few systematic efforts to identify which data from in vivo experimentation are most useful for predicting pathogenesis and transmission outcomes have been conducted. To this aim, we aggregated viral and molecular data from 125 contemporary IAV (H1, H2, H3, H5, H7, and H9 subtypes) evaluated in ferrets under a consistent protocol. Three overarching predictive classification outcomes (lethality, morbidity, transmissibility) were constructed using machine learning (ML) techniques, employing datasets emphasizing virological and clinical parameters from inoculated ferrets, limited to viral sequence-based information, or combining both data types. Among 11 different ML algorithms tested and assessed, gradient boosting machines and random forest algorithms yielded the highest performance, with models for lethality and transmission consistently better performing than models predicting morbidity. Comparisons of feature selection among models was performed, and highest performing models were validated with results from external risk assessment studies. Our findings show that ML algorithms can be used to summarize complex in vivo experimental work into succinct summaries that inform and enhance risk assessment criteria for pandemic preparedness that take in vivo data into account.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantitative risk assessment examples for underground hydrogen storage facilities

Hydrogen energy storage can be used to achieve goals of national energy security, renewable energy integration, and grid resilience. Adapting underground natural gas storage facility (UNGSF) infrastructure for underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is one method of storing large quantities of hydrogen that has already largely been proven to work for natural gas. There are currently some underground salt caverns in the United States that are being used for hydrogen storage by commercial entities, but it is still a fairly new concept in that it has not been widely deployed nor has it been done with other geologic formations like depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs. Assessments of UHS systems can help identify and evaluate risks to people both working within the facility and residing nearby. This report provides example risk assessment methodologies and analyses for generic wellhead and processing facility configurations, specifically in the context of the risks of unintentional hydrogen releases into the air. Assessment of the hydrogen containment in the subsurface is also critically important for a safety assessment for a UHS facility, but those geomechanical assessments are not included in this report.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Transportation and Distributed Energy Systems Risk and Feasibility Assessment for Airport Facilities - CRADA 555 (Abstract)

This CRADA presents the strategy that Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) will take to support PDX in performing a risk assessment for several hydrogen deployment scenarios. It is intended that the deployment of hydrogen at PDX could serve several roles, including decarbonizing its bus fleet and building out a distributed energy system which could also be used to facilitate emergency operations. PDX’s initial plans concern replacing their current fleet of 28 busses with FCEBs. To do so, PDX will need to deploy the hydrogen systems needed to support the buses. This includes hydrogen storage, production, delivery, filling, compression, and maintenance. PDX also has long range plans to build a distributed energy system to support normal and resilient operations. This study will investigate the risks of each plan individually, and a combined plan which serves both. Additionally, PDX is in an area with the potential for high seismic activity, as such this work will also include a seismic risk assessment. A detailed risk assessment using PDX as a test case is necessary to ensure the deployment of large-scale hydrogen is successful and to understand the benefits or drawbacks in contrast to electric only technologies. Many technologies have been proposed that claim to utilize hydrogen for both transportation and distributed energy systems; however, these technologies need to be analyzed as they apply to an actual site. The physical infrastructure and hydrogen use cases for PDX will be analyzed, a risk assessment will be performed on the hydrogen infrastructure and distributed energy system. These assessments will be useful for understanding how each of these technologies would perform as applied to a large public facility and public safety. The results of this CRADA, and an impact of the DOE funding, will evaluate hydrogen as a key fuel for PDX and will accelerate by several years availability of hydrogen, fuel cells, and other low-carbon technologies.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Technical Background and Validation Report on the Residential Water Inhalation Risk Calculator Presented in the Risk Assessment Information System

Indoor air quality (IAQ) is critical for human health. Poor IAQ is linked to respiratory issues, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer. Indoor pollutants are emitted by typical household items such as cleaning products, personal care items, building materials, and tap water - an understudied volatile organic compound (VOC) source. This document presents the Residential Water Inhalation Risk Calculator (RWIRC), which estimates daily VOC exposure concentrations from various household water uses, such as showering and dishwashing, to assess exposure risks for the most vulnerable occupant. Integrated into the Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS) and sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE), the calculator divides a house into three compartments: shower, bathroom, and other spaces, accounting for daily water usage patterns and calculating VOC concentrations. Exposure data generated using the calculator can assist health assessors in estimating excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR) and hazard index (HI) from VOC inhalation. Unlike traditional exposure models that utilize Andelman’s constant, the RWIRC continuously assesses variability in VOC concentrations and environmental conditions using differential equations to track VOC concentrations and air exchange between compartments. The calculator also provides unique volatilization fractions for each chemical and appliance, enhancing accuracy of the exposure concentration estimation. The RWIRC is accessible online and allows users to customize parameters (i.e., number of bathrooms, water temperature, and exhaust fan conditions) and input VOC characteristics (i.e., tap water and ambient air concentrations). This document provides a step-by-step guide on implementing the calculator. It also provides comparisons with the ATSDR-SHOWER calculator, using eight VOCs with varying physicochemical properties to reveal differences in algorithms and output concentrations. Simulations also assess how bathroom door positions and exhaust fan usage affect VOC exposure. The calculator results can enhance EPA risk screening levels for inhalation exposure to VOCs from tap water, offering a sophisticated tool for assessing inhalation risks and improving public health protection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

New Mobility Technology Assessment - Benefits, Risks, and Safety

The age of vehicle automation is upon us. The fundamental perception and control technology is maturing as we speak (and write) with robo-taxis proliferating in select US cities. The news cycle is no longer filled with technological skepticism, but rather societal commentary on our collective response and use of the technology. This maturing of the technology is also accompanied by a renaissance in new types of urban movement technology to more effectively link people with goods, services, and employment, particularly in dense development areas where vehicle congestion (even automated vehicles) prevents high quality mobility. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory, through the DOE Clean Energy to Communities (C2C) program has worked with two jurisdictions to assess the benefits, risks, and safety concerns for a new product offering based on suspended cable technology which is fully automated and proposes an aerial network of self-propelled gondolas. The recognized need, independent of the technology, is to fairly assess the benefits of the proposed transportation system, assess its technical maturity, as well as risks and safety concerns. Using this new technology as an example, a technology represented by Swyft Cities, NREL developed a succession of mini-studies that characterized the technical maturity level, assessed the proposed benefits for Greenville, SC, examined the risks involved in moving forward with an emerging mobility technology, and determined the governing safety protocols and standards that are applicable to the space. These mini-case studies, though centered on Swyft Cities aerial automated gondola technology, are highly transferable to any type of new mobility technology and lays out a repeatable process for assessing new technology within an city or community context.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS1972

Technology assessment in the Executive Office of the President

The involvement of the President with technology, directly and indirectly, and the best way in which his responsibilities can be discharged are discussed. Technology assessment is considered essential at all levels of the Executive agencies, but the capacity of the agencies for assessment is limited and needs to be supplemented within the Executive Branch. Complete centralization of technological assessment is felt to be ineffective. The role of the Executive Office in initiating proposals for Presidential action and sustaining links with Congress are outlined, and the apparatus for technology assessment is described, emphasizing the Office of Science and Technology. A significant area of technology assessment for the Executive Office is the field of environmental quality, and the duties of the Environmental Quality Council are summarized. It is suggested that it may be more effective to set up a separate organization for the restoration and protection of the environment and to define the task in terms of what is to be protected rather than in terms of technology.

Kidd, C. V.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Candidates and priorities for technology assessments: A survey of Federal executive agency professionals

A survey was conducted to provide a list of candidates for technology assessment for the purpose of assisting NSF in its role of supporting planning and assessment activities in and out of government. The study was to result in: a list of subjects which survey participants suggested needed technology assessment together with an indication of the frequency of each subject mentioned; suggested criteria for categorization of subjects for assessment; preliminary evaluation of the urgency and of the significance of each candidate based on responses obtained by the survey; and levels of government and agency location for recommended technology assessments.

Reese, H. C.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Environmental assessment of the 40 kilowatt fuel cell system field test operation

This environmental assessment examines the potential environmental consequences, both adverse and beneficial, of the 40 kW fuel cell system system field test operation. The assessment is of necessity generic in nature since actual test sites were not selected. This assessment provides the basis for determining the need for an environmental impact statement. In addition, this assessment provides siting criteria to avoid or minimize negative environmental impacts and standards for determining candidate test sites, if any, for which site specific assessments may be required.

Bollenbacher, G.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Aerothermal modeling, phase 1. Volume 1: Model assessment

Phase 1 was conducted as part of the overall NASA Hot Section Technology (HOST) Program. The purpose of this effort was to determine the predictive accuracy of and the deficiencies within the various analytical modules comprising the overall combustor aerothermal model used at General Electric, as well as to formulate recommendations for improvement where needed. This effort involved the assembly of a benchmark quality data base from selected available literature, and from General Electric engine and combustor component test data. This data base was supplemented with additional definitive data obtained from an experimental test program conducted as part of the Phase 1 effort. Using selections from this data base, assessment studies were conducted to evaluate the various modules. Assessment of the internal flow module was conducted using 2-D parabolic and ellipitic, as well as 3-D elliptic internal flow calculations of definitive test data selected from the assembled data base. The 2-D assessment provided methodical examination of the mathematical techniques and the physical submodules, while the 3-D assessment focused on usefulness as a design tool. Calculations of combustor linear metal temperatures, pressure loss performance, and airflow distribution were performed using aerothermal modules which were in general use for many years at General Electric. The results of these assessment provided for the identification of deficiencies within the modules. The deficiencies were addressed in some detail providing a foundation on which to formulate a prioritized list of recommendations for improvement.

Kenworthy, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Situation assessment in the Paladin tactical decision generation system

Paladin is a real-time tactical decision generator for air combat engagements. Paladin uses specialized knowledge-based systems and other Artificial Intelligence (AI) programming techniques to address the modern air combat environment and agile aircraft in a clear and concise manner. Paladin is designed to provide insight into both the tactical benefits and the costs of enhanced agility. The system was developed using the Lisp programming language on a specialized AI workstation. Paladin utilizes a set of air combat rules, an active throttle controller, and a situation assessment module that have been implemented as a set of highly specialized knowledge-based systems. The situation assessment module was developed to determine the tactical mode of operation (aggressive, defensive, neutral, evasive, or disengagement) used by Paladin at each decision point in the air combat engagement. Paladin uses the situation assessment module; the situationally dependent modes of operation to more accurately represent the complex decision-making process of human pilots. This allows Paladin to adapt its tactics to the current situation and improves system performance. Discussed here are the details of Paladin's situation assessment and modes of operation. The results of simulation testing showing the error introduced into the situation assessment module due to estimation errors in positional and geometric data for the opponent aircraft are presented. Implementation issues for real-time performance are discussed and several solutions are presented, including Paladin's use of an inference engine designed for real-time execution.

Mcmanus, John W.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Ageing airplane repair assessment program for Airbus A300

Summary as a result of a commitment between the FAA and ATA the Airworthiness Assurance Task Force (AATF) steering committee requested the transport aircraft manufacturers to develop a program to assess the repairs on in-service aircraft since recent Supplemental Structural Inspection Programs (SSIP) had not been addressed to assessing repairs. The intent of the assessment program is to remove all existing ambiguities and to achieve a sufficient level of safety across the fleet by applying actual fatigue and damage tolerance criteria defined by FAR 25.571 to repaired structures. A general three stage program has been developed with major aircraft manufacturers and airlines cooperation including area/component classification, repair categorization and inspection/removal requirement establishment which is the basis for model specific repair assessment programs. This paper describes the current status of the repair categorization activities and includes all details about the methodologies developed for determination of the inspection program for the skin on pressurized fuselages. For inspection threshold determination two methods are defined based on fatigue life approach, i.e. a simplified and a detailed method. The detailed method considers 15 different parameters to assess the influences of material, geometry, size, location, aircraft usage and workmanship on the fatigue life of the repair and the original structure. For definition of the inspection intervals a general method is developed which applies to all concerned repairs. For this the initial flaw concept is used by considering 6 parameters and the detectable flaw sizes depending on proposed nondestructive inspection methods. An alternative method is provided for small repairs allowing visual inspection with shorter intervals.

Aging Aircraft↗
NASA NTRS1993

External induced contamination environment assessment for Space Station Freedom

An assessment of the Space Station Freedom performance as affected by the external induced contamination environment is in progress. The assessment procedure involves comparing the Space Station Freedom external contamination requirements, SSP 30426, Revision B (1991), with calculated molecular deposition, molecular column density, and other effects from potential sources of contamination. The current assessment comprises discussions of Space Shuttle proximity operations, Space Shuttle waste-water dumps (while docked to the Space Station), Space Station fluid and waste-gas venting, system gas leakage, external material outgassing, and a combined contamination assessment. This performance assessment indicates that Space Station Freedom contamination requirements are realistic and can be satisfied when all contamination sources are included.

Leger, Lubert↗
NASA NTRS1993

Probabilistic assessment of composite structures

A general computational simulation methodology for an integrated probabilistic assessment of composite structures is discussed and demonstrated using aircraft fuselage (stiffened composite cylindrical shell) structures with rectangular cutouts. The computational simulation was performed for the probabilistic assessment of the structural behavior including buckling loads, vibration frequencies, global displacements, and local stresses. The scatter in the structural response is simulated based on the inherent uncertainties in the primitive (independent random) variables at the fiber matrix constituent, ply, laminate, and structural scales that describe the composite structures. The effect of uncertainties due to fabrication process variables such as fiber volume ratio, void volume ratio, ply orientation, and ply thickness is also included. The methodology has been embedded in the computer code IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures). In addition to the simulated scatter, the IPACS code also calculates the sensitivity of the composite structural behavior to all the primitive variables that influence the structural behavior. This information is useful for assessing reliability and providing guidance for improvement. The results from the probabilistic assessment for the composite structure with rectangular cutouts indicate that the uncertainty in the longitudinal ply stress is mainly caused by the uncertainty in the laminate thickness, and the large overlap of the scatter in the first four buckling loads implies that the buckling mode shape for a specific buckling load can be either of the four modes.

Shiao, Michael E.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Advanced Air Bag Technology Assessment

As a result of the concern for the growing number of air-bag-induced injuries and fatalities, the administrators of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) agreed to a cooperative effort that "leverages NHTSA's expertise in motor vehicle safety restraint systems and biomechanics with NASAs position as one of the leaders in advanced technology development... to enable the state of air bag safety technology to advance at a faster pace..." They signed a NASA/NHTSA memorandum of understanding for NASA to "evaluate air bag to assess advanced air bag performance, establish the technological potential for improved technology (smart) air bag systems, and identify key expertise and technology within the agency (i.e., NASA) that can potentially contribute significantly to the improved effectiveness of air bags." NASA is committed to contributing to NHTSAs effort to: (1) understand and define critical parameters affecting air bag performance; (2) systematically assess air bag technology state of the art and its future potential; and (3) identify new concepts for air bag systems. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) was selected by NASA to respond to the memorandum of understanding by conducting an advanced air bag technology assessment. JPL analyzed the nature of the need for occupant restraint, how air bags operate alone and with safety belts to provide restraint, and the potential hazards introduced by the technology. This analysis yielded a set of critical parameters for restraint systems. The researchers examined data on the performance of current air bag technology, and searched for and assessed how new technologies could reduce the hazards introduced by air bags while providing the restraint protection that is their primary purpose. The critical parameters which were derived are: (1) the crash severity; (2) the use of seat belts; (3) the physical characteristics of the occupants; (4) the proximity of the occupants to the airbag module; (5) the deployment time, which includes the time to sense the need for deployment, the inflator response parameters, the air bag response, and the reliability of the air bag. The requirements for an advanced air bag technology is discussed. These requirements includes that the system use information related to: (1) the crash severity; (2) the status of belt usage; (3) the occupant category; and (4) the proximity to the air bag to adjust air bag deployment. The parameters for the response of the air bag are: (1) deployment time; (2) inflator parameters; and (3) air bag response and reliability. The state of occupant protection advanced technology is reviewed. This review includes: the current safety restraint systems, and advanced technology characteristics. These characteristics are summarized in a table, which has information regarding the technology item, the potential, and an date of expected utilization. The use of technology and expertise at NASA centers is discussed. NASA expertise relating to sensors, computing, simulation, propellants, propulsion, inflatable systems, systems analysis and engineering is considered most useful. Specific NASA technology developments, which were included in the study are: (1) a capacitive detector; (2) stereoscopic vision system; (3) improved crash sensors; (4) the use of the acoustic signature of the crash to determine crash severity; and (5) the use of radar antenna for pre-crash sensing. Information relating to injury risk assessment is included, as is a summary of the areas of the technology which requires further development.

Phen, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Role of Independent Assessment in the International Space Station Program

This paper presents the role of Independent Assessment in the International Space Station (ISS) Program. Independent Assessment is responsible for identifying and specifying technical and programmatic risks that may impact development, launch, and on-orbit assembly and operations of the ISS. The various phases of the assessment process are identified and explained. This paper also outlines current and future participation by Independent Assessment in Human Exploration and Development of Space projects including the X-38 Space Plane, Mars mission scenarios, and applications of Nanotechnology. This paper describes how Independent Assessment helps the shuttle, ISS, and other programs to safely achieve mission goals now and into the next century.

Strachan, Russell L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

An Assessment of the State-of-the-Art in the Design and Manufacturing of Large Composite Structures for Aerospace Vehicles

The results of an assessment of the state-of-the-art in the design and manufacturing of large composite structures are described. The focus of the assessment is on the use of polymeric matrix composite materials for large airframe structural components. such as those in commercial and military aircraft and space transportation vehicles. Applications of composite materials for large commercial transport aircraft, general aviation aircraft, rotorcraft, military aircraft. and unmanned rocket launch vehicles are reviewed. The results of the assessment of the state-of-the-art include a summary of lessons learned, examples of current practice, and an assessment of advanced technologies under development. The results of the assessment conclude with an evaluation of the future technology challenges associated with applications of composite materials to the primary structures of commercial transport aircraft and advanced space transportation vehicles.

Harris, Charles E.↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Relationship Between Fidelity and Learning in Aviation Training and Assessment

Flight simulators can be designed to train pilots or assess their flight performance. Low-Fidelity simulators maximize the initial learning rate of novice pilots and minimize initial costs; whereas, expensive, high-fidelity simulators predict the realworld in-flight performance of expert pilots (Fink & Shriver, 1978 Hays & Singer 1989; Kinkade & Wheaton. 1972). Although intuitively appealing and intellectually convenient to generalize concepts of learning and assessment, what holds true for the role of fidelity in assessment may not always hold true for learning, and vice versa. To bring clarity to this issue, the author distinguishes the role of fidelity in learning from its role in assessment as a function of skill level by applying the hypothesis of Alessi (1988) and reviewing the Laughery, Ditzian, and Houtman (1982) study on simulator validity. Alessi hypothesized that there is it point beyond which one additional unit of flight-simulator fidelity results in a diminished rate of learning. The author of this current paper also suggests the existence of an optimal point beyond which one additional unit of flight-simulator fidelity results in a diminished rate of practical assessment of nonexpert pilot performance.

Noble, Cliff↗